Friday, March 5th Recap

 

Gen.G vs Liiv Sandbox (Net: +6.7895 units)

Come on, I wasn’t NOT going to talk about this one first…

Gen.G surprisingly did NOT play the subs for this one and despite Sandbox’s best efforts to throw back a lead yet again in game one in what was starting to look like an all too familiar story, they managed to finish it. Game two was a complete shellacking.

I mentioned it in the writeup yesterday but the reason I backed Sandbox was basically just that the number was way too big for how talented this team is. You should only see a number like that on a team completely devoid of talent that ALSO is terrible. This was also a classic “look ahead” spot with Gen.G facing Hanwha on Sunday in what will likely be a contest for the #2 seed.

This feels good for Sandbox who really had to get the proverbial monkey off of their back. This team is individually talented, consistently jumping out to leads, and have great objective control rates and they just simply could not stop shooting themselves in the foot. Maybe they get some confidence from this. Summit put in yet another monstrous performance making a case for the best top laner in the LCK. They were capable of performances like this all split and just haven’t been able to close games out. Maybe we see them surge and play spoiler to end the split. Not a team you want to face right now.

I’m not worried about Gen.G just like I wasn’t worried about DAMWON when they got swept by Brion. It happens even to the best teams and again, remember the look ahead angle. Sunday is the most important match of the regular season remaining for them.

Nongshim RedForce vs Hanwha Life Esports (Net: -0.29 units)

Yohan got the start again and had another solid performance for Hanwha.

Hanwha steamrolled game one but game two was interesting.

For those that don’t know, Lillia mid has been picking up some steam as a solo queue counter to certain zone control mage matchups. Her burst movement speed allows her to really punish missed cooldowns against things like Orianna, Azir, Viktor, Veigar, and more. She can then roam. It’s honestly a real pain in the ass to play against. Still, I did NOT expect Chovy to bust this out here and the next level mind games to take that AND take the Olaf away was kind of hilarious to see. We also saw the Janna counter to Rell here.

Nongshim actually jumped out to an early advantage in this one and with the Azir + Aphelios combo vs Hanwha’s heavily tempo-reliant composition things were not looking good for Hanwha Life but Yohan managed to steal the baron. Shortly afterwards Hanwha would destroy Nongshim at the fourth dragon and suddenly a roughly 1000 gold lead was completely deleted and flipped into a Hanwha 3000+ gold lead. The rest was HLE.

I know some people don’t like experimenting like this but I think the picks Hanwha used here are surprisingly powerful selections in the right circumstances and these were PERFECT scenarios for them. That kind of aggression in drafts makes me hopeful that they could be a punch up underdog against the Gen.G’s and DAMWON’s of the world.

Victory Five vs Suning (Net: -0.26 units)

This was infuriating… Victory Five are so good at what they do and just opted to try something completely different this series first with the Seraphine scaling look in game one and again with a more traditional scaling look in game two against Suning. It wasn’t the first time they’ve tried this but generally this was way out of character for them, especially to do it twice in a row. A curveball? Sure. To run it back? I don’t know. This was a critical match for V5 and I’m not sure they’re going to make it to playoffs now. Suning turned in yet another solid series and they’re looking to be back in Worlds form just in time for a playoff push.

eStar vs JD Gaming (Net: -2.5 units)

JDG were in full control of both of these games start to finish. Loken and LvMao had arguably their best series of the season which was a sight for sore eyes after some of the struggles they’ve gone through so far this year.

 

Schalke vs MAD Lions (Net: -0.5 units)

Misfits vs Astralis (Net: +1.0 units)

Rogue vs G2 Esports (Net: -1.0 units)

Vitality vs SK Gaming (Net: -1.2 units)

Fnatic vs Excel (Net: +2.0 units)

 

TSM vs Dignitas (Net: ??)

100 Thieves vs Evil Geniuses (Net: ??)

FlyQuest vs Cloud 9 (Net: ??)

Team Liquid vs Golden Guardians (Net: ??)

Immortals vs CLG (Net: ??)

 

 

LPL Net Total: -2.76 units

LCK Net Total: +6.4995 units

LEC Net Total: +0.3 units

LCS Net Total: +6.25 units (4.24 + 2.01 in parlays)

 

Daily Net Total: 10.2895 units (ROI: +21.02%)

 

Week of March 1st-7th: 20.9145 units (ROI: +14.29%)

 


 

LOL Pro League (China)

Week 7 – Day 6

 

LNG Esports -476 (-1.5 maps @ -133, +1.5 @ -2000)

vs

LGD Gaming +357 (+1.5 maps @ +105, -1.5 @ +811)

 

Map ML Price: LNG -345 / LGD +248

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +145 / under -189)

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -111 / under -118)

Kill Spread: -7.5 @ -122 / +7.5 @ -108 or -8.5 @ +106 / +8.5 @ -139

Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 7.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -114 / under -115)

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

LGD +1.5 maps @ +105 (strong)

LGD series moneyline @ +357 (moderate)

LGD map moneyline @ +248 (moderate)

OVER 2.5 maps @ +145 (moderate)

 

This is an ugly series… So LNG seem to have developed a bit of a reputation as this gatekeeper team, one that beats the teams below them but honestly they’ve struggled against teams like TT and BiliBili despite dispatching eStar and V5 handedly. Against the upper echelon they’ve been smoked every match. LGD are really bad but I’m not entirely sure I trust LNG to “take care of business” as they say.

This is a really big number for a below average team to be laying so you really need to ask yourself just how bad is LGD. These teams have similar kill agnostic economies so if this ends up being a neutral game state for the first twenty minutes or so I actually think this is probably closer than a lot of people think. LNG have not been a good early game team but neither have LGD and LGD actually have the significantly better post-20 gold differential per minute.

So what are the odds this goes along as a quiet early game? If you look ahead to the time totals section, you’ll see it’s projecting for an under although it doesn’t like the price. When LNG wins it’s rather quickly (average 30.29 minutes) and when LGD lose it’s rather quickly (average 29.8 minutes). LNG have been pretty stagnant in the early game and then usually turn the corner through forcing a soul point dragon fight or baron and then they typically win shortly afterward. LGD have been able to force teams to go to the second baron in more than half their games.

I actually think this is the one middle of the table team that LGD have a chance at beating because they’re not a strong early game team that will snowball a lead on them. Also consider that this team really can’t get any worse than what we’ve seen and have been looking like they’re improving at least slightly (until WE smacked them).

I think this is a “dog or pass” situation. I’m definitely not laying this kind of money with a sub-par LNG team. I’m going to take a light play on the dogs here. Hold your nose folks.

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 22.814

Time-Implied: 23.285

Underdog Win: 25.135

“Gelati” Total Projection: 23.161 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total:  41.67% (LNG 50% / LGD 33.33%)

Volatility Rating: LNG 0.31837 / LGD 0.33308  (League Avg: 0.2986)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

LNG team total UNDER 15.5 @ -112 (VERY strong)

(alt) UNDER 24.5 @ -135 (moderate)

(alt) UNDER 22.5 @ +106 (moderate)

UNDER 23.5 @ -114 (moderate)

 

We’re getting a very low total for two of the lowest combined kill per minute teams. Makes sense. I’d probably edge toward the over here just because I think there’s a reasonable chance we go longer than the implied time total we’re seeing here. Neither of these team are particularly fast or explosive in the early game so this could be a snoozer.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 31.319 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 30.91 / 31.2

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 47.73% (LNG 45.45% / LGD 50%)

Volatility Rating: LNG 0.14099 / LGD 0.13546 (League Avg: 0.15805)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none

 

Similarly to above, I think the over would be the play if I had to make one here despite the time per win/loss for these two teams. Pass.

 

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

LGD first dragon @ +108 (VERY strong)

OVER 1.5 barons @ +159 (strong)

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -270 (miniscule)

OVER 4.5 dragons @ -128 (miniscule)

 

This is a classic case of a dragon team (LGD) vs a herald team (LNG). Dragon is a huge value here.

My Picks:

(this moved in our favor slightly while writing, I like it at the posted number still)

Map Spread: LGD +1.5 maps @ +105 (1 unit)

Moneyline: LGD +361 (0.25 units)

Map Spread: LGD -1.5 maps @ +820 (0.1 units)

Prop: Map 1 LGD first dragon @ +108 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 LGD first dragon @ +108 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 3 LGD first dragon @ +108 (1 unit)

 


FunPlus Phoenix -227 (-1.5 maps @ +138, +1.5 @ -667)

vs

RareAtom +184 (+1.5 maps @ -179, -1.5 @ +428)

 

Map ML Price: FPX -182 / RA +142

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +109 / under -139)

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -114 / under -115)

Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -108 / +5.5 @ -122

Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 10.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over +108 / under -141)

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

RareAtom series moneyline @ +184 (moderate)

RareAtom +1.5 maps @ -179 (light)

RareAtom map moneyline @ +142 (light)

OVER 2.5 maps @ +109 (very light)

 

1446.0 Gold Diff @ 10 min 1628.2
861.8 Gold Diff @ 15 min 472.6
70.1 Gold Diff @ 20 min 249.0
119.5 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 61.0
123.5 Gold Diff / min first 20 66.7
767.7 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 367.0
1966.1 Gold /min 1862.1
160.0 Gold / min vs Avg 56.0
227.0 Gold Diff / min 136.7
3.0 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 1.9
1714.2 Kill Agnostic GPM 1683.3
144.7 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 110.6
52.5 Dragon Control % 53.6
63.0 Herald Control % 43.2
68.8 Baron Control % 71.9

If you had to guess which was which just looking at the numbers here, who would you think is RareAtom?

RareAtom have been quietly piecing together a nice resume. They sit at #6 in my power ratings in a tier with Suning and RNG in the economy/objective model. That may seem a little high to a lot of people and perhaps it is, they haven’t had to face the top of the table as much as everyone else. They still have FPX, Invictus, RNG, and EDG. They also have Victory Five and LGD remaining on their backloaded schedule. RareAtom don’t exactly dominate in any one location (except maybe baron % and gold differential at 10 minutes) but they’re significantly above average in every metric besides herald control. I do think this team is actually pretty good but much like EDG and to some extent, RNG, they win “ugly.” Dragon centric and/or scaling style teams are rarely going to dominate the stat sheets. It’s just not what they’re trying to do so we have to consider that when evaluating them.

FPX continue to roll along as if nothing happened with yet another jungler and Beichuan’s Karthus, a pick that China has traditionally shied away from, gives them a ton of leverage in the draft just with the threat of it. Looking at the individual player model, Beichuan is lacking in the vision control categories but has posted a significantly above average gold and gold differential per minute (probably because of the wins) and has the best XP differential per minute in the league by a mile (again, through four games). He’s also more than a full standard deviation about the next best carry efficiency in the league (again, Karthus). Obviously we’re working with a small sample size but the eye test hasn’t shown me any red flags to me but I do wonder how he’ll perform in a situation where vision will be more paramount as he’s mostly just power farmed and let his lanes dominate. The thing is, we’ve seen that work. He might not need to be that good if his lanes are just better than everyone.

This is a tricky handicap. It makes sense to think that eventually these changes will catch up to FPX but I’m honestly in a “until I see it…” mode with this team. Their kill agnostic economy looks the same as it did the rest of the season, one of the best in the world, and they haven’t really faltered other than when Beichuan was tested against arguably the best jungler in the world in Wei. They smoked Kanavi and JDG, and now he gets to face another one of the league’s best in Leyan. What a murderers row to start your career…

The model makes this series roughly -166 / +137 showing a decent value on RareAtom here but I think you need to bake in some positive regression with Beichuan getting more comfortable and with the amount of leverage he brings in the draft compared to most junglers. So maybe we’re somewhere in the middle now. If you look at the individual performances for RareAtom they’re all atop their positions in the league which might come as a surprise. They’re performing even better than they did last season where it looked similar. These aren’t flukey scores tainted by outliers either, this entire team is extremely efficient and all of them do a stellar job in the vision categories, differentials, and damage efficiency.

I’m going to take a small position on the dogs here. For a team like FPX who is going to rely on their lanes to dominate until they grow with Beichuan, RareAtom are actually a uniquely well-equipped team to combat exactly that.

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 28.359

Time-Implied: 27.353

Underdog Win: 27.354

“Gelati” Total Projection: 27.491 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total:  55.435% (FPX 60.97% / RA 50%)

Volatility Rating: FPX 0.26565 / RA 0.27409 (League Avg: 0.2986)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

RA team total OVER 10.5 @ -116 (strong)

FPX team total OVER 15.5 @ -115 (light)

OVER 26.5 kills @ -114 (light)

(alt) OVER 27.5 kills @ +114 (miniscule)

 

High total, high projections, and unfortunately fairly sharp prices. The team totals are less so, I like RareAtom similarly to the model especially since I think they’re a reasonable chance to take this down. They also sometimes struggle to close games out and I could see this as a jump out to an early lead and FPX bring it back type of script. The counterargument is that when you have two teams with obscene gold differentials at ten minutes that it could just explode and be over. I’ll take the RA over for half stake instead of full since I’m already backing them.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 31.625 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 32.35 / 32.43

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 42.59% (FPX 26.09% / RA 59.09%)

Volatility Rating: FPX 0.17122 / RA 0.14587 (League Avg: 0.15805)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none

 

Tough to gauge whether or not these are going to be long, slow games or back-and-forth slugfests. They could easily be a snowball win as well. Pass.

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -286 (VERY strong)

OVER 1.5 barons @ +142 (strong)

FPX first tower @ -135 (moderate)

 

The under 12.5 towers is showing strong because, between the two of these teams, only about 33.5% of games is going over it but they’ve also both done a lot of winning. Given that I think this could be competitive I’m just going to pass although bigger picture that’s one of the best angles on a macro level this season. I actually like the over 1.5 barons and I rarely mess with that market. I doubt we’ll see multiple games steamrolled in this contest with how strong the lanes are for both of these teams. I think there’s a strong chance it’ll take two barons to close this out. Similarly, the over 4.5 dragons I like quite a bit more than my model does as well, again, these teams have been doing a lot of winning but these lanes could make a stomping much less likely.

 

My Picks:

 

Map Spread: RareAtom +1.5 maps @ -179 (1.79 units)

Moneyline: RareAtom +184 (0.5 units)

Map Spread: RareAtom -1.5 maps @ +437 (0.25 units)

Prop: Map 1 OVER 1.5 barons @ +142 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 OVER 1.5 barons @ +147 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 3 OVER 1.5 barons @ +143 (1 unit)

 

 


Royal Never Give Up -108 (+1.5 maps @ -312, -1.5 @ +276)

vs

EDward Gaming -114 (-1.5 maps @ +234, +1.5 @ -385)

 

Map ML Price: RNG -106 / EDG -120

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over -104 / under -122)

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -122 / under -108)

Kill Spread: +1.5 @ -114 / -1.5 @ -115

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 12.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -139 / under +106)

 

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

EDG series moneyline @ -114 (light)

 

How awesome is this Saturday morning slate going to be between the LPL and LCK?

We talked through this one on The Gold Card Podcast this week. You can make a case for either side here. If you think mid+jungle is the tiebreaker then I think Wei and Cryin have the edge although Scout and Jiejie have been no slouches by any stretch. I think EDG have the edge in the bottom lane and Flandre has the edge for EDG in the top lane.

Both of these teams are incredibly intelligent about the game, have outstanding macro, and are both willing to win games ugly. They’re both dragon/scaling style. This is going to be a chess match.

If I had to pick a side here I would go with EDG’s superior outer lanes. The model makes this -140 / +113 , a few % off market showing value on EDG here but I think this is anybody’s ballgame so I’m going to pass and attack this from a different angle.

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 27.836

Time-Implied: 27.061

Underdog Win: 30.028

“Gelati” Total Projection: 27.308 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 36.74% (EDG 31.82% / RNG 41.67%)

Volatility Rating: EDG 0.26634 / RNG 0.29712 (League Avg: 0.2991)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

RNG team total OVER 12.5 kills @ -108 (VERY strong)

(alt) UNDER 27.5 kills @ -143 (strong)

UNDER 26.5 kills @ -120 (moderate)

(alt) UNDER 25.5 kills @ -103 (moderate)

EDG team total OVER 13.5 kills @ -109 (moderate)

 

Expect longer games and you’d think lower kill games but I actually think the kill plays here are more volatile. When you get these big, team-fight oriented, scaling dragon style teams games are either very low kill or very high kill depending on how many people die in the team fights for these objectives. Given the high total I’d lean toward the under here like the model suggests but both of these teams have had increasingly high combined kills per minute as the season goes on with each eclipsing the 0.83 mark in the past two weeks.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 32.901

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 32.9 / 32.84

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 48.48% (EDG 63.64% / RNG 33.33%)

Volatility Rating: EDG 0.1343 / RNG 0.16642 (League Avg: 0.15824)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

UNDER 33:00 @ +106 (light)

 

As I’ve mentioned, you’ve got two slower, dragon/scaling style teams that’s going to favor the over and thus we get a higher price. If this was a juiced 32:00 I’d pay for it but a juiced 33:00 I’m just going to pass. However, this impacts our other wagers.

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

EDG first tower @ -115 (VERY strong)**

RNG first blood @ -112 (strong)*

EDG first blood @ -116 (strong)*

RNG first tower @ -115 (strong)**

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -250 (moderate-strong)

OVER 4.5 dragons @ -172 (moderate)

 

The firsts cancel out as both of these teams are stylistically similar. I don’t like the under 12.5 towers as much as the model although it is interesting because these teams are less worried about early gold injections.

I absolutely love the over 4.5 dragons in this contest. Unless one of these two comes in with a completely different look, which is certainly possible, we’re going to see some cataclysmic fights at dragons in this series and I’d expect a jostling back-and-forth. It’s one of my favorite plays of the day.

 

My Picks:

 

Prop: Map 1 OVER 4.5 dragons @ -172 (1.72 units)

Prop: Map 2 OVER 4.5 dragons @ -167 (1.67 units)

Prop: Map 3 OVER 4.5 dragons @ -167 (1.67 units)

 


LOL Champions Korea

Week 7 – Day 3

 

 

DAMWON Kia Gaming -625 (-1.5 maps @ -164)

vs

Afreeca Freecs +453 (+1.5 maps @ +129, -1.5 @ +1000)

 

Map ML Price: DWG -400 / AF +287

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +168 / under -217)

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -118 / under -111)

Kill Spread: -7.5 @ -119 / +7.5 @ -110

Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 8.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -118 / under -111)

 

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

Afreeca +1.5 maps @ +129 (strong)

Afreeca series moneyline @ +453 (strong)

Afreeca map odds @ +287 (strong)

OVER 2.5 maps @ +168 (strong)

 

My initial “gut” reaction to this number and one we discussed on the podcast this week was “wow… that’s a bit disrespectful to Afreeca” and sure enough the model feels the same way but I wanted to dive a little deeper on this.

Afreeca have been absolutely manhandling early games all season long and punting them away. This is a problem we’ve seen time and time again with a lot of teams and one that will slowly get phased out as these teams become more polished as the season goes along. In their past few series they’ve seemingly remedied this problem to some extent so I think a lot of people, myself included, initially saw this number and let out a collective “wait really?”

Here’s the thing, Afreeca’s overall numbers are still very poor other than their objective control. They also haven’t really beaten any good teams unless you want to count T1 with Clozer, Cuzz, and Canna in week 3. They took a game off of Hanwha and a game off of DRX. They likely could have won game one against DWG the first time around but failed to do so with similarly matched scaling compositions. They got absolutely whooped in game two.

I think Afreeca are almost definitely better than their record but just like last year they can’t beat good teams.

DWG

AF
-193.8 Gold Diff @ 10 min 869.9
237.6 Gold Diff @ 15 min 342.1
-771.6 Gold Diff @ 20 min -28.9
1800.0 GPM first 20 min 1760.0
53.5 Gold Diff / min first 20 23.4
146.6 Gold Diff / min ROG -114.8
1891.7 Gold /min 1779.3
27.0 Gold / min vs Avg 24.0
146.6 Gold Diff / min -16.4
2.0 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -0.2
1838.2 Kill Agnostic GPM 1554.1
409.5 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -40.0
67.4 Dragon Control % 54.9
63.5 Herald Control % 68.9
73.8 Baron Control % 48.4

(these are composite numbers a blend of full season and trending performance)

I bolded the things that stand out most to me.  DAMWON haven’t even been having good early games opting for the +EV economy decision in almost all scenarios and they’re ridiculously good at it. The kill agnostic economy alone is just such a stark indicator to me that this line might actually be right. Just for kicks and context, TSM make 1833 gold per minute (before Friday). DAMWON literally make more money than them without killing anybody vs TSM’s entire economy. My model is giving Afreeca lot of credit for their objective control and early game differentials but DAMWON are literally better than they are they just don’t have the literal differential stats to show for it.

Folks this contest isn’t as close as it initially looks. Afreeca are also prone to errors and DAMWON are quite literally playing a completely “new” way and still dominating…  I actually think they’ve got room to grow better.

I’m going against the model and backing DAMWON here. Afreeca are just too mistake prone and DWG capitalize on that better than anybody. This team isn’t getting it done in a very sexy or flashy manner but they’re quite literally grinding teams to a pulp. If they actually get kills? Forget about it.

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 27.162

Time-Implied: 27.698

Underdog Win: 26.676

“Gelati” Total Projection: 27.216 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total:  56.48% (DWG 62.96% / AF 50%)

Volatility Rating: DWG 0.32446 / AF 0.31716 (League Avg: 0.3170)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

Afreeca team total OVER 8.5 kills @ -110 (strong)

(alt) OVER 22.5 kills @ -145 (moderate)

(alt) OVER 21.5 kills @ -175 (light)

OVER 23.5 kills @ -118 (light)

 

Afreeca have been pretty bloody this season but DAMWON also don’t make a lot of the stupid mistakes most teams do. I do like the overall total over though.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 33.995 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 33.95 / 34.6

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 54.86% (DWG 55.55% / AF 54.17%)

Volatility Rating: DWG 0.20095 / AF 0.16096 (League Avg: 0.15110)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none

 

DAMWON don’t seem to care how they’re getting it done which makes me want to avoid their time totals although the averages per win/loss for these teams definitely point to an over. Pass.

 

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

Afreeca first herald @ +120 (VERY strong)

Afreeca first tower @ +149 (VERY strong)

Afreeca first blood @ -114 (VERY strong)

OVER 11.5 towers @ +138 (strong)

OVER 1.5 barons @ +153 (strong)

OVER 12.5 towers @ +149 (moderate)

OVER 4.5 dragons @ -119 (miniscule)

 

The thing with all of these Afreeca firsts is that DAMWON are just as good as they are in all of them, the price is just very good. I think the first herald is the best value on the board and is generally more predictable than first blood. I’m staying away from the over towers just because I could easily see DAMWON absolutely smoking Afreeca if they botch an early play.

 

My Picks:

 

Map Spread: DAMWON -1.5 maps @ -169 (1.69 units)

Prop: Map 1 Afreeca first herald @ +120 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 2 Afreeca first herald @ +120 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 3 Afreeca first herald @ +120 (0.5 units)

 

 

 


T1 -244 (-1.5 maps @ +132, +1.5 @ -769)

vs

KT Rolster +196 (+1.5 maps @ -169, -1.5 @ +470)

 

 

Map ML Price: T1 -208 / KT +159

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +112 / under -143)

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -109 / under -120)

Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -111 / +5.5 @ -118

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -120 / under -109)

 

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

T1 series moneyline @ -244 (moderate-strong)

T1 -1.5 maps @ +112 (moderate)

T1 map moneyline @ -208 (light)

 

It might not be what it used to be but it wouldn’t be The Telecom War without some side drama… and T1 has plenty of it for the whole bunch.

With frustrations mounting and an “embarrassing” 0-2 loss to Fredit Brion, people are getting fed up with all the roster swapping from T1. Well, I’ve got bad news for you, this team doesn’t care about what you think and they never have. Whether or not you think the coaching staff is handling this poorly or not, we’ve got a match to handicap here.

Brion played a hell of a series against T1 the other day. Did T1 look a little lost when they were behind? Absolutely but I’m not sure it would have changed the outcome of the series. Brion straight up out played them. We’ve seen that team catch lightning in a bottle against DAMWON too. I won’t call it an underperformance, Brion were just good. Sometimes it happens so I wouldn’t call that loss “embarrassing” despite how it looks.

KT on the other hand… speaking of embarrassing. I’m like a disappointed father with this team; I’m not mad, just disappointed. Doran is putting on an absolute clinic this season and they just can’t seem to get the rest of the map right. This team is predictable but ridiculously inconsistent in their results. MY concern for KT is that they seem to only win when they can make the game last long and I don’t think any iteration of T1 is going to let that happen in this series.

KT have been absolutely routed by anybody with any semblence of early game competency or sense of tempo. We’ve seen some explosive starts by T1 but similar to Afreeca, they’ve been doing so at the expense of their own economy.

T1

KT
417.1 Gold Diff @ 10 min -214.6
937.0

Gold Diff @ 15 min

-871.8
561.3 Gold Diff @ 20 min -1082.3
1645.0 GPM first 20 min 1835.0
88.8 Gold Diff / min first 20 -62.5
37.7 Gold Diff / min ROG -51.0
1824.8 Gold /min 1793.0
29.0 Gold / min vs Avg 27.0
56.5 Gold Diff / min -35.7
0.8 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -0.5
1638.1 Kill Agnostic GPM 1547.7
-17.3 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -172.7
52.6 Dragon Control % 40.2
47.3 Herald Control % 43.4
47.4 Baron Control % 42.2

(these are composite numbers a blend of full season and trending performance)

This is not a good look for T1 and VERY off-brand for how this team has historically liked to play.

I think a lot of the inconsistencies in T1’s metrics stem from the drastically different styles of teams depending on who is at the helm. Right now, Clozer grades as the #12 mid laner in the LCK, Faker #4. Why is Clozer so much lower? He has solid differential statistics but the other aspects of his game have been atrocious. He’s below average in kill participation,  damage per gold per minute (damage efficiency), and rates roughly average in overall damage per minute but he’s the worst mid in the league in the overall vision suite by far. They’re VERY DIFFERENT players.

All of this is to say I’m just waiting until the lineups are announced. If we see at least one of the veterans in (Teddy or Faker or Cuzz) then I’ll probably just close my nose and take T1 here but otherwise I’m just staying away from this completely. I think this T1 team needs to have a veteran voice in game, at least that’s the way it seems by how they look in the games where they run the full young lineup.

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 25.89

Time-Implied: 26.173

Underdog Win: 25.49

“Gelati” Total Projection: 25.966 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 55.62% (T1 48.28% / KT 62.96%)

Volatility Rating: T1 0.32778 / KT 0.2967 (League Avg: 0.3170)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

KT team total OVER 9.5 kills @ -104 (strong)

OVER 23.5 kills @ -109 (light)

(alt) OVER 22.5 kills @ -133 (light)

T1 team total UNDER 13.5 kills @ -116 (very light)

(alt) OVER 24.5 kills @ +100 (miniscule)

 

With Clozer in lineup T1 Combined kills per minute of 0.842. With Faker? 0.692.

This makes sense but again, with kill totals I’m going to wait for the lineup announcement.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 33.662 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 33.44 / 33.31

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 57.34% (T1 51.72% / KT 62.96%)

Volatility Rating: T1 0.13476 / KT 0.16867 (League Avg: 0.15110)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OVER 33:00 @ -120 (light)

 

With Clozer? Average game time of 33.27 minutes. With Faker? 31.69 minutes

Depends on lineup. Opposite of what you’d think and in combination with the higher combined kills per minute, why I like the over kill totals so much with Clozer in the lineup.

 

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

T1 first tower @ -149 (strong)

UNDER 1.5 barons @ +126 (strong)

OVER 12.5 towers @ +152 (light)

OVER 11.5 towers @ -123 (miniscule)

 

I’m not messing with this baron number because of the wide range we have here. Only 27.6% of T1 games go to a second baron but 62.96% of KT games do. Average those and you’d see maybe a play you like but it largely depends on who you think wins this series. If T1 show any semblance of an early game KT get run over, otherwise it’s a decent look.

I’m going to take the T1 first tower as it doesn’t seem to matter who is in the lineup for that one to cash and KT have been awful across the board in objectives because of their terrible early game.

 

 

My Picks:

Regardless of starter:

Prop: Map 1 T1 first tower @ -149 (1.49 units)

Prop: Map 2 T1 first tower @ -169 (1.69 units)

Prop: Map 3 T1 first tower @ -172 (1.72 units)

 

IF Faker starts:

Moneyline: T1 @ -244 (2.44 units)

Map Spread: T1 -1.5 maps @ +132 (1 unit)

Time Total: Map 1 UNDER 33:00 @ -109 (0.545 units)

Time Total: Map 2 UNDER 33:00 @ -109 (0.545 units)

Time Total: Map 3 UNDER 33:00 @ -109 (0.545 units)

 

 

If Clozer starts:

Moneyline: T1 -244 (1.22 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 23.5 @ -109 (1.09 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 23.5 @ -109 (1.09 units)

Kill Total: Map 3 OVER 23.5 @ -109 (1.09 units)

 


LOL European Championship (LEC)

Week 7 – Day 2

 

 

 

Schalke 04 -185 vs Astralis +143

 

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -114 / under -115)

Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -110 / +5.5 @ -119

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -102 / under -128)

This is a strange one because everything points to a Schalke slam dunk here but it’s critically important to be aware of the potential mental state of the Schalke players right now. They’e now lost seven in a row AND their organization is having financial issues stemming from the football club. You can see the frustration of the players in both their gameplay and on the player cameras during and after these games. Losing streaks suck. You start to question what you’re doing, what’s right, why you can’t catch a break, etc. It’s a terrible state to be in.

Schalke’s draft looked a lot better yesterday despite the loss and that’s been something they’ve been struggling with during this losing streak. In fact, I think they would have won at least a few of these games without weird draft setups for themselves.

I know most people are fading this match but I think Astralis are just what the doctor ordered for Schalke. It might not matter for their playoff hopes at this point but something I know from experience when you’re in the middle of a slump like this, you can get yourself motivated even when it doesn’t matter just to get the proverbial monkey off your back. You’re also getting almost forty cents of line value from the opener which was in the -220 range for this match.

My Picks: 

Moneyline: Schalke -185 (1.85 units)

Prop: Schalke first blood @ -141 (1.41 units)

 


Team Vitality -106 vs Excel Esports -122

 

Kill Total: 21.5 (over -116 / under -112)

Kill Spread: -1.5 @ -112 / +1.5 @ -115

Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 10.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -110 / under -119)

These two teams are trending in opposite directions and that’s the majority of my justification for Vitality here. Their economy has been better over the course of the season despite trailing Excel by two wins and Excel have been consistently getting worse. Neither of these teams are particularly good in the early game much preferring to scale up and team fight and that’s the angle I like more in this contest.

Excel are under a lot of pressure. A loss here would all but kill their playoff hopes. I just don’t see them picking any kind of uptempo look under these circumstances and Vitality haven’t been in any kind of rush with their protect Crownshot strategy.  The over feels like a very nice place here. I want it every way I can get it. Given the price on the over 4.5 dragons being pricier than the time total over I’ll just stick to a hefty helping of the time total over and a piece of the over 1.5 barons.

My Picks:

(this moved while writing, still like it at the new numbers)

Moneyline: Vitality -122 (1.22 units)

Time Total: OVER 33:00 @ -110 (1.6 units)

Prop: OVER 1.5 barons @ +119 (0.5 units)

 

 


 

Fnatic -233 vs SK Gaming +178

 

Kill Total: 29.5 (over -114 / under -115)

Kill Spread: -7.5 @ -120 / +7.5 @ -109

Team Kill Totals: 17.5 / 10.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over +123 / under -161)

 

Both of these teams are weird. SK Gaming continue to dig themselves holes but seemingly always manage to claw out of them off the back of sick engages by Treatz who continues to deliver. Personally, I don’t think this is a reliable strategy so I’m not entirely buying the SK is as good as their record, however, they aren’t a bad team either. Fnatic are highly volatile but I think that as the season progresses, they’re going to become more and more refined at what they do. Their toolbox is deep and that’s a powerful tool that’s going to give them a lot of leverage this year.

Fnatic have a habit of getting overexcited and beating themselves though which is concerning any time that you’re considering them as big favorites but I do think they’re the side here. Their economy is very kill reliant but still significantly better without them than their peers in the same vicinity like MAD Lions and SK. This is a stylistic nightmare for SK Gaming who have struggled in the early game where Fnatic excel.

Again I’ll be laying the juice on the time total under, still value on that price, and taking Fnatic.

 

My Picks: 

(this moved while writing, still like it at the new numbers)

Moneyline: Fnatic -250 (2.5 units)

Time Total: UNDER 32:00 @ -161 (1.61 units)

 


 

MAD Lions +172 vs Rogue -227

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -114 / under -115)

Kill Spread: +5.5 @ -114 / -5.5 @ -115

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 15.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over +134 / under -175)

This is Rogue all day for me. Rogue and G2 are in a class all their own atop the LEC right now and to me, and in my models, Fnatic and MAD are at least a tier down. Obviously they’re different styles of teams so they’re going to perform differently in a lot of ways but for the type of team that Rogue are they’re even better than they were last season. They have one of the best kill-agnostic economies in the world (any region). What they’re doing on a game-to-game basis is more consistent, more reliable, more repeatable than anything any other team besides G2 is remotely close to in the LEC and they’ve been doing all of that while showing a lot of new looks.

MAD Lions have looked better of late but they’ve also been beating up on a soft part of their schedule beating the struggling Schalke yesterday, Vitality, losing to SK, and with wins against Schalke, Excel, and Fnatic in their past six. The Fnatic win was impressive, the rest? Not so much now that we’ve seen where these teams are at. I think MAD are a pretty good team but they’re volatile and I think they’re more sizzle than steak meaning the flashy, explosive nature of their games makes them look better than their underlying metrics suggest. The bottom lane has been getting away with murder with some of their decision making which hasn’t improved from earlier in the season despite the victories they’ve been picking up.

MAD struggle against these more disciplined looks. Rogue utterly stomped them last time out, they’ve lost to SK twice, and G2 on opening day. I think we see a rout again. They’re just too inconsistent and reliant on kills and opponent error for things to go their way. The under is still a good look even at the price as well.

My Picks: 

Moneyline: Rogue -227 (2.27 units)

Time Total: UNDER 33:00 @ -175 (1.75 units)

 

 


Misfits +306 vs G2 Esports -435

 

Kill Total: 28.5 (over -123 / under -105)

Kill Spread: +8.5 @ -119 / -8.5 @ -110

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 18.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over +100 / under -130)

 

Misfits have been piecing together wins and are looking like they’ll likely be a playoff team but their wins since week two have been against Astralis, Excel, Schalke, and Astralis again. When they’ve faced Rogue they got annihilated and the first meeting against G2 was only the clown fiesta it was because G2 attempted some extremely disrepsectful stuff and nearly punted.

These two aren’t remotely close to in the same ballpark in terms of quality.  G2 are going to destroy Misfits.

 

My Picks: 

Kill Spread: G2 -8.5 kills @ -110 (1.1 units)

Time Total: UNDER 32:00 @ -130 (1.3 units)

Prop: UNDER 12.5 towers @ -204 (2.04 units)

 

 

 


LOL Championship Series (LCS)

Week 5 – Day 2

 

 Will update this post Saturday morning/afternoon.

 

Golden Guardians +256 vs Dignitas -357

 

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -114 / under -114)

Kill Spread: +6.5 @ -109 / -6.5 @ -120

Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 15.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -101 / under -128)

 

Dignitas pulled out a win with a little help from TSM on Friday night but this team continues to look solid to me. They’re not going to win the league or anything like that and they’re probably slightly worse than their record but I’m not sure this is a squad that’s going to get “figured out,” they’re just good.

Golden Guardians are not.

That said, we’re starting to see some signs of good League of Legends here and there. They’re actually punching on cross-map plays instead of just standing there and they’re starting to learn what they should and shouldn’t draft blindly. Still a ways off but I can see some light at the end of the tunnel for them.

Dignitas are the right side here and it seems terrible laying this kind of moneyline with a team like this but Golden Guardians are really REALLY bad. You could look into props like first to 10 over the moneyline here but I’m going to opt for a moneyline/alt spread split.

 

My Picks:

Moneyline: Dignitas -357 (1.785 units)

Kill Spread (alt): Dignitas -8.5 kills @ +131 (0.5 units)

 


Team Solo Mid -120 vs 100 Thieves -109

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -110 / under -119)

Kill Spread: +0.5 @ -114 / -0.5 @ -115

Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 12.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -116 / under -112)

I’m not sure I understand why this line is so short. TSM have economy advantage, have looked better of late,  100 Thieves are starting to look a little frustrated, and to top it all off the Ryoma/Damonte swap. I don’t think Ryoma was bad in that game yesterday but when the amount of resources he had you’ve got to be able to do more than he did. It was admittedly a tough team comp to play against with the massive front line and Ekko but come on my dude.

This is a slam dunk TSM bet to me. I’m usually not deterred by throws unless it becomes a chronic problem and TSM have been mostly solid from a macro perspective after the first few weeks.

My Picks:

Moneyline: TSM -120 (1.8 units)

 


Cloud 9 -143 vs Team Liquid +112

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -120 / under -109)

Kill Spread: -1.5 @ -119 / +1.5 @ -110

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 11.5

Time Total: 34:00 (over +174 / under -233)

 

I mentioned it on the podcast this week but I think people are putting too much weight on Liquid’s record when thinking about this match and not considering pound for pound how good the players on this team are. Cloud 9 have been the best team in the league but just like G2 and Rogue, I think it’s a lot closer than public perception. I think Liquid will end up the best team when it’s all said and done. The question becomes when does that happen? I think sooner rather than later and it starts here. I don’t think you’re going to see plus money on Liquid again this year.

With this in mind, I can see the case for Cloud 9 here as well. They’ve got the better regular season track record, their statistics are obviously impressive althoug their record aids in that. I totally understand that this looks like a cheap price for them but I just can’t get over the overall player quality on Liquid and the fact that they’re steadily improving as the season goes on. Liquid is also 4-2 against Cloud 9 this season between the Lock-In (which you shouldn’t put much weight on) and their win in week three.

 

My Picks:

Moneyline: Liquid +112 (1 unit)

 


Evil Geniuses -278 vs Immortals +210

 

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -114 / under -115)

Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -127 / +6.5 @ -103

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 8.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -110 / under -119)

Immortals have been fairly inconsistent and are starting to look to me like maybe the 9th place team in the league. That doesn’t really matter unless we have context though. How much worse really is 9th than the middle of the table or the top? That remains to be seen but I think they’re maybe closer to the bottom of that mid tier or perhaps in their own tier between mid and GGS. They should be better than this and I expect them to be with more time but right now they’re not in a good way. Still, we’ve seen this team punch up already and we should keep that in mind.

Evil Geniuses beat themselves way more often than they’re beaten which makes me squeamish thinking of backing them as large favorites. They’re very sloppy despite having excellent individual players.

EG is the side here but this moneyline is a little too expensive for my taste with a team as volatile as EG who could just throw the game on a single dumb play.  I do like the team total over quite a bit here though and could see that getting there even in a loss.

My Picks: 

Kill Total (team): Evil Geniuses OVER 14.5 kills @ -122 (1.22 units)

 


FlyQuest -115 vs Counter Logic Gaming (CLG) -110

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -108 / under -122)

Kill Spread: -1.5 @ -118 / +1.5 @ -111

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 11.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -119 / under -110)

 

I liked both of these rosters going into the season as sneaky upside mid table teams. FlyQuest have dramatically underperformed my expectations and I’m starting to think that this team just might not be that good with Palafox and Newbie struggling to adjust to the LCS. Perhaps with more time they’ll get there but right now I don’t want anything to do with FlyQuest unless it’s against GGS or Immortals.

CLG I actually loved the roster going into the season and thought they could be the crafty, savvy veteran squad that takes advantage of all the other young, high turnover rosters but obviously the visa issues delayed that. CLG looked way WAY better with just another week of practice under their belts and I’d expect them to continue progressing.  I’m not buying into this miracle run hype. I liked this roster before the season even started and we’re finally getting it.

A quick note on the first blood… it’s comical that this keeps happening but they’re not really doing anything in particular to manifest a 100% first blood rate. I think realistically the things they do in the early game make them look like a 55-60% first blood team and they’ve just flipped heads a bunch of times. Yesterday it was just Revenge getting baited it wasn’t even a proactive play. These kinds of narratives can cloud your thinking. First blood is a very volatile prop market. I like it in very specific cases where you get a big number on an underdog that has a knack for it and that’s about it. It’s still just probability folks. If a coin comes up heads ten times in a row, the odds of getting heads next flip is still 50%, don’t get suckered into it.

 

My Picks:

Kill Spread (alt): CLG -0.5 kills @ +106 (1 unit)

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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