Friday, March 26th Recap

 

BiliBili vs FunPlus (Net: +2.0 units)

eStar vs Suning (Net: -3.17 units)

DRX vs Gen.G (Net: +1.38 units)

Sandbox vs Afreeca (no action)

 

Fnatic vs SK Gaming (Net: +3.34 units)

 

I had a bit of a wrench thrown in the plans this afternoon when the wind knocked my power out so I’ll be getting to these recaps over the weekend when I get time but I lost about four hours worth of working time this afternoon.

 

LPL Net Total: -1.17 units

LCK Net Total: +1.38 units

LEC Net Total: +3.34 units

 

Daily Net Total: +3.55 units

 

Current Week (March 22nd-28th):  +6.89 units (+5.47% ROI)

 

Last Week (March 15th-21st):  -16.94 units (-11.17% ROI)

 


LOL Pro League (China)

Week 10 – Day 6

 

 

TT Gaming -110 (+1.5 @ -345, -1.5 @ +249)

vs

OMG -115 (-1.5 @ +251, +1.5 @ -345)

 

 

Map ML Price: TT -110 / OMG -115

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +101 / under -128)

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -116 / under -111)

Kill Spread: -1.5 @ -112 / +1.5 @ -115 (TT / OMG)

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 12.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -102 / under -127)

 (Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

TT Tale of the Tape OMG
-991.6 Gold Diff @ 10 min -1210.3
-1645.5 Gold Diff @ 15 min -2101.6
-1738.9 Gold Diff @ 20 min -2084.6
-6.5 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -62.1
-75.8 Gold Diff / min first 20 -146.6
194.6 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -213.8
1739.3 Gold /min (GPM) 1685.3
-65.1 Gold / min vs Avg -119.1
-164.8 Gold Diff / min -213.8
-2.3 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -3.0
1579.6 Kill Agnostic GPM 1542.1
-92.8 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -124.2
1945.9 GPM in wins 1923.1
253.7 Gold Diff per min in wins 277.7
1649.5 GPM in losses 1593.8
-346.7 Gold Diff per min in losses -402.8
-166.7 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -215.7
-19.1 Win-Adjusted GPM -41.8
-73.4 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -49.4
45.3 Dragon Control % 44.6
56.9 Herald Control % 47.2
44.4 Baron Control % 45.5
1.0 Quality Wins? 3.0
10.0 % of wins as Quality 30.0

 

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

TT series moneyline @ -110 (moderate-strong)

TT map moneyline @ -110 (moderate)

TT -1.5 maps @ +249 (moderate-light)

 

I don’t really have some big grand breakdown for what is essentially a meaningless match between two of the weaker teams in the league but I do think TT have shown more good things than OMG over the course of this season. They can at least jump out to a lead on people even if they fumble it a lot of the time. OMG don’t really do anything particularly well so I’m going to trust my eyes, the individual player model, and the economy/objective model which are all strongly siding with TT here.

I’ll note that this line has actually moved toward OMG. TT opened as short favorites earlier in the week and earlier today somebody started hitting OMG. Can’t say I agree with whoever that is but I suppose we’ll see.

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 27.439

Time-Implied: 29.011

Underdog Win: 29.277

“Gelati” Total Projection: 27.874 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 42.3% (TT 48.48% / OMG 36.11%)

Volatility Rating:  TT 0.33433 / OMG 0.31394 (League Avg: 0.3046)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

UNDER 26.5 @ -111 (moderate-strong)

(alt) UNDER 27.5 @ -132 (moderate-light)

(alt) UNDER 25.5 @ +108 (very light)

—-

Team Totals:

OMG team total UNDER 12.5 @ -104 (VERY strong)

TT team total UNDER 12.5 @ -104 (strong)

 

TT League Average OMG
Combined Kills / game 27.907 26.45 26.934
Combined Kills / min 0.981 0.88 0.914
Kills per win 18.594 18.24 20.050
Kills per loss 9.227 9.13 6.969
Deaths per win 11.20 8.20 8.80
Deaths per loss 17.78 18.00 17.77
Average Margin of Victory (AMOV) 6.30 9.57 11.30
Average Margin of Defeat (AMOD) 9.39 9.61 11.27

 

So there’s a chance this does turn into a bit of a clown fiesta with nothing on the line and both of these teams have scored well over the kills to put this over in their wins but a lot of their wins were upset situations. TT have generally been an over team just because they jump out to leads, throw them, and the other team needs an extra fight or two to get across the finish line but against OMG I do think they’ll actually be able to close on those leads. More often than not when we get games between the bottom of the table like this they’re either complete bonanzas or one team just showing better on the day and taking care of business with the latter being significantly more common. I like the under here but there’s no telling how these teams treat this so I’ll pass.

 

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time:  30.619 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 31.48 / 31.42

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 40.66% (TT 42.42% / OMG 38.89%)

Volatility Rating: TT 0.16308 / OMG 0.16603 (League Avg: 0.16106)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

UNDER 32:00 @ -127 (moderate)

 

TT OMG
Average Game Time 31.01 30.23
Avg Game Time (in wins) 33.21 33.77
Avg Game Time (in losses) 30.056 28.863

Similar reasoning to the above. I’d lean toward the under as TT have shown some surprisingly good early game proficiency but fail to close against better teams. Against OMG I think they would but again who knows what kind of motivation or type of match we get here. Could be clown around time or it could be very serious. Lean under but pass.

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -204 (VERY strong)

TT first dragon @ -102 (moderate)

TT first herald @ -132 (very light)

** denotes advantage in a category that the opponent is also strong in, must be considered

The under 12.5 towers is strong with these two because they’ve just been whooped on most of the season. I’m passing on these, if I had to play one it’d be TT first dragon.

 

My Picks:

 

Moneyline: TT -110 (1.1 units)

Map Spread: TT -1.5 maps @ +249 (0.5 units)

 


 

TOP Esports -323 (-1.5 maps @ +110, +1.5 @ -1111)

vs

Team WE +235 (+1.5 maps @ -141, -1.5 @ +606)

 

 

Map ML Price: TOP -233 / WE +178

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +119 / under -152)

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -118 / under -110)

Kill Spread: -7.5 @ -111 / +7.5 @ -116

Team Kill Totals: 17.5 / 10.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over +111 / under -145)

 (Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

TOP Tale of the Tape WE
2318.4 Gold Diff @ 10 min 792.8
1550.8 Gold Diff @ 15 min 2202.7
144.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min 2602.8
126.0 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 43.5
182.5 Gold Diff / min first 20 72.2
550.0 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 557.7
1923.4 Gold /min (GPM) 1901.7
119.0 Gold / min vs Avg 97.3
219.7 Gold Diff / min 197.8
3.0 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 2.7
1678.5 Kill Agnostic GPM 1673.9
128.1 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 132.6
2028.6 GPM in wins 2006.0
439.2 Gold Diff per min in wins 392.7
1702.6 GPM in losses 1672.3
-241.2 Gold Diff per min in losses -231.2
217.7 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 195.8
63.6 Win-Adjusted GPM 41.0
112.1 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 65.6
54.0 Dragon Control % 55.0
68.9 Herald Control % 60.3
64.3 Baron Control % 64.1
16.0 Quality Wins? 11.0
76.2 % of wins as Quality 50.0

 

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

WE series moneyline @ +235 (VERY strong)

WE +1.5 maps @ -141 (VERY strong)

WE map moneyline @ +178 (strong)

OVER 2.5 maps @ +119 (moderate-light)

 

My model is extremely high on both of these teams with TOP at #1 and WE dropping to #3 after their last performance which, I’ll admit, has me questioning some things. I don’t like to judge too harshly on a single game performance especially after assembling such an impressive portfolio over the course of the season but Team WE haven’t been as strong against the true top of the table teams. Their wins against other playoff teams include LNG, IG, FPX, and Suning but they couldn’t take on RNG, EDG, JDG, or RareAtom. I don’t want to get all transitive property on you all or anything like that but the point I’m making is that WE are capable of beating teams this good, obviously, but they’re maybe somewhat of a paper tiger. Of course you could say a similar thing about TOP Esports.

Personally, I think TOP are a better team overall. This isn’t a revelation but I have serious concerns about Shanks after his last outing against Scout and now he gets Knight who’s playing at a ridiculously high level right now, despite this nonsense the casters are spewing. Knight is more than double the second place mid laner in gold differential at 15 minutes (691 vs Doinb’s 328 and Scout’s 275). For comparison, Chovy has 616, Faker 411, ShowMaker 364. Knight is also second in the league in raw damage per minute and has a 12 CS differential at 15 and he’s doing this all while blind picking 39% of the time. Call bullshit on anybody telling you he’s having an off year. They’re full of it.

There’s a lot at stake in this series as this would secure a top four seed and byes for the first two rounds of playoffs for whoever clinches it. TOP would secure the spot with any match win (2-0 or 2-1). If WE win they’d get the spot as they’d move to 12-4 match score.

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 27.327%
2 1 26.083%
1 2 23.813%
0 2 22.777%
(Series Win): 53.410%

 

TOP should win this series. They’re the better team but this number is outrageously overweight. The model makes this a 53.41 – 46.59% series. Even if I significantly adjust TOP up for the Knight/Shanks mismatch and overall superior quality players at every position (maybe not jungle), it’s still pretty tough to get an extra 18% or so to match up with the no-vig implied odds of 71.9% for TOP. These two teams are much more evenly matched than that and that’s coming from someone that thinks TOP is the best team in the league.  Either hold your nose and back the dog here or pass. I’ll be passing, call it intuition but I think TOP are going to absolutely destroy WE so I’m staying out of the way. I wouldn’t back TOP at this number though, it’d be like paying $80,000 for a Toyota Camry…. or maybe it’s more like paying $1,000,000 for a $200,000 Lamborghini in TOP’s case.

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 27.238

Time-Implied: 27.158

Underdog Win: 31.055

“Gelati” Total Projection: 27.361 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 52.37% (TOP 51.61% / WE 53.125%)

Volatility Rating:  TOP 0.30734 / WE 0.20537 (League Avg: 0.3046)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none

—-

Team Totals:

WE team total OVER 10.5 @ -104 (VERY VERY strong)

TOP team total UNDER 17.5 @ -119 (miniscule)

 

TOP League Average WE
Combined Kills / game 27.499 26.45 26.281
Combined Kills / min 0.902 0.88 0.907
Kills per win 17.775 18.24 19.074
Kills per loss 11.981 9.13 7.500
Deaths per win 6.33 8.20 8.59
Deaths per loss 20.50 18.00 16.90
Average Margin of Victory (AMOV) 12.00 9.57 9.90
Average Margin of Defeat (AMOD) 9.10 9.61 10.00

 

TOP give up so little when they do win so I’m much more skeptical than my model is about this suggestions for the WE team total over. I’d bet this match has a very playoff atmosphere to it and we probably see significantly fewer kills so if I had to take a position on any kill total prop it’d be the full game under.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time:  30.03 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 31.08 / 30.66

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 26.97% (TOP 25.81% / WE 28.125%)

Volatility Rating: TOP 0.15878 / WE 0.12985 (League Avg: 0.16106)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

UNDER 32:00 @ -145 (VERY strong)

 

TOP WE
Average Game Time 29.95 30.11
Avg Game Time (in wins) 30.09 27.95
Avg Game Time (in losses) 30.143 34.163

 

These teams are both ridiculously good at snowballing advantages but interestingly they’re also two of the best teams from behind in games ranking #1 and #3 in gold per minute in losses and #2 and #3 in gold differential per minute in losses (in the good way, as in they keep it closer than other teams). Neither goes down easy BUT both of these teams are so good at snowballing a game that I actually think these will be 2-3 lopsided stompings for whoever jumps out to a lead. Love the under here. It’s also a more efficient play than the under dragons despite the “better” price in that market. There is actually about an 8% difference in the amount of games that go under 4.5 dragons and over 32 minutes vs the opposite.

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

TOP first tower @ -169 (VERY strong)**

WE first tower @ +123 (VERY strong)**

WE first herald @ -106 (VERY strong)**

UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -118 (strong)

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -238 (moderate-strong)

WE first dragon @ +107 (moderate-strong)

TOP first blood @ -149 (moderate-strong)

TOP first herald @ -127 (moderate)**

OVER 1.5 barons @ +152 (light)

** denotes advantage in a category that the opponent is also strong in, must be considered

TOP are an extremely proficient “firsts” team in that echelon with Gen.G and DAMWON. They’re what I’ve been calling on the blog for months now a chameleon team in that they will just adapt their plan to what their opponent likes to do and either match it head on or go the other way. They’re versatile. WE are good in certain areas as well. Because TOP are so versatile in regards to their opening ten I don’t always like using the typical plan of “this is a dragon team, take the dragon team at plus money.” I’ll be taking TOP first blood and first tower in this contest. TOP have picked up first tower in 21 out of their past 22 games.

 

My Picks:

 

Time Total: Map 1 UNDER 32:00 @ -145 (1.45 units)

Time Total: Map 2 UNDER 32:00 @ -156 (1.56 units)

Time Total: Map 3 UNDER 32:00 @ -137 (1.37 units)

Prop: Map 1 TOP first tower @ -169 (1.69 units)

Prop: Map 2 TOP first tower @ -169 (1.69 units)

Prop: Map 3 TOP first tower @ -169 (1.69 units)

Prop: Map 1 TOP first blood @ -149 (1.49 units)

Prop: Map 2 TOP first blood @ -139 (1.39 units)

Prop: Map 3 TOP first blood @ -132 (1.32 units)

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -238 (1.19 units)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -244 (1.22 units)

Prop: Map 3 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -238 (1.19 units)

 


 

LOL Champions Korea (LCK)

Week 10 – Day 3

 

 

 

DAMWON Kia Gaming -1250 (-1.5 maps @ -256)

vs

KT Rolster +656 (+1.5 maps @ +192, -1.5 @ +1500)

 

 

Map ML Price: DWG -769 / KT +474

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +225 / under -303)

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -110 / under -118)

Kill Spread: -9.5 @ -108 / +9.5 @ -120

Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 7.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -154 / under +118)

 (Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

DWG Tale of the Tape KT
172.8 Gold Diff @ 10 min -326.3
1145.4 Gold Diff @ 15 min -866.2
1299.3 Gold Diff @ 20 min -1035.0
44.9 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -23.7
70.9 Gold Diff / min first 20 -68.2
173.7 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -158.3
1885.3 Gold /min (GPM) 1751.3
101.9 Gold / min vs Avg -32.0
173.7 Gold Diff / min -88.4
2.4 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -1.3
1676.5 Kill Agnostic GPM 1613.2
112.2 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -57.3
1948.2 GPM in wins 1936.2
289.3 Gold Diff per min in wins 234.2
1696.5 GPM in losses 1635.8
-173.2 Gold Diff per min in losses -290.0
178.4 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -83.7
21.5 Win-Adjusted GPM 9.5
3.8 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -51.2
65.1 Dragon Control % 37.2
62.8 Herald Control % 44.2
75.4 Baron Control % 40.3
9.0 Quality Wins? 4.0
30.0 % of wins as Quality 26.7

 

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

DAMWON series moneyline @ -1250 (light)

 

KT managed to pull one out for us yesterday but man oh man was it rough. This team is not good and I’m fairly certain DAMWON could grind them to a pulp in their sleep. That said, other than pride, DAMWON have nothing to play for here but that hasn’t stopped them from “tryharding” in every match since they’ve clinched first. My only concern here would be substitutions from DAMWON but I doubt we see that, they haven’t been one to utilize that even with the whole ShowMaker medical “situation.” Plus it would feel a little weird to do it now right? Still, keep your eyes peeled for pre-match lineups and maybe jump on KT if you see it… or don’t…

This is the season on the line for KT, they could potentially lock up a playoff spot with a win here depending on the result of the Nongshim series. They’re tied in match score and game differential. They’ll throw the kitchen sink at this match. I could see wanting to back the desperation against the “meaningless” match for DAMWON but I’m not touching this side.

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 24.612

Time-Implied: 24.032

Underdog Win: 26.717

“Gelati” Total Projection: 23.932 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 42.98% (DWG 47.5% / KT 38.46%)

Volatility Rating:  DWG 0.30547 / KT 0.36226 (League Avg: 0.3104)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

UNDER 25.5 @ -118 (moderate)

—-

Team Totals:

KT team total OVER 7.5 @ -114 (strong)

DAMWON team total UNDER 16.5 @ -106 (light)

 

DAMWON League Average KT
Combined Kills / game 25.075 24.67 21.286
Combined Kills / min 0.779 0.76 0.627
Kills per win 18.073 16.86 17.592
Kills per loss 9.125 8.59 6.125
Deaths per win 9.67 7.81 9.27
Deaths per loss 17.10 16.89 15.50
Average Margin of Victory (AMOV) 7.67 9.04 8.67
Average Margin of Defeat (AMOD) 9.10 9.03 8.38

 

I absolutely love the under in this spot primarily because I also think the projected time (see below) is probably going to be shorter than the average game time for these two on the season. KT’s early game has been mostly terrible this season and while DAMWON haven’t exactly been in a rush to beat people, they’ll still run you over if you give them the opportunity to. I could see this as a statement match before playoffs for DAMWON.

9.5 is a massive kill spread for the LCK and against DAMWON specifically who are only winning by an average of 7.67 kills. Considering I like the under in this contest I think the KT kill spread is actually a nice way to play this one if you want a piece of KT Rolster. I won’t be taking this but it is a very nice number to attack if you think KT have a shot with their backs against the wall here. DAMWON have only covered this number in 15 of their 31 wins.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time:  34.18 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 33.49 / 33.43

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 65.865% (DWG 62.5% / KT 69.23%)

Volatility Rating: DWG 0.19163 / KT 0.18135 (League Avg: 0.15498)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OVER 31:00 @ -154 (moderate-strong)

 

DAMWON KT
Average Game Time 33.63 34.73
Avg Game Time (in wins) 32.15 37.20
Avg Game Time (in losses) 38.057 33.194

 

The over is a strong suggestion based on the evidence we have but it requires some context. KT are a very emotional team, you can just tell by how they play from deficits and from ahead. If they get behind they’re going to get absolutely steamrolled by the good teams. I know DAMWON haven’t exactly been in a rush in any of their games this year but if you like the over you’re better off taking the dragons over 4.5. I personally think DAMWON are going to steamroll this like they did DRX game two who are a similar style to KT. Pass for me.

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OVER 1.5 barons @ +190 (VERY strong)

OVER 4.5 dragons @ +117 (strong)

OVER 11.5 towers @ +126 (moderate)

OVER 12.5 towers @ +214 (moderate)

KT first tower @ +204 (light)**

** denotes advantage in a category that the opponent is also strong in, must be considered

I think the over 4.5 dragons and 1.5  baron are better ways to play this time total over if you want to and you’re getting extremely good prices given the time total price. In fact I think they’re just completely wrong altogether and I almost want to bet them just because of that…Why have not just plus odds but big plus odds on these when you float a juiced 31:00. Take these if you like the over. I can’t help but think DAMWON make a statement with this one and a tilted and on-edge KT Rolster crack under the pressure and lose it so I’m passing on these, if anything I’d lean under.

 

My Picks:

 

Kill Total: Map 1 UNDER 25.5 @ -118 (1.18 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 UNDER 25.5 @ -115 (1.15 units)

Kill Total: Map 3 UNDER 25.5 @ -115 (1.15 units)

 


Nongshim RedForce -200 (-1.5 maps @ +150, +1.5 @ -667)

vs

Fredit Brion +155 (+1.5 maps @ -196, -1.5 @ +416)

 

 

Map ML Price: NS -179 / BRO +139

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +110 / under -141)

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -116 / under -111)

Kill Spread: -4.5 @ -116 / +4.5 @ -111

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 10.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -109 / under -119)

 (Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

NS Tale of the Tape BRO
-692.2 Gold Diff @ 10 min -96.4
-543.1 Gold Diff @ 15 min -1368.5
-87.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min -1277.9
-33.2 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -49.6
-68.9 Gold Diff / min first 20 -99.6
-189.3 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -294.9
1715.7 Gold /min (GPM) 1694.2
-67.7 Gold / min vs Avg -89.2
-112.4 Gold Diff / min -159.2
-1.5 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -2.2
1559.1 Kill Agnostic GPM 1563.6
-75.0 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -120.1
1872.4 GPM in wins 1847.8
251.3 Gold Diff per min in wins 188.5
1608.9 GPM in losses 1603.4
-360.4 Gold Diff per min in losses -364.7
-107.7 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -154.5
-54.3 Win-Adjusted GPM -78.9
-34.1 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -96.9
49.7 Dragon Control % 47.3
48.6 Herald Control % 29.9
40.4 Baron Control % 35.4
1.0 Quality Wins? 9.0
7.7 % of wins as Quality 69.2

 

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

Brion +1.5 maps @ -196 (moderate-light)

Brion series moneyline @ +155 (moderate-light)

Brion map moneyline @ +139 (moderate-light)

OVER 2.5 maps @ +110 (light)

 

These are the two worst teams in the LCK by my model and the two worst teams by my evaluation as well but miraculously Nongshim are still live to make the playoffs, something I really hope doesn’t happen. Brion are eliminated and have nothing to play for but pride (and potential starting jobs).

Look, Nongshim are slightly better if I had to pick one but they don’t deserve to be laying this kind of money to anyone with how poorly they’ve played this season. Another thing I’ll throw into the mix is that we just saw how they reacted to a high pressure match against KT Rolster. It wasn’t good. Looking at the numbers these teams really aren’t all that different either. Does this look like a match that should be -200 for the team on the left in the Tale of the Tape above? Not to me it doesn’t.

I’m going to be on Brion here primarily because the number is stupid but also because I think Nongshim are under way WAY more pressure in this spot and we saw how that went last time. I also think the “ceiling” performance for these teams is actually better for Brion who have shown us lightning in a bottle a few times this season against elite teams.

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 25.973

Time-Implied: 25.637

Underdog Win: 27.843

“Gelati” Total Projection: 25.623 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 46.95% (NS 56.76% / BRO 37.14%)

Volatility Rating:  NS 0.32035 / BRO 0.31516 (League Avg: 0.3104)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

(alt) UNDER 24.5 @ -137 (moderate)

UNDER 23.5 @ -111 (very light)

—-

Team Totals:

Nongshim team total UNDER 13.5 @ -123 (strong)

Brion team total UNDER 10.5 @ -123 (light)

Nongshim League Average Brion
Combined Kills / game 27.269 24.67 22.907
Combined Kills / min 0.846 0.76 0.725
Kills per win 17.281 16.86 15.599
Kills per loss 12.244 8.59 7.472
Deaths per win 6.53 7.81 7.00
Deaths per loss 18.59 16.89 15.45
Average Margin of Victory (AMOV) 9.47 9.04 9.15
Average Margin of Defeat (AMOD) 10.23 9.03 8.18

 

Team totals are influenced by how much losing these two have done so I’m somewhat throwing that out here.

Nongshim’s playoff spot is on the line here so I’d think they’re going to play this more conservatively although as I’ll mention below, it could be the opposite. This number is just really low for any Nongshim game even against the quiet Brion. If anything I’d go against the model and take the plus money over here but I’ll pass.

 

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 32.624 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 32.49 / 32.66

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 40.35% (NS 37.84% / BRO 42.86%)

Volatility Rating: NS 0.15124 / BRO 0.15288 (League Avg: 0.15498)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

UNDER 33:00 @ -119 (moderate-strong)

 

Nongshim Brion
Average Game Time 32.07 33.18
Avg Game Time (in wins) 30.12 34.48
Avg Game Time (in losses) 34.239 32.412

After the throwfest against KT Rolster the other day I have a feeling Nongshim are either going to come out even more overcautious or the opposite and hyper zealous. 33 is a fairly long total to float though even for the LCK. I don’t have a good read on the time total here so I’m just going to pass. Both of these teams suck so bad in the early game that I could see anything from a clean snowball one way or the other or the two of them looking at each other for 25 minutes so I’ll pass.

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

NS first dragon @ -109 (moderate-light)**

Brion first dragon @ -125 (light)**

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -233 (light)

** denotes advantage in a category that the opponent is also strong in, must be considered

 

No plays here.

 

My Picks:

 

Map Spread: Brion +1.5 maps @ -196 (1.96 units)

Moneyline: Brion +155 (0.75 units)

Map Spread: Brion -1.5 maps @ +416 (0.25 units)

 


 

LOL European Championship (LEC)

Spring Playoffs – Round 1 – Day 2

 

I will be writing on this later tonight or very early tomorrow morning.

 

Team Power # Rank
ROG 1.287302513 1
G2 1.118067217 2
MAD 0.8610223806 3
MSF 0.3083130834 4
FNC 0.005247913367 5
S04 -0.1662568672 6
SK -0.5635316865 7
XL -0.8121388067 8
VIT -0.8580583645 9
AST -1.130573064 10

(Post-Spring Regular Season LEC Power Ratings)

 

 

G2 Esports -833 (-1.5 maps @ -303, -2.5 @ +127, +1.5 @ -3333)

vs

FC Schalke 04 +541 (+1.5 maps @ +227, +2.5 @ -164, -1.5 @ +1062, -2.5 @ +2600)

 

Map ML Price: G2 -357 / S04 +262

Total Maps Played: 3.5 maps (over -147 / under +116), 4.5 maps (over +316 / under -455)

Kill Total: 27.5 (over -120 / under -108)

Kill Spread: -8.5 @ -110 / +8.5 @ -118

Team Kill Totals: 17.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over +112 / under -145)

G2 Tale of the Tape S04
216.8 Gold Diff @ 10 min -157.0
844.5 Gold Diff @ 15 min 68.9
1427.3 Gold Diff @ 20 min -285.9
73.1 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 4.5
86.6 Gold Diff / min first 20 -7.3
198.7 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -17.5
1859.3 Gold /min (GPM) 1793.9
81.7 Gold / min vs Avg 16.3
198.7 Gold Diff / min -4.7
2.7 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -0.1
1630.5 Kill Agnostic GPM 1643.1
123.5 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 11.0
1994.7 GPM in wins 1947.1
352.6 Gold Diff per min in wins 294.1
1385.4 GPM in losses 1640.8
-339.6 Gold Diff per min in losses -303.5
198.7 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -4.8
72.4 Win-Adjusted GPM 24.7
50.3 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -8.1
69.0 Dragon Control % 38.4
55.9 Herald Control % 50.0
70.4 Baron Control % 40.7
8.0 Quality Wins? 3.0
57.1 % of wins as Quality 33.3

 

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OVER 3.5 maps @ -147 (very light)

OVER 4.5 maps @ +316 (miniscule)

 

 

Quantitative Analysis:

This is a series where the quantitative and qualitative analysis are going to clash to some degree. There are some aspects of G2’s numbers that really aren’t as impressive as their film and they’re somewhat of a paper tiger in some respects. Raw gold per minute, kill agnostic gold per minute, and win-adjusted gold per minute and gold differential per minute are somewhat far from what you’d expect for a 14-4 team. It strongly suggests that G2’s wins, from a statistical standpoint, are more flimsy than what you’d think. More on this below.

Conversely, Schalke’s numbers were solid even during their loss streak. They were doing a lot of the right things despite having troublesome drafts during this time period and it suggests that they’re maybe slightly better than their overall record. Realistically we should have expected roughly two more wins from this team based on statistical expectation. Schalke are fairly strong losers with the fifth best gold per minute and differential per minute in losses but their primary struggle was in denying resources to their opponents. Schalke allowed the fourth most kill agnostic gold per minute to opponents this season only slightly edging out Astralis, SK, and Vitality. They also scored below average in GPM in the first twenty minutes.

I’ve been hyper critical of G2 in this portion but the fact of the matter is that they still stand ahead of Schalke by a lot in most of these measures. Perhaps more concerning for Schalke is that G2 rate as my #3 early game rating team and #2 in pace rating. Schalke are roughly average in these. G2 didn’t lose a single game this season when ahead in gold at the 15 minute mark and that’s concerning. They also accrued a +1042 gold differential at 15 (season) with only a 39% first blood rate suggesting what they’re doing is organic and not dependent on kills alone.

 

Series Outcomes
wins Losses Probability
3 0 37.025%
3 1 31.316%
3 2 17.658%
2 3 6.933%
1 3 4.827%
0 3 2.241%
(Series Win): 85.999%

 (G2 win% outcomes)

 

Qualitative Analysis:

This is a stylistic nightmare for Schalke and there is going to be a ton of pressure on Gilius to do some heavy lifting in the early game for his team in this series. Schalke’s early games haven’t been terrible but G2 have shown time and time again that if you’re not going to jump out to a lead on them then you’re probably not going to beat them. Perhaps more concerning is that historically (don’t look at this seasons numbers, small sample plus the two troll games), G2 are extremely difficult to close games out against and Schalke have only converted 60% of their game leads at 15 minutes to victories. It’s tough to consider backing Schalke with this in mind.

That said there are some adjustments I’d consider making for this series.

First, with the extra preparation time, Schalke could do a lot of work scripting out their early games so that it’s not as much of a liability. Typically extra time helps dogs more than favorites as it tends to help close the gap as long as the team isn’t stale or lacks versatility.

Second, I don’t give an experience edge either way as these are all stage-tested veterans even though G2 have definitely played in more big spots so the return to stage shouldn’t adversely affect either squad.

Third, “intangibles” aren’t really something you can quantify but G2 are very VERY creative as a team and willing to put ego aside for optimization so I could see them having something spicy cooked up for this matchup. I trust Grabbz and the coaching staff there to have this team prepared much more than they would for a regular season match. Slight bump to “playoff G2.”

Fourth, side choice matters a lot for teams that are aggressive in the draft and that’s a big edge for G2 in game one.

Fifth, Schalke are probably better than their record and more like the team we saw in the last two weeks based on their statistical performance as they had some really poor drafting during their losing streak that they seem to have figured out now. They’re better than perception so I’d give them a very slight adjustment upward overall.

All told G2 are just a more experienced, more versatile, better team top to bottom and if anything I’d give them an upward adjustment that’s bigger than the Schalke adjustment. I just don’t trust Schalke to jump out to leads consistently against this team and if you don’t do that G2 rarely lose from ahead (they haven’t this season). I think G2 handle this team in this series in what’s likely to be a 3-0. Shocking I know….

Unlike Fnatic, G2 are very very consistent and while they do sometimes mess around I don’t expect them to beat themselves in any of these games in this series like I expected Fnatic to yesterday based on what we had seen all season long.

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 26.526

Time-Implied: 27.584

Underdog Win: 23.104

“Gelati” Total Projection: 26.959 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 47.22% (G2 61.11% / S04 33.33%)

Volatility Rating:  G2 0.30002 / Schalke 0.26078 (League Avg: 0.3045)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

(alt) UNDER 28.5 @ -128 (strong)

(alt) UNDER 26.5 @ +107 (light)

UNDER 27.5 @ -108 (miniscule)

—-

Team Totals:

Schalke team total OVER 9.5 @ -118 (moderate)

G2 team total OVER 17.5 @ -109 (moderate-light)

 

G2 League Average Schalke
Combined Kills / game 29.260 27.73 24.476
Combined Kills / min 0.827 0.84 0.746
Kills per win 20.232 17.84 15.854
Kills per loss 7.250 9.46 7.503
Deaths per win 11.07 8.42 8.22
Deaths per loss 18.00 18.42 16.78
Average Margin of Victory (AMOV) 9.64 9.61 7.11
Average Margin of Defeat (AMOD) 10.75 9.83 9.33

 

This total ticked up a full kill from earlier this week which is already going to make me lean toward the under. I was inclined to take the under as it was for a few reasons. First, Schalke’s early game hasn’t been stellar and we could easily see two or three G2 speed run games. Second, I think the move back to the stage and overall gravitas of the situation is going to lead to unders anyway. It’s not that these aren’t all experienced veterans but there is a certain “vibe” with going back to live. I’d expect G2 to play this more seriously than their regular season games. The regular season meetings between these two were 20 and 28 kills and 34:46 and 33:39 respectively. If we get G2 stomps this is going to be an under, if we get longer, more controlled games I’d expect the under as well rather than the long+over combo we frequently saw from G2 during the season. Regardless, I like the under.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 33.872 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 33.68 / 33.69

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 58.33% (G2 61.11% / Schalke 55.56%)

Volatility Rating: G2 0.16819 /  S04 0.14648 (League Avg: 0.14865)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OVER 32:00 @ +112 (strong)

 

G2 Schalke
Average Game Time 34.01 33.74
Avg Game Time (in wins) 34.16 34.49
Avg Game Time (in losses) 33.488 32.983

 

These two have been surprisingly slow this season which is a little surprising but frequently they have superior scaling and no reason to rush things. I could see G2 blowing out a couple of these games early but it’s really tough not to take some of this over at this price which just looks wrong to me. Only 7 of G2’s games went under this total this season and 8 of Schalke’s. Given the playoff atmosphere, the move back to live (even for veterans) I could definitely see more of the same. Over time, under totals. More controlled games.

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OVER 1.5 barons @ +166 (strong)

Schalke first tower @ +135 (moderate)**

Schalke first herald @ +163 (moderate)**

Schalke first blood @ +103 (moderate)

OVER 12.5 towers @ +135 (light)

OVER 4.5 dragons @ -108 (very light)

** denotes advantage in a category that the opponent is also strong in, must be considered

Schalke first blood is the best value on the board. I’ll take a half stake per map on that. Given that I’m playing the time total overs and I don’t want to entirely double dip, I’m going to only play a half stake on the over 1.5 barons as well. 38.89% of G2 games went to a second baron and 55.56% of Schalke games did. 41.57% of all LEC games went to a second baron this season.

 

My Picks:

 

Map Spread: G2 -1.5 maps @ -303 (3.03 units)

Time Total: Map 1 OVER 32:00 @ +112 (1 unit)

Time Total: Map 2 OVER 32:00 @ +107 (1 unit)

Time Total: Map 3 OVER 32:00 @ +107 (1 unit)

Time Total: Map 4 OVER 32:00 @ -120 (1.2 units)

Time Total: Map 5 OVER 32:00 @ -116 (1.16 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 UNDER 28.5 @ -127 (1.27 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 UNDER 28.5 @ -135 (1.35 units)

Kill Total: Map 3 UNDER 28.5 @ -128 (1.28 units)

Kill Total: Map 4 UNDER 28.5 @ -130 (1.3 units)

Kill Total: Map 5 UNDER 28.5 @ -132 (1.32 units)

Prop: Map 1 S04 first blood @ +103 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 2 S04 first blood @ +105 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 3 S04 first blood @ +107 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 4 S04 first blood @ +105 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 5 S04 first blood @ +100 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 1 OVER 1.5 barons @ +166 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 2 OVER 1.5 barons @ +167 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 3 OVER 1.5 barons @ +169 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 4 OVER 1.5 barons @ +165 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 5 OVER 1.5 barons @ +157 (0.5 units)

 

 


 

LOL Championship Series (LCS)

Mid-Season Showdown Playoffs – Round 1 – Day 3

 

 

Team Power # Rank
TL 1.257858875 1
C9 1.035102205 2
TSM 0.7025595711 3
100T 0.3309602163 4
EG -0.05000079429 5
DIG -0.2445140292 6
CLG -0.4929108016 7
IMT -0.7448843223 8
FLY -0.7922481608 9
GGS -1.275042951 10

(Post-Spring Regular Season LCS Power Ratings)

 

 

Team Solo Mid -208 (-1.5 maps @ +113, -2.5 @ +337, +1.5 @ -385)

vs

Evil Geniuses +155 (+1.5 maps @ -143, +2.5 @ -476, -1.5 @ +276)

 

 

Map ML Price: TSM -145 / EG +113

Total Maps Played: 3.5 maps (over -323 / under +235), 4.5 maps (over +164 / under -213)

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -106 / under -122)

Kill Spread: -4.5 @ -109 / +4.5 @ -120

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 10.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -244 / under +183) (over -109 / under -120)

 (Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

TSM Tale of the Tape EG
-1136.9 Gold Diff @ 10 min -196.5
-110.9 Gold Diff @ 15 min -422.6
22.2 Gold Diff @ 20 min -966.0
3.9 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 2.2
8.2 Gold Diff / min first 20 18.6
187.8 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 17.3
1816.5 Gold /min (GPM) 1772.5
45.5 Gold / min vs Avg 1.5
74.7 Gold Diff / min 17.3
1.1 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 0.2
1641.0 Kill Agnostic GPM 1587.4
53.9 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 18.6
1926.1 GPM in wins 1898.4
310.4 Gold Diff per min in wins 264.0
1658.3 GPM in losses 1615.1
-265.7 Gold Diff per min in losses -291.2
83.8 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 26.4
9.6 Win-Adjusted GPM -18.0
23.7 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -22.7
46.7 Dragon Control % 63.0
61.0 Herald Control % 41.2
71.0 Baron Control % 44.4
6.0 Quality Wins? 5.0
46.2 % of wins as Quality 50.0

 

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

 none

 

IMPORTANT:

One of the strange things about handicapping the Western leagues is that playoffs quite literally double your sample size for some teams depending on how many series they play. Keep in mind that all numbers you will see in this write-up INCLUDE the TSM series loss against Liquid last week. I’ll be doing some comparisons of pre and post that series within this.

 

Quantitative Analysis:

As mentioned above, adding another 22% of games to your sample in one series can impact your data quite a bit. I’ll put series outcomes just based on the regular season performance as well as after TSM’s series vs Liquid below.

TSM Tale of the Tape EG
731.6 Gold Diff @ 10 min -196.5
151.0 Gold Diff @ 15 min -422.6
165.5 Gold Diff @ 20 min -966.0
22.8 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 0.1
46.1 Gold Diff / min first 20 18.6
234.3 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 17.3
1837.9 Gold /min (GPM) 1772.5
64.8 Gold / min vs Avg -0.6
121.8 Gold Diff / min 17.3
1.7 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 0.2
1660.6 Kill Agnostic GPM 1587.4
85.7 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 18.6
1930.0 GPM in wins 1898.4
317.3 Gold Diff per min in wins 264.0
1653.8 GPM in losses 1615.1
-269.1 Gold Diff per min in losses -291.2
126.2 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 21.7
13.1 Win-Adjusted GPM -18.4
29.9 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -23.3
47.1 Dragon Control % 63.0
62.9 Herald Control % 41.2
76.0 Baron Control % 44.4
6.0 Quality Wins? 5.0
50.0 % of wins as Quality 50.0

(just regular season trending/season composite)

If you look at these two teams just based on the regular season data this isn’t a difficult decision to make at all. TSM are far more consistent, more difficult to defeat, have significantly better kill-agnostic economy metrics and win-adjusted economy metrics. They win harder, make things more difficult for their opponents in losses, and have a stronger overall early game.

Realistically these two teams are likely closer to the regular season performance measures for comparison but if we were to just take the average of the two series outcome predictions we’d get 65.8595% chance of series victory for TSM which would make this much closer to market and likely why it’s sitting there at the current time. Personally I’d weight this more toward the regular season sample. I’ll discuss more below.

 

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
3 1 28.374%
3 0 26.356%
3 2 20.364%
2 3 11.397%
1 3 8.888%
0 3 4.621%
(Series Win): 75.093%

 

 (TSM win% outcomes BEFORE Liquid series)

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
3 1 21.396%
3 2 19.878%
2 3 17.245%
1 3 16.103%
3 0 15.353%
0 3 10.025%
(Series Win): 56.626%

 

(TSM win% outcomes AFTER Liquid series)

 

 

Qualitative Analysis:

The main advantage for Evil Geniuses coming into this match is that they’ve had two full weeks to prepare for this match as well as a full best-of-five series worth of film to dissect. This absolutely should not be ignored. That’s a lot of time to come up with early game scripts, creative drafts, any kind of film advantage you could get and then put it into place. I’d expect EG to be more competitive in this series than we’ve seen them this season.

That said, I don’t think they have a major advantage at any position. I think they’re stronger at support and top but not by much and mid and jungle go to TSM for me. The tricky part about evaluating this matchup is that I don’t think Evil Geniuses are going to play this straight up. They’re going to get Jiizuke out of lane and try to play the map better than TSM do rather than just laning against them pound for pound which I think is the best way for them to attack this series.

I think this will be more competitive than most people think but only because of the preparation advantage Evil Geniuses have. If we see in game one that they haven’t used that to their advantage with aggressive counterpicks or a creative draft concept then I’m going to go heavy on TSM.

Just for full disclosure, I hammered TSM at -128 on the opener which was just a really soft number for this match but I won’t be tracking that for my public record. Pre-Liquid match I made this line more than -300 in their favor and made an adjustment down to roughly -250 for the preparation advantage EG had. The market makers and most models seem to have settled on around this 60-66% price range which makes sense if you take the numbers AFTER the Liquid series but I think you’re better off weighting toward before that huge addition to your overall sample. I don’t hate TSM at this price still and like it up to around here so proceed with caution. I think they should be about a -250 favorite all things considered so this is still ok but I’m not going to recommend to my readers to back TSM at the top of the market price.

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 28.661

Time-Implied: 28.75

Underdog Win: 30.773

“Gelati” Total Projection: 28.902 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 56.566% (TSM 40.91% / EG 72.22%)

Volatility Rating:  TSM 0.24625 / EG 0.26723 (League Avg: 0.2865)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

(alt) OVER 24.5 @ -128 (VERY strong)

OVER 25.5 @ -106 (strong)

(alt) OVER 26.5 @ +113 (moderate)

—-

Team Totals:

EG team total OVER 10.5 @ -122 (strong)

TSM team total UNDER 14.5 @ -114 (moderate)

TSM League Average EG
Combined Kills / game 27.006 26.00 31.417
Combined Kills / min 0.794 0.76 0.851
Kills per win 16.736 16.98 18.481
Kills per loss 12.29 9.37 10.25
Deaths per win 7.38 8.57 10.80
Deaths per loss 18.56 17.26 20.00
Average Margin of Victory (AMOV) 8.46 8.36 8.1
Average Margin of Defeat (AMOD) 9.22 8.68 10

 

So even after considering that this is playoffs, higher stakes, more pressure ,etc. I absolutely love this over. My only reservation is a 1-3-1 strategy with Jiizuke but EG more or less only know one way to play and it’s aggressive. Both TSM and EG have been very high scoring in losses as well.

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 34.96 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 34.26 / 34.26

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 57.83% (TSM 54.54% / EG 61.11%)

Volatility Rating: TSM 0.14971 / EG 0.16494 (League Avg: 0.1734)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

UNDER 33:00 @ +183 (moderate-strong)

 

TSM EG
Average Game Time 34.12 35.80
Avg Game Time (in wins) 33.44 36.52
Avg Game Time (in losses) 32.20 34.91

 

I’m not entirely sure what this number is about, in fact, as I’m writing this it’s now off the board so check back for an update. I’d obviously take this under. I like the under 33 at anything +120 or better. Otherwise pass. We’re likely to get long games but that price is just too far off.

UPDATE: new odds are -109 / -120 on the 33:00. No plays by me.

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

EG first tower @ -105 (moderate)**

EG first dragon @ -132 (moderate)

TSM first tower @ -128 (light)**

OVER 1.5 barons @ +137 (light)

** denotes advantage in a category that the opponent is also strong in, must be considered

I like EG first dragon quite a bit in this series. EG have been a dragon stacking team and TSM have been a pseudo-chameleon team. It makes sense too given how strong the EG bottom lane has been playing around counterpicks for Ignar. Another alternative to the time total is the over dragons and barons which I like quite a bit in this series over the higher priced over time total. I’ll take the over barons at a significantly stronger price. 41% of NA games have gone over this total.

 

My Picks:

 

Time totals are OTB at the moment but read above instructions, will update this post if I take them

UPDATE: no time total plays

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 24.5 @ -128 (1.28 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 24.5 @ -128 (1.28 units)

Kill Total: Map 3 OVER 24.5 @ -128 (1.28 units)

Kill Total: Map 4 OVER 24.5 @ -128 (1.28 units)

Kill Total: Map 5 OVER 24.5 @ -128 (1.28 units)

Prop: Map 1 EG first dragon @ -132 (0.66 units)

Prop: Map 2 EG first dragon @ -132 (0.66 units)

Prop: Map 3 EG first dragon @ -132 (0.66 units)

Prop: Map 4 EG first dragon @ -132 (0.66 units)

Prop: Map 5 EG first dragon @ -132 (0.66 units)

Prop: Map 1 OVER 1.5 barons @ +137 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 OVER 1.5 barons @ +137 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 3 OVER 1.5 barons @ +137 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 4 OVER 1.5 barons @ +137 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 5 OVER 1.5 barons @ +137 (1 unit)

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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