Friday, March 19th Recap

 

Afreeca vs Nongshim (Net: -1.12 units)

In some ways it’s not all that surprising that this match between two incredibly sloppy teams ended up as sloppy as it did but I was still shaking my head JagsFan.gif style …

Jaguars Fan GIFs | Tenor

The first game of this series was one of the weirdest games I’ve seen in any league this split. Afreeca’s bottom lane got first blooded by Tristana Alistar and if anybody has seen Tristana recently you know that’s trouble. It’s just this extremely difficult to stop snowball. Afreeca kept up on neutral objectives stacking up three dragons and punishing Bay who had an absolutely awful game on Syndra. Nongshim had a fed Tristana and managed to let Afreeca back into this game through a series of really stupid decisions and Deokdam got picked at a crucial juncture that allowed Afreeca to stay in this game.

Then it got weird…

There was this almost comical series of attempted back doors by Nongshim that were fought off by a combination of Afreeca and inhibitors respawning. This went on for another baron… and then some more… and it was honestly looking like one of those “there’s no way Afreeca win this game” moments but just like Afreeca do they managed to lose it. It’s honestly hard to explain just go back and watch the last 15 minutes of this one.

Game two Deokdam got fed on Tristana again… are you noticing a pattern here?

Afreeca simply aren’t clean enough to not ban Tristana. There’s a lot of teams in the world that aren’t clean enough to not ban her right now. I’m not sure how long that’s going to take people to realize but she’s going to be a machine until then. The rest of this game devolved into a full on solo queue with constant fighting, zero map awareness, seemingly improvised macro game. Just awful play from both sides. It was hilarious to watch but it was bad. It’s incredible to me how consistently Afreeca end up in these games. I mentioned in my writeup yesterday that it legitimately just seems like they get distracted at times and that reared its ugly head again today.

This series was an absolute clown fiesta and honestly one of those series where nobody really won. I’m legitimately downgrading both of these teams in my qualitative grading. Sometimes these just happen and maybe the pressure of battling for playoffs got to these two but this was an embarrassing series for both teams. Tons of mistakes. I hope neither ends up making playoffs.

T1 vs DRX (Net: +1.905 units)

DRX got off to a great start in the first game of this match and could have probably closed it out against most teams but the veteran version of T1 have so much more poise than their younger counterparts. I know I keep harping on this and I sound like a broken record but I cannot emphasize enough just how critically important it is to NOT collapse from a deficit. DRX rarely start games quickly and are frequently the ones doing what T1 had to do to them in this game. I’m absolutely positive the younger version of T1 lose this first game.

The second game was an absolute rout by T1.

As this season has gone on I’ve mentioned that DRX were simultaneously “fraudulent” in regards to their record while also steadily improving. This team is good and improving and if they can have early games like they did in this game one and make that even remotely close to consistent then they’re going to evolve into a really solid team come Summer. Being one-dimensional was their biggest weakness, if they can become more versatile look out.

T1 with this lineup look like they might be the clear #3 and possibly even just included in that elite three. Their numbers when running this version are a cut above Hanwha but slightly below Gen.G and DAMWON still so they might just be in their own tier there. Regardless they’re heating up for playoffs and Faker is in great form which is terrifying…. it’s still insane to me that he’s this good after this much time. People don’t give that enough credit.

 

JD Gaming vs LNG Esports (Net: -1.6 units)

JDG just outclassed LNG in every way in this series and did so many things that just make a lot of sense right now in this series. Tristan snowballs really hard? Ban it. M1kuya tries to play Chogath against the tank matchups? Camp it so he never gets stacks.

It’s honestly remarkable how much JDG have turned things around. This was quite literally a team that was running the same set play over and over and just praying that it worked and it did for awhile but I had concerns about how long it would take teams to catch up. They did, and they started losing. Maybe the burnout was real, maybe they cut back on playing and practice time to focus on the mental game and they weren’t practicing much and are now turning it back up for playoffs.  Obviously this is speculation but it sure as hell looks exactly like that’s what happened.

JDG are in pre-Worlds 2020 form again. There’s still holes and hiccups from time to time but they’re showing that they’re one of the quality teams in the LPL and have answered a lot of the questions I had just weeks ago.

LNG… LNG just can’t beat actual good teams. This top trio regardless of the top laner just can’t handle good top trios. They really are the LPL gatekeepers and they’re likely going to get demolished in playoffs.

Edward Gaming vs eStar (Net: -2.7 units)

There’s really not much to say about this one. EDG just obliterated eStar. No let-down spot here…

LPL Net Total: -4.3 units

LCK Net Total: +0.785 units

 

Daily Net Total: -3.515 units

 

Current Week (March 15th-21st): -8.985 units (ROI: -10.55%)

 

 


 

LOL Pro League (China)

Week 9 – Day 5

 

Victory Five +802 (+1.5 maps @ +232, -1.5 @ +2000)

vs

FunPlus Phoenix -2000 (-1.5 maps @ -312)

 

 

Map ML Price: V5 +449 / FPX -714

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +268 / under -370)

Kill Total: 27.5 (over -108 / under -120)

Kill Spread: +10.5 @ -122 / -10.5 @ -106

Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 18.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over +151 / under -200)

 

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

V5 +1.5 maps @ +238 (strong)

OVER 2.5 maps @ +274 (strong)

V5 map moneyline @ +466 (moderate)

V5 series moneyline @ +838 (moderate-light)

 

V5 got completely whooped by TOP Esports in their last match which comes as no surprise but they’ve now dropped 10 games in a row, 5 matches in a row, albeit to difficult competition (TOP, RA, JDG, Suning, LNG is debatable but still). In their last series they actually got back to what they’re good at which was a breath of fresh air but it’s really tough to judge this teams motivation at the moment. They’ve been eliminated from playoffs, FPX are battling for a top two/four seed and V5 haven’t had much success at all against top level teams this season.

The “value” is obviously going to point to V5 in this case but typically when books make a line like this it’s more or less discouraging making a play on the favorite. In other words it’s inflated.

This series and the others this week lead me down a bit of a rabbit hole regarding favorites in the LPL who are utterly destroying their competition compared to other leagues. The LPL is the only major league where the favorites are covering the kill spread a majority of the time. In fact, the only other time that’s happened in the past three years was in the LCK Summer 2020. This lead me to look into why this is happening.

A vast majority of the teams in the LPL are not only extremely linear in that they specialize in whatever “thing” it is that they do (I call it “brand”) but they have absolutely no understanding of how to adjust when they’re taken off of that game plan. Adjustments in the LPL happen at a snail’s pace in terms of the overall macro perspective of the league. The bad teams are EXTREMELY bad once they get behind. Very few of them ever put any structures in place to stop the bleeding or even attempt to make a come back. Those techniques are simply absent in the majority of LPL games.

It’s not just on the underdogs though. Favorites are significantly more aggressive in wanting to end games in the LPL and they will take more risks to close a game out. In other words MOST LPL teams actively try to do what I like to call “very win” or overkill or “win hard.” It’s why we see fewer towers taken, shorter game times, fewer inhibitors taken, and about 4% fewer winners when down at the 20 minute mark league wide.

More on this during the offseason, I’ll be doing a recap style writeup on my handicapping through the first half, the good, bad, and ugly as well as the macro trends I’m noticing and how I can take advantage of potential adjustments moving into the Summer. For now… I return to the match at hand.

I’ve been backing underdogs this week and all of that above text summarizes back to the basic principle that I’m just going to stay away in most of these cases unless I see a good reason not to.

In this case I’ll pass on a side here. You could had FunPlus at -1.5 maps @ -164 earlier in the week like I did for my Pick of the Week on The Gold Card Podcast but at this number I’m fine passing.

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 32.685

Time-Implied: 29.485

Underdog Win: 28.983

“Gelati” Total Projection: 30.229 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 45.5% (FPX 51.61% / V5 39.39%)

Volatility Rating: FPX 0.29582 / V5 0.31727 (League Avg: 0.3041)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none

—-

Team Totals:

V5 team total OVER 8.5 kills @ -111 (strong)

FPX team total UNDER 18.5 @ -125 (light)

 

Kills per win 19.429 16.573
Kills per loss 12.410 13.996
Deaths per win 9.64 7.08

                                                                                        FPX                                          V5

Usually when I see the underdog over and favorite under the kill spread becomes very appetizing particularly if it’s a big one. That said, Victory Five are losing by an average of 10.8 kills per game composite, 10.48 kills for the full season. In their most recent games they’ve been utterly obliterated for an average margin of defeat of 12. V5 have also been terrible against the spread this season at 6-10 as underdogs albeit with an average spread of +7.

As for the game total, this is an extremely high number and it suggests an over but I’m just not sure how much of a fight V5 will put up here. Recently their KPL has been very high but their season long number is just 8.4 kills. If I had to take a position here, the over game total would be my play but I’m simply going to pass. It’s just too easy for FPX to run these games over in 25 minutes and even though these teams could hit that total in that time, it becomes significantly less likely.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 29.688 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 29.52 / 29.67

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 35.83% (FPX 32.26% / V5 39.39%)

Volatility Rating: FPX 0.1875 / V5 0.16164 (League Avg: 0.16217)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none

FPX V5
Average Game Time 29.24 30.13
Avg Game Time (in wins) 27.34 28.58
Avg Game Time (in losses) 33.904 31.017

 

You’ve got to pay -200 for the under here. My guess is that FPX do steamroll this, for similar reasons to the ones I’ve discussed. They’ve also been remarkably consistent in running over bad teams and V5 lose quickly. That said, this price is about right to me so I’ll pass.

 

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

V5 first tower @ +184 (VERY strong)*

V5 first herald @ -108 (moderate)

UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -164 (very light)

 

V5 first herald is a decent look. They tend to focus on that but I’m less confident in that because they’ve shown recently a willingness to play for scaling and dragons. There’s a strong chance FPX’s lanes just overwhelm them here too.

I was going to go against the model and take the under 12.5 towers here but I’m just going to pass.

 

 

My Picks:

 

no wagers

 

 


Royal Never Give Up +133 (+1.5 maps @ -244, -1.5 @ +363)

vs

TOP Esports -169 (-1.5 maps @ +184, +1.5 @ -556)

 

 

Map ML Price: RNG +124 / TOP -159

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over -102 / under -125)

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -119 / under -109)

Kill Spread: +4.5 @ -119 / -4.5 @ -109)

Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 15.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over +111 / under -145)

 

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

TOP Tale of the Tape Royal Never GU
2505.5 Gold Diff @ 10 min 74.9
1725.2 Gold Diff @ 15 min 1122.3
298.1 Gold Diff @ 20 min 1431.6
137.0 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -6.3
190.6 Gold Diff / min first 20 68.0
584.6 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 543.6
1940.9 Gold /min 1891.9
135.9 Gold / min vs Avg 86.9
256.1 Gold Diff / min 174.3
3.5 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 2.4
1687.0 Kill Agnostic GPM 1671.6
149.0 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 104.7
55.3 Dragon Control % 57.4
66.7 Herald Control % 50.0
71.1 Baron Control % 70.5
16.0 Quality Wins? 9.0
76.2 % of wins as Quality 39.1

 

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none

 

The model thinks this is pretty close but a look at a few of the below surface level metrics metrics like GPM in losses and win-adjusted economy make me think TOP is actually the best team in the LPL. TOP have BY FAR the best Win-Adjusted gold differential per minute in the LPL. They also have the second best gold differential per minute in losses, in a tier all their own with WE.  They’re #1 in GPM in losses (1710), #2 in kill agnostic GPM, #1 in kill agnostic gold differential and are the “strongest winners” with a +439 gold differential per minute in wins. RNG are a full tier below (but still good) in all of these measures. Part of that is because they’re more of a macro/scaling style of team but teams like TOP make it extremely difficult to play that style of game. In fact, they welcome it.

Admittedly this is a bit more of a “gut” handicap but I think TOP come out on top here and this might not be as competitive as everyone thinks. I somewhat hope I’m wrong but this looks like a TOP smash spot to me. I played TOP earlier in the week on open at -145. I’d be less in love with it but would still play it at the current number. RNG are very VERY good but I do think they’ve gotten away with murder on more than one occasion and TOP aren’t the same type of team that the other elite teams are.  I also think they’ve got an edge at every position besides jungle on an individual basis.

There’s a reasonable case for taking RNG. I can definitely see it. Both of these teams are good, RNG handled the most similar stylistic comparisons in the league to TOP (FPX and IG). I just think TOP have better pound-for-pound player quality and being the smart guy in the room isn’t going to be enough in this situation. The ropadope around the map isn’t going to work against TOP. They’re just too sharp.

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 27.257

Time-Implied: 26.425

Underdog Win: 27.747

“Gelati” Total Projection: 26.515 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 41.88% (TOP 48.28% / RNG 35.48%)

Volatility Rating:  TOP 0.031896 / RNG 0.28888 (League Avg: 0.3041)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

(alt) UNDER 25.5 @ +117 (moderate-strong)

UNDER 26.5 @ -109 (moderate)

(alt) UNDER 27.5 @ -125 (moderate)

—-

Team Totals:

RNG team total OVER 11.5 @ -125 (VERY strong)

TOP team total OVER 15.5 @ -116 (moderate)

 

Kills per win 17.775 17.216
Kills per loss 10.531 9.125
Deaths per win 6.33 8.17

(TOP left, RNG right)

No plays here. Obviously the model likes the team total over for both of these teams given the frequency with which they win. It even overcomes the weighting.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 30.805 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 31.15 / 31.16

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 32.93% (TOP 20.69% / RNG 45.16%)

Volatility Rating: TOP 0.16094 / RNG 0.16728 (League Avg: 0.16217)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

UNDER 32:00 @ -145 (moderate-strong)

 

TOP RNG
Average Game Time 29.65 31.96
Avg Game Time (in wins) 30.72 32.22
Avg Game Time (in losses) 30.598 31.202

 

I’m going to play the under. I think these games are probably going to be hotly contested but it’s going to hinge on key plays early and in the middle of the games. Both of these teams possess exceptional closing speed. This could be two or three lopsided stomps.

 

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

*** strong suggestions on all but both teams great at the firsts, biggest edge on the board is TOP first tower @ -123

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -233 (strong)

UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -102 (moderate)

OVER 1.5 barons @ +135 (light)

 

A lot of how you handle the props in this series has to do with your perception of how close this series will end up being.

I looked at both of these teams against other non-LNG playoff teams and between the two of them only 4 out of 26 games went over the 12.5 towers. I’ll be playing that. It’s a little counterintuitive but like I mentioned in the time total section, both of these teams are exceptional at closing with any sort of lead and we’re also getting a significantly better price than you normally do because of the moneyline price.

My Picks:

 

Moneyline: TOP Esports -169 (1.69 units)

Map Spread: TOP -1.5 maps @ +184 (0.5 units)

Time Total: Map 1 UNDER 32:00 @ -145 (1.45 units)

Time Total: Map 2 UNDER 32:00 @ -154 (1.54 units)

Time Total: Map 3 UNDER 32:00 @ -139 (1.39 units)

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -233 (2.33 units)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -217 (2.17 units)

Prop: Map 3 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -217 (2.17 units)

 


LOL Champions Korea (LCK)

Week 9 – Day 3

 

Liiv Sandbox -154 (-1.5 maps @ +189, +1.5 @ -476)

vs

Fredit Brion +120 (+1.5 maps @ -250, -1.5 @ +327)

 

 

Map ML Price: LSB -147 / BRO +116

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +104 / under -132)

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -119 / under -109)

Kill Spread: -3.5 @ -127 / +3.5 @ -102

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 10.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -108 / under -120)

 

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

LSB Tale of the Tape BRO
575.3 Gold Diff @ 10 min -416.3
968.5 Gold Diff @ 15 min -1008.0
1355.1 Gold Diff @ 20 min -53.1
1723.8 GPM first 20 min 1650.9
34.2 Gold Diff / min first 20 -92.7
-208.9 Gold Diff / min ROG -267.7
1759.3 Gold /min 1700.4
33.0 Gold / min vs Avg 33.0
-78.9 Gold Diff / min -144.4
-1.1 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -2.0
1593.9 Kill Agnostic GPM 1568.4
-62.5 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -111.7
44.4 Dragon Control % 48.1
51.6 Herald Control % 30.2
31.8 Baron Control % 36.2
11.0 Quality Wins? 8.0
55.0 % of wins as Quality 72.7

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

LSB series moneyline @ -154 (VERY strong)

LSB -1.5 maps @ +189 (strong)

LSB map moneyline @ -147 (strong)

 

Sandbox are a team I’ve discussed a lot this season. They’re clearly better than their record and likely a little better than their numbers as well although that’s the primary informer of the model (obviously). Brion have had a few standout performances that are sticking out in people’s minds. Sweeping the two top teams in the LCK is impressive… what they’ve done in their other matches? Not so much.

This is a pretty straightforward value Sandbox play to me. The individual player model doesn’t say they’re better at literally every position but given the depth of champion pool for each of these players I think it’s safe to say they have an edge at four out of five positions, at least to me, the exception being Delight who has been outstanding this season. UmTi has a case as well.

Sure, Sandbox could turn back into a pumpkin and go back to making the stupid mistakes that plagued them throughout the early season but they’ve looked like what I thought they’d be going into the season in the past few weeks and I think this team has a decent chance at making playoffs with back-to-back-to-back wins to finish the season.

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 24.921

Time-Implied: 24.712

Underdog Win: 24.144

“Gelati” Total Projection: 24.811 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 46.97% (LSB 57.58% / BRO 36.36%)

Volatility Rating: LSB 0.27281 / BRO 0.32458 (League Avg: 0.3083)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

(alt) UNDER 24.5 @ -122 (moderate)

UNDER 23.5 @ -109 (light)

—-

Team Totals:

LSB team total UNDER 13.5 @ -105 (moderate)

BRO team total UNDER 10.5 @ -108 (light)

Combined Kills / game 26.660 22.620
Combined Kills / min 0.805 0.683
Kills per win 17.906 15.599
Kills per loss 8.545 7.619
Deaths per win 7.00 7.00

 

(LSB left, BRO right)

The interesting thing here is that LSB have lower combined kills per minute and per game against non-elite teams. Brion are averagine 0.69 combined kills per minute and LSB 0.7447. IF you take those numbers and the projected time which looks to be roughly 33 minutes you’d get around 24. The question here is whether or not you think the pressure of this match impacts this negatively or positively for the kill total. I can’t get a read either way. I think the under is how I’d play this if I had to because I think Sandbox have a much stronger chance of just running this match over while Brion are going to be a more scaling look regardless.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 33.219 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 32.82 / 32.5

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 46.97% (LSB 48.48% / BRO 45.45%)

Volatility Rating: LSB 0.15971 / BRO 0.14935 (League Avg: 0.15609)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none

LSB BRO
Average Game Time 32.97 33.47
Avg Game Time (in wins) 30.43 34.48
Avg Game Time (in losses) 34.239 32.812

 

Sandbox have a higher likelihood of snowballing a game and winning quickly but I’m passing here.

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

LSB first herald @ -147 (strong)

Brion first dragon @ -120 (light)

OVER 4.5 dragons @ -122 (very light)

 

I definitely like first herald for LSB here.

 

 

My Picks:

 

Moneyline: LSB -154 (2.31 units)

Map Spread: LSB -1.5 maps @ +189 (0.75 units)

Prop: Map 1 LSB first herald @ -147 (1.47 units)

Prop: Map 2 LSB first herald @ -122 (1.22 units)

Prop: Map 3 LSB first herald @ -147 (1.47 units)

 


KT Rolster +441 (+1.5 maps @ +126, -1.5 @ +1100)

vs

Gen.G -714 (-1.5 maps @ -161)

 

Map ML Price: GEG -435 / KT +307

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +165 / under -213)

Kill Total: 22.5 (over -120 / under -108)

Kill Spread: +7.5 @ -115 / -7.5 @ -112

Team Kill Totals: 7.5 / 14.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -118 / under -111)

 

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

GEG Tale of the Tape KT
-40.0 Gold Diff @ 10 min -505.3
-199.7 Gold Diff @ 15 min -1394.8
-862.5 Gold Diff @ 20 min -1844.5
1741.7 GPM first 20 min 1680.6
56.1 Gold Diff / min first 20 -68.1
392.5 Gold Diff / min ROG -133.3
1873.9 Gold /min 1767.5
36.0 Gold / min vs Avg 34.0
157.2 Gold Diff / min -78.1
2.2 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -1.1
1692.2 Kill Agnostic GPM 1621.5
116.3 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -48.9
52.6 Dragon Control % 38.0
68.7 Herald Control % 41.8
71.1 Baron Control % 41.1
14.0 Quality Wins? 4.0
60.9 % of wins as Quality 28.6

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

Gen.G -1.5 maps @ -161 (light)

Gen.G series moneyline @ -714 (light)

 

This is two teams going in polar opposite directions. KT Rolster look like a dumpster that had a fire going in it that was tipped on its side mid-season. They’ve dropped 10 of their past 11 games and all five series. They did show a different look in game two against Hanwha on Thursday playing the Lee Sin for Gideon and brough in Noah for his debut in game two. I think ultimately KT Rolster’s problem is that they’re extremely linear (until these new looks) and they aren’t even particularly good at that one trick like DRX was for the first half of the season. If you’re going to do that you need to be good at stabilizing, minimizing losses early, and actually good at team fighting. They have been none of those things and lack the disciplined required to play that way.

Gen.G have had some rough matches in their past few which is influencing their tale of the tape numbers which do factor in trending performance. Generally speaking Gen.G just do what KT do but better and they also have the added upside of consistent early games and the potential for explosive openings like we saw against DAMWON. Gen.G are one of the class teams of the LCK and a lot of people might point to their loss against Brion or Sandbox as reasons not to back them to 2-0 here. You might even cite that they can’t get the #1 seed as a reason but they’re still battling for #2 which would give them a bye and the coveted avoiding of DAMWON until finals.

I think Gen.G are going to steamroll here. KT look like a hot mess and Gen.G are one of the better teams in the league. I’ll take a piece of the -1.5 maps.

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 24.179

Time-Implied: 24.289

Underdog Win: 24.968

“Gelati” Total Projection: 24.271 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 58.74% (GEG 52.78% / KT 64.71%)

Volatility Rating:  GEG 0.28753 / KT 0.33113 (League Avg: 0.3083)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OVER 22.5 @ -120 (moderate)

(alt) OVER 21.5 @ -152 (light)

(alt) OVER 23.5 @ -102 (light)

—-

Team Totals:

KT team total OVER 7.5 @ -125 (strong)

Gen.G team total UNDER 14.5 @ -112 (moderate)

 

Combined Kills / game 23.715 25.026
Combined Kills / min 0.733 0.709
Kills per win 16.685 18.920
Kills per loss 6.048 7.256
Deaths per win 7.35 9.93

 

I thought about this one for awhile and usually that’s a sign that you shouldn’t make a play on it. The over feels right but I just think there’s too much of a chance KT just get run over.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 33.696 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 33.29 / 33.23

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 58.74% (GEG 52.78% / KT 64.71%)

Volatility Rating: GEG 0.15426 / KT 0.18624 (League Avg: 0.15609)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OVER 32:00 @ -118 (moderate)

 

GEG KT
Average Game Time 32.37 35.03
Avg Game Time (in wins) 32.15 37.46
Avg Game Time (in losses) 32.747 33.324

 

Everything points to an over here but I’m just worried about a Gen.G steamroll game. They’re averaging a shade over 31:00 against KT style teams (attempt to scale). Gen.G might not use it every game but they still have one of the more potent early games in the world and are one of the best to utilize Renekton+Nidalee which earns them so much draft equity as well. I’m trusting my gut on this one and taking the under against the model suggestions.

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

Gen.G first blood @ -161 (strong)

 

I don’t usually like laying this much money on first blood but Gen.G are remarkably consistent. I’ll take a half stake.

 

My Picks:

 

Map Spread: Gen.G -1.5 maps @ -164 (1.64 units)

Time Total: Map 1 UNDER 32:00 @ -111 (1.11 units)

Time Total: Map 2 UNDER 32:00 @ -111 (1.11 units)

Time Total: Map 3 UNDER 33:00 @ -132 (1.32 units)

Prop: Map 1 Gen.G first blood @ -161 (0.805 units)

Prop: Map 2 Gen.G first blood @ -164 (0.82 units)

Prop: Map 3 Gen.G first blood @ -152 (0.76 units)

 


LOL Championship Series (LCS)

Mid-Season Playoff

Week 1 – Day 1

 

Team Solo Mid +142 (+1.5 maps @ -149, +2.5 @ -500, -1.5 @ +307, -2.5 @ +850)

vs

Team Liquid -182 (-1.5 maps @ +116, -2.5 @ +342, +1.5 @ -435, +2.5 @ -2000)

 

Map ML Price: TSM +126 / TL -161

Total Maps Played: 3.5 maps (over -294 / under +216), 4.5 maps (over +179 / under -233)

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -105 / under -123)

Kill Spread: +4.5 @ -118 / -4.5 @ -111

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 13.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -143 / under +110)

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual STATISTICAL performance against other players at their position)

TL Tale of the Tape TSM
1270.1 Gold Diff @ 10 min 731.6
2422.3 Gold Diff @ 15 min 151.0
2688.6 Gold Diff @ 20 min 165.5
74.8 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 21.2
137.6 Gold Diff / min first 20 46.1
430.5 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 234.3
1866.1 Gold /min 1837.9
90.3 Gold / min vs Avg 62.1
200.4 Gold Diff / min 121.8
2.8 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 1.7
1674.3 Kill Agnostic GPM 1660.6
126.8 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 85.7
114.4 Win-Adjusted GPM 24.8
64.1 Dragon Control % 47.1
77.8 Herald Control % 62.9
62.5 Baron Control % 76.0
5.0 Quality Wins? 10.0
71.4 % of wins as Quality 83.3

(composite blend of trending and season long)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

UNDER 3.5 maps @ +216 (miniscule)

 

Quantitative Analysis:

Liquid are the better team here and they’re significantly more convincing in most of their wins despite the occasional hiccup. They’re also the toughest out in the LCS in that they have the best gold differential per minute in losses. TSM are no slouches either though ranking #1 in gold per minute in losses and #3 in gold differential per minute in losses. Liquid lead the league in win-adjusted gold differential per minute.

This has been a bit of a wild ride of a line. It opened in the -140 range for Liquid, got beat all the way up to the -230’s and has since settled back down to the -180 to -200 range today. My model makes this series price  +/- 169 (or roughly -192 / +149 with evenly distributed vig). I won’t be making a side play on this series. There’s not enough value on either side. At the opening price you could have had a small value on Liquid, at the high end you could have had a good price on TSM but it’s essentially settled in the middle. Below are my series outcome probabilities after which I’ll qualitatively handicap this series.

Conclusion: no actionable edge on market price

 

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
3 1 23.824%
3 2 20.533%
3 0 18.428%
2 3 15.550%
1 3 13.662%
0 3 8.003%
(Series Win): 62.785%
Over 3.5 maps 68.173%
Under 3.5 maps 31.827%
Over 4.5 maps 33.977%
Under 4.5 maps 66.023%

 

 

Qualitative Analysis:

This is a battle of two “chameleon” teams. What I mean by that is that you have dragon centric teams and herald centric teams. You also have teams that consistently approach the game from a neutral standpoint, opting for whatever fits the composition or their opponent. Being a “chameleon” team requires versatility and adaptability and most teams aren’t good enough to do it consistently unless they’re significantly better than their competition particularly in lanes. In many ways, TSM have been like a diet version of Liquid who are the superior team pound-for-pound here.

To me, the way TSM win this series is to get Lost onto Tristana or Jinx, some ADC that can manage the 1v1 and they index into getting SwordArt onto the map to help propel PowerofEvil into the late game sooner rather than later. While typically a control mage player, PowerofEvil is capable of playing a tempo game when he gets matchups where he can get priority. Jensen is a lot more willing to break parity with a pick that gets out on the map like Ekko or Twisted Fate for example.

When you have two teams playing to adapt to their opponents a lot of things can happen and it ultimately will come down to who has the better in-series metagame read for the day. Based on what we’ve seen so far this season, Liquid just have a few extra tools in their toolbox, particularly in the mid lane that could get them an edge in a longer series but this series will still primarily come down to execution.

Consider that extra, more targeted preparation time makes this a closer series than the results we’ve seen this season.

Conclusion: Liquid slight edge, more tools at their disposal

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 25.304

Time-Implied: 23.138

Underdog Win: 26.323

“Gelati” Total Projection: 23.848 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 44.44% (TL 33.33% / TSM 55.56%)

Volatility Rating: TL 0.26079 / TSM 0.25163 (League Avg: 0.2881)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

(alt) UNDER 24.5 @ -152 (miniscule)

UNDER 23.5 @ -123 (miniscule)

—-

Team Totals:

TSM team total OVER 9.5 kills @ -125 (strong)

 

Combined Kills / game 22.253 23.906
Combined Kills / min 0.680 0.722
Kills per win 16.010 16.760
Kills per loss 9.563 8.563
Deaths per win 5.92 7.33

(TL left, TSM right)

 

This total is just about right to me and like the model I’d lean under if I absolutely had to make a play. Given the flexibility we see with both of these teams in terms of how they like to play the game from a macro standpoint, I could see any number of different game states playing out here. No clear line of action.

 

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 33.016 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 32.63 / 32.67

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 52.78% (TL 44.44% / TSM 61.11%)

Volatility Rating: TL 0.14496 / TSM 0.14673 (League Avg: 0.1744)

TL TSM
Average Game Time 32.16 33.88
Avg Game Time (in wins) 30.63 33.44
Avg Game Time (in losses) 35.211 32.202

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none

 

I’d actually lean to the under in this situation given how cleanly Liquid close games out but it’s not really enough to convince me to back the under without a plus money price so I’ll pass.

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

TL first tower @ -145 (strong)*

TSM first tower (moderate-strong)*

TL first herald @ -145 (strong)**

TSM first herald (moderate-strong)**

TL first blood @ -156 (moderate)

UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -105 (moderate)

OVER 1.5 barons @ +144 (miniscule)

 

These two teams pair up well across the board in firsts besides at first blood. Given the more targeted preparation we get for series I could see some interesting level ones so I won’t be backing a TL first blood here although it’s the best suggestion on the board.

The model likes the under dragons but I actually like the over here if you can find a good price on it. If you get get close to even money -115 or better I like it but at -130 or more I’m just passing.

 

My Picks:

 

no wagers

Kind of anti-climactic but it is what it is. This market has been beat up for a week. The derivatives were fairly difficult with these two the entire time but the side you could have had your pick of either at different points throughout the week. Don’t force this if you don’t have to. Sometimes the best play is no play.

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

 

 

 

Leave a Reply