Friday, March 12th Recap

 

I’ll be updating the recaps that I don’t have notes on as I go this weekend. As you all know by now, my Thursday through Saturday schedule is absolutely bonkers and I don’t always get to comb over each of these with a fine-toothed comb right away.

 

FunPlus Phoenix vs ThunderTalk (TT) Gaming (Net: +8.175 units)

We cashed on the TT +1.5 maps here which was nice but we made our real hay on the props for this match which all connected except for one.

I don’t really hold it against teams that drop a game here or there to TT who have shown a consistently strong early pace in games even if it’s at the expense of their overall economy. They’re not dominant but they are a threatening early game team that can snowball a lead on people and that’s exactly what they did here.

I live bet TT for map 2 @ +333 because I thought their composition looked incredible. Three lanes that can hold priority and play off of it against a Kassadin. The play here is to use your advantage in the outer lanes to rotate to pick up an early herald, and just siege mid with it. Kassadin contributes next to nothing this early on and you can just take his mid tower relatively uncontested and break the map open to starve out their jungler and make picks. It’s the reason you don’t see him very much. I liked the Wukong swap to mid as well as Doinb admitted after the game to taking magic resist runes too. Still prio in top regardless of the matchup. This was over before it started but the LPL is different and Kassadins ALWAYS seem to find a few kills early and get way WAY ahead of schedule than they ever should be. That’s what happened here. Still think it was a great live bet, FPX just outplayed this pretty hard and capitalized on some early mistakes when it looked pretty clear that this game and series should have been over before game two even started. But hey, that’s why we play the games.

Not a great showing from FPX but they did manage to get it done while showing some neat stuff. Good showing from TT who put up a fight in game three despite a rough start as well. It’s a shame this team had so many thrown leads earlier this season they actually look like they could have challenged for a playoff spot.

LGD Gaming vs eStar (Net: -1.48 units)

Learn how to close a game out people… it’s really not that difficult. eStar just hard punted both of these games. Good on LGD to stabilize and scale in game one, game two was just a fiesta as most Nocturne mid games tend to be. Just an ugly series I don’t really have much else to say.

Liiv Sandbox vs KT Rolster (Net: +2.145 units)

Game one was a little sloppy but Sandbox were mostly in full control. Game two was a shellacking. At the risk of sounding a bit like I’m gloating, we’ve been saying all season long here at The Esports  Department that this Sandbox team is SIGNIFICANTLY better than their record and they’re finally showing it. Good on ya. Don’t look now, but Sandbox aren’t out of the playoff hunt yet and they face one of their challengers for the #6 seed in Afreeca in week ten.

KT are now in danger of missing the playoffs and it’s looking more and more like their week ten showdown with Nongshim is going to make or break them unless they can manage to pull an upset win over Hanwha, Gen.G, or DAMWON. If I had to guess, they don’t make it at this point although they should beat Nongshim.

Nongshim vs DRX (Net: +0.57 units)

Games one and two of this series were the team that got ahead eventually choking out their opponents and closing. Game three was a bit of a back and forth event but with Seraphine+double ADC and no reliable way to get to Ezreal, DRX struggled to get much done in the late game team fights. I expect we’ll be seeing a lot more Ezreal on this upcoming patch with the Muramana upgrades.

Nongshim kept their playoff hopes alive here. With KT AND Afreeca coming up on their schedule they’re sort of the ones in the driver’s seat for this playoff spot. Wins over both likely gets them the spot (miraculously…). A loss to either and they’re probably done.

DRX are somewhat dipping their toe in the water for some different looks but won’t commit to it. They’ve already clinched a playoff spot and have a two match lead over T1, I really think they should be using this time to try things unless they are behind the scenes and just aren’t showing it on stage. That would be the sickest long con ever but I digress… I still have the same concerns with this squad. You can’t rely on “don’t worry, we’re scaling” against good teams and the longer the season goes the weaker this strategy gets as teams learn how to poke holes in it. You need to show an evolution. How does your defense evolve to deal with new offenses? etc. This team is going to get smoked in best-of-five series.

 

Rogue vs SK Gaming (Net: +0.395 units)

Astralis vs Vitality (Net: no action)

Fnatic vs Schalke 04 (Net: +2.115 units)

Misfits vs MAD Lions (Net: no action)

Excel vs G2 (Net: +1.0 units)

 

Cloud 9 vs CLG (Net: +3.14 units)

Evil Geniuses vs TSM (Net: -1.56 units)

100 Thieves vs Immortals (Net: +2.0 units)

Team Liquid vs Dignitas (Net: -0.68 units)

Golden Guardians vs FlyQuest (Net: -1.19 units)

 

LPL Net Total: +6.695 units (7.695 – 1.0 live)

LCK Net Total: +2.715 units

LEC Net Total: +3.51 units

LCS Net Total: +1.71 units

Daily Net Total: +14.63 units

 

Current Week (March 8th-14th): +8.09 units (ROI: +5.1%)

 

 


LOL Pro League (China)

Week 8 – Day 6

 

BiliBili Gaming -714 (-1.5 maps @ -185)

vs

Rogue Warriors +445 (+1.5 maps @ +139, -1.5 @ +940)

 

 

Map ML Price: BLG -385 / RW +277

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +169 / under -222)

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -109 / under -120)

Kill Spread: -7.5 @ -120 / +7.5 @ -109

Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 7.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -130 / under +100)

 

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

RW +1.5 maps @ +139 (strong)

OVER 2.5 maps @ +169 (moderate)

RW series moneyline @ +445 (moderate)

RW map moneyline @ +277 (moderate)

 

With WE, Suning, and FunPlus remaining after this match for BLG, their chances of making playoffs are already looking slim but they’d be all but dead without a win here. Within striking distance are Suning at 7-5, Invictus at 6-6, LNG at 6-6, and technically Victory Five is still on their tails still. Winning this match and the Suning match are going to be critically important if they want any chance and they’re more than likely going to need to steal another match after that.

The model says there’s value on Rogue Warriors here and I can see why. Bilibili have actually been maybe the most underwhelming performance of the entire league to me but it’s primarily because of a lack of consistency. BiliBili spent way too much time “finding themselves” as I like to call it. They’re trying to be a chameleon team; one that adjusts based on what their opponents do instead of specializing in something and then branching out after mastering one concept. Because of this they’ve struggled to really find any kind of momentum this season. Losses to OMG and V5 as well as a game loss to eStar are a bad look for a team that many expected to be challenging for playoffs AT WORST and yet here we are.

Rogue Warriors are still unbelievably bad and I’m not going to really back them against anybody with how they’ve showed this season with and without Betty. They’ve had a challenging schedule of late (TOP, IG, EDG) but BiliBili should stomp this match. The hesitation comes at previous losses to weaker teams and more importantly at the price point we’re getting here.

This is a pass on the side. Rogue Warriors are the “value” but I’m not touching this team with a ten foot pole and BiliBili don’t deserve to be laying this much chalk. I’ll find other options here.

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 26.82

Time-Implied: 26.92

Underdog Win: 28.781

“Gelati” Total Projection: 26.998 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 54.31% (BLG 58.62% / RW 50%)

Volatility Rating: BLG 0.28179 / RW 0.38959 (League Avg: 0.3091)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

(alt) OVER 23.5 kills @ -130 (moderate-strong)

BLG team total UNDER 15.5 kills @ -120 (moderate)

RW team total UNDER 7.5 kills @ -115 (moderate-light)

OVER 24.5 kills @ -109 (light)

 

My instincts tell me that this is probably going to be a clinical 2-0 victory by BiliBili which makes me a tad skeptical about the over but this BiliBili team has really REALLY struggled to close games consistently and even the other day against TT when they looked much better, we caught a 33 kill game in game two. The hangup is that neither of these teams eclipse their team totals very often (again, the model weights frequency as part of the equation) and as you can tell from the volatility rating, Rogue Warriors are an extremely volatile team compared to most. BiliBili are averaging 26.0 combined kills per game against the other non-playoff  teams they’ve faced.

We need roughly the average combined kills per minute paces for these two over a ~28 minute game to get to 24, I think that’s very possible, especially given the fact that Rogue Warriors are probably still looking for a pride win and should be chippy here. I’ll take the over.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 31.434 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 31.94 / 32.28

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 45.5% (BLG 51.72% / RW 39.29%)

Volatility Rating: BLG 0.15714 / RW 0.14904 (League Avg: 0.16104)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

UNDER 31:00 @ +100 (moderate)

 

BLG RW
Average Game Time 32.44 30.43
Avg Game Time (in wins) 32.14 37.79
Avg Game Time (in losses) 32.677 29.551

 

The under does seem tempting here since more than 60% of RW games go under 31 minutes in length. If you think BLG steamroll then I think that’s a decent play.

It’s not by much but more games go under 31 minutes and over 4.5 dragons than over 31 minutes and under 4.5 dragons so in these instances, unless there is a drastic price difference I prefer the time total under. At +100 that’s a more efficient way  to play that game script.

 

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

RW first herald @ -109 (strong)

OVER 1.5 barons @ +216 (moderate-strong)

UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -111 (moderate)

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -222 (light)

 

I think it might get messy from a kill perspective but maybe not from a gameplay perspective. BLG have struggled to close but Rogue Warriors are also really REALLY bad so I’m not sure we can really pay too much attention to that over 1.5 baron which is just a play on the number.I normally like first herald but I have a feeling BiliBili are just going to steamroll this match so I’m going to pass on it here. I’m also going to be a bit more bullish on the under 12.5 towers play.

 

My Picks:

 

(map 3 is juiced to high hell and bumped up on the time total and kill total so no go, doubt it even gets there)

Kill Total (alt): Map 1 OVER 23.5 kills @ -130 (1.3 units)

Kill Total (alt): Map 2 OVER 23.5 kills @ -133 (1.33 units)

Time Total: Map 1 UNDER 31:00 @ +100 (1 unit)

Time Total: Map 2 UNDER 31:00 @ +100 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -222 (2.22 units)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -222 (2.22 units)

Prop: Map 3 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -204 (2.04 units)

 


RareAtom -118 (-1.5 maps @ +265, +1.5 @ -333)

vs

Invictus Gaming -109 (+1.5 maps @ -370, -1.5 @ +246)

 

 

Map ML Price: RA -116 / IG -111

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over -105 / under -120)

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -112 / under -116)

Kill Spread: +3.5 @ -119 / -3.5 @ -110

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 12.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over +131 / under -172)

 

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

RareAtom series moneyline @ -118 (very light)

RareAtom -1.5 maps @ +265 (very light)

RareAtom map moneyline @ -116 (miniscule)

 

What a world… As many of you know, I’ve been a huge RareAtom bull ever since Summer split where the players and overall team metrics were significantly better than their record. Well, it’s happening again but this time they have the results to show for it. The model makes this very, very close to market (-143 / +111) and I’m mostly in line with it but I’m passing on the side here for a couple of reasons.

First, and foremost, the way RareAtom plays, very lane dominant and they’re very good at it as evidenced by their individual player model ratings. The thing is, Invictus are too. If every game could be played that way, Invictus would be one of the best teams in the world, their problem lies in everything else and putting it together. So I’m a little more hesitant to back just strictly based on numbers because this is the kind of game Invictus wants to play and RareAtom will likely play right into it instead of doing what most teams do and just attack the side lanes.

Second, this is a good price… just straight up there’s not really much value on either side to me and even if you go strictly by numbers.

Third, Invictus need this win more than RareAtom does.  At 9-3, RareAtom are all but locked into a playoff spot and are just battling for seeding while Invictus are in must-win territory. They’ll be hungrier.

This should be an awesome match to watch with two very similarly styled teams going at it. I’ll look to other markets on it.

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 27.824

Time-Implied: 27.292

Underdog Win: 30.36

“Gelati” Total Projection: 27.477 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 51.85% (RA 51.85% / IG 51.85%)

Volatility Rating: RA 0.3372 / IG 0.32122 (League Avg: 0.3091)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

Invictus team total OVER 12.5 kills @ -115 (strong)

RA team total OVER 12.5 kills @ -109 (strong)

(alt) OVER 27.5 kills @ +127 (moderate-light)

 

Obviously with the frequency weight it makes sense that the model suggests overs on these team totals. I actually think that could be a goofy way to play this although at that point just take the game total over. With possible split push shenanigans likely here I’m just going to avoid the totals altogether but lean over.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time:  31.57 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 31.64 / 31.62

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 37.04% (RA 55.56% / IG 18.52%)

Volatility Rating: RA 0.15334 / IG 0.14625 (League Avg: 0.16104)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none

 

RA IG
Average Game Time 33.47 29.67
Avg Game Time (in wins) 33.17 29.76
Avg Game Time (in losses) 34.065 29.557

 

This is heavily based on who you think wins. RA tend to be slower winners AND losers but IG are fast winners AND losers. I’d lean over but I’m just going to pass.

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

Invictus first dragon @ -116 (strong)*

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -312 (strong)

RA first blood @ -119 (moderate)*

Invictus first blood @ -110 (moderate-light)*

RA first dragon @ -116 (very light)*

OVER 1.5 barons @ +132 (miniscule)

 

A few of these cancel each other out with both teams showing strength. Invictus are at over 70% first dragon rate but RA are no slouches at 55%. Still I like the IG first drake.

The tower prop under is interesting. Invictus tend to win ridiculously fast when they do get advantages while RA it tends to be more of a grindfest. Still, combined these teams average just 9% of games going over this 12.5 total so I do think a half stake play is worth it here despite how closely matched this series is. I could see Invictus running over a game or two to get it there or RA steamroll one, IG steamroll one, and then one slugfest. I’ll pass although I’m probably going to regret that.

 

My Picks:

 

Prop: Map 1 IG first dragon @ -116 (1.16 units)

Prop: Map 2 IG first dragon @ -122 (1.22 units)

Prop: Map 3 IG first dragon @ -115 (1.15 units)

 

 


  

EDward Gaming -114 (-1.5 maps @ +246, +1.5 @ -357)

vs

TOP Esports -115 (+1.5 maps @ -333, -1.5 @ +262)

(wonky I know, but lots of movement)

 

Map ML Price: EDG -115 / TOP -111

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over -105 / under -122)

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -118 / under -111)

Kill Spread: +0.5 @ -112 / -0.5 @ -116

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 12.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -120 / under -108)

 

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

TOP series moneyline @ -115 (moderate-strong)

TOP -1.5 maps @ +262 (moderate)

TOP map moneyline @ -111 (moderate)

 

Full Disclosure: I bet this at +128 when the lines opened earlier this week but I’ll be using these numbers for the purposes of record keeping. As you’ll read I still love this position quite a bit.

So I teased this on The Gold Card Podcast and in The Esports Department free Discord server but I’m all over TOP Esports here for a litany of reasons.

First, they grade out as the best team in the LPL and have been for a little while now in my economy/objective model.

Second, other than dragon control there is no measurable at which EDG performs better. That somewhat makes sense given that they’re a dragon control team and those tend to have slightly less gawdy metrics particularly in the early game. Still, the gap is pretty wide to it’s notable.

TOP Tale of the Tape EDG
2039.9 Gold Diff @ 10 min 641.0
1722.7 Gold Diff @ 15 min 227.2
318.5 Gold Diff @ 20 min 392.1
146.1 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 34.9
183.4 Gold Diff / min first 20 63.1
606.5 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 454.2
1937.6 Gold /min 1865.4
132.2 Gold / min vs Avg 59.9
242.0 Gold Diff / min 162.4
3.3 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 2.3
1681.4 Kill Agnostic GPM 1669.1
138.9 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 104.8
55.4 Dragon Control % 60.2
66.0 Herald Control % 49.0
66.7 Baron Control % 57.6
13.0 Quality Wins? 7.0
76.5 % of wins as Quality 36.8

 

Third, I’ve talked about it a lot but teams that can snowball early leads and close stand the test of time better than teams that rely on scaling and opponent error. Now, EDG aren’t exactly DRX by any means. They’re more than capable of being the proactive team on the map but stylistically I much prefer the way TOP play. More on this in a minute.

Fourth, in the differential statistics specifically, TOP are better across the board individually. My individual player model factors in a handful of other aspects but specifically laning metrics TOP are quite a bit better.

Fifth, the schedule. TOP have had a few more days to prepare for this match as they played on Tuesday while EDG played yesterday against LNG.

Sixth, intuition. I think TOP are probably the best team in the LPL we’ve just seen fewer matches from them and I think people forget that amidst the newly good teams like RNG and EDG. These teams are all outstanding but TOP have the record AND numbers to show for it more than most.

The only thing that concerns me is JackeyLove doing cocky JackeyLove things and that’s quite literally the only thing I don’t like about what TOP are doing this season. I’d expect him to be in serious mode for this match though. EDG are a very intelligent team but I think TOP have the better horses pound for pound by a decent margin here and they’re a pretty intelligent team themselves (although I’d say not quite as much).

The model makes this a -192 / +144 series (includes vig added back in) with TOP as the favorites. I’m slightly less bullish than that. I’d still play this at the current number and I’d play it up to around the -160 range for TOP. I usually hate saying it because it doesn’t really have an effect on how you should handicap a game but it feels wrong getting TOP at anything close to even money and I doubt we’ll see that much, if at all, over the rest of the 2021 season.

 

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 27.144

Time-Implied: 26.392

Underdog Win: 28.142

“Gelati” Total Projection: 26.574 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 47.08% (EDG 40% / TOP 54.17%)

Volatility Rating: EDG 0.25664 / TOP 0.32223 (League Avg: 0.3091)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

TOP team total OVER 12.5 kills @ -119 (very strong)**

EDG team total OVER 12.5 kills @ -105 (moderate)**

(alt) UNDER 26.5 @ -125 (moderate)

UNDER 25.5 @ -111 (light)

(alt) UNDER 24.5 @ +107 (very light)

 

Obviously the frequency ratings are suggesting the team total overs. If you like one side or the other just take the moneyline or if you like both then take the game total over. I’m passing on all of these. I’d lean under but this could end up being a slugfest.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time:  31.104 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 31.74 / 31.74

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 42.42% (EDG 64% / TOP 20.83%)

Volatility Rating: EDG 0.13744 / TOP 0.16500 (League Avg: 0.16104)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none

 

EDG TOP
Average Game Time 32.85 29.35
Avg Game Time (in wins) 32.76 30.35
Avg Game Time (in losses) 33.136 30.719

 

If you like TOP to win this then the under is probably a decent play but if you think we get a competitive series, which I think is rather likely then this is a pass.

Note: I think the plus money under 4.5 dragons is a better way to play the time total under if you like that market.

 

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

all of the firsts are mirrored so I’m just passing on those

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -143 (VERY VERY strong)

UNDER 11.5 towers @ +120 (strong)

UNDER 1.5 barons @ -175 (strong)

UNDER 4.5 dragons @ +117 (moderate)

 

The unders make a lot of sense given how strong these teams are at closing, particularly TOP Esports with their closing speed. I’ve got a little more respect for EDG than to think this is going to be that lopsided but you NEVER see under 12.5 towers priced this cheap so I’m just going to close my eyes and take it. You frequently see this go under even in slightly longer games that are back and forth if there’s just one ace to push to win.

Note: I think the plus money under 4.5 dragons is a better way to play the time total under if you like that market.

 

 

My Picks:

 

Moneyline: TOP Esports -115 (1.725 units)

Map Spread: TOP -1.5 maps @ +262 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -143 (1.43 units)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -143 (1.43 units)

Prop: Map 3 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -143 (1.43 units)

 


LOL Champions Korea (LCK)

Week 8 – Day 3

 

 

Gen.G -227 (-1.5 maps @ +155, +1.5 @ -714)

vs

T1 +172 (+1.5 maps @ -200, -1.5 @ +441)

 

 

Map ML Price: GEG -182 / T1 +140

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over -110 / under -115)

Kill Total: 22.5 (over -110 / under -119)

Kill Spread: -4.5 @ -122 / +4.5 @ -106

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 8.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -116 / under -112)

 

 

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none

 

The model makes this right about on market with no real value on either side but I think this is more dependent on which T1 lineup we get. I listed a couple just so people have the player positional ranks. Basically, if we get the veteran version of T1 I think I’m going to like them at this number, if we get “T1 Junior” or the Clozer and Gumayusi youngsters lineup then I’ll like Gen.G.

I think people are too afraid to back Gen.G just based on that weird Sandbox loss last week which doesn’t look nearly as bad in hindsight now does it? They’re still a ridiculously dominant team and grade right next to DAMWON in my objective/economy model. They absolutely dumpstered Hanwha Life but you don’t see anybody talking about that.

 

I really hope we see the Faker version of T1 here it would make this a lot more competitive in my opinion but my position here will largely depend on the lineup as it usually does with T1.

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 23.67

Time-Implied: 23.347

Underdog Win: 23.406

“Gelati” Total Projection: 23.573 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 50.71% (GEG 50% / T1 51.43%)

Volatility Rating: GEG 0.29668 / T1 0.31981 (League Avg: 0.3154)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

T1 team total OVER 8.5 kills @ -120 (strong)

 

Doesn’t 8.5 seem really REALLY low? It’s a bit of a leap of faith but if T1 take a game and then make another competitive this seems like it just gets there, especially if we see the Clozer version. I might just take the game total over with the Clozer lineup instead but this looked odd.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 32.631 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 32.67 / 32.67

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 46.3% (GEG 41.18% / T1 51.43%)

Volatility Rating: GEG 0.15893 / T1 0.15163 (League Avg: 0.15464)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

UNDER 33:00 @ -112 (very light)

 

This under feels pretty good to me. These two teams are both pretty good at closing with a lead it’s just a matter of getting that lead. If you think this is more of a slugfest then the over or pass is where you want to be. I’ll be on the under as I think Gen.G probably handle business here.

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

the firsts all cancel each other out as these two teams strengths line up fairly well

UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -120 (light)

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -130 (light)

 

Slim pickings here with how good both of these teams are in the firsts. Pass.

 

My Picks:

 

REGARDLESS OF WHO PLAYS:

Time Total: Map 1 UNDER 33:00 @ -112 (1.12 units)

Time Total: Map 2 UNDER 33:00 @ -112 (1.12 units)

Time Total: Map 3 UNDER 33:00 @ -112 (1.12 units)

 

IF CLOZER PLAYS:

Moneyline: Gen.G -227 (2.27 units)

Map Spread: Gen.G -1.5 maps @ +155 (0.5 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 22.5 @ -115 (1.15 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 22.5 @ -115 (1.15 units)

Kill Total: Map 3 OVER 22.5 @ -115 (1.15 units)

 

IF FAKER PLAYS:

Moneyline: T1 +172 (1 unit)

Map Spread: T1 -1.5 maps @ +441 (0.5 units)

 

 


 

Fredit Brion +164 (+1.5 maps @ -189, -1.5 @ +393)

vs

Afreeca Freecs -213 (-1.5 maps @ +147, +1.5 @ -588)

 

 

Map ML Price: BRO +137 / AF -175

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +109 / under -139)

Kill Total: 22.5 (over -114 / under -114)

Kill Spread: +5.5 @ -118 / -5.5 @ -111

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 12.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -111 / under -118)

 

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

Afreeca series moneyline @ -213 (light)

Afreeca map moneyline @ -175 (miniscule)

 

Afreeca just have a knack for finding ways to lose games they should win just like Sandbox and Vitality and some other teams in the world. That said, I think tales of their demise might be a little overstated. Sure, they’re going to need to do some heavy lifting to get into playoffs at this point BUT keep in mind that they’ve played Hanwha, Gen.G, and DAMWON as their past three opponents. It gets much easier from here.

I know they’ve been burning us all season but you’ve got to trust your process with these things. Bang and Lehends played a TERRIBLE series against Hanwha and that’s all it was. Given how consistent those two have been in their careers I wouldn’t bet on that happening again.

Brion showed a good fight against DAMWON which I think has a lot of people excited to back them here but I’m simply not buying it. This team sucks. I think Afreeca rally with their backs against the wall and smash here.

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 25.167

Time-Implied: 25.148

Underdog Win: 28.349

“Gelati” Total Projection: 25.106 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 61% (AF 61.29% / BRO 60.71%)

Volatility Rating: AF 0.30116 / BRO 0.29358 (League Avg: 0.3154)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OVER 22.5 kills @ -114 (moderate)

Afreeca team total UNDER 12.5 @ -108 (moderate)

Brion team total OVER 9.5 @ -105 (moderate)

(alt) OVER 21.5 kills @ -137 (moderate-light)

(alt) OVER 23.5 kills @ +103 (very light)

 

I do like the over quite a bit in this series as the projections are significantly higher and it’s agnostic of wins and losses for either. The frequencies are also much higher than market. Love the over here.

 

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 33.757 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 33.86 / 33.82

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 52.25% (AF 58.06% / BRO 46.43%)

Volatility Rating: AF 0.16079 / BRO 0.16969 (League Avg: 0.15464)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none

 

If you trust Afreeca to actually use their advantages which they’ve shown sometimes and failed to show other times, then this under is a slam dunk to me. Otherwise just pass. I actually think Afreeca are going to absolutely roll here. Maybe I’m delusional but I’m trusting them to close like they did against KT the second time around and the first game in this series.

 

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

AF first blood @ -130 (VERY strong)*

BRO first dragon @ -104 (moderate)*

OVER 1.5 barons @ +143 (light)

AF first herald @ -192 (very light)

AF first dragon @ -130 (very light)*

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -189 (very light)

BRO first blood @ +100 (very light)*

 

As good as Afreeca are at getting first blood, I rarely play this prop unless the opponent is also particularly bad.

I’m already on time total unders here so I think the under 12.5 towers makes sense in that game script but I don’t want to double dip on a team I’m already “trusting” to take care of business. I’ll stick to the time total. The rest of this doesn’t really interest me as Afreeca are a great “firsts” team.

 

 

My Picks:

 

Moneyline: Afreeca -213 (2.13 units)

Map Spread: Afreeca -1.5 maps @ +147 (0.5 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 22.5 kills @ -114 (1.14 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 22.5 kills @ -111 (1.11 units)

Kill Total: Map 3 OVER 22.5 kills @ -133 (1.33 units)

Time Total: Map 1 UNDER 33:00 @ -118 (1.18 units)

Time Total: Map 2 UNDER 33:00 @ -118 (1.18 units)

Time Total: Map 3 UNDER 33:00 @ -112 (1.12 units)

 

 


LOL European Championship (LEC)

Week 8 – Day 2

 

I’ll be adding these later on tonight (Friday) or early Saturday morning

 

Astralis +171 vs SK Gaming -222

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -110 / under -119)

Kill Spread: +6.5 @ -112 / -6.5 @ -116

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 14.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -125 / under -104)

 

Astralis continue to improve and while I don’t think this a particularly good team they’re still trying and can be a feisty underdog especially at the prices we can get them at. I want to call SK Gaming a solid gatekeeper to the playoffs type of team but with just how poor their early game is I’m not sure they deserve that title. SK consistently managed to find windows back into games off the back of Treatz but as I’ve mentioned a handful of times this isn’t a reliable strategy and over the long term they won’t be able to maintain their win rate with the production they’ve showed us so far this season.

The last time these two played was back on day one of the season and despite the final 14-3 kill score, it was essentially an even game for the first 30 minutes.

I’m not buying SK Gaming at all. They’re the better team here but they certainly don’t deserve to be laying this kind of price against an Astralis team that I think we can safely call at least competent unlike the last place teams in certain other Western leagues.

SK certainly have the motivational advantage here. With a win they’d essentially lock in a playoff position but they could lose today and tomorrow and be eliminated with Schalke and Misfits wins. They have the tall task of facing G2 tomorrow as well so this is their season on the line in some ways. I think this kind of angle is dangerous. Astralis have looked much better even in losses once they loosened up and had nothing to lose after elimination. From interviews we’ve seen they seem much more relaxed and are still just grinding for stage experience. A team with nothing to lose is DANGEROUS.

I like Astralis here. I think SK are going to crack under the pressure and the fact that they consistently fail in the early game concerns me with them as big favorites like this. You’ll notice this one a lot today but we’re getting some very cheap prices on tower number props today so I’ll be on those in a few spots. This number typically goes up as the season progresses and teams become more competitive. The books haven’t adjusted today. We also just had four underdogs win in sloppy ones yesterday as pressure mounts on favorites and underdogs improve.

My Picks:

Moneyline: Astralis +171 (1 unit)

Prop: Astralis first tower @ +120 (1 unit)

Prop: OVER 11.5 towers @ -164 (1.64 units)

Prop: OVER 12.5 towers @ +189 (0.5 units)

 


Team Vitality +126 vs Schalke 04  -161

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -105 / under -123)

Kill Spread: +4.5 @ -110 / -4.5 @ -119

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 13.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -154 / under +118)

 

With their loss yesterday, Vitality are now eliminated from playoff contention. Schalke need at least one of these new two games and probably need both to fight off Misfits, SK, and Excel for their spot. When things went south early against Fnatic yesterday it was looking like Schalke’s season might be done but they had faith in the Seraphine scaling and managed to claw the game back from the jaws of defeat by overcoming a mountain soul’d Fnatic squad albeit with some mistakes to help out.

I don’t give too much weight to motivational angles in general but Schalke are the better team despite all their trials and tribulations this season. They’ve dealt with the pressure and are comfortable in it as we saw last season and after some tough spots in the past few weeks here this season. Schalke have to be feeling a lot more confident after that win yesterday.

My model actually likes a light play on Vitality here primarily due to trending performance breaking an otherwise sharp number but I’m going against it and backing Schalke. I’m also taking the over 11.5 towers prop. Between both of these teams only seven games have gone under this total and I don’t expect a shellacking either way here especially with so much on the line.

 

My Picks:

Moneyline: Schalke 04 -161 (1.61 units)

Kill Total: UNDER 24.5 @ -123 (1.23 units)

Prop: OVER 11.5 towers @ -204 (2.04 units)

Prop: OVER 12.5 towers @ -111 (0.555 units)

 


Rogue -435 vs Excel Esports +308

 

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -112 / under -116)

Kill Spread: -8.5 @ -125 / +8.5 @ -104

Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 7.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -116 / under -112)

Excel had their best game of the split yesterday properly punishing a bit of a weird draft from G2 but I need to give this some context. While it was their best game, it’s a lot easier when the enemy team makes it easier so I don’t want to jump to too many wild conclusions about Excel suddenly figuring it out or turning things around. That said, the confidence a win like that gives you can certainly help out.

Rogue struggled a little with SK Gaming yesterday after a bit of a throw on one of SK’s miracle engages they seem to always find but otherwise were in full control of that game despite costing us our time total under.

Rogue should stomp this match. They also have some added motivation they otherwise wouldn’t have had now with G2 dropping a map, they could take over first place for side selection throughout playoffs. This is yet another weak vs strong early game situation and one where I’d lean toward the under but 31 is somewhat of a key number in these situations in the LEC this season so I’ll pass there and instead opt for other angles to attack that same concept. Excel have picked up first tower just once this entire split while Rogue hold an 81% first tower rate and that’s typically a market I like to attack in these types of matchups anyway sometimes in lieu of the moneyline.

 

My Picks:

Prop: Rogue first tower @ -278 (2.78 units)

Prop: UNDER 12.5 towers @ -185 (1.85 units)

Prop: Rogue first to 5 kills @ -227 (2.27 units)

 


Misfits +149 vs Fnatic -192

 

Kill Total: 28.5 (over -119 / under -110)

Kill Spread: +6.5 @ -109 / -6.5 @ -120

Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 16.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over +170 / under -227)

 

This is two very volatile teams. Admittedly, Misfits haven’t been quite the same level of volatility that they were earlier in the season but this is still two very explosive squads. Fnatic are obviously coming off of a bit of a weird loss to Schalke yesterday where they had a soul but managed to  botch it. Seraphine scaling didn’t help on the other side. Misfits continued their surge up the standings with a slugfest win over MAD Lions in a game that looked all but over in the first fifteen minutes. Misfits have not been a good team at playing from behind so seeing that yesterday really impressed me quite a bit although I do think MAD definitely screwed things up let’s not kid ourselves.

Both of these teams are slightly overrated to me but this opened in the -240 range and we’re now getting a pretty nice price on Fnatic. I don’t really like laying chalk with this team as a favorite very often because of how volatile they are but this is a cheap, cheap price so I’m going to take Fnatic on the moneyline here.

The kill total is sort ridiculous but both of these teams have been dead nut over teams this season and most of the time it’s gone well beyond this number. If you think we get any kind of competitive game whatsoever it will likely be an over but this is just a little too rich for where I have this projected so I’ll pass. If you believe in that game script I think the Misfits team total is probably a better way to go. The time total here is also priced in a way that suggests a fast win on either side which, for the most part, has been the case with these two teams. However, with both of them opting into more scaling compositions and both showing a knack for sometimes throwing leads I think the over is worth a play given the huge plus money price tag we’re getting here. This is a high pressure match for Misfits in particular and I think there’s a chance we see some mistakes on both sides to extend this.

My Picks:

Moneyline: Fnatic -192 (1.92 units)

Time Total: OVER 33:00 @ +170 (1 unit)

Prop: OVER 11.5 towers @ -149 (1.49 units)

 


G2 Esports -294 vs MAD Lions +219

 

Kill Total: 29.5 (over -109 / under -120)

Kill Spread: -8.5 @ -119 / +8.5 @ -109

Team Kill Totals: 19.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -110 / under -119)

Wow what an overreaction… This was more than a 5% implied probability move from the opener just based on yesterday’s results.

I’ve discussed the things I like and dislike about MAD Lions quite a bit here. The short version is that they’re very talented and capable of blowing games open but that comes at a cost for them specifically in that they’re an extremely high risk team. The MAD bottom lane in particular must be gambling men because they seem to roll the dice with aggression every single game regardless of whether or not it’s correct given the matchup and map situation. Against a lot of teams they get away with murder and sometimes they look completely stupid like we’ve seen a number of times this split. Carzzy and Kaiser have been “better” looking in recent weeks but are still making a lot of the same mistakes and just aren’t being punished for it. G2 will punish them.

I think G2 learned their lesson with that weird draft yesterday and will probably play this one closer to the vest with first place in jeopardy. It seems a little crazy for a best-of-one but my model makes this a very strong value on G2 and I happen to agree with it. MAD are capable of being a punch up underdog but I’d bet, and will be, on G2 punishing their greedy play.

Between these two teams just 7 out of 32 have gone under 11.5 towers. At the ridiculously cheap price we’re getting I love that, especially because G2 tend to trade. If we get a G2 blowout then so be it.

My Picks:

Moneyline: G2 -294 (2.94 units)

Prop: OVER 11.5 towers @ -137 (2.74 units)

 

Parlays:

I’ll be round robin’ing all three of my favorite plays on this card:

Rogue first tower, Schalke/Vitality OVER 11.5 towers, and G2/MAD OVER 11.5 towers

Parlay (2): Rogue 1st T+ S04/VIT OVER 11.5 towers @ +103 (1 unit)

Parlay (2): Rogue 1st T + G2/MAD OVER 11.5 towers @ +135 (1 unit)

Parlay (2): G2/MAD OVER 11.5 tower + Schalke/Vitality OVER 11.5 towers @ +158 (1 unit)

Parlay (3):Rogue 1st T + G2/MAD OVER 11.5 towers + Schalke/Vitality OVER 11.5 towers @ +251 (1 unit)

 


LOL Championship Series (LCS)

Week 6 – Day 2

 

 

Team Solo Mid (TSM) -270  vs Immortals +210

 

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -111 / under -118)

Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -127 / +6.5 @ -103

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 8.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -108 / under -120)

The gold graph made this game look closer than it was for Immortals against 100 Thieves yesterday as the Thieves were in full control for most of the game taking almost every objective and stacking a dragon soul. Immortals managed to snag elder and make this a bit of a contest but the gold lead was insurmountable at that point. TSM dropped to Evil Geniuses in an absolute pop off game for Impact’s Aatrox against Huni’s Sion.

TSM are a much stronger team in general and my model makes them even larger favorites than this but not by much which essentially makes this a no value situation. I’ll look to play TSM through other markets like first tower and under tower totals.

 

My Picks:

Prop: TSM first tower @ -164 (1.64 units)

Prop: UNDER 12.5 towers @ -137 (1.37 units)

 


Cloud 9 -312 vs Dignitas +229

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -123 / under -105)

Kill Spread: -8.5 @ -109 / +8.5 @ -120

Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 8.5

Time Total: 30:00 (over -133 / under +102) or 31:00 (over -122 / under -106)

I took Dignitas against a better team in Liquid yesterday and I’ll be backing them again here today. This handicap is fairly simple for the side. However, it’s the other markets that are more interesting to me. 30 minutes is an extremely short time and while Cloud 9 have been speed running people in most of their wins. Seven of C9’s sixteen games have gone under the 30 minute mark. Dignitas have had some strong early games and are fairly versatile in terms of how they deploy their drafts, whether it’s for dragons or heralds. If you can match C9’s early game they’re not nearly as potent.

I actually like the overs here even though the trends and math don’t really support it. I have a feeling this is going to be a competitive matchup. I’ll go against the numbers and take the over on this one in both game time and kill total.

 

My Picks:

Kill Spread: Dignitas +8.5 kills @ -120 (1.2 units)

Moneyline: Dignitas +229 (0.5 units)

Time Total: OVER 30:00 @ -130 (1.3 units)

Kill Total: OVER 25.5 kills @ -123 (1.23 units)

 


100 Thieves -244 vs FlyQuest +184

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -125 / under -104)

Kill Spread: -7.5 @ -108 / +7.5 @ -122

Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -133 / under +102) or 33:00 (over -119 / under -109)

FlyQuest look a lot better with Dreams in the lineup but it’s also one game and against Golden Guardians and they honestly could have lost that game so I’m not really going to put any weight on it. Look at this gold graph… yea…

(from GOL.GG)

100 Thieves picked up a clean win against Immortals that was much more convincing but again, their previous opponents were also Golden Guardians.

100 Thieves are certainly the better team here. FlyQuest haven’t impressed me at all this season but I definitely don’t trust any of the non-elite tier LCS teams as big favorites like this. I’m optimistic enough that Dreams could help FlyQuest quite a bit even if it didn’t exactly look great in the first game and I’d expect them to at least be competitive here.

This is just a play on the number. It feels gross but I just don’t think 100 Thieves are consistent enough to warrant this number even if they have been mostly solid against the bottom of the table.  They’ve also been terrible against the spread evne with only moderate sized kill spreads. If you like 100 Thieves I’d look to the first herald/tower markets.

My Picks:

Kill Spread: FlyQuest +7.5 kills @ -122 (1.22 units)

Moneyline: FlyQuest +184 (0.5 units)

 


Evil Geniuses +174 vs Team Liquid -227

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -112 / under -116)

Kill Spread: +6.5 @ -122 / -6.5 @ -108

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 14.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -106 / under -122)

I like Evil Geniuses in spots like this but Liquid just seem to fundamentally sound to really back anybody with any kind of inconsistency whatsoever against them so I’m just going to pass on the side in this contest but lean Liquid. The rough part here is the correlations here with the other plays. Liquid win it’s likely an under, EG win it’s likely an over. 25.5 is a really high total for any Liquid game regardless of opponent and I’m inclined to look at that as a play here especially since I think they do win this more often than not.

My Picks:

Kill Total: UNDER 25.5 @ -116 (1.16 units)

 


Golden Guardians +217 vs Counter Logic Gaming (CLG) -294

 

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -123 / under -105)

Kill Spread: +6.5 @ -119 / -6.5 @ -110

Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 14.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -135 / under +104)

The fade Golden Guardians train continues to roll although FlyQuest really screwed us landing on 13 for our 13.5 kill over yesterday as a famouns group once said “the hook brings us back” except not… anyway I’m clearly not a comedian.

It feels so stupid but I do think CLG are the play here. Golden Guardians are making slow progress but they’re still not there yet and CLG have looked better and better with each passing game. I also like the game time under at plus money. CLG’s early games have been solid even when they were losing and Golden Guardians have been a fairly easy team to run over in most of their games. CLG kill spread and under. Alternatively you could just take the moneyline.

 

My Picks:

Kill Spread: CLG -6.5 kills @ -110 (1.1 units)

Time Total: UNDER 32:00 @ +104 (1 unit)

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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