Friday, June 4th Recap
Team Liquid vs Team Solo Mid (Net: +1.48 units)
TSM opened the season with Viego who has been disabled for months and it frankly wouldn’t surprise me to see him go on the disabled list again with all of the bugs still rampant in his kit but that’s besides the point. This was a VERY aggressive composition from TSM. A much different look for them and I have to hand it to them, they really took it to TL in this game. I didn’t have a problem with Liquid’s draft either. Karma and Ezreal are extremely difficult for a champion like Rumble to deal with as Karma can essentially blank Rumble’s ultimate and Ezreal is difficult to pin down for consistent damage on him.
Other than a weird commitment to finishing the tower by Tactical (never forget minion debuff folks), this was still a fairly close game. Lot of close fights but TSM got the best of them.
Golden Guardians vs Cloud 9 (Net: +3.59 units)
I don’t usually pull “I told you so’s” but this was just about as good a spot as any to buy a lottery ticket on the huge underdogs. Cloud 9 coming off of a disrupted offseason due to traveling to MSI, AND with a new player, AND with Golden Guardians upgrading, AND first game of the season being the most prepared that underdogs will ever be over the rest of the year. It was just a perfect storm. I wouldn’t look too far into this. It was a good bet and that’s all. Ablazeolive had an absolutely monster Zoe game.
Evil Geniuses vs Dignitas (Net: no action)
What a clown fiesta… I really just don’t have a lot to say on this one it was just a terrible throw by Evil Geniuses who should have won this with the lead that they snowballed but a few mistakes allowed Dignitas’ strong scaling to kick in. It wasn’t like a massive scaling advantage or anything like that but this game got to the point where everyone was at or near full build and it can be anybody’s game from there. EG made a lot of mistakes in this one to punt this but that’s fairly on brand for them if I’m being honest. Dignitas played well from a deficit.
100 Thieves vs Immortals (Net: -1.43 units)
I’m far from perfect. I try to think things through and be thorough and make logical decisions but I wanted to clip something incredibly stupid from my writeup on this yesterday. At one point I said “…so I won’t be playing this one.” because I upgraded both of these teams and thought the price was a tad steep despite the model liking it. Not two sentence later “Half Stake.” Just didn’t listen to my own advice. Again don’t look too far into this one it’s week one and expect 100 Thieves to have a least some hiccups while building chemistry. For what it’s worth I didn’t like the draft that much here either.
CLG vs FlyQuest (Net: -2.38 units)
FlyQuest picked up Gwen, Viego, Sylas, Ezreal, Sett vs CLG’s Gangplank, Karthus, Lee (mid), Kaisa, Leona. Significantly easier to execute composition for CLG but very VERY powerful champions on this patch for FlyQuest. FlyQuest got the snowball rolling early in this one and had no answer to Gwen in the side lane which ended up requiring them to force a lot of awkward fights.
Daily Net Total: +1.26 units
Sucks to end up with such a small profit after hitting on Golden Guardians but it was of my own mistakes. Live and learn. Onto the next one.
I got ahead of their curve and hit a few of these openers already but I’ll be just covering Friday’s games here in this post. If you would like to view positions from Saturday and Sunday, wagers for the full weekend of games so far can be found via the Spreadsheet linked here and at the bottom of every single post.
LCS Summer 2021
Week One – Day Two
Team Solo Mid -263 vs Evil Geniuses +193
Kill Total: 26.5 (over -122 / under -105)
Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -125 / +5.5 @ -103
Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 10.5
Time Total: 33:00 (over -101 / under -128)
Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -131 / +101
Suggested Play: Evil Geniuses (strong)
I’m not quite as bullish on this position as the model is but I generally agree that this is simply way too heavy handed a line. This was -175 / +130 when we recorded the podcast this week and based on yesterday it’s suddenly up to this? Get out of here. This is a classic overreaction spot.
I already had a position on EG at +128 from earlier in the week (it was posted in the spreadsheet). I’ll be hitting this one again with an add on.
Moneyline: Evil Geniuses +128 (1 unit)(from 5/31)
Moneyline: Evil Geniuses +193 (1 unit)(add on)
Dignitas -147 vs FlyQuest +116
Kill Total: 27.5 (over -108 / under -122)
Kill Spread: -3.5 @ -115 / +3.5 @ -112
Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 12.5
Time Total: 32:00 (over -120 / under -108)
Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -133 / +103
Suggested Play: none
FlyQuest picked up Gwen and Viego yesterday and got the snowball they were looking for. I’m not entirely sure they’ll be getting either or both of those champions again anytime soon on this patch but I could be wrong. It looks like maybe some teams don’t think they’re quite as strong as others so there’s a chance that they keep getting them for awhile but I’d bet against it, especially if they’re picking up wins.
This is still roughly where the opener was (-159 / +119) with a compression for time decay that we typically see as the week progresses. We’re seeing a short value on FlyQuest in this spot but it’s not enough to trigger a play and I don’t think anything I’ve seen warrants an adjustment in either direction on this one. Pass.
Cloud 9 -167 vs 100 Thieves +131
Kill Total: 25.5 (over -120 / under -108)
Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -112 / +5.5 @ -115
Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 10.5
Time Total: 32:00 (over +101 / under -132)
Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -149 / +117
Suggested Play: none
Those that were paying attention in The Esports Department (free) Discord saw that I posted a few plays for this weekend earlier this week on my spreadsheet and this was one of them (at +176). As of Wednesday when we recorded the podcast, this was a -263 / +189 line. 100 Thieves were a huge value at that price.
This is yet another sever overreaction that has me wanting to just take the free middle albeit for a measly 9 point profit but I’m simply going to let this one ride. I will be posting a lot more look ahead spots and when time permits hosting a show for lookaheads this season on Sunday’s.
Moneyline: 100 Thieves +176 (2 units) (from 5/31)
(do not bet this at current number)
Counter Logic Gaming +222 vs Team Liquid -303
Kill Total: 24.5 (over -109 / under -119)
Kill Spread: +6.5 @ -118 / -6.5 @ -110
Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 14.5
Time Total: 32:00 (over -116 / under -112)
Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: +241 / -333
Suggested Play: None
This is another line that I played on the opener for more value (+268 as well as the +7.5 kills) back on Monday (again peep the Discord). At the current number this is more in line with what the model projection is albeit still with some short value on CLG. I still think CLG are worth a play at this number though for similar reasons to why I played Golden Guardians yesterday. First week is about as well prepared as most of these underdogs are going to be against the favorites. Second, yesterday’s game sort of got away from CLG so I wouldn’t overreact to it. Third, Liquid have benched Alphari (for mysterious reasons) in favor of academy player Jenkins. I don’t normally give a big bump because of subs, it’s typically one of the most overreacted to things in handicapping LOL but Alphari is an elite player and even if Jenkins is good in his first stage games it’s tough to really say this isn’t a downgrade. At the very least it’ll be disruptive to the lineup.
CLG still worth a play at this number but I’ll be tracking using the number I released to the public on Monday. At this point I’d just play the moneyline only though as you’ve lost a kill on the spread.
Kill Spread: CLG +7.5 kills @ -115 (1.15 units)(from 5/31)
Moneyline: CLG +268 (0.5 units)(from 5/31)
Immortals -238 vs Golden Guardians +180
Kill Total: 23.5 (over -122 / under -105)
Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -112 / +5.5 @ -115
Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 9.5
Time Total: 32:00 (over -132 / under +101)
Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -154 / +120
Suggested Play: Golden Guardians
Opener here was -213 / +157 ish. I’m putting next to no weight on what we saw yesterday but I gave slight bumps to both of these teams ratings going into the Summer and the Immortals win yesterday gave this a slight bump even though GGS also won which is a little odd to me. Look, it ain’t pretty but this is what we call a hold your nose special. Just take the dog here. This line wouldn’t have been too heavy handed last season when GGS were literally a full tier below even the other bad teams as they weren’t playing professional caliber LOL, but with some adjustments and an offseason of learning things they’re at least looking like a professional team now, albeit a bad one. Just take the dogs at this price point, it’s a solid amount of line value.
Moneyline: Golden Guardians +180 (1 unit)
I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.
Check out The Gold Card Podcast and can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL
(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)