Friday, June 25th Recap

 

Victory Five vs ThunderTalk Gaming (Net: pending)

LGD Gaming vs TOP Esports (Net: pending)

 

DRX vs KT Rolster (Net: pending)

DAMWON Kia vs Hanwha Life (Net: pending)

 

Misfits vs Excel (Net: pending)

MAD Lions vs SK Gaming (Net: pending)

Rogue vs Schalke (Net: pending)

Astralis vs Fnatic (Net: pending)

G2 Esports vs Vitality (Net: pending)

 

Team Liquid vs Evil Geniuses (Net: pending)

100 Thieves vs Dignitas (Net: pending)

Cloud 9 vs Golden Guardians (Net: pending)

Immortals vs CLG (Net: pending)

TSM vs FlyQuest (Net: pending)

 

Just to reiterate again, I’ll be off the grid this weekend so apologies in advance for the briefer breakdowns and recaps will come next week. I’m essentially doing my entire weekend worth of writing on Thursday.

 

LPL Net Total: —

LCK Net Total: —

LEC Net Total: —

LCS Net Total: —

 

Daily Net Total: —

 


 

LPL Summer 2021

Week Three – Day Six

 

For this weekend, all writeups assume typical starters. Again I’ll be out of commission so if you have a question regarding a substitution and how it impacts things ask John or Josh in the Discord and evaluate that against my opinions here.

 

RareAtom +109 (+1.5 maps @ -312, -1.5 @ +306)

vs

Team WE -145 (-1.5 maps @ +219, +1.5 @ -476)

 

Map Moneyline: RA -109 / WE -122

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -125 / under -108)

Kill Spread: +3.5 @ -114 / -3.5 @ -118

Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 13.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -135 / under +100)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  +114 / -153 (map), +131 / -176 (series), -247 / +179 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: Team WE series moneyline (map moneyline actually strongest value)

Starters:

(check Twitter for these or ask somebody in The Esports Department Discord if I don’t get to them)

RA –

WE –

League Rank WE Tale of the Tape RA League Rank
-124.0 Gold Diff @ 10 min 1027.1
-114.6 Gold Diff @ 15 min 299.3
200.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min 14.3
42.2 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 8.1
82.2 Gold Diff / min first 20 52.1
357.8 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 268.8
1829.0 Gold /min (GPM) 1769.5
53.0 Gold / min vs Avg -6.4
137.2 Gold Diff / min 53.2
2.0 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 0.7
6.0 1620.7 Kill Agnostic GPM 1595.0 9.0
5.0 76.2 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 50.9 4.0
11.0 1923.1 GPM in wins 1889.3 16.0
5.0 378.6 Gold Diff per min in wins 273.6 14.0
8.0 1640.6 GPM in losses 1530.0 17.0
12.0 -345.6 Gold Diff per min in losses -387.6 13.0
146.0 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 62.0
11.0 -22.0 Win-Adjusted GPM -55.8 16.0
5.0 50.2 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -54.8 14.0
52.5 Dragon Control % 52.1
66.7 Herald Control % 60.9
75.0 Baron Control % 46.7
3.0 Quality Wins? 2.0
50.0 % of wins as Quality 25.0

 (These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 32.335%
2 1 27.896%
1 2 21.162%
0 2 18.607%
(Series Win): 60.231%

I’m about as bullish as they come on RareAtom and I think this team is STILL being underrated by the betting markets but my first instinct when looking at this game earlier this week was to back Team WE. Since then I’ve cooled off a little on that position and not just because of WE’s absolute meltdown against FPX either although that’s definitely dulling my ambition on them. It’s been building up for awhile but the more and more I see it the more I actually question WE’d mental fortitude. Whenever something goes bad, particularly in game ones, it just seems like they’re out of sorts for the rest of the series, even in match wins. It’s tough to put a finger on because maybe it’s just coincident but I digress.

I was originally going to take WE in this spot but the vast majority of their positive performance metrics came from absolutey blowouts of TT and game two of their match against V5. RareAtom’s performance is much more consistent game-to-game regardless of the opponent. In short, I’m not sure just how good Team WE is yet. They still make a lot of questionable macro decisions and while I think they’ll end up being a pretty awesome team I’m kind of in wait and see mode for them so I’m going to pass on a side in this contest.

Actually, the play I like the most in this one is the kill total and time total unders.

WE League Average RA
Combined Kills / game 24.253 26.30 22.052
Combined Kills / min 0.789 0.86 0.762
Kills per win 16.875 18.30 15.531
Kills per loss 10.000 8.62 7.063
Deaths per win 6.67 7.94 9.38
Deaths per loss 18.67 17.86 15.75
Average Margin of Victory (AMOV) 10.50 10.38 6.25
Average Margin of Defeat (AMOD) 8.67 9.52 12.00

I project a total of 23.756 in this game which is a blend of time, book odd weighted, and rating weighted projections. That’s far below the total. Each of these teams is also going over 24.5 kills in less than 40% of their games so far albeit in a small sample size. The film makes sense too, I could see this being a more methodical, close fought affair.

My Picks:

Kill Total (alt): Map 1 UNDER 24.5 @ +110 (1 unit)

Kill Total (alt): Map 2 UNDER 24.5 @ +110 (1 unit)

Kill Total (alt): Map 3 UNDER 24.5 @ +110 (1 unit)

 

 


 

OMG +106 (+1.5 maps @ -286, -1.5 @ +315)

vs

BiliBili Gaming -141 (-1.5 maps @ +204, +1.5 @ -476)

 

Map Moneyline: OMG +109 / BLG -145

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -121 / under -109)

Kill Spread: +4.5 @ -118 / -4.5 @ -112

Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 14.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -128 / under -112)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  -120 / -111 (map), -122 / -108 (series), -344 / +239 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: OMG series moneyline (map moneyline strongest edge)

Starters:

OMG –

BLG –

League Rank BiliBili Tale of the Tape OMG League Rank
22.2 Gold Diff @ 10 min 464.4
-79.3 Gold Diff @ 15 min 268.1
-37.5 Gold Diff @ 20 min 12.5
-43.9 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -9.9
-35.0 Gold Diff / min first 20 -5.5
258.1 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -33.0
1725.6 Gold /min (GPM) 1750.9
-50.4 Gold / min vs Avg -25.0
-54.7 Gold Diff / min -33.0
-0.8 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -0.5
11.0 1588.8 Kill Agnostic GPM 1549.5 14.0
11.0 -16.8 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -81.3 13.0
12.0 1922.5 GPM in wins 1877.9 17.0
7.0 346.7 Gold Diff per min in wins 207.8 16.0
12.0 1613.0 GPM in losses 1560.5 14.0
9.0 -284.1 Gold Diff per min in losses -394.1 14.0
-46.0 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -24.2
12.0 -22.7 Win-Adjusted GPM -67.3 17.0
7.0 18.3 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -120.6 16.0
42.0 Dragon Control % 51.2
50.0 Herald Control % 52.6
57.1 Baron Control % 50.0
2.0 Quality Wins? 2.0
50.0 % of wins as Quality 33.3

 

 (These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
0 2 26.007%
1 2 25.488%
2 1 24.492%
2 0 24.013%
(Series Win): 48.505%

OMG have been playing better than I’ve seen them play in quite literally half a decade BUT it’s been mostly off of some absolutely heroic performances by rookie mid lane dynamo Creme (the cream of the crop, rise to the top…). They deserve props but it’s fair to question just how sustainable it is, especially once teams start picking up on how they’re winning now that teams have to pay attention to them. Now, it might be delusional to ask the LPL to make quick adjustments, it’s not exactly something this league likes to do with each team much preferring to do their own thing (to each their own).

BiliBili have been quietly treading water against a very difficult schedule of Suning, LGD (their easiest matchup so far), LNG, and EDG. They took LGD, LNG, and EDG to three games each despite losing to LNG and EDG. I think BiliBili are probably better than where the model is rating them although I’m not entirely sure just how good they are. I like this roster on paper quite a bit and while they’ve had their hiccups at times this season they’ve also shown flashes of what they could be.

OMG are hot at the moment which makes this feel a little strange but I’m going against the model and backing BiliBili here. Even a week ago you would have looked at me like I was crazy if I told you this was the line for this matchup. Props where they’re due but this feels like a double swing interpretation angle to me.

There are some wild gaps in the derivatives on this one. OMG with a 70% first blood rate are intriguing vs the sub 37% of BLG and conversely BLG first tower at 72%+ vs OMG’s 30% is also appealing. Smallish samples, not sure how this is going to play out from a stylistic perspective and normally if I can’t put the number to a script based on how the teams play then I’m less bullish on it but just wanted to call attention to it.

Kill Total unders are also a good look here.

 

My Picks:

Moneyline: BiliBili -141 (1.41 units)

Map Spread: BiliBili -1.5 maps @ +204 (0.5 units)

Kill Total (alt): Map 1 UNDER 24.5 @ +109 (1 unit)

Kill Total (alt): Map 2 UNDER 24.5 @ +109 (1 unit)

Kill Total (alt): Map 3 UNDER 24.5 @ +109 (1 unit)

 

 


 

 

Royal Never Give Up +129 (+1.5 maps @ -256, -1.5 @ +356)

vs

FunPlus Phoenix -172 (-1.5 maps @ +186, +1.5 @ -556)

 

Map Moneyline: RNG +116 / FPX -154

Kill Total: 27.5 (over -111 / under -119)

Kill Spread: +3.5 @ -116 / -3.5 @ -14

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 14.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -126 / under -105)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  —

Model Suggested Play:

Starters:

RNG –

FPX –

League Rank FunPlus Tale of the Tape Royal Never GU League Rank
1504.2 Gold Diff @ 10 min 101.3
1251.8 Gold Diff @ 15 min 247.5
208.3 Gold Diff @ 20 min 380.0
105.2 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 11.1
137.9 Gold Diff / min first 20 -36.0
280.8 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -259.5
1930.4 Gold /min (GPM) 1768.1
154.4 Gold / min vs Avg -7.8
219.4 Gold Diff / min -90.4
3.1 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -1.2
1.0 1692.9 Kill Agnostic GPM 1616.0 7.0
3.0 149.3 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 23.5 9.0
3.0 1996.8 GPM in wins 1982.7 5.0
6.0 378.6 Gold Diff per min in wins 385.0 3.0
1.0 1731.1 GPM in losses 1714.5 2.0
6.0 -258.4 Gold Diff per min in losses -209.3 3.0
228.1 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -81.6
3.0 51.7 Win-Adjusted GPM 37.5 5.0
6.0 50.2 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 56.6 3.0
74.5 Dragon Control % 39.1
54.2 Herald Control % 50.0
57.1 Baron Control % 22.2
6.0 Quality Wins? 1.0
66.7 % of wins as Quality 100.0

 (These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 65.303%
2 1 25.063%
1 2 5.952%
0 2 3.683%
(Series Win): 90.366%

So obviously FPX aren’t 90% to win this series but again these are strictly number from just Summer. The thing is, a blend of these two would spit out an FPX favored position as well. FPX were the top graded team at the end of the Spring season despite losing the finals match to RNG. Below were the final Spring power ratings.

Team Rating Rank
FunPlus 1.184826212 1
TOP 1.118694604 2
Invictus 0.6505450026 3
Royal Never GU 0.5525271581 4
WE 0.4920333222 5
JDG 0.4766116842 6
EDG 0.4716306658 7
Suning 0.2108938465 8
Vici 0.2056701476 9
Victory Five -0.04455769417 10
Dominus -0.3157119843 11
LNG -0.3695441193 12
BiliBili -0.5897064915 13
LGD -0.9229199488 14
eStar -0.9307005046 15
OMG -1.016690585 16
Rogue Warriors -1.173601315 17

I was on FunPlus at -250 in those finals for a reason and we’re getting a much kinder number here.

Now, few things. Obviously RNG are better than this they’ve just had a bit of a rough start. Their “embarrassing” loss to OMG has a lot of people very down on this team but an MSI hangover, general rust, a weird metagame to adapt to, and running into a few hot teams in OMG and LNG certainly doesn’t help you get off on the right foot. The concern here is that this was supposed to be the “easy part” of the schedule.

I think RNG are going to be fine but FunPlus are in much better form right now and I’ll be backing them in this position.

My Picks:

Moneyline: FunPlus -172 (1.72 units)

Map Spread: FunPlus -1.5 maps @ +186 (0.5 units)

 


 

LCK Summer

Week Three – Day Four

 

 

Gen.G -323 (-1.5 maps @ +106, +1.5 @ -1429)

vs

Afreeca Freecs +227 (+1.5 maps @ -141, -1.5 @ +622)

 

Map Moneyline: GEG -256 / AF +184

Kill Total: 22.5 (over -124 / under -107)

Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -109 / +6.5 @ -121

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 8.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -123 / under -117)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  -111 / -120 (map), -109 / -121 (series), -347 / +240 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: Afreeca series moneyline (very strong)

League Rank GEG Tale of the Tape AF League Rank
217.2 Gold Diff @ 10 min 1775.9
1094.6 Gold Diff @ 15 min 620.6
741.8 Gold Diff @ 20 min 85.5
27.7 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 39.2
55.5 Gold Diff / min first 20 86.2
528.1 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 227.3
1851.0 Gold /min (GPM) 1820.6
91.1 Gold / min vs Avg 60.7
184.6 Gold Diff / min 122.4
2.6 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 1.8
1.0 1657.5 Kill Agnostic GPM 1656.5 2.0
1.0 102.0 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 75.3 3.0
3.0 1926.4 GPM in wins 1914.2 4.0
6.0 307.6 Gold Diff per min in wins 317.7 5.0
2.0 1650.2 GPM in losses 1633.3 4.0
1.0 -143.7 Gold Diff per min in losses -268.0 3.0
186.5 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 124.4
3.0 29.3 Win-Adjusted GPM 17.2 4.0
6.0 26.8 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 36.8 5.0
59.6 Dragon Control % 56.7
54.5 Herald Control % 70.8
64.3 Baron Control % 66.7
5.0 Quality Wins? 6.0
62.5 % of wins as Quality 75.0

 

 (These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
0 2 25.908%
1 2 25.442%
2 1 24.542%
2 0 24.108%
(Series Win): 48.650%

 

How about those Afreeca Freecs eh? This was a team myself and the model were high on all season long last season and they just couldn’t help but punt games later in the game. Fast forward to this season and they’ve seemingly remedied MOST, if not all of these issues. Hopefully I’m not speaking too soon because I thought the same thing about Sandbox and their nightmarish past came back to haunt them like the alien popping out of John Hurt in the scene in Spaceballs in the restaurant (“Hello my baby, hello my honey…”).

The model is extremely bullish on Afreeca and after their match on Monday and Gen.G’s this morning it actually has Afreeca as the top rated team in the LCK. Am I that bullish? No, but I do think this is an EXCELLENT spot to back them. Gen.G probably should have lost their series this morning and I think Afreeca are even better than Sandbox are. This is absolutely worth taking a shot on the underdog.

My Picks:

Map Spread: Afreeca +1.5 maps @ -141 (2.82 units)

Moneyline: Afreeca +227 (1 unit)

Map Spread: Afreeca -1.5 maps @ +622 (0.5 units)

 


 

 

Fredit Brion +194 (+1.5 maps @ -169, -1.5 @ +512)

vs

Nongshim RedForce -270 (-1.5 maps @ +126, +1.5 @ -1000)

 

Map Moneyline: BRO +156 / NS -213

Kill Total: 21.5 (over -119 / under -111)

Kill Spread: +5.5 @ -124 / -5.5 @ -107

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 8.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -105 / under -138)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  -113 / -117 (map), -112 / -118 (series), -357 / +246 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: Brion series moneyline (strong)

League Rank NS Tale of the Tape BRO League Rank
-480.4 Gold Diff @ 10 min 52.0
-592.7 Gold Diff @ 15 min -288.3
88.3 Gold Diff @ 20 min -492.3
-18.3 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -20.6
-46.6 Gold Diff / min first 20 -2.2
121.5 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -63.7
1767.8 Gold /min (GPM) 1730.0
7.8 Gold / min vs Avg -29.9
29.5 Gold Diff / min -17.5
0.5 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -0.3
5.0 1608.4 Kill Agnostic GPM 1598.7 7.0
6.0 9.4 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -23.0 8.0
9.0 1865.0 GPM in wins 1936.1 2.0
7.0 254.4 Gold Diff per min in wins 331.5 3.0
5.0 1631.6 GPM in losses 1553.3 10.0
5.0 -285.3 Gold Diff per min in losses -316.7 7.0
31.5 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -15.6
9.0 -32.1 Win-Adjusted GPM 39.1 2.0
7.0 -26.5 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 50.6 3.0
51.9 Dragon Control % 63.9
58.3 Herald Control % 46.2
63.6 Baron Control % 40.0
4.0 Quality Wins? 0.0
66.7 % of wins as Quality 0.0

 

 (These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 25.402%
2 1 25.198%
1 2 24.798%
0 2 24.602%
(Series Win): 50.600%

The LCK really is up in the air right now it’s kind of crazy. DRX and Hanwha Life are the current bottom dwellers and frankly it wouldn’t surprise me if it stayed that way with how they’re both playing right now. The other eight teams have a very small gap between them if you look at performance metrics. My thesis on the overall improvement on the LCK has mostly come to fruition thus far, just something to monitor.

Look, both of these teams are coming off of “upset” wins against DAMWON and T1 but both are sort of mired in questions. We had the weird hour long game one between T1 and Nongshim that would tilt anyone in a loss and DAMWON are currently doing their roster shuffle thang. I don’t want to take credit away from these wins entirely, both Brion and Nongshim played excellently in them but it’s just worth putting that asterisk for consideration.

I never in a million years thought I’d say it but I actually think these two teams are fairly evenly matched and the model seems to agree with me. Nongshim have the better roster to me but it’s not by such an overwhelming degree that they should be this heavily favored against Brion. Take a shot on the underdogs, they’ve been killin’ it in the LCK.

My Picks:

Map Spread: Brion +1.5 maps @ -169 (1.69 units)

Moneyline: Brion +194 (0.5 units)

Map Spread: Brion -1.5 maps @ +512 (0.25 units)

 


LEC Summer 2021

Week Three – Day Two

 

SK Gaming +136 vs Excel Esports -182

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -125 / under -109)

Kill Spread: +4.5 @ -120 / -4.5 @ -112

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 13.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -124 / under -116)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  SK -110 / XL -120

Model Suggested Play: SK Gaming moneyline

 

Lillip will be replacing Jesiz who will return to the head coaching role that he previously held with the team. Lillip has been kicking around the European domestic scene on various teams over the past year or so and finally got his big break on SK Gaming Prime at EU Masters. I haven’t watched more than a few games of him so I don’t really have much of an evaluation.

There is clearly something going on with SK unless this was the intention all along. I don’t want to say it’s necessarily a toxic situation, maybe there were money or contract issues we don’t know about but it’s a little weird to suddenly switch mid season like this. I guess if they don’t think they’re going anywhere it makes sense. I don’t know.

Excel had a rough start but have looked ok the past few matches including a win over the MAD Lions last week.

It feels like I should be on Excel in this spot but this also feels a little rich for them. I can’t get a good read on this match. I’d lean toward the model’s SK play but I’m passing.

 

My Picks:

no wagers

 


 

Schalke 04  +126 vs Misfits Gaming -169

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -125 / under -108)

Kill Spread: +3.5 @ -109 / -3.5 @ -123

Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 13.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -105 / under -136)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  S04 +140 / MSF -189

Model Suggested Play: none

 

I was a little more optimistic than most that this Schalke lineup could maybe repeat their Spring finish but it certainly hasn’t looked great so far. Don’t get me wrong, they don’t look bad but there’s just not a lot going on in their first five games here. Kirei has had a very lackluster start and he’s going to have to get it together with Nuclearint in a hurry for me to have any real faith in this team. Brokenblade and the bottom lane remain strong.

Misfits are very well-suited for this type of metagame and until I see reason otherwise I’m going to remain very bullish on them just like I was before the season began.

 

My Picks:

Moneyline: Misfits -169 (1.69 units)

 


 

Rogue -455 vs Astralis +304

 

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -109 / under -125)

Kill Spread: -7.5 @ -128 / +7.5 @ -105

Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 8.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -127 / under -113)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  ROG -1142 / AST +576

Model Suggested Play: Rogue moneyline

 

I’ve got enough questions about Rogue in this metagame to not lay this kind of price on the moneyline but I fully expect a regression from Astralis as well so I’m sort of caught between a rock and a hard place on this one. Gut tells me Rogue smash but the right play is probably Astralis kill spread.

I like the under 12.5 towers more than either side in this contest.

 

My Picks:

Prop: UNDER 12.5 towers @ -213 (2.13 units)

 


 

Team Vitality +156 vs MAD Lions -213

 

Kill Total: 27.5 (over -115 / under -118)

Kill Spread: +5.5 @ -111 / -5.5 @ -122

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 15.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -118 / under -122

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  MAD -502 / VIT +321

Model Suggested Play: MAD moneyline

 

With how volatile these two teams are stylistically and the fact that they both beat themselves more often than they should, I’m a little hesitant to lay the money here but I do think MAD Lions are probably the correct side in this contest. I could see anything happening in this contest. I’d lean toward MAD but pass.

 

My Picks:

no wagers

 


 

G2 Esports -192 vs Fnatic +143

 

Kill Total: 30.5 (over -108 / under -125)

Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -111 / +5.5 @ -122

Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 12.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -105 / under -138)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  G2 -129 / FNC -102

Model Suggested Play: Fnatic moneyline

 

The new school El Clasico is always an interesting matchup seemingly regardless of where the teams are in their overall trajectories. I’m a lot more bullish than my colleagues are on this new look Fnatic. So many of the things that I thought were negatives and couldn’t stand about this Spring iteration of this team look so much better in their first two weeks of action. G2 also look much improved from their Spring version although as I mentioned yesterday they’ve still got a lot of work to do.

I’m going to go with the underdogs here. Looking strictly as Summer, these teams are more or less evenly matched.

G2 Tale of the Tape FNC
845.2 Gold Diff @ 10 min 957.6
354.7 Gold Diff @ 15 min 1054.9
429.8 Gold Diff @ 20 min 159.8
46.0 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 77.0
19.4 Gold Diff / min first 20 45.9
172.0 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 381.3
1907.7 Gold /min (GPM) 1904.1
130.0 Gold / min vs Avg 126.3
172.0 Gold Diff / min 159.8
2.3 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 2.3
1651.5 Kill Agnostic GPM 1649.9
100.5 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 100.7
1975.4 GPM in wins 1958.5
290.7 Gold Diff per min in wins 351.7
1637.1 GPM in losses 1822.4
-302.6 Gold Diff per min in losses -128.2
172.0 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 159.8
68.2 Dragon Control % 69.6
10.0 Herald Control % 70.0
66.7 Baron Control % 71.4
3.0 Quality Wins? 2.0
75.0 % of wins as Quality 66.7

(this is just Summer composite)

 

My Picks:

Moneyline: Fnatic +143 (1 unit)

 


LCS Summer 2021

Week Four – Day Two

 

 

 

Team Liquid -222 vs CLG +164

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -114 / under -118)

Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -123 / +5.5 @ -110

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -106 / under -127)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  TL -140 / CLG +106

Model Suggested Play: CLG moneyline

 

While I’m not entirely buying this CLG hype coming off of the 3-0 weekend for reasons I discussed in yesterday’s post (sustainability, etc) and while I don’t want to overreact to the Liquid news, it’s tough to ignore that this line was actually reasonable before all of that happened. I think you just play CLG here and if Liquid’s players are just too good then so be it but this might be a sell low on Liquid for a couple of weeks while they get their feet back under them. IF they prove use wrong this weekend then maybe we shouldn’t dismiss them and we can use their value next week.

My Picks:

Moneyline: CLG +164 (1 unit)

 


 

FlyQuest -109 vs Dignitas -122

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -106 / under -127)

Kill Spread: -1.5 @ -112 / +1.5 @ -120

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 12.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -127 / under -106)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  FLY -119 / DIG -112

Model Suggested Play: none

 

We talked about this one a bit on the podcast but it’s tough to want anything to do with Dignitas right now. They look like the worst team in the league… and right there next to them and Golden Guardians is FlyQuest. I legitimately have no idea what to expect from this game so I’m just going to stay the hell away from it. If I absolutely had to take a position it’d be FlyQuest.

 

My Picks:

no wagers

 


 

Cloud 9 -101 vs 100 Thieves -132

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -125 / under -109)

Kill Spread: +2.5 @ -122 / -2.5 @ -111

Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 12.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -120 / under -112)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  C9 +135 / 100T -182

Model Suggested Play: 100 Thieves moneyline

Zven is returning to the lineup and as I discussed in Friday’s post, don’t automatically assume it will just magically fix all of the small issues Cloud 9 have been having. Respect other teams. Everyone has adjusted to what Cloud 9 does and we saw something very similar last season so don’t rule out that teams have just solved Blaber again and Cloud 9 are going to have to get creative. I’m assuming they’ll be fine but 100 Thieves are the best team in the league at the moment and this is just a bad time to get in their way.

The weird thing with both of these teams is that they both get completely smashed in losses so there’s a chance this is just a lopsided stomp regardless which makes me like the unders.

I’ll be on 100 Thieves and the under time total.

 

My Picks:

Kill Spread (alt): 100T -3.5 kills @ +100 (1 unit)

Time Total: UNDER 32:00 @ -112 (1.12 units)

 

 


 

Evil Geniuses +140 vs Team Solo Mid -189

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -110 / under -123)

Kill Spread: +4.5 @ -114 / -4.5 @ -119

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 13.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -127 / under -106)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  EG +115 / TSM -153

Model Suggested Play: Evil Geniuses moneyline

 

This is one of those EG spots. We don’t like this team as big favorites but we love them as underdogs. I think TSM are probably better than the performances they’ve put up while simultaneously being a little lucky to have as many wins as they have this season. They’re the better team but this number is just a bit too rich.

I also like the time total under in this but we’re going to play it alternatively through the under 4.5 dragons at plus money.

My Picks:

Moneyline: Evil Geniuses +140 (1 unit)

Prop: UNDER 4.5 dragons @ +134 (1 unit)

 


 

Golden Guardians +149 vs Immortals -200

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -108 / under -125)

Kill Spread: +5.5 @ -110 / -5.5 @ -123

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 13.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -114 / under -118)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  GGS +200 / IMT -278

Model Suggested Play: Immortals moneyline

 

Immortals are legit. I think they might end up being the 5th best team in the league. I don’t know if they’re likely to actually take down the Summer split but I wouldn’t be surprised to see this team snipe a World spot if they can continue to steadily improve like they have throughout the course of the season. Insanity is one of the best players in the league and this team is really firing on all cylinders right now. The power of friendship right? Read that Upstart article.

I know this seems weird because of last season but they were underrated then too. Immortals are a quality team.

 

My Picks:

Moneyline: Immortals -200 (2 units)


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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