Friday June 19th Recap
FunPlus vs Team WE (Net: +0.5 units)
Game one was a big of a slugfest but mostly controlled by Funplus. Game two started with this weird top lane 3v3 around the 8 minute mark that felt really forced by FPX even after realizing the WE were responding to it and devolved into a wild multi-baron, mountain soul scale fest that Team WE ended up winning off of the mountain soul fight. Game three was a fairly clean dragon soul snowball into a win by FPX but some of the team fights were surprisingly close.
Regarding the early parts of game two, I’m not entirely sure if it was disrespect or if FPX are just continuing to show overzealousness but it’s becoming a trend at this point. They’re looking more like they did in Spring 2019, The Juggernaut, instead of the more refined version of that Juggernaut that we saw win the world championship. I’m going to monitor this situation moving forward because it’s concerning for their consistency. We might not be able to trust FPX to 2-0 like we did since Summer last year.
eStar vs LNG (Net: +4.095 units)
I was more or less dead on about LNG. When they weren’t spotted a lead they struggled to create on their own and as long as the team facing them has good execution they’re going to look more like the team that they were last season which was toward the bottom of the table.
LPL Total: +4.595 units
Sandbox vs DAMWON (Net: +1.035 units)
I don’t think Sandbox looked particularly bad in this series but DAMWON were just really clean and they made the mistake of giving Nuguri Jayce in game one and then DAMWON managed to pick up Syndra and swap it bottom paired with Pantheon for a kill lane to completely dumpster the Aphelios.
We need to see more of this. When champions become so ubiquitous that have exposable weaknesses, like Aphelios, teams need to be more willing to punish those but many don’t for fear of looking bad or some other psychological construct. The LCK is particularly guilty of this in recent years but so far this season we’ve seen some great adjustments even in just the first week of play. Ziggs, Bard, Syndra kill lanes, Twitch+Yuumi. All of these are excellent solutions to a problem and should have been explored much earlier than they were.
For a team that’s as stubborn as DAMWON have been for all of 2020, it’s really good to see them stepping into the proverbial twenty first century and playing season ten League of Legends. These games were honestly as progressive as pretty much anything we’ve seen on earth this Summer which is a fresh new look. I’m quite excited for DAMWON if they’ve shown this. It’s a big green light for me because this was a concern I had for them.
DragonX vs Gen.G (Net: -1.28 units)
Bdd had a pretty poor series overall here, maybe the worst of his career but it’s somewhat understandable against Chovy. I think I trust DragonX with tempo/snowball compositions more than I do with the generic “op champs” compositions sometimes. This team understands the urgency you need to play with and they have the chops to execute well enough on them to make it work. It’s a potent tool in the LCK inparticular. I think if Bdd wasn’t as off his game as he was this is probably a more competitive series.
LCK Total: -0.245 units
Vitality vs Rogue (Net: -0.25 units)
This game felt a little scary at times with the Kassadin scaling but Rogue just dominated the macro game to such a huge degree and completely dictated the pace of the game even down in kills. Rogue are playing incredibly well right now and outside of the top teams with the elite individuals they’re going to be the new Origen. Their macro is just too clean and they probably won’t lose very often to the non-elite teams.
Misfits vs SK Gaming (Net: -0.005 units)
SK Gaming continue to look good. Trick in particular looks like a reinvigorated player and much improved from last split regardless of the champion he’s playing. Jenax pulled out the Volibear top and just dunked all over Dan Dan. The Voli is really lane dominant but that’s a few games in a row now where Dan Dan has just been destroyed. I’m not surprised but I was expecting at least some level of improvement or progression and it doesn’t seem to be the case so far. He’ll continue to be a huge liability. I was skeptical of this team’s ceiling before the season started due to him and I’m now questioning whether or not it’s such a detriment that it’s going to pull them down more than I initially thought.
G2 Esports vs Schalke 04 (Net: -2.18)
Unfortunately G2 played this one relatively close to the vest and ended up winning a fight so hard that they didn’t have to extend the game at all just closing it early 12-7. G2 played a high mobility “scatter” composition here vs the AOE wombo on Schalke’s side and just kinda ran them around every fight.
Origen vs Excel (Net: +1.0 units)
I love the way Origen play. Just such solid fundamental League of Legends. Disciplined, intelligent decision making. Utilizing objectives and the map for leverage, long-term pressure plays. Never doing anything they don’t need to. No dumb fights. You love to see it. chefskiss
Fnatic vs MAD Lions (Net: +0.48 units)
I absolutely loved the drafts by both teams here with the Soraka carry and the runback of the Senna/Wukong but unfortunately Nemesis made a fatal error at the elder drake fight. Shadow also had a miraculous steal on one of the early drakes to speed up the drake progression in favor of MAD or Fnatic might have just outscaled and won this game.
I love that teams are pushing the boundaries like this and I hope that they aren’t scared off of doing this just because of a loss.
LEC Total: -0.705 units
Golden Guardians vs CLG (Net: -0.8725 units)
Little disappointing but such is North America.
Immortals vs Team Solo Mid (Net: +0.75 units)
Ahhh yes, the mid Fiddlesticks (MiddleSticks) from Bjergsen. For those that don’t know, this ends up playing like a weird version of the Galio or Sion or other tank mid laners. He’s all about shoving and getting out to a side lane. Fiddle is a little stronger as a counter engage and CC machine than an all-in diver but he can do a bit of both.
Parlay: -0.25 units)
LCS Total: -0.3725 units
Daily Total Net: +3.27 units
LPL Summer 2020
Week 3 – Day 6
Overall LPL Trends:
Kill Spreads: Favorites 39-33
Kill Totals: Under 41-31
Time Totals: Under 43-29
Favorites 21-9 outright, 15-15 against the map spread
Three underdog 2-0’s in 32 series
Dominus Esports +190 (+1.5 maps @ -161, -1.5 @ +466) vs
OMG -250 (-1.5 maps @ +127)
Kill Total: 23.5 (over -122 / under -108)
Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 13.5
Kill Spread: +5.5 @ -125 / -5.5 @ -103
Time Total: OTB
DMO – Chelizi, Xiaopeng, Twila, Xubin, Mitsuki
OMG – Curse, H4cker, Icon, Smlz, Cold
Dominus are starting two different players and I honestly can’t blame them. Chelizi isn’t a newcomer to the LPL. He’s played 28 games on the LPL stage all for Vici Gaming in 2019 and has just five wins although it should be noted that those Vici teams were very bad. He plays a lot of different champions but prefers to play the carries when the matchups allow it. His five most played are Sion, Renekton, Urgot, Gnar, and Jax but he’s played a little bit of everything in his LPL/LDL career. Xubin will be filling in at ADC and this will be his first time playing on the LPL stage. He’s a career LDL (academy) league player battling for playing time there since 2018. So far this season he has a 6-1 record with a 7.3 KDA, a 9.12 cs/min and 455 gold/min.
On one hand it’s understandable that Dominus are just trying anything at this point. On the other, to quote my good friend Jason “Out of the frying pan into the fire.” Now, OMG might not exactly be the fires of Mount Doom but they are coming off of a win over TOP Esports and these are good, individual professional players. On the podcast I talked about this as a hold your nose/close your eyes special for Dominus just because OMG shouldn’t be favored by this much over anybody but that was before this news and I think they’ll get the job done against a few career minor leaguers regardless of how hungry they might be. I also think that both of these teams are going to attempt to lane kingdom each other to death and OMG just have the better players across the board in that scenario anyway.
Underdog Win: 22.85
“G” Projected Total: 24.6
New players either make a lot of mistakes or they’re very hesitant. Given Chelizi’s history I’d expect him to try to play a carry in the top lane against Curse and probably get dumpstered in the process. Smlz and Cold haven’t been great but I’d expect Xubin to stick to the meta champions. The changes don’t really influence my wager on this total up or down either way I was going to be on the under. Dominus have only faced relatively bloody teams so far in Victory Five, eStar, and a 44 kill game against LGD. Projections are going to show a higher number than I think will happen in this game, which will likely be a slow and boring OMG win.
Moneyline: OMG -250 (2.5 units)
Spread: OMG -1.5 maps @ +127 (0.5 units)
Kill Total: Map 1 UNDER 23.5 @ -108 (1.08 units)
Kill Total: Map 2 UNDER 23.5 @ +101 (1 unit)
LGD Gaming +251 (+1.5 maps @ -127, -1.5 @ +588) vs
TOP Esports -345 (-1.5 maps @ -101)
Kill Total: 25.5 (over -116 / under -112)
Kill Spread: +6.5 @ -119 / -6.5 @ -110
Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 15.5
Time Total: OTB
LGD – Langx, Peanut, Xiye, Kramer, Mark
TOP – 369, Karsa, Knight, JackeyLove, Yuyanjia
“This is primarily a play against LGD who look like a team that’s just playing without any core understanding of how to navigate games or win conditions. TOP may have looked sloppy against OMG but I not only think that’s a wakeup call but that we shouldn’t downgrade them just because of an off day. LGD’s problems appear more deep-rooted and will take time to iron out. Unfortunately for them they’re running into arguably the best team in the world on Saturday. I’ll take the favorites before this line gets out of hand closer to game time.”
My thoughts haven’t changed. We saw an off series from TOP and I’ve mentioned how many red flags I’ve seen in LGD’s play so far in that post’s recap.
Underdog Win: 24.0
“G” Projected Total: 27.4
This is a fairly high total given the anticipated result of this game but TOP have shown a propensity to run up the score before so while I’m tempted to take the under I’ll be passing in this spot.
Spread: TOP -1.5 maps @ -111 (1.11 units)
LCK Summer 2020
Week 1 – Day 4
Afreeca Freecs -200 (-1.5 maps @ +158) vs
Team Dynamics +153 (+1.5 maps @ -204, -1.5 @ +365)
Kill Total: 21.5 (over -122 / under -108)
Kill Spread: -4.5 @ -114 / +4.5 @ -115
Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 9.5
Time Total: OTB
I wrote quite a bit about both of these teams in the recaps for their first matches. I don’t think I gave enough credit to the metagame suiting Afreeca, particularly Fly and All-In’s champion pools both involving Twisted Fate and other “get out of lane” global influence type mid laners. It’s a good fit for them and Afreeca looked outstanding as an uptempo team in this mold early in Spring before falling off a cliff. In the pre-season writeup I mentioned that Afreeca have the widest range of outcomes and it appears that’s true. For that reason it also wouldn’t surprise me to see them immediately turn back into a pumpkin here although they’ve been a bit of a streaky team this year so maybe I should ride them while they’re hot.
Team Dynamics seriously impressed me. That series looked crisp and clean from an execution standpoint, they identified their win conditions and played to them flawlessly. It wasn’t as much a poor showing by KT as it was an excellent showing from Team Dynamics who look remarkably polished for a new LCK team even if some of the players have been here before.
Both of these teams looked good and I don’t think what I saw from Dynamics is a fluke. My only concern is Kiin, one of the best in the world at his position, against a rookie in Rich. The former Heroes of the Storm pro showed us he’s got the chops to hang at this level but he hasn’t faced anybody on the level of Kiin yet. Still, give me the underdogs here.
I’ll be mostly passing on these until I get more data.
Spread: Team Dynamics +1.5 maps @ -204 (2.04 units)
Moneyline: Dynamics +153 (0.5 units)
Spread: Dynamics -1.5 maps @ +365 (0.25 units)
T1 -667 (-1.5 maps @ -167) vs
Hanwha Life Esports +428 (+1.5 maps @ +131)
Kill Total: 19.5 (over -120 / under -109)
Kill Spread: -7.5 @ -103 / +7.5 @ -127
Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 6.5
Time Total: OTB
On the podcast this week I was really looking forward to playing Hanwha in this spot but similar to the Immortals/CLG debacle in the LCS, Hanwha and APK somehow managed to raise so many red flags in just a single series that they’ve prompted a massive shift in expectation even from my more reserved “it’s just one series” ways. At least in the short term anyway.
T1 are going to roll. Don’t overthink it.
This total is extremely low but I’m going to pass since I could legitimately see this being a 10-3 stomping.
Spread: T1 -1.5 maps @ -167 (1.67 units)
LEC Summer 2020
Week 2 – Day 2
SK Gaming -204 vs Excel +158
Kill Total: 22.5 (over -115 / under -114)
Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -112 / +6.5 @ -116
Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 8.5
Time Total: OTB
Excel were put to bed by Origen’s squeaky clean macro and didn’t really offer much in the way of a fight. I still don’t think this team is quite as bad as they’ve looked through four games but it’s also difficult to justify getting in the way of this SK team who look like a completely different team than we saw in Spring. On one hand I think regression will eventually come but on the other, I watch their film and this team is legitimately playing really well. It’s not bad throws by their opponents either. SK are making proactive plays, forcing errors, and utilizing momentum and early game pace to create advantages for themselves. You could argue that SK have faced a schedule of slower paced opponents (Origen, Schalke, Misfits) which are exactly the kinds of teams you want to play this style against but Excel aren’t much different.
Everything points to SK Gaming but this is a real backs against the wall moment for Excel and I don’t want to lay -204 with a team that’s started hot and feeling themselves against a cornered fighter. As a matter of fact I’m going to take the Excel kill spread. Underdog kill spreads have been hitting at over a 60% clip.
Moneyline: Excel +158 (0.5 units)
Kill Spread: Excel +6.5 @ -116 (1.16 units)
Misfits -270 vs Schalke 04 +202
Kill Total: 22.5 (over -110 / under -119)
Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -115 / +6.5 @ -114
Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 7.5
Time Total: OTB
Given SK Gaming’s current form it’s difficult to fault Misfits for the loss but I will say that Dan Dan hasn’t improved and remains a massive liability in the top lane. Odoamne hasn’t had a strong split so far but this is definitely a matchup that they can exploit in the top side of the map. This should be a bit of a slugfest. Both of these teams have had rough starts and are teams that I expected to perform much better than they have so far. Again, I’ll take the dog and dog spread in this spot. I know Schalke haven’t looked great but neither have Misfits and this number is simply too large.
Moneyline: Schalke +202 (0.5 units)
Kill Spread: Schalke +6.5 @ -114 (1.14 units)
Team Vitality +164 vs MAD Lions -213
Kill Total: 22.5 (over -120 / under -109)
Kill Spread: +6.5 @ -123 / -6.5 @ -105
Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 8.5
Time Total: OTB
MAD looks really REALLY good. They’re versatile, adapting to curveballs thrown at them, innovating on their own, and are able to hang even against the elite teams like G2 and Fnatic. Vitality have had a promising start but this number is just flat out wrong. Unless you believe in a hangover or that MAD focused most of their preparation on Fnatic, MAD are going to completely smash this and this line is egregious.
Moneyline: MAD Lions -213 (1.065 units)
Kill Spread: MAD Lions -6.5 kills @ -105 (1.05 units)
G2 Esports -227 vs Rogue +175
Kill Total: 24.5 (over -105 / under -123)
Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -115 / +5.5 @ -114
Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 9.5
Time Total: OTB
Rogue look really sharp but they remind me a lot of Origen in that their by-the-book fundamental based macro game is incredibly consistent at beating inferior players but struggles against good improvisers and exceptional individual talents like those on G2 and Fnatic. You could make an argument for peak form vs working back into form here and justify a Rogue selection but G2 rarely lose matchups against teams like this.
Moneyline: G2 -227 (0.5675 units)
Kill Spread: G2 -5.5 kills @ -115 (0.2875 units)
Fnatic -179 vs Origen +139
Kill Total: 22.5 (over -111 / under -118)
Kill Spread: -4.5 @ -125 / +4.5 @ -103
Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 8.5
Time Total: OTB
I’ve mentioned it a few times already this weekend but Origen and Rogue style teams struggle against the great “jazz artists” of Fnatic and G2 and this is yet another instance of that matchup. You’re almost never going to get Fnatic at this kind of number against a team that they’ve historically smashed and we’re only getting it because of the early season weighted adjusments to strength of opponent and win/loss models that the books use. Origen surprised G2 when they were off form, and are coming off of a win while Fnatic are coming off of a loss so the systems see these teams as closer than they actually are. Take Fnatic.
Moneyline: Fnatic -179 (1.3425 units)
I’m shaving some of my stake in G2 and FNC to play a parlay with them on the moneylines.
Parlay (2): G2 ML + FNC ML @ +125 (0.5 units)
LCS Summer 2020
Week 2 – Day 2
I don’t have a lot of action in the LCS today except for Liquid who I think are egregiously mispriced. This league feels like three or four tiers. Elite with Cloud 9 and Liquid, good with EG, TSM and FlyQuest, not Immortals which is everything but Immortals, and Immortals. It feels like any of the bottom five teams can beat each other at any moment but the prices we’re getting are appropriate for the time being. The fact that a lot of these teams have such gaping fundamental flaws makes their game-to-game consistency very poor. This makes trusting favorites difficult especially toward the bottom of the table but the books have appropriately priced this well.
100 Thieves +141 vs Team Liquid -182
Kill Total: 19.5 (over -114 / under -114)
Kill Spread: +4.5 @ -108 / -4.5 @ -122
Team Kill Totals: 7.5 / 12.5
Time Total: OTB
I’m going to be all over Liquid until the books respect this team as one of the elite teams. They still have a ton of last seasons results baked into this price.
Kill Spread: Liquid -4.5 kills @ -122 (1.22 units)
FlyQuest +105 vs Team Solo Mid -133
Kill Total: 21.5 (over -119 / under -110)
Kill Spread: +1.5 @ -114 / -1.5 @ -115
Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 11.5
Time Total: OTB
TSM have looked good thusfar but I do think this line is just about right.
Cloud 9 -286 vs Evil Geniuses +214
Kill Total: 23.5 (over -112 / under -116)
Kill Spread: -7.5 @ -114 / +7.5 @ -114
Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 8.5
Time Total: OTB
This is a challenging one because I do think that Evil Geniuses are good and pose an upset risk. It’s difficult to turn down +214 with a good team but Cloud 9 really are in a class of their own atop the LCS. I’m not getting in their way. If this line was higher I’d look to Evil Geniuses kill spreads but I’ll pass for now.
Counter Logic Gaming -132 vs Team Dignitas +104
Kill Total: 21.5 (over -112 / under -116)
Kill Spread: -3.5 @ -112 / +3.5 @ -116
Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 9.5
Time Total: OTB
CLG looked quite a bit better against Golden Guardians but I still don’t trust this team at all. It’d be easy to say Dignitas are probably better than they’ve looked so far but they just look really slow. I’d anticipate some improvement but I’m in a holding pattern with this team.