Friday, June 18th Recap
I’ll be traveling this weekend so detailed recaps will have to wait until I get time. Will still post results here and in the spreadsheet.
Royal Never Give Up vs OMG (Net: +4.7225 units)
UltraPrime vs Suning (Net: -1.44 units)
Hanwha Life vs Liiv Sandbox (Net: +3.3725 units)
Gen.G vs Nongshim (Net: +0.25 units)
SK Gaming vs Schalke 04 (Net: -1.11 units)
MAD Lions vs Excel (Net: -2.4 units)
Rogue vs Misfits (Net: -1.0 units)
Team Vitality vs Fnatic (no action)
G2 Esports vs Astralis (Net: -1.28 units)
Cloud 9 vs Evil Geniuses (Net: +1.26 units)
FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (no action)
Immortals vs Team Solo Mid (Net: +0.26 units)
Dignitas vs Golden Guardians (no action)
100 Thieves vs CLG (no action)
LPL Net Total: +3.2825 units
LCK Net Total: +3.6225 units
LEC Net Total: -5.79 units
LCS Net Total: +1.52 units
Daily Net Total: +2.635 units
LPL Summer 2021
Week Two – Day Six
RareAtom -1667 (-1.5 maps @ -270)
Victory Five +789 (+1.5 maps @ +201)
Map Moneyline: RA -909 / V5 +529
Kill Total: 25.5 (over -105 / under -122)
Kill Spread: -9.5 @ -114 / +9.5 @ -114
Team Kill Totals: 17.5 / 7.5
Time Total: 28:00 (over -112 / under -116)
Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -180 / +140 (map), -227 / +176 (series), +146 / -191 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)
Model Suggested Play: Victory Five all ways (+1.5 maps strongest)
RA – Cube, Leyan, FoFo, iBoy, Hang
V5 – Invincible, Pzx, uniboy, Kepler, ZYF
This LPL slate is three extremely heavy favorites. As usual ,the prices are way out of line so I’m very likely just going to be on all the dogs.
Victory Five have looked terrible. It’s a handful of brand new players thrown to the wolves but they kept their first game against Team WE competitive and getting smoked by LNG is no longer looking like a series that they should have been competitive in with the way LNG are playing right now.
RareAtom are a consistent team but as we’ve seen, even good teams have struggled mightily on this patch game-to-game. There is just too much volatility as we’ve discussed. Hold your nose and back Victory Five here.
The other play I like is actually the time total over. Again, I haven’t played many derivatives so far this season unless there is something that really stands out as I prefer to wait for data to come in. This market is being warped too severely by what we’ve seen so far. RareAtom play uptempo but frequently take their time and are very thorough in trying to close out “properly.” This is a very short time for a team that plays that way.
Time Total: Map 1 OVER 28:00 @ -112 (1.12 units)
Time Total: Map 2 OVER 29:00 @ +108 (1 unit)
Map Spread: V5 +1.5 maps @ +201 (1 unit)
Moneyline: V5 +789 (0.25 units)
Map Spread: V5 -1.5 maps @ +2000 (0.1 units)
EDG -5000 (-1.5 maps @ -500)
Rogue Warriors +1355 (+1.5 maps @ +335, -1.5 @ +3600)
Map Moneyline: EDG -3333 / RW +973
Kill Total: 23.5 (over -122 / under -106)
Kill Spread: -9.5 @ -122 / +9.5 @ -105
Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 6.5
Time Total: 29:00 (over +138 / under -182)
Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -621 / +393 (map), -1788 / +880 (series), -256 / +191 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)
Model Suggested Play: Rogue Warriors +1.5 maps
EDG – Flandre, Jiejie, Scout, Viper, Meiko
RW – 8917, icecoKe, Forge, Betty, Kaixuan
There’s a lot of things wrong with Rogue Warriors in general but I really just haven’t been impressed with Kaixuan at all… like ever. QiuQiu didn’t have a bad series the last time out either so I don’t really get what’s going on here. He’s clearly a better option. Anyway…
We have a whole host of options for this one primarily in the derivatives markets. All of the first neutral objectives are egregiously highly priced. It’s very frequent to trade herald for dragon, every so often it’s a sweep but more often than not it’s a trade. Rogue Warriors have actually had a 66.66% first herald rate for the 2021 calendar year, albeit most of that with Haro. I think this is just a clear play at the absurd price of +251. EDG aren’t even really a herald team with a 46.3% first herald rate for 2021. This is about the biggest edge I’ve seen in any market all season long. First dragon and the neutral overs are decent looks as well.
I won’t be playing the full spectrum underdog special but I’ll be taking map moneylines for RW instead as it’s a much better value. I’ll also be taking that herald prop and the time total over. EDG are also a team that tend to be on the more thorough side in closing games out.
Map Moneyline: Map 1 Rogue Warriors +973 (0.5 units)
Map Moneyline: Map 2 Rogue Warriors +867 (0.5 units)
Prop: Map 1 Rogue Warriors first herald @ +251 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 2 Rogue Warriors first herald @ +191 (1 unit)
Time Total: Map 1 OVER 29:00 @ +138 (1 unit)
Time Total: Map 2 OVER 29:00 @ +138 (1 unit)
ThunderTalk (TT) +841 (+1.5 maps @ +221, -1.5 @ +2200)
FunPlus Phoenix -2000 (-1.5 maps @ -294)
Map Moneyline: TT +655 / FPX -1250
Kill Total: 26.5 (over -116 / under -112)
Kill Spread: +10.5 @ -109 / -10.5 @ -119
Team Kill Totals: 7.5 / 18.5
Time Total: 29:00 (over +131 / under -172)
Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: +237 / -323 (map), +388 / -588 (series), +104 / -131 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)
Model Suggested Play: TT +1.5 maps, TT map moneylines
TT – Langx, Xiaopeng, Ye, SamD, Patch
FPX – Nuguri, Tian, Doinb, Lwx, Crisp
I actually think TT are the most live underdog on this slate tomorrow morning but the caveat here is that FPX are coming off of a frustrating loss and could just go full FU mode here. Nuguri had maybe the worst series I’ve seen him have since Spring 2020, don’t expect that to happen often.
Keep in mind that TT have faced a brutal schedule of TOP, WE, and JDG so far. They’re in the thick of their schedule and have actually been competitive to open a few of these games. Generally TT are still a team that can jump out to early leads on people so never really rule them out for upset snowball wins where they look sharp but more often than not good teams can stabilize and wait for them to make a mistake closing.
The thing with FPX is that they usually just obliterate the bad teams. We saw what they did earlier this season to Rogue Warriors with that sub 40 minute SERIES win and multiple times last season they did something similar. I really wanted to take the time total over here but I think the best play on the board is actually the first herald for TT (TT 60.53% on season, FPX 53.33%) or to take the under tower total (both teams combining for over 12.5 towers in about 15% of games). TT first dragon is also an advantaged play (55.26% for TT, 41.67% for FPX on season).
I’m going to go with the tower unders to win one unit and each TT first herald for a half unit each.
Map Moneyline: Map 1 TT +646 (0.5 units)
Map Moneyline: Map 2 TT +655 (0.5 units)
Map Spread: TT -1.5 maps @ +2200 (0.1 units)
Prop: Map 1 TT first herald @ +152 (0.5 units)
Prop: Map 2 TT first herald @ +152 (0.5 units)
Prop: Map 2 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -250 (2.5 units)
(first and second game huge price difference for tower under, skip game one)
LCK Summer 2021
Week Two – Day Four
DAMWON Kia Gaming -769 (-1.5 maps @ -156)
DRX +466 (+1.5 maps @ +122, -1.5 @ +1400)
Map Moneyline: DWG -476 / DRX +327
Kill Total: 22.5 (over -115 / under -112)
Kill Spread: -7.5 @ -116 / +7.5 @ -112
Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 6.5
Time Total: 30:00 (over -182 / under +139)
Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -610 / +397 (map), -2027 / +821 (series), -253 / +192 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)
Model Suggested Play: DAMWON -1.5 maps
DAMWON played without Ghost in their last match against Afreeca and had all sorts of role swap shenanigans and still stomped the series. It’s not really a confidence booster in the sense that “omg they still won while doing that” because ultimately good players are just good players but it was relieving to me to see this team unwind for a change. Kkoma team historically are very rigid. It’s their greatest strength but every so often it’s a weakness. Seeing DAMWON (and Kkoma) have a “for fun” game was a sight especially because it was beginning to feel like some frustration was building up. That said, there are still questions here. Do I think they’ll do the same thing again? Probably not but maybe it was the wake up call the bottom lane needed. Personally I’ve felt that BeryL has been the bigger problem than Ghost but maybe a couple days off will help who knows.
Speaking of rigid… DRX are simply not adapting to the current trends in the game. They’re still playing the same way they did last split and I think trying to let your opponents beat themselves is generally a terrible way to play the game especially in volatile metagames with really snowbally champions like we have currently. I just don’t think they’re well equipped for what’s good right now.
I actually thought I would be clashing with my model on this one and was going to “gut” handicap a DAMWON obliteration which was my pick of the week on the podcast this week but the model surprisingly agrees with me.
Map Spread: DAMWON -1.5 maps @ -156 (3.12 units)
Afreeca Freecs +100 (+1.5 maps @ -323, -1.5 @ +282)
KT Rolster -128 (-1.5 maps @ +235, +1.5 @ -400)
Map Moneyline: AF -105 / KT -120
Kill Total: 23.5 (over -112 / under -115)
Kill Spread: +0.5 @ -110 / -0.5 @ -118
Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 11.5
Time Total: 33:00 (over -120 / under -108)
Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -249 / +190 (map), -387 / +275 (series), -129 / +100 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)
Model Suggested Play: Afreeca series moneyline
So the model likes Afreeca because it always does and is still using priors this early in the season. This has to be a more “art” than science handicap.
The new look KT Rolster looks outstanding and they’ve had a few great series against very strong teams in a 1-2 loss to Gen.G and a dominant 2-0 sweep of DAMWON Gaming. They also played to a 1-2 slugfest loss to Nongshim who also look improved. I really like the … I guess moxie is the term I’d use. Other than a few specific situations late in game three against Gen.G, KT Rolster look extremely confident and decisive which is exactly what you need especially in a metagame like this where you can’t just sit back and scale. You need to be confident to play melee carries and assassins or you’re just dead in the water. You cannot hesitate. Noah and Harp are developing into one hell of a bottom lane too.
Afreeca have taken some steps forward in that they’ve figured out some of their mid-to-late game transition issues from a macro perspective. This was their biggest problem last split. In fact it was such a problem that they graded as one of the top five teams in the league for a good chunk of the season despite finishing where they did. They continuously shot themselves in the foot just like Sandbox did who had a similar profile. Afreeca haven’t been as flashy but they’ve been much improved.
I think this series is going to be explosive. Afreeca generally like playing for early prio and blowing a game open through leverage plays early in the game. KT Rolster have been doing something similar with this new roster in the Summer split. I get the feeling we’re going to see very lopsided games here just based on the styles we see from both of these teams. KT have had slightly better form recently but I do think Afreeca have a better overall roster so I can’t help but want to play them here, especially coming off of that “embarrassing,” if you want to call it that, loss to DAMWON. They’ll be pissed and looking to make a statement here.
Time Total: Map 1 UNDER 33:00 @ -108 (1.08 units)
Time Total: Map 2 UNDER 33:00 @ -108 (1.08 units)
Moneyline: Afreeca +100 (1 unit)
Map Spread: Afreeca -1.5 maps @ +282 (0.5 units)
LEC Summer 2021
Week Two – Day Two
Team Vitality -303 vs SK Gaming +202
Kill Total: 26.5 (over -109 / under -119)
Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -127 / +5.5 @ -108
Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 10.5
Time Total: 32:00 (over -108 / under -134) (Pinnacle)
Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -110 / -116
Model Suggested Play: SK Gaming moneyline
Again, with a limited Summer sample we’re still working primarily with priors. These teams have also had a lot of roster turnover so we’re more or less throwing this out the window.
SK have looked like the worst team in the league but quite frankly, Vitality haven’t been particularly good outside of their opening two games. This feels like a close your eyes and take SK Gaming situation. I mentioned before the season started that if Vitality had a rough start that there was a very strong chance that this would go south quickly just based on the personalities on this team. I’m not saying that’ll guaranteed happen in this instance or at this time or anything like that but what I’m getting at is that Vitality shouldn’t be -300 against anybody in the league, at least not yet, and this is that simple. The entire LEC is too competent for a non-elite team to be favored by -300 over anyone I’m aware that these teams have faced the opposite schedule difficulty as well but there’s just too many questions on the Vitality side of things for me to justify this number.
I was hoping for a higher kill spread but I’m going to opt to play the SK moneyline.
Moneyline: SK Gaming +202 (1 unit)
Misfits -227 vs Astralis +174
Kill Total: 25.5 (over -122 / under -106)
Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -114 / +5.5 @ -118
Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 10.5
Time Total: 32:00 (over -124 / under -116) (Pinnacle)
Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -452 / +316
Model Suggested Play: Misfits moneyline
Astralis tried out the bottom lane Karthus against G2 yesterday and kept things close against G2 but just couldn’t get home with it. For those that don’t know, yes, this is actually a thing. There’s a respected one trick that got to 600+lp challenger playing only bottom lane Karthus and it turned people on to the idea. It’s surprisingly good.
This is a tricky handicap because Astralis have looked pretty good even if they beat “weaker teams” and lost to good teams in MAD/G2. They were very competitive in the G2 game yesterday. It’s hard to gauge this team. I think they’re probably better than most people thought going into the season but I’m not entirely sure just how good they actually are. Misfits I know are at least pretty good and have taken the steps forward that I was looking for in my bull case thesis but I don’t think I can really justify a position in this one.
Schalke 04 +180 vs MAD Lions -238
Kill Total: 26.5 (over -119 / under -109)
Kill Spread: +6.5 @ -119 / -6.5 @ -114
Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 15.5
Time Total: 32:00 (over -109 / under -132) (Pinnacle)
Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: +192 / -255
Model Suggested Play: none
I’ve liked Schalke’s read on the game in terms of what they’re prioritizing and how they’re playing out drafts. The play itself hasn’t been spectacular or anything but they’re setting themselves up for success which is good. However, I cannot say the same thing about the MAD Lions who have had a couple of very questionable drafts even through the first four games. Obviously you don’t want to overanalyze hypothetical situations like this off of four games but after exploding out of the gate, MAD Lions have looked a little “off” in terms of ideological approach and execution in their games.
I actually think Schalke are worth a play here. I’m also taking the kill total under which is always risky in MAD Lions games but generally speaking unders have performed well across the board in the LEC because the pre-game totals markets are still very very high. The MAD Lions team total under is actually not a bad look either but I’m going to take the full game.
Kill Spread: Schalke +6.5 kills @ -119 (1.19 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 26.5 @ -109 (1.09 units)
Fnatic -250 vs Excel Esports +191
Kill Total: 26.5 (over -116 / under -112)
Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -127 / +5.5 @ -108
Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 10.5
Time Total: 32:00 (over +128 / under -171) (Pinnacle)
Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -187 / +146
Model Suggested Play: Excel moneyline
This Excel team is a good lesson in not overreacting to the optics of a small sample size. Excel “looked” bad in week one with lopsided losses to Rogue and Astralis but finished the week off with a decisive win against Schalke and then managed to punish some greedy mistakes by MAD Lions yesterday in what was a relatively competitive game (although they should have lost and it was a weird MAD draft). Don’t pass your hard judgment until you have enough of a sample to be more confident in it.
I’ve been saying since day one that Fnatic’s opening scripts look significantly more structured and organized now which was the main contributing factor to their inconsistency last season. This team is stacked with talent top to bottom and Bwipo is only going to continue improving in the jungle as well. My bull case thesis on Fnatic has more or less come to fruition already so I’m optimistic about them moving forward.
I’m not making a side play on this game although I’d lean toward Fnatic however I am going to play neutral objective unders. The most likely outcome when projecting this game is a snowball Fnatic victory and Excel’s openings have not been strong so I think a play on the neutral objective unders is the way to attack this. The most value I see on the board is the under 4.5 dragons and 11.5 towers (roughly same) followed by the under 1.5 barons. I’ll opt for the under 11.5 towers.
Prop: UNDER 11.5 towers @ +126 (1 unit)
Rogue -123 vs G2 Esports -102
Kill Total: 27.5 (over -104 / under -125)
Kill Spread: +0.5 @ -114 / -0.5 @ -118
Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 13.5
Time Total: 32:00 (over -145 / under +109) (Pinnacle)
Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -186 / +146
Model Suggested Play: Rogue moneyline
Every single time I think “G2 are back” there’s a weird hiccup game. Astralis legitimately had a good chance of beating them yesterday and while I don’t want to look into a small four game sample that much it’s tough to really say with any sort of confidence how much of their former glory the Kings of Europe have recaptured thus far.
Rogue have had some hiccup games themselves and while I appreciate the experimenting and aggressive, proactive game planning that they’ve showed in drafts so far this season, there have also been a handful of head scratching moments when it comes to in-game, execution.
I can’t get a strong read on either of these teams right now. The only thing I’m confident about is that they’re both very good it’s just a matter of where exactly along their individual spectrums that they fall at the moment and it’s tough to pin that down. I’ll be passing but there’s a pretty reasonable case to be made for both sides here. Quantitatively Rogue are the play here and it’s not close. Qualitatively you could look at things like G2’s dominance of this head-to-head over past 18 months but you could also bring up the playoff series that Rogue smashed in as the most recent data point.
Given that I don’t have a strong read on how I think this will play out I’m just passing this game altogether. If I had to take a position it’d probably be something like over 4.5 dragons or over 11.5 towers but this could just as easily be lopsided one way or the other.
LCS Summer 2021
Week Three – Day Two
Cloud 9 -303 vs Immortals +227
Kill Total: 23.5 (over -122 / under -106)
Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -123 / +6.5 @ -105
Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 8.5
Time Total: 30:00 (over -147 / under +113)
Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -354 / +260
Model Suggested Play: none
Immortals lost that absolute circus of a base race game against TSM yesterday and Cloud 9 got routed by Evil Geniuses so both teams enter this contest coming off of weird ones. I’ve been favoring the underdogs on this current patches (11.11 and 11.12) due to general volatility in the game. In the case of Cloud 9, they’re also looked less convincing as they begin to incorporate K1ng into the lineup and the bottom lane has struggled to maintain priority in a number of instances allowing other teams to focus mid and snowball that into dragons. I’m not sure if it’s the combination of the MSI hangover AND the change to K1ng or if Cloud 9 were just playing at the top of their range of outcomes at the end of Spring and at MSI, but as the kids say “this ain’t it.”
Immortals is the play here. They’ve been good this season and look much better than they did in Spring. The slow and steady upward trajectory that I’d anticipated seems to be on schedule. The model number as well as the book number heavily incorporates priors and at those numbers this was roughly accurate price. Given Immortals improvements and Cloud 9’s current form, even in wins, I think it’s worth a shot on the dogs here. Keep in mind that Immortals have also faced TSM, Liquid, and Evil Geniuses in three of their past four matches and have been competitive against all three (although they got smashed by Dignitas).
General volatility, Immortals mostly looking good, and Cloud 9 looking less dominant, adds up to a nice dog play here. I was hoping we’d get plus money on Immortals first dragon as well. If you see that get all over it.
Moneyline: Immortals +227 (1 unit)
Counter Logic Gaming +125 vs Evil Geniuses -159
Kill Total: 25.5 (over -122 / under -105)
Kill Spread: +4.5 @ -116 / -4.5 @ -112
Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 11.5
Time Total: 32:00 (over -164 / under +126)
Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: +202 / -266
Model Suggested Play: Evil Geniuses moneyline
OK this is a weird one… So Evil Geniuses looked very good and the current metagame suits their players well. Then you’ve got CLG who were looking like they were spiraling downward and just spiked a 21-0 near perfect game win against 100 Thieves yesterday. Now, keep in mind that that game, as bad as it looked, was more or less even for the first fifteen minutes so it’s not like one of these LPL style 20 minute stompings. CLG were just exceptionally clean.
There has been a lot of rumors coming out surrounding both the CLG (and 100 Thieves) camps, more on that later but I don’t want to overanalyze a single weird game like this.
CLG have been disjointed at times and overall have not looked like a collection of solid veterans like you’d expect from… a collection of solid veterans. I’m not entirely buying this although it’s hard to deny that this could be a confidence booster, a “get off the schneid” kind of win that and break a team out of a funk. My concern is that it won’t solve systemic issues that they seem to have.
I never like backing Evil Geniuses as favorites but this honestly looks like a slam dunk spot to me even with CLG’s insane game against the team that’s looked the best in Summer in 100 Thieves. There’s some drama behind the scenes that maybe played into that game but we’ll get to that. I’m hammering Evil Geniuses here. I just think the state of the game currently is absolutely perfect for how they like to play, champion pools of the players, and everyone else seems to be lost and floudering in regards to those aspects of the game currently. This is about the best we’ll ever see this EG team I want to take advantage of it while we still can. (watch them lose to GGS tomorrow…)
Moneyline: Evil Geniuses -159 (3.18 units)
Team Solo Mid -256 vs Dignitas +193
Kill Total: 25.5 (over -109 / under -119)
Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -115 / +6.5 @ -112
Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 9.5
Time Total: 32:00 (over +118 / under -154)
Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -136 / +106
Model Suggested Play: Dignitas moneyline
Ooof… Dignitas lost a bit of a slobberknocker against Golden Guardians yesterday and I can’t help but think this was just a rage-filled outburst from Dardoch who unfortunately has a history of this sort of thing. As much as people are memeing on this situation and talking about his “toxic history” and all that, the fact remains that he is, in my opinion, the best player on this team and the main catalyst for their success. I’m not excusing any alleged behavior at all but this not only isn’t a good look for the team, but can really disrupt the flow. It sucks seeing the full North American team struggling like this but it is what it is. Akaadian is a journeyman, he’ll step in and be fine but Dardoch is difficult to replace in-game.
Even for someone that was fairly bullish on Dignitas I did expect a small amount of regression as they were playing way better than I’d ever imagined that they would in Spring so I’m not at all surprised at the losses but I am surprised at the overall form and performance.
I haven’t backed a ton of favorites in these early weeks and the ones that I’ve chosen to have failed to deliver very often but this feels like a complete smash spot for TSM given the circumstances and short notice. You could look at yesterday’s game against Immortals and hold against them that they should have lost but we’ve seen now that Immortals are a competitive team and it’s not like there’s any real shame in losing to them in a given game.
I’m taking TSM and laying the chalk here. I know the metagame is volatile and that’s scary to some extent. I rarely go this heavy on a best of one, frequently preach against overreacting to these sorts of situations, and it’s generally breaking one of my “rules” but the circumstances here make this a rather unique situation. If Akaadian steps in and that remedies a lot of problems then so be it but I don’t think that’s going to be the situation here at all.
Moneyline: TSM -256 (2.56 units)
Kill Spread (alt): TSM -8.5 @ +137 (0.5 units)
Kill Total (alt): UNDER 23.5 @ +117 (1 unit)
100 Thieves -370 vs FlyQuest +265
Kill Total: 23.5 (over -105 / under -123)
Kill Spread: -7.5 @ -102 / +7.5 @ -127
Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 8.5
Time Total: 32:00 (over -111 / under -118)
Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -535 / +357
Model Suggested Play: 100 Thieves moneyline
I swear the LCS is like a high school cafeteria sometimes. You hear week-to-week “oh Team XYZ is fighting internally” and the like way too often and while I typically tend to write it off as young kids being young kids, animosity can build up and when it begins manifesting I tend to pay closer attention to it. I don’t want to overreact to yesterday’s loss but there’s been some of these types of rumors coming from the 100 Thieves camp and after getting completely destroyed by CLG, another team with supposed internal issues, you have to ask questions.
I don’t want to make this a gossip column and frankly I don’t want to handicap these games with much of this in mind it’s just interesting to consider.
The model likes 100 Thieves moneyline here basically suggesting that this isn’t a big enough number on them but again, given the volatility we’ve seen this season with the metagame in general I’m going to be less inclined to take these big favorites like this, particularly in best-of-ones. I need a damn good reason to back a heavy favorite right now and I absolutely have no reason to back 100 Thieves here. Whether or not to back FlyQuest becomes the question. I haven’t been a believer in this team whatsoever but we’ve seen them pilot the power picks to wins this season and in a single game like this we’ve seen nobody is safe this season.
Hold your nose and back FlyQuest. I would have said this even without all this drama going on. There’s a chance that all of that stuff doesn’t matter and 100T just have better players across the board and smash this match anyway but they shouldn’t be favored by this much in the current state of things.
Kill Spread: FlyQuest +7.5 kills @ -127 (1.27 units)
Moneyline: FlyQuest +265 (0.5 units)
Golden Guardians +364 vs Team Liquid -556
Kill Total: 23.5 (over -110 / under -118)
Kill Spread: +9.5 @ -118 / -9.5 @ -110
Team Kill Totals: 6.5 / 15.5
Time Total: 30:00 (over -145 / under +111)
Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -754 / +455
Model Suggested Play: none (negligable edge for TL moneyline)
Liquid appear to slowly be playing themselves into form and Jenkins improves with each game. They’re nowhere near their Spring performance level but I do think they’re probably one of the best teams in the league right now despite being poorly positioned from a metagame perspective.
Golden Guardians are showing improvement here and there but I really think this is more a symptom of the patches being highly volatile and the good teams mostly not showing a strong grasp on that allows them to be blown out in draft and creates this bizarre games that we’ve seen so many of already.
This is a hold your nose and back the dog situation. The model likes Liquid primarily based on priors. Golden Guardians are better, albeit not much, and Liquid are good but not quite as dominant as the Spring verison was. Bake in some volatility from the current state of things (tired of me saying this yet?) and I think you just need to back the dogs or pass this one.
Kill Spread: Golden Guardians +9.5 kills @ -118 (1.18 units)
Moneyline: Golden Guardians +364 (0.5 units)
Prop: Golden Guardians first dragon @ +200 (1 unit)
I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.
Check out The Gold Card Podcast and can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL
(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)