Friday, June 11th Recap

 

BiliBili Gaming vs LNG Esports (Net: no action)

Team WE vs Suning (Net: no action)

Afreeca Freecs vs Fredit Brion (Net: +0.5 units)

T1 vs DAMWON (Net: -1.5 units)

 

MAD Lions vs G2 Esports (Net: no action)

SK Gaming vs Astralis (Net: no action)

Rogue vs Excel (Net: +0 units)

Team Vitality vs Schalke 04 (Net: no action)

Misfits vs Fnatic (Net: +1.07 units)

 

TSM vs 100 Thieves (pending)

Liquid vs Dignitas (pending)

Evil Geniuses vs Immortals (pending)

Golden Guardians vs CLG (pending)

FlyQuest vs Cloud 9 (pending)

 

LPL Total: no action

LCK Total: -1.0 units

LEC Total: +1.07 units

LCS Total: pending

 

Daily Net Total: pending

 


 

LPL Summer 2021

Week One – Day Six

 

 

JD Gaming +183 (+1.5 maps @ -213, -1.5 @ +507)

vs

TOP Esports -238 (-1.5 maps @ +162, +1.5 @ -833)

 

Map Moneyline: JDG +145 / TOP -189

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -122 / under -108)

Kill Spread: +4.5 @ -111 / -4.5 @ -116

Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 14.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over +125 / under -164)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  +130 / -169 (map), +159 / -205 (series), -208 / +158 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: none

Starters:

JDG – Zoom, Kanavi, Yagao, Loken, LvMao

TOP – Qingtian, Karsa, Knight, JackeyLove, Zhuo

Qingtian will be getting his first start in the LPL with TOP Esports here in place of 369. This was a bit of a weird move and was talked about quite a bit during the offseason. 369 had a great season by most measures and my individual player model had him graded as the #3 top laner behind Nuguri and Zoom. It’ll be interesting to see the complexion of TOP Esports with the new player. Part of what made 369 was his versatility. He was potent as a carry but also excellent on role playing champions. Big shoes to fill and up against a difficult challenge right off the bat in Zoom. Whether or not this is temporary is another question but we’ll cross that bridge when we get there.

If you strictly use the data we have so far this is a firm “no play” spot. I don’t want to make a play on JDG just because of the new substitution even though this feels like a slam dunk JDG spot. TOP Esports could just as easily have something wild up their sleeve with Qingtian. Or he could be a rookie that struggles against one of the league’s best. I’d lean toward JDG here but I’m going to just pass as I don’t think this is a particularly great value. It’s not like TOP haven’t been practicing with him most of the offseason either so don’t expect this to be a drastic lack of cohesion or anything of the sort. The bottom trio is still stronger for TOP, Karsa should thrive in a metagame like this, and who knows, maybe the lack of film on the new kid is a boost.

 

My Picks:

 

no wagers (lean JDG)

 


 

Invictus Gaming +162 (+1.5 maps @ -189, -1.5 @ +330)

vs

EDward Gaming -208 (-1.5 maps @ +145)

 

Map Moneyline: EDG -192 / IG +148

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -120 / under -109)

Kill Spread: +6.5 @ -110 / -6.5 @ -119

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 14.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -105 / under -123)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  -132 / +103 (map), -141 / +112 (series), -286 / +212 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: Invictus series moneyline

Starters:

IG – Neny, XUN, Rookie, Wink, Lucas

EDG – Flandre, Jiejie, Scout, Viper, Meiko

 

For those that didn’t check out my pre-season preview, I was rather bullish on the prospects of backing Invictus for a number of reasons. First, it’s a potentially great metagame for them. Second, coaching change should help them out quite a bit. Third, they were strong candidates for positive regression in the economy/objective model where they graded out as the #3 team after Spring split.

EDG are clearly a very good team and their numbers are naturally not going to be as dominant as teams like FPX, TOP, and even Invictus just by the nature of how they play the game (slower, methodical scaling preference). In other words they’re better than their numbers suggest. That said, I do think this metagame could pose some problems for them. It’s not that I think they’re incapable of adaptation, this team has shown us a number of looks over the year so far, they just have a tendency to fall back on comfort even when I don’t think they should which could be a concern moving foward.

I think Invictus is a solid value here. I’m not nearly as bullish on them in this spot as the model which thinks they should be favored but there’s enough things going in favor of IG in this situation that even with the top lane situation in flux I’m willing to back them as underdogs here. EDG were one of the worst performers in adjusted metrics against the top nine teams while Invictus were one of the best which is another pro-Invictus point.

 

My Picks:

 

Map Spread: Invictus +1.5 maps @ -189 (3.78 units)

Moneyline: Invictus +162 (1 unit)

Map Spread: Invictus -1.5 maps @ +443 (0.5 units)

 


 

LCK Summer 2021

Week One – Day Four

 

 

Liiv Sandbox +147 (+1.5 maps @ -208, -1.5 @ +396)

vs

Nongshim RedForce -200 (-1.5 maps @ +161, +1.5 @ -625)

 

Map Moneyline: LSB +131 / NS -169

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -123 / under -105)

Kill Spread: +4.5 @ -109 / -4.5 @ -119

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 13.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -106 / under -122)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  +118 / -151 (map), +133 / -179 (series), -236 / +181 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: none

These are both teams that I was fairly bullish on coming into the season and neither of their first matches were flattering. That doesn’t change my mood on either. If you just take the data from last split this is a fair line. I happen to like the Sandbox roster a little more but I can’t really come up with a strong enough reason to go either way in this contest. Lean LSB as dogs but pass.

 

My Picks:

 

no wagers

 


 

Hanwha Life Esports +200 (+1.5 maps @ -172, -1.5 @ +543)

vs

Gen.G -263 (-1.5 maps @ +134, +1.5 @ -909)

 

Map Moneyline: HLE +172 / GEG -227

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -112 / under -115)

Kill Spread: +5.5 @ -112 / -5.5 @ -116

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 14.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -132 / under +102)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  -101 / -124 (map), +103 / -131 (series), -305 / +228 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: HLE series moneyline

 

After a weird game one Gen.G completely smashed the rest of the series with mostly bread and butter looks. Hanwha stayed competitive in game one before being smashed by T1 in their debut. I do think Gen.G are a better team than the model is giving them credit for and perhaps the more important thing to look at here is performance against the elite teams. Hanwha’s adjusted performance is less than flattering against Gen.G, DAMWON, and T1 over the 2021 season.

I wanted to take a value play on Hanwha Life here as I think this is just a little heavy handed on Gen.G for this early in the season but the more I’ve thought about it and looked at how Hanwha have performed against good teams, the less I like it. Individually I think there are pretty big mismatches in all but the mid lane and I just don’t think Chovy can do it all himself for multiple games consistently enough to carry his team to the finish line no matter how good he is. Hanwha’s performance in the model making this look close is primarily the result of smashing the non-elite teams and I think you need to separate those performances. When you filter that way this is actually a short value on Gen.G which I believe is the more accurate position even early in the season like this.

 

My Picks:

 

Moneyline: Gen.G -263 (2.63 units)

 


 

LEC Summer 2021

Week One – Day Two

 

Astralis +109 vs Excel Esports -139

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -119 / under -110)

Kill Spread: +3.5 @ -106 / -3.3 @ -122

Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 13.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -103 / under -127)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: AST +109 / XL -139

Model Suggested Play: none

 

Astralis won their absolute clown fiesta against SK from down 3000+ gold and Excel had the unfortunate displeasure of being smashed by Rogue. Can’t really take much away from either of these. The model made this line smack dab on the number and I happen to agree. I do like the Excel roster slightly more but not enough to back them here.

I have a feeling this could be another one of those fiesta games and the model flagged both the tower and dragon neutral overs. I haven’t been doing a whole lot of prop bets to open the season as I’ve been waiting to collect more data since this patch is so drastically different but I think the over 11.5 towers is a great play in this spot. I don’t see either of these teams dominating one another and with more towers going down per game across the globe and the prices not reflecting that I think it’s generally a decent play here.

 

My Picks:

Prop: OVER 11.5 towers @ -189 (1.89 units)

 


 

Misfits -233 vs SK Gaming +176

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -115 / under -112)

Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -102 / +6.5 @ -127

Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over +110 / under -143)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: MSF -348 / SK +253

Model Suggested Play: Misfits moneyline

Admittedly, Misfits had no business winning their opening game against a Fnatic team that had amassed a huge lead but they did manage to pull it off. SK should have won their opener but punted against Astralis multiple times.

If you read my pre-season preview for the LEC I’m trending opposite directions on both of these teams. I’m bearish on SK expecting regression for a team who performed significantly worse than their win total and bullish on a Misfits team that I think a lot of factors are beginning to come together for. I called them a sleeping giant. Yesterday wasn’t the start that I’d anticipated but I do think Misfits are two tiers better than SK Gaming and agree with my model that they’re worth a heavy moneyline play here.

My Picks:

Moneyline: Misfits -233 (2.33 units)

Kill Spread: MSF -6.5 kills @ -102 (1.02 units)

 

 


 

Rogue -244 vs Team Vitality +184

 

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -119 / under -109)

Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -111 / +6.5 @ -116

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 8.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over +118 / under -154)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: ROG -665 / VIT +420

Model Suggested Play: Rogue moneyline

Obviously the model is going to like a Rogue play here based on the 2021 full season thus far but Vitality are a completely new team and looked pretty good yesterday. Rogue were their normal selves and just completely choked Excel out of the game before it even started with a massive draft win abusing a full court press concept.

I’m about as bullish a Rogue backer as you’ll find but until we know more I don’t really want to get in the way of this explosive Vitality lineup. My gut tells me Rogue are too disciplined and just handle business here no problem but I don’t want to pay this price with Vitality’s upside. I might look stupid in a couple of weeks for not taking a side on this one but if that’s the case then so be it. Wait and see.

My Picks:

no wagers

 


 

G2 Esports -256 vs Schalke 04 +186

 

Kill Total: 27.5 (over -122 / under -105)

Kill Spread: -7.5 @ -103 / +7.5 @ -125

Team Kill Totals: 17.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over +128 / under -167)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: G2 -133 / S04 +101

Model Suggested Play: Schalke moneyline

I can’t be the only one that found how humble Jankos was in that post-game interview a bit weird. I’m not drawing any conclusions from it but just thought I’d mention it.

G2 looked really sharp against MAD in their opening match and while I like this Schalke lineup quite a bit I’m a little bearish on their overall prospects compared to spring. This is another team that I feel overperformed their expections in regard to performance grade vs actual results but I do think they’re a pretty good team. The model obviously wasn’t a fan of G2’s performance last split and has a significantly shorter price but I’m going to take a bit of a leap of faith and say that G2 should take a noticeable step forward while Schalke might take a small step backward. I’m going to back G2 here.

My Picks:

Moneyline: G2 -256 (2.56 units)

 


  

MAD Lions -227 vs Fnatic +173

 

Kill Total: 28.5 (over -116 / under -112)

Kill Spread: -7.5 @ -114 / +7.5 @ -118

Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 10.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -101 / under -128)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: MAD -262 / FNC +197

Model Suggested Play: none

MAD Lions didn’t look very hungover from MSI at all yesterday against G2 in what was a very high level competitive matchup. Fnatic had an incredible opening twenty minutes before a bizarre throw prior to the first baron by taking an overzealous fight. I thought both of these teams looked great yesterday.

Even if you base this on the full 2021 statistical performance where MAD were, along with Rogue, far and away the top two teams (+1.006 rating) and Fnatic were actually graded as a slightly below average team (-0.109 rating), the model doesn’t like either side. I think Fnatic are going to be an improved team as long as they can show better coordination. Yesterday wasn’t flattering at the point of the throw but the rest of the game looked significantly better from a macro perspective than almost everything they were doing in the Spring split.

I’m going to pass this match but I’d definitely lean toward the Fnatic side if I had to make a selection. I’m going to play the tower total over here as well as I think we’ll get a competitive match with a lot of cross map trading.

My Picks:

Prop: OVER 11.5 towers @ -189 (1.89 units)

 

 

 


 

LCS Summer 2021

Week Two – Day Two

 

 

100 Thieves -526 vs Golden Guardians +355

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -106 / under -122)

Kill Spread: -8.5 @ -104 / +8.5 @ -125

Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 8.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -141 / under +108)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -575 / +380

Model Suggested Play: none

The talent difference here is just immense and I think there’s a reasonable chance that teams start banning Ablazeolive’s Zoe at some point. No plays on the sides in this one. 100 Thieves likely smash this. Admittedly, 100T were not great for tower unders last season even as heavy favorites and they ended up in some real circus games but I’ll be ignoring the numbers and taking the under 12.5 here. Under 4.5 dragons or barons isn’t a bad look either.

My Picks:

Prop: UNDER 12.5 towers @ -208 (2.08 units)

 


FlyQuest +229 vs Team Solo Mid -312

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -112 / under -116)

Kill Spread: +6.5 @ -109 / -6.5 @ -119

Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 14.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -109 / under -119)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: FLY +215 / TSM -290

Model Suggested Play: none

TSM still looked pretty good in a loss against a similarly rated 100 Thieves team. FlyQuest got smashed by Cloud 9 in a perfect game. I said going into yesterday’s match that I really am just not a fan of this FlyQuest lineup at all. They seem to have a weird read on the game right now and haven’t been able to put up any kind of fight against good teams most of the 2021 season. I was hoping we’d see some improvement from them moving into Summer. Obviously it’s still early but I don’t really like what I’ve seen so far.

I’m going against my numbers and backing TSM here. Current forms are just completely on the opposite end of the spectrum for these two.

My Picks:

Moneyline: TSM -312 (3.12 units)

 


 

 

Team Liquid -233 vs Evil Geniuses +179

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -110 / under -118)

Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -120 / +5.5 @ -108

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -114 / under -114)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: TL -187 / EG +146

Model Suggested Play: Evil Geniuses moneyline

These are the types of matches that EG win. All of 2021 I’ve liked Evil Geniuses as a dog against the good teams and disliked them as favorites and that has played out profitably so far. The premise is that EG are just a higher volatility team, like a lesser version of MAD Lions. They’ll beat themselves often which makes them less desirable as heavy favorites against weaker teams but they’re also risk takers and can punch up well enough that they make for a pretty good, and often very cheap underdog.

Liquid looked much better yesterday than they did last week which is a good sign, especially for morale but even if Liquid were in their normal shape I’d be considering this play. Solid value on the underdog. The over isn’t a bad look either considering EG go over the kill total in a majority of their wins but I’ll just stick to the side.

My Picks:

Moneyline: Evil Geniuses +179 (1 unit)

 


 

Cloud 9 -526 vs Counter Logic Gaming +351

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -123 / under -105)

Kill Spread: -9.5 @ -105 / +9.5 @ -123

Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 7.5

Time Total: 30:00 (over -156 / under +120)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: C9 – 380 / CLG +275

Model Suggested Play: Cloud 9 moneyline

Cloud 9 perfect gamed a bad FlyQuest team yesterday. CLG stole one from Golden Guardians who had an infernal soul with their poke composition. This was almost entirely off the back of Gwen although they stayed cool and did what they had to to get back into it. CLG haven’t looked good at all and there is a lot of stuff rumored to be going on behind the scenes as well as I mentioned yesterday.

I was considering the underdog kill spread here but I’m just going to take an alternate way to play the favorites and back the tower under and time total under. I kind of like the CLG firsts, especially dragon, at plus money as well but I really think Cloud 9 are just going to smash so I’m not gonna get cute. Just back the good team.

My Picks:

Time Total: UNDER 30:00 @ +120 (1 unit)

Prop: UNDER 12.5 towers @ -227 (2.27 units)

 

 


 

Immortals -116 vs Dignitas -109

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -112 / under -116)

Kill Spread: +0.5 @ -118 / -0.5 @ -110

Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 12.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -125 / under -104)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: IMT -100 / DIG -126

Model Suggested Play: none

Insanity should be back for Immortals today and we haven’t heard anything to suggest that Yusui won’t be starting for Dignitas. This Yusui/Soligo situation is still really weird to me. Dignitas’ calling card has been chemistry and teamwork and they had a great thing going. I don’t know if this is just rewarding your challenger players which is a good thing to do from time to time to keep morale high but it’s just odd to disrupt the flow. Anyway…

Immortals have looked really good when they’re running the full squad. Their opening weekend was outstanding and I think these two teams are essentially evenly rated. The market agrees. No play.

My Picks:

no wagers

 

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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