Friday, July 2nd Recap

 

LGD Gaming vs Rogue Warriors (no action)

JD Gaming vs UltraPrime (Net: -2.0 units)

Brion vs KT Rolster (Net: +0.5 units)

Nongshim vs DAMWON (Net: -5.0 units)

 

Vitality vs Astralis (Net: +1.44 units)

SK Gaming vs Rogue (Net: +0.391 units)

Misfits vs MAD Lions (Net: -0.911 units)

Schalke vs Fnatic (Net: -2.07 units)

G2 vs Excel (Net: +1.0 units)

 

Liquid vs 100 Thieves (no action)

FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses (Net: +1.0 units)

Dignitas vs TSM (no action)

Immortals vs Cloud 9 (Net: -2.09 units)

CLG vs Golden Guardians (Net: +0.53 units)

 

 

LPL Net Total: -2.0 units

LCK Net Total: -5.45 units

LEC Net Total: -0.15 units

LCS Net Total: -0.56 units

 

Daily Net Total: -8.16 units

 

June 2021 was the single worst month of my betting career and the slump doesn’t appear to be letting up this week either. Brutal.

 

 


 

LPL Summer 2021

Week Four – Day Five

 

 

OMG +201 (+1.5 maps @ -159, -1.5 @ +529)

vs

Team WE -270 (-1.5 maps @ +124, +1.5 @ -909)

 

Map Moneyline: OMG +166 / WE -217

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -109 / under -119)

Kill Spread: +6.5 @ -109 / -6.5 @ -119

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 15.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -116 / under -111)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  +127 / -163 (map), +151 / -197 (series), -216 / +165 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: OMG +1.5 maps and series moneyline

Starters:

OMG – New, AKi, Creme, Able, COLD

WE – Breathe, Beishang, Shanks, Elk, Missing

Trends
WE as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) OMG as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 3 1 -1164 Matches as Underdogs 2 2 +501
Against Map Spread 2 2 -36 Against Map Spread 2 2 +58
Against Kill Spread 6 4 7.3 Against Kill Spread 7 3 +8
Kill Totals 5 5 25.00 Kill Totals 5 5 24.75
Team Kill Totals 4 6 15.50 Team Kill Totals 6 4 8.75
Game Time Totals 6 4 31.0 Game Time Totals 7 3 30.00
Dragons over 4.5 5 5 Dragons over 4.5 5 5
Towers over 11.5 5 5 Towers over 11.5 4 6

 

League Rank WE Tale of the Tape OMG League Rank
15 -592.1 Gold Diff @ 10 min 142.4 6
7 25.8 Gold Diff @ 15 min 88.4 6
10 -1200.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min 675.0 7
18.1 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -29.3
8 25.3 Gold Diff / min first 20 -9.6 13
11 257.1 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -35.2 15
6 1802.3 Gold /min (GPM) 1751.9 13
23.5 Gold / min vs Avg -26.9
5 65.5 Gold Diff / min -35.2 11
5 1.0 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -0.5 11
10 1595.3 Kill Agnostic GPM 1557.1 13
6 34.2 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -65.4 13
12 1916.3 GPM in wins 1870.4 17
6 329.0 Gold Diff per min in wins 216.3 17
8 1631.2 GPM in losses 1593.9 14
11 -329.9 Gold Diff per min in losses -370.6 15
75.2 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -25.5
12 -28.8 Win-Adjusted GPM -74.7 17
6 8.3 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -104.4 17
8 49.3 Dragon Control % 47.5 10
6 53.3 Herald Control % 48.1 9
3 64.3 Baron Control % 50.0 10
5.0 Quality Wins? 3.0
55.6 % of wins as Quality 37.5

 

 (These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 34.692%
2 1 28.517%
1 2 19.899%
0 2 16.892%
(Series Win): 63.209%

OMG have been surprising a lot of people and this team is very clearly improved mostly off the back of dynamo mid laner Creme but the proof is in the numbers here. Last in GPM in wins, last in GDPM in wins, 13th in kill agnostic economy and differential and when they lose, they lose ugly with toward the bottom of the table numbers as well. OMG rely very heavily on getting ahead early and snowballing that advantage and specifically they rely on individual outplays to get it done. Long term this isn’t a winning strategy and they’re going to struggle with consistency on a game-to-game basis but if a meta is going to allow this to succeed it’s this one so it’s a tricky balancing act.

Team WE have cooled off a bit with a few bizarre series but their last one was a breath of fresh air. Seeing them keep their heads in it after a rough game one loss to smash the next two was a relief as that had been something they’d struggled with for awhile. We’re getting Shanks again in this one and he actually showed a pretty wicked Leblanc in their last outing which was nice to see from a guy who’s typically known as a control mage player.

I made this my pick of the week on The Gold Card Podcast this week because I think WE are probably a little better than their recent form and that OMG probably aren’t going to be able to continue stealing games like they have been and are due for some regression when it comes to results. Their performance measures strongly suggest this.

There is a pretty huge edge on market price for OMG first blood but that’s a very volatile market so I’m just going to keep this simple and back the favorites.

 

My Picks:

Moneyline: Team WE -270 (5.4 units)

Map Spread: Team WE -1.5 maps @ +124 (1 unit)

 


 

RareAtom +126 (+1.5 maps @ -250, -1.5 @ +361)

vs

LNG Esports -161 (-1.5 maps @ +188, +1.5 @ -526)

 

Map Moneyline: RA +115 / LNG -147

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -112 / under -115)

Kill Spread: +4.5 @ -119 / -4.5 @ -109

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 14.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -145 / under +112)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  -105 / -121 (map), -101 / -125 (series), -322 / +235 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: RA moneyline

Starters:

RA – Cube, Leyan, FoFo, iBoy, Hang

LNG – Ale, Tarzan, Icon, Light, Iwandy

Trends
LNG as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) RA as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 3 0 -1021 Matches as Underdogs 2 1 +157
Against Map Spread 2 1 -86 Against Map Spread 2 1 -219
Against Kill Spread 5 2 7.2 Against Kill Spread 3 5 +5
Kill Totals 3 4 24.83 Kill Totals 2 6 25.50
Team Kill Totals 3 4 16.17 Team Kill Totals 4 4 10.83
Game Time Totals 4 3 30.7 Game Time Totals 3 5 31.33
Dragons over 4.5 2 5 Dragons over 4.5 3 5
Towers over 11.5 3 4 Towers over 11.5 1 7

 

 

League Rank LNG Tale of the Tape RA League Rank
7 61.5 Gold Diff @ 10 min 1524.6 2
3 479.9 Gold Diff @ 15 min 440.6 4
4 725.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min 118.7 3
28.4 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 20.4
5 85.6 Gold Diff / min first 20 61.7 7
1 591.8 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 282.1 9
3 1875.9 Gold /min (GPM) 1777.0 11
97.1 Gold / min vs Avg -1.8
3 220.8 Gold Diff / min 64.5 6
3 3.1 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 0.9 6
3 1635.1 Kill Agnostic GPM 1599.2 8
3 92.0 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 49.2 5
9 1941.8 GPM in wins 1888.6 16
5 347.0 Gold Diff per min in wins 270.1 15
6 1645.2 GPM in losses 1553.8 15
3 -221.0 Gold Diff per min in losses -346.8 13
230.5 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 74.2
9 -3.3 Win-Adjusted GPM -56.4 16
5 26.3 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -50.6 15
6 52.5 Dragon Control % 56.5 4
4 55.6 Herald Control % 65.5 2
4 62.5 Baron Control % 47.1 11
10.0 Quality Wins? 2.0
71.4 % of wins as Quality 20.0

 (These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 26.789%
2 1 25.847%
1 2 24.091%
0 2 23.273%
(Series Win): 52.636%

I keep thinking this LNG team is going to come back to earth and we’ve seen some signs of it with the near loss to ThunderTalk in their second most recent series but generally speaking this team has been absolutely nails. Across the board they’re putting up excellent performance metrics unlike some of the other teams that have been surprises this Summer season. They’re a perfect blend of well-suited to this type of game and elevated overall performance across the board. LNG have been legitimately good but, call it a gut feeling or whatever, something tells me that they’re going to be figured out with more people now paying attention to them. That doesn’t mean that I think they’re going to completely 180 and plummet down the standings but perhaps this team isn’t quite as dominant as the record and performance they’ve put up so far. Let’s just say I’ll be impressed if they can sustain this level.

RareAtom have been quietly grinding away as they do with their trademark ugly wins. They probably should have lost the series to TOP Esports but managed to get it done on a Ryze backdoor, they beat Team WE, LGD, and OMG for notable victories with their only loss coming at the hands of #1 EDG. RareAtom have the performance metric profile of a team that’s due for some regression and while I think they stole one against TOP, they’re largely been in control in all of their wins just not by drastic amounts so this isn’t a team that’s ever going to jump off the page at you. They remind me a lot of EDG last season in that they aren’t this performance metric powerhouse but they just win games.

The model makes this a fairly close series and shows a small edge on the market price for RareAtom. I’m going to back the underdogs here. I think this series is roughly a coinflip. RareAtom can perform better than this (they did last season) and LNG are going to have a tough time sustaining this level through adjustments from other teams and RareAtom are one of the few LPL teams that will actually adjust moment to moment for their opponents instead of staying in their own echo chamber. Coinflip, take the dog.

My Picks:

Moneyline: RareAtom +126 (1 unit)

Map Spread: RareAtom -1.5 maps @ +361 (0.25 units)

 


 

FunPlus Phoenix -625 (-1.5 maps @ -154, +1.5 @ -3333)

vs

Invictus Gaming +414 (+1.5 maps @ +120, -1.5 @ +1062)

 

Map Moneyline: FPX -385 / IG +280

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -109 / under -120)

Kill Spread: -8.5 @ -105 / +8.5 @ -123

Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 8.5

Time Total: 30:00 (over -109 / under -119)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  -269 / +205 (map), -435 / +311 (series), -109 / -117 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: Invictus +1.5 maps

Starters:

FPX – Nuguri, Tian, Doinb, Lwx, Crisp

IG – Neny, XUN, Rookie, Wink, Lucas

Trends
FPX as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) IG as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 5 1 -1659 Matches as Underdogs 1 3 +143
Against Map Spread 4 2 -102 Against Map Spread 1 3 -217
Against Kill Spread 6 9 8.3 Against Kill Spread 4 5 +5
Kill Totals 11 4 26.00 Kill Totals 3 6 25.50
Team Kill Totals 9 6 16.67 Team Kill Totals 3 6 11.25
Game Time Totals 5 10 29.7 Game Time Totals 5 4 30.75
Dragons over 4.5 6 9 Dragons over 4.5 3 6
Towers over 11.5 7 8 Towers over 11.5 4 5

 

League Rank FunPlus Tale of the Tape Invictus League Rank
1 1636.7 Gold Diff @ 10 min -320.8 12
2 1151.3 Gold Diff @ 15 min -813.5 15
2 266.6 Gold Diff @ 20 min -487.5 15
118.1 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -32.0
1 135.0 Gold Diff / min first 20 -69.2 14
6 393.4 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 412.1 4
1 1960.1 Gold /min (GPM) 1777.6 10
181.3 Gold / min vs Avg -1.2
2 246.6 Gold Diff / min -62.6 12
2 3.4 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -0.9 12
1 1705.3 Kill Agnostic GPM 1616.8 5
1 163.4 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -16.3 12
1 2030.2 GPM in wins 2003.8 2
2 400.7 Gold Diff per min in wins 281.6 14
1 1767.5 GPM in losses 1616.0 10
1 -177.2 Gold Diff per min in losses -308.4 8
256.3 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -52.9
1 85.1 Win-Adjusted GPM 58.7 2
2 80.0 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -39.1 14
1 75.0 Dragon Control % 56.0 5
6 53.3 Herald Control % 75.0 1
2 64.7 Baron Control % 56.3 9
7.0 Quality Wins? 1.0
63.6 % of wins as Quality 20.0

 

 (These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 49.080%
2 1 29.392%
1 2 12.562%
0 2 8.966%
(Series Win): 78.472%

So this one requires some context because if you told me even a few weeks ago that Invictus would be this big a dog against anyone I’d have a really REALLY hard time not backing them. This is exactly the kind of situation you want to back them in but the fact of the matter is that this team is a hot mess at the moment. The top trio of Neny, XUN, and Rookie have been excellent with a few exceptions but this bottom lane is just a black hole for IG in EVERY SINGLE GAME. It’s really sad because you’re starting to see how this is adversely affecting the top trio who are overcompensating by playing overly aggressive way too often. Invictus should be a good team and similarly to DAMWON right now, just need to find a bottom lane that isn’t going to be a liability. Apparently that’s more difficult than it sounds.

I’m going against my model and backing FunPlus to sweep here. FPX are the best team on the planet in terms of performance metrics. They have the best kill agnostic economy of any team in the five major regions, are completely dominating early games spiking massive gold leads and get this… they’re not even a herald priority team they’re doing this purely through laning and prefer to stack dragons. FunPlus are one of these chameleon teams that just does whatever is optimal for the opponent they’re against and I actually think they’re probably the best team in the world at the moment along with EDG.

If you’re interested in the dogs I can see why, it was my first instinct too but Invictus are just too much of a mess at the moment that I want nothing to do with them especially against the good teams until the bottom lane can prove to me that they aren’t running it down every game. IG first herald is an interesting way to play this one if you want a piece of the action though.

 

My Picks:

Map Spread: FPX -1.5 maps @ -154 (1.54 units)

 


 

LCK Summer 2021

Week Four – Day Four

 

T1 -175 (-1.5 maps @ +169, +1.5 @ -588)

vs

Afreeca Freecs +146 (+1.5 maps @ -222, -1.5 @ +390)

 

Map Moneyline: T1 -164 / AF +128

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -111 / under -116)

Kill Spread: -4.5 @ -105 / +4.5 @ -122

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 10.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -105 / under -122)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  +106 / -136 (map), +122 / -145 (series), +400 / -135 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: Afreeca series moneyline and +1.5 maps

Trends
T1 as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) AF as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 4 2 -450 Matches as Underdogs 3 2 +203
Against Map Spread 3 3 -15 Against Map Spread 3 2 -180
Against Kill Spread 5 8 6.3 Against Kill Spread 7 4 +4
Kill Totals 6 7 23.17 Kill Totals 7 4 23.30
Team Kill Totals 7 6 14.00 Team Kill Totals 8 3 9.90
Game Time Totals 8 5 32.2 Game Time Totals 6 5 32.20
Dragons over 4.5 8 5 Dragons over 4.5 7 4
Towers over 11.5 6 7 Towers over 11.5 7 4
League Rank T1 Tale of the Tape AF League Rank
4.0 20.8 Gold Diff @ 10 min 686.4 1.0
2.0 645.9 Gold Diff @ 15 min 372.0 3.0
3.0 479.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min 58.5 2.0
35.0 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 23.2
3.0 33.2 Gold Diff / min first 20 63.0 1.0
2.0 248.6 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 114.6 3.0
2.0 1823.2 Gold /min (GPM) 1791.3 3.0
61.0 Gold / min vs Avg 29.0
2.0 104.4 Gold Diff / min 62.6 3.0
2.0 1.5 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 0.9 3.0
2.0 1650.6 Kill Agnostic GPM 1632.7 3.0
2.0 66.4 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 49.9 3.0
7.0 1911.6 GPM in wins 1927.7 4.0
5.0 309.1 Gold Diff per min in wins 348.1 2.0
1.0 1709.6 GPM in losses 1637.9 3.0
2.0 -158.8 Gold Diff per min in losses -258.7 3.0
107.7 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 65.8
7.0 5.6 Win-Adjusted GPM 21.7 4.0
5.0 19.4 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 58.4 2.0
4.0 51.2 Dragon Control % 51.8 3.0
8.0 43.3 Herald Control % 73.5 1.0
3.0 64.0 Baron Control % 56.5 4.0
4.0 Quality Wins? 6.0
44.4 % of wins as Quality 66.7

 (These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
0 2 29.942%
1 2 27.116%
2 1 22.439%
2 0 20.504%
(Series Win): 42.943%

This is a weird one to handicap because it feels like this T1 team is in a bit of a rut but it’s hard to trust that they’ll remain that way this team is simply too talented and experienced. That said, the fact of the matter is that Afreeca have arguably been the better team this season. These two are very similar in terms of overall economy but Afreeca’s control of the early game objectives, specifically the rift herald, is how you want to be playing the game right now in my opinion. The game is so snowbally that you don’t want to be playing from a deficit and Afreeca have been a superior early game team. With a few exceptions they’ve cleaned up their bad throwing habit from last season (although I got a little shell shocked from last outing). This is a significantly better team.

I think T1 are probably going to end up being the better team but at this current point in time I like Afreeca quite a bit here. I’m not quite as bullish as the model is on them but I think this is roughly a coin flip and you’re getting a great price on the dogs.

 

My Picks:

Moneyline: Afreeca +146 (1 units)

Map Spread: Afreeca -1.5 maps @ +390 (0.25 units)

Prop: Map 1 Afreeca first herald @ -115 (1.15 units)

Prop: Map 2 Afreeca first herald @ -161 (1.61 units)

 


 

Liiv Sandbox -370 (-1.5 maps @ -109, +1.5 @ -1429)

vs

DRX +292 (+1.5 maps @ -116, -1.5 @ +706)

 

Map Moneyline: LSB -278 / DRX +210

Kill Total: 22.5 (over -122 / under -106)

Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -120 / +6.5 @ -108

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 8.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over +119 / under -156)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  -266 / +202 (map), -405 / +316 (series), -107 / -119 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: none

Trends
LSB as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) DRX as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 0 1 -222 Matches as Underdogs 0 6 +268
Against Map Spread 0 1 +147 Against Map Spread 2 4 -89
Against Kill Spread 0 2 4.5 Against Kill Spread 4 10 +5
Kill Totals 1 1 24.50 Kill Totals 6 8 23.17
Team Kill Totals 0 2 13.50 Team Kill Totals 4 10 8.83
Game Time Totals 1 1 33.0 Game Time Totals 7 7 32.17
Dragons over 4.5 1 1 Dragons over 4.5 5 8
Towers over 11.5 1 1 Towers over 11.5 5 8

 

League Rank LSB Tale of the Tape DRX League Rank
10.0 -734.6 Gold Diff @ 10 min -725.9 9.0
8.0 -555.3 Gold Diff @ 15 min -1717.0 10.0
8.0 -898.1 Gold Diff @ 20 min -1572.5 10.0
9.8 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -58.8
5.0 -1.8 Gold Diff / min first 20 -115.2 10.0
7.0 -58.6 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -609.1 10.0
6.0 1754.3 Gold /min (GPM) 1636.0 10.0
-7.9 Gold / min vs Avg -126.3
8.0 -34.5 Gold Diff / min -281.9 10.0
8.0 -0.5 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -4.0 10.0
7.0 1600.8 Kill Agnostic GPM 1551.0 10.0
5.0 -10.3 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -167.8 10.0
8.0 1902.4 GPM in wins 1797.3 10.0
8.0 245.6 Gold Diff per min in wins 99.4 10.0
9.0 1569.3 GPM in losses 1612.9 5.0
10.0 -384.6 Gold Diff per min in losses -336.4 8.0
-31.3 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -278.7
8.0 -3.6 Win-Adjusted GPM -108.7 10.0
8.0 -44.2 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -190.4 10.0
6.0 50.6 Dragon Control % 30.1 10.0
2.0 60.0 Herald Control % 21.9 10.0
7.0 45.5 Baron Control % 11.1 10.0
3.0 Quality Wins? 0.0
60.0 % of wins as Quality 0.0

 

 (These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 48.662%
2 1 29.433%
1 2 12.760%
0 2 9.146%
(Series Win): 78.094%

I mentioned it on the podcast that I rarely “auto fade” a team because in principle it’s just sort of stupid but I’m really close to that with DRX at this point. The players aren’t bad but they’re just playing an outdated style of League at the moment. Square peg, round hole. Sandbox on the other hand are doing exactly what you should be doing right now, trying to snowball leads through early herald control and lane priority even if that means sacrificing some of your economy to get the ball rolling.

This is an absolute nightmare matchup for DRX. I don’t think they have an individual player advantage at any position except maybe jungle and as I mentioned they’re bringing a knife to a gun fight essentially. Sandbox still have some small issues here and there but they’re a significantly better team. Back the favorites.

My Picks:

Moneyline: Sandbox -370 (3.7 units)

Map Spread: Sandbox -1.5 maps @ -109 (0.545 units)

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -222 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -222 (1 unit)

 


 

LEC Summer 2021

Week Four – Day Two

 

 

 

Team Vitality -270 vs Excel Esports +210

 

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -104 / under -125)

Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -123 / +6.5 @ -110

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 8.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over +107 / under -139)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: VIT -335 / XL +247

Model Suggested Play: Vitality moneyline (miniscule)

 

League Rank VIT Tale of the Tape XL League Rank
1.0 1330.9 Gold Diff @ 10 min -633.7 8.0
5.0 489.3 Gold Diff @ 15 min -2203.2 10.0
3.0 126.2 Gold Diff @ 20 min -2113.3 10.0
26.6 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -129.8
4.0 61.1 Gold Diff / min first 20 -146.0 10.0
3.0 374.7 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -600.0 10.0
4.0 1825.7 Gold /min (GPM) 1600.8 10.0
52.0 Gold / min vs Avg -173.0
4.0 126.2 Gold Diff / min -238.9 10.0
4.0 1.9 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -3.5 10.0
4.0 1633.1 Kill Agnostic GPM 1490.1 10.0
4.0 93.6 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -165.8 10.0
2.0 1967.1 GPM in wins 1808.0 10.0
1.0 470.0 Gold Diff per min in wins 179.1 10.0
5.0 1637.3 GPM in losses 1517.9 10.0
7.0 -332.3 Gold Diff per min in losses -406.1 10.0
126.2 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -238.9
2.0 54.3 Win-Adjusted GPM -104.8 10.0
1.0 180.5 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -110.4 10.0
3.0 60.0 Dragon Control % 36.7 9.0
7.0 46.2 Herald Control % 50.0 6.0
3.0 62.5 Baron Control % 33.3 8.0
3.0 Quality Wins? 0.0
75.0 % of wins as Quality 0.0

 (These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

I cautioned against being overconfident in Vitality coming off of the stellar week that they had in week four as this can be a bit of a feast or famine team. I do think Zanzarah is onto something with this Trundle but that’s a different discussion for a different time. Excel also picked up an unexpected win yesterday against a struggling G2 lineup but had struggled mightily this season otherwise.

I’m going back to the Vitality well here. What they’re doing is way more repeatable and consistent and I think they’ve got stronger players at every position. If they beat themselves then so be it.

I’m going to be playing a few derivatives here as well. The kill total projection for this game on my end is 21.649 kills with only 42.86% of games going over the 22.5 total between these two teams combined with a low volatility rating. Vitality first dragon and under towers were also flagged as strong plays. Feels like a lot but if the value is there then the value is there.

My Picks:

Kill Spread (alt): Vitality -7.5 kills @ -101 (1.01 units)

Kill Total (alt): UNDER 22.5 @ +101 (1 unit)

Prop: Vitality first dragon @ -156 (1 unit)

Prop: UNDER 12.5 towers @ -270 (1 unit)

 


 

FC Schalke 04 -169 vs Astralis +131

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -106 / under -122)

Kill Spread: -3.5 @ -127 / +3.5 @ -108

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 11.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over +107 / under -139)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  S04 +105 / AST -134

Model Suggested Play: Astralis moneyline (strong)

League Rank S04 Tale of the Tape AST League Rank
10.0 -847.1 Gold Diff @ 10 min -840.9 9.0
8.0 -1619.4 Gold Diff @ 15 min -1701.1 9.0
8.0 -1515.6 Gold Diff @ 20 min -1752.9 9.0
-92.6 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -84.8
8.0 -116.3 Gold Diff / min first 20 -136.9 9.0
8.0 -407.7 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -172.4 7.0
9.0 1649.9 Gold /min (GPM) 1663.5 7.0
-123.9 Gold / min vs Avg -110.3
8.0 -204.7 Gold Diff / min -171.3 7.0
9.0 -3.0 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -2.4 7.0
7.0 1530.6 Kill Agnostic GPM 1513.2 9.0
7.0 -110.0 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -132.3 8.0
8.0 1904.9 GPM in wins 1823.5 9.0
8.0 209.0 Gold Diff per min in wins 197.7 9.0
9.0 1547.9 GPM in losses 1599.5 7.0
9.0 -370.2 Gold Diff per min in losses -318.9 6.0
-204.7 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -171.3
8.0 -7.9 Win-Adjusted GPM -89.3 9.0
8.0 -80.5 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -91.8 9.0
10.0 17.9 Dragon Control % 40.0 7.0
3.0 57.1 Herald Control % 42.9 8.0
8.0 33.3 Baron Control % 36.4 7.0
1.0 Quality Wins? 0.0
50.0 % of wins as Quality 0.0

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Keep in mind the above numbers do NOT include today’s matches which were both wins for these teams, Astralis picking up their first quality win of the season over Vitality and Schalke picking up a win against Fnatic in a back-and-forth affair with them picking p all five dragons off the back of a dominant performance from the bottom lane and Nuclearint’s Twisted Fate creating and absorbing a ton of pressure through the first twenty minutes of the game.

I like Schalke’s roster on paper quite a bit more and they haven’t been playing as badly as their record shows but this is still far from that impressive a team and I think what we saw yesterday is closer to an outlier than what we should expect while Astralis have mostly been a similar team in most of their games.

To me this is essentially a coin flip. I think Astralis have been playing better as a team overall but Schalke have the better individual players with Brokenblade, Neon and Limit. Coin flip take the dog.

I like the kill total under here as well with a projection of 24.242 kills, the model actually flagged the alternate total of 26.5 and 25.5 each as double digit edge’s on market price based on frequency. The time total was also flagged for frequency purposes but these teams are getting whooped quickly fairly often so far so that’s got to be considered for that as well as kills per minute considerations regarding the kill total. I still like the under quite a bit here.

My Picks:

Moneyline: Astralis +131 (1 unit)

Kill Total (alt): UNDER 26.5 @ -143 (1 unit)

 


 

SK Gaming +286 vs Fnatic -400

 

Kill Total: 27.5 (over -108 / under -122)

Kill Spread: +9.5 @ -128 / -9.5 @ -105

Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 17.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over +101 / under -132)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  SK +414 / FNC -639

Model Suggested Play: Fnatic moneyline

 

League Rank FNC Tale of the Tape SK League Rank
2.0 1281.3 Gold Diff @ 10 min -613.0 7.0
3.0 776.6 Gold Diff @ 15 min -1262.3 7.0
4.0 197.4 Gold Diff @ 20 min -910.9 7.0
70.2 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -43.4
5.0 54.1 Gold Diff / min first 20 -73.6 7.0
2.0 488.4 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -513.8 9.0
1.0 1914.6 Gold /min (GPM) 1663.1 8.0
140.8 Gold / min vs Avg -110.7
2.0 197.4 Gold Diff / min -209.0 9.0
2.0 2.8 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -2.9 8.0
2.0 1660.9 Kill Agnostic GPM 1527.6 8.0
1.0 127.6 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -142.3 9.0
3.0 1951.4 GPM in wins 1906.9 7.0
2.0 327.7 Gold Diff per min in wins 313.1 3.0
2.0 1822.4 GPM in losses 1622.4 6.0
2.0 -128.2 Gold Diff per min in losses -296.0 5.0
197.4 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -209.0
3.0 38.7 Win-Adjusted GPM -5.9 7.0
2.0 38.2 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 23.6 3.0
2.0 68.8 Dragon Control % 40.0 7.0
2.0 69.2 Herald Control % 35.7 9.0
1.0 80.0 Baron Control % 22.2 10.0
3.0 Quality Wins? 0.0
60.0 % of wins as Quality 0.0

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

SK Gaming were nearly perfect gamed by Rogue yesterday and I’d expect a similar thing from Fnatic here. The question is how to play it. This is a very high kill spread, to the point where it’s worth considering playing SK Gaming but I think playing the Fnatic team total under is probably your best bet if you want to attack this one or playing SK first blood but that’s a high volatility play.

FNC League Average SK
Combined Kills / game 31.009 26.54 23.893
Combined Kills / min 0.975 0.83 0.780
Kills per win 19.125 16.89 17.000
Kills per loss 13.884 10.07 8.313
Deaths per win 10.00 8.81 7.00
Deaths per loss 21.50 18.30 15.17
Average Margin of Victory (AMOV) 9.00 8.39 10.00
Average Margin of Defeat (AMOD) 5.50 8.14 6.50

 

I’ll be sticking with Fnatic team total under 17.5. Fnatic are scoring very high in wins but have only eclipsed this number in 28.6% of their games this season. SK also don’t give up a lot of deaths in losses and their games tend to be lower scoring.

My Picks:

Kill Total (team): Fnatic team total UNDER 17.5 kills @ -114 (1.14 units)

 


 

Misfits -101 vs G2 Esports -127

 

Kill Total: 27.5 (over -112 / under -115)

Kill Spread: +3.5 @ -110 / -3.5 @ -123

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 14.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -109 / under -119)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  MSF -269 / G2 +200

Model Suggested Play: Misfits moneyline (very strong)

 

League Rank G2 Tale of the Tape MSF League Rank
3.0 1006.0 Gold Diff @ 10 min 195.4 6.0
6.0 268.8 Gold Diff @ 15 min 1581.6 2.0
6.0 352.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min 1508.0 2.0
20.2 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 51.6
6.0 -18.9 Gold Diff / min first 20 101.0 2.0
6.0 16.5 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 579.4 1.0
6.0 1806.8 Gold /min (GPM) 1899.6 2.0
33.0 Gold / min vs Avg 125.8
6.0 16.5 Gold Diff / min 255.2 1.0
6.0 0.1 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 3.7 1.0
6.0 1596.3 Kill Agnostic GPM 1657.7 3.0
6.0 12.9 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 124.8 2.0
1.0 1975.4 GPM in wins 1911.6 6.0
7.0 290.7 Gold Diff per min in wins 311.6 4.0
8.0 1581.9 GPM in losses 1827.4 1.0
8.0 -349.1 Gold Diff per min in losses -83.5 1.0
16.5 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 255.2
1.0 62.6 Win-Adjusted GPM -1.2 6.0
7.0 1.2 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 22.1 4.0
4.0 55.2 Dragon Control % 73.5 1.0
10.0 16.7 Herald Control % 57.1 3.0
5.0 50.0 Baron Control % 62.5 3.0
2.0 Quality Wins? 3.0
50.0 % of wins as Quality 50.0

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

We talked extensively about G2 on the podcast this week and whether or not we should be concerned so I’d encourage you to check that out. I mentioned a bit more in the article yesterday as well.

Long story short, Misfits should be favored by quite a bit here but G2 are receiving a ton of respect from the books who had them graded as the top team in the league going into the Summer split. I think we all know that’s not true but the market hasn’t even come close to correcting enough yet. Misfits have struggled a bit against the good teams but I think your Rogues and MAD Lions and Fnatics are different level than G2 who are a cut below them until they prove otherwise. Grabbz even came out on Twitter and said they’re not in great form at the moment.

This is a slam dunk Misfits bet.

My Picks:

Moneyline: Misfits -101 (2.02 units)

Prop: UNDER 12.5 towers @ -303 (1 unit)

 


 

Rogue -152 vs MAD Lions +118

 

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -116 / under -111)

Kill Spread: -4.5 @ -115 / +4.5 @ -118

Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 11.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -110 / under -118)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  ROG -128 / MAD -100

Model Suggested Play: MAD moneyline (miniscule)

 

League Rank ROG Tale of the Tape MAD League Rank
4.0 974.0 Gold Diff @ 10 min 251.4 5.0
1.0 2517.4 Gold Diff @ 15 min 550.9 4.0
1.0 2704.1 Gold Diff @ 20 min 752.1 5.0
132.4 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 49.5
1.0 187.0 Gold Diff / min first 20 73.3 3.0
5.0 114.5 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 124.7 4.0
3.0 1889.9 Gold /min (GPM) 1823.9 5.0
116.1 Gold / min vs Avg 50.2
3.0 143.4 Gold Diff / min 85.2 5.0
3.0 2.1 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 1.2 5.0
1.0 1685.0 Kill Agnostic GPM 1631.7 5.0
3.0 100.3 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 91.1 5.0
4.0 1948.4 GPM in wins 1930.6 5.0
6.0 297.1 Gold Diff per min in wins 299.0 5.0
3.0 1743.7 GPM in losses 1681.7 4.0
4.0 -240.6 Gold Diff per min in losses -200.0 3.0
143.4 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 85.2
4.0 35.6 Win-Adjusted GPM 17.8 5.0
6.0 7.6 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 9.5 5.0
6.0 48.4 Dragon Control % 55.2 4.0
3.0 57.1 Herald Control % 71.4 1.0
6.0 44.4 Baron Control % 77.8 2.0
3.0 Quality Wins? 1.0
60.0 % of wins as Quality 25.0

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

This is a fair price for this matchup to me. MAD Lions played arguably their best game of the split yesterday although Misfits did nearly counterpunch the initial Kalista dive play on top side to keep this interesting, the Kalista was just too much to deal with. Rogue nearly perfect gamed a weaker SK Gaming team. Generally I think Rogue have looked better over the course of the Summer even in a metagame that isn’t ideal for Larssen but we also know that MAD have been taking it easy as well.

Rogue want this match bad after the reverse sweep tragedy from Spring finals that kept them from going to MSI. Larssen said in an interview yesterday that he’s had eyes on this match. Interesting timing from MAD Lions to “check back in” for this weekend right?

This should be a great match. If I absolutely had to take a side it’d be Rogue as they’ve looked better overall and I backed them in Spring finals as well but these are good prices.

My Picks:

no wagers

 


LCS Summer 2021

Week Five – Day Two

 

Immortals +145 vs Team Solo Mid -189

 

Kill Total: 22.5 (over -118 / under -110)

Kill Spread: +4.5 @ -118 / -4.5 @ -110

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 12.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over +110 / under -143)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: IMT -114 / TSM -112

Model Suggested Play: Immortals moneyline

League Rank TSM Tale of the Tape IMT League Rank
7 -173.0 Gold Diff @ 10 min -385.4 8
5 -237.9 Gold Diff @ 15 min -775.5 10
5 55.3 Gold Diff @ 20 min -1196.1 9
-25.5 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 31.6
5 -8.2 Gold Diff / min first 20 -20.1 6
5 134.4 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 358.1 2
7 1747.7 Gold /min (GPM) 1811.7 5
-33.7 Gold / min vs Avg 30.4
6 40.2 Gold Diff / min 83.8 3
6 0.6 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 1.2 3
7 1588.4 Kill Agnostic GPM 1617.0 5
5 25.1 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 34.3 4
9 1563.4 Opp Kill Agnostic GPM 1582.7 7
9 1821.0 GPM in wins 1939.1 3
9 168.8 Gold Diff per min in wins 318.6 6
9 1559.4 GPM in losses 1633.4 3
6 -305.3 Gold Diff per min in losses -244.8 3
52.2 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 95.8
9 -121.8 Win-Adjusted GPM -3.7 3
9 -117.6 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 32.1 6
5 51.8 Dragon Control % 57.1 4
2 60.9 Herald Control % 50.0 4
1 80.0 Baron Control % 69.2 2
2.0 Quality Wins? 4.0
22.2 % of wins as Quality 57.1

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Both of these teams are coming off of losses yesterday. I’ve been talking a lot about the delta between the results and performance of TSM and continue to believe that they’re much better than their performance metrics while also due for some regression in the wins column. A team can be simultaneously overrated and still improve on what we’ve seen. Immortals on the other hand have been mostly steady as she goes.

I’m taking a shot on Immortals here mostly because this price is a little disrespectful.

My Picks:

Moneyline: Immortals +145 (1 unit)

Prop: Immortals first herald @ +119 (1 unit)

Prop: OVER 12.5 towers @ +166 (1 unit)

 


Evil Geniuses -200 vs CLG +154

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -105 / under -122)

Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -103 / +6.5 @ -125

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -122 / under -108)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  EG -216 / CLG +165

Model Suggested Play: none

League Rank EG Tale of the Tape CLG League Rank
3 305.3 Gold Diff @ 10 min -86.8 5
2 1238.5 Gold Diff @ 15 min -250.4 6
2 719.8 Gold Diff @ 20 min 104.4 6
21.2 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -30.5
2 81.4 Gold Diff / min first 20 -29.3 7
6 42.5 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -166.5 7
1 1918.0 Gold /min (GPM) 1712.1 8
136.6 Gold / min vs Avg -69.3
5 42.5 Gold Diff / min -84.9 7
5 0.7 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -1.2 7
1 1707.2 Kill Agnostic GPM 1562.8 8
6 20.7 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -55.6 7
2 1686.5 Opp Kill Agnostic GPM 1618.4 6
1 2204.9 GPM in wins 1920.0 6
7 299.6 Gold Diff per min in wins 341.8 3
4 1631.1 GPM in losses 1608.2 5
2 -214.7 Gold Diff per min in losses -298.2 5
54.4 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -73.0
1 262.2 Win-Adjusted GPM -22.8 6
7 13.1 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 55.3 3
6 47.5 Dragon Control % 42.4 8
1 62.5 Herald Control % 43.5 6
7 33.3 Baron Control % 52.9 5
4.0 Quality Wins? 3.0
66.7 % of wins as Quality 75.0

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Two teams trending in opposite directions. Evil Geniuses are playing very good League of Legends right now and in the method you should be doing so, CLG are not. This really is that simple. I’m going against the model and backing the favorites and the over.

My Picks:

Moneyline: Evil Geniuses -200 (2 units)

Kill Total (alt): OVER 26.5 @ +113 (1 unit)

 


 

Team Liquid +121 vs Cloud 9 -154

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -105 / under -123)

Kill Spread: +4.5 @ -125 / -4.5 @ -104

Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 13.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -169 / under +129)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  TL -123 / C9 -103

Model Suggested Play: Liquid moneyline

League Rank C9 Tale of the Tape TL League Rank
2 611.7 Gold Diff @ 10 min 182.2 4
3 704.5 Gold Diff @ 15 min -76.7 4
3 556.1 Gold Diff @ 20 min 47.8 4
11.6 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -0.1
3 59.5 Gold Diff / min first 20 18.0 4
4 210.4 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 258.6 3
2 1874.8 Gold /min (GPM) 1818.3 4
93.4 Gold / min vs Avg 36.9
4 67.7 Gold Diff / min 109.1 2
4 0.8 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 1.6 2
2 1688.2 Kill Agnostic GPM 1620.7 4
3 48.6 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 50.9 2
4 1639.6 Opp Kill Agnostic GPM 1569.9 8
2 2163.4 GPM in wins 1924.0 4
1 402.7 Gold Diff per min in wins 337.7 4
7 1586.1 GPM in losses 1670.3 2
4 -267.2 Gold Diff per min in losses -210.9 1
79.7 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 121.1
2 220.6 Win-Adjusted GPM -18.8 4
1 116.2 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 51.3 4
7 47.2 Dragon Control % 58.3 1
4 50.0 Herald Control % 36.4 10
6 42.9 Baron Control % 66.7 3
6.0 Quality Wins? 5.0
100.0 % of wins as Quality 71.4

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Liquid are going to remain a competitive team despite all the behind the scenes issues they’re going through. Good players, veteran leadership, and great macro fundamentals are just going to keep this team within striking distance. Cloud 9 had a much better looking outing yesterday against Immortals but there are still plenty of questions about this teams current form because one game doesn’t necessarily mean that much.

I’m passing on this one. The model likes Liquid mostly because of Cloud 9’s prolonged struggles this season but I think they’re going to start rounding into form sooner rather than later. I can’t come up with a reasonable edge on a side in this one either way.

My Picks:

Prop: Liquid first dragon @ -164 (1 unit)

Kill Total (alt): UNDER 24.5 @ -104 (1.04 units)

 


Dignitas -143 vs Golden Guardians +109

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -108 / under -120)

Kill Spread: -1.5 @ -112 / +1.5 @ -115

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 11.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over +123 / under -161)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  DIG +114 / GGS -150

Model Suggested Play: Golden Guardians moneyline

League Rank DIG Tale of the Tape GGS League Rank
9 -481.8 Gold Diff @ 10 min -663.8 10
8 -352.8 Gold Diff @ 15 min -337.2 7
8 -136.6 Gold Diff @ 20 min -793.8 10
-11.6 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -30.5
8 -55.3 Gold Diff / min first 20 -59.2 9
9 -410.7 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -181.5 8
9 1682.1 Gold /min (GPM) 1789.0 6
-99.3 Gold / min vs Avg 7.7
8 -170.1 Gold Diff / min -199.6 9
8 -2.4 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -2.5 9
9 1519.2 Kill Agnostic GPM 1639.7 3
10 -125.0 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -81.3 8
3 1644.2 Opp Kill Agnostic GPM 1721.0 1
5 1920.0 GPM in wins 1836.5 8
5 330.0 Gold Diff per min in wins 169.1 8
6 1595.6 GPM in losses 1765.3 1
8 -352.0 Gold Diff per min in losses -383.9 9
-158.2 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -187.6
5 -22.7 Win-Adjusted GPM -106.2 8
5 43.6 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -117.4 8
9 41.5 Dragon Control % 57.7 3
9 41.4 Herald Control % 56.5 3
10 25.0 Baron Control % 31.3 8
2.0 Quality Wins? 0.0
50.0 % of wins as Quality 0.0

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

I kind of like the brand of face roll, idiot-proof League that Golden Guardians is playing right now. They make sure they’re at objective fights as a five man unit and contest you. It’s not the most graceful or nuanced setup by any means but it’s working for them. It’s why they’re able to get behind in games and just brute force things and their drafts line up with that.

Outside of a few performances here and there, including yesterday, GGS have been the better team so far in Summer and they’re still being disrespected by the market. This team is in no way shape or form a playoff team or even what I’d call a good team but they’ve been better than Dignitas. Back the dogs here and the over.

My Picks:

Moneyline: GGS +109 (1 unit)

Prop: GGS first herald @ -109 (1.09 units)

Kill Total: OVER 25.5 @ -108 (1.08 units)

 


FlyQuest +365 vs 100 Thieves -556

 

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -109 / under -119)

Kill Spread: +8.5 @ -116 / -8.5 @ -111

Team Kill Totals: 7.5 / 15.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over +126 / under -164)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  FLY +620 / 100T -1211

Model Suggested Play: 100T moneyline

League Rank 100T Tale of the Tape FLY League Rank
1 985.4 Gold Diff @ 10 min -142.2 6
1 2147.4 Gold Diff @ 15 min -418.3 9
1 1957.3 Gold Diff @ 20 min -98.4 7
83.7 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -50.1
1 148.3 Gold Diff / min first 20 -81.9 10
1 429.9 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -557.2 10
3 1831.1 Gold /min (GPM) 1628.9 10
49.7 Gold / min vs Avg -152.5
1 214.4 Gold Diff / min -222.7 10
1 3.0 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -3.2 10
6 1613.7 Kill Agnostic GPM 1504.5 10
1 123.6 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -124.7 9
10 1490.1 Opp Kill Agnostic GPM 1629.2 5
7 1890.1 GPM in wins 1808.6 10
2 343.2 Gold Diff per min in wins 153.3 10
10 1535.9 GPM in losses 1569.0 8
10 -429.3 Gold Diff per min in losses -348.0 7
226.4 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -210.8
7 -52.6 Win-Adjusted GPM -134.1 10
2 56.7 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -133.2 10
2 57.8 Dragon Control % 35.6 10
7 42.9 Herald Control % 42.9 7
3 66.7 Baron Control % 31.3 8
7.0 Quality Wins? 2.0
70.0 % of wins as Quality 66.7

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

I wouldn’t get cute on this one. In terms of derivatives the best value is on the kill total unders and dragon total unders.

My Picks:

Moneyline: 100T -556 (2 units)

Prop: UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -127 (1 unit)

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and you can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

 

 

 

 

 

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