Friday, July 30th Recap

 

EDward Gaming vs Victory Five (no action)

Rogue Warriors vs Team WE (Net: +0.68 units)

 

Nongshim RedForce vs Liiv Sandbox (Net: +1.55 units)

Gen.G vs KT Rolster (Net: -3.3 units)

 

Vitality vs Schalke (Net: -1.0 units)

SK Gaming vs Astralis (Net: -1.0 units)

Rogue vs Excel (Net: +3.1 units)

MAD Lions vs G2 Esports (Net: +1.02 units)

Misfits vs Fnatic (no action)

 

TSM vs 100 Thieves (Net: +1.64 units)

Evil Geniuses vs Cloud 9 (Net: +3.64 units)

FlyQuest vs Golden Guardians (Net: +/- 0)

Team Liquid vs Immortals (Net: -2.0 units)

Dignitas vs CLG (Net: +1.62 units)

 

 

LPL Net Total: +0.68 units

LCK Net Total: -1.75 units

LEC Net Total: +2.12 units

LCS Net Total: +4.9 units

 

Daily Net Total: +5.95 units

 

 


LPL Summer 2021

Week Eight – Day Six

 

 

Royal Never Give Up -185 (-1.5 maps @ +150, +1.5 @ -556)

vs

RareAtom +144 (+1.5 maps @ -192, -1.5 @ +372)

 

Map Moneyline: RNG -185 / RA +143

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -111 / under -118)

Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -123 / +5.5 @ -105

Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -108 / under -120)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -131 / +102 (map), -140 / +111 (series), +216 / -286 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play:  RareAtom +1.5 maps (moderate), RA series moneyline and -1.5 maps (light)

Starters:

RNG – Xiaohu, Wei, Cryin, GALA, Ming

RA – Cube, Leyan, FoFo, iBoy, Hang

Trends
RNG as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) RA as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 7 3 -1203 Matches as Underdogs 3 2 +98
Against Map Spread 6 4 -70 Against Map Spread 4 1 -251
Against Kill Spread 13 10 7.4 Against Kill Spread 6 7 +5
Kill Totals 14 9 25.90 Kill Totals 5 8 25.50
Team Kill Totals 13 10 15.90 Team Kill Totals 7 6 11.10
Game Time Totals 10 13 29.9 Game Time Totals 6 7 31.20
Dragons over 4.5 9 14 Dragons over 4.5 6 7
Towers over 11.5 13 10 Towers over 11.5 4 9

 

League Rank Royal Never GU Tale of the Tape RA League Rank
5 428.4 Gold Diff @ 10 min 644.0 3
2 1659.4 Gold Diff @ 15 min 604.8 5
1 2387.5 Gold Diff @ 20 min 85.6 7
69.2 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 32.4
2 78.9 Gold Diff / min first 20 80.0 6
8 376.2 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 296.0 10
2 1885.8 Gold /min (GPM) 1816.2 9
97.4 Gold / min vs Avg 27.8
3 132.1 Gold Diff / min 86.2 7
3 1.9 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 1.2 7
2 1668.1 Kill Agnostic GPM 1630.5 7
3 97.2 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 59.2 5
2 1993.8 GPM in wins 1935.2 11
3 363.7 Gold Diff per min in wins 316.9 12
2 1689.3 GPM in losses 1607.9 12
5 -289.0 Gold Diff per min in losses -317.6 10
136.5 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 90.6
2 47.6 Win-Adjusted GPM -11.1 11
3 43.8 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -3.0 12
11 48.5 Dragon Control % 56.8 4
5 59.7 Herald Control % 63.1 1
5 58.1 Baron Control % 53.7 10
13.0 Quality Wins? 12.0
65.0 % of wins as Quality 57.1

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 28.782%
2 1 26.682%
1 2 23.052%
0 2 21.484%
(Series Win): 55.464%

 

RNG have looked much better in recent weeks as they ramp into playoff shape despite trying out Yuekai in the mid lane for a few games. To me, RNG are going to be there in the end as one of the title contenders and if I had to make a tier list there’d be a top three with FPX, EDG, and RNG. That next tier down is much more intriguing as I think they’re all teams that are more than capable of beating the top three in a best of five but they have slight wrinkles or inconsistencies that separate them. The best of that next bunch? In my opinion it’s actually RareAtom.

I really don’t know what else this team needs to do to earn credibility besides take some playoff series at this point. People are still underrating how well equipped for this type of meta this team is. Other than Doinb, FoFo has a strong case for the next best mid laner in the league (Zeka and Knight in this conversation too).

I think RNG are a better team but I agree with the model here an d think RareAtom are very live in this series. A lot of the RNG derivatives are showing advantages such as first tower and first blood especially and if I was going to play this series that’s how I’d do it but I’m going to abstain here. We could have had a better price on RareAtom like we did before the rescheduling where they were in the ballpark of +155.

My Picks:

no wagers

 

 


UltraPrime +554 (+1.5 maps @ +175, -1.5 @ +1300)

vs

TOP Esports -1000 (-1.5 maps @ -227)

 

Map Moneyline: UP +365 / TOP -556

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -120 / under -109)

Kill Spread: +9.5 @ -110 / -9.5 @ -118

Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 17.5

Time Total: 29:00 (over -152 / under +116)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: +405 / -639 (map), +852 / -2222 (series), +199 / -261 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play:  TOP series moneyline (light)

Starters:

UP – Zs, H4cker, Xiaocaobao, Smlz, ShiauC

TOP – 369, Karsa, Knight, JackeyLove, Zhuo

Trends
TOP as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) UP as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 7 5 -967 Matches as Underdogs 1 10 +541
Against Map Spread 4 8 +16 Against Map Spread 3 8 +63
Against Kill Spread 13 16 6.1 Against Kill Spread 11 14 +8
Kill Totals 18 11 26.33 Kill Totals 14 11 25.95
Team Kill Totals 12 17 15.67 Team Kill Totals 14 11 8.41
Game Time Totals 14 15 30.5 Game Time Totals 12 13 29.73
Dragons over 4.5 12 17 Dragons over 4.5 10 15
Towers over 11.5 15 14 Towers over 11.5 16 9

 

 

League Rank TOP Tale of the Tape UP League Rank
2 1068.6 Gold Diff @ 10 min -506.7 15
7 238.2 Gold Diff @ 15 min -1257.5 16
5 98.8 Gold Diff @ 20 min -1600.0 13
32.6 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -7.5
5 32.6 Gold Diff / min first 20 -54.7 11
1 443.2 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -194.9 17
4 1852.5 Gold /min (GPM) 1716.4 14
64.2 Gold / min vs Avg -72.0
4 115.9 Gold Diff / min -166.6 14
4 1.6 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -2.3 14
6 1633.7 Kill Agnostic GPM 1562.7 13
4 72.4 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -88.3 14
3 1993.0 GPM in wins 1938.2 10
2 368.8 Gold Diff per min in wins 347.5 7
5 1658.0 GPM in losses 1635.8 8
2 -234.4 Gold Diff per min in losses -353.6 13
120.3 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -162.2
3 46.8 Win-Adjusted GPM -8.1 10
2 48.8 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 27.6 7
3 57.8 Dragon Control % 47.3 12
6 56.5 Herald Control % 33.3 16
1 65.1 Baron Control % 36.6 15
15.0 Quality Wins? 5.0
83.3 % of wins as Quality 62.5

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 69.446%
2 1 23.148%
1 2 4.629%
0 2 2.778%
(Series Win): 92.593%

 

This one is a little tricky because UltraPrime now have nothing to lose. They’ve been eliminated while TOP Esports are still battling amongst a crowded middle of the pack for playoff seeding. Technically they haven’t clinched playoffs yet but this series would likely put them over the top for that so expect them to show up to play here.

The only real edges I’m showing here are the over 12.5 towers by a few percentage points which is a decent look given the +349 price on it but I think there’s a very real chance that TOP Esports just completely obliterate this matchup so I’m just going to pass. If I had to make a wager on this it’d actually be the TOP -1.5 maps and eat the chalk.

My Picks:

no wagers

 


 

FunPlus Phoenix -233 (-1.5 maps @ +125, +1.5 @ -667)

vs

JD Gaming +178 (+1.5 maps @ -161, -1.5 @ +428)

 

Map Moneyline: FPX -192 / JDG +147

Kill Total: 27.5 (over -122 / under -106)

Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -118 / +5.5 @ -110

Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 11.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -115 / under -112)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -301 / +221 (map), -515 / +351 (series), -121 / -105 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play:  FPX series moneyline (strong) and -1.5 maps (moderate)

Starters:

FPX – Nuguri, Tian, Doinb, Lwx, Crisp

JDG – Zoom, Kanavi, Yagao, LokeN, LvMao

Trends
FPX as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) JDG as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 9 3 -1011 Matches as Underdogs 2 2 +168
Against Map Spread 6 6 -38 Against Map Spread 3 1 -202
Against Kill Spread 14 16 7.3 Against Kill Spread 5 5 +4
Kill Totals 18 12 26.33 Kill Totals 9 1 26.50
Team Kill Totals 15 15 16.33 Team Kill Totals 4 6 11.75
Game Time Totals 13 17 30.0 Game Time Totals 5 5 31.75
Dragons over 4.5 10 20 Dragons over 4.5 5 5
Towers over 11.5 13 17 Towers over 11.5 6 4

 

 

League Rank FunPlus Tale of the Tape JDG League Rank
1 1735.9 Gold Diff @ 10 min -323.9 11
4 634.9 Gold Diff @ 15 min -480.5 10
2 257.8 Gold Diff @ 20 min -1050.0 12
90.3 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 27.7
1 86.4 Gold Diff / min first 20 -3.2 7
5 413.7 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 289.6 11
1 1908.8 Gold /min (GPM) 1819.2 8
120.5 Gold / min vs Avg 30.9
2 153.1 Gold Diff / min 21.4 10
2 2.1 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 0.3 10
1 1675.2 Kill Agnostic GPM 1611.4 10
1 104.8 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 10.7 10
1 1998.7 GPM in wins 1982.6 6
6 357.1 Gold Diff per min in wins 326.1 10
1 1711.2 GPM in losses 1645.6 7
6 -295.7 Gold Diff per min in losses -302.4 7
157.6 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 25.8
1 52.4 Win-Adjusted GPM 36.4 6
6 37.2 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 6.2 10
1 65.2 Dragon Control % 52.1 10
7 54.7 Herald Control % 30.8 17
4 60.6 Baron Control % 53.5 11
11.0 Quality Wins? 9.0
50.0 % of wins as Quality 52.9

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 51.731%
2 1 29.048%
1 2 11.339%
0 2 7.883%
(Series Win): 80.778%

 

I mentioned on the podcast this week that I had already bet this and back then it was closer to -200 but this is still a very strong value based on the model not to mention the eye test. JDG are like the barbarian in a dungeon crawling game, incredibly strong and definitely someone you want on your side but absolutely stupid at times. I’ve chronicled my frustrations with this team and how good they could be but they have a history of struggling against the more intelligent teams in the LPL and FPX are exactly that.

I know if feels really weird betting so heavily against a storied team like JDG but the fact of the matter is that they just aren’t playing good League of Legends right now and frankly they haven’t been for most of the Summer despite their record. FPX are one of the elite teams in the league and I have JDG almost two tiers lower since I don’t even have them in that A tier anymore with how they’re playing (ok maybe the bottom if you’re optimistic…).

Back the favorites and FPX first tower or first herald, your choice. JDG have an abysmal 27.27% first tower and 36.36% first herald rate this season compared to FPX’s 75% and 62.5%. I prefer the first tower.

My Picks:

Moneyline: FPX -233 (2.33 units)

Map Spread: FPX -1.5 maps @ +125 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 1 FPX first tower @ -172 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 FPX first tower @ -172 (1 unit)

 


LCK Summer 2021

Week Eight – Day Three

 

 

T1 -385 (-1.5 maps @ -118, +1.5 @ -1429)

vs

Fredit BRION +294 (+1.5 maps @ -109, -1.5 @ +712)

 

Map Moneyline: T1 -286 / BRO +215

Kill Total: 22.5 (over -105 / under -123)

Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -114 / +6.5 @ -115

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 7.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -103 / under -127)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -328 / +242 (map), -580 / +414 (series), -135 / +105 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: T1 series moneyline (light)

Trends
T1 as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) BRO as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 6 5 -344 Matches as Underdogs 4 8 +247
Against Map Spread 4 7 +58 Against Map Spread 10 2 -116
Against Kill Spread 11 15 5.8 Against Kill Spread 17 14 +6
Kill Totals 8 18 23.23 Kill Totals 10 21 22.75
Team Kill Totals 11 15 13.68 Team Kill Totals 17 14 8.75
Game Time Totals 12 14 32.5 Game Time Totals 17 14 32.42
Dragons over 4.5 12 14 Dragons over 4.5 21 10
Towers over 11.5 15 11 Towers over 11.5 12 19

 

 

League Rank T1 Tale of the Tape BRO League Rank
3.0 677.1 Gold Diff @ 10 min -713.7 9.0
1.0 1098.6 Gold Diff @ 15 min -1233.8 10.0
1.0 1477.4 Gold Diff @ 20 min -1848.4 9.0
57.7 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -66.9
1.0 68.2 Gold Diff / min first 20 -29.9 9.0
2.0 166.9 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -46.7 7.0
2.0 1815.4 Gold /min (GPM) 1735.3 9.0
46.2 Gold / min vs Avg -33.9
2.0 89.8 Gold Diff / min -33.0 8.0
2.0 1.3 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -0.5 8.0
1.0 1653.7 Kill Agnostic GPM 1598.7 8.0
2.0 57.3 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -33.6 9.0
7.0 1918.2 GPM in wins 1919.9 6.0
4.0 325.0 Gold Diff per min in wins 291.6 6.0
1.0 1685.3 GPM in losses 1578.4 10.0
1.0 -208.1 Gold Diff per min in losses -309.0 5.0
90.4 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -32.4
7.0 1.5 Win-Adjusted GPM 3.2 6.0
4.0 23.2 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -10.2 6.0
8.0 48.1 Dragon Control % 59.0 1.0
5.0 53.0 Herald Control % 38.9 8.0
5.0 54.9 Baron Control % 37.5 9.0
11.0 Quality Wins? 9.0
57.9 % of wins as Quality 47.4

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 54.349%
2 1 28.564%
1 2 10.181%
0 2 6.905%
(Series Win): 82.913%

I’ve talked a lot about the parity in the LCK and while I think it’s been ugly for some of the heavier favorites they are the class of this league. I don’t see a way T1 lose this series but this number if heavy handed in an LCK that’s brought a lot of surprises and Brion tend to elevate against the better teams as added reasoning for dodging this bullet.

Brion are still live to make playoffs although they need some help from the teams ahead of them at this point. KT losing was part of that so maybe they’re galvanized. T1 aren’t out of the woods yet either and haven’t even clinched playoffs yet despite being 8-6. A win here would go quite a way toward that (it might actually mathematically lock them).

I think T1 win this but Brion are going to throw everything they have at it. My favorite plays in this contest are the “map one” narrative we’ve been playing as well as Brion first dragon which has been extremely profitable for us all season.

 

My Picks:

Prop: Map 1 Brion first dragon @ -109 (1.5 units)

Prop: Map 2 Brion first dragon @ -109 (1.5 units)

Map 1 angles:

Kill Total (alt): Map 1 UNDER 21.5 @ -104 (1.04 units)

Time Total: Map 1 OVER 33:00 @ -103 (1.03 units)

Kill Spread: Map 1 Brion +6.5 kills @ -115 (1.15 units)

 

 


 

DRX +293 (+1.5 maps @ +110, -1.5 @ +615)

vs

Afreeca Freecs -370 (-1.5 maps @ -141, +1.5 @ -1111)

 

Map Moneyline: DRX +196 / AF -263)

Kill Total: 22.5 (over -119 / under -110)

Kill Spread: +5.5 @ -105 / -5.5 @ -123

Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 13.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -114 / under -115)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: +257 / -360 (map), +469 / -646 (series), +114 / -147 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: Afreeca series moneyline

Trends
AF as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) DRX as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 1 2 -177 Matches as Underdogs 1 12 +316
Against Map Spread 0 3 +176 Against Map Spread 5 8 -58
Against Kill Spread 3 5 4.5 Against Kill Spread 13 18 +6
Kill Totals 3 5 23.50 Kill Totals 18 13 22.88
Team Kill Totals 2 6 13.17 Team Kill Totals 12 19 8.58
Game Time Totals 3 5 33.0 Game Time Totals 14 17 32.38
Dragons over 4.5 5 3 Dragons over 4.5 11 20
Towers over 11.5 2 6 Towers over 11.5 14 16

 

 

League Rank AF Tale of the Tape DRX League Rank
8.0 -197.7 Gold Diff @ 10 min -721.5 10.0
6.0 109.4 Gold Diff @ 15 min -1141.1 9.0
7.0 15.1 Gold Diff @ 20 min -1350.8 10.0
-4.0 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -26.9
4.0 7.9 Gold Diff / min first 20 -83.5 10.0
6.0 -32.4 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -560.5 10.0
8.0 1745.0 Gold /min (GPM) 1666.8 10.0
-24.2 Gold / min vs Avg -102.4
6.0 -6.8 Gold Diff / min -230.3 10.0
6.0 -0.1 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -3.2 10.0
6.0 1607.7 Kill Agnostic GPM 1557.9 10.0
6.0 -6.9 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -128.2 10.0
9.0 1878.8 GPM in wins 1846.7 10.0
8.0 275.0 Gold Diff per min in wins 247.3 10.0
5.0 1611.2 GPM in losses 1626.8 4.0
3.0 -288.6 Gold Diff per min in losses -336.4 9.0
-6.2 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -229.6
9.0 -38.0 Win-Adjusted GPM -70.0 10.0
8.0 -26.8 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -54.5 10.0
5.0 51.4 Dragon Control % 31.5 10.0
4.0 54.9 Herald Control % 38.1 9.0
7.0 43.1 Baron Control % 22.2 10.0
7.0 Quality Wins? 1.0
38.9 % of wins as Quality 16.7

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 56.438%
2 1 28.078%
1 2 9.297%
0 2 6.188%
(Series Win): 84.515%

DRX might be ever so slightly better with the new kids in the lineup but this is still a very VERY bad team. There’s a small chance that being mathematically elimianted, the fasted team ever to be so in the LCK by the way, maybe takes some weight off and they loosen up but don’t overthink this one. Afreeca have been very good of late and need this to secure a playoff berth themselves. Expect Afreeca to roll.

 

My Picks:

Moneyline: Afreeca -370 (3.7 units)

Map Spread: Afreeca -1.5 maps @ -141 (0.705 units)

 


LEC Summer 2021

“Super” Week Eight – Day Two

 

SK Gaming +216 vs Misfits -286

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -105 / under -123)

Kill Spread: +7.5 @ -110 / -7.5 @ -123

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 15.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -143 / under +110)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: SK +270 / MSF -381

Model Suggested Play: Misfits moneyline (light)

Trends
MSF as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) SK as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 7 1 -222 Matches as Underdogs 5 11 +204
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 6 2 5.0 Against Kill Spread 9 7 +7
Kill Totals 3 5 25.25 Kill Totals 6 10 26.00
Team Kill Totals 6 2 14.63 Team Kill Totals 9 7 9.75
Game Time Totals 5 3 32.1 Game Time Totals 8 8 31.25
Dragons over 4.5 4 4 Dragons over 4.5 6 10
Towers over 11.5 3 5 Towers over 11.5 9 7

 

League Rank MSF Tale of the Tape SK League Rank
4.0 325.3 Gold Diff @ 10 min -548.1 9.0
2.0 809.3 Gold Diff @ 15 min -757.1 8.0
3.0 555.8 Gold Diff @ 20 min -902.9 8.0
21.8 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -61.6
3.0 50.2 Gold Diff / min first 20 -103.4 8.0
4.0 215.1 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -307.3 9.0
4.0 1820.9 Gold /min (GPM) 1710.3 8.0
34.4 Gold / min vs Avg -76.2
3.0 99.9 Gold Diff / min -150.1 8.0
3.0 1.5 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -2.1 8.0
5.0 1622.9 Kill Agnostic GPM 1561.4 8.0
5.0 44.5 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -102.8 8.0
9.0 1885.0 GPM in wins 1907.7 6.0
7.0 240.2 Gold Diff per min in wins 259.6 6.0
2.0 1692.9 GPM in losses 1611.6 7.0
1.0 -180.6 Gold Diff per min in losses -355.0 9.0
99.9 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -150.2
9.0 -43.6 Win-Adjusted GPM -20.8 6.0
7.0 -50.3 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -30.9 6.0
3.0 60.0 Dragon Control % 49.3 7.0
2.0 63.3 Herald Control % 36.7 9.0
5.0 52.6 Baron Control % 36.8 9.0
5.0 Quality Wins? 2.0
50.0 % of wins as Quality 40.0

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

This is one of those weird counter motivation spots. Misfits could still chase down Rogue for the #1 seed as they’re only a game back and who knows what Vitality can do (more on that next). SK are eliminated and just playing out the final week. They showed up against Astralis so I assume they’ll at least be competitive.

I think Misfits are going to roll in this one regardless of these factors. If you’re going to take a shot on the SK side I think first dragon is your best bet along with a kill spread/moneyline split. IF you think SK make this competitive the over towers/dragons aren’t bad looks eithers. I’m just going to back the Misfits on the moneyline and that’s all.

My Picks:

Moneyline: Misfits -286 (1.43 units)

 

 


 

Team Vitality +216 vs Rogue -286

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -115 / under -114)

Kill Spread: +7.5 @ -128 / -7.5 @ -106

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 16.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -105 / under -123)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: VIT +267 / ROG -365

Model Suggested Play: Rogue moneyline (light)

Trends
ROG as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) VIT as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 12 4 -307 Matches as Underdogs 2 6 +148
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 8 8 6.0 Against Kill Spread 4 4 +5
Kill Totals 8 8 25.94 Kill Totals 7 1 26.88
Team Kill Totals 9 7 15.19 Team Kill Totals 6 2 11.13
Game Time Totals 7 9 31.6 Game Time Totals 5 3 32.00
Dragons over 4.5 7 9 Dragons over 4.5 3 5
Towers over 11.5 10 6 Towers over 11.5 3 5

 

League Rank ROG Tale of the Tape VIT League Rank
2.0 1100.6 Gold Diff @ 10 min -439.5 8.0
1.0 2993.8 Gold Diff @ 15 min -42.2 5.0
1.0 2432.9 Gold Diff @ 20 min -226.5 7.0
114.8 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 3.4
1.0 190.4 Gold Diff / min first 20 -1.0 6.0
1.0 372.3 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -177.0 8.0
2.0 1909.5 Gold /min (GPM) 1764.5 6.0
123.0 Gold / min vs Avg -22.0
1.0 216.5 Gold Diff / min -61.9 7.0
1.0 3.0 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -0.8 6.0
1.0 1691.2 Kill Agnostic GPM 1590.5 6.0
1.0 140.9 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -22.2 6.0
2.0 1989.5 GPM in wins 1986.1 3.0
2.0 383.1 Gold Diff per min in wins 464.8 1.0
3.0 1689.4 GPM in losses 1653.8 6.0
5.0 -241.7 Gold Diff per min in losses -325.3 7.0
216.4 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -62.0
2.0 61.0 Win-Adjusted GPM 57.5 3.0
2.0 92.6 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 174.3 1.0
6.0 50.8 Dragon Control % 54.1 5.0
1.0 70.0 Herald Control % 42.9 7.0
3.0 60.0 Baron Control % 40.0 7.0
9.0 Quality Wins? 4.0
81.8 % of wins as Quality 80.0

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Selfmade went absolutely berserk yesterday and is NOT going down without a fight. Rogue could lock up the #1 seed with a win here and they’re certainly the better team but one of these teams has much more motivation with their entire season on the line in this match and that’s Vitality.

I’m not going to back Vitality here as I really do think Rogue really are that much better than them but the weird motivational angles and general chaos of the final week is going to keep me from backing the favorites here.

My Picks:

no wagers

 


 

G2 Esports -370 vs Schalke +268

 

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -105 / under -123)

Kill Spread: -7.5 @ -128 / +7.5 @ -106

Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -133 / under +102)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: G2 -408 / S04 +293

Model Suggested Play: G2 moneyline (miniscule)

Trends
G2 as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) S04 as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 7 6 -283 Matches as Underdogs 2 8 +188
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 4 9 6.2 Against Kill Spread 3 7 +6
Kill Totals 6 7 27.58 Kill Totals 2 8 26.20
Team Kill Totals 4 9 16.27 Team Kill Totals 2 8 10.20
Game Time Totals 7 6 31.5 Game Time Totals 4 6 32.10
Dragons over 4.5 4 9 Dragons over 4.5 3 7
Towers over 11.5 7 6 Towers over 11.5 9 1

 

League Rank G2 Tale of the Tape S04 League Rank
3.0 404.6 Gold Diff @ 10 min -405.0 7.0
4.0 329.5 Gold Diff @ 15 min -2004.6 10.0
4.0 497.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min -1768.0 10.0
21.1 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -77.2
5.0 19.7 Gold Diff / min first 20 -113.4 9.0
5.0 93.6 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -620.7 10.0
3.0 1847.3 Gold /min (GPM) 1656.0 10.0
60.8 Gold / min vs Avg -130.5
4.0 93.6 Gold Diff / min -239.9 10.0
4.0 1.2 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -3.4 10.0
3.0 1640.9 Kill Agnostic GPM 1535.9 9.0
4.0 60.0 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -141.9 10.0
4.0 1964.1 GPM in wins 1897.3 7.0
5.0 303.5 Gold Diff per min in wins 205.9 9.0
5.0 1672.2 GPM in losses 1595.7 9.0
4.0 -221.3 Gold Diff per min in losses -351.3 8.0
93.5 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -239.9
4.0 35.6 Win-Adjusted GPM -31.3 7.0
5.0 13.0 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -84.6 9.0
1.0 63.5 Dragon Control % 28.1 10.0
10.0 26.9 Herald Control % 46.7 6.0
2.0 62.5 Baron Control % 27.8 10.0
6.0 Quality Wins? 1.0
66.7 % of wins as Quality 33.3

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

I have a bit of a weird feeling about this. Schalke have been the “king slayers” as an organization and have specifically flummoxed G2 over the past few years. Obviously those Schalke teams were much better than this one but I have to think that this organization is going to want to leave their mark in their last weekend in the LEC as a team. If there is a single game that Schalke is going to “get up” for it’ll be this one.

While this iteration of G2 hasn’t been as inclined to do so, G2 are known to mess around a little when there isn’t that much on the line. They’ve already clinched playoffs and it would take some work for them to really jump up the standings at this point so there’s a chance this is a “for fun” game for them.

This match has random upset written all over it for me. It’s a bit narrative street-y for my taste but I think it’s worth a play on the dogs and neutral overs here. The model flagged the kill total under as a very strong double digit advantage on the market price but that whole “for fun” potential is going to make me avoid playing the unders.

My Picks:

Kill Spread: Schalke +7.5 kills @ -106 (1.06 units)

Moneyline: Schalke +270 (0.25 units)

Prop: OVER 12.5 towers @ +157 (1 unit)

 


 

Fnatic +101 vs MAD Lions -128

 

Kill Total: 29.5 (over -110 / under -118)

Kill Spread: +0.5 @ -118 / -0.5 @ -114

Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 14.5 (weird I know)

Time Total: 32:00 (over -109 / under -119)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: FNC -179 / MAD +139

Model Suggested Play: Fnatic moneyline (strong)

Trends
MAD as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) FNC as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 9 4 -327 Matches as Underdogs 3 2 +101
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 3 10 6.4 Against Kill Spread 4 1 +5
Kill Totals 8 5 26.81 Kill Totals 4 1 28.70
Team Kill Totals 3 10 15.96 Team Kill Totals 4 1 11.90
Game Time Totals 10 3 31.2 Game Time Totals 1 4 31.80
Dragons over 4.5 6 7 Dragons over 4.5 0 5
Towers over 11.5 10 3 Towers over 11.5 4 1

 

League Rank MAD Tale of the Tape FNC League Rank
5.0 32.0 Gold Diff @ 10 min 1113.8 1.0
7.0 -406.3 Gold Diff @ 15 min 766.1 3.0
5.0 -607.1 Gold Diff @ 20 min 129.3 2.0
10.8 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 88.8
4.0 44.4 Gold Diff / min first 20 83.4 2.0
3.0 216.3 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 339.8 2.0
5.0 1819.8 Gold /min (GPM) 1912.0 1.0
33.3 Gold / min vs Avg 125.5
5.0 86.7 Gold Diff / min 161.1 2.0
5.0 1.2 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 2.2 2.0
4.0 1634.9 Kill Agnostic GPM 1655.1 2.0
3.0 74.1 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 107.6 2.0
8.0 1892.5 GPM in wins 1997.8 1.0
8.0 236.1 Gold Diff per min in wins 340.9 3.0
4.0 1674.4 GPM in losses 1740.3 1.0
3.0 -212.2 Gold Diff per min in losses -198.6 2.0
86.6 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 161.1
8.0 -36.0 Win-Adjusted GPM 69.3 1.0
8.0 -54.4 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 50.4 3.0
4.0 56.1 Dragon Control % 63.2 2.0
4.0 56.7 Herald Control % 60.7 3.0
3.0 60.0 Baron Control % 73.7 1.0
3.0 Quality Wins? 6.0
30.0 % of wins as Quality 60.0

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

The wrong team is favored here but somebody out in the market thinks that MAD Lions is the right side after this got hit on the opener Sunday. I don’t agree.

I know MAD Lions have pulled out a few come from behind wins against teams like Rogue in the past couple of weeks but this assumption that this team will just automatically round into playoff form is rather presumptuous to me. MAD Lions are still living on price memory. They haven’t been that good this season. A top five team? Absolutely, but perhaps the worst of the bunch. Just look at the Tale of the Tape above which doesn’t include the shellacking by G2 yesterday by the way.

There’s an outside chance that one or both of these teams sort of mail this in if one doesn’t think the seeding or standings particularly matter but this should be a competitive, playoff atmosphere game.

 

My Picks:

Moneyline: Fnatic +101 (1 unit)

Prop: Fnatic first herald @ -133 (1 unit)

Prop: OVER 12.5 towers @ +124 (1 unit)

 


 

Astralis +104 vs Excel -126

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -127 / under -104)

Kill Spread: +1.5 @ -117 / -1.5 @ -113

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 12.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -135 / under -107)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: AST +158 / XL -195

Model Suggested Play: Excel moneyline

Trends
XL as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) AST as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 0 3 -150 Matches as Underdogs 5 9 +222
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 0 3 3.5 Against Kill Spread 9 5 +7
Kill Totals 1 2 24.83 Kill Totals 6 8 26.29
Team Kill Totals 0 3 13.17 Team Kill Totals 10 4 9.93
Game Time Totals 1 2 32.3 Game Time Totals 8 6 31.64
Dragons over 4.5 0 3 Dragons over 4.5 7 7
Towers over 11.5 1 2 Towers over 11.5 7 7

 

League Rank XL Tale of the Tape AST League Rank
6.0 -60.8 Gold Diff @ 10 min -1224.0 10.0
6.0 -82.2 Gold Diff @ 15 min -1922.7 9.0
6.0 671.9 Gold Diff @ 20 min -1967.8 9.0
-51.9 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -69.9
7.0 -48.1 Gold Diff / min first 20 -129.2 10.0
6.0 -105.4 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -116.1 7.0
7.0 1724.3 Gold /min (GPM) 1700.4 9.0
-62.2 Gold / min vs Avg -86.1
6.0 -54.3 Gold Diff / min -151.1 9.0
7.0 -0.8 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -2.1 9.0
7.0 1562.2 Kill Agnostic GPM 1529.9 10.0
7.0 -45.8 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -113.8 9.0
5.0 1918.2 GPM in wins 1847.1 10.0
4.0 312.0 Gold Diff per min in wins 159.0 10.0
10.0 1595.1 GPM in losses 1602.5 8.0
6.0 -298.5 Gold Diff per min in losses -357.8 10.0
-54.4 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -151.1
5.0 -10.3 Win-Adjusted GPM -81.4 10.0
4.0 21.5 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -131.5 10.0
9.0 32.3 Dragon Control % 38.7 8.0
4.0 56.7 Herald Control % 40.0 8.0
5.0 52.6 Baron Control % 37.5 8.0
2.0 Quality Wins? 0.0
33.3 % of wins as Quality 0.0

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

I’m going to keep fading the Astralis team. Excel have been the better team since switching to their current roster iteration and even though I’ve liked their approach to drafts, they’ve been extremely lucky to have pulled out as many of these games as they have. It’s like the person that keeps flirting with death and getting away with it.

This is a season defining series for both teams. Astralis win and they’re into playoffs. Excel win and they would tie Astralis and decide their fate tomorrow or potentially with a tiebreaker (since the head-to-head would not be tied 1-1). This is going to be very tense. I like the under kill total, over towers, and Excel outright.

My Picks:

Moneyline: Excel -126 (1.26 units)

Prop: OVER 12.5 towers @ +164 (1 unit)

Kill Total: UNDER 24.5 @ -104 (1.04 units)

 

 

 

 


LCS Summer 2021

Week Nine – Day Two

 

 

 

100 Thieves -256 vs Golden Guardians +193

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -114 / under -114)

Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -119 / +6.5 @ -110

Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -143 / under +109)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: 100T -259 / GGS +197

Model Suggested Play: none

Trends
100T as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) GGS as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 14 8 -299 Matches as Underdogs 9 14 +231
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 10 12 6.0 Against Kill Spread 14 9 +7
Kill Totals 9 13 24.45 Kill Totals 17 6 24.93
Team Kill Totals 8 14 14.50 Team Kill Totals 17 6 9.07
Game Time Totals 11 11 31.8 Game Time Totals 12 11 31.22
Dragons over 4.5 10 12 Dragons over 4.5 11 12
Towers over 11.5 14 8 Towers over 11.5 17 6

 

League Rank 100T Tale of the Tape GGS League Rank
5 243.6 Gold Diff @ 10 min -779.8 8
2 1328.3 Gold Diff @ 15 min -107.1 7
3 930.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min -508.5 7
34.0 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -3.5
2 104.9 Gold Diff / min first 20 -24.5 7
2 229.3 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -84.1 7
3 1810.1 Gold /min (GPM) 1793.4 5
19.7 Gold / min vs Avg 3.0
3 135.3 Gold Diff / min -98.2 8
2 1.9 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -1.2 8
4 1621.0 Kill Agnostic GPM 1614.6 5
2 91.0 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -49.0 7
10 1529.9 Opp Kill Agnostic GPM 1663.6 1
8 1901.1 GPM in wins 1913.6 6
5 326.7 Gold Diff per min in wins 273.3 7
9 1589.2 GPM in losses 1721.3 1
7 -329.5 Gold Diff per min in losses -321.2 6
132.8 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -100.7
8 -40.6 Win-Adjusted GPM -28.1 6
5 27.8 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -25.5 7
3 56.9 Dragon Control % 58.7 1
4 53.5 Herald Control % 63.0 2
4 54.8 Baron Control % 34.4 10
12.0 Quality Wins? 3.0
70.6 % of wins as Quality 33.3

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

100T are battling to maintain a top two seed while Golden Guardians are battling for their season with FlyQuest as the other challenger for the 8th and final playoff seed.

If you think 100T just dominate this match then the way to play them is through first tower at -179 which is a cheap price. If you think this is competitive or are neutral then Golden Guardians and/or the over 12.5 towers is the way to play it. I’ll be on the latter.

My Picks:

Prop. Golden Guardians first herald @ +121 (1 unit)

Prop: OVER 12.5 towers @ +140 (1 unit)

 


 

Dignitas +222 vs Cloud 9 -303

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -106 / under -122)

Kill Spread: +7.5 @ -125 / -7.5 @ -104

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 15.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -137 / under +105)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: C9 -246 / DIG +186

Model Suggested Play: DIG moneyline (light)

Trends
C9 as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) DIG as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 12 10 -323 Matches as Underdogs 6 12 +153
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 11 11 6.0 Against Kill Spread 10 8 +5
Kill Totals 9 13 24.64 Kill Totals 8 10 25.28
Team Kill Totals 12 10 14.68 Team Kill Totals 10 8 10.17
Game Time Totals 12 10 31.1 Game Time Totals 8 10 31.83
Dragons over 4.5 12 10 Dragons over 4.5 6 12
Towers over 11.5 14 8 Towers over 11.5 7 11

 

League Rank C9 Tale of the Tape DIG League Rank
3 602.9 Gold Diff @ 10 min -66.7 6
4 397.4 Gold Diff @ 15 min -86.4 6
4 418.1 Gold Diff @ 20 min 10.6 6
26.1 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -5.8
3 54.0 Gold Diff / min first 20 -23.0 6
1 363.0 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -151.4 8
2 1894.6 Gold /min (GPM) 1737.8 8
104.1 Gold / min vs Avg -52.7
2 136.4 Gold Diff / min -65.6 7
3 1.8 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -0.9 7
2 1688.7 Kill Agnostic GPM 1554.5 8
3 82.9 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -69.3 8
6 1605.8 Opp Kill Agnostic GPM 1623.7 4
1 2090.7 GPM in wins 1919.8 5
1 423.8 Gold Diff per min in wins 327.7 4
2 1662.8 GPM in losses 1607.8 7
1 -203.1 Gold Diff per min in losses -346.5 9
133.9 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -68.1
1 149.1 Win-Adjusted GPM -21.9 5
1 124.9 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 28.8 4
5 51.3 Dragon Control % 46.7 8
7 47.9 Herald Control % 53.2 5
3 57.6 Baron Control % 37.0 9
11.0 Quality Wins? 5.0
84.6 % of wins as Quality 50.0

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Too rich a price to pay even though Cloud 9 likely win this contest. While there’s a chance we see a little clowning around here, this is a Perkz team after all, I wouldn’t rely one way or the other on it. Favorite play in this one is Dignitas first herald at +123. Cloud 9 hold a 33.33% rate to Dignitas’ 58.33% first herald rate for the season.

My Picks:

Prop: Dignitas first herald @ +123 (1 unit)

 


 

Immortals -154 vs FlyQuest +121

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -104 / under -123)

Kill Spread: -3.5 @ -118 / +3.5 @ -111

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 10.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -135 / under +104)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: IMT -202 / FLY +155

Model Suggested Play: Immortals moneyline (light)

Trends
IMT as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) FLY as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 8 3 -155 Matches as Underdogs 7 15 +166
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 8 3 3.2 Against Kill Spread 9 13 +6
Kill Totals 5 6 24.50 Kill Totals 9 13 24.86
Team Kill Totals 5 6 13.14 Team Kill Totals 10 12 9.77
Game Time Totals 4 7 32.0 Game Time Totals 9 13 31.68
Dragons over 4.5 7 4 Dragons over 4.5 11 11
Towers over 11.5 7 4 Towers over 11.5 15 7

 

League Rank IMT Tale of the Tape FLY League Rank
7 -228.3 Gold Diff @ 10 min -989.8 10
8 -529.6 Gold Diff @ 15 min -2764.5 10
8 -1148.9 Gold Diff @ 20 min -2428.1 10
5.3 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -62.5
8 -39.3 Gold Diff / min first 20 -170.7 10
6 78.7 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -274.5 9
6 1780.1 Gold /min (GPM) 1707.5 9
-10.4 Gold / min vs Avg -83.0
6 -4.5 Gold Diff / min -176.1 9
6 -0.1 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -2.4 9
7 1599.6 Kill Agnostic GPM 1546.8 9
6 -21.0 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -110.1 9
5 1620.6 Opp Kill Agnostic GPM 1656.9 3
7 1911.3 GPM in wins 1890.6 9
8 255.9 Gold Diff per min in wins 184.2 10
5 1625.1 GPM in losses 1561.0 10
5 -312.2 Gold Diff per min in losses -464.2 10
-7.0 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -178.6
7 -30.4 Win-Adjusted GPM -51.1 9
8 -42.9 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -114.7 10
7 48.7 Dragon Control % 40.0 9
9 39.6 Herald Control % 44.4 8
6 50.0 Baron Control % 50.0 6
6.0 Quality Wins? 2.0
46.2 % of wins as Quality 50.0

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Again another tricky motivation spot. Immortals are locked into playoffs but are basically only battling to catch up to Dignitas. This matters because it would put them into the upper bracket but there’s a chance they just sandbag or even show something weird to flex for playoffs, plant the seed of doubt so to speak in other teams.  FlyQuest on the other hand are battling for their lives to fend off the Golden Guardians and a win here would go a long way toward that.  Golden Guardians owns the head-to-head tiebreaker.

Immortals looked really sharp last weekend and back in form. My instinct tells me we see that again instead of any sort of clowning around unless teams would rather face Flyquest in a potential playoff situation than Golden Guardians.

There’s enough unknowns here that I’m not going to wager on the side even though it looks cheap to me. Keep in mind these numbers are all using just FlyQuest since the main roster swap.

No plays for me on this one.

 

My Picks:

no wagers

 


 

CLG +242 vs TSM -333

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -110 / under -119)

Kill Spread: +7.5 2 -119 / -7.5 @ -110

Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 15.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -105 / under -123)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: CLG +312 / TSM -442

Model Suggested Play: TSM moneyline (light)

Trends
TSM as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) CLG as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 12 7 -254 Matches as Underdogs 4 16 +167
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 7 12 5.3 Against Kill Spread 6 14 +5
Kill Totals 6 13 24.24 Kill Totals 8 12 24.70
Team Kill Totals 6 13 14.08 Team Kill Totals 6 14 9.65
Game Time Totals 8 11 32.2 Game Time Totals 12 8 31.80
Dragons over 4.5 8 11 Dragons over 4.5 12 8
Towers over 11.5 12 7 Towers over 11.5 13 7

 

 

League Rank TSM Tale of the Tape CLG League Rank
4 326.9 Gold Diff @ 10 min -844.8 9
5 80.0 Gold Diff @ 15 min -1422.2 9
5 42.3 Gold Diff @ 20 min -2131.4 9
0.7 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -66.2
5 27.5 Gold Diff / min first 20 -79.1 9
5 104.3 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -385.1 10
7 1773.5 Gold /min (GPM) 1674.5 10
-17.0 Gold / min vs Avg -116.0
5 46.5 Gold Diff / min -177.2 10
5 0.6 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -2.5 10
6 1611.5 Kill Agnostic GPM 1546.7 10
5 32.1 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -113.8 10
9 1579.4 Opp Kill Agnostic GPM 1660.5 2
10 1860.5 GPM in wins 1923.5 4
9 201.9 Gold Diff per min in wins 287.0 6
6 1618.5 GPM in losses 1591.5 8
3 -241.3 Gold Diff per min in losses -331.9 8
44.0 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -179.7
10 -81.2 Win-Adjusted GPM -18.2 4
9 -96.9 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -11.8 6
2 57.5 Dragon Control % 39.8 10
3 55.3 Herald Control % 31.9 10
1 67.6 Baron Control % 47.2 8
6.0 Quality Wins? 5.0
37.5 % of wins as Quality 83.3

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

TSM could secure the #1 seed with one more win this weekend and this would be the spot to do it. CLG are out and done but we’ve seen from them that they’re consummate professionals and even after an embarrassing, gut wrenching loss a few weeks ago that they picked themselves up and played it out so don’t rule them out here.

The model flagged the time total OVER 32 as a slight advantage as well as CLG first dragon. I looked at the over 4.5 dragons as well. The biggest of these advantages as CLG first dragon. I’m hesitant to bet dragon overs right now because teams have been ignoring the first drakes for awhile in a lot of games so if you get a game that ends anywhere in that 28-33 minute mark it’s not uncommon to not go over drakes anymore so I’ll opt for a play on CLG first drag.

My Picks:

Prop: CLG first dragon @ +118 (1 unit)


 

Evil Geniuses -104 vs Team Liquid -125

 

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -114 / under -114)

Kill Spread: +0.5 @ -116 / -0.5 @ -112

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 12.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -127 / under -103)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: EG -175 / TL +132

Model Suggested Play: Evil Geniuses moneyline (very strong)

Trends
TL as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) EG as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 14 5 -280 Matches as Underdogs 7 3 +133
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 12 7 6.1 Against Kill Spread 8 2 +5
Kill Totals 10 9 24.50 Kill Totals 5 5 25.50
Team Kill Totals 13 6 14.55 Team Kill Totals 6 4 10.70
Game Time Totals 12 7 31.6 Game Time Totals 4 6 32.10
Dragons over 4.5 9 10 Dragons over 4.5 5 5
Towers over 11.5 9 10 Towers over 11.5 5 5

 

 

League Rank TL Tale of the Tape EG League Rank
2 768.4 Gold Diff @ 10 min 1160.5 1
3 1228.3 Gold Diff @ 15 min 2031.6 1
2 1416.3 Gold Diff @ 20 min 2306.8 1
16.1 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 55.9
4 44.8 Gold Diff / min first 20 107.6 1
4 141.6 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 156.3 3
4 1807.6 Gold /min (GPM) 1925.6 1
17.1 Gold / min vs Avg 135.2
4 72.1 Gold Diff / min 156.3 1
4 1.0 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 2.2 1
3 1631.9 Kill Agnostic GPM 1707.2 1
4 46.1 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 105.6 1
8 1585.8 Opp Kill Agnostic GPM 1601.6 7
3 1942.1 GPM in wins 2063.5 2
2 363.4 Gold Diff per min in wins 344.5 3
4 1648.5 GPM in losses 1649.9 3
4 -272.1 Gold Diff per min in losses -220.2 2
69.6 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 153.7
3 0.4 Win-Adjusted GPM 121.8 2
2 64.5 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 45.6 3
6 50.9 Dragon Control % 54.0 4
6 48.9 Herald Control % 64.6 1
5 53.3 Baron Control % 58.8 2
10.0 Quality Wins? 10.0
76.9 % of wins as Quality 62.5

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

We mentioned this on the cast this week but I have absolutely no idea why Team Liquid is favored in this spot at all. Liquid are a fine team but EG have been the best team in the LCS and I don’t know if this is just some weird price memory or ELO rating situation going on here but this is a slam dunk EG spot.

My Picks:

Moneyline: EG -104 (2.08 units)

Prop: EG first herald @ -116 (1.16 units)

 

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and you can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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