Friday, July 23rd Recap

 

TOP vs Rogue Warriors (no action)

FunPlus vs Suning (Net: +2.553 units)

 

KT Rolster vs Hanwha Life (Net: +1.985 units)

Nongshim vs Brion (Net: +0.32 units)

 

Schalke vs Excel (Net: +0.87 units)

Vitality vs Misfits (Net: +0.649 units)

MAD Lions vs Astralis (no action)

G2 vs SK Gaming (Net: -1.0 units)

Fnatic vs Rogue (Net: -1.0 units)

 

100 Thieves vs Cloud 9 (Net: -1.0 units)

TSM vs Evil Geniuses (Net: +2.06 units)

FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (Net: -1.0 units)

Golden Guardians vs CLG (Net: -1.45 units)

Immortals vs Dignitas (Net: -1.0 units)

 

 

LPL Net Total: +2.553 units

LCK Net Total: +2.305 units

LEC Net Total: -0.481 units

LCS Net Total: -2.39 units

 

Live: +1.0 units

Parlays: -1.75 units

 

Daily Net Total: +1.237 units

 

 


LPL Summer 2021

Week Seven – Day Six

 

 

UltraPrime +477 (+1.5 maps @ +142, -1.5 @ +1150)

vs

RareAtom -769 (-1.5 maps @ -182)

 

Map Moneyline: UP +329 / RA -476

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -114 / under -114)

Kill Spread: +8.5 @ -104 / -8.5 @ -125

Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 16.5

Time Total: 30:00 (over -114 / under -114)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: +259 / -356 (map), +442 / -692 (series), +115 / -146 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: UP +1.5 maps (light)

Starters:

UP- Zs, H4cker, Xiaocaobao, Smlz, ShiauC

RA – Cube, Leyan, FoFo, iBoy, Hang

Trends
RA as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) UP as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 5 2 -886 Matches as Underdogs 0 4 +481
Against Map Spread 3 4 -109 Against Map Spread 1 3 -39
Against Kill Spread 7 11 7.6 Against Kill Spread 4 5 +8
Kill Totals 8 10 25.21 Kill Totals 8 1 25.25
Team Kill Totals 7 11 15.93 Team Kill Totals 7 2 8.50
Game Time Totals 9 9 30.1 Game Time Totals 5 4 29.75
Dragons over 4.5 9 9 Dragons over 4.5 4 5
Towers over 11.5 6 12 Towers over 11.5 6 3
League Rank RA Tale of the Tape UP League Rank
3 710.2 Gold Diff @ 10 min -443.3 13
6 509.8 Gold Diff @ 15 min -1181.7 15
5 -12.3 Gold Diff @ 20 min -837.5 14
27.9 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -10.2
6 80.8 Gold Diff / min first 20 -53.8 12
11 263.3 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -205.4 17
11 1802.2 Gold /min (GPM) 1720.1 14
13.9 Gold / min vs Avg -68.1
7 67.9 Gold Diff / min -152.2 14
7 1.0 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -2.1 14
8 1620.8 Kill Agnostic GPM 1562.4 13
6 49.1 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -79.3 13
13 1924.8 GPM in wins 1938.2 11
12 311.4 Gold Diff per min in wins 347.5 9
12 1607.9 GPM in losses 1632.9 9
9 -317.6 Gold Diff per min in losses -352.0 13
73.4 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -146.6
13 -26.4 Win-Adjusted GPM -13.0 11
12 -13.2 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 23.0 9
4 55.5 Dragon Control % 49.2 11
3 60.7 Herald Control % 35.7 17
12 51.3 Baron Control % 38.5 14
10.0 Quality Wins? 5.0
52.6 % of wins as Quality 62.5

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 56.376%
2 1 28.093%
1 2 9.323%
0 2 6.208%
(Series Win): 84.469%

I think RA probably take care of business here but the only actionable positions I’m showing are UP first tower and first dragon, the latter of which I’m somewhat interested given the large number considering they pick this up in more than 57% of their games. My concern for UP here is simply that they just get lane kingdom’d out of this game and none of this matters.

This is kind of the last opportunity for UltraPrime to make a miracle run for playoffs. A loss here would, I believe, mathematically eliminate them from contention. So there’s a chance that they really get up and throw the kitchen sink at this one but it’s not like this is a bad motivation spot for RareAtom either who are fighting to maintain a top four spot.

I’m just passing on this one. If I absolutely had to take a position it’d be the RA -1.5 maps.

My Picks:

no wagers

 


 

JD Gaming +156 (+1.5 mpas @ -196, -1.5 @ +398)

vs

Royal Never Give Up -200 (-1.5 maps @ +152, +1.5 @ -625)

 

Map Moneyline: JDG +136 / RNG -175

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -112 / under -116)

Kill Spread: +4.5 @ -114 / -4.5 @ -115

Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 14.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -123 / under -105)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: +127 / -163 (map), +152 / -195 (series), -215 / +165 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: none

Starters:

JDG – Zoom, Kanavi, Yagao, LokeN, LvMao

RNG – Xiaohu, Wei, Cryin, GALA, Ming

Trends
RNG as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) JDG as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 5 3 -1300 Matches as Underdogs 2 1 +171
Against Map Spread 5 3 -74 Against Map Spread 2 1 -203
Against Kill Spread 9 9 7.5 Against Kill Spread 4 3 +4
Kill Totals 10 8 25.75 Kill Totals 6 1 26.50
Team Kill Totals 9 9 15.88 Team Kill Totals 3 4 11.83
Game Time Totals 6 12 29.9 Game Time Totals 3 4 32.00
Dragons over 4.5 6 12 Dragons over 4.5 3 4
Towers over 11.5 8 10 Towers over 11.5 3 4

 

 

League Rank Royal Never GU Tale of the Tape JDG League Rank
4 676.0 Gold Diff @ 10 min 172.3 6
3 1840.1 Gold Diff @ 15 min -213.8 10
3 2912.5 Gold Diff @ 20 min 12.5 11
53.9 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 36.1
3 58.3 Gold Diff / min first 20 13.4 4
9 356.4 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 375.4 8
3 1868.1 Gold /min (GPM) 1843.3 5
79.9 Gold / min vs Avg 55.1
4 108.9 Gold Diff / min 63.7 8
4 1.6 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 0.9 9
2 1658.6 Kill Agnostic GPM 1622.3 7
3 88.1 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 36.1 7
5 1985.8 GPM in wins 1983.9 6
5 364.5 Gold Diff per min in wins 335.4 10
2 1679.7 GPM in losses 1656.0 5
8 -300.1 Gold Diff per min in losses -298.5 7
114.4 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 69.3
5 34.6 Win-Adjusted GPM 32.7 6
5 39.9 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 10.8 10
10 49.6 Dragon Control % 52.4 7
6 55.8 Herald Control % 36.4 16
10 51.4 Baron Control % 61.1 4
10.0 Quality Wins? 9.0
62.5 % of wins as Quality 56.3

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 34.727%
2 1 28.525%
1 2 19.880%
0 2 16.867%
(Series Win): 63.253%

We talked a lot about this one on the podcast last night, mostly that JDG are like the disappointing child that had so much potential. The fact of the matter is that JDG is still a very good League of Legends team but they’re just straight up dumb as nails and play the game like barbarians which is frustrating. Their players are so good that they’re so used to getting away with poor decisions by just playing their way out of a paper bag that it almost reinforces what they’re doing as correct when it isn’t.

I like JDG, they’re a good team but RNG are a TERRIBLE stylistic matchup for them. RNG are one of the intelligent adults in the room in the LPL and they eat teams that make dumb mistakes like this for breakfast. I also think the way they play the game in general is just very strong right now with split pushing options available and they’re a much stronger herald team than JDG are (JDG 16th in the league in herald control).

The side has sailed, I got it earlier in the week at -172 but since that wasn’t available upon writing this I can’t recommend going up to this new price. No play on the sides, however I absolutely love the RNG first tower here. Not only do RNG have a significantly higher herald control rate and first herald rate, but JDG have an abysmal 32.1% first tower rate this season. Lay the juice on first tower for RNG.

Kill total overs and time total unders were flagged in this contest also, both with substantial edges but I think they somewhat conflict. I prefer the time total under over the kill overs but I prefer the first tower play to both of them and I’m trying to be more selective.

My Picks:

Prop: Map 1 RNG first tower @ -159 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 RNG first tower @ -159 (1 unit)

 

 


Team WE +304 (+1.5 maps @ -105, -1.5 @ +750)

vs

EDward Gaming -435 (-1.5 maps @ -120)

 

Map Moneyline: WE +222 / EDG -303

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -112 / under -116)

Kill Spread: +7.5 @ -109 / -7.5 @ -120

Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 15.5

Time Total: 30:00 (over -159 / under +121)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: +123 / -159 (map), +145 / -188 (series), -223 / +172 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: WE +1.5 maps, series moneyline, and -1.5 maps (very strong)

Starters:

WE- Breathe, Beishang, Shanks, Elk, Missing

EDG – Flandre, Clearlove, Scout, Viper, Meiko

Trends
EDG as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) WE as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 10 2 -1553 Matches as Underdogs 2 2 +116
Against Map Spread 9 3 -85 Against Map Spread 2 2 -273
Against Kill Spread 17 8 8.0 Against Kill Spread 4 6 +3
Kill Totals 13 12 25.42 Kill Totals 5 5 26.50
Team Kill Totals 13 12 16.25 Team Kill Totals 4 6 12.00
Game Time Totals 14 11 30.5 Game Time Totals 5 5 31.00
Dragons over 4.5 10 15 Dragons over 4.5 5 5
Towers over 11.5 10 15 Towers over 11.5 5 5

 

League Rank EDG Tale of the Tape WE League Rank
2 953.6 Gold Diff @ 10 min 595.1 5
1 2386.9 Gold Diff @ 15 min 1894.2 2
1 3312.5 Gold Diff @ 20 min 2262.5 4
77.4 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 33.8
2 173.8 Gold Diff / min first 20 58.4 5
1 527.7 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 270.9 10
2 1904.7 Gold /min (GPM) 1823.5 6
116.4 Gold / min vs Avg 35.3
1 256.5 Gold Diff / min 68.9 6
1 3.6 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 1.0 6
3 1647.2 Kill Agnostic GPM 1610.4 10
1 125.7 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 35.3 8
8 1969.5 GPM in wins 1949.9 9
2 383.4 Gold Diff per min in wins 360.4 6
8 1645.2 GPM in losses 1655.0 6
3 -251.0 Gold Diff per min in losses -319.6 10
262.1 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 74.4
8 18.3 Win-Adjusted GPM -1.3 9
2 58.9 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 35.8 6
1 65.0 Dragon Control % 50.0 9
4 60.0 Herald Control % 62.5 2
2 64.7 Baron Control % 51.7 9
13.0 Quality Wins? 9.0
65.0 % of wins as Quality 56.3

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 33.884%
2 1 28.320%
1 2 20.332%
0 2 17.464%
(Series Win): 62.204%

 

So the big news on this one is that we’re going to get to see Hall of Fame jungler Clearlove on the Rift again, perhaps for his last rodeo or maybe for some extended time. For those that are relatively new to the scene, Clearlove is one of the best junglers of all time. We haven’t seen him play on stage since 2019 and while his form was still excellent it was beginning to wane a bit.

It’s tough trying to figure out what to make of this. While EDG have locked playoffs, they have not locked up a bye round yet so I wonder if there’s actually something to this decision other than publicity and respect. Maybe Clearlove has been killing it in practice and they wanted to give Jiejie a break? It’s also very difficult to tell how this will affect how EDG as a team function. Does this change their identity? Is there a unique pick we’re going to see? There’s just a lot of unknowns.

If I had to guess, Clearlove will likely step in and do a fine job in most situations but this is enough of a variable that I’m treading cautiously here.

The thing with WE is that, similar to JDG they’re just straight up dumb as rocks sometimes and it’s infuriating but this teams underlying numbers are still formidable. They also need this match win and have to be extra motivated to want to battle one of the legends of the game. Hell, they might even be embarrassed that EDG are subbing him in here. With the middle of the pack as competitive as it is and and WE’s extremely challenging remaining schedule, every win will count with five squads at the seven win mark, two at eight, and three at six. This top twelve is going to be intense, even Invictus are on the outside looking in.

The model actually liked WE quite a bit even before this announcement. Admittedly the model is much more bullish on WE than I am but it’s rather telling that this is a team that, should they figure out some of those dumb mistakes, SHOULD be a great team. I like the position slightly more with the substitution but it’s not really affecting my general take this the books just floated way too big a number on this one. Opposite motivation angles, a substitution, an underrated team, and a huge number. Perfect storm.

I’ve been trying to stop making exceptions to heavier wagers after looking at how I’ve performed in those spots in the LPL this season but it’s tough to ignore the value here so I’m going slightly overweight.

I’m not messing with derivatives because I’m not sure how the Clearlove substitution affects things stylistically.

 

 

My Picks:

Map Spread: WE +1.5 maps @ -105 (2.1 units)

Moneyline: WE +304 (1 unit)

Map Spread: WE -1.5 maps @ +750 (0.5 units)

 

 

LCK Summer

Week Seven – Day Three

 

DRX +773 (+1.5 maps @ +210, -1.5 @ +1800)

vs

DAMWON Kia Gaming -1429 (-1.5 maps @ -278)

 

Map Moneyline: DRX +467 / DWG -769

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -118 / under -111)

Kill Spread: +9.5 @ -120 / -9.5 @ -109

Team Kill Totals: 6.5 / 16.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -128 / under -101)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: +282 / -399 (map), +525 / -803 (series), +129 / -164 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: DRX +1.5 maps

Trends
DWG as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) DRX as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 6 5 -594 Matches as Underdogs 1 10 +272
Against Map Spread 4 7 -8 Against Map Spread 5 6 -97
Against Kill Spread 11 17 6.3 Against Kill Spread 11 16 +6
Kill Totals 16 12 23.50 Kill Totals 15 12 22.77
Team Kill Totals 15 13 14.32 Team Kill Totals 11 16 8.77
Game Time Totals 19 9 31.2 Game Time Totals 13 14 32.45
Dragons over 4.5 13 15 Dragons over 4.5 10 17
Towers over 11.5 17 11 Towers over 11.5 12 14

 

 

League Rank DWG Tale of the Tape DRX League Rank
7.0 -364.5 Gold Diff @ 10 min -396.9 8.0
8.0 -620.0 Gold Diff @ 15 min -595.8 7.0
9.0 -484.4 Gold Diff @ 20 min -257.1 7.0
-4.9 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -25.9
9.0 -25.8 Gold Diff / min first 20 -52.6 10.0
4.0 56.3 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -471.5 10.0
3.0 1798.4 Gold /min (GPM) 1678.4 10.0
31.6 Gold / min vs Avg -88.4
3.0 56.3 Gold Diff / min -199.7 10.0
3.0 0.8 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -2.8 10.0
4.0 1620.8 Kill Agnostic GPM 1568.6 10.0
3.0 51.0 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -113.1 10.0
5.0 1932.2 GPM in wins 1846.7 10.0
5.0 312.2 Gold Diff per min in wins 247.3 10.0
8.0 1597.8 GPM in losses 1634.5 2.0
7.0 -327.6 Gold Diff per min in losses -316.3 5.0
58.3 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -197.7
5.0 15.0 Win-Adjusted GPM -70.4 10.0
5.0 6.2 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -58.7 10.0
3.0 54.7 Dragon Control % 31.5 10.0
3.0 56.9 Herald Control % 40.0 9.0
1.0 72.1 Baron Control % 24.2 10.0
10.0 Quality Wins? 1.0
55.6 % of wins as Quality 16.7

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 59.151%
2 1 27.316%
1 2 8.201%
0 2 5.331%
(Series Win): 86.468%

As shaky as DAMWON have looked at times this season they’re starting to round into better form of late and this handicap is actually even simpler than that… DRX sucks. Straight up this team is terrible. They’re miles worse than the other 9 teams in this league and the adjustments to mid and bottom lane, while helpful, don’t change the fact that this team has STILL yet to adjust to the current metagame. They might steal a game off of someone here or there but I’m going to eat the chalk and back DAMWON here. I just don’t see any way they lose more than a game out of ten or so.

 

My Picks:

Map Spread: DAMWON -1.5 maps @ -294 (2.94 units)

 


 

Liiv Sandbox +178 (+1.5 maps @ -172, -1.5 @ +427)

vs

T1 -217 (-1.5 maps @ +139)

 

Map Moneyline: LSB +155 / T1 -190

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -113  / under -117)

Kill Spread: +5.5 @ -123 / -5.5 @ -108

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 13.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -112 / under -128)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: +108 / -130 (map), +117 / -142 (series), -271 / +215 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: Sandbox series moneyline, +1.5 maps, -1.5 maps

(odds via Pinnacle)

Trends
T1 as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) LSB as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 6 4 -358 Matches as Underdogs 5 3 +225
Against Map Spread 4 6 +50 Against Map Spread 7 1 -126
Against Kill Spread 10 13 5.8 Against Kill Spread 13 8 +5
Kill Totals 7 16 23.20 Kill Totals 10 11 23.50
Team Kill Totals 9 14 13.70 Team Kill Totals 14 7 9.25
Game Time Totals 12 11 32.5 Game Time Totals 9 12 32.38
Dragons over 4.5 12 11 Dragons over 4.5 9 12
Towers over 11.5 12 11 Towers over 11.5 11 10

 

 

League Rank T1 Tale of the Tape LSB League Rank
1.0 686.6 Gold Diff @ 10 min 338.0 3.0
1.0 1276.2 Gold Diff @ 15 min 1235.6 2.0
1.0 1345.1 Gold Diff @ 20 min 1543.8 2.0
45.2 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 12.6
1.0 67.7 Gold Diff / min first 20 11.5 4.0
2.0 203.7 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 15.1 5.0
2.0 1818.8 Gold /min (GPM) 1785.0 4.0
51.9 Gold / min vs Avg 18.2
2.0 101.1 Gold Diff / min -3.2 5.0
2.0 1.5 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -0.1 5.0
1.0 1656.6 Kill Agnostic GPM 1627.9 3.0
1.0 65.0 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 5.1 4.0
7.0 1918.0 GPM in wins 1934.2 3.0
3.0 322.8 Gold Diff per min in wins 281.1 8.0
1.0 1681.3 GPM in losses 1603.8 6.0
1.0 -205.7 Gold Diff per min in losses -348.5 10.0
103.2 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -1.2
7.0 0.8 Win-Adjusted GPM 17.1 3.0
3.0 16.7 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -24.9 8.0
7.0 49.3 Dragon Control % 52.8 4.0
5.0 53.3 Herald Control % 58.6 2.0
3.0 58.3 Baron Control % 53.3 4.0
10.0 Quality Wins? 7.0
55.6 % of wins as Quality 70.0

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 29.354%
2 1 26.900%
1 2 22.750%
0 2 20.996%
(Series Win): 56.254%

 

Sandbox came off of a big upset win over Gen.G but I don’t think people realize.. wait for it… this team isn’t bad…. T1 meanwhile are coming off an ugly ugly battle against another competitive Afreeca team.

I want to take a minute to just talk about the LCK in general and this oft mentioned “no dominant team” because in some cases that just means the league is competitive. Quite literally the entire LCK besides DRX who fell off a cliff, predictably so I might add, and DAMWON less predictably so, progressed substantially from Spring to Summer. The league is just much better this season all around while the rest of the world has mostly regressed in terms of performance metrics. None of these teams besides DRX are truly awful, even the Fredit Brions and Hanwha Life’s of the world have their strengths and can take games. So maybe we should stop dumping on these top teams losing to other good teams.

Anyway…

The model likes Sandbox here. I also think that while T1 might actually be the best team in the league despite their awful record / performance delta, that this number is too big.

Market edge on Sandbox first tower as well for those interested but a small one. I’ll stick to just the side here.

 

My Picks:

Map Spread: Sandbox +1.5 maps @ -172 (1.72 units)

Moneyline: Sandbox +178 (0.5 units)

Map Spread: Sandbox -1.5 maps @ +427 (0.25 units)

 


 

LEC Summer 2021

Week Seven – Day Two

 

 

 

Team Vitality -196 vs Excel Esports +153

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -106 / under -122)

Kill Spread: -4.5 @ -122 / +4.5 @ -110

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 10.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -116 / under -111)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: VIT -171 / XL +134

Model Suggested Play: Excel moneyline (light)

Trends
VIT as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) XL as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 3 3 -254 Matches as Underdogs 5 6 +214
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 3 3 5.7 Against Kill Spread 9 2 +6
Kill Totals 1 5 25.33 Kill Totals 4 7 25.05
Team Kill Totals 1 5 14.67 Team Kill Totals 7 4 9.41
Game Time Totals 2 4 32.3 Game Time Totals 6 5 31.73
Dragons over 4.5 2 4 Dragons over 4.5 5 6
Towers over 11.5 2 4 Towers over 11.5 6 5

 

League Rank VIT Tale of the Tape XL League Rank
6.0 57.2 Gold Diff @ 10 min -253.7 7.0
5.0 127.9 Gold Diff @ 15 min -532.9 8.0
6.0 -51.8 Gold Diff @ 20 min -222.0 7.0
11.7 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -79.9
6.0 6.7 Gold Diff / min first 20 -72.5 7.0
6.0 -48.8 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -306.4 8.0
6.0 1785.6 Gold /min (GPM) 1679.1 8.0
1.2 Gold / min vs Avg -105.3
6.0 -16.8 Gold Diff / min -119.6 7.0
6.0 -0.1 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -1.7 7.0
6.0 1605.0 Kill Agnostic GPM 1535.7 8.0
6.0 5.8 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -85.7 7.0
2.0 1986.1 GPM in wins 1868.2 9.0
1.0 464.8 Gold Diff per min in wins 282.8 6.0
6.0 1660.3 GPM in losses 1595.1 8.0
6.0 -317.8 Gold Diff per min in losses -298.5 5.0
-16.6 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -119.4
2.0 59.2 Win-Adjusted GPM -58.7 9.0
1.0 169.8 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -12.2 6.0
5.0 52.7 Dragon Control % 33.3 9.0
6.0 50.0 Herald Control % 50.0 6.0
5.0 47.1 Baron Control % 47.1 5.0
4.0 Quality Wins? 1.0
80.0 % of wins as Quality 25.0

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance.)

(Does NOT include yesterday’s performance, didn’t have time to log the games)

I think the first instinct for a lot of people, particularly in our community is to just slam Vitality here but honestly with how hit or miss this team is I don’t trust them as favorites at all and Excel have looked at least a little better recently putting these two teams on opposite trajectories.

This is a critical playoff match. Both of these teams sit at 5-9 along with Astralis and they’re battling for the sixth and final playoff spot. I expect this to be a high pressure, competitive game. Vitality SHOULD win but that’s been the case in a lot of their series as favorites this season.

My favorite play in this isn’t on either side but on  Excel first herald. These teams have the same first herald rate and you’re getting plus money. Excel tend to “sell out” for herald much more often than Vitality are who tend to be a little more well rounded in how they structure their early game plans. The under 4.5 dragons is also a decent look given that both of these teams tend to lose badly when they do lose.

My Picks:

Prop: Excel first herald @ +119 (1 unit)

 


 

Schalke 04 -119 vs Astralis -108

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -119 / under -110)

Kill Spread: +0.5 @ -118 / -0.5 @ -114

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 12.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over +138 / under -182)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: S04 -113 / AST -113 (model makes this a true 50/50)

Model Suggested Play: none

Trends
S04 as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) AST as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 1 4 -173 Matches as Underdogs 4 9 +247
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 0 5 3.7 Against Kill Spread 8 5 +7
Kill Totals 2 3 24.90 Kill Totals 6 7 26.35
Team Kill Totals 1 4 13.70 Team Kill Totals 10 3 9.73
Game Time Totals 1 4 32.4 Game Time Totals 8 5 31.54
Dragons over 4.5 1 4 Dragons over 4.5 7 6
Towers over 11.5 4 1 Towers over 11.5 6 7

 

League Rank S04 Tale of the Tape AST League Rank
9.0 -572.9 Gold Diff @ 10 min -1407.1 10.0
9.0 -1989.6 Gold Diff @ 15 min -2941.4 10.0
9.0 -2093.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min -2755.8 10.0
-78.3 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -84.1
9.0 -105.1 Gold Diff / min first 20 -161.8 10.0
10.0 -595.0 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -165.3 7.0
10.0 1653.9 Gold /min (GPM) 1677.9 9.0
-130.5 Gold / min vs Avg -106.6
10.0 -231.6 Gold Diff / min -190.9 9.0
10.0 -3.3 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -2.7 9.0
9.0 1534.0 Kill Agnostic GPM 1513.7 10.0
9.0 -133.2 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -136.6 10.0
7.0 1897.3 GPM in wins 1827.0 10.0
9.0 205.9 Gold Diff per min in wins 126.7 10.0
10.0 1580.9 GPM in losses 1584.6 9.0
8.0 -362.8 Gold Diff per min in losses -389.4 10.0
-231.3 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -190.7
7.0 -29.6 Win-Adjusted GPM -99.9 10.0
9.0 -89.1 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -168.3 10.0
10.0 27.5 Dragon Control % 34.4 8.0
5.0 53.8 Herald Control % 38.5 8.0
10.0 31.3 Baron Control % 35.0 9.0
1.0 Quality Wins? 0.0
33.3 % of wins as Quality 0.0

 

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

(Does NOT include yesterday’s performance, didn’t have time to log the games)

These are the two worst teams in the LEC in my model and I think I actually agree with it. That said, philosophically I actually like what Astralis have been doing quite a bit more. This is a team that knows who they are, drafts to it, and isn’t afraid to go a little outside the box for simplicity’s sake.

Schalke should probably be a better team but let’s just say Astralis have been a bit more “spunky” lately. I’m not betting a side here as I think both of these teams are bad but you can probably give a motivation edge to Astralis too. Schalke aren’t technically eliminated from playoffs yet but Astralis control their own fate and every win will get them closer … to getting destroyed in playoffs.

The best value on the board via the model is actually the tower total over. Both of these teams have been able to keep that market competitive even as underdogs. Over 92% of Schalke games have had more than 11.5 towers and 53.9% of their games have had more than 12.5 towers. They average 12.69 towers per game. Astralis are 53.5%, 46.16%, and average 12.23 towers per game. I could see this being a sloppy and surprisingly competitive contest between two teams battling for their lives.

My Picks:

Prop: OVER 12.5 towers @ +123 (1 unit)

 


 

SK Gaming +308 vs Fnatic -435

 

Kill Total: 28.5 (over -108 / under -120)

Kill Spread: +8.5 @ -115 / -8.5 @ -116

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 17.5

Time Total: 30:00 (over -132 / under +102)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: SK +417 / FNC -639

Model Suggested Play: Fnatic moneyline (light)

Trends
FNC as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) SK as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 7 2 -266 Matches as Underdogs 4 10 +220
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 5 4 6.3 Against Kill Spread 8 6 +7
Kill Totals 6 3 27.72 Kill Totals 5 9 25.86
Team Kill Totals 6 3 16.50 Team Kill Totals 8 6 9.57
Game Time Totals 4 5 31.7 Game Time Totals 7 7 31.29
Dragons over 4.5 6 3 Dragons over 4.5 5 9
Towers over 11.5 5 4 Towers over 11.5 7 7

 

League Rank FNC Tale of the Tape SK League Rank
1.0 1970.4 Gold Diff @ 10 min -301.9 8.0
3.0 1028.3 Gold Diff @ 15 min -462.5 7.0
2.0 269.3 Gold Diff @ 20 min -585.1 8.0
99.7 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -60.7
2.0 108.7 Gold Diff / min first 20 -98.6 8.0
1.0 478.7 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -342.8 9.0
1.0 1946.6 Gold /min (GPM) 1703.4 7.0
162.1 Gold / min vs Avg -81.0
1.0 227.2 Gold Diff / min -157.0 8.0
1.0 3.1 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -2.2 8.0
2.0 1673.9 Kill Agnostic GPM 1562.6 7.0
2.0 135.7 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -106.3 8.0
1.0 1997.8 GPM in wins 1931.9 5.0
3.0 340.9 Gold Diff per min in wins 309.2 5.0
1.0 1775.8 GPM in losses 1601.9 7.0
1.0 -152.0 Gold Diff per min in losses -364.2 9.0
227.4 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -156.8
1.0 70.9 Win-Adjusted GPM 5.0 5.0
3.0 45.9 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 14.2 5.0
1.0 69.0 Dragon Control % 49.1 7.0
2.0 62.5 Herald Control % 38.5 8.0
1.0 82.4 Baron Control % 35.3 8.0
5.0 Quality Wins? 2.0
50.0 % of wins as Quality 50.0

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

(Does NOT include yesterday’s performance, didn’t have time to log the games)

SK aren’t completely eliminated but they’ve got a lot of work to do if they want to steal that final playoff spot and I’m just not seeing it with this team. Don’t get cute here. Just back Fnatic in some way shape or form. My favorite method for doing that in this contest is FNC first tower at -213.

 

My Picks:

Prop: FNC first tower @ -213 (1 unit)

 


 

G2 Esports -149 vs Misfits +122

 

Kill Total: 27.5 (over -111 / under -119)

Kill Spread: -4.5 @ -115 / +4.5 @ -115

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 12.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -128 / under -112)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: G2 +120 / MSF -146

Model Suggested Play: Misfits moneyline

(lines from Pinnacle)

Trends
G2 as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) MSF as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 6 6 -295 Matches as Underdogs 3 3 +63
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 3 9 6.3 Against Kill Spread 4 2 +4
Kill Totals 6 6 27.58 Kill Totals 4 2 26.67
Team Kill Totals 4 8 16.42 Team Kill Totals 3 3 11.83
Game Time Totals 6 6 31.5 Game Time Totals 3 3 32.17
Dragons over 4.5 4 8 Dragons over 4.5 5 1
Towers over 11.5 7 5 Towers over 11.5 4 2

 

League Rank G2 Tale of the Tape MSF League Rank
3.0 635.6 Gold Diff @ 10 min 179.0 4.0
4.0 700.7 Gold Diff @ 15 min 1138.6 2.0
4.0 569.6 Gold Diff @ 20 min 1234.5 3.0
25.5 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 28.6
5.0 20.7 Gold Diff / min first 20 60.1 3.0
5.0 74.2 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 232.0 3.0
3.0 1839.7 Gold /min (GPM) 1826.9 4.0
55.3 Gold / min vs Avg 42.5
5.0 74.2 Gold Diff / min 109.8 3.0
5.0 1.0 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 1.6 3.0
4.0 1631.0 Kill Agnostic GPM 1619.1 5.0
4.0 50.4 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 46.7 5.0
3.0 1983.3 GPM in wins 1882.4 8.0
4.0 327.5 Gold Diff per min in wins 240.4 8.0
4.0 1672.2 GPM in losses 1702.0 2.0
4.0 -221.3 Gold Diff per min in losses -184.2 2.0
74.4 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 110.0
3.0 56.3 Win-Adjusted GPM -44.5 8.0
4.0 32.5 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -54.6 8.0
3.0 62.3 Dragon Control % 62.9 2.0
10.0 22.7 Herald Control % 61.5 3.0
3.0 60.0 Baron Control % 47.1 5.0
5.0 Quality Wins? 3.0
71.4 % of wins as Quality 33.3

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

(Does NOT include yesterday’s performance, didn’t have time to log the games)

Misfits weird game yesterday didn’t really instill a lot of confidence but they’ve been the better team this season. For whatever reason this team remains disrespected in the betting markets. Conversely, G2 get way way too much respect based on priors. You have to look at what’s happening in the here and now. To some extent I’ve been ok with giving this G2 team the benefit of the doubt over the past few years but things are different now.

Model shows a double digit edge on market price and in most of the important measures these two teams have been roughly equal with the exception being baron control. This should be an even money series and it isn’t so I’ll take the dogs here.

In terms of derivatives, Misfits first blood and first herald show massive MASSIVE edges on market price. I prefer the first herald and will be taking that as well as the moneyline.

 

My Picks:

Moneyline: Misfits +122 (1 unit)

Prop: Misfits first herald @ -133 (1 unit)

 


 

Rogue -172 vs MAD Lions +135

 

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -109 / under -120)

Kill Spread: -4.5 @ -112 / +4.5 @ -120

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 11.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -119 / under -110)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: ROG -180 / MAD +141

Model Suggested Play: none

Trends
ROG as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) MAD as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 11 3 -298 Matches as Underdogs 0 2 +4
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 8 6 5.9 Against Kill Spread 0 2 +3
Kill Totals 7 7 26.00 Kill Totals 1 1 27.50
Team Kill Totals 8 6 15.29 Team Kill Totals 0 2 12.50
Game Time Totals 6 8 31.6 Game Time Totals 1 1 32.00
Dragons over 4.5 6 8 Dragons over 4.5 1 1
Towers over 11.5 9 5 Towers over 11.5 2 0

 

League Rank ROG Tale of the Tape MAD League Rank
2.0 845.1 Gold Diff @ 10 min 165.4 5.0
1.0 2020.2 Gold Diff @ 15 min 104.3 6.0
1.0 1946.5 Gold Diff @ 20 min -158.6 5.0
112.8 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 24.7
1.0 175.2 Gold Diff / min first 20 58.5 4.0
2.0 402.3 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 205.7 4.0
2.0 1907.7 Gold /min (GPM) 1823.5 5.0
123.2 Gold / min vs Avg 39.1
2.0 213.0 Gold Diff / min 89.5 4.0
2.0 3.0 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 1.3 4.0
1.0 1698.6 Kill Agnostic GPM 1634.7 3.0
1.0 147.5 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 73.5 3.0
4.0 1978.5 GPM in wins 1916.7 6.0
2.0 373.8 Gold Diff per min in wins 278.1 7.0
5.0 1671.6 GPM in losses 1674.4 3.0
7.0 -323.0 Gold Diff per min in losses -212.2 3.0
213.2 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 89.8
4.0 51.6 Win-Adjusted GPM -10.2 6.0
2.0 78.8 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -16.9 7.0
5.0 52.7 Dragon Control % 55.4 4.0
1.0 65.4 Herald Control % 57.7 4.0
2.0 61.1 Baron Control % 57.1 4.0
8.0 Quality Wins? 3.0
80.0 % of wins as Quality 37.5

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

(Does NOT include yesterday’s performance, didn’t have time to log the games)

Don’t be fooled by the final box score Rogue and Fnatic played a very high level matchup yesterday. That opening 12 or so minutes was actually unbelievably good by Rogue I was impressed and I have high expectations for this team. MAD had an embarrassing win against Astralis who probably should have won if they didn’t bungle it about three different times in the mid to late game.

MAD aren’t in good form right now and while this team is more than capable of “turning it on” I think similarly to last season that this is a stylistic nightmare for them. Rogue’s bottom lane has been so much better than the MAD counterpart this season and given the current form of said bottom lane it’s tough to want to back MAD here.

I’m going against the model recommendation and taking Rogue here. MAD are streaky and they’re just not in good form right now. Hopefully they can get it together for playoffs but I would need a much better price than this to consider them here. Rogue should probably be slightly bigger favorites.

I also like Rogue first herald.

My Picks:

Moneyline: Rogue -172 (1.72 units)

Prop: Rogue first herald @ -115 (1 unit)

 


LCS Summer 2021

Week Eight – Day Two

 

 

Team Solo Mid -278 vs Golden Guardians +209

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -105 / under -123)

Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -118 / +6.5 @ -111

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 8.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -102 / under -127)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: TSM -196 / GGS +152

Model Suggested Play: Golden Guardians moneyline

Trends
TSM as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) GGS as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 11 7 -253 Matches as Underdogs 9 12 +231
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 6 12 5.2 Against Kill Spread 14 7 +7
Kill Totals 5 13 24.22 Kill Totals 15 6 24.93
Team Kill Totals 5 13 14.06 Team Kill Totals 15 6 9.12
Game Time Totals 8 10 32.2 Game Time Totals 11 10 31.19
Dragons over 4.5 7 11 Dragons over 4.5 9 12
Towers over 11.5 11 7 Towers over 11.5 15 6

 

League Rank TSM Tale of the Tape GGS League Rank
2 862.7 Gold Diff @ 10 min -453.1 7
5 159.5 Gold Diff @ 15 min 8.7 6
4 109.5 Gold Diff @ 20 min -379.3 6
-4.6 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -9.6
4 29.1 Gold Diff / min first 20 -31.6 6
6 108.3 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -23.8 8
7 1772.4 Gold /min (GPM) 1802.6 4
-25.2 Gold / min vs Avg 5.1
5 52.3 Gold Diff / min -85.5 8
5 0.7 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -1.0 8
6 1613.3 Kill Agnostic GPM 1620.1 5
5 37.2 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -40.7 7
9 1576.1 Opp Kill Agnostic GPM 1660.8 1
10 1860.3 GPM in wins 1913.6 6
9 215.8 Gold Diff per min in wins 273.3 7
6 1618.5 GPM in losses 1719.4 1
3 -249.3 Gold Diff per min in losses -354.7 8
36.7 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -101.1
10 -83.7 Win-Adjusted GPM -30.4 6
9 -87.9 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -30.3 7
3 56.7 Dragon Control % 63.0 1
3 58.5 Herald Control % 60.0 2
1 73.3 Baron Control % 40.7 8
6.0 Quality Wins? 3.0
42.9 % of wins as Quality 33.3

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

(Does NOT include yesterday’s performance, didn’t have time to log the games)

This GGS loss to CLG was tragic in so many ways. First it blew out my parlays, second they had a 5300 gold lead at one point with a solid scaling composition (although CLG’s scaled well too). Just dumb mistakes. Big oof….

I’m going back to the well though. FlyQuest hold a one game lead on the Guardians for the eigth and final playoff spot but everyone else has clinched so expect those two teams, and CLG to really be giving it their all in these final weeks. Could be a motivation angle in favor of these underdogs with the favorites all clinched up.

I don’t bet solely on narrative however. GGS warrant a position here based on their play this season, the motivational thing is just icing on the cake.

I like the underdogs as well as first herald for GGS and over 12.5 towers all a strong advantaged plays. Triple dipping is a little sketchy though so I’m going to opt for two out of three and take GGS first herald and the over 12.5 towers instead of the outright moneyline. They not only show bigger edges than the side price market but I also think we could reasonably see them jump out to a lead and punt like we’ve seen a handful of times this season.

My Picks:

Prop: OVER 12.5 towers @ +146 (1 unit)

Prop: GGS first herald @ +123 (1 unit)

 


 

Evil Geniuses -196 vs Immortals +149

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -105 / under -123)

Kill Spread: -4.5 @ -123 / +4.5 @ -105

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 10.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -115 / under -112)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: EG -515 / IMT +342

Model Suggested Play: Evil Geniuses moneyline

Trends
EG as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) IMT as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 8 4 -211 Matches as Underdogs 3 8 +172
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 6 6 5.9 Against Kill Spread 5 6 +5
Kill Totals 10 2 26.08 Kill Totals 6 5 23.68
Team Kill Totals 9 3 15.17 Team Kill Totals 6 5 9.32
Game Time Totals 6 6 31.8 Game Time Totals 8 3 31.64
Dragons over 4.5 7 5 Dragons over 4.5 7 4
Towers over 11.5 8 4 Towers over 11.5 7 4

 

League Rank EG Tale of the Tape IMT League Rank
1 1084.6 Gold Diff @ 10 min -445.5 6
1 2124.3 Gold Diff @ 15 min -792.5 8
1 1774.3 Gold Diff @ 20 min -351.5 8
56.1 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 7.1
2 112.9 Gold Diff / min first 20 -41.5 7
3 158.5 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 5.4 7
1 1939.7 Gold /min (GPM) 1765.5 8
142.1 Gold / min vs Avg -32.1
2 158.5 Gold Diff / min -39.2 7
2 2.2 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -0.6 7
1 1711.8 Kill Agnostic GPM 1593.7 7
2 102.4 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -41.1 8
6 1609.4 Opp Kill Agnostic GPM 1634.8 3
2 2086.7 GPM in wins 1919.9 5
3 347.4 Gold Diff per min in wins 261.0 8
4 1645.6 GPM in losses 1625.1 5
1 -219.2 Gold Diff per min in losses -312.2 5
142.9 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -54.8
2 142.7 Win-Adjusted GPM -24.2 5
3 43.8 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -42.6 8
4 55.6 Dragon Control % 46.5 7
1 61.9 Herald Control % 42.9 9
4 58.1 Baron Control % 43.8 7
9.0 Quality Wins? 5.0
64.3 % of wins as Quality 50.0

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

(Does NOT include yesterday’s performance, didn’t have time to log the games)

With Immortals clinching playoffs with the win yesterday I somewhat think there’s a chance for a let down here but I don’t want to get caught up in that. EG have clinched but are still battling for byes.

Straight up this is a very cheap price for EG who have been the best team in the league in Summer despite their record. They’re outperforming everyone in just about every metric that carries more weight. Immortals have been competent but have somewhat stagnated after progressing for most of the 2021 season. There’s a chance these teams clown around a bit in this one but I’m actually betting EG here. This is too cheap a price.

 

My Picks:

Kill Spread: Evil Geniuses -5.5 kills @ -104 (1.04 units)

Prop: Evil Geniuses first herald @ -119 (1 unit)

 


 

FlyQuest +222 vs Cloud 9 -303

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -119 / under -110)

Kill Spread: +6.5 @ -118 / -6.5 @ -111

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 15.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -115 / under -112)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: C9 -186 / FLY +143

Model Suggested Play: FlyQuest moneyline

Trends
C9 as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) FLY as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 11 9 -334 Matches as Underdogs 7 13 +177
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 9 11 6.2 Against Kill Spread 9 11 +6
Kill Totals 8 12 24.60 Kill Totals 9 11 24.80
Team Kill Totals 10 10 14.75 Team Kill Totals 10 10 9.65
Game Time Totals 11 9 31.1 Game Time Totals 8 12 31.70
Dragons over 4.5 11 9 Dragons over 4.5 10 10
Towers over 11.5 13 7 Towers over 11.5 14 6

 

League Rank C9 Tale of the Tape FLY Aca League Rank
3 653.9 Gold Diff @ 10 min -716.9 8
3 836.6 Gold Diff @ 15 min -1792.5 9
3 842.9 Gold Diff @ 20 min -1794.0 9
31.1 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -39.2
3 63.7 Gold Diff / min first 20 -87.6 10
2 312.3 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 124.8 5
2 1892.7 Gold /min (GPM) 1793.3 6
95.1 Gold / min vs Avg -4.3
3 118.4 Gold Diff / min 2.1 6
3 1.6 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 0.0 6
2 1690.5 Kill Agnostic GPM 1592.1 8
3 74.8 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -5.7 6
5 1615.7 Opp Kill Agnostic GPM 1597.8 7
1 2114.1 GPM in wins 1890.6 8
1 432.9 Gold Diff per min in wins 184.2 10
2 1649.1 GPM in losses 1598.7 8
2 -227.4 Gold Diff per min in losses -362.2 9
102.9 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -13.5
1 170.1 Win-Adjusted GPM -53.5 8
1 129.3 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -119.5 10
6 51.0 Dragon Control % 44.8 8
6 50.0 Herald Control % 58.3 4
6 50.0 Baron Control % 66.7 2
9.0 Quality Wins? 2.0
81.8 % of wins as Quality 50.0

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

(Does NOT include yesterday’s performance, didn’t have time to log the games)

Quick reminder on this one that the trend numbers are full season but the Tale of the Tape are filtering out FlyQuest to just since they’ve switched to the academy lineup.

Cloud 9 are slowly playing themselves into form but they still don’t look particularly sharp. The match against 100T yesterday was sort of all over the place for both teams and wasn’t exactly a great showing by either. Still they get props for the comeback in a game that was looking like it was getting away from them and 100T had the superior scaling options.

I’ve been a little hesitant to play derivatives in a small sample size with this FlyQuest team but they’re very clearly a herald snowball squad and that’s their intent in every game so far. I like FlyQuest first herald and unders in this contest quite a bit. The FlyQuest side has the added bonus of C9 already locked for playoffs while FlyQuest are battling for the final spot with CLG and Golden Guardians. The line has also moved up from earlier in the week almost 40 cents.

I’m going to actually play a kill spread on the underdogs here as a way to play into the under projection that’s also involved here. Lower scores plus higher kill spreads are a recipe for covers and this match matters way way more to FlyQuest than it does to C9.

My Picks:

Kill Spread: FlyQuest +5.5 kills @ +102 (0.75 units)

Moneyline: FlyQuest +222 (0.25 units)

Prop: FlyQuest first herald @ +122 (1 unit)

 


 

Dignitas +257 vs Team Liquid -357

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -106 / under -122)

Kill Spread: +7.5 @ -123 / -7.5 @ -105

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 15.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -110 / under -118)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: DIG +208 / TL -280

Model Suggested Play: Dignitas moneyline (light)

Trends
TL as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) DIG as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 12 4 -276 Matches as Underdogs 4 12 +149
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 10 6 5.9 Against Kill Spread 8 8 +5
Kill Totals 8 8 24.38 Kill Totals 7 9 25.19
Team Kill Totals 11 5 14.50 Team Kill Totals 8 8 10.13
Game Time Totals 10 6 31.6 Game Time Totals 7 9 31.81
Dragons over 4.5 7 9 Dragons over 4.5 5 11
Towers over 11.5 7 9 Towers over 11.5 6 10

 

League Rank TL Tale of the Tape DIG League Rank
4 367.5 Gold Diff @ 10 min -854.4 9
4 671.2 Gold Diff @ 15 min -326.0 7
5 778.3 Gold Diff @ 20 min -142.0 7
2.8 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -23.4
5 26.6 Gold Diff / min first 20 -50.6 8
4 150.8 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -238.3 9
5 1801.0 Gold /min (GPM) 1714.0 9
3.4 Gold / min vs Avg -83.5
4 67.2 Gold Diff / min -108.4 9
4 1.0 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -1.5 9
4 1629.6 Kill Agnostic GPM 1539.0 10
4 41.5 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -95.7 9
8 1588.1 Opp Kill Agnostic GPM 1634.7 4
3 1941.1 GPM in wins 1881.9 9
2 370.9 Gold Diff per min in wins 289.5 6
3 1646.8 GPM in losses 1610.7 7
4 -266.9 Gold Diff per min in losses -353.4 7
51.6 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -124.0
3 -2.9 Win-Adjusted GPM -62.1 9
2 67.3 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -14.1 6
5 52.0 Dragon Control % 41.6 9
8 43.6 Herald Control % 53.7 5
5 53.8 Baron Control % 31.8 10
8.0 Quality Wins? 3.0
72.7 % of wins as Quality 37.5

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

(Does NOT include yesterday’s performance, didn’t have time to log the games)

This game only matters for seeding with both teams having locked up a playoff position already. I’m a little worried that we get a ton of goofy meaningless games the last week which is the one downside to the full season schedule but I like literally everything else about this change. It rewards annualized consistency and progression matching the rest of the league but that’s a different topic.

Liquid have more or less stomped all of the teams worse than them. They’ve actually covered the kill spread in every single game that it’s been greater than or equal to 7.5 kills. They just struggle against the top teams. That said, this is way too expensive a price to pay for a game that effectively doesn’t matter to them. Liquid have already locked upper bracket for playoffs and while they will be jockeying for seeding position with the other top teams it’s tough to really see them giving it their all here.

Again, don’t get too drawn into narratives just used them as icing on the cake for your actual handicap.

I like Dignitas on the kill spread here despite the fact that Liquid have been outstanding at covering as big favorites. This game is likely to be lower scoring with the model suggesting light plays on the unders and we have a bigger 7.5 kill spread which has done well in the LCS in general this season. We’ll do a similar kill spread/moneyline split along with a Dignitas first blood.

My Picks:

Kill Spread: Dignitas +7.5 kills @ -123 (1 unit)

Moneyline: Dignitas +257 (0.25 units)

Prop: Dignitas first blood @ +111 (1 unit)

 


 

100 Thieves -500 vs CLG +338

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -119 / under -110)

Kill Spread: -8.5 @ -127 / +8.5 @ -102

Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 7.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over +102 / under -132)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: 100T -943 / CLG +535

Model Suggested Play: 100T moneyline

Trends
100T as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) CLG as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 13 6 -297 Matches as Underdogs 4 13 +155
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 10 9 5.9 Against Kill Spread 5 12 +5
Kill Totals 8 11 24.50 Kill Totals 8 9 24.62
Team Kill Totals 8 11 14.50 Team Kill Totals 5 12 9.74
Game Time Totals 9 10 31.8 Game Time Totals 10 7 31.76
Dragons over 4.5 8 11 Dragons over 4.5 11 6
Towers over 11.5 11 8 Towers over 11.5 10 7

 

League Rank 100T Tale of the Tape CLG League Rank
5 316.4 Gold Diff @ 10 min -996.9 10
2 1271.3 Gold Diff @ 15 min -2031.9 10
2 712.8 Gold Diff @ 20 min -2057.6 10
43.7 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -64.1
1 117.2 Gold Diff / min first 20 -76.2 9
1 312.9 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -366.8 10
3 1825.8 Gold /min (GPM) 1668.7 10
28.2 Gold / min vs Avg -128.8
1 173.8 Gold Diff / min -183.3 10
1 2.4 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -2.6 10
3 1630.9 Kill Agnostic GPM 1540.9 9
1 112.8 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -117.0 10
10 1518.1 Opp Kill Agnostic GPM 1657.9 2
7 1910.4 GPM in wins 1921.6 4
4 342.3 Gold Diff per min in wins 319.0 5
10 1554.8 GPM in losses 1589.7 9
10 -365.5 Gold Diff per min in losses -340.2 6
158.2 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -198.9
7 -33.6 Win-Adjusted GPM -22.4 4
4 38.7 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 15.3 5
2 60.9 Dragon Control % 37.3 10
7 45.9 Herald Control % 36.6 10
3 65.4 Baron Control % 40.0 9
12.0 Quality Wins? 4.0
75.0 % of wins as Quality 80.0

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

(Does NOT include yesterday’s performance, didn’t have time to log the games)

I’ve got mad respect for CLG for not tilting off when it was looking bad yesterday against Golden Guardians, ESPECIALLY after last week. Legitimately impressive mental game from the veterans and I can’t understate how much I respect that.

That said, 100T should stomp here…

Unless you think the “locked playoffs vs must win” narrative kicks in. I certainly don’t want to pay for 100T here despite them actually being a “value” simply for that reason alone. The model likes kill total unders here as do I and when that happens kill spreads are more enticing especially as they get larger. Noticing a theme today? Wasn’t intentional just how it worked out. I like the underdog kill spread here as well as the game total under.

My Picks:

Kill Spread: CLG +8.5 kills @ -102 (1.02 units)

Kill Total: UNDER 24.5 @ -110 (1.1 units)


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and you can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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