Friday, June 16th Recap

 

ThunderTalk vs LGD Gaming (Net: -2.0 units)

Invictus Gaming vs JD Gaming (Net: 0 )

 

Fredit Brion vs Afreeca Freecs (Net: +0.04 units)

DRX vs Liiv Sandbox (no action)

 

Misfits vs Excel (no action)

Schalke vs Rogue (no action)

SK Gaming vs MAD Lions (no action)

Fnatic vs Astralis (Net: +0.31 units)

Vitality vs G2 (Net: -1.5 units)

 

Immortals vs Cloud 9 (Net: +3.11 units)

FlyQuest vs TSM (Net: -1.0 units))

Dignitas vs 100 Thieves (Net: +1.22 units)

Liquid vs CLG (Net: -1.0 units)

Golden Guardians vs Evil Geniuses (no action)

 

LPL Net Total: -2.0 units

LCK Net Total: +0.04 units

LEC Net Total: -1.19 units

LCS Net Total: +2.33 units

 

Daily Net Total: -0.82 units

 

 

 


LPL Summer 2021

Week Six – Day Six

 

 

UltraPrime +454 (+1.5 maps @ +133, -1.5 @ +1100)

vs

Team WE -714 (-1.5 maps @ -169)

 

Map Moneyline: UP +298 / WE -417

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -119 / under -110)

Kill Spread: +7.5 @ -102 / -7.5 @ -128

Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 16.5

Time Total: 30:00 (over -128 / under -101)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: +175 / -228 (map), +299 / -420 (series), -120 / -106 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: UltraPrime +1.5 maps (map moneylines over series)

Starters:

UP – Zs, H4cker, Xiaocaobao, Smlz, ShiauC

WE – Breathe, Beishang, Shanks, Elk, Missing

 

Trends
WE as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) UP as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 3 2 -985 Matches as Underdogs #N/A #N/A
Against Map Spread 2 3 -4 Against Map Spread #N/A #N/A
Against Kill Spread 7 6 7.1 Against Kill Spread #N/A #N/A
Kill Totals 8 5 25.10 Kill Totals #N/A #N/A
Team Kill Totals 6 7 15.50 Team Kill Totals #N/A #N/A
Game Time Totals 7 6 31.0 Game Time Totals #N/A #N/A
Dragons over 4.5 6 7 Dragons over 4.5 #N/A #N/A
Towers over 11.5 6 7 Towers over 11.5 #N/A #N/A

 

 

League Rank WE Tale of the Tape UP League Rank
7 180.7 Gold Diff @ 10 min 699.9 4
2 1298.8 Gold Diff @ 15 min 312.5 7
4 2037.5 Gold Diff @ 20 min 950.0 8
36.1 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 2.0
4 43.9 Gold Diff / min first 20 -33.7 8
12 121.0 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -131.0 17
11 1799.3 Gold /min (GPM) 1734.9 14
11.2 Gold / min vs Avg -53.2
10 19.2 Gold Diff / min -120.8 14
10 0.3 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -1.7 14
11 1596.0 Kill Agnostic GPM 1571.5 13
10 7.7 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -59.2 13
12 1924.9 GPM in wins 1937.5 10
10 325.8 Gold Diff per min in wins 344.6 8
6 1662.2 GPM in losses 1646.3 8
11 -315.3 Gold Diff per min in losses -324.4 13
25.9 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -114.0
12 -25.1 Win-Adjusted GPM -12.6 10
10 5.2 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 24.0 8
9 49.0 Dragon Control % 48.5 10
5 58.7 Herald Control % 37.0 16
12 50.0 Baron Control % 40.6 14
5.0 Quality Wins? 4.0
41.7 % of wins as Quality 57.1

 

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 44.326%
2 1 29.629%
1 2 14.874%
0 2 11.170%
(Series Win): 73.956%

Team WE are looking way shakier this season and while last season we had strong underlying performance metrics to point to which helped us stick with them, that has not been the case at all this Summer.

Obviously underdog spreads haven’t performed well overall and in this case WE haven’t performed well as favorites but UP haven’t stepped up as underdogs either. I’m going to look elsewhere here.

UP have a 60.9% first dragon rate to WE’s 43.5%. It makes sense, WE have been a first herald focused team and while I think that’s the superior way to play the game right now it does make for some easy betting spots for us.

My Picks:

Prop: Map 1 UP first dragon @ +116 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 UP first dragon @ +116 (1 unit)

 


 

Rogue Warriors +763 (+1.5 maps @ +216, -1.5 @ +1800)

vs

RareAtom -1667 (-1.5 maps @ -286)

 

Map Moneyline: RW +474 / RA -769

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -116 / under -112)

Kill Spread: +9.5 @ -105 / -9.5 @ -123

Team Kill Totals: 6.5 / 16.5

Time Total: 29:00 (over -115 / under -112)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: +340 / -494 (map), +660 / -1283 (series), +160 / -205 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: Rogue Warriors +1.5 maps (map moneylines over series)

Starters:

RW – Zdz, Xiaohao, Forge, Betty, QiuQiu

RA – Cube, Leyan, FoFo, iBoy, Hang

Trends
RA as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) RW as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 4 1 -874 Matches as Underdogs 3 7 +651
Against Map Spread 3 2 -134 Against Map Spread 4 6 +111
Against Kill Spread 5 7 7.7 Against Kill Spread 11 12 +9
Kill Totals 5 7 25.30 Kill Totals 11 12 25.50
Team Kill Totals 5 7 16.10 Team Kill Totals 12 11 8.30
Game Time Totals 5 7 30.0 Game Time Totals 9 14 29.60
Dragons over 4.5 5 7 Dragons over 4.5 7 16
Towers over 11.5 4 8 Towers over 11.5 5 18

 

 

 

League Rank RA Tale of the Tape Rogue Warriors League Rank
2 1264.1 Gold Diff @ 10 min -323.2 12
4 585.3 Gold Diff @ 15 min -761.5 12
2 73.9 Gold Diff @ 20 min -987.5 14
35.5 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -93.9
6 88.6 Gold Diff / min first 20 -129.3 16
10 269.2 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -117.9 16
8 1808.1 Gold /min (GPM) 1656.1 15
20.0 Gold / min vs Avg -132.0
6 86.4 Gold Diff / min -252.7 15
6 1.2 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -3.6 15
9 1620.9 Kill Agnostic GPM 1513.6 15
4 62.0 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -153.3 15
14 1918.9 GPM in wins 1889.9 15
12 306.2 Gold Diff per min in wins 171.2 17
12 1611.1 GPM in losses 1553.9 17
8 -304.3 Gold Diff per min in losses -438.1 17
93.1 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -246.0
14 -31.2 Win-Adjusted GPM -60.1 15
12 -14.5 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -149.5 17
4 57.4 Dragon Control % 30.4 16
2 65.3 Herald Control % 41.3 14
6 58.1 Baron Control % 29.6 16
7.0 Quality Wins? 2.0
43.8 % of wins as Quality 28.6

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 64.344%
2 1 25.461%
1 2 6.280%
0 2 3.914%
(Series Win): 89.806%

 

Rogue Warriors celebrated like it was their Super Bowl after stealing one from Suning in a wild game three that was part of an even wilder overall series. My opinion? Suning clearly no-show’d on the day. They looked completely terrible even in their game win. That said, confidence is a hell of a drug sometimes.

RareAtom have been one of the adults in the room in the LPL and I’m not entirely sure they’re going to play the game RW want to play. The thing is there isn’t really a great way to attack the sides in this contest. The best thing on the board is actually RW first herald at +140 but I don’t even really like that too much. I’m just passing this, RA probably stomp. My initial gut instinct on this one was kill totals over but RW have had a few series where they’ve just been completely asleep.

My Picks:

no wagers

 


 

TOP Esports -137 (-1.5 maps @ +221, +1.5 @ -435)

vs

FunPlus Phoenix +107 (+1.5 maps @ -294, -1.5 @ +306)

 

Map Moneyline: TOP -132 / FPX +103

Kill Total: 27.5 (over -116 / under -112)

Kill Spread: -0.5 @ -112 / +0.5 @ -116

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 13.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -110 / under -118)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -128 / +100 (map), -137 / +107 (series)

Model Suggested Play: none

Starters:

TOP – Qingtian, Karsa, Knight, JackeyLove, Yuyanjia

FPX – Nuguri, Tian, Doinb, Lwx, Shenyi

Trends
TOP as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) FPX as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 5 3 -1220 Matches as Underdogs 0 0
Against Map Spread 4 4 +19 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 10 9 6.3 Against Kill Spread 0 0
Kill Totals 12 7 26.25 Kill Totals 0 0
Team Kill Totals 11 8 15.63 Team Kill Totals 0 0
Game Time Totals 9 10 30.6 Game Time Totals 0 0
Dragons over 4.5 7 12 Dragons over 4.5 0 0
Towers over 11.5 11 8 Towers over 11.5 0 0

 

 

 

League Rank TOP Tale of the Tape FunPlus League Rank
3 1247.0 Gold Diff @ 10 min -147.3 10
10 90.3 Gold Diff @ 15 min 454.6 5
3 215.8 Gold Diff @ 20 min 16.2 7
27.3 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 72.3
7 35.7 Gold Diff / min first 20 58.0 2
3 492.8 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 360.3 7
3 1874.8 Gold /min (GPM) 1899.8 2
86.7 Gold / min vs Avg 111.7
2 162.3 Gold Diff / min 128.3 3
2 2.2 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 1.8 3
3 1635.9 Kill Agnostic GPM 1671.9 1
3 88.6 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 97.3 2
5 1988.6 GPM in wins 2000.7 1
6 351.2 Gold Diff per min in wins 354.2 5
7 1647.3 GPM in losses 1720.4 1
2 -215.6 Gold Diff per min in losses -273.4 5
169.0 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 135.0
5 38.6 Win-Adjusted GPM 50.7 1
6 30.5 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 33.5 5
3 58.7 Dragon Control % 64.8 2
4 59.5 Herald Control % 52.0 7
2 67.7 Baron Control % 55.6 7
12.0 Quality Wins? 8.0
85.7 % of wins as Quality 50.0

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 28.231%
2 1 26.462%
1 2 23.341%
0 2 21.965%
(Series Win): 54.693%

 

This is more or less a 50/50 matchup. JackeyLove and Yuyanjia have been absolutely dominant since reuniting and the FPX bottom lane hasn’t been the rock it usually is, not that it’s been bad. These two play a very similar game, there’s one potentially lopsided matchup on each side, this is a classic coin toss. I think TOP have been shaping into form while FPX are a little shaky but nothing would surprise me.

Overs are also intriguing but I think there’s a reasonable chance we just get an over under split so I’ll just pass.

My Picks:

no wagers

 


LCK Summer 2021

Week Six – Day Three

 

 

Gen.G -233 (-1.5 maps @ +133, +1.5 @ -833)

vs

Hanwha Life Esports +191 (+1.5 maps @ -169, -1.5 @ +509)

 

Map Moneyline: GEG -208 / HLE +161

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -118 / under -111)

Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -111 / +5.5 @ -118

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -104 / under -123)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  -190 / +148 (map), -241 / +197 (series), +138 / -175 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: none

 

Trends
GEG as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) HLE as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 8 2 -421 Matches as Underdogs 1 4 +213
Against Map Spread 3 7 -26 Against Map Spread 2 3 -172
Against Kill Spread 12 13 6.5 Against Kill Spread 6 6 +5
Kill Totals 13 12 23.00 Kill Totals 5 7 24.50
Team Kill Totals 11 14 14.30 Team Kill Totals 6 6 9.90
Game Time Totals 13 12 32.0 Game Time Totals 6 6 32.20
Dragons over 4.5 12 13 Dragons over 4.5 4 8
Towers over 11.5 11 14 Towers over 11.5 6 6

 

 

League Rank GEG Tale of the Tape HLE League Rank
8.0 -285.7 Gold Diff @ 10 min 68.7 4.0
7.0 -234.4 Gold Diff @ 15 min 287.1 3.0
9.0 -874.5 Gold Diff @ 20 min 979.6 3.0
0.7 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 6.5
3.0 18.2 Gold Diff / min first 20 10.1 4.0
1.0 394.7 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -153.8 9.0
1.0 1824.9 Gold /min (GPM) 1757.9 7.0
60.8 Gold / min vs Avg -6.2
1.0 126.7 Gold Diff / min -33.5 7.0
1.0 1.7 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -0.4 7.0
2.0 1632.0 Kill Agnostic GPM 1595.4 8.0
1.0 66.7 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -15.1 6.0
2.0 1941.1 GPM in wins 1950.8 1.0
3.0 323.3 Gold Diff per min in wins 398.0 1.0
5.0 1618.2 GPM in losses 1642.1 2.0
2.0 -222.9 Gold Diff per min in losses -292.4 4.0
127.8 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -32.4
2.0 28.8 Win-Adjusted GPM 38.5 1.0
3.0 20.0 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 94.6 1.0
2.0 59.3 Dragon Control % 42.7 9.0
10.0 36.7 Herald Control % 53.2 4.0
2.0 66.7 Baron Control % 40.0 8.0
9.0 Quality Wins? 7.0
56.3 % of wins as Quality 77.8

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 39.180%
2 1 29.311%
1 2 17.516%
0 2 13.992%
(Series Win): 68.491%

 

Hanwha are finally starting to get it together a bit but I’m still not buying this team has entirely figured things out. This is a clash of styles though and with Gen.G seemingly content to just dragon scale, a complete change in identity from Spring and all of 2020, I’m a little worried that they’ll just get snowballed on every so often. Even with an absymal 36.7% overall herald control rate (worst in the LCK), they’re managing to grind teams to a pulp via farm alone with the highest kill agnostic gold differential per minute in the LCK at +66.7 gold diff/min. In other words, Gen.G are content to win ugly. I’m not sure if this is just them coasting to a playoff spot or what but it is a bit of a weird departure.

The model flagged kill total unders but the projections strongly disagree with that making this a 25+ kill contest so I’ll stay away from that. There’s really not too much here. Could make a case for first herald for Hanwha but that’s not particularly great either. I’m just passing this one. Gut tells me Gen.G just obliterate them but don’t have enough evidence to support that.

My Picks:

no wagers

 


 

T1 +148 (+1.5 maps @ -227, -1.5 @ +392)

vs

DAMWON Kia Gaming -179 (-1.5 maps @ +172, +1.5 @ -588)

 

Map Moneyline: T1 +128 / DWG -164

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -125 / under -104)

Kill Spread: +4.5 @ -125 / -4.5 @ -104

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 13.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -132 / under +101)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  -131 / +103 (map), -137 / +114 (series)

Model Suggested Play: T1 series moneyline and -1.5 maps

Trends
DWG as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) T1 as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 6 4 -635 Matches as Underdogs 1 1 +169
Against Map Spread 4 6 -26 Against Map Spread 2 0 -198
Against Kill Spread 10 15 6.5 Against Kill Spread 5 0 +5
Kill Totals 14 11 23.50 Kill Totals 3 2 24.00
Team Kill Totals 14 11 14.40 Team Kill Totals 5 0 10.00
Game Time Totals 18 7 31.1 Game Time Totals 3 2 32.50
Dragons over 4.5 12 13 Dragons over 4.5 3 2
Towers over 11.5 14 11 Towers over 11.5 2 3

 

League Rank DWG Tale of the Tape T1 League Rank
3.0 113.8 Gold Diff @ 10 min 831.5 1.0
2.0 519.7 Gold Diff @ 15 min 1120.5 1.0
2.0 721.6 Gold Diff @ 20 min 1373.3 1.0
-2.7 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 39.7
6.0 -9.8 Gold Diff / min first 20 57.0 1.0
4.0 68.6 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 225.0 2.0
3.0 1799.5 Gold /min (GPM) 1820.8 2.0
35.4 Gold / min vs Avg 56.8
3.0 68.6 Gold Diff / min 99.9 2.0
3.0 1.0 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 1.4 2.0
4.0 1619.2 Kill Agnostic GPM 1654.5 1.0
3.0 59.1 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 61.5 2.0
6.0 1923.3 GPM in wins 1924.4 4.0
7.0 303.4 Gold Diff per min in wins 327.1 2.0
8.0 1589.0 GPM in losses 1689.0 1.0
8.0 -330.5 Gold Diff per min in losses -189.3 1.0
69.7 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 101.0
6.0 11.0 Win-Adjusted GPM 12.1 4.0
7.0 0.0 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 23.8 2.0
3.0 54.9 Dragon Control % 49.2 6.0
2.0 59.6 Herald Control % 47.9 7.0
1.0 72.2 Baron Control % 61.1 3.0
9.0 Quality Wins? 7.0
52.9 % of wins as Quality 50.0

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
0 2 28.826%
1 2 26.699%
2 1 23.029%
2 0 21.446%
(Series Win): 44.475%

 

So the coaching change for T1 was a big surprise to me. It’s totally reasonable that ownership looked at this roster and said “we should absolutely be better what the hell is going on?” but in terms of actual performance metrics T1 have been excellent regardless of the lineups and regardless of their results in the win/loss column. This team is the toughest loser with BY FAR the best economy in losses, the highest kill agnostic gold per minute, second highest in a similar tier with Gen.G and DWG for kill agnostic differential and their early game rating is the best in the LCK by a mile. Maybe I’m not seeing what everyone else is or perhaps people are being way too results oriented with this team. I don’t get it.

DAMWON have looked a little better of late but there are still a lot of problems with sloppiness plaguing their play which has me concerned. There’s a chance they’re just taking it easy this season, we’ve seen some evidence that perhaps that’s the case but I’d imagine they get up for this, a potential playoff preview match.

T1 need this match way more and while I don’t usually subscribe to narratives like this I also think they’ve just been a fairly even performer if not outright better than DAMWON despite having fewer wins. If it wasn’t obvious I’m going to be on the underdogs here.

DAMWON first herald is also worth a look. 62.96% vs 36% and it’s split -115’s. T1 prefer dragon stacking despite their early game dominance and DWG have a 33.3% first dragon rate, I’d assume these two handshake and take what they prefer but they’re also both chameleon teams that play to their opponent so who knows. Still worth a position though.

My Picks:

Moneyline: T1 +148 (1 unit)

Map Spread: T1 -1.5 maps @ +392 (0.25 units)

Prop: Map 1 DWG first herald @ -115 (0.5units)

Prop: Map 2 DWG first herald @ -115 (0.5 units)

 


LEC Summer 2021

Week Six – Day Two

 

 

SK Gaming +102 vs Excel Esports -130

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -125 / under -104)

Kill Spread: +2.5 @ -114 / -2.5 @ -118

Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 12.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -118 / under -110)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  SK +149 / XL -194

Model Suggested Play: Excel moneyline

Trends
XL as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) SK as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 0 2 -161 Matches as Underdogs 3 9 +226
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 0 2 4.0 Against Kill Spread 7 5 +7
Kill Totals 0 2 25.00 Kill Totals 3 9 25.92
Team Kill Totals 0 2 13.50 Team Kill Totals 6 6 9.50
Game Time Totals 0 2 32.5 Game Time Totals 5 7 31.33
Dragons over 4.5 0 2 Dragons over 4.5 4 8
Towers over 11.5 0 2 Towers over 11.5 5 7

 

League Rank XL Tale of the Tape SK League Rank
5.0 124.4 Gold Diff @ 10 min -814.4 9.0
7.0 -375.4 Gold Diff @ 15 min -1410.9 9.0
7.0 -692.3 Gold Diff @ 20 min -1905.0 10.0
-81.8 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -64.0
8.0 -69.3 Gold Diff / min first 20 -127.9 10.0
8.0 -295.7 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -516.6 10.0
8.0 1679.9 Gold /min (GPM) 1665.1 10.0
-99.7 Gold / min vs Avg -114.5
7.0 -106.8 Gold Diff / min -234.7 10.0
7.0 -1.6 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -3.3 10.0
9.0 1535.8 Kill Agnostic GPM 1534.8 10.0
7.0 -81.8 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -158.6 10.0
9.0 1868.2 GPM in wins 1949.6 4.0
7.0 282.8 Gold Diff per min in wins 347.8 2.0
10.0 1572.3 GPM in losses 1601.9 8.0
8.0 -329.5 Gold Diff per min in losses -364.2 10.0
-106.6 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -234.6
9.0 -56.3 Win-Adjusted GPM 25.1 4.0
7.0 -12.8 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 52.2 2.0
9.0 37.5 Dragon Control % 45.7 7.0
5.0 54.5 Herald Control % 31.8 9.0
6.0 46.7 Baron Control % 21.4 10.0
1.0 Quality Wins? 1.0
25.0 % of wins as Quality 50.0

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

I’m not nearly as bullish on Excel as the model is but I do think they’re probably worth a play here. They have the right idea about the game their execution is just lacking a lot of the time which is ultimately what’s going to keep them from a stronger performance this season.

My favorite position in this match is actually the SK Gaming first dragon. Excel have shown that they’re commited to first herald when they can swing it this season and the opposite is true for SK Gaming who opt to take the free dragon when they can get it and hope to absorb the repercussions. I don’t have any first herald markets on a few different books but first herald for XL and first dragon for SK.

My Picks:

Prop: SK Gaming first dragon @ -116 (1 unit)

 


 

Schalke 04 +173 vs Misfits -227

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -114 / under -115)

Kill Spread: +5.5 @ -120 / -5.5 @ -112

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 14.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -120 / under -108)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  S04 +276 / MSF -386

Model Suggested Play: Misfits moneyline

Trends
MSF as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) S04 as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 5 1 -233 Matches as Underdogs 2 6 +194
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 4 2 5.7 Against Kill Spread 3 5 +6
Kill Totals 2 4 25.00 Kill Totals 2 6 26.38
Team Kill Totals 5 1 14.83 Team Kill Totals 2 6 10.13
Game Time Totals 4 2 32.2 Game Time Totals 3 5 32.13
Dragons over 4.5 4 2 Dragons over 4.5 2 6
Towers over 11.5 2 4 Towers over 11.5 7 1

 

League Rank MSF Tale of the Tape S04 League Rank
7.0 38.1 Gold Diff @ 10 min 22.2 8.0
2.0 944.8 Gold Diff @ 15 min -1049.9 8.0
5.0 1116.5 Gold Diff @ 20 min -1258.4 8.0
21.0 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -68.6
4.0 38.7 Gold Diff / min first 20 -64.6 7.0
4.0 199.6 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -429.6 9.0
5.0 1820.5 Gold /min (GPM) 1670.8 9.0
40.9 Gold / min vs Avg -108.7
4.0 89.2 Gold Diff / min -179.3 9.0
4.0 1.3 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -2.6 9.0
6.0 1613.2 Kill Agnostic GPM 1542.0 7.0
5.0 33.7 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -99.0 8.0
8.0 1888.2 GPM in wins 1897.3 7.0
8.0 245.4 Gold Diff per min in wins 205.9 9.0
2.0 1702.0 GPM in losses 1585.9 9.0
2.0 -184.2 Gold Diff per min in losses -323.8 7.0
89.4 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -179.1
8.0 -36.3 Win-Adjusted GPM -27.2 7.0
8.0 -50.2 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -89.7 9.0
3.0 61.1 Dragon Control % 28.3 10.0
5.0 54.5 Herald Control % 63.6 1.0
6.0 46.7 Baron Control % 35.7 9.0
3.0 Quality Wins? 1.0
42.9 % of wins as Quality 33.3

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

I’m generally pretty afraid of favorites right now so there has to be a sizeable advantage on the market price for me to want to back one and I think we have enough of an advantage here. There is a gigantic rift in agnostic gold per minute between the top six teams and the bottom four and it’s right here. Generally speaking that tells you who is able to pick up the most gold from the map without relying on the variance of actually picking up kills. These are that sixth and seventh team and there is more than a 70 gold delta between the two. Anyway I digress.

Europe is starting into the top six and the bottom four is the TL:DR. The bottom four are Astralis, Excel, Schalke, and SK Gaming pretty clearly. Vitality have poor results relative to their actual performance but they’re the borderline or gatekeeper team.

I’m just backing Misfits across the board here. This actually feels pretty cheap to me. I rarely bet first blood but this is enough of a cushion where I’d actually consider it. First blood shows the largest edge on market price but it’s a fairly high variance market so keep that in mind. First dragon is actually a decent look as well given Schalke’s abysmal 18.18% first dragon rate.

My Picks:

Prop: Misfits first blood @ -137 (1 unit)

 


 

Team Vitality +165 vs MAD Lions -217

 

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -120 / under -108)

Kill Spread: +6.5 @ -114 / -6.5 @ -118

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 15.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -111  / under -116)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  VIT +112 / MAD -144

Model Suggested Play: Vitality moneyline

Trends
MAD as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) VIT as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 7 3 -353 Matches as Underdogs 2 4 +150
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 3 7 6.8 Against Kill Spread 3 3 +5
Kill Totals 5 5 26.80 Kill Totals 5 1 27.00
Team Kill Totals 3 7 16.20 Team Kill Totals 5 1 11.00
Game Time Totals 7 3 31.1 Game Time Totals 3 3 32.00
Dragons over 4.5 4 6 Dragons over 4.5 3 3
Towers over 11.5 7 3 Towers over 11.5 2 4

 

League Rank MAD Tale of the Tape VIT League Rank
4.0 231.7 Gold Diff @ 10 min 93.8 6.0
6.0 153.8 Gold Diff @ 15 min 192.2 5.0
3.0 -97.4 Gold Diff @ 20 min 35.1 6.0
43.2 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 20.5
3.0 73.1 Gold Diff / min first 20 14.4 5.0
3.0 273.3 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 22.7 6.0
3.0 1835.4 Gold /min (GPM) 1795.7 6.0
55.8 Gold / min vs Avg 16.1
3.0 118.2 Gold Diff / min 16.1 6.0
3.0 1.7 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 0.3 6.0
3.0 1634.3 Kill Agnostic GPM 1617.4 5.0
3.0 91.9 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 32.8 6.0
6.0 1925.0 GPM in wins 1986.1 1.0
6.0 307.5 Gold Diff per min in wins 464.8 1.0
3.0 1678.5 GPM in losses 1637.1 6.0
3.0 -213.1 Gold Diff per min in losses -357.8 9.0
118.4 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 16.3
6.0 0.5 Win-Adjusted GPM 61.6 1.0
6.0 11.9 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 169.2 1.0
4.0 55.3 Dragon Control % 55.3 4.0
1.0 63.6 Herald Control % 47.6 7.0
2.0 62.5 Baron Control % 53.8 5.0
3.0 Quality Wins? 4.0
42.9 % of wins as Quality 80.0

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

I thought Vitality actually nearly clawed that game back against G2 today after a terrible start. MAD obviously had the bottom lane incident that we see from time to time with them. Play aggressive and sometimes you get punished for it.

Maybe I’m missing something, I don’t know but I don’t really see why MAD Lions are favored this heavily given their performance this season. This sort of line suggests that they’ve been dominant and that’s simply not the case. Good? Yes. This is a disrespectful number for Vitality to me. I think some of the shine is finally wearing off for most people and I was never really as bullish on this team as others but this feels a way off.

My Picks:

Moneyline: Vitality +165 (1 unit)

Prop: Vitality first dragon @ -101 (1.01 units)

 


 

Rogue -455 vs Astralis +319

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -114 / under -114)

Kill Spread: -8.5 @ -112 / +8.5 @ -120

Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 8.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -122 / under -106)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  ROG -482 / AST +334

Model Suggested Play: none

Trends
ROG as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) AST as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 9 3 -299 Matches as Underdogs 4 7 +239
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 6 6 6.0 Against Kill Spread 7 4 +7
Kill Totals 5 7 25.92 Kill Totals 4 7 26.41
Team Kill Totals 6 6 15.25 Team Kill Totals 8 3 9.86
Game Time Totals 6 6 31.7 Game Time Totals 7 4 31.64
Dragons over 4.5 6 6 Dragons over 4.5 6 5
Towers over 11.5 8 4 Towers over 11.5 5 6

 

 

League Rank ROG Tale of the Tape AST League Rank
3.0 312.5 Gold Diff @ 10 min -876.4 10.0
1.0 1351.5 Gold Diff @ 15 min -1835.4 10.0
2.0 1199.9 Gold Diff @ 20 min -1746.8 9.0
88.2 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -63.6
1.0 134.0 Gold Diff / min first 20 -107.5 9.0
1.0 421.7 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -17.8 7.0
2.0 1866.5 Gold /min (GPM) 1707.5 7.0
86.9 Gold / min vs Avg -72.1
2.0 143.8 Gold Diff / min -118.0 8.0
2.0 2.1 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -1.7 8.0
1.0 1693.3 Kill Agnostic GPM 1538.6 8.0
1.0 134.7 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -100.7 9.0
5.0 1939.6 GPM in wins 1827.0 10.0
5.0 318.8 Gold Diff per min in wins 126.7 10.0
4.0 1671.6 GPM in losses 1607.9 7.0
6.0 -323.0 Gold Diff per min in losses -322.0 5.0
143.9 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -117.8
5.0 15.2 Win-Adjusted GPM -97.5 10.0
5.0 23.2 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -168.9 10.0
6.0 46.9 Dragon Control % 39.3 8.0
4.0 59.1 Herald Control % 45.5 8.0
4.0 56.3 Baron Control % 38.9 8.0
6.0 Quality Wins? 0.0
75.0 % of wins as Quality 0.0

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

 

Right away the model flagged a number of the neutral objectives over and it makes a lot of sense because the time total over is a pretty big edge on the market price. The catch here is that Rogue against bottom four teams have gone under the 29.1 minute mark in all but one game, their average is just up from their matches against top six squads. Still, Astralis have a knack for dragging games out regardless of their competition.

The dragon over and tower total overs are both intriguing here. 45.45% of Rogue games end up going over 12.5 towers, 54.55% of Astralis games do the same. The market price on this is suggesting 37.45% implied odds. Similar on the over 4.5 dragon price. We’ve actually seen towers dropping at an increased rate across the globe on the most recent two patches with a lot more aggressive cross map trading to get the gold from tier twos.

I like OVER 12.5 towers given the number as well as Rogue first tower.

 

My Picks:

Prop: Rogue first tower @ -333 (1 unit)

Prop: OVER 12.5 towers @ +167 (1 unit)

 


G2 Esports -114 vs Fnatic -106

 

Kill Total: 29.5 (over -110 / under -120)

Kill Spread: -2.5 @ -125 / +2.5 @ -106

Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 13.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -114 / under -114)

(odds via Pinnacle)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  G2 +165 / FNC -203

Model Suggested Play: Fnatic moneyline

Trends
G2 as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) FNC as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 5 5 -306 Matches as Underdogs 2 1 +168
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 2 8 6.5 Against Kill Spread 3 0 +7
Kill Totals 4 6 27.50 Kill Totals 2 1 28.83
Team Kill Totals 3 7 16.40 Team Kill Totals 3 0 11.17
Game Time Totals 5 5 31.6 Game Time Totals 1 2 31.67
Dragons over 4.5 3 7 Dragons over 4.5 0 3
Towers over 11.5 5 5 Towers over 11.5 2 1

 

 

League Rank G2 Tale of the Tape FNC League Rank
2.0 699.9 Gold Diff @ 10 min 1569.0 1.0
4.0 688.8 Gold Diff @ 15 min 762.7 3.0
4.0 525.4 Gold Diff @ 20 min 274.0 1.0
19.6 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 85.5
6.0 12.4 Gold Diff / min first 20 87.2 2.0
5.0 72.9 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 419.9 2.0
4.0 1828.2 Gold /min (GPM) 1926.2 1.0
48.6 Gold / min vs Avg 146.7
5.0 72.9 Gold Diff / min 197.1 1.0
5.0 0.9 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 2.7 1.0
4.0 1631.8 Kill Agnostic GPM 1671.1 2.0
4.0 51.8 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 125.6 2.0
3.0 1981.0 GPM in wins 1982.7 2.0
3.0 328.3 Gold Diff per min in wins 328.0 4.0
5.0 1644.9 GPM in losses 1775.8 1.0
4.0 -233.7 Gold Diff per min in losses -152.0 1.0
73.0 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 197.3
3.0 56.5 Win-Adjusted GPM 58.2 2.0
3.0 32.7 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 32.4 4.0
2.0 64.4 Dragon Control % 66.0 1.0
10.0 20.0 Herald Control % 61.9 3.0
3.0 61.5 Baron Control % 80.0 1.0
4.0 Quality Wins? 4.0
66.7 % of wins as Quality 50.0

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Did I miss something here? Fnatic look like the best team in the West right now. I know it’s G2 but come on is this serious?

My Picks:

Moneyline: Fnatic -106 (2.12 units)

 

 


LCS Summer 2021

Week Seven – Day Two

 

 

 

Cloud 9 -370 vs Counter Logic Gaming +270

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -108 / under -122)

Kill Spread: -7.5 @ -110 / +7.5 @ -119

Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 8.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -179 / under +136)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  C9 -269 / CLG +205

Model Suggested Play: CLG moneyline

Trends
C9 as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) CLG as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 9 9 -335 Matches as Underdogs 3 11 +153
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 7 11 6.1 Against Kill Spread 4 10 +5
Kill Totals 7 11 24.56 Kill Totals 7 7 24.57
Team Kill Totals 8 10 14.67 Team Kill Totals 4 10 9.64
Game Time Totals 11 7 31.1 Game Time Totals 8 6 31.79
Dragons over 4.5 11 7 Dragons over 4.5 9 5
Towers over 11.5 11 7 Towers over 11.5 7 7

 

 

League Rank C9 Tale of the Tape CLG League Rank
5 -82.3 Gold Diff @ 10 min -627.4 9
6 -35.2 Gold Diff @ 15 min -1179.7 10
3 339.6 Gold Diff @ 20 min -1895.1 9
19.7 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -52.0
3 45.0 Gold Diff / min first 20 -57.0 9
2 229.4 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -321.3 9
2 1871.5 Gold /min (GPM) 1678.7 9
90.3 Gold / min vs Avg -102.5
3 76.2 Gold Diff / min -154.9 9
4 1.0 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -2.2 9
2 1685.1 Kill Agnostic GPM 1542.7 8
3 49.1 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -99.9 9
3 1636.0 Opp Kill Agnostic GPM 1642.7 2
1 2118.6 GPM in wins 1921.6 5
1 415.6 Gold Diff per min in wins 319.0 6
4 1624.4 GPM in losses 1585.2 7
2 -263.2 Gold Diff per min in losses -337.2 6
80.6 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -150.5
1 175.0 Win-Adjusted GPM -21.9 5
1 105.1 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 8.4 6
7 47.0 Dragon Control % 38.6 9
5 47.2 Herald Control % 37.1 10
6 44.0 Baron Control % 42.3 7
7.0 Quality Wins? 4.0
77.8 % of wins as Quality 80.0

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

The hit on Immortals was a nice one yesterday but as I discussed then, it was mostly just that the number was too big. Immortals are a competent team and that game was wild and whacky all around. Eventually the Kalista got outscaled and that’s really all it was. You can’t overreact in situations like that. CLG are significantly less competent. You can see in the advanced metrics that Cloud 9 are still doing a lot of things well which is why it’s frustrating to see this team struggling to rack up wins. Cloud 9 are good, they’re just not winning games right now but I fully expect them to win in this spot. CLG are not good.

Kill total unders as well as the over 4.5 dragons were the two main things tagged when I punched this one in. I’ll be taking the over dragons. Cloud 9 tend to win fast with a 29.49 minute game time in wins but CLG have a very long average game time even if you take the outliers out of the equation and that’s in both wins and losses. 33.34 minutes in losses. The time total market price is fair so I think the over dragons is the best way to play this angle.

My Picks:

Prop: OVER 4.5 dragons @ -109 (1.09 units)

 

 


 

Golden Guardians -101 vs Dignitas -127

 

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -111 / under -118)

Kill Spread: +0.5 @ -118 / -0.5 @ -111

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 12.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -115 / under -112)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  GGS -199 / DIG +152

Model Suggested Play: Golden Guardians moneyline (strong)

 

Trends
DIG as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) GGS as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 4 1 -159 Matches as Underdogs 8 11 +249
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 4 1 2.7 Against Kill Spread 13 6 +7
Kill Totals 4 1 25.50 Kill Totals 13 6 24.82
Team Kill Totals 4 1 13.50 Team Kill Totals 14 5 8.92
Game Time Totals 3 2 31.8 Game Time Totals 10 9 31.16
Dragons over 4.5 2 3 Dragons over 4.5 8 11
Towers over 11.5 3 2 Towers over 11.5 13 6

 

 

League Rank DIG Tale of the Tape GGS League Rank
10 -640.8 Gold Diff @ 10 min -236.9 7
7 -196.2 Gold Diff @ 15 min 503.3 3
8 -15.9 Gold Diff @ 20 min 1121.0 6
-13.9 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -1.4
8 -37.3 Gold Diff / min first 20 -18.7 6
8 -266.7 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -34.3 7
8 1711.2 Gold /min (GPM) 1798.3 5
-70.0 Gold / min vs Avg 17.1
8 -98.8 Gold Diff / min -98.4 7
8 -1.4 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -1.2 7
9 1538.1 Kill Agnostic GPM 1623.5 5
8 -94.4 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -42.2 7
4 1632.6 Opp Kill Agnostic GPM 1665.8 1
8 1893.5 GPM in wins 1906.7 7
7 294.2 Gold Diff per min in wins 289.9 8
6 1595.1 GPM in losses 1729.3 1
8 -348.9 Gold Diff per min in losses -345.5 7
-94.4 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -94.0
8 -50.0 Win-Adjusted GPM -36.8 7
7 -16.3 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -20.6 8
8 42.9 Dragon Control % 63.6 1
4 54.3 Herald Control % 58.8 3
10 35.0 Baron Control % 39.1 9
3.0 Quality Wins? 2.0
42.9 % of wins as Quality 28.6

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

What a world eh? Of the four underdog wins in the LCS Friday night these two also picked up a few in very decisive wins GGS over EG and Dignitas over 100 Thieves. That’s right, these two motley crews managed to beat what many consider the top two teams in the LCS right now. Crazy night that Friday night.

The model thinks the wrong team is favored here and I never in a million years thought I’d be saying this but I agree. Golden Guardians have been the better team in Summer and they’re continuing to improve. Dignitas have single performances that look good but Golden Guardians have been much more consistent and … god this is gross to say but they’ve actually been a fairly solid fundamental team this Summer… what has this come to. Golden Guardians are legitimately better now and I think they might actually be the sixth best team in the LCS right now. I like them over Dignitas here.

My Picks:

Moneyline: Golden Guardians -101 (1.01 units)

 


100 Thieves -137 vs Team Liquid +107

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -109 / under -120)

Kill Spread: -2.5 @ -114 / +2.5 @ -115

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 11.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -127 / under -103)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  100T -199 / TL +153

Model Suggested Play: 100T moneyline

Trends
100T as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) TL as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 11 5 -320 Matches as Underdogs 0 4 +59
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 8 8 6.3 Against Kill Spread 0 4 +3
Kill Totals 6 10 24.50 Kill Totals 1 3 25.00
Team Kill Totals 6 10 14.69 Team Kill Totals 0 4 12.00
Game Time Totals 6 10 31.9 Game Time Totals 2 2 32.25
Dragons over 4.5 6 10 Dragons over 4.5 3 1
Towers over 11.5 9 7 Towers over 11.5 3 1

 

 

League Rank 100T Tale of the Tape TL League Rank
2 493.5 Gold Diff @ 10 min -360.8 8
1 1144.0 Gold Diff @ 15 min -305.9 8
1 1626.8 Gold Diff @ 20 min -670.6 4
55.2 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -1.1
1 124.6 Gold Diff / min first 20 6.6 5
1 346.3 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 204.8 3
3 1829.1 Gold /min (GPM) 1805.1 4
47.9 Gold / min vs Avg 23.9
1 181.8 Gold Diff / min 75.3 4
1 2.5 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 1.1 3
3 1629.8 Kill Agnostic GPM 1626.1 4
1 114.8 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 40.1 4
10 1515.0 Opp Kill Agnostic GPM 1585.9 8
6 1906.8 GPM in wins 1936.0 4
3 345.9 Gold Diff per min in wins 362.0 2
10 1557.5 GPM in losses 1641.6 2
10 -392.6 Gold Diff per min in losses -283.0 3
186.2 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 79.7
6 -36.8 Win-Adjusted GPM -7.6 4
3 35.4 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 51.4 2
2 60.8 Dragon Control % 54.0 4
6 45.2 Herald Control % 39.4 9
2 66.7 Baron Control % 56.5 3
10.0 Quality Wins? 7.0
71.4 % of wins as Quality 70.0

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

100 Thieves have had a handful of really bizarre losses this season but I still think they’re the best team in the LCS, they just happen to get completely stomped in their losses as evidenced by their “in losses” economy numbers above.

Liquid remain a solid, fundamentally sound team that are going to be in that title conversation whether people like it or not along with 100T, EG, and maybe one other C9 or TSM?.

These two teams both prefer to dragon scale but 100T have a much more explosive early game on average so it’s kind of interesting handicapping them in matchups like this.

I like 100 Thieves to win this one but I’m not quite as bullish (and bearish on TL) as the model is so I’m looking elsewhere in this contest. The kill total under was the strongest edge on the board. I project a 23.442 kill total and the frequencies and volatility ratings for these teams on these numbers also point to an under. Both boxes checked, stylistically it makes a lot of sense as well. Three boxes checked, play the under.

My Picks:

Kill Total: UNDER 24.5 @ -120 (1 unit)

 


 

TSM -238 vs Immortals +182

 

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -110 / under -119)

Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -120 / +5.5 @ -109

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -120 / under -108)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  TSM -189 / IMT +147

Model Suggested Play: Immortals moneyline (light)

Trends
TSM as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) IMT as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 9 6 -270 Matches as Underdogs 3 7 +171
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 4 11 5.7 Against Kill Spread 5 5 +5
Kill Totals 4 11 24.23 Kill Totals 5 5 23.70
Team Kill Totals 4 11 14.30 Team Kill Totals 5 5 9.30
Game Time Totals 6 9 32.1 Game Time Totals 7 3 31.60
Dragons over 4.5 5 10 Dragons over 4.5 7 3
Towers over 11.5 8 7 Towers over 11.5 6 4

 

 

League Rank TSM Tale of the Tape IMT League Rank
3 430.9 Gold Diff @ 10 min 133.4 4
5 39.4 Gold Diff @ 15 min 442.5 4
5 -20.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min -333.8 7
-16.4 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 19.1
4 14.9 Gold Diff / min first 20 -24.8 7
5 109.2 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 24.7 6
7 1752.0 Gold /min (GPM) 1766.8 6
-29.2 Gold / min vs Avg -14.5
5 37.4 Gold Diff / min -24.9 6
5 0.5 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -0.4 6
6 1597.3 Kill Agnostic GPM 1591.4 7
5 28.8 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -31.1 6
9 1568.5 Opp Kill Agnostic GPM 1622.5 6
10 1848.7 GPM in wins 1956.3 3
9 218.1 Gold Diff per min in wins 333.8 4
8 1577.5 GPM in losses 1615.1 5
4 -303.6 Gold Diff per min in losses -311.9 5
41.8 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -20.5
10 -94.8 Win-Adjusted GPM 12.8 3
9 -92.5 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 23.3 4
5 52.9 Dragon Control % 48.8 6
2 62.9 Herald Control % 44.4 7
1 69.2 Baron Control % 48.0 5
5.0 Quality Wins? 5.0
41.7 % of wins as Quality 62.5

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

TSM lost a bit of a shocker against the upstart FlyQuest yesterday in a game that they had full control of, lost a single fight prepping for a dragon and consequently the game off of it. These kinds of games  are happening often in this metagame and while you can be critical of the mistakes in setting up, something TSM have actually not been bad at in general, it’s tough to really draw any conclusion from that game other than FlyQuest got a little lucky. TSM controlled the game completely until that mistake. To me that’s more important generally speaking.

I normally shy away from “light” suggested plays by the model and am more selective but I think in this case I actually think these two teams, in their current forms are fairly evenly matched. TSM are better sure but not by this much. I’m more bullish on Immortals than the model is.

My Picks:

Moneyline: Immortals +182 (1 unit)

 


 

FlyQuest +161 vs Evil Geniuses -208

 

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -111 / under -118)

Kill Spread: +6.5 @ -114 / -6.5 @ -114

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 15.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -102 / under -127)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  EG -992 / FLY +566

Model Suggested Play: EG moneyline

Trends
EG as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) FLY as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 6 4 -207 Matches as Underdogs 7 10 +176
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 4 6 5.8 Against Kill Spread 9 8 +6
Kill Totals 9 1 26.10 Kill Totals 7 10 24.79
Team Kill Totals 7 3 15.00 Team Kill Totals 9 8 9.62
Game Time Totals 6 4 31.7 Game Time Totals 7 10 31.71
Dragons over 4.5 7 3 Dragons over 4.5 9 8
Towers over 11.5 7 3 Towers over 11.5 12 5

 

League Rank EG Tale of the Tape FLY League Rank
1 545.7 Gold Diff @ 10 min -94.6 6
2 999.6 Gold Diff @ 15 min -1097.8 9
2 1477.5 Gold Diff @ 20 min -1099.4 10
41.1 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -50.3
2 90.0 Gold Diff / min first 20 -91.7 10
4 144.3 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -434.1 10
1 1932.2 Gold /min (GPM) 1667.1 10
151.0 Gold / min vs Avg -114.1
2 144.3 Gold Diff / min -182.1 10
2 2.1 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -2.6 10
1 1710.8 Kill Agnostic GPM 1527.8 10
2 91.6 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -102.9 10
7 1619.3 Opp Kill Agnostic GPM 1630.7 5
2 2082.7 GPM in wins 1864.5 9
5 323.8 Gold Diff per min in wins 203.1 10
3 1631.1 GPM in losses 1568.4 9
1 -214.7 Gold Diff per min in losses -374.7 9
148.7 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -177.7
2 139.2 Win-Adjusted GPM -79.1 9
5 13.3 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -107.5 10
3 54.7 Dragon Control % 37.5 10
1 63.9 Herald Control % 42.4 8
4 55.6 Baron Control % 42.3 7
7.0 Quality Wins? 4.0
58.3 % of wins as Quality 66.7

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

The upstart kids from FlyQuest academy stole one yesterday to keep their win streak going but they were getting absolutely wrecked before that fateful play. Props to the kids for keeping their heads in the game that’s tough to do for younger squads.

I think a lot of people are going to want to get cute here and back FlyQuest because of the streak and EG losing yesterday but I’m going the opposite. I’m definitely not as bullish as the model on FlyQuest obviously because it’s factoring the season. I upticked FlyQuest’s weight to just games with this lineup and it’s still a huge edge on the market price for FlyQuest.

I think EG are going to completely obliterate this team in a wake up call game.

My Picks:

Moneyline: Evil Geniuses -208 (2.08 units)

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and you can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

 

 

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