Friday January 15th Recap
Fredit BRION vs Gen.G (Net: -0.28 units)
Bdd quietly and efficiently took over this series and Gen.G cruised to a clinical 2-0. As with another team we’ll mention below, this was a tough team to catch on your debut outing. At least Brion looked like they were willing to try out some counterpicks right off the bat with the Quinn top lane. Worth considering for the future.
DAMWON vs T1 (Net: +0.55 units)
This was a classic and it’s only January.
T1 were the better team in this series overall but a single mistake in game three was all DAMWON needed to come roaring back to steal the series.
Ellim and Keria, who had been outstanding in this series until this, were clearing vision around the baron pit, Ghost tagged the baron with a Kaisa W to check it, the baron aggro’d onto Ellim who bolted out of the pit but DAMWON aggressively jumped on the pick and this set in motion what would end up being a comeback from a 4000 gold deficit to take the win. T1 still nearly turned a few of these post momentum swing fights when the gold was even. Gumayusi opened game three 8/0/2 with an early quadra on Samira and looked primed to take the series but T1 made the fatal mistake.
The margins are thin when you’re facing teams as good as DAMWON. Credit to them for punishing and finding perhaps one of the only windows back into this game, seeing as they had rolled cloud soul which would not have mattered as much with the superior 5v5 comp T1 had. You can’t make mistakes like this against DAMWON, they’re just too good. With that in mind, the fact that T1 were immediately competitive with DAMWON is something to be optimistic about. Faker also looked excellent in this series after Clozer went absolutely berserk against Hanwha Life.
Speaking of that… don’t try to make sense of T1’s lineup shuffling. They have a stable of absolute stud players. They should use them all, keep everyone fresh, keep the competition to keep everyone sharp. It’s annoying for DFS, it’s great for a League of Legends team.
Rogue Warriors vs eStar (Net: no action)
The first game of this series was the most on-brand Rogue Warriors game I’ve ever seen and one of the main reasons why I’ll continue to like them as a punch up underdog but seriously doubt their consistency over a full sample.
They just fight everything. Seemingly no matter what. It’s fun, it’s enjoyable to casual fans, it’s also garbage League of Legends. This game was winnable if they thought for even a second about what they were doing in a lot of these situations. eStar did not play particularly well in this game either. Maybe this new look roster will grow out of their old RW shell but it’s not looking like it so far.
Game two was a shellacking.
TOP Esports vs RareAtom (Net: -2.39 units)
TOP got the better of RareAtom in this one. The overall individual player quality showed up and despite some goofing around playing with their food at the end of the first game, TOP managed to take care of business and get off the schneid.
This was a tough out for RareAtom to catch in their first series. A TOP Esports that had lost their first back-to-back series since April isn’t what you want. Their schedule stays tough for the next few matches before easing up. This series didn’t change my evaluation of either of these teams.
100 Thieves vs TSM (Net: +2.01 units)
CLG vs Liquid (Net: +1 unit)
Cloud 9 vs Evil Geniuses (Net: +1.845 units)
Dignitas vs FlyQuest (Net: -0.58 units)
Golden Guardians vs CLG (Net: no action)
LPL Net Total: -2.39 units
LCK Net Total: +0.27 units
LCS Lock-In Net Total: +4.775 units
Daily Net Total: +2.655 units
(I’m going to copy/paste this intro from day one into the first handful of days of matches as a reminder for those just joining us)
“Predicting the metagame”
I’ve done some research into what has been played during the offseason tournaments and on the current patch but while I think it’s important to have a general idea of what’s going on in terms of the champions picked and style of the game in its current state, it can be a futile endeavor to predict every team’s tendencies. Even if you consider your read on the game to be very accurate, it doesn’t mean that all teams, coaches, and players will act rationally and hold the same opinion. For these reasons I try to abstain from making decisive calls based on the metagame in the first few weeks.
That leads me to my next point….
Cognitive Biases and Overall Approach to Opening Weeks
How you decide to attack the first few weeks depends heavily on your risk tolerance but no matter what you choose to do it’s important that you have structure within your process. Over the years I’ve been very aggressive early on in the year because I trust my evaluation of the offseason more than the books and there are frequently very bad lines. There are pros and cons to this approach. While you might be “ahead of the curve” on a team, you could also get yourself in trouble “sticking to your guns” for too long. Last year, for example, I was overconfident that TSM were a good team based on my pre-season evaluation and continued backing them over and over insisting that they’d eventually meet my expectations. Long story, short; they never did.
Another way to play the early season is to be very selective and take more of a “wait and see” approach. This is more what I’ll be doing this season with a few exceptions for what I think are extremely undervalued and overvalued teams.
I’ll be discussing the different cognitive biases over the course of this season, likely in an evergreen style article or podcast but I think the two that come into play this early are overconfidence and confirmation bias if you are “right” about a team in the first few games. It’s a long season folks and the first few weeks mean very little in the grand scheme of things.
In short, I’ll be taking a less aggressive and more of the aforementioned “wait and see” approach to the opening weeks than I have in the past. Staking will be smaller until we get a decent picture of what each of these teams starts to look like and then we’ll ramp up from there along with the models and our eyes collecting more data. Of course, there are going to be a few exceptions to this. There are a handful of teams that I think are not just undervalued, but extremely undervalued and we have some bigger picture trends that I’m going to discuss below that I want to take advantage of early on.
Spring Last Year
We had a bit of a bizarre year last year (obviously…) with the first LPL week being played before the league went on hold over concerns about COVID-19 before picking back up again in the second week of March. In a way we got two different week ones. We had 34 matches over those two separate week ones. Let’s take a look at some of the results:
- 8 underdog 2-0’s (LGD def TOP, SN def BLG, EDG def eStar, SN def EDG, RNG def TOP, RW def SN, eStar def RW). Admittedly a few of these look a bit silly in hindsight such as eStar who dominated the rest of Spring split and Suning being underdogs to BLG only to eventually end up in World finals.
- Favorites had a combined 20-14 moneyline record with average odds of -521 over the 34 matches. (underdogs averaged +237 on the moneyline)
- Favorites went a combined 13-21 against the map spread with average odds just over even at +17.38 (underdogs near even as well at -98.38)
If you would have wagered the same amount on every single underdog map spread through the first two weeks you would have had a +84.35% return on investment. While that seems ridiculous there is a history of this phenomenon across the globe in the major region domestic leagues specifically in the Spring split.
Why is this the case? Some of the good teams had a longer season with a handful of them going to playoffs and the World Championships and the players and coaches don’t get as much preparation time since most take a break while other teams are working (think Super Bowl hangover). Many teams both good and bad are dealing with roster shuffling as players are moved around. The game is also more “chaotic” and “raw” early in the season with the pre-season patch, where most of the major changes to the game for the year take place, only about a month old. It takes awhile to figure the balance out resulting in some over and underpowered champions and higher variance games. There are also coaching and infrastructure changes similar to the players changing teams which can disrupt things.
How the books derive their prices early in the season?
In addition to the points above, books tend to heavily overprice the favorites, especially those that went to the World Championship or finished the Summer season in a high position. They also shade toward popular teams with name brand value that receive a lot of action as favorites. If we look back at Summer 2020 in the LPL anecdotally who would you guess were the most heavily bet and talked about favorites? TOP, Invictus, FunPlus, JDG, Team WE, and Suning are your top six teams in the futures markets and their prices are reflected accordingly in the opening match lines. The books also favor teams that didn’t change much, especially ones that were favorites, like the top six in our case. While they consider other roster moves there isn’t a lot of faith given to unknown qualities. In a traditional sports context this would be like grading a rookie quarterback as a varying amount below league average for example. Some end up performing at about that level, others exceed it, and other still far exceed that expectation.
Tying it all together
Good teams from the previous season with a lot of continuity seem like an attractive position to take but historically they have not been successful early in the season for a litany of reasons (see above). Bad or mediocre teams with a lot of changes or unknown players, especially rookies, aren’t given a lot of respect early on and most people are afraid to back them so it makes sense for the books to lean toward juicing up the favorites. This results in a double whammy situation. Not all unknown players end up bad or below average and if you can figure out the more promising prospects in good situations there’s even more gold to be mined here early in the season.
In the early weeks I’ll be asking a lot of favorites if I’m going to pay the tax that comes with their price tag. Typically you want to operate in the middle, making the case for both teams and weighing your options but I tend to shade more towards the underdogs in the first couple of weeks in combination with a lighter staking structure.
We’ll be touching on these points and more as we go today but I’d encourage you to check out my LPL Pre-Season Power Rankings post where I break down each team and their expected trajectory in greater detail.
LOL Champions Korea (LCK)
Week 1 – Day 4
Liiv Sandbox -145 (-1.5 maps @ +207, +1.5 @ -417)
KT Rolster +111 (+1.5 maps @ -270, -1.5 @ +290)
Total Maps Played: 2.5 (over +103 / under -132)
Kill Total: 24.5 (over -116 / under -112)
Kill Spread: -1.5 @ -118 / +1.5 @ -111
Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 11.5
Time Total: 34:00 (over +125 / under -164)
The LCK does NOT announce starting lineups like the LPL does. Sometimes teams will announce via social media beforehand. Be diligent! These are my anticipated starters but do not take this as gospel!
KT Rolster were slammed by Gen.G in their first series but at the very least kept up with the pace in game two, they were just losing the objective war along the way. Liiv Sandbox played a competitive back-and-forth series bouncing back after a game one loss against Nongshim. They probably should have won considering the lead that they had in game three but a big miscommunication at the third drake fight ended up swinging the momentum back toward Nongshim.
I had both of these teams toward the top of the middle tier of teams in the LCK and they each are coming off of losses in this spot. Sandbox looked better in their loss but they were also not facing Gen.G, who are looking like one of the three elite teams so far. In that series they made a lot of very poor decisions in what ended up being an incredibly sloppy match for both themselves and Nongshim. That makes this a bit of a tricky match to handicap.
Some League of Legends games are effectively over at a very early inflection point it’s just a matter of playing out the game. In these situations the most important information we can collect is the procedures and philosophies of these teams. Is the team that made the mistake doing all of the things they’re supposed to do to get back into the game? Are they taking high percentage, +EV risks or just mindlessly throwing themselves at the enemy? Are they rolling over and giving up? For the winners of the aforementioned inflection point are they maximizing their advantage? Are they pushing their limits too hard? Are they not pushing their advantage enough (akin to letting a team “hang around”)? Are they properly ascertaining the functional strength of their advantage, clearing vision, etc. These are the things you need to be looking out for in situations like this. Sometimes flukey things happen, games get away from a team but the “process” is what we should be looking at.
Team Dynamics were excellent at this last year. Even when they’d fall behind they had a very strong sense of when the best time to throw their hail mary to get back into the game was. They found creative solutions to problems and even though this never really amounted to a lot of wins, over a larger sample size it would have. This is +EV play. It’s not just about the results.
I think these two teams are relatively evenly matched and the results of their first matches aren’t really moving the needle much for me in either direction for either squad. I’ll be taking a light position on the underdogs here.
Given how close I think this series is and the limited sample size with these rosters, each that have a fair amount of turnover, I don’t see any clear and obvious positions in the props or totals markets. Pass.
(I got this at a +128 earlier in the week but for purposes of record keeping will be using current odds)
Moneyline: KT Rolster +111 (0.5 units)
Map Spread: KT Rolster -1.5 maps @ +290 (0.25 units)
Hanwha Life Esports -227 (-1.5 maps @ +132, +1.5 @ -769)
DRX +173 (+1.5 maps @ -169, -1.5 @ +483)
Total Maps Played: 2.5 (over +114 / under -145)
Kill Total: 24.5 (over -104 / under -125)
Kill Spread: -4.5 @ -116 / +4.5 @ -112
Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 10.5
Time Total: 33:00 (over +116 / under -152)
The LCK does NOT announce starting lineups like the LPL does. Sometimes teams will announce via social media beforehand. Be diligent! These are my anticipated starters but do not take this as gospel!
So Hanwha are a team I’m more bearish on than public sentiment but I do have them a good deal better than DRX in my pre-season evaluations. Based on what we’ve seen so far these teams are about what I expected them to be. DRX looked a little better than I thought they’d be but Afreeca lost that series more than they won it and Hanwha Life had to face an extremely difficult opponent in T1 to start things off.
There is an interesting wrinkle to this one and that’s the master and apprentice dynamic with Chovy and Quad (Solca). Solca sat behind Chovy last year so there’s a chance he’s got some “intel” or possibly has a better shot against Chovy than most people do. Clozer handled Chovy, particularly in the volatile game three matchup where he blind picked Irelia into Chovy who was forced onto Viktor (a mistake by the staff in my opinion). It was weird not seeing Chovy play lane phase perfectly like he almost always does but Clozer did get the best of him. Viktor has zero margin for error in that matchup though. Anyway….
Even though I’m not quite as high on Hanwha Life there has already been a reaction to the first two matches in the line movement. Hanwha were -270 on this opener so we’re getting a much better number but is it still a value? I do think Hanwha are going to be a pretty good team and just ran into a buzzsaw for their first series. I like the favorites here. DRX looked ok but were trailing for the majority of that series and if not for a handful of incredibly stupid decisions from Afreeca, likely would have been 2-0’d in that series. I had Afreeca and Hanwha in my A Tier and I’d expect a similar performance, although hopefully much less riddled with dumb, unforced errors by Hanwha Life.
No obvious edges. Pass. If you can get the under 33:00 at a better number (-120ish or better) it’s worth a play.
Moneyline: Hanwha Life -227 (1.135 units)
Map Spread: Hanwha Life -1.5 maps @ +132 (0.5 units)
LOL Pro League (China)
Week 2 – Day 6
Victory Five -625 (-1.5 @ -154, +1.5 @ -3333)
LGD Gaming +402 (+1.5 @ +120, -1.5 @ +1012)
Total Maps Played: 2.5 (over +161 / under -208)
Kill Total: 26.5 (over -102 / under -127)
Kill Spread: -7.5 @ -122 / +7.5 @ -106
Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 8.5
Time Total: 31:00 (over -125 / under -104)
V5 – Langx, Weiwei, Mole, Trigger, ppgod
LGD – Cult, Kui, Uniboy, Garvey, Chance
Oh boy LGD… I was pretty down on this team going into this season after their roster was completely gutted and they didn’t replace what I consider a suspect coaching staff. They bring in Uniboy from the former LMS and now PCS, Garvey is learning a new roll after transferring from top lane, Cult and Chance we’ve seen unimpressive performances from in the past and they’ve struggled to crack multiple starting lineups. Kui is the new face. The youngster has been with LGD Young for a year now and from the handful of games I caught with him looks pretty solid. His career numbers don’t really jump off the page but they are better than average for junglers in the LDL overall. He could be pretty good.
If not for a lucky dragon steal by Team WE mid laner Shanks to secure infernal soul in game three, Team WE likely would have lost on an overextension that Victory Five punished beautifully to turn this game in their favor. Game one and three were close in that series and game two was a complete steamrolling by Victory Five. Victory Five still looks like an excellent pace/tempo team and while they weren’t perfect in that first series they still looked fairly sharp and in good form overall.
These types of teams are extremely difficult for “new” teams to deal with. LGD are a bit of a hodge podge roster of fringe starters and former subs. They’ve also got a rookie jungler who is going to have to go up against a formidable duo in Weiwei+Mole. I don’t like favorites very often in the early weeks, especially in the LPL, but I think Victory Five are going to roll here.
UPDATE: Former LCK pro Trigger is getting the start at ADC for V5. Trigger has shown flashes and has been at the very least serviceable in his time in the LCK albeit mostly on very bad teams. I personally think he’s a little better than y4 overall. Trigger, coming up in the Korean development system, is much less likely to make fatal mistakes but might not consistently make the aggressive play. It’s not that Trigger is conservative by any stretch but he’s just not quite as aggressive as y4. Overall I think this is a slight upgrade providing they have any kind of chemistry. V5 just need their ADC to not make mistakes and they’ll be a good team, Trigger can do that.
31:00 is a very low time total but this is a fair price. I want to attack the fact that V5 are likely to control this end-to-end. The kill total at 26.5 is nice but even better looking, to me at least, is the under 4.5 drakes.
Map Spread: Victory Five -1.5 maps @ -154 (1.54 units)
Prop: Map 1 UNDER 4.5 dragons slain @ -110 (0.55 units)
Prop: Map 2 UNDER 4.5 dragons slain @ -110 (0.55 units)
Prop: Map 3 UNDER 4.5 dragons slain @ -110 (0.55 units)
EDward Gaming +174 (+1.5 maps @ -185, -1.5 @ +445)
FunPlus Phoenix -227 (-1.5 maps @ +144, +1.5 @ -714)
Total Maps Played: 2.5 (over +100 / under -127)
Kill Total: 26.5 (over -115 / under -114)
Kill Spread: +4.5 @ -111 / -4.5 @ -118
Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 15.5
Time Total: 33:00 (over -102 / under -128)
FPX – Nuguri, Tian, Doinb, Lwx, Crisp
EDG – Flandre, Jiejie, Scout, Viper, Meiko
This line has moved up from when we discussed this on The Gold Card Podcast this week partially from adjustment as we approach game time and partially toward FPX.
It’s not often that we get a previous match sample of one and it’s the same team with two teams coming in to face each other. Obviously it doesn’t mean everything but it’s interesting. Other than a few wonky teleport situations that looked like miscommunications with Nuguri, the former world champs comfortably handled an OMG squad that’s looking to be a bottom of the table team again. EDG faced OMG on opening day and after a dominant game one, looked a little bit shaky the rest of the way. I mentioned it in my recap of that match but until you see some film on a team and get an idea for what they want to be doing it can be a little tricky to just play “blind” which is one of many reasons why underdogs thrive early in the season. I also mentioned that “I’m not concerned about my optimistic outlook for EDG. It’s one match.”
FPX had the luxury of watching what OMG opened the season with against EDG while they had to solve that puzzle on the fly. OMG wanted to play multi-global ultimates and play to side lanes. FPX just banned Taliyah and Pantheon in both games and baited the Galio pick. It’s much easier when you know what to expect.
I had these two teams rated right next to each other at #5 and #6 in my larger S Tier. This number is based way too much on hype and public perception. After an underwhelming Summer 2020 where they continued to be overpriced for their quality of play, FPX added Nuguri and suddenly they’re even more overpriced in the futures markets. I discussed it in my pre-season evaluation of them but despite the switch up between Khan and GimGoon last season, the top lane was far from the issue with FPX’s play. In fact Khan and GimGoon both ranked in my top six top laners in the league. Even if you consider Nuguri a major upgrade it doesn’t justify this inflation of the price on FPX. He looked good in the first series but it wasn’t without fault as I mentioned with the teleport miscommunications earlier. Not to mention he’s up against Flandre, a stud in his own right.
This is a slam dunk EDG position for me. My priors make this EDG favored, my “eye test” evaluation makes this even, my pre-season power rankings make this even.
Unless I see clear and obvious advantages in the derivative markets I’ll be waiting for more data. These mostly look fairly priced, at least by esports standards.
Best value I see on the board is under 4.5 dragons at +121. The under 26.5 is also worth consideration.
Map Spread: EDG +1.5 maps @ -185 (1.85 units)
Moneyline: EDG +174 (1 unit)
Map Spread: EDG -1.5 maps @ +454 (0.5 units)
Prop: Map 1 UNDER 4.5 dragons slain @ +121 (0.25 units)
Prop: Map 2 UNDER 4.5 dragons slain @ +123 (0.25 units)
Prop: Map 3 UNDER 4.5 dragons slain @ +127 (0.25 units)
LCS Lock-In Tournament
Week 1 – Day 2
It’s critical not to overreact to one day of games but a few things stood out Friday night. 100 Thieves are dialed in and in good form, CLG’s visa issues and late replacement arrivals are going to make it challenging for them, and absolutely nobody deserves to be laying big moneylines.
Immortals +180 vs Evil Geniuses -238
Kill Total: 24.5 (over -110 / under -118)
Kill Spread: +8.5 @ -128 / -8.5 @ -208
Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 15.5
Time Total: 32:00 (over -104 / under -125)
Reminder: Immortals will be starting Joey (support), Keithe (ADC), and Potluck (jungle) for this tournament.
We haven’t seen Immortals yet but Evil Geniuses took down C9 in a marathon 45 minute slugfest. I mentioned above not overreacting to results and that’s the case here. Evil Geniuses looked pretty sharp but Immortals have the advantage of not having played on day one to possibly have an edge in drafts. I also think this Immortals lineup is more than capable of beating anyone. I had Immortals and Dignitas in the bottom tier in my pre-season evaluation and mentioned in that post that I don’t think we’re likely to have a truly horrible last place team in the LCS. You’re always going to have a last place team but not every last place team is 2020 Spring Victory Five or 2019 Jin Air. Immortals should be competitive here. Split stake between the spread and moneyline for the underdogs.
I’ll also be taking the under. Other than the C9/EG game which went 45 minutes, every single other match went 24 or fewer. The metagame leans towards under in most scenarios with teams prioritizing scaling up. The only time you’re going to get overs is when you get that extra five to ten minutes tacked on to the game from a dragon steal or more random fights. The average game even in the LPL is only 25 right now and the LCS has historically been about 2.5-3.0 kills fewer on average over the past handful of years.
Kill Spread: Immortals +8.5 kills @ -128 (0.96 units)
Moneyline: Immortals +180 (0.25 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 24.5 @ -118 (1.18 units)
Golden Guardians +261 vs Team Solo Mid -370
Kill Total: 23.5 (over -114 / under -115)
Kill Spread: +7.5 @ -110 / -7.5 @ -118
Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 15.5
Time Total: 31:00 (over -122 / under -106)
That game got away from TSM yesterday. It’s really easy to overreact to a loss like that but the truth is that most games of LOL are essentially over early in the game and it’s just a matter of playing it out. Good teams play the game out correctly, like 100 Thieves did. It doesn’t make a team bad that they lost to a good team that picked up a big early advantage. You can criticize how that happened but the rest of the game, as mentioned yesterday, is just a matter of observing process. Were they doing the right things to get back in? etc.
Eventually this TSM team is going to be very good but they’re going to have a rough start given that they’ve only just gotten together in recent weeks due to imports. In tournaments like this continuity is almost more important than player quality unless it’s a drastic advantage. Those that have had an extended amount of practice time already are going to be at a huge advantage (see 100T). This line has severely dropped from the -500 it was yesterday which makes me want to get in on the favorites but with a drastic line move, the kill spread didn’t entirely match the moneyline move. This should be a 6.5 kill spread now based on how much the match line has moved and instead it’s only dropped to a juiced version of the same spread. I’ll be taking the underdog spread and sprinkling a little on the moneyline. Niles and Iconic got the rookie nerves out and picked up a win, I think it’s totally reasonable we see another.
I got this last night at a better number. At this one you’re missing a lot of closing line value as you could’ve had the Guardians at over +300 yesterday but I still think this is worth a play and for the purposes of record keeping I’ll be using the current number here.
Another kill total under play. There’s a chance Golden Guardians are a bit sloppy and rowdy as the young guns in the league but I’ll be playing every kill total under today. I’m also taking the over time total in this one. NA is a slower league, most of these teams are taking it slow and steady. 31 is too low a number. Sure there are tempo comps that are very solid right now and we saw a few blowouts but I doubt we see either of these teams really running the other over.
Kill Spread: Golden Guardians +7.5 kills @ -110 (0.55 units)
Moneyline: Golden Guardians +261 (0.5 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 23.5 @ -115 (1.15 units)
Time Total: OVER 31:00 @ -122 (1.22 units)
Cloud 9 -385 vs FlyQuest +273
Kill Total: 26.5 (over -108 / under -120)
Kill Spread: -7.5 @ -125 / +7.5 @ -104
Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 9.5
Time Total: 32:00 (over +110 / under -143)
FlyQuest looked a little out of sorts yesterday and this one got away from them quite a bit. Credit to Dignitas who had an excellent, well-rounded draft capable of snowballing a lead as well. I think FlyQuest and C9 both will be fine with time.
To me this is an underdog or nothing position for sides. I’ll be passing there and sticking to just the under kill total.
Kill Total: UNDER 26.5 @ -120 (1.2 units)
Immortals +117 vs Dignitas -152
Kill Total: 24.5 (over -120 / under -109)
Kill Spread: +4.5 @ -116 / -4.5 @ -112
Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 13.5
Time Total: 34:00 (over -109 / under -119)
Again, a reminder that Immortals are going to be starting Potluck, Keith, and Joey from their Academy team.
Dignitas did look pretty sharp yesterday but that loss was equal parts their performances and FlyQuest looking a bit out of sorts with the replacement jungler. I’ve been preaching continuity reigns supreme in these types of situations and then backed FlyQuest like an idiot yesterday. Serves me right.
I’m going to be taking the dogs here either way. Dignitas are better right now than I think we’ll see them end up long term but I don’t think this team deserves to be laying money to anybody, including Immortals partially with their academy lineup.
Another under kill total but I’m also taking the under 34:00. Slow and steady yes, 34:00 is way too much of an overcorrection.
Moneyline: Immortals +117 (0.5 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 24.5 @ -109 (1.09 units)
Time Total: UNDER 34:00 @ -119 (1.19 units)
Counter Logic Gaming +250 vs 100 Thieves -345
Kill Total: 25.5 (over -111 / under -118)
Kill Spread: +7.5 @ +100 / -7.5 @ -130
Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 15.5
Time Total: 33:00 (over +110 / under -143)
CLG weren’t a complete disaster but you can tell the effect it has when you just picked up a player a few days ago. This is going to be a rough tournament for CLG.
Conversely, 100 Thieves look like they’ve had an incredibly productive offseason and looked in mid-season form immediately yesterday. It’s one game but let’s just say that what I saw on film from them yesterday gives me a lot of hope for my futures positions with them in this tournament.
This will be the one favorite I’m backing today along with yet another kill total under.
Kill Spread: 100 Thieves -7.5 kills @ -130 (0.65 units)
Kill Spread (alt): 100 Thieves -8.5 kills +102 (0.35 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 25.5 @ -118 (1.18 units)
For longer form thoughts on the outlooks for each LCS team check out my Team-by-Team Outlook and Futures Portfolio post. In it I go over my thoughts for each squad, their trajectory, floor and ceiling scenarios, and discuss some futures positions specifically for the Lock-In Tournament.
I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.
Check out The Gold Card Podcast and can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL
(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)