Friday, February 5th Recap

 

I’ll be updating these recaps as I VOD review Friday night so check back later or in the morning if you want any thoughts on these games. Had a few things come up yesterday and today that interrupted my schedule.

LGD Gaming vs TT Gaming (Net: -0.28 units)

Game one of this series TT had built up a 10,000 gold lead, cloud soul, and had taken all three inhibitors of LGD. LGD threw a hail mary all-in for the elder drake, used Taliyah wall to block off enemies from getting there, took the dragon, TT tried to take the fight afterwards and got aced 5-for-2 and LGD won the game down something like 6000 gold.

You only see a few of those a year if any…

Game two TT hard camped the Gragas top and got their Camille fed. From there this game de-volved quickly. Constant fights. LGD got the better of enough of them to pick up four dragons and an ocean soul to end the game. This was really fast-paced but LGD kept their eyes on the prize playing through their fed Olaf to stack objectives.

It was good to see a decent sense of macro by LGD in game two but game one should’ve been a loss. Hard to really do anything to either of these teams in this series it was an absolute fiesta.

EDward Gaming vs Suning Gaming (Net: -6.3025 units)

I’m really disappointed in Suning for not putting up any kind of fight here. Obviously this was a hit to the bankroll which doesn’t help.  EDG played, in my opinion, the best series of their season so far in this one. They were crisp, clean, and were in absolute full control of each of these games.

I still think Suning are probably a decent team but EDG were just really really good today.

Liiv Sandbox vs DAMWON Kia (Net: -1.35 units)

After things went south in the mid game of the first game, Sandbox were actually able to hang tough and keep this one competitive. Game two was very similar.

Sandbox showed a lot of fight in this one but DAMWON were ultimately just in a class above them. We got to see the top lane bruiser Fizz in this one, an interesting counterpick that we see from time-to-tim in certain metagames. Khan had a great showing on it, as you’d hope on a counter.

Gen.G vs Nongshim RedForce (Net: +1.95 units)

Gen.G played the starters and kind of just obliterated Nongshim in both of these games. Rich got put in the dumpster. Not a whole lot to say about this series.

MAD Lions vs SK Gaming (Net: -2.13 units)

Rogue vs Schalke 04 (Net: -2.695 units)

Misfits vs Excel (Net: -0.455 units)

G2 Esports vs Team Vitality (Net: +1.5 units)

Fnatic vs Astralis (no action)

TSM vs FlyQuest (no action)

Team Liquid vs Immortals (Net: +3.56 units)

100 Thieves vs Evil Geniuses (no action)

CLG vs Dignitas (Net: +1.125 units)

Cloud 9 vs Golden Guardians (Net: -1.79 units)

 

LPL Net Total: -6.5825 units

LCK Net Total: +0.6 units

LEC Net Total: -3.78 units

LCS Net Total: +2.895 units

 

Daily Net Total: -6.8675 units

 


 

LOL Pro League (China)

Week 5 – Day 6

 

I typically start to transition to a more data driven approach after a few weeks of data starts to shape for each of these teams. I can then compare that to what my eyes are telling me in film review and start to use it as a tool. Moving forward you’ll see a lot more data creeping into these breakdowns.

 

 

BiliBili Gaming -625 (-1.5 maps @ -154)

vs

OMG +396 (+1.5 maps @ +119, -1.5 @ +892)

 

Total Maps Played: 2.5 (over +156  / under -200)

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -109 / under -120)

Kill Spread: -9.5 @ +101 / +9.5 @ -132

Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 8.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -101  / under -128)

Starting Lineups:

(Individual player model positional ranking in paranthesis, living number. Avg rating is avg of each players ratings compared to league average of 0)

BLG – Biubiu (2), Meteor (15), Zeka (12), Aiming (7), Jwei (19) (AVG Rating: -0.038)

OMG – Alielie (20), AKi (18), Wuming (19), Eric (5), Cold (16)  (AVG Rating: -0.358)

BiliBili have been rounding into form after a bit of a rocky start. They’re far from a perfect team but what we’ve seen in the past few matches is more along the lines of what I expected from this veteran squad. Jwei had a solid debut series and is getting the nod again for this match against OMG. I touched on it last time but he’s a player that came up in their development system and is extremely young but reports state that he’s a great in-game leader and a dominant voice already. Shades of Keria anyone? Ok I won’t go that far after one series but always nice to see promising young talent.

OMG continue to struggle and it seems that ever since EDG had to figure out what OMG were for the rest of the league on opening day they’ve failed to pick up any new tricks. OMG aren’t a horrible team in terms of their decision making, they just don’t have a lot of options in the draft and their limited individual player quality prevents them from overcoming draft disadvantages on any kind of consistent basis.

BiliBili are the side here but this is a tad too expensive. I made this line -553 / +361 which gives us a decent value on the OMG +1.5 maps but not enough to warrant a position.

Other Markets:

 

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 25.758

Time-Implied: 27.712

Underdog Win: 29.938

“Gelati” Total Projection: 26.319 kills

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 32.142 minutes

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 65.278% (BLG 72.22% / OMG 58.33%)

Volatility Rating: BLG 0.17575 / OMG 0.1675 (higher is more volatile)

Odds-Weighted: 32.3 minutes

Most of the kill total projections line up with the book price. Nothing noteworth in terms of plays. The 65.278% of combined average game times over is a little deceptive given BLG’s difficult schedule so far this season. They are still a team that wants to play quickly but sometimes stall out. I’d expect them to be able to handle OMG though.

The only flagged play in the props market was OMG first dragon @ +128. OMG have actually had over a 73% first dragon rate this season as most teams have chosen to attack their lanes, instead of dragon stack against them, which makes sense given OMG’s preference for global/side lane style compositions.

 

My Picks:

 

Prop: Map 1 OMG first dragon @ +128 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 2 OMG first dragon @ +129 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 3 OMG first dragon @ -101 (0.505 units)

 


 

JD Gaming -130 (-1.5 maps @ +208, +1.5 @ -357)

vs

Team WE +101 (+1.5 maps @ -286, -1.5 @ +258)

 

Total Maps Played: 2.5 (over -103 / under -123)

Kill Total: 27.5 (over -112 / under -116)

Kill Spread: -0.5 @ -110 / +0.5 @ -119

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 13.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over +118  / under -154)

Starting Lineups:

(Individual player model positional ranking in paranthesis, living number. Avg rating is avg of each players ratings compared to league average of 0)

JGD – Zoom (5), Kanavi (1), Yagao (17), LokeN (11), LvMao (21) (AVG Rating: -0.0383)

WE – Breathe (6), Beishang (11), Shanks (2), Jiumeng (8), Missing (13) (AVG Rating: +0.1563)

Without yesterday’s or today’s matches in (haven’t run the numbers yet, time as mentioned earlier) Team WE grade out as the #6 (+0.34) LPL team in my model while JDG are #11(-0.095) just below league average. JDG have obviously looked a lot better in their past three matches (which is factored in) including their 0-2 loss to TOP Esports where they looked fairly competitive in both losses. Team WE are coming off of back-to-back losses, their most recent of which featured Yimeng stepping in for Shanks who had a family emergency to attend to. Shanks will be back for this matchup.

While Shanks hasn’t exactly blown my socks off he has graded out well in my individual player model mostly off of a good overall economy score and the best combined category vision grade amongst mid laners that have played at least five games this season. Most of his numbers are around league average at the position otherwise. During the offseason I said something along the lines of “If Team WE can get a league average mid laner they’ll be a strong playoff team” and that has mostly come to fruition.

Team WE have been playing outstanding fundamental League of Legends even with Jiumeng having an “off” season (he’s still excellent). Their kill agnostic gold per minute is in the elite tier only behind FPX, RNG, and EDG. They’re #2 in the league only to FPX in overall gold per minute as well. Other than herald control they’re above the league average in almost every single category and well above in most. Team WE are a great team folks and perhaps more importantly for us in this handicap, a stronger team than JDG so far this season.

Now with that in mind, JDG are a team that I expect to improve somewhat from what we’ve seen so far. I do sometimes worry that they’re just a little bit too reliant on dominating lane to win games so far this season.

I’m going with Team WE here. Based on what we’ve seen so far this season they should be the favorites in this match and in my opinion by more than JDG are favorites here. Even if we bake in some positive regression for JDG I still can’t get to anywhere near this number. We’re getting a tremendous edge based on the data with Team WE and what I’m seeing with my eyes aligns with the numbers in this scenario.

We have an outstanding slate in the LPL this weekend. These matches should be awesome!

Other Markets:

 

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 26.282

Time-Implied: 26.388

Underdog Win: 25.781

“Gelati” Total Projection: 26.147 kills

Time Total Projections:

Combined AVG Game Time: 31.243 minutes

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 39.583% (JDG 41.67% / WE 37.5%)

Volatility Rating: 0.18993 (0.1855 / 0.104)

Odds-Weighted: 32.37 minutes

 

The model flagged under 12.5 towers, WE first dragon (biggest edge), under 4.5 dragons slain, JDG first herald, and the kill total under as well as 28.5 kills under. These all make a lot of sense given how these two have played, particularly against other good teams but I’ll omit the 12.5 towers. WE are a dragon stacking team, JDG are more herald centric trying to snowball through winning lanes.

 

My Picks:

 

Moneyline: Team WE +101 (1.5 units)

Map Spread: Team WE -1.5 maps @ +258 (0.5 units)

Kill Total (alt): Map 1 UNDER 28.5 kills @ -139 (0.695 units)

Kill Total (alt): Map 2 UNDER 28.5 kills @ -139 (0.695 units)

Kill Total (alt): Map 3 UNDER 27.5 kills @ -123 (0.615 units)

Prop: Map 1 WE first dragon @ -130 (1.3 units)

Prop: Map 2 WE first dragon @ -133 (1.33 units)

Prop: Map 3 WE first dragon @ -139 (1.39 units)

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 4.5 dragons slain @ +103 (0.25 units)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 4.5 dragons slain @ -105 (0.2625 units)

Prop: Map 3 UNDER 4.5 dragons slain @ -109 (0.2725 units)

 


 

FunPlus Phoenix -119 (-1.5 maps @ +246, +1.5 @ -370)

vs

TOP Esports -108 (+1.5 maps @ -333, -1.5 @ +264)

 

Total Maps Played: 2.5 (over -104 / under -122)

Kill Total: 27.5 (over -119 / under -110)

Kill Spread: -0.5 @ -118 / +0.5 @ -111

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 13.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over +120 / under -156)

Starting Lineups:

(Individual player model positional ranking in paranthesis, living number. Avg rating is avg of each players ratings compared to league average of 0)

FPX – Nuguri (4), Bo (5), Doinb (9), Lwx (6), Crisp (7) (AVG Rating: +0.3662)

TOP – 369 (9), Karsa (19), Knight (15), JackeyLove (1), Zhuo (4) (AVG Rating: +0.2434)

This series is just about as close as you can get. I made this market -124 / -103 and that’s pretty damn close to what we’re getting here. I’m looking forward to this match as it’s the clear top two teams in my LPL economy objective model and two of the best in the individual player model as well despite the rough start from TOP.

Frankly, I have a hard time coming up with any kind of angle in this one. Both of these teams are excellent and I won’t be playing a side. On the Gold Card Podcast this week my gut said to just take whoever was cheaper but it turns out this is even closer than it looked. I’m just going to pass on a side and enjoy this one.

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 28.44

Time-Implied: 29.889

Underdog Win: 26.835

“Gelati” Total Projection: 28.776 kills

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 30.393 minutes

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 45.8% (FPX 46.15% / TOP 45.45%)

Volatility Rating: 0.19 (0.176 / 0.167)

 

Slim pickings here too. Best values on the board were TOP first blood and FPX first tower followed by, you guessed it, FPX first herald and TOP first dragon… It makes a lot of sense doesn’t it? The first two mentioned are actually massive edges on the market price and while I typically hate trying to predict EXACTLY game scripts I do think it makes sense given the identity for both of these teams thus far. Unless you think they flip sides and try to counter one another in this contest I’m going to stick with that.

 

My Picks:

 

Prop: Map 1 TOP first blood @ -114 (0.57 units)

Prop: Map 2 TOP first blood @ -114 (0.57 units)

Prop: Map 3 TOP first blood @ -114 (0.57 units)

Prop: Map 1 FPX first tower @ -116 (0.58 units)

Prop: Map 2 FPX first tower @ -116 (0.58 units)

Prop: Map 3 FPX first tower @ -116 (0.58 units)

 


LOL Champions Korea

Week 4 – Day 4

 

 

T1 -625 (-1.5 maps @ -164)

vs

Fredit Brion +453 (+1.5 maps @ +128, -1.5 @ +1100)

 

Total Maps Played: 2.5 (over +167 / under -217)

Kill Total: 21.5 (over -123 / under -105)

Kill Spread: -8.5 @ -112 / +8.5 @ -116

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 6.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -130 / under +100)

Rosters:

(Individual player model positional ranking in paranthesis, living number. Avg rating is avg of each players ratings compared to league average of 0)

T1 – Zeus (4, one match sample), Canna (10), Ellim (10), Cuzz (6), Clozer (10), Faker (4), Gumayusi (4), Teddy (1), Keria (6) (AVG Rating: “young guns” -0.044, “vets” +0.229)

BRO – Hoya (8), UmTi (2), Chieftain (1, small sample), Lava (7), Hena (6), Delight (1) (AVG Rating: +0.143 )

I’m assuming we’re going to get the young guns version of T1 here but there is a chance that they just feel the urgency to get some wins and run the veterans but knowing T1 they’ll probably play the youngsters. This organization has a history of, for lack of better terms, not giving a damn about the implications of a match on whether they play alternate lineups. Who am I to criticize them, it’s worked, they’re the most successful org of all time primarily because of their developmental system.

As is always the case, take kill total overs with Clozer in the lineup. Go back and look at any of the most recent T1 matches and you’ll see why specifically we do this. TL:DR T1 are more disciplined with Faker in the lineup and more aggressive and loose with Clozer in.

Brion are fresh off of yet another win, this time against KT Rolster. Much like APK last Spring, if you screw up, this team is good enough to punish you and take games off of you. In this case, the screw up was playing chicken with Seraphine in game three… and somehow losing with Seraphine and ocean soul at 40+ minutes for KT in game one… don’t ask me how but good on Brion for taking this series. This team is fundamentally sound and intelligent it’s just a matter of the horses. Betting on Brion is essentially betting on the other team screwing up in some capacity. They’re a vessel for mistakes. If you think T1 bungle this a percentage of the time greater than the +1.5 maps or even series moneyline then it’s worth a look. Otherwise I’d back T1 regardless of what the line value says.

Basically I’ll be backing T1 if the “vets” are in. So if we get the Canna, Cuzz, Faker, Teddy, Keria lineup I think T1 are worth a position on both the moneyline and -1.5 maps. Any lineup without Faker in the lineup I’d play a half stake on Brion +1.5 maps and moneyline split and the kill total overs.

 

Other Markets:

 

As mentioned, kill total overs with Clozer in the lineup. Otherwise I’m not seeing too many great values on the board. T1 have mixed up how they’re playing even between similar lineups so it’s tough to get a grasp of their true identity as a team right now.

 

My Picks:

 

If “vets” start:

Moneyline: T1 -625 (3.125 units)

Map Spread: T1 -1.5 maps @ -164 (0.82 units)

 

If Clozer is in the lineup at all a kill total ladder:

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 21.5 @ -123 (0.615 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 22.5 @ +101 (0.25 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 21.5 @ -123 (0.615 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 22.5 @ +101 (0.25 units)

Kill Total: Map 3 OVER 21.5 @ -123 (0.615 units)

Kill Total: Map 3 OVER 22.5 @ +101 (0.25 units)

 

If Full “Young Guns” lineup or some iteration involving Zeus AND Clozer AND Gumayusi:

Map Spread: Brion +1.5 maps @ +128 (0.5 units)

Moneyline: Brion +453 (0.25 units)

Map Spread: Brion -1.5 maps @ +1100 (0.1 units)

 


 

KT Rolster -105 (+1.5 maps @ -333, -1.5 @ +262)

vs

Afreeca -114 (-1.5 maps @ +246, +1.5 @ -357)

 

Total Maps Played: 2.5 (over +100 / under -128)

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -108 / under -122)

Kill Spread: -1.5 @ -120 / +1.5 @ -109 (or +1.5 @ -133 / -1.5 @ +102)

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 10.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -130  / under +100)

Rosters:

(Individual player model positional ranking in paranthesis, living number. Avg rating is avg of each players ratings compared to league average of 0)

KT – Doran (1), Blank (11), Bonnie (13), Ucal (4), Dove (7, two games), Hybrid (9), Zzus (10) (AVG Rating: usual starters -0.009)

AF – Kiin (2), Dread (9), Fly (10), Bang (7), Lehends (4) (AVG Rating: -0.005)

The line has moved a good bit from KT being favored -130 earlier this week.

This is a fascinating matchup between two teams that have been very two-faced this season. At some point KT have to start getting tilted with specifically how they’ve been losing these series but I can’t come up with any logical reason to back either side in this unless you’re a firm believer in continuity. To an extent I am.

It’s definitely more of a “gut” handicap here but I like Afreeca to take this series. They’re strong where KT are and KT have been a team that has struggled against any and all adversity this season. The second things go south they seem to struggle, even from ahead. Doran has been hard carrying this team and he’ll have his work cut out for him against Kiin. There are cases to be made for the KT side of the rest of the map in this series but Afreeca have been a stronger fundamental team despite KT’s stronger economy numbers (propped up by a few lopsided wins).

That said, I won’t be taking a position either way here.

Other Markets:

 

There’s really nothing on this card that I can justify a position on. You could take a look at the team totals but I won’t be playing anything.

 

My Picks:

 

No wagers

 


LOL European Championship (LEC)

Week 3 – Day 2

 

Excel Esports -135 vs SK Gaming +106

 

Kill Total: 22.5 (over -112 / under -116)

Kill Spread: -3.5 @ -112 / +3.5 @ -116

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 10.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -112  / under -116)

SK Gaming won a weird one against MAD Lions where both teams tried to one-up each other in draft multiple times and SK got the better of it. Kalista lanes get out of hand sometimes and that’s basically all that happened. Excel got the best of Misfits because Misfits refused to play their pick/split comp the way they should have after building up a massive lead and just trying to 5v5 the team fight comp.

I basically would have taken whoever was plus money in this game. Both of these teams have some questions still but both have also had good games. What concerns me is that, in an interview yesterday, one of the Excel players said that they’ve been struggling badly in the early game and that’s where SK have been having success. I don’t typically look too much into these sorts of things as it can be anything from a warped perception to smoke to throw people off the scent but it was interesting to hear a non-vanilla answer.

If Excel were the dogs I’d be taking them. Just take the plus money here.

My Picks:

Kill Spread (alt): SK Gaming -0.5 @ +118 (1 unit)

 


FC Schalke 04  -156 vs Misfits +122

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -111 / under -118)

Kill Spread: -3.5 @ -123 / +3.5 @ -105

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 10.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -130 / under +100)

After a rough start Schalke seem to be hitting their stride a little but I wanted to give a word of caution here. Rogue were more or less winning the macro game in that match yesterday and made one small mistake that Schalke capitalized on to dive mid and flip that into a baron and eventually the game. Perhaps Schalke’s crazy dive comp would have won anyway eventually but there was a reasonable chance that they don’t find that pick, Rogue win the dragon soul in the next fight and this is a completely different looking game. Still, Schalke are apparently the giant slayers taking down G2 and Rogue in back-to-back matches now and sit at 4-2 on the season after a bizarre week one.

Misfits dropped to Excel after simply not playing out their team composition the way that you’re supposed to.  Admittedly it was a harder to execute poke/split/pick style comp with Leblanc and Jayce. The built up a massive lead and just decided to group instead of isolating and picking people off. This showed lack of fundamental understanding of how to operate a type of composition that it seems they’re interested in playing. There’s a chance they continue to try to run these but also a chance the coaching staff simply scraps it and avoids these until they want to try again.

They’re a little unorthodox but I do think Schalke are the play here. Misfits got everyone excited with some highlight reel plays in week one but have more or less failed to deliver any meaningful results since then. Their economy metrics look great for a team with their record but this is primarily because of the early game spiking compositions they’ve been focusing on. They’ve now punted with leads twice and stalled out twice. If you are going to play this way and lack the ability to accelerate you’re going to struggle against teams that learn how to put up a defense. In this specific case I also think that Schalke are just a more talented roster as well.

This is admittedly a bit of a “gut” handicap but I think Schalke take care of business in this one. I’m not buying Misfits at all. It’s all sizzle and no steak. I’m tempted to take the over here since both of these teams like to scrap but I think the book has been written on how to beat Misfits and a lot of teams will likely try to slow the game down against them. I like the OVER time total as well.

My Picks:

Kill Spread (alt): Schalke -4.5 kills @-102 (1.02 units)

Time Total: OVER 32:00 @ -130 (1.3 units)

 


Team Vitality +140 vs MAD Lions -179

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -105 / under -123)

Kill Spread: +5.5 @ -123 / -5.5 @ -105

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 14.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -114 / under -114)

Is it weird to anyone else that this line dropped 20 cents just because MAD lost to SK yesterday? Feels like a bit of an overreaction.

I feel bad for Vitality. They’ve actually been very competitive in a bunch of their games and then something catastrophic seems to go wrong. They’re almost definitely better than their record and teams like Astralis, maybe even Excel and Misfits as well. That said, you’re not getting as good a price to back them as you would have even yesterday. I don’t normally like to pass on cheap favorites but if MAD are going to mess around in draft on a patch where Seraphine is a thing they might play chicken with I’m not sure I want to mess with that until we’re live.

I do like the kill total under here. 25.5 is relatively high for a non-G2 game and the win conditions for both of these teams feel like they lead to lower kill affairs significantly more often than not. Given that I think this total is really high  and we’re getting an amplified spread I think an underdog kill spread isn’t a bad option here either but I’m going to just stick to the total.

My Picks:

Kill Total: UNDER 25.5 @ -123 (1.23 units)

 


Rogue -833 vs Astralis +509

 

Kill Total: 22.5 (over -112 / under -116)

Kill Spread: -9.5 @ -110 / +9.5 @ -119

Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 6.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -110 / under -119)

Rogue had a weird loss yesterday but have otherwise been completely dominant start-to-finish in every single game this season leading by an average of 3000 gold by the 20 minute mark. That’s a DAMWON 2020 number and double that of G2’s average. What’s even more impressive is that they’ve done this without relying on kills nearly as much as G2 and Fnatic have this season. Rogue have BY FAR the highest kill-agnostic gold per minute of any team in the West and short of a few teams in the LCK/LPL one of the best numbers for this worldwide. What they’re doing is consistent, repeatable, and not reliant on variance plays for spikes. They’re engineering significant advantages strictly through superior macro moves and economy just like they did during Summer. As good as G2 have looked, I’ll go ahead and say it; Rogue are the best team in the West right now and a weird loss yesterday doesn’t change that.

Astralis have been a more than a bit of a mess but have shown some good things now and again. They seem to get distracted with what’s in front of them and lose sight of the big picture, almost like most LPL teams do but they don’t have the chops to improvise on the fly like that.

I rarely turn down massive kill spreads like this, particularly when the favorite is typically lower scoring but I’m fairly certain Astralis are just terrible, at least for the time being. They look like they’re playing solo queue and against good teams, unless they decide to play solo queue or try out some weird stuff I’m having a hard time seeing many good teams lose to Astralis. They’ll snipe the middle of the table once in awhile but Rogue aren’t an experimental team. For lack of better terms, they’re a bunch of tryhards that don’t screw around. I’ll pass.

My Picks:

No wagers


G2 Esports -250 vs Fnatic +190

 

Kill Total: 30.5 (over -120 / under -109)

Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -120 / +6.5 @ -109

Team Kill Totals: 18.5 / 11.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over +104 / under -135)

The modern El Clasico.

Fnatic have looked better since their odd start in week one. Their loosey-goosey, run-and-gun style has been entertaining to watch but I feel might be difficult against a team like G2 who do that better than maybe any team in history.

This is tough, I do think G2 are the side here but this price is just too high given how volatile this matchup has been over the past few years even through different iterations of the rosters. 30.5 is the highest kill total I’ve seen this season and while all the numbers point to this one being a complete bloodbath I have a hard time not taking a shot at the long tail under. So many situations result in a lopsided stomp for one side or the other in this match and that’s all it takes. A bet on OVER 30.5 is a bet on a match with a ton of blood that also stays extremely close. These two teams might deliver on that more often than any other two team combination in the West but it’s not more often than half the time. I’ll take the under.

My Picks:

Kill Total: UNDER 30.5 @ -109 (1.09 units)

 


LOL Championship Series (LCS)

Week 1 – Day 2

Opening Weekend

 

Again, I’ll be fairly light on North American LCS until we see what these teams really are.

 

Evil Geniuses -138 vs FlyQuest +114

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -118 / under -112)

Kill Spread: -3.5 @ -114 / +3.5 @ -116

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 10.5

Time Total: OTB

EG had a pretty sizeable lead against 100 Thieves yesterday with a great scaling composition and still somehow managed to lose in what ended up being a really weird game. FlyQuest did the opposite. They were being handled by TSM but brought it back because Seraphine is … real broken.

I’ve discussed at length “messing” with that champion. She’s singe-handedly caused half a dozen upsets in the past few days alone and I like to think that most teams are just going to start banning her.

Evil Geniuses looked good before the throw as well as during the entire Lock-In tournament. We’re also getting them at a discount here off of the overreaction. This was -176 / +144 earlier this week. Give me Evil Geniuses cheap.

My Picks:

Moneyline: Evil Geniuses -138 (1.38 units)

 


Dignitas +422 vs Team Liquid -581

 

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -110 / under -120)

Kill Spread: +8.5 @ -108 / -8.5 @ -122

Team Kill Totals: 6.5 / 15.5

Time Total: OTB

Dignitas struggled mightily against a CLG lineup that’s not at 100% yet. They got the win but it was an ugly, ugly game. Liquid managed to drop one to an amazing game by Immortals, a lineup that I feel is being severely underrated by a lot of people.

To me, Dignitas are way worse than Immortals. Liquid looked completely dominant at the Lock-In and I’d imagine they keep that going after a hiccup yesterday. This is a big kill spread but I like Liquid to roll and cover here.

My Picks:

Kill Spread: Liquid -8.5 @ -122 (0.66 units)

 


Golden Guardians +118 vs Immortals -144

 

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -109 / under -121)

Kill Spread: +3.5 @ -111 / -3.5 @ -119

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 12.5

Time Total: OTB

Golden Guardians kept it close against Cloud 9 for awhile before falling apart while Immortals took down Liquid.

It feels really weird to want to back a team that I’m expecting to be a bottom half squad as favorites this early on in the split but Immortals looked really REALLY sharp yesterday. It looks like that time spent prepping while the Academy squad was playing the Lock-In served them well. Individually Immortals had a few standout performances from Insanity and Revenge. Again, early in the season it’s more art than science with this sort of thing but Immortals look pretty sharp at the moment and I’m going to back them here even at the more expensive price than we would have had earlier this week.

My Picks:

Moneyline: Immortals -144 (0.72 units)

Kill Spread (alt): Immortals -6.5 kills @ +163 (0.5 units)

 


Team Solo Mid +164  vs Cloud 9 -203

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -117 / under -113)

Kill Spread: -+5.5 @ -109 / -5.5 @ -121

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 14.5

Time Total: OTB

Overreaction to TSM’s loss is exactly the kind of thing I like to attack but there hasn’t been too much of an overreaction in this situation (+154/-189 opener). I do think TSM are worth a light play here. Again, I think this team is going to be a slow grower but they’ve got the talent to match Cloud 9 in every lane and I’m not putting too much weight on what we’ve seen so far. I also wouldn’t put it past Cloud 9 to botch a draft or try something “too cute” here, something they’ve already shown a willingness to do this season. Again, a bit of a hunch but I’ll take a light shot on TSM.

My Picks:

Moneyline: TSM +164 (0.5 units)

 


Counter Logic Gaming +293 vs 100 Thieves -382

 

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -115 / under -115)

Kill Spread: +8.5 @ -121 / -8.5 @ -109

Team Kill Totals: 7.5 / 15.5

Time Total: OTB

CLG and Dignitas played one of the most hilarious clown fiestas of a game that I’ve seen through a month of League of Legends so far in 2021. It was one of those “neither team really won this” sort of situations and CLG managed to throw it half a dozen times. 100 Thieves have looked sharp as a tack at the Lock-In and showed that they’re capable of playing a scaling game as well with the Seraphine carry yesterday. Don’t get cute with this one, 100 Thieves smash.

My Picks:

Moneyline: 100 Thieves -382 (1.91 units)

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

Leave a Reply