Friday, February 26th Recap

 

I absolutely love Super Saturday’s when all the leagues are rolling but they do really challenge the amount of hours in a day I’ve got. Obviously with all of the games this weekend and some scheduling issues I’ve mentioned earlier this week the recaps for today are going to be a bit delayed. I’ll be updating this post with them as I get to them over the weekend.

 

JD Gaming vs TT Gaming (Net: +2.53 units)

Invictus vs EDward Gaming (Net: +1.475 units)

Gen.G vs Fredit Brion (Net: -1.59 units)

Afreeca Freecs vs KT Rolster (Net: +1.865 units)

 

MAD Lions vs SK Gaming (Net: -2.56 units)

Misfits vs Excel (Net: -1.53 units)

Team Vitality vs G2 Esports (Net: +0.5 units)

Schalke 04 vs Rogue (Net: no action)

Fnatic vs Astralis (Net: +0.75 units)

 

Cloud 9 vs Golden Guardians (Net: -2.18 units)

Team Liquid vs TSM (Net: +0.78 units)

Evil Geniuses vs FlyQuest (Net: no action)

CLG vs 100 Thieves (Net: +0.5 units)

Immortals vs Dignitas (Net: -1.0 units)

 

 

LPL Net Total: +4.005 units

LCK Net Total: +0.275 units

LEC Net Total: -2.84 units

LCS Net Total: -1.9 units

 

Daily Net Total: -0.46 units

 

 

 


LOL Pro League (China)

Week 6 – Day 6

LGD Gaming -137 (-1.5 maps @ +191, +1.5 @ -476)

vs

Rogue Warriors +114 (+1.5 maps @ -250, -1.5 @ +330)

 

Map ML Price: LGD -141 / RW +110

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over -101 / under -125)

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -118 / under -111)

Kill Spread: -3.5 @ -116 / +3.5 @ -112

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 11.5

Time Total: 34:00 (over +192 / under -263)

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none

By the model it’s a negative EV proposition to wager on a side in this match. So if you’re going to take a side it’s based purely on film and intuition.

Rogue Warriors haven’t really shown me anything besides Forge and Haro playing well together in some games and we’ve only see one series from Betty and Kaixuan. I have to think that , as I mentioned in their previous match, Betty provides an immediate upgrade to a bottom lane that’s been severely lacking this season and has maybe been the worst overall that I’ve seen in many years. Ziv has still been struggling mightily in his first try in the LPL.

LGD haven’t really impressed me either but it’s also been a few weeks since their last match and a lot can change in that time.

I was just going to take Rogue Warriors on principle here because you have the two worst teams in the LPL, just take the plus money, but it’s not even that great a number and I don’t really see a discernable edge that I can justify so I’m just going to pass on sides.

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 25.304

Time-Implied: 24.721

Underdog Win: 27.0

“Gelati” Total Projection: 24.975 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total:  41.7% (LGD 30.77% / RW 52.63%)

Volatility Rating: LGD 0.34542 / RW 0.32776 (League Avg: 0.296)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

LGD team total UNDER 13.5 kills @ -102 (very strong)

RW team total UNDER 11.5 kills @ -127 (very strong)

UNDER 24.5 @ -111 (moderate)

(alt) UNDER 25.5 @ -132 (moderate-light)

(alt) UNDER 23.5 @ +113 (light)

 

This could be a boring snoozefest or this could be a slobberknocker between two awful teams. If I had to guess it’d be the latter but I wouldn’t bet on it. The team totals are coming in strong mostly because these teams have been terrible and low scoring which is no surprise. If you have a strong opinion either way bet the other side under I suppose. I’m passing.

 

 

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 30.117 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted:  32.53 / 32.53

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 25.91% (LGD 30.77% / RW 21.05%)

Volatility Rating: LGD 0.13517 / RW 0.15141 (League Avg: 0.15306)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

UNDER 34:00 @ -263 (very light)

 

Again, it’s difficult to determine exactly what kind of series we’re going to have here I’m just staying away.

 

 

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

Rogue Warriors first herald @ -108 (very strong)

LGD first dragon @ -147 (strong)

UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -103 (strong)

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -161 (moderate)

UNDER 1.5 barons @ -208 (light)

 

Generally Rogue Warriors have been a herald team and LGD have been a dragon team so those feel pretty obvious. I’m just hoping we don’t get blown out by a complete shift in mentality with Betty entering the lineup. It sort of looked that way in the first series back for Rogue Warriors but that might have been a matchup thing coming out of the break.

 

My Picks:

 

Prop: Map 1 RW first herald @ -108 (1.08 units)

Prop: Map 2 RW first herald @ -108 (1.08 units)

Prop: Map 3 RW first herald @ -108 (1.08 units)

Prop: Map 1 LGD first dragon @ -147 (1.47 units)

Prop: Map 2 LGD first dragon @ -152 (1.52 units)

Prop: Map 3 LGD first dragon @ -139 (1.39 units)

 


 

eStar Pro +622 (+1.5 maps @ +167, -1.5 @ +910)

vs

TOP Esports -1000 (-1.5 maps @ -217, +1.5 @ -2500)

 

Map ML Price: EST +373 / TOP -556

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +198 / under -263)

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -118 / under -111)

Kill Spread: +9.5 @ -111 / -9.5 @ -118

Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 17.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over +180 / under -244)

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

TOP moneyline @ -1000 (very small)

TOP -1.5 maps @ -217 (miniscule)

 

eStar have been absolutely terrible and almost all of their wins have come at the hands of ShiauC hero plays. The one avenue to a win here would be him having another out of this world series against a carry in JackeyLove that’s extremely arrogant and sometimes makes mistakes in critical moments. Other than that I’m just not seeing it here.

I’ll take this time to mention that the model thinks TOP is the best team in the LPL even at a 4-3 (9-6 in games). That should tell you that they’re likely due for some positive regression in the second half. It makes sense too doesn’t it? They’ve looked a little off, had a few weird losses, most of which only to really good teams. They’ve only really been smashed once. TOP have elite tier economy metrics in both traditional, kill agnostic, and sectional measures. They’ve dilly-dallied a little in closing games at times this season but most of their mistakes are easy fixes and I’d expect them to ramp up in a big way here. All but one of their wins grades as a “quality win.”

Don’t over think this. TOP roll.

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 29.528

Time-Implied: 28.736

Underdog Win: 28.679

“Gelati” Total Projection: 28.679 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total:  55% (TOP 60% / EST 50%)

Volatility Rating: TOP 0.3434 / EST 0.21976  (League Avg: 0.2960)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

eStar team total OVER 8.5 kills @ -103 (VERY VERY strong)

TOP team total UNDER 17.5 kills @ -102 (light)

OVER 26.5 @ -118 (miniscule)

 

Only 4 of eStar’s 15 losses have them scoring fewer than 9 kills, all four of them were 6 kill losses to teams of various levels. One thing you can say about this team is that they don’t go down without a fight. That said, TOP are only dying 6.33 times per win. I’m just going to pass here. This could very well be a done-and-dusted short series stomping but if TOP decide to play with their food that’s how this goes over.

TOP have been winning by an average margin of 13.12 kills. Favorites have covered kill spreads of 9.5 or greater in 12 out of 23 games in the LPL this season.  My first thought in this series was eStar kill spreads and they are somewhat close losers (average margin of defeat of 8.07) but TOP are just rolling people when they win. Pass.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 30.607 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted:  30.65 / 30.65

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 42.73% (TOP 40% / EST 45.45%)

Volatility Rating: TOP 0.15208 / EST 0.18048 (League Avg: 0.15306)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OVER 32:00 @ +180 (moderate)

 

TOP’s average game time and average game time in wins are both sub 31:00. This number implies a 70.93% chance we stay under and a 35.71% chance of going over. The average is fairly low because of a few blazing fast wins. eStar tend to lose very quickly so chances are this does, in fact, go under. I’m going to pass this but the fact that it’s +180 means the play is probably to just take the over and hope one of them hits so you can collect your small profit.

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

eStar first blood @ +118 (VERY strong)

TOP first blood @ -154 (VERY strong)

UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -161 (strong)

eStar first herald @ +153 (very light)

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -303 (miniscule)

 

We sometimes get these where it lists both as strong plays relative to price/rate but this basically means they’re both good first blood teams. If anything I’d lean toward taking eStar at plus money and again, collecting profit if one of them hits. I’m just going to pass on the firsts.

However, I do like the under 4.5 dragons. I don’t really see many situations where TOP don’t just control these games from start to finish but rather than take the time total I like the dragon option a little better in this spot.

 

 

My Picks:

 

Map Spread: TOP -1.5 maps @ -217 (2.17 units)

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -161 (1.61 units)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -189 (1.89 units)

Prop: Map 3 UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -154 (1.54 units)

 

 


 

Royal Never Give Up +122 (+1.5 maps @ -263, -1.5 @ +320)

vs

FunPlus Phoenix -147 (-1.5 maps @ +197, +1.5 @ -455)

 

Map ML Price: RNG +110 / FPX -141

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over -109 / under -120)

Kill Total: 27.5 (over -118 / under -111)

Kill Spread: +3.5 @ -114 / -3.5 @ -114

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 14.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over +151 / under -200)

 

 

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

FunPlus moneyline @ -147 (moderate-light)

FunPlus -1.5 maps @ +197 (light)

FunPlus map moneyline @ -141 (miniscule)

 

Beichuan will be stepping up from the LDL’s FPX Blaze to the starting roster to replace Tian who was only filling in as an emergency sub, he’s still taking time off for the same reasons but obviously the Bo situation threw a wrench in things. I haven’t watched a lot of the LDL but I have caught a few games here and there between the top teams in the league, one of which is Blaze and Beichuan is a natural. The kid is really good. He has the second highest CS per minute amongst junglers, a very high kill participation (7th amongst junglers that have played 20 or more games), and the highest gold per minute amonst junglers that have played 20 or more games. There’s a reasonable case to be made that he’s the best jungler in the LDL along with 13est16, Pzx, and maybe Youdang.

I know a lot of people are going to want to back RNG citing this short notice substitution as the reason or were close on this match and this was enough of a push in that direction to convince them but I’d caution against that. Yes, it’s difficult to instantly incorporate into a league at the highest level and limited practice time makes that even more challenging but this kid can play and we’ve already seen FPX seamlessly transition once this season and it hasn’t really impacted their performance at all. They had a brief hiccup in the last series against WE, a good team. It’s possible we see that again but the point I’m getting at is that this team is just insanely good and every jungler has had success with them. Beichuan is as polished as any prospect that could step in here and it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see him fit right in.

In my economy/objective model, FunPlus are one of the best teams in the world right now. They have the highest kill agnostic gold per minute in the LPL by a mile and the highest kill agnostic gold differential per minute. They’re also way ahead of the next tier in raw gold per minute and they’ve done all of this with jungle changes, Tian health issues, and Nuguri getting acclimated to the LPL. I actually think FPX could get better and more polished as the season goes on which is terrifying.

RNG are no slouches either but they haven’t been nearly as dominant overall. Obviously they’re also piecing it together a bit as they go with Xiaohu essentially learning a new position on the fly. What they’re doing is impressive as well.

I’m passing on a side in this match. I was going to back FunPlus before this news and maybe I’ll regret that if Beichuan can perform as well as he has been in the LDL but he has the unfortunate luck of having to face, in my opinion, the best jungler in the LPL and possibly the world right now in Wei in his first match. That’s a real test. The edge here was small to begin with, that’ll keep me off this. Should be an outstanding match though!

 

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 28.61

Time-Implied: 28.68

Underdog Win: 28.719

“Gelati” Total Projection: 28.453 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total:  38.68% (FPX 47.37% / RNG 30%)

Volatility Rating: FPX 0.2678 / RNG 0.31839 (League Avg: 0.296)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

RNG team total OVER 12.5 kills @ -105 (VERY strong)

FPX team total OVER 14.5 kills @ -120 (moderate-strong)

UNDER 27.5 kills @ -111 (moderate-strong)

(alt) UNDER 28.5 kills @ -132 (moderate)

(alt) UNDER 26.5 kills @  +110 (miniscule)

 

Obviously the team totals have come in over on both of these successful teams but that’s because they’ve been winning a lot. Both have reasonably high kills in losses as well but not quite to these totals. If you have a stronger inclining on who wins this series that’s not a bad place to be but at that point just take the series moneyline. I’ll be passing on the team totals. Both of these teams know how to close a game out and have excellent macro but FunPlus have been much faster and more decisive closers. I like the UNDER in the full game total.

 

 

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 31.015 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 31.39 / 31.24

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total:  46.05% (FPX 42.11% / RNG 50%)

Volatility Rating: FPX 0.15594 / RNG 0.16958 (League Avg: 0.15306)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OVER 33:00 @ +151 (moderate)

 

RNG are slower closers and fast losers, FPX are fast closers and slow losers. Another market that depends largely on your handicap of the match. I still lean toward the FPX side of things even with the new jungler so I’d lean toward the under despite the model suggesting that +151 is a good deal here. I’ll just pass.

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -222 (VERY strong)

RNG first blood @ -109 (strong)

FPX first blood @ -120 (strong)

FPX first tower @ -120 (moderate-strong)

RNG first tower @ -109 (moderate-strong)

OVER 1.5 barons @ +151 (moderate-strong)

 

Again, with both teams being good at the same things it more or less “cancels” each other out. The under 12.5 towers suggestion makes sense given that these two teams have been winning A LOT. FPX have only had a single game with more than 12 total towers destroyed this season and it was in their last match against Team WE. RNG have only had 3 games with more than 12 total towers destroyed. It doesn’t seem to matter whether it’s against good or bad teams either. These teams don’t hemorrhage cross map plays or frequently trade deep into the game. RNG aren’t quite as clean a closer as FPX but again two smart macro teams this lines up. I’m going to make this bet. Usually in these types of series it’s a few lopsided games anyway especially when you get two fundamentally sound squads.

 

My Picks:

 

Kill Total: Map 1 UNDER 27.5 @ -111 (1.11 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 UNDER 27.5 @ -109 (1.09 units)

Kill Total: Map 3 UNDER 27.5 @ -102 (1.02 units)

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -222 (1.11 units)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -213 (1.065 units)

Prop: Map 3 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -204 (1.02 units)

 


 

LOL Champions Korea (LCK)

Week 6 – Day 3

 

DRX +137 (+1.5 maps @ -227, -1.5 @ +375)

vs

Hanwha Life Esports -169 (-1.5 maps @ +175, +1.5 @ -556)

 

Map ML Price: DRX +119 / HLE -152

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over -102 / under -125)

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -116 / under -112)

Kill Spread: +5.5 @ -119 / -5.5 @ -110

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 13.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -102 / under -128)

 

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

Hanwha moneyline @ -169 (strong)

Hanwha -1.5 maps @ +175 (moderate)

Hanwha map moneyline @ -152 (moderate)

 

This makes a lot of sense if you’ve been following my articles for any amount of time this season. We talked a lot about this one on The Gold Card Podcast this week because of how intriguing this matchup is. See, I’m not entirely convinced that Hanwha is as good as public perception of them but I know that DRX aren’t as good as their record either. So this is a team that I think is overrated but good in a unique way against a team that’s completely and utterly fraudulent. The model alone shows a 9.2% edge on Hanwha for the full series moneyline and made this number -293 / +228 (fair price with vig). It’s not the biggest edge even on this card but there’s the rub… this is one of the smaller edges against DRX that I’ve seen all season.

I never like to rule out that a team could have a fraudulent record and a strong start but also improve. Look at MAD Lions in Spring 2020 LEC. That was a perfect case of that. Schalke later in Summer to a leser extent as well. My beef with DRX is that they aren’t going to be able to proactively defeat the good teams they’re just basically waiting for their enemies to make unforced errors. They draft solid scaling and play conservatively. That approach wins a lot this time of year if you’re good at it but the more polished the tempo teams get the worse it becomes.

Hanwha have a very VERY kill-dependent economy. They have one of the lowest kill-agnostic economy ratings of any team in the two main eastern leagues despite having an above average overall economy. It makes sense given how bloody they are. A kill-dependent economy isn’t a bad thing if you’re consistently delivering in that department and they are. It just makes it harder to tell just how good they really are. Hanwha have a -182 kill agnostic gold differential per minute vs DRX’s +131.7. DRX are significantly better at grinding games out and minimizing their own mistakes. They don’t need much to get by and they’re surprisingly efficient. That said, only 15% of DRX’s wins grade as “quality” and have been, in large part, due to opponent unforced error.

My concern is that Hanwha get a little too wild and lose sight of the big picture. DRX are the kind of well-coached team that I can actually see them struggling with. They aren’t going to take meaningless fights and 50-50’s that Hanwha make their hay on and in a neutral game state I’d take DRX in their current form and with the way they’re drafting.  I’m going to be backing Hanwha here because it’s tough to deny the value but I do think this matchup has the potential to expose Hanwha a bit. Of course, they could just completely run this over and expose DRX as well.

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 25.415

Time-Implied: 26.273

Underdog Win: 23.103

“Gelati” Total Projection: 26.076 kills 

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 45.48% (HLE 62.96% / DRX 28%)

Volatility Rating: HLE 0.30259 / DRX 0.35752 (League Avg: 0.3263)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

Hanwha OVER 13.5 kills @ -123 (moderate-light)

DRX OVER 10.5 kills @ -112 (light)

(alt) UNDER 25.5 kills @ -128 (light)

UNDER 24.5 kills @ -114 (very light)

(alt) UNDER 23.5 kills @ +106 (miniscule)

 

This is a matchup where I think the odds-weighted projection (my ratings weighted is 25.751) is probably a more accurate number given the two extremes we’re looking at. The model puts more weight on frequency than average or median projection (although it factors in both). Essentially this boils down to whether you think Hanwha win in “Hanwha style.” I think there’s a reasonable chance that DRX slow this game down to a standstill and don’t feed into Hanwha’s brawling. With that in mind, I still think the over is a decent play here. Hanwha are averaging 19.51 kills per win just by themselves and 29.13 combined kills per game. Even DRX are averaging a combined kill per game total of 23.274 so we’ll take the over for a half stake.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 32.311

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 32.09 / 31.88

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 61.63% (HLE 59.26% / DRX 64%)

Volatility Rating: HLE 0.09461 / DRX 0.1443 (League Avg: 0.15017)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OVER 33:00 @ -102 (strong)

 

Again, slightly dependent on your full series handicap. If you think Hanwha win this is probably just a pass but if you think DRX have a shot or that this is very competitive then the over is a great play. I lean more toward the latter. In fact, even with a Hanwha win factored in I think we’ve got a reasonable chance to get a couple of overs here. around 59% of Hanwha’s games have gone over this 33:00 total and they’re the “fast” team here.

 

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OVER 1.5 barons @ +126 (moderate-light)

OVER 12.5 towers @ -149 (light)

 

The model didn’t suggest it but due to the frequency at which it goes over between these two but I think OVER 4.5 dragons is the play I actually like the most in the props. None of the firsts are particularly great for either of these squads given the prices on the Hanwha side. I’m already on the over time total though which I like a bit more so I’ll just pass so I’m not double dipping on essentially the same thing.

 

My Picks:

 

Moneyline: Hanwha -169 (1.69 units)

Map Spread: Hanwha -1.5 maps @ +175 (0.5 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 24.5 kills @ -114 (1.14 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 24.5 kills @ -112 (1.12 units)

Kill Total: Map 3 OVER 24.5 kills @ -105 (1.05 units)

Time Total: Map 1 OVER 33:00 @ -102 (1.02 units)

Time Total: Map 2 OVER 33:00 @ -108 (1.08 units)

Time Total: Map 3 OVER 33:00 @ -108 (1.08 units)

 


T1 +214 (+1.5 maps @ -154, -1.5 @ +540)

vs

DAMWON Kia Gaming -263 (-1.5 maps @ +121, +1.5 @ -909)

 

Map ML Price: T1 +170 / DWG -222

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +110 / under -141)

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -105 / under -123)

Kill Spread: +5.5 @ -105 / -5.5 @ -123

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 14.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -119 / under -110)

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

T1 moneyline @ +214 (moderate)

T1 +1.5 maps @ -154 (moderate)

T1 map moneyline @ +170 (moderate)

OVER 2.5 maps @ +110 (very small)

 

The first time these two played was way back in week one where DAMWON ended up winning what was looking like a T1 sided game three.

So there’s a few angles to this one, first I’ll discuss the betting part.

The line has moved down a bit from open where DAMWON were -300 favorites. The economy/objective model makes this series -178 / +148 which suggests a significant advantage on T1 even after missing the boat on some +240’s that were out there. I hate missing out on the good line value but if it’s still there it’s still there. The question is what adjustments do I make.

In many ways these two teams have reversed roles which makes sense with Kkoma and PoohManDu now coaching DAMWON. Speaking of that… rivalry factor for both teams here not that I think there’s any particularly bad blood but still… I digress… DAMWON are now the more reserved team and T1 are the uptempo, smash you early squad.

(all are composite numbers which weights season long and trending performance)

(DWG left / T1 right)

  • Gold Differential @ 10 mins: -257 / +559.7
  • Gold Differential @ 15 mins: +554 / +1550.6
  • Gold Differential @ 20 mins: +456 / +2358
  • Gold per Minute (first 20 minutes): 1800 / 1645
  • Gold Differential per min (first 20 minutes): +69.5 / +92.2
  • Gold Differential per minute (post 20 minutes): +165.5 / +53.9
  • Gold per Minute: 1899.7 / 1836
  • Overall Gold Differential per minute: +165 / +53
  • Kill Agnostic Gold per minute: 1838 / 1638
  • Kill Agnostic Gold Differential per Minute: +409.5 / -17.3
  • Dragon Control %: 64.5 / 54.9
  • Herald Control %: 66.7 / 48.9
  • Baron Control%: 75 / 41.9

The long and short of this is that DAMWON have still been an unbelievably efficient team they just aren’t dominating games in as flashy a way as they did all Summer.

I’m going to wait for lineups to come out for this one because I think this is pretty close. You’ve got to keep in mind that if we see a few of the rookies this is going to be their first experience playing against a team of this caliber and that can both a motivator AND a shock to your system. The younger lineup has also been more prone to critical mistakes. If we get a more veteran lineup with Cuzz, Faker, and Teddy I think I’d lean toward T1 but I’m likely going against my model and backing DAMWON here.

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 25.854

Time-Implied: 25.951

Underdog Win: 27.094

“Gelati” Total Projection: 25.869 kills 

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 43.56% (DWG 45.45% / T1 41.67%)

Volatility Rating: DWG 0.36212 / T1 0.35659 (League Avg: 0.3263)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

T1 team total OVER 9.5 kills @ -108 (strong)

DAMWON team total OVEr 14.5 kills @ -108 (moderate)

(alt) UNDER 25.5 kills @ -130 (moderate)

UNDER 24.5 kills @ -123 (light)

UNDER 23.5 kills @ -102 (light)

 

Yet again, OVERS with the Clozer lineup, UNDERS with the Faker lineup. This total is just splitting the difference between two very different teams overall. DAMWON are averaging 28.949 combined kills per game to T1’s 22.385. DAMWON are averaging 17.5 per win and T1 7.688 in losses. T1 16.91 in wins DAMWON 10.188 in losses. The KPW/KPL numbers suggest a play on the over but I’m going to wait until we have the lineups. T1 have been significantly bloodier with Clozer in. I know we’ve missed on it the past few but overall for the season it’s still a substantial difference.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 33.788 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 34.26 / 34.48

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 63.07% (DWG 63.64% / T1 62.5%)

Volatility Rating: DWG 0.19945 / T1 0.1348 (League Avg: 0.15017)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OVER 33:00 @ -119 (moderate)

 

I’m going to pass  but I’d lean to the over here. In years past this would have been a windmill slam on the under with both teams likely to snowball in whichever games they got a lead. You’d end up with series like 28 minutes, 30 minutes, 29 minutes for the three games. Just three lopsided stomps, perfect snowballs. DAMWON are still playing ridiculously high level League of Legends, they’re just not smashing teams in speedruns. They’re opting for a more conservative approach to things to reduce variance. I applaud them for it because they’re succeeding with it and still maintaining a lot of the “trade up” factors that made them incredible last year. T1 have been a faster team, especially with the young guns in but not blazing fast. This number looks just about right to me. We’ll probably be one over, one under, one close. I’ll just pass.

 

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

T1 first tower @ -105 (VERY strong)

OVER 1.5 barons @ +132 (strong)

T1 first blood @ -110 (strong)

DAMWON first herald @ -149 (moderate)

T1 first dragon @ -115 (moderate-light)

OVER 11.5 towers @ -149 (light)

DAMWON first tower @ -125 (light)

OVER 4.5 dragons @ -130 (miniscule)

 

I’m not taking any first tower teams without big plus odds against DAMWON. T1 have a very strong 70.8% first tower rate this season and we’re getting -105 but DAMWON pick up first herald at a similar clip and aren’t too shabby at first tower themselves. The T1 first blood seems like a solid play although T1’s props are a really weird collection. Very high in first blood and first tower but sub 50% in herald. T1 are typically taking down first tower manually which is kind of impressive but a little weird.

The prop handicaps here depend largely on who you think wins and how this plays out. I’m going against my model a bit here and I’m going to back DAMWON first herald. It’s been a primary focus of theirs and they’ve been one of the best teams in the world at it over the past two calendar years, I’m not letting a “rough” (they’re still 68%…) start in the category for the team that wrote the book on how to abuse it stop me from backing them at a relatively cheap number. Usually we’re paying -225 or more for these. Even with the new coaching staff it’s still been a focus of theirs.

 

My Picks:

 

I will be updating this and in the Discord for this match in the morning if there are any changes based on lineup for this match. For the time being, below is what I’ll know, the rest will depend.

 

Regardless of T1 lineup:

Prop: Map 1 DAMWON first herald @ -149 (0.745 units)

Prop: Map 2 DAMWON first herald @ -149 (0.745 units)

Prop: Map 3 DAMWON first herald @ -149 (0.745 units)

 

IF Clozer plays

Moneyline: DAMWON -238 (2.38 units)

Map Spread: DAMWON -1.5 maps @ +124 (0.5 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 24.5 @ -103 (1.03 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 24.5 @ -110 (1.10 units)

Kill Total: Map 3 OVER 24.5 @ -108 (1.08 units)

 (I changed these numbers since post yesterday, lines moved, current written ones are where I got in approx 4:10am Eastern)

 

 


LOL European Championship (LEC)

Week 6 – Day 2

 

 

 

Excel Esports +128 vs SK Gaming -182

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -119 / under -110)

Kill Spread: +4.5 @ -125 / -4.5 @ -103

Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 13.5

Time Total: 35:00 (over +143 / under -189)

Opened closer to even at +106 / -135

Excel have now dropped four straight and looked pretty terrible against Misfits yesterday. SK are very much the opposite, winners of four in a row with a comeback win against MAD Lions yesterday.

On the surface this looks like an easy SK Gaming bet. They’ve been much more consistent and don’t dig themselves into nearly as many holes as Excel have with their pourous early games. SK also have a better overall economy. This fits the eye test as well. SK Gaming look like they might end up being the playoff gatekeepers assuming Schalke and get it together after their five game skid. They’re not really that impressive but they’re playing solid LOL at the moment.

I absolutely hating getting the worst of the number. I’ll also remind people that Excel decisively won the first meeting between these two in under 30 minutes. SK was probably the side to take at the better number but I was too slow to the punch. This is Excel or pass but I make it close enough. I’ll pass on the side here.

I do, however, like SK first blood and the under time total. SK are picking up first blood at over a 58% clip while Excel have one of the lower rates in the major leagues with an under 17% rate. We’re getting -122 which is cheap even in a volatile prop market like first blood. Not just looking at average game times but just in general this is a really high number. Neither of these teams is over a 34 minute average and longer totals become less frequent as the season goes anyway.

My Picks:

Prop: SK Gaming first blood @ -122 (1.22 units) 

Time Total: UNDER 35:00 @ -189 (1.89 units)

 


Schalke 04 -145 vs Misfits +113

 

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -120 / under -109)

Kill Spread: -4.5 @ -114 / +4.5 @ -115

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 11.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -116 / under -112)

Both of these teams have had some really poor decision making over the past few weeks. For Schalke specifically I think most of their issues have been draft+overall philosophy problems in addition to a few big mistakes while Misfits have just been this way overall this season. People hate Nidalee because she’s a “feels bad” champion when she loses but I think Schalke likely shouldn’t be playing her with how they normally set things up. It’s not a good fit for what this team does. My hope is that they’ve learned that and make adjustments today.

Strictly by the numbers this is a Misfits play but again you could have had better value on them betting this earlier in the week. I, for one, think this has come back in the Schalke direction enough that I’m going to take a small position on them at this cheaper price. Schalke blew them out in the first meeting.

My Picks:

Moneyline: Schalke -145 (0.725 units)

 


Team Vitality +210 vs MAD Lions -278

 

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -114 / under -115)

Kill Spread: +7.5 @ -122 / -7.5 @ -106

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 15.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over +116 / under -152)

Opened +247 / -357.

This is a fairly big overreaction to the MAD Lions loss yesterday. Roughly a 5% implied odds change.

I’m not going to like MAD Lions as big favorites this season in much the same way I’m treating Evil Geniuses in the LCS. Their bottom lane has been way too inconsistent and their overall decision making hasn’t been either. Crownshow and Labrov have been nails together since Crownie joined the roster. Potentially volatile matchup there.

Vitality have been playing significantly better but with a few small tweaks in the draft I think they can put themselves in better situations than they’ve been in. They’re also coming out of the nightmarish part of their second round robin schedule having faced Rogue, Fnatic, and G2 in their past three.

I got in on the underdogs earlier this week at a much better number but I still like them at anything above +180. MAD aren’t consistent enough to be laying this kind of money to anybody really and Vitality are much better than their record. There is also the bottom lane mismatch based on what we’ve seen this season which is a clear avenue to victory for the dogs.

My Picks:

Kill Spread: Vitality +7.5 kills @ -122 (1.22 units)

Moneyline: Vitality +210 (0.5 units)

 


Rogue -714 vs Astralis +446

 

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -103 / under -120)

Kill Spread: -9.5 @ -115 / +9.5 @ -114

Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 6.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -114 / under -114)

The last time these two faced off was one of Rogue’s worst games of the split and they still ended up winning this 19-8 against a baron and ocean soul from Astralis.

Astralis have been playing significantly better LOL in recent weeks but Rogue are one of the elite teams in the LEC and I don’t see them playing as poorly as they did the first time. That said, the kill spread here is large and Rogue don’t seem to have any issues winning low scoring, grind it out type of games. I’ll be on the under 12.5 towers and Rogue first tower to win half a unit each.

My Picks:

Prop: Rogue first tower @ -250 (1.25 units)

Prop: UNDER 12.5 towers @ -270 (1.35 units)

 


G2 Esports -208 vs Fnatic +165

 

Kill Total: 31.5 (over -116 / under -112)

Kill Spread: -7.5 @ -110 / +7.5 @ -119

Team Kill Totals: 19.5 / 12.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over +100 / under -130)

“El Clasico” was -250 / +190 the first time around and the underdog Fnatic won.

Typically the play between these two has been to just take Fnatic whenever the price gets a little out of whack. Most people (not me) play the overs in these contests as well.

If you haven’t figured it out by those first bits I’m going to be on G2 and the under. Fnatic are a very good team but they’re highly volatile and if things don’t go their way early in games they’ve more or less been dead in the water. G2 have a significantly better kill-agnostic economy (and raw economy), team vision control, and are much more capable of recovering from a rough start. I also think they outclass Fnatic at every single position on the map (you could make an argument for top and jungle being roughly even I suppose).

It’s a bit cliche or whatever but I don’t see G2 losing twice to Fnatic and we’re getting a pretty good price on them here. The under is mostly just because I think there are more situations where this goes under. G2 lead? Under. Fnatic jump out to an early lead? I think about half the time this ends in an under if G2 slow the game down and other times Fnatic could just completely run the game over. I know they’re usually high scoring but 31.5 is a ridiculous number, even higher than the last time (30.5).

My Picks:

Moneyline: G2 -208 (2.08 units)

Kill Total: UNDER 31.5 @ -112 (1.12 units)

 

 


LOL Championship Series (LCS)

Week 4 – Day 2

 

I’ll be adding these to this post over the course of late Friday/early Saturday.

 

FlyQuest +335 vs Team Liquid -500

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -123 / under -105)

Kill Spread: +8.5 @ -118 / -8.5 @ -111

Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 16.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over +116 / under -152)

FlyQuest are looking less and less like what I thought they’d be with each passing week. I still think over the season they’ll be pretty good but right now the standout is Josedeodo and even when he’s way ahead they’re struggling. Liquid should mop the floor here. That said, I don’t like laying large kill spreads with this team but I also don’t think FlyQuest will be particularly competitive either.

Liquid first tower looks good to me though. High correlation play with winner and they’re 90%+ on it as well.

My Picks:

Prop: Liquid first tower @ -227 (2.27 units)

 


Counter Logic Gaming (CLG) +224 vs Team Solo Mid -303

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -110 / under -119)

Kill Spread: +7.5 @ -114 / -7.5 @ -115

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 15.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -200 / under +150)

We discussed this as a good spot to back CLG on The Gold Card Podcast this week and I still feel that way. CLG are close. They played MOSTLY well yesterday in their match against 100 Thieves and as frustrating as it was to find a way to lose that game it was really just a few small errors. It was also the full, intended roster’s first game in the LCS together. I expect CLG to be a scrappy underdog the rest of the season and think they’ll be a sneaky play in most spots moving forward, especially with such a depressed price. TSM are rolling but this is getting pricey.

My Picks:

Kill Spread: CLG +7.5 kills @ -114 (1.14 units)

Moneyline: CLG +224 (0.5 units)

 


100 Thieves -192 vs Dignitas +149

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -105 / under -123)

Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -110 / +5.5 @ -119

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 10.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -112 / under -116)

Opened -233 / +169

Dignitas keep on trucking along. They’re playing good, solid LOL and while I do think they’ll eventually crash back down to earth it’s tough to deny that they’ve looked solid while 100 Thieves have had some more suspect performances.

I was right between the opening number and current which indicates a play on 100 Thieves here but Dignitas prior to the movement. I’m just going to pass on this match. I can’t figure out how I think it’s most likely to play out and I’m not sure I want to get in front of this Dignitas team at the moment especially with a few of the shaky performances we’ve seen from 100 Thieves.

My Picks:

no wagers

 


Evil Geniuses +172 vs Cloud 9  -222

 

Kill Total: 27.5 (over -118 / under -111)

Kill Spread: +6.5 @ -119 / -6.5 @ -110

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 16.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over +141 / under -185)

Evil Geniuses are the volatility team. You’re going to want to back them as underdogs and avoid them as big favorites. Their ceiling games can beat any team in the league but they beat themselves fairly often.

That said, Cloud 9 are dominating right now and their economy numbers are actually world class. Blaber is playing at an MVP level and Perkz hasn’t even had to have many standout performances yet. They’re doing all of this while still somewhat carrying Fudge who I expect will only improve with more and more time in the league. It’s that top lane matchup that gives me a little cause for concern here though. If anything that’s what you point to as EG’s primary out but I’d assume Cloud 9 know this and have a plan in place for it.

I’m going to take the C9 kill spread here. They’ve covered this total in every single win this season which makes a lot of sense given how they play. In most winning game scripts they’re snowballing a massive lead and smashing in under 30 minutes. It wouldn’t surprise me to see a competitive game from EG as I mentioned, they’re an underdog I’m going to like but Cloud 9 are on another level at the moment and this is a cheap price and cheaper spread relative to the total.

My Picks:

Kill Spread: Cloud 9 -6.5 kills @ -110 (1.6 units)

 


Immortals -167 vs Golden Guardians +130

 

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -106 / under -122)

Kill Spread: -4.5 @ -109 / +4.5 @ -120

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -135 / under +104)

I know Immortals have been hit or miss but I’m taking every reasonable opportunity I possibly can against this Golden Guardians team. They’re a legitimate F-tier professional team which doesn’t come up often. They’re on fade until they show me that they’ve learned how to play the professional game and I think the fact that they’ve picked up two wins is honestly above expectation.

 My Picks:

Kill Spread: Immortals -4.5 kills @ -109 (1.09 units)

Kill Spread (alt): Immortals -5.5 kills @ +111 (0.5 units)

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

 

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