Friday, February 19th Recap


KT Rolster vs Fredit Brion (Net: +1.82 units)

All told this was an ugly series that likely should have gone to a game three. Both of these wins very easily could have been losses for KT Rolster in fact I’d say game one definitely should have been. Two very slow, very drawn out games with a lot of missed opportunities for both sides but Brion made the critical errors.

As discussed in yesterday’s post, Gideon made his debut and while these weren’t exactly the best games for him to get a lot done early, he performed well and remained composed in high leverage situations.

DRX vs T1 (Net: -2.42 units)

Game one was T1 trying to win with an Olaf four drake stack look but only picked up two of the first three and then had the fourth drake stolen by Kaisa. At that fourth drake they then all-in’d into a Kindred ultimate, got aced and the game turned from there for DRX. T1 didn’t build enough of an advantage with the Olaf and DRX kept the gold close enough and outscaled.

Game two was a weird one with a lot of back-and-forth where DRX had the gold advantage but T1 stacked four drakes for an ocean soul win.

Game three T1 gave DRX the Seraphine mid + Xayah carry combo and had Olaf + Renekton with a Kaisa carry. Seraphine is broken enough but playing these kinds of low range compositions into it. You’ll see again later with Vitality/Fnatic why this is a losing proposition.

Pyosik is so god damn good at his namesake Kindred.

Zeus had a really REALLY poor series in this one. You knew it was going to happen eventually with a 17 year old fresh to professional play. There were a handful of situations where he just looked completely oblivious as to what was going on on the map and a few highly disrespectful overstays against Kingen particularly in game one.

I’ll give DRX credit, they probably could have won game two if they managed to take any of the four dragons before ocean soul stacked up. They were ahead in gold by a few thousand when that happened and I thought a better scaling composition. Game one they were just the better team. Game three I throw out because Seraphine is broken as all hell. This might have actually been DRX’s best series of the season.T1 didn’t do themselves any favorites with the game three draft and Zeus having his first rough series but DRX earned this one.


Misfits vs Rogue (Net: +0.5 units)

Rogue continue to roll.

MAD Lions vs Excel Esports (Net: +1.0 units)

Got a little lucky on this one. Elyoya tried the Kayn, got his entire bottom side jungle late invaded and stolen which would have completely crippled his pace for the rest of the game but Excel’s bottom lane essentially allowed the Hail Mary gank bottom to happen even though they saw him clearing a ward. Don’t overreact to the box score in this one it easily could have gone the other way.

Schalke 04 vs SK Gaming (Net: -1.64 units)

Schalke lost this draft hard. If you’re going to play Nidalee with limited CC in your solo lanes you’ve got to be taking a full-court press type of approach and abusing the enemy jungle. They didn’t do that, SK just outscaled them.

Fnatic vs Vitality (Net: +3.64 units live)

Biggest draft gap in 2021. Let Fnatic jump out to a small lead in this one and hit it at the better number. The Discord yo!

G2 Esports vs Astralis (Net: no action)

Astralis actually kept this fairly close for most of the game before G2 pulled ahead in the mid game.


CLG vs C9 (Net: no action)

Fairly clinical by Cloud 9

Dignitas vs FlyQuest (Net: no action)

Dignitas were somewhat gifted one here but I liked their setup a lot more anyway because Seraphine is obviously very powerful and should be banned every game.

Golden Guardians vs Team Liquid (Net: +1.0 units)

Good team destroys awful team in sub 25 minutes.

TSM vs Evil Geniuses (Net: -1.0 units)

This was a closer game than the final score but TSM made fewer mistakes and Evil Geniuses looked desperate on a few different occasions.

Immortals vs 100 Thieves (Net: +0.75 units)

100 Thieves had this game done and dusted before Immortals pulled out a few miracle teamfights to give them at least a punchers chance. Ultimately 100 Thieves were just too far ahead and won.


LCK Net Total: -0.6 units

LEC Net Total: -0.14 units

LCS Net Total: +0.75 units


Will recap LEC/LCS in this post over course of tonight/tomorrow.


Daily Net Total: +0.01 units



LOL Champions Korea

Week 5 – Day 4


Nongshim RedForce +377 (+1.5 maps @ +112, -1.5 @ +876)


Gen.G -500 (-1.5 maps @ -143, +1.5 @ -2500)


Total Maps Played: 2.5 (over +159 / under -204)

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -116 / under -112)

Kill Spread: +7.5 @ -118 / -7.5 @ -111

Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 14.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over +105 / under -137)



(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)



Suggested Model Play: Gen.G moneyline and -1.5 maps (moderate value on market price)


Nongshim managed to take a decisive game one against Hanwha on Thursday but couldn’t do much else in the way of gaining advantages in that series after that despite remaining competitive on the kill scoreboard. They seem to have made the adaptation to put Bay on non-interactive champions or champions that get out of lane and roam to avoid extended 1v1’s where he’ll eventually lose to higher quality laners. It’s akin to Teacherma on Team WE but it’s only been a few games so we’ll see if that was just a series adjustment or a long term plan. That series didn’t really move the needle much for me on Nongshim.

Gen.G absolutely dominated Afreeca in game one and managed to come back from a 6-0 start to win in 27 minutes in one of the stranger games this season.

Even when games seem like they’re getting away from Gen.G they bring it back when you least expect them to. Personally I’d prefer if they never got into those situations in the first place but props where it’s due. The underlying metrics for this team are some of the best in the world and as they continue to refine their 2021 game I think this league is eventually going to become a two horse race the way it’s looking right now.

Gen.G are the side here. I’m not quite as bullish on them in this situation as my model is, especially given the chance that they might choose to start Flawless and/or Karis and/or Burdol in this match with Nongshim’s overall strength not looking so hot. Even if I make an adjustment of 5% downward for variance or motivation Gen.G are still the side here.

Keep an eye on lineup announcements.


Other Markets:


Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 26.393

Time-Implied: 24.307

Underdog Win: 19.598

“Gelati” Total Projection: 24.96 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total:  41.94% (GEG 45% / NS 38.89%)

Volatility Rating: GEG 0.31102 / NS 0.35757 (League AVG: 0.3184)

Suggested Model Play: UNDER 22.5 best value, 23.5 and 24.5 under prices slightly less so


We just saw a fairly bloody series from Nongshim against Hanwha but Hanwha seem to do that to everyone. Over the course of this season both of these teams have been straight up coin flips on kill totals. My projections have this going over because Gen.G tend to be in higher combined kills games when they’re winning (24.61 average). I’d expect this to land right about on the number so I’m going to pass.



Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 32.45 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 32.72 minutes / 33.05 minutes

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 71.11% (GEG 70% / NS 72.22%)

Volatility Rating: GEG 0.17424 / NS 0.18082  (League AVG: 0.14566)

Suggested Model Play: OVER 32:00 @ +105 (significant edge on market)


We just saw Gen.G boat race Afreeca even in game two despite giving up 6 kills to open the game but the vast majority of their wins this season have been over the 32:00 threshold. Gen.G average 32.83 minutes in wins, Nongshim average 34.41 in losses (median 31.25). Gen.G are way more likely to absolutely smoke teams than we’ve seen from their rough start this season. IF they’re anywhere near their normal form which I believe they’re rounding into then this is a spot where you want to go against projections and models and just pass. The price is right but the situation and data that it’s pulling from are on the lower range of expected outcomes for this Gen.G roster.


I’ll also be taking Gen.G first blood which has a large edge on the market price. Even with the volatility of first blood it’s worth a position.


My Picks:


IF Normal Gen.G starters (listed above)

Moneyline: Gen.G -500 (2.5 units)

Map Spread: Gen.G -1.5 maps @ -143 (0.3575units)

Prop: Map 1 Gen.G first blood @ -141 (0.705 units)

Prop: Map 2 Gen.G first blood @ -141 (0.705 units)

Prop: Map 3 Gen.G first blood @ -139 (0.695 units)



Hanwha Life Esports +311 (+1.5 maps @ -112, -1.5 @ +781)


DAMWON Kia Gaming -400 (-1.5 maps @ -114, +1.5 @ -1667)


Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +135 / under -172)

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -122 / under -106)

Kill Spread: +7.5 @ -125 / -7.5 @ -104

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 16.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -114 / under -115)


(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)


Suggested Model Play: Hanwha Life +1.5 maps @ -112

I think calls of DAMWON’s regression are a bit too loud at the moment. This team is still putting up world class economy and objective metrics, their individual players are all performing at “league best” consideration levels, and they’ve been doing so with a completely new look and new coaching staff that I’d assume is only going to improve as they get more familiar with each other. They’ve shown that they’re mortal but this is still the best team in Korea and statistically they’re the best by a lot.

Hanwha Life have been getting it done in a more unorthodox way relying VERY HEAVILY on kills for their primary income. Hanwha actually have the third lowest kill agnostic gold per minute and kill agnostic gold differential per minute despite having the 4th best overall gold per minute in the LCK. In some ways this makes sense, given the high combined total games they’ve taken part in but I’ve expressed concerns on multiple occasions now that playing this way makes it very difficult to parse out just how good a team is. Kills themselves are variant by nature. You can identify trends in totals and production but generally speaking matchups, set plays, and execution all add varying degrees of volatility. For this reason, I’ve never been high on teams that rely heavily on kills to gain advantages. Hanwha Life are not a strong fundamental team but they are excellent skirmishers that play the game more in the style of the LPL; fight first, ask questions later. For that reason, they’re going to be a volatile team.

DAMWON have been playing “bad” relative to their expected level of performance and they’re still the best team in Korea and still putting up better numbers in just about every relevant category than almost every team in the world. It’s a little weird to say it but I actually think DAMWON are somehow being undervalued right now. That said, this price has moved into the range where I think you’ve got to consider taking some Hanwha Life or at the very least not backing DAMWON. DAMWON won game one of the first series after first blood, first tower, first herald, and first dragon went to Hanwha Life all in the first 16 minutes of that game and what did they have to show for it? DAMWON were leading by 116 gold. You really can’t ask for a much better start and they had Senna scaling, and they put Khan down 0-6 on his Quinn and they still couldn’t do it. It’s not like this game went to 50 minutes either, DAMWON managed to close the door in 34:44. Game two was a shellacking.

I’ll be passing on a side in this contest mostly because I’m still not buying Hanwha Life until they show me they can do it in other ways besides making everything a Quentin Tarantino movie. Also, if they had the kind of advantage they did in game one of the first series and still couldn’t do it then imagine if DAMWON have things their way at all.

Other Markets:


Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 26.066

Time-Implied: 26.133

Underdog Win: 25.321

“Gelati” Total Projection: 25.821 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 47.32% (DWG 37.5% / HLE 57.14%)

Suggested Model Play: none


Feels like an over to me but the total is also shifted up so I’ll pass.


Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 32.299 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 32.52 minutes / 32.7 minutes

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 64.58% (DWG 62.5% / HLE 66.67%)

Volatility Rating: DWG 0.18933 / HLE 0.08219 (League AVG: 0.14566)

Suggested Model Play: OVER 32:00 @ -114 (double digit edge on market)


Hanwha Life have been incredibly consistent in how their games play out from a time total perspective. All but one game has fallen between the 27.65 and 34.73 minute mark with an average of 31.17 minutes. Just something to note.

DWG are averaging 33.43 minutes per game but 31.74 in wins. Hanwha are averaging 31.17 per game, 30.84 in wins, 31.53 in losses.  While the majority of games for each of these teams has gone over this total, it’s all been relatively close. DAMWON in particular are capable of speedrunning just about any team in the world on any given day.

I’m passing on a time total but I would lean over, especially if you’re of the mind that this will be a messy slobberknocker of a series. I’m not quite there.

For the other derivative markets you can rarely go wrong with DAMWON first herald which, even at this price, is showing a nice advantage. Keep in mind though that Hanwha are over 50% on this as well and you’re getting huge plus odds on it. These are both very similar teams in style in that they’re very first herald centric but DAMWON are just better at it.


My Picks:


Prop: Map 1 DAMWON first herald @ -189 (0.945 units)

Prop: Map 2 DAMWON first herald @ -189 (0.945 units)

Prop: Map 3 DAMWON first herald @ -189 (0.945 units)




LOL European Championship (LEC)

Week 5 – Day 2



Excel Esports -192 vs Astralis +149


Kill Total: 23.5 (over -125 / under -105)

Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -111 / +5.5 @ -118

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 9.5

Time Total: OTB

Astralis are starting to look better despite still losing games. They were competitive for the majority of their match against G2 yesterday but simply couldn’t hold up. Excel were completely run over by MAD Lions. If you look at the body of work over the season this is a slam dunk Excel play especially because they’ve also been improving as the season has gone on. With that in mind, Astralis have looked significantly better in their past few matches and if Excel are simply going to play the scaling game against another team that’s more than willing to do the same, it makes this essentially a coin flip situation which makes me like the underdogs. Astralis could just as easily turn into a pumpkin again so I’m going to pass this one.


My Picks:

 no wagers


Misfits -101 vs SK Gaming -127


Kill Total: 23.5 (over -119 / under -110)

Kill Spread: +2.5 @ -119 / -2.5 @ -110

Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 12.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -109 / under -120)

SK Gaming won through attrition against Schalke’s limited CC + Nidalee composition simply by chillin out and waiting to win. Smart decision on their part. This team continues to perform well enough to earn some respect. They aren’t a bad team by any stretch even if I think their ceiling is a bit capped and Treatz has really impressed me through the halfway point of the season. Misfits got completely dismantled by Rogue to nobody’s surprise but have been a very feast or famine team.

I actually like SK Gaming here for a few reasons, most of them film based. SK Gaming have shown a proficiency to outlast these early game snowballing teams except for the elite ones. Misfits showed a bit of a different look yesterday but for the most part have heavily indexed into early game and laning champions to try to snowball games. Even when they do they’ve been sloppy at closing games out.  I’m passing but if I had to take a side it would be SK.


My Picks:

 no wagers


Team Vitality +334 vs Rogue -476


Kill Total: 22.5 (over -111 / under -118)

Kill Spread: +7.5 @ -108 / -7.5 @ -122

Team Kill Totals: 7.5 / 14.5

Time Total: 30:00 (over -204 / under +154)

Vitality pulled one out yesterday against Fnatic by weathering the early storm and scaling with Seraphine. We talked about this on the podcast this week but Fnatic are a much more volatile team than Rogue are and if you were going to fire a bullet on Vitality being better in their second week with with Crownshot that was the one to fire. Plus, I don’t think favorites are going to continue giving up Seraphine in professional games for much longer so I wouldn’t rely on that either.

I’m long on Vitality but Rogue are the side here.


My Picks:

Moneyline: Rogue -476 ( 2.38 units)

I’m using Rogue as a leg in a parlay you’ll see below as well.


Fnatic -164 vs MAD Lions +128


Kill Total: 31.5 (over -112 / under -116)

Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -110 / +5.5 @ -119

Team Kill Totals: 18.5 / 13.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over +109 / under -143)

Fnatic got draft gapped really REALLY hard by Vitality yesterday and picked themselves multiple melees into Seraphine, Rell, Xayah, and Aatrox which made Vitality’s job insanely easy. I’d say that’s a pretty easy lesson to learn but this team is gonig to play dive more or less no matter what you do so it’ll be interesting to see how they handle it.

MAD Lions ended up smashing Excel but that game very easily could have been competitive or even a loss if Excel didn’t give up the Hail Mary touchdown. Elyoya picked Kayn and Excel had the answer to late invade, deny his entire bottom side jungle. Kayn is barely a champion until he gets transformation and also needs a lot of items. It’s a very high risk, very high reward type of champion as if you actually get the resources he can hard carry a game but he’s terrible otherwise. Elyoya and MAD did have any idea the late invade even happened. This could have been a borderline game ender so he had to make a desperation play and gank bottom. Excel’s bottom lane saw him on a ward and still shoved up wanting to get the wave reset. Elyoya scored a kill and that potential shutdown of the jungler that could have won them this game was all for nothing because of hubris. In other words, MAD got pretty lucky so don’t just look at the box score and assume this was a smashing, it all hinged on that one poor decision or this could have been the opposite result. I’m still skeptical of MAD’s recent performance.

We’re getting Fnatic at about a 20 cent overreaction discount and I’m going to take them here. I really want to take the under 31.5 as well but with how sloppy MAD’s bottom lane has been over the first half of the season I’m just to afraid this game devolves into madness early. I think this is just a close your eyes special though. Half stake on the under.


My Picks:

Moneyline: Fnatic -164 (1.64 units)

Kill Total: UNDER 31.5 @ -116 (0.58 units)

I’m using Fnatic as a leg in a parlay you’ll see below as well.


Schalke 04 +240 vs G2 Esports -345


Kill Total: 30.5 (over -104 / under -125)

Kill Spread: +8.5 @ -119 / -8.5 @ -110

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 19.5

Time Total: OTB

The giant slayers brought themselves down yesterday with a weird draft against SK Gaming however they did beat G2 earlier this season in a game where Wunder tried the Kled counter to Aatrox and, obviously, that didn’t work out.

Unless you think G2 take their foot off the gas for this match they’re absolutely the side. Given the “revenge” narrative in place here I think they’ll show up and they’ve been a world class team by most metrics, despite being terrible against the spread this season.

I’m going to be running a few parlays with Rogue, G2, and Fnatic in this spot. Generally parlays are something you want to avoid unless you’re just playing them recreationally. They’re -EV. The books essentially hide extra juice by selling the sizzle of a higher payout. A little math will show you that you’d be better off playing both games individually. However, if you believe you have a strong edge on all legs of a parlay it can amplify your advantage. That’s the case with the favorites here today.

Don’t parlay just because you don’t want to lay a big money straight up. Don’t “just throw it in a parlay” which frequently means you’re not actually as confident in the position or your advantage as you think. You’re quite literally better off just laying the big moneyline flat staking. Only parlay if you have a substantial edge on the market in ALL legs in which case it actually is a good play. I’ll be talking about this in more detail in an upcoming “Betting 101” style article and podcast.


My Picks:

Moneyline: G2 -345 (1.725 units)


Round Robin:

Parlay (2): G2 moneyline + Rogue moneyline @ -168 (0.59 units)

Parlay (2): G2 moneyline + Fnatic moneyline @ +108 (0.25 units)

Parlay (2): Rogue moneyline + Fnatic moneyline @ +100 (0.25 units)

Parlay (3): Rogue moneyline + G2 moneyline + Fnatic moneyline @ +156 (0.25 units)


LOL Championship Series (LCS)

Week 3 – Day 2



Cloud 9 -357 vs Dignitas +259


Kill Total: 24.5 (over -108 / under -122)

Kill Spread: -7.5 @ -127 / +7.5 @ -103

Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 8.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over +123 / under -161)

So typically in a spot like this the “obvious” play is to fade the Dignitas hype but this team is legitimately playing pretty well right now. Do I think they’re actually this good long term? No not really but sometimes a team is just playing well in the moment. It happens.

Cloud 9 have a strong case for best team in the league but the LCS has been extremely volatile this season and there’s just no way I’m laying this kind of moneyline in a best-of-one in this league with how well Dignitas have been playing recently. If anything I’d actually lean toward the Dignitas side of this.

I do, however, love the over here. 24.5 is on the higher side but C9 have scored 22.5 kills per win this season and have had at least 15 in every win. They’re playing very fast and loose looking to trade bodies for resources a la Fnatic or even Hanwha. Overs have hit in 5 out of 7 matches with an average total of 24.64 kills this season in C9 games.


My Picks:

Kill Total: OVER 24.5 @ -108 (1.62 units)


CLG -143 vs Immortals +108


Kill Total: 23.5 (over -118 / under -111)

Kill Spread: -1.5 @ -114 / +1.5 @ -115

Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 11.5

Time Total: 34:00 (over +111 / under -145)



Immortals have been struggling since week one but I do think this team will eventually get it together and be competitive. They’re the worst team that isn’t Golden Guardians at the moment but they’re significantly better than that team which looks like a complete dumpster fire.

CLG looked pretty good in Broxah’s debut even with the jet lag and limited practice time and that was against a very strong Cloud 9 squad. They’re only going to get better from here.

I don’t like backing hype or one good performance but I do think CLG are the side in this contest. They’re just looked like the slightly better team even without Broxah in and with him I think there’s a chance they could get a bit of a bump like we saw yesterday.  I don’t hate their team total over either here but I’m going with an alternate kill spread.


My Picks:

Kill Spread (alt): CLG -3.5 @ +105 (1 unit)


Team Solo Mid +121 vs 100 Thieves -154


Kill Total: 23.5 (over -118 / under -111)

Kill Spread: +4.5 @ -118 / -4.5 @ -111

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 13.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -105 / under -123)

As I mentioned earlier, I don’t like to overreact to TSM suddenly looking good but they do look more like what I’d imagined they’d be going into the season. If anything they’re ahead of schedule, I thought they’d have a much longer “rough” patch at the beginning. Bjergsen mentioned in an interview yesterday that he feels like he has a much stronger grasp on the draft nuances with his team now and that the players are starting to gel together. Makes sense given the quality of play that we’ve seen from them over the past week or so.

100 Thieves continue to roll over early games but have shown a few lapses in judgment when closing out with a lead. I’m not entirely sure what this team is going to look like in more neutral game states. This is something to monitor moving forward and could be cause for concern. That said, I do think they have the right idea and they should be playing this way and just improving on it.

100 Thieves are a tough challenge but I do think this is fairly close to a coin flip game. I’ll be taking the underdogs here. TSM have shown me enough good things in the past week or so that I think they’re now in this mid table conversation. They’re legitimately just playing really well. I also think they have the better mid+jungle duo and that 100 Thieves have some things that could be exposed by a more disciplined team.


My Picks:

Moneyline: TSM +121 (1 unit)


Team Liquid -244 vs Evil Geniuses +184


Kill Total: 23.5 (over -114 / under -115)

Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -104 / +6.5 @ -125

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over +131 / under -172)



Evil Geniuses have had a rough go of it in their past few matches and look a lot more out of sync than they had at the Lock-In. There’s a chance this was just a bad few matches but it might also speak to the rest of the league becoming a bit more refined than they were a few weeks ago. In other words, there’s a chance EG were just better earlier and haven’t really improved since then.

You could say similar things about Team Liquid who have had a few weird losses but overall I do think they’ve been the better team this season and they came right back yesterday with a shellacking of a bad Golden Guardians squad.

This is battle between fire and ice. If Liquid get a hold of the early game this is going to be a quiet one. If not I could see this getting silly with how many of EG’s games have played out this season.

Liquid are a much better team but I make this line fairly close to this number. My model does as well. Too many of the derivatives are reliant on how this plays out so this is a pass all around.


My Picks:

 no wagers


FlyQuest -244 vs Golden Guardians +186


Kill Total: 23.5 (over -123 / under -105)

Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -120 / +5.5 @ -109

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over +138 / under -182)

I’m going to keep this simple. Golden Guardians are absolutely terrible and in a tier all their own at the bottom of the league. It feels really weird to say FlyQuest are a value at this price but Golden Guardians really are that bad to me. I’ll be on the favorites here.

My Picks:

Kill Spread (alt): FlyQuest -7.5 kills @ +123 (0.5 units)

Kill Spread (alt): FlyQuest -8.5 kills @ +151 (0.5 units)


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

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