Friday, August 6th Recap
Victory Five vs LGD Gaming (Net: +0.66 units)
JD Gaming vs Rogue Warriors (Net: +3.27 units)
DRX vs KT Rolster (Net: +0.05 units)
T1 vs Gen.G (no action)
LPL Net Total: +3.93 units
LCK Net Total: +0.05 units
Daily Net Total: +3.98 units
LPL Summer 2021
Week Nine – Day Six
Invictus Gaming -370 (-1.5 maps @ -115, +1.5 @ -1429)
vs
ThunderTalk (TT) Gaming +270 (+1.5 maps @ -111, -1.5 @ +675)
Map Moneyline: IG -278 / TT +208
Kill Total: 27.5 (over -114 / under -115)
Kill Spread: -7.5 @ -105 / +7.5 @ -123
Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 10.5
Time Total: OTB
Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -235 / +179 (map), -347 / +255 (series), +108 / -138 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)
Model Suggested Play: TT +1.5 maps (light)
Starters:
IG – TheShy, XUN, Rookie, Wink, Lucas
TT – Xiao7, Xiaopeng, Ye, SamD, Pudding
| Trends | |||||||||||
| IG as Favorites | Win/Over | Loss/Under | Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) | TT as Underdogs | Win/Over | Loss/Under | Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) | ||||
| Matches as Favorites | 2 | 3 | -594 | Matches as Underdogs | 1 | 13 | +568 | ||||
| Against Map Spread | 2 | 3 | -89 | Against Map Spread | 4 | 10 | +86 | ||||
| Against Kill Spread | 2 | 10 | 7.1 | Against Kill Spread | 12 | 19 | +8 | ||||
| Kill Totals | 7 | 5 | 25.70 | Kill Totals | 13 | 18 | 25.64 | ||||
| Team Kill Totals | 5 | 7 | 15.90 | Team Kill Totals | 13 | 18 | 8.86 | ||||
| Game Time Totals | 7 | 5 | 30.0 | Game Time Totals | 16 | 15 | 29.86 | ||||
| Dragons over 4.5 | 4 | 8 | Dragons over 4.5 | 14 | 17 | ||||||
| Towers over 11.5 | 6 | 6 | Towers over 11.5 | 17 | 14 | ||||||
| League Rank | Invictus | Tale of the Tape | TT | League Rank |
| 7 | 159.4 | Gold Diff @ 10 min | -728.9 | 14 |
| 11 | -714.1 | Gold Diff @ 15 min | -974.3 | 13 |
| 12 | -1087.5 | Gold Diff @ 20 min | -1037.5 | 15 |
| 1.1 | GPM first 20 min vs Avg | -65.8 | ||
| 11 | -28.9 | Gold Diff / min first 20 | -128.6 | 15 |
| 8 | 373.8 | Gold Diff / min Rest of Game | -144.4 | 17 |
| 11 | 1787.7 | Gold /min (GPM) | 1656.2 | 16 |
| -1.2 | Gold / min vs Avg | -132.6 | ||
| 11 | -40.7 | Gold Diff / min | -251.3 | 16 |
| 11 | -0.6 | Gold Percent Rating (GPR) | -3.5 | 16 |
| 10 | 1601.6 | Kill Agnostic GPM | 1521.4 | 16 |
| 10 | -6.1 | Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min | -141.3 | 16 |
| 3 | 1993.4 | GPM in wins | 1853.2 | 17 |
| 6 | 349.4 | Gold Diff per min in wins | 227.6 | 16 |
| 5 | 1646.9 | GPM in losses | 1603.2 | 12 |
| 6 | -307.7 | Gold Diff per min in losses | -380.3 | 15 |
| -37.5 | Adjusted Gold Diff / min | -248.1 | ||
| 3 | 45.2 | Win-Adjusted GPM | -95.0 | 17 |
| 6 | 26.7 | Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min | -95.1 | 16 |
| 7 | 52.3 | Dragon Control % | 42.8 | 15 |
| 3 | 60.9 | Herald Control % | 54.7 | 7 |
| 8 | 53.7 | Baron Control % | 31.6 | 16 |
| 4.0 | Quality Wins? | #N/A | ||
| 30.8 | % of wins as Quality | #N/A |
(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)
Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):
| Series Outcomes | ||
| Wins | Losses | Probability |
| 2 | 0 | 45.121% |
| 2 | 1 | 29.624% |
| 1 | 2 | 14.478% |
| 0 | 2 | 10.777% |
| (Series Win): | 74.745% | |
Meaningless match in the grand scheme of things. Both teams just playing for pride after elimination. Invictus looked absolutely awful against RareAtom after winning game one of that series. Granted that’s a much higher level of opponent than TT but still. I could see this turning into a circus. The model has flagged kill total unders as a MASSIVE edge on book price (double digits) but given the circumstances I’m not touching that.
I like the tower total over especially because I could see TheShy just picking some random split pushing champion to attempt to get his swagger back. Maybe Quinn or Fiora or something like that. These teams in a neutral setting would warrant a play on the over 12.5 towers anyway at this number given frequencies but I like it even more here. The other advantaged play is TT first herald (59.38% vs 66.67% for TT at plus money). I’ll stick to tower total over. First dragon and blood are also advantageous if you prefer those.
My Picks:
Prop: Map 1 OVER 12.5 towers @ +178 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 2 OVER 12.5 towers @ +187 (1 unit)
Royal Never Give Up -357 (-1.5 maps @ -106, +1.5 @ -1250)
vs
BiliBili Gaming +259 (+1.5 maps @ -120, -1.5 @ +629)
Map Moneyline: RNG -250 / BLG +190
Kill Total: 26.5 (over -114 / under -115)
Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -105 / +6.5 @ -123
Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 10.5
Time Total: 31:00 (over -114 / under -114)
Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -117 / -108 (map), -119 / -106 (series), +245 / -335 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)
Model Suggested Play: BLG series moneyline, +1.5, -1.5 maps (very strong)
Starters:
RNG – Xiaohu, Wei, Cryin, GALA, Ming
BLG – Biubiu, Weiwei, Zeka, Aiming, ppgod
| Trends | |||||||||||
| RNG as Favorites | Win/Over | Loss/Under | Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) | BLG as Underdogs | Win/Over | Loss/Under | Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) | ||||
| Matches as Favorites | 9 | 3 | -1039 | Matches as Underdogs | 3 | 5 | +205 | ||||
| Against Map Spread | 7 | 5 | -36 | Against Map Spread | 6 | 2 | -159 | ||||
| Against Kill Spread | 17 | 11 | 7.3 | Against Kill Spread | 10 | 10 | +6 | ||||
| Kill Totals | 16 | 12 | 26.00 | Kill Totals | 11 | 9 | 25.50 | ||||
| Team Kill Totals | 16 | 12 | 15.92 | Team Kill Totals | 11 | 9 | 10.13 | ||||
| Game Time Totals | 11 | 17 | 30.1 | Game Time Totals | 12 | 8 | 31.00 | ||||
| Dragons over 4.5 | 11 | 17 | Dragons over 4.5 | 7 | 13 | ||||||
| Towers over 11.5 | 15 | 13 | Towers over 11.5 | 12 | 8 | ||||||
| League Rank | Royal Never GU | Tale of the Tape | BiliBili | League Rank |
| 9 | -2.4 | Gold Diff @ 10 min | 410.9 | 6 |
| 2 | 1017.4 | Gold Diff @ 15 min | 809.3 | 4 |
| 6 | 1250.0 | Gold Diff @ 20 min | 575.0 | 7 |
| 60.9 | GPM first 20 min vs Avg | 23.7 | ||
| 3 | 72.8 | Gold Diff / min first 20 | 36.5 | 7 |
| 7 | 405.3 | Gold Diff / min Rest of Game | 439.4 | 4 |
| 2 | 1886.9 | Gold /min (GPM) | 1842.8 | 5 |
| 98.0 | Gold / min vs Avg | 53.9 | ||
| 3 | 148.0 | Gold Diff / min | 85.5 | 6 |
| 3 | 2.1 | Gold Percent Rating (GPR) | 1.2 | 6 |
| 2 | 1666.3 | Kill Agnostic GPM | 1638.9 | 4 |
| 3 | 100.4 | Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min | 59.4 | 5 |
| 5 | 1988.8 | GPM in wins | 1990.2 | 4 |
| 5 | 365.6 | Gold Diff per min in wins | 365.7 | 4 |
| 2 | 1683.0 | GPM in losses | 1626.6 | 10 |
| 4 | -287.2 | Gold Diff per min in losses | -325.4 | 10 |
| 151.2 | Adjusted Gold Diff / min | 88.8 | ||
| 5 | 40.5 | Win-Adjusted GPM | 42.0 | 4 |
| 5 | 42.9 | Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min | 43.0 | 4 |
| 9 | 50.3 | Dragon Control % | 53.2 | 6 |
| 5 | 58.3 | Herald Control % | 51.4 | 9 |
| 5 | 60.4 | Baron Control % | 65.1 | 2 |
| 15.0 | Quality Wins? | 15.0 | ||
| 62.5 | % of wins as Quality | 68.2 |
(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)
Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):
| Series Outcomes | ||
| Wins | Losses | Probability |
| 2 | 0 | 25.997% |
| 2 | 1 | 25.484% |
| 1 | 2 | 24.497% |
| 0 | 2 | 24.023% |
| (Series Win): | 51.480% | |
I’m not quite as bearish on RNG as the model is in this spot but I do genuinely think this is significantly closer to a 50/50 match than the market price which implies a no vig outcome of roughly 67/33%. BiliBili have been steadily improving as the season goes along and this roster builds chemistry. They’re a legitimately good squad that I think are heading into the playoffs as a one of the only real dark horse candidates to beat these top teams. Am I saying BLG is better than RNG? No but this number is downright disrespectful.
For derivatives your best bets are the under dragons and RNG first blood anywhere around -180 range is a decent price. While RNG have an excellent first tower rate, getting +182 on BLG who have a 56.7% first tower rate isn’t bad either. I’m just sticking to sides on this one.
My Picks:
Map Spread: BLG +1.5 maps @ -120 (2.4 units)
Moneyline: BLG +260 (1 unit)
Map Spread: BLG -1.5 maps @ +630 (0.25 units)
LCK Summer 2021
Week Nine – Day Three
Afreeca Freecs +175 (+1.5 maps @ -175, -1.5 @ +438)
vs
Nongshim RedForce -213 (-1.5 maps @ +137, +1.5 @ -714)
Map Moneyline: AF +147 / NS -189
Kill Total: 23.5 (over -103 / under -127)
Kill Spread: +4.5 @ -110 / -4.5 @ -119
Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 12.5
Time Total: 33:00 (over -154 / under +118)
Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: +105 / -133 (map), +117 / -140 (series), -280 / +211 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)
Model Suggested Play: Afreeca series moneyline, +1.5 maps, and -1.5 maps (strong)
| Trends | |||||||||||
| NS as Favorites | Win/Over | Loss/Under | Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) | AF as Underdogs | Win/Over | Loss/Under | Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) | ||||
| Matches as Favorites | 7 | 3 | -199 | Matches as Underdogs | 7 | 4 | +171 | ||||
| Against Map Spread | 2 | 8 | +163 | Against Map Spread | 8 | 3 | -203 | ||||
| Against Kill Spread | 12 | 15 | 4.0 | Against Kill Spread | 18 | 10 | +4 | ||||
| Kill Totals | 12 | 15 | 23.40 | Kill Totals | 11 | 17 | 23.32 | ||||
| Team Kill Totals | 13 | 14 | 13.00 | Team Kill Totals | 15 | 13 | 9.86 | ||||
| Game Time Totals | 16 | 11 | 32.9 | Game Time Totals | 19 | 9 | 32.55 | ||||
| Dragons over 4.5 | 16 | 11 | Dragons over 4.5 | 18 | 10 | ||||||
| Towers over 11.5 | 9 | 17 | Towers over 11.5 | 15 | 13 | ||||||
| League Rank | NS | Tale of the Tape | AF | League Rank |
| 2.0 | 227.2 | Gold Diff @ 10 min | 155.9 | 5.0 |
| 6.0 | -138.8 | Gold Diff @ 15 min | 69.2 | 4.0 |
| 3.0 | 63.6 | Gold Diff @ 20 min | -49.0 | 5.0 |
| -31.2 | GPM first 20 min vs Avg | -2.2 | ||
| 3.0 | 6.9 | Gold Diff / min first 20 | 5.3 | 5.0 |
| 3.0 | 138.8 | Gold Diff / min Rest of Game | -55.9 | 6.0 |
| 5.0 | 1785.0 | Gold /min (GPM) | 1747.6 | 7.0 |
| 14.1 | Gold / min vs Avg | -23.3 | ||
| 4.0 | 50.2 | Gold Diff / min | -17.0 | 6.0 |
| 4.0 | 0.7 | Gold Percent Rating (GPR) | -0.2 | 6.0 |
| 5.0 | 1614.3 | Kill Agnostic GPM | 1611.7 | 6.0 |
| 4.0 | 17.5 | Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min | -11.2 | 6.0 |
| 8.0 | 1889.9 | GPM in wins | 1876.2 | 10.0 |
| 9.0 | 254.0 | Gold Diff per min in wins | 262.9 | 8.0 |
| 7.0 | 1610.1 | GPM in losses | 1625.4 | 5.0 |
| 4.0 | -289.4 | Gold Diff per min in losses | -283.0 | 3.0 |
| 50.1 | Adjusted Gold Diff / min | -17.2 | ||
| 8.0 | -29.1 | Win-Adjusted GPM | -42.8 | 10.0 |
| 9.0 | -43.2 | Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min | -34.3 | 8.0 |
| 5.0 | 51.8 | Dragon Control % | 50.3 | 6.0 |
| 4.0 | 53.8 | Herald Control % | 53.2 | 5.0 |
| 4.0 | 55.6 | Baron Control % | 42.9 | 7.0 |
| 7.0 | Quality Wins? | 8.0 | ||
| 38.9 | % of wins as Quality | 42.1 |
(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)
Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):
| Series Outcomes | ||
| Wins | Losses | Probability |
| 2 | 0 | 29.253% |
| 2 | 1 | 26.862% |
| 1 | 2 | 22.804% |
| 0 | 2 | 21.081% |
| (Series Win): | 56.115% | |
I sound like a broken record at this point but the simple fact of the matter here is that Nongshim are being way overrated. This is a good, solid team but they’re vastly exceeding expectation in the wins column compared to their actual performance. Even if we give them some credit for not always necessarily being a metrics super team as teams that play this way are (think EDG Spring) this is still a bit too disrespectful to an Afreeca team that vastly underachieved expectation based on performance.
With a win here, Afreeca would force KT Rolster to win out including defeating Afreeca next week. Afreeca control their own destiny with their remaining series after this one against the two teams also vying for that sixth and final playoff seed in Hanwha and KT Rolster. I think they’re the best team of the bunch by a good margin. The model agrees as you can see below.
| After W9 Day 2 | ||
| Team | Power # | Rank |
| DWG | 1.082266293 | 1 |
| T1 | 0.8671235314 | 2 |
| GEG | 0.3881189645 | 3 |
| NS | 0.323850069 | 4 |
| LSB | 0.2051882315 | 5 |
| AF | 0.1086284359 | 6 |
| KT | -0.3676836511 | 7 |
| HLE | -0.4119721726 | 8 |
| BRO | -0.852078265 | 9 |
| DRX | -1.343441437 | 10 |
To me, I’d bet this in a vacuum in a neutral setting like in the middle of the regular season but with the added motivation for Afreeca as icing on the cake, Afreeca’s price being depressed, and Nongshim’s being overinflated this is sort of a perfect storm situation. Another bonus is that this line has moved toward Nongshim as the week has progressed.
I’m all over Afreeca here as well as first herald and our map one angle.
My Picks:
Map Spread: Afreeca +1.5 maps @ -175 (1.75 units)
Moneyline: Afreeca +175 (1 unit)
Map Spread: Afreeca -1.5 maps @ +438 (0.25 units)
—
Map One Angles
Time Total: Map 1 OVER 33:00 @ -154 (1.54 unit)
Kill Total (alt): UNDER 22.5 @ -102 (1.02 units)
Fredit Brion +194 (+1.5 maps @ -156, -1.5 @ +467)
vs
Liiv Sandbox -238 (-1.5 maps @ +122, +1.5 @ -769)
Map Moneyline: BRO +156 / LSB -200
Kill Total: 23.5 (over -118 / under -111)
Kill Spread: +5.5 @ -108 /. -5.5 @ -122
Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 13.5
Time Total: 33:00 (over -104 / under -123)
Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: +198 / -259 (map), +304 / -392 (series), -122 / -104 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)
Model Suggested Play: LSB series moneyline and -1.5 maps (strong)
| Trends | |||||||||||
| LSB as Favorites | Win/Over | Loss/Under | Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) | BRO as Underdogs | Win/Over | Loss/Under | Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) | ||||
| Matches as Favorites | 3 | 2 | -230 | Matches as Underdogs | 4 | 10 | +252 | ||||
| Against Map Spread | 2 | 3 | +118 | Against Map Spread | 11 | 3 | -116 | ||||
| Against Kill Spread | 5 | 7 | 4.1 | Against Kill Spread | 19 | 17 | +6 | ||||
| Kill Totals | 5 | 7 | 23.50 | Kill Totals | 13 | 23 | 22.79 | ||||
| Team Kill Totals | 6 | 6 | 13.10 | Team Kill Totals | 18 | 18 | 8.64 | ||||
| Game Time Totals | 7 | 5 | 33.0 | Game Time Totals | 17 | 19 | 32.43 | ||||
| Dragons over 4.5 | 8 | 4 | Dragons over 4.5 | 22 | 14 | ||||||
| Towers over 11.5 | 6 | 6 | Towers over 11.5 | 14 | 22 | ||||||
| League Rank | LSB | Tale of the Tape | BRO | League Rank |
| 6.0 | 2.2 | Gold Diff @ 10 min | -744.3 | 10.0 |
| 9.0 | -528.6 | Gold Diff @ 15 min | -1696.7 | 10.0 |
| 7.0 | -811.0 | Gold Diff @ 20 min | -2731.5 | 10.0 |
| 15.7 | GPM first 20 min vs Avg | -63.7 | ||
| 7.0 | 1.7 | Gold Diff / min first 20 | -41.8 | 9.0 |
| 5.0 | 62.7 | Gold Diff / min Rest of Game | -94.7 | 7.0 |
| 4.0 | 1790.3 | Gold /min (GPM) | 1726.0 | 9.0 |
| 19.4 | Gold / min vs Avg | -44.9 | ||
| 5.0 | 13.6 | Gold Diff / min | -56.5 | 8.0 |
| 5.0 | 0.2 | Gold Percent Rating (GPR) | -0.8 | 9.0 |
| 2.0 | 1632.8 | Kill Agnostic GPM | 1591.1 | 9.0 |
| 5.0 | 14.7 | Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min | -48.9 | 9.0 |
| 6.0 | 1923.1 | GPM in wins | 1924.3 | 5.0 |
| 7.0 | 266.1 | Gold Diff per min in wins | 289.2 | 6.0 |
| 9.0 | 1599.4 | GPM in losses | 1577.2 | 10.0 |
| 10.0 | -349.4 | Gold Diff per min in losses | -315.8 | 6.0 |
| 13.5 | Adjusted Gold Diff / min | -56.7 | ||
| 6.0 | 4.1 | Win-Adjusted GPM | 5.3 | 5.0 |
| 7.0 | -31.1 | Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min | -8.0 | 6.0 |
| 4.0 | 55.5 | Dragon Control % | 57.6 | 1.0 |
| 3.0 | 54.8 | Herald Control % | 40.2 | 10.0 |
| 3.0 | 56.9 | Baron Control % | 36.5 | 8.0 |
| 9.0 | Quality Wins? | 9.0 | ||
| 60.0 | % of wins as Quality | 39.1 |
(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)
Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):
| Series Outcomes | ||
| Wins | Losses | Probability |
| 2 | 0 | 47.990% |
| 2 | 1 | 29.490% |
| 1 | 2 | 13.079% |
| 0 | 2 | 9.440% |
| (Series Win): | 77.480% | |
Brion are eliminated from playoff contention and while Sandbox have locked up a spot, they could still achieve as high as the #1 seed although top two is the more important part of that. Generally these teams that aren’t perennial playoff teams tend to want to keep the momentum going heading into playoffs instead of sandbagging or showing weird looks. This is a brutal stylistic matchup for Brion who tend to give up huge leads early in the game (last place at 10/15/20). Sandbox haven’t been great at engineering gold leads but they do get the ball rolling very quickly in their games through neutral objective snowballing and absorbing gold on the map. They rank second in kill agnostic gold per minute in the league even though the differential isn’t quite as large as other top teams.
I think Sandbox are going to smash in this one. Don’t get cute. The model flagged kill total unders as well. I’m staying away from the Brion first dragon in this contest because it’s priced more appropriately (finally). I’ll be playing the map one angles still.
My Picks:
Moneyline: Sandbox -238 (2.38 units)
Map Spread: Sandbox -1.5 maps @ +122 (1 unit)
—
Map One Angles
Time Total: Map 1 OVER 33:00 @ -104 (1.04 units)
Kill Total (alt): Map 1 UNDER 22.5 @ +109 (1 unit)
LCS Playoffs
Round One – Day One
Evil Geniuses -526 (-1.5 maps @ -227, -2.5 @ +150, +1.5 @ -1429)
vs
Dignitas +392 (+1.5 maps @ +175, +2.5 @ -196, -1.5 @ +708, -2.5 @ +1700)
Map Totals: 3.5 maps (over -167 / under +130), 4.5 maps (over +272 / under -385)
Map Moneyline: EG -294 / DIG +220
Kill Total: 27.5 (over -108 / under -122)
Kill Spread: -7.5 @ -105 / +7.5 @ -123
Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 9.5
Time Total: 32:00 (over -110 / under -119)
Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -378 / +273 (map), -1328 / +781 (series), ~-330 / +300 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)
Model Suggested Play: EG series moneyline, -1.5 maps, and -2.5 maps (strong)
| Trends | |||||||||||
| EG as Favorites | Win/Over | Loss/Under | Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) | DIG as Underdogs | Win/Over | Loss/Under | Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) | ||||
| Matches as Favorites | 11 | 5 | -210 | Matches as Underdogs | 7 | 13 | +158 | ||||
| Against Map Spread | 0 | 0 | Against Map Spread | 0 | 0 | ||||||
| Against Kill Spread | 8 | 8 | 5.4 | Against Kill Spread | 11 | 9 | +6 | ||||
| Kill Totals | 11 | 5 | 26.00 | Kill Totals | 9 | 11 | 25.30 | ||||
| Team Kill Totals | 10 | 6 | 14.81 | Team Kill Totals | 11 | 9 | 10.10 | ||||
| Game Time Totals | 9 | 7 | 31.8 | Game Time Totals | 8 | 12 | 31.80 | ||||
| Dragons over 4.5 | 10 | 6 | Dragons over 4.5 | 6 | 14 | ||||||
| Towers over 11.5 | 12 | 4 | Towers over 11.5 | 9 | 11 | ||||||
| League Rank | EG | Tale of the Tape | DIG | League Rank |
| 1 | 1019.2 | Gold Diff @ 10 min | 38.4 | 5 |
| 1 | 1552.7 | Gold Diff @ 15 min | -43.0 | 7 |
| 1 | 2227.3 | Gold Diff @ 20 min | -1.2 | 7 |
| 43.1 | GPM first 20 min vs Avg | -11.8 | ||
| 1 | 103.5 | Gold Diff / min first 20 | -33.0 | 7 |
| 3 | 145.7 | Gold Diff / min Rest of Game | -108.6 | 8 |
| 1 | 1912.4 | Gold /min (GPM) | 1745.7 | 8 |
| 123.1 | Gold / min vs Avg | -43.6 | ||
| 2 | 145.7 | Gold Diff / min | -56.7 | 7 |
| 1 | 2.1 | Gold Percent Rating (GPR) | -0.8 | 7 |
| 1 | 1705.6 | Kill Agnostic GPM | 1554.4 | 9 |
| 1 | 101.9 | Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min | -61.8 | 8 |
| 6 | 1603.7 | Opp Kill Agnostic GPM | 1616.3 | 5 |
| 2 | 2045.0 | GPM in wins | 1930.1 | 5 |
| 3 | 332.0 | Gold Diff per min in wins | 318.6 | 5 |
| 4 | 1647.2 | GPM in losses | 1598.1 | 8 |
| 2 | -226.9 | Gold Diff per min in losses | -357.0 | 9 |
| 142.1 | Adjusted Gold Diff / min | -60.3 | ||
| 2 | 101.1 | Win-Adjusted GPM | -13.7 | 5 |
| 3 | 26.9 | Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min | 13.6 | 5 |
| 5 | 53.1 | Dragon Control % | 47.4 | 8 |
| 1 | 61.1 | Herald Control % | 50.9 | 5 |
| 2 | 61.9 | Baron Control % | 40.0 | 9 |
| 11.0 | Quality Wins? | 5.0 | ||
| 61.1 | % of wins as Quality | 41.7 |
(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)
Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):
| Series Outcomes | ||
| Wins | Losses | Probability |
| 3 | 0 | 44.155% |
| 3 | 1 | 31.595% |
| 3 | 2 | 15.072% |
| 2 | 3 | 4.721% |
| 1 | 3 | 3.100% |
| 0 | 3 | 1.357% |
| (Series Win): | 90.822% | |
Quantitative Analysis:
| LCS After Summer Season | ||
| Team | Power # | Rank |
| EG | 1.152177713 | 1 |
| C9 | 0.6704368549 | 2 |
| TSM | 0.6277418514 | 3 |
| 100T | 0.5474321448 | 4 |
| TL | 0.4842609973 | 5 |
| GGS | -0.1520019143 | 6 |
| DIG | -0.3757932076 | 7 |
| IMT | -0.6721632656 | 8 |
| CLG | -1.150310167 | 9 |
| FLY | -1.271611619 | 10 |
The model rated Evil Geniuses as the best team in the LCS by a sizeable margin and that was even putting extra weight on more recent performance which was not quite as stellar as the middle of the season. Dignitas had a decent surge to end the season and it’s still making EG significantly greater favorites than the market price.
The proof is in the pudding here folks. Dignitas don’t really have an advantage in any metric and perhaps the most important indicators for consistent success, neutral objective control and kill agnostic gold differential, belong handedly to EG. EG also hold league best numbers in gold differential at 10, 15, and 20 minutes, are the only team in the five majors with a kill agnostic gold per minute over 1700, and are a surprisingly tough out even in their losses. More than 61% of their wins graded as “quality wins” meaning that they exceeded the “average” win across a handful of measures.
This line should be much bigger than it is. And these numbers become even less generous to Dignitas you filter out “bad” teams from the record and just look at how Dignitas fared against the top five.
Conclusion: Book price is way too short, massive edge on market price for EG
Qualitative Analysis:
The Head-to-Head series was 2-1 for Evil Geniuses in the Summer split. The Dignitas win was on Week One, Day One of Summer. There is a large drop off from the “good” teams in the LCS and the not good teams in much the same way that we saw in the LPL and LCK during the Spring seasons.
EG have the edge at every single position individually but more importantly they’re the best side laning strategy team in the LCS, and arguably in the entire West. Dignitas have been relying a lot of cheesy solo queue combinations like Yasuo + Diana and that’s how they’ve picked up a few of their wins at the tail end of the season but they aren’t going to surprise EG here who will be well-prepared for this match.
You do tend to want to give at least some bump towards parity in playoff series where both teams get a chance to prepare for one another but I think EG are a much more difficult team to prepare for because you need to be able to handle a litany of strategies while in this case EG just need to have answers to the linear, “cheesy” strategies Dignitas have been running. We see that those typically don’t last, just ask CLG and how quickly the league adapted to that.
Evil Geniuses can sometimes “look” stupid but they’re a surprisingly disciplined team, always extracting the most out of the map and forcing opponents to decisions early and often. They never try to force a square peg into a round hole compositionally either. They’re quick to adapt in the game and pull the trigger on “ratting” if they don’t feel they will win a straight up 5v5. Their lack of stubbornness is one of their greatest assets.
I don’t see Dignitas getting more than a game in this series in just about any universe unless EG severely underperform AND Dignitas severely overperform. This is, as they say, a Dominique Wilkins windmill slam.
If you’re going to play the dogs here I think the best way to do it would be playing first blood otherwise I’d abstain.
Conclusion: Massive edge all facets of the game for EG.
Derivatives and other markets:
Since Patch 11.13 introduced the tier two tower bonus gold, 45.3% of LCS games have gone OVER 12.5 towers. The average price for that market is around +162 which implies a 38.2% success rate. I’ll be playing tower overs in just about every series in the LCS. Now, the number we’re getting here isn’t quite as good as that so this is one of the few series I’ll be avoiding this wager but keep an eye out moving forward. Not only should the games be more competitive on average, but the patches has pushed things that way and teams are more willing to try out a split push strategy in a best-of-five than in a single game. Macro trends people. If you want to know more on this I’d encourage you to check out some of those articles from a few weeks ago.
My Picks:
Map Spread: Evil Geniuses -1.5 maps @ -227 (6.81 units)
Map Spread: Evil Geniuses -2.5 maps @ +150 (1 unit)
I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.
Check out The Gold Card Podcast and you can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL
(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)
