Friday, August 13th Recap

 

Team WE vs OMG (Net: +4.33 units)

 

Gen.G vs Brion (Net: -2.09 units)

Nongshim vs DRX (Net: -1.58 units)

 

Rogue vs Misfits (Net: -1.72 units)

 

 

LPL Net Total: +4.33 units

LCK Net Total: -3.67 units

LEC Net: Total: -1.72 units

LCS Net Total: pending

 

Daily Net Total: pending

 

 

 


LPL Summer 2021

Playoffs – Upper Bracket – Round Two

 

 

#5 TOP Esports -286 (-1.5 maps @ -133, -2.5 @ +231, +1.5 @ -625)

vs

#8 LNG Esports +226 (+1.5 maps @ +105, +2.5 @ -312, -1.5 @ +406, -2.5 @ +1037)

 

Map Moneyline: TOP -208 / LNG +161

Maps Total: 3.5 maps (over -217 / under +168), 4.5 maps (over +214 / under -286)

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -120 / under -108)

Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -116 / +5.5 @ -112

Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 11.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -115 / under -114)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -224 / +173 (map), -420 / +317 (series), -160 / +193 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play:  TOP Esports series moneyline, -1.5 maps

Starters:

TOP – 369, Karsa, Knight, JackeyLove, Zhuo

LNG – Ale, Tarzan, Icon, Light, Iwandy

Trends
TOP as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) LNG as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 9 6 -867 Matches as Underdogs 5 3 +206
Against Map Spread 6 9 +18 Against Map Spread 8 0 -140
Against Kill Spread 18 18 6.2 Against Kill Spread 17 8 +6
Kill Totals 20 16 26.50 Kill Totals 15 10 24.50
Team Kill Totals 16 20 15.83 Team Kill Totals 18 7 9.88
Game Time Totals 17 19 30.5 Game Time Totals 17 8 30.75
Dragons over 4.5 14 22 Dragons over 4.5 12 13
Towers over 11.5 20 16 Towers over 11.5 13 12

 

 

 

League Rank TOP Tale of the Tape LNG League Rank
1 1969.6 Gold Diff @ 10 min 57.1 8
4 563.1 Gold Diff @ 15 min 424.7 6
1 298.2 Gold Diff @ 20 min 362.5 6
44.4 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -10.4
4 60.9 Gold Diff / min first 20 6.0 12
1 494.3 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 389.3 7
4 1868.5 Gold /min (GPM) 1790.5 9
87.1 Gold / min vs Avg 9.2
3 147.3 Gold Diff / min 50.0 8
3 2.0 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 0.7 8
4 1638.9 Kill Agnostic GPM 1597.5 10
4 84.1 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 10.3 8
3 1994.2 GPM in wins 1938.7 10
1 392.8 Gold Diff per min in wins 326.8 8
3 1675.6 GPM in losses 1592.9 15
2 -229.1 Gold Diff per min in losses -318.9 7
171.5 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 74.3
3 47.0 Win-Adjusted GPM -8.5 10
1 81.1 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 15.1 8
3 58.0 Dragon Control % 44.6 13
1 61.8 Herald Control % 47.4 11
1 66.0 Baron Control % 48.3 10
21.0 Quality Wins? 16.0
91.3 % of wins as Quality 57.1

 

 (These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
3 1 29.443%
3 0 29.083%
3 2 19.872%
2 3 10.121%
1 3 7.638%
0 3 3.843%
(Series Win): 78.397%

 

TOP won the head-to-head 2-1 in week eight.

 

Quantitative Analysis:

In somewhat quiet fashion, TOP Esports actually worked themselves to the top of the model’s ratings by the end of the season thanks to a strong finish. They’re a full standard deviation or more ahead of the league in all but one metric the model measures and are highlighted by a league best gold differential at 20 minutes AND league best gold differential per minute post 20 minutes both of which are far and away the best in the LPL. TOP Esports also rank second in overall objective control only to FunPlus Phoenix and both are a decent cut above EDG who are third before a major drop off to the rest of the league.

In short, tales of TOP’s demise are far overblown, this team is peaking at the right time from a statistics perspective despite some weird factors and dumb mistakes which I’ll talk about more in the next section.

LNG are coming off three of the six best statistical performances of their entire season in their last series. Teams like this are always extremely difficult to evaluate because you have to question whether they’ve figured something out and a switch has flipped or if it was just rolling high on the day and a bit of an outlier. Usually it’s somewhere in the middle. For all intents and purposes, LNG are a very middling team amongst the good teams. They concede objective control which ranks 12th in the league in favor of strong death ball team compositions that scale. I don’t prefer this way of playing but it works for them. More on this in a bit.

From a numbers perspective this is a clear and obvious TOP Esports bet. As you can see in the Tale of the Tape, they rank in the top four in every single category and first in a good number of them. Perhaps the biggest key here is that TOP ESports are the best “post 20” team in the LPL in terms of economy and late game objective control. LNG tend to struggle to apply pressure early and if you spot this TOP team a huge lead like that when their late game is better than yours it could spell trouble.

Conclusion: Huge advantage for TOP looking at adjusted and advanced metrics, moderate advantage on market price by more traditional measures.

 

Qualitative Analysis:

The catch with TOP Esports is that, much like Team WE, they’re just stone cold stupid at times. It’s not quite to the same degree as JDG but it happens enough that it’s frustrating because other than that this team is just outstanding. This as well as the fact that LNG just turned in one of their best performances of the year in their last series (I know Suning also underwhelmed but still) are the only things giving me any sort of hesitation here and I don’t think it’s enough to talk me out of a TOP position.

This is an absolute nightmare stylistic matchup for LNG. TOP are just a better version of them in every way. Better opening sequences, better late game. The teams that give TOP ESports trouble are the ones that jump out to leads on them and, unironically, themselves.

Sometimes when you get two philosophically similar teams like this it can make a series closer than it appears. You could make an argument for Tarzan over Karsa being a big enough gap that this should probably be lined closer together. The rock solid bottom lane of LNG against the mistake prone JackeyLove is another case against TOP. Ale has been playing incredibly well of late despite the teams rough second half. There is enough of a case for LNG that I can see why people might want to back the hot hand if you’re more of a narrative driven handicapper but I’m not.

 

Conclusion: Qualitatively there’s a strong case that this is closer than the number, at least slightly.

 

Derivatives and Other Markets:

TOP League Average LNG
Combined Kills / game 26.709 27.33 25.317
Combined Kills / min 0.856 0.90 0.797
Kills per win 18.739 18.97 17.960
Kills per loss 9.106 8.78 7.063
Deaths per win 8.17 8.74 7.21
Deaths per loss 18.40 18.53 16.24
Average Margin of Victory (AMOV) 11.30 10.09 11.14
Average Margin of Defeat (AMOD) 9.07 10.19 9.24
Combined Avg Kills / game 26.013
Time-Implied Total 26.419
Book Odds Weighted 26.259
Rating Weighted 26.228
Underdog Win Projection 27.066
“Gelati” Total Projection 26.220
Volatility Rating 0.26981 0.2922 0.24260

 

TOP LNG
Average Game Time 31.64 32.32
Avg Game Time (in wins) 32.70 31.79
Avg Game Time (in losses) 32.278 33.025
Combined Avg Game Time 31.980
Book Odds Weighted 32.56
Rating Odds Weighted 32.58
Volatility Rating 0.18718 0.17322 0.22012
% of Games over Time Total 50.00000 51.08696 52.17391

 

This is one of the first series in a bit that have flagged the kill total unders in the LPL. It’s not a large edge on the market price but laying the -128 for the alt 27.5 is something I’m interested in with the way these two play. They’ve also been two of the least volatile teams in terms of projecting their kill totals which actually strengthens the position even if it’s only a moderate edge on market price.

You can take your pick for first dragon or herald as they’re both moderate to large edges on market price. By the numbers first dragon is the strong +EV play but if you look at the past three weeks of play, TOP have shifted to being a much more herald centric team like most of the good teams around the world but this could be a result of their opponents being more dragon focused as well. I’ll be taking first herald but either is fine.

I’ll also be backing the under dragons which was actually the strongest position on the board on the derivatives markets.

Lot of props in this one.

 

My Picks:

Moneyline: TOP ESports -286 (5.72 units)

Map Spread: TOP -1.5 maps @ -132 (1.32 units)

Map Spread: TOP -2.5 maps @ +247 (0.25 units)

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -108 (1.5 units)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -108 (1.5 units)

Prop: Map 3 UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -108 (1.5 units)

Prop: Map 4 UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -108 (1.5 units)

Prop: Map 5 UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -108 (1.5 units)

Prop: Map 1 TOP first herald @ -132 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 TOP first herald @ -132 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 3 TOP first herald @ -132 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 4 TOP first herald @ -132 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 5 TOP first herald @ -132 (1 unit)

Kill Total (alt):  Map 1 UNDER 27.5 kills @ -132 (1 unit)

Kill Total (alt):  Map 2 UNDER 27.5 kills @ -132 (1 unit)

Kill Total (alt):  Map 3 UNDER 27.5 kills @ -132 (1 unit)

Kill Total (alt):  Map 4 UNDER 27.5 kills @ -132 (1 unit)

Kill Total (alt):  Map 5 UNDER 27.5 kills @ -132 (1 unit)

 


LCK Summer 2021

Week Ten – Day Three

 

 

Liiv Sandbox +210 (+1.5 maps @ -145, -1.5 @ +577)

vs

DAMWON Kia Gaming -256 (-1.5 maps @ +113, +1.5 @ -1000)

 

Map Moneyline: LSB +170 / DWG -222

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -123 / under -105)

Kill Spread: +5.5 @ -110 / -5.5 @ -119

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 14.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -132 / under -109) (Pinnacle)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: +145 / -187 (map), +193 / -234 (series), -181 / +140 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play:  none (light on LSB +1.5 maps only)

Trends
DWG as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) LSB as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 10 6 -582 Matches as Underdogs 7 3 +212
Against Map Spread 8 8 -36 Against Map Spread 9 1 -138
Against Kill Spread 18 21 6.6 Against Kill Spread 17 10 +5
Kill Totals 24 15 23.56 Kill Totals 13 14 23.50
Team Kill Totals 24 15 14.50 Team Kill Totals 18 9 9.30
Game Time Totals 23 16 31.4 Game Time Totals 12 15 32.50
Dragons over 4.5 16 23 Dragons over 4.5 12 15
Towers over 11.5 21 18 Towers over 11.5 17 10

 

League Rank DWG Tale of the Tape LSB League Rank
2.0 520.1 Gold Diff @ 10 min 229.6 4.0
1.0 1432.7 Gold Diff @ 15 min 388.8 3.0
1.0 1582.5 Gold Diff @ 20 min 161.3 4.0
29.0 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 11.1
2.0 35.9 Gold Diff / min first 20 4.4 5.0
4.0 122.4 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 39.9 5.0
1.0 1827.6 Gold /min (GPM) 1781.4 5.0
58.8 Gold / min vs Avg 12.7
1.0 122.4 Gold Diff / min 5.1 6.0
1.0 1.7 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 0.0 6.0
2.0 1632.3 Kill Agnostic GPM 1632.2 3.0
1.0 87.6 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 12.7 5.0
1.0 1945.2 GPM in wins 1913.8 6.0
1.0 347.9 Gold Diff per min in wins 255.8 9.0
8.0 1600.7 GPM in losses 1600.2 9.0
6.0 -312.4 Gold Diff per min in losses -338.1 10.0
121.7 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 4.4
1.0 29.8 Win-Adjusted GPM -1.5 6.0
1.0 53.3 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -38.7 9.0
4.0 53.8 Dragon Control % 55.8 2.0
1.0 58.8 Herald Control % 56.5 3.0
1.0 77.6 Baron Control % 53.8 4.0
18.0 Quality Wins? 10.0
66.7 % of wins as Quality 66.7

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 38.707%
2 1 29.251%
1 2 17.765%
0 2 14.277%
(Series Win): 67.958%

 

So just like TOP Esports, DAMWON have quietly but surely been rising up the rankings and are now the clear cut top team in the LCK once again. This matches the eye test as well as they seem to have recaptured some of their swagger again. For a majority of this season this team looked pensive at times and like they were overplaying, particularly the bottom lane, at others but maybe it really was just a bit of an MSI hangover or something. RNG had a similar trajectory in the LPL. The case and point being that DAMWON look like they’re back and while they might not be as dominant as the historic 2020 team, they’re much closer to their Spring 2021 level right now than they’ve been all Summer which is scary for the rest of the LCK as we head into playoffs.

Sandbox have been one of the chippiest underdogs as you can see from the macro trends above. They’re a ridiculous 9-1 against the map spread as underdogs this season. Admittedly this team was severely underrated for a majority of the season but still, impressive performance nonetheless. With that in mind, Sandbox have faced Hanwha, Brion, and KT in their last three and while they’ve won 5 out of those 8 games, they did not look great in their most recent two series against Brion and KT Rolster, two bottom half teams. That’s not what you want going into playoffs. They looked out of character too. Bad look.

This series is actually massive for the standings. The winner will, likely, earn one of the top two seeds so I’d expect both teams to show up prepared here. I don’t want to say this is entirely two teams trending in opposite directions but it sort of is. The model’s numbers already factor in trending performance but DAMWON really have looked like they’re “back” (cue the John Wick comments). I’m going against the model and backing  them here.

Kill total unders were flagged as a strong play by the model which also projects a 23.121 blended kill projection. You could make a case for LSB first tower at such a huge plus number as well but given my DWG position I’ll be sticking to just that as there’s a strong correlation between first tower and wins for favorites in most cases.

 

My Picks:

Moneyline: DAMWON -256 (2.56 units)

Map Spread: DAMWON -1.5 maps @ +113 (0.5 units)

Time Total: Map 1 OVER 32:00 @ -132 (1 unit)

Kill Total (alt): Map 1 UNDER 23.5 @ +118 (1 unit)

Kill Total (alt): Map 2 UNDER 23.5 @ +118 (1 unit)

 


 

KT Rolster +174 (+1.5 maps @ -189, -1.5 @ +440)

vs

Afreeca Freecs -213 (-1.5 maps @ +147, +1.5 @ -714)

 

Map Moneyline: KT +140 / AF -179

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -122 / under -108)

Kill Spread: +4.5 @ -122 / -4.5 @ -108

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 12.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -120 / under -109)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: +202 / -267 (map), +315 / -412 (series), -118 / -107 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play:  Afreeca series moneyline and -1.5 maps (very strong)

Trends
AF as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) KT as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 2 3 -216 Matches as Underdogs 4 7 +229
Against Map Spread 1 4 +109 Against Map Spread 7 4 -137
Against Kill Spread 5 8 4.5 Against Kill Spread 13 14 +5
Kill Totals 6 7 23.30 Kill Totals 11 16 23.77
Team Kill Totals 4 9 13.10 Team Kill Totals 13 14 9.41
Game Time Totals 6 7 33.0 Game Time Totals 11 16 32.45
Dragons over 4.5 8 5 Dragons over 4.5 9 18
Towers over 11.5 6 7 Towers over 11.5 8 19

 

League Rank AF Tale of the Tape KT League Rank
1.0 1082.5 Gold Diff @ 10 min -237.5 9.0
4.0 252.9 Gold Diff @ 15 min -224.0 6.0
3.0 121.7 Gold Diff @ 20 min -679.3 6.0
1.7 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 1.7
3.0 14.8 Gold Diff / min first 20 -16.0 8.0
6.0 -1.4 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -114.2 8.0
7.0 1757.3 Gold /min (GPM) 1766.2 6.0
-11.4 Gold / min vs Avg -2.5
5.0 9.9 Gold Diff / min -24.2 7.0
5.0 0.2 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -0.4 7.0
5.0 1611.9 Kill Agnostic GPM 1599.0 7.0
6.0 2.5 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -21.2 7.0
10.0 1872.1 GPM in wins 1941.6 2.0
7.0 264.7 Gold Diff per min in wins 314.0 4.0
4.0 1625.4 GPM in losses 1613.7 6.0
3.0 -283.0 Gold Diff per min in losses -318.2 9.0
9.3 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -24.9
10.0 -43.3 Win-Adjusted GPM 26.2 2.0
7.0 -29.9 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 19.5 4.0
6.0 51.2 Dragon Control % 47.8 7.0
4.0 54.1 Herald Control % 41.7 9.0
7.0 45.0 Baron Control % 50.0 6.0
10.0 Quality Wins? 14.0
43.5 % of wins as Quality 70.0

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 48.785%
2 1 29.421%
1 2 12.702%
0 2 9.093%
(Series Win): 78.206%

 

Afreeca are a weird team sometimes. There’s not really anything specific about their play that causes them to get into these weird games or situations but I think it’s more a case, at least this season, of being the victim of some spike performances. You can be skeptical but with teams like this if you’re waiting until it feels like a sure thing you’ll end up waiting forever, just fire and what will be will be, you’ll end up winning more often than not over time.

KT picked up the upset win over Sandbox is a truly bizarre series where Sandbox had major leads in the first two games, lost the second, and managed to lose a close third game as well with. Realistically this series should have been a 2-0 so it’s tough to really take much from it other than KT are clearly not mailing it in despite being eliminated from playoffs. The young roster is hungry to prove they’re starter quality for next season and maybe to earn themselves a contract on another team moving forward.

Afreeca aren’t 100% locked into the 6th seed but I think the best case for them right now would be a 2-0 and Gen.G losing their final match 0-2 to jump to 5th so I’m not sure that’s the motivation here as much as just keeping the positive momentum going.

I’m always hesitant to heavily back teams with little on the line here but Afreeca are a significantly better team than KT Rolster and I’ll be backing them here. First herald is a massive edge on market price as well.

 

My Picks:

Moneyline: Afreeca -213 (4.26 units)

Map Spread: Afreeca -1.5 maps @ +147 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 1 Afreeca first herald @ -127 (1.27 units)

Prop: Map 2 Afreeca first herald @ -127 (1.27 units)

 

 


 

LEC Playoffs

Winners’ Bracket – Round One – Day Two

 

 

 

MAD Lions +131 (+1.5 maps @ -169, +2.5 @ -588, -1.5 @ +235, -2.5 @ +855)

vs

G2 Esports -175 (-1.5 maps @ +133, -2.5 @ +381, +1.5 @ -323, +2.5 @ -1250)

 

Map Totals: 3.5 maps (over -278 / under +210), 4.5 maps (over +179 / under -233)

Map Moneyline: MAD +110 / G2 -141

Kill Total: 28.5 (over -114 / under -114)

Kill Spread: +4.5 @ -119 / -4.5 @ -110

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 16.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -111 / under -118)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -126 / -102 (map), -140 / +106 (series), -310 / +233 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play:  MAD Lions series moneyline strongest, but MAD all ways (very strong)

Trends
G2 as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) MAD as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 8 6 -290 Matches as Underdogs 1 2 +47
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 5 9 6.3 Against Kill Spread 1 2 +3
Kill Totals 7 7 27.50 Kill Totals 1 2 27.17
Team Kill Totals 5 9 16.29 Team Kill Totals 0 3 12.17
Game Time Totals 8 6 31.5 Game Time Totals 1 2 32.00
Dragons over 4.5 5 9 Dragons over 4.5 1 2
Towers over 11.5 8 6 Towers over 11.5 2 1

 

 

League Rank G2 Tale of the Tape MAD League Rank
6.0 96.2 Gold Diff @ 10 min 314.4 4.0
5.0 91.4 Gold Diff @ 15 min -162.2 7.0
4.0 253.3 Gold Diff @ 20 min -201.9 3.0
14.5 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 28.1
4.0 19.4 Gold Diff / min first 20 49.2 3.0
5.0 126.7 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 237.7 2.0
3.0 1869.8 Gold /min (GPM) 1847.6 4.0
79.3 Gold / min vs Avg 57.0
2.0 126.7 Gold Diff / min 101.9 4.0
2.0 1.7 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 1.4 4.0
2.0 1652.3 Kill Agnostic GPM 1634.9 4.0
3.0 75.6 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 74.1 4.0
4.0 1968.6 GPM in wins 1904.2 7.0
4.0 300.7 Gold Diff per min in wins 245.6 7.0
5.0 1672.2 GPM in losses 1758.6 1.0
3.0 -221.3 Gold Diff per min in losses -123.9 1.0
126.7 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 101.9
4.0 38.4 Win-Adjusted GPM -26.1 7.0
4.0 12.9 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -42.2 7.0
1.0 64.9 Dragon Control % 53.8 6.0
10.0 29.0 Herald Control % 52.8 5.0
3.0 60.0 Baron Control % 66.7 1.0
9.0 Quality Wins? 4.0
75.0 % of wins as Quality 36.4

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
wins Losses Probability
1 3 20.706%
2 3 19.623%
3 2 17.672%
3 1 16.793%
0 3 14.566%
3 0 10.639%
(Series Win): 45.104%

 

 

 

G2 won the head-to-head 2-0 during the Summer split. It was 1-1 during Spring split, and MAD won the Spring playoff series 3-1.

 

Quantitative Analysis:

By the numbers, these two teams are very evenly matched. The model makes MAD Lions a small favorite primarily because of G2’s lopsided objective control, specifically their abysmal herald rate, skewing their numbers. For all intents and purposes this is close though. G2 have a very unique take on how to play the game that’s more in line with the dedicated scaling and dragon stacking teams like Gen.G. To do this they forgo herald control in exchange for experience and farm gold. I personally think this is a suboptimal way to play the game right now. It’s extremely risky. You can get snowballed on to an extreme extent where the lead becomes irrecoverable but unlike a lot of teams with poor herald control, G2 do often trade across the map in exchange. This is more of a quanlitative breakdown but it’s the most glaring thing in the numbers.

The other thing to point to is that MAD Lions aren’t particularly strong anywhere except baron control and, weirdly enough, economy in losses primarily off the back of the handful of comeback wins they’ve had this season. You can see their startling lack of quality wins somewhat backs up this thesis as well.

The market on this series opened much shorter with G2 roughly -135 favorites. G2 have taken on money. If you were going to bet G2 I think earlier in the week was the time to do it not now. It’s a matter of MAD or not at this point.

Conclusion: Very evenly matched teams by the performance metrics. Model little more bullish on MAD / bearish on G2 than it probably should be but still, close to even.

 

Qualitative Analysis:

This is a very evenly matched contest between two fairly bizarre teams. They’ve played each other very close over the past two years and there’s a bit of a rivalry at this point. G2 have looked like the better team over the course of the final weeks of the season but with a two week break it’s tough to give too much credit to any kind of momentum so you don’t want to overvalue that.

I mentioned it above but I really think herald snowballing is the strongest way to play the game right now. G2 have one of the worst herald control rates in any league but they’re still finding ways to win which is a bit perplexing. We’ve seen MAD Lions absorb pressure and scale for wins they honestly had no business winning, admittedly few of them were just big throws from their opponents but still. I’m not entirely sure G2 want to play that game but I’m not sure I trust them to suddenly flip a switch and change who they are either.

At the same time, I don’t want to keep gravitating to this point alone. G2 have looked mostly solid over the second half of the season and MAD I’ve had a lot more concern about but ultimately these two teams have not had remotely close to the same level of performance as a team like Rogue despite their results being similar.

It’s extremely difficult to tell how these teams are going to approach this series from a strategic standpoint both because they’re just weird and we’ve had the two week break. Both of these teams have flaws and plenty of question marks but they’re also full of experienced players and both tend to elevate performance in clutch situations so this should be a competitive series.

I won’t be making a play on the side in this contest. My “gut” read is G2 but I’m not paying this price for it and I’m very bearish on the MAD Lions team so I don’t exactly want to back them either. If I absolutely had to make a play on a side in this one it’d be the MAD Lions moneyline but I’m passing.

Conclusion: G2 better recent performance but otherwise fairly even.

 

Derivatives and other markets:

G2 League Average MAD
Combined Kills / game 28.698 27.58 31.837
Combined Kills / min 0.853 0.85 0.953
Kills per win 19.667 17.21 19.500
Kills per loss 8.688 10.12 9.563
Deaths per win 10.42 8.95 11.18
Deaths per loss 15.67 18.24 19.17
Average Margin of Victory (AMOV) 9.67 8.76 6.83
Average Margin of Defeat (AMOD) 7.33 8.87 9.83
Combined Avg Kills / game 30.267
Time-Implied Total 29.571
Book Odds Weighted 28.762
Rating Weighted 28.681
Underdog Win Projection 28.188
“Gelati” Total Projection 29.506
Volatility Rating 0.39655 0.3009 0.29964

 

 

G2 MAD
Average Game Time 32.00 33.49
Avg Game Time (in wins) 33.04 32.64
Avg Game Time (in losses) 29.908 34.833
Combined Avg Game Time 32.745
Book Odds Weighted 32.74
Rating Odds Weighted 32.54
Volatility Rating 0.12397 0.15152 0.13714
% of Games over Time Total 55.55556 58.33333 61.11111

 

There’s slim pickings on this one. Strongest edge on the board by the numbers is actually the under 4.5 dragons but I think this series might play out as a handful of absolute slugfest games with neither of these teams having particularly strong early games so I’m not as big a fan of that if I think these are going to go the distance. The time total over is already an advantaged play by the data and I think given the style we’ve seen from these two that we’re very likely to see a much slower series in terms of game time even if the pace of the games is not slow.

Most people are going to point to the kill totals but the line is very high and I’m showing no edge on either side of it. The time total and neutral overs are the better way to play this.

My Picks:

Time Total: Map 1 OVER 32:00 @ -111 (1.11 units)

Time Total: Map 2 OVER 32:00 @ -111 (1.11 units)

Time Total: Map 3 OVER 32:00 @ -111 (1.11 units)

Time Total: Map 4 OVER 32:00 @ -111 (1.11 units)

Time Total: Map 5 OVER 32:00 @ -111 (1.11 units)

Prop: Map 1 OVER 12.5 towers @ +105 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 OVER 12.5 towers @ +110 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 3 OVER 12.5 towers @ +116 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 4 OVER 12.5 towers @ +116 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 5 OVER 12.5 towers @ +116 (1 unit)

 


 

 

LCS Playoffs

Upper Bracket – Round Two

 

 

#2 100 Thieves -114 (-1.5 maps @ +168, -2.5 @ +468, +1.5 @ -238, +2.5 @ -909)

vs

#3 Evil Geniuses -105 (+1.5 maps @ -217, +2.5 @ -769, -1.5 @ +182, -2.5 @ +514)

 

Map Totals: 3.5 maps (over -286 / under +211), 4.5 maps (over +178 / under -233)

Map Moneyline: 100T -127 / EG +100

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -120 / under -108)

Kill Spread: -0.5 @ -112 / +0.5 @ -116

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 13.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -128 / under -101)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: +123 / -157 (map), +169 / -203 (series)

Model Suggested Play:  Evil Geniuses series moneyline, -1.5 maps, -2.5 maps (very strong)

Trends
100T as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) EG as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 15 8 -297 Matches as Underdogs 7 4 +111
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 11 12 6.0 Against Kill Spread 8 3 +4
Kill Totals 10 13 24.50 Kill Totals 5 6 25.59
Team Kill Totals 9 14 14.54 Team Kill Totals 6 5 10.86
Game Time Totals 12 11 31.8 Game Time Totals 5 6 32.18
Dragons over 4.5 11 12 Dragons over 4.5 6 5
Towers over 11.5 14 9 Towers over 11.5 6 5

 

 

League Rank 100T Tale of the Tape EG League Rank
5 -139.0 Gold Diff @ 10 min 927.5 1
3 402.0 Gold Diff @ 15 min 1801.3 2
4 589.9 Gold Diff @ 20 min 1743.3 1
21.5 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 59.5
2 87.4 Gold Diff / min first 20 123.4 1
2 204.7 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 154.9 4
4 1801.1 Gold /min (GPM) 1917.4 1
12.9 Gold / min vs Avg 129.1
2 116.5 Gold Diff / min 154.9 1
2 1.6 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 2.2 1
5 1616.9 Kill Agnostic GPM 1707.0 1
2 76.1 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 102.9 1
10 1540.8 Opp Kill Agnostic GPM 1604.1 7
9 1902.2 GPM in wins 2034.1 2
3 331.6 Gold Diff per min in wins 328.7 4
8 1599.0 GPM in losses 1672.2 2
5 -313.6 Gold Diff per min in losses -210.1 1
117.0 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 155.3
9 -41.1 Win-Adjusted GPM 90.8 2
3 28.5 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 25.6 4
3 56.3 Dragon Control % 52.1 5
4 55.1 Herald Control % 62.9 1
5 50.0 Baron Control % 63.8 2
13.0 Quality Wins? 12.0
72.2 % of wins as Quality 57.1

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
1 3 24.652%
2 3 20.659%
0 3 19.611%
3 2 14.899%
3 1 12.822%
3 0 7.357%
(Series Win): 35.078%

 

 

Evil Geniuses own the head-to-head 3-2

 

Quantitative Analysis:

By the numbers it’s very difficult to make a case for 100 Thieves. Their performance has noticeably declined although it’s difficult to tell how much of that was just post-clinching playoffs, they had a lot of time. Evil Geniuses have been, by far, the best performing team even if their record doesn’t say they’re the best. They have the highest kill agnostic gold per minute across the five major leagues. They don’t have the largest differential but that shows that this team vacuums up gold around the map better than almost anybody so they’re doing a lot of fundamental things correctly even if they have a somewhat unorthodox approach to things at times. 100 Thieves have been more focused on denial of resources. They allow the least kill agnostic gold to their opponents in the LCS and have one of the better numbers world wide. This is an interesting clash of styles.

Generally speaking, Evil Geniuses put themselves in “high floor” situations while 100 Thieves take more risks to take teams out of the game. Both can work, both demand high levels of execution but in different ways. More on this in a bit.

Evil Geniuses are the best team in the LCS and there is a strong edge on the market price here. They should be favored in this contest in the vicinity of around -175 to -225. The more advanced and adjusted performance metrics further support this data as they have sizeable advantages across the board.

Conclusion: Evil Geniuses should be favored in this contest

 

Qualitative Analysis:

These are the two best teams in the LCS but they’re very different.

I mentioned above that this is a battle between a team that seeks to deny resources and one that accrues resources. Typically I prefer the teams that deny in these types of matchups but it’s a much thinner line to tow and if the resource accruing team is exceptional at it then it becomes very difficult to really take them out of a game. You are forced to take them off their game which can prove difficult.

Evil Geniuses are a very unique team to play against because they play side lanes better than anybody in the LCS and maybe in the entire West. They’re also more than capable of playing straight up traditional looks. Their versatility and aggressiveness in the draft makes it challenging to get advantages before the game starts. Preparing for them is honestly a nightmare. There isn’t a clear and obvious plan. It’s part of why I like them to win this season as much as I do besides their play. They’re just a weird team by LCS standards.

100 Thieves have the advantage of having seen a series from EG and the extra week to prepare as well as side selection. That shouldn’t be ignored. While I think these are the clear top two teams in the LCS (maybe Liquid should be in here too, we’ll see), I do think EG have been the better team and that they should be favored here despite the preparation disadvantage. They’re just such a difficult team to prepare for that I’m not sure it makes enough of a difference having the extra week. I’m giving 100T some respect and making a percentage adjustment in their favor for this factor but even still, EG are worth a play here.

Conclusion: Situational advantage to 100T but EG have been the better team by enough that they’re still worth a position here.

 

Derivatives and other markets:

100T League Average EG
Combined Kills / game 23.948 25.17 25.591
Combined Kills / min 0.746 0.78 0.801
Kills per win 16.507 17.51 16.604
Kills per loss 7.09 8.79 9.27
Deaths per win 6.44 8.49 8.86
Deaths per loss 17.78 17.30 18.50
Average Margin of Victory (AMOV) 9.94 9.18 8.48
Average Margin of Defeat (AMOD) 11.22 9.28 8.90
Combined Avg Kills / game 24.769
Time-Implied Total 24.932
Book Odds Weighted 24.7979
Rating Weighted 24.5665
Underdog Win Projection 23.6944
“Gelati” Total Projection 24.7558
Volatility Rating 0.24533 0.29169 0.28645

 

100T EG
Average Game Time 31.85 32.60
Avg Game Time (in wins) 32.13 30.57
Avg Game Time (in losses) 31.30 36.86
Combined Avg Game Time 32.23
Book Odds Weighted 32.82
Rating Odds Weighted 32.43
Volatility Rating 0.14700 0.1678 0.18332
% of Games over Time Total 48.14815 48.26762 48.38710

The model flagged kill total unders as a strong position, time total unders as a light position based on the season long data but when you filter these teams to show their matches against other top teams it’s more or less right on market for the time total but remains advantaged for the kill total unders. I’ll be playing those.

Firsts are all fairly priced, neutrals are fairly priced based on the data. This is more a qualitative handicap but I like the over 12.5 towers quite a bit here. EG are no strangers to side lane and split pushing strategies and given that I think we could get some back-and-forth in these games I like two or three games to go over the tower total and we’re getting at +164.

My Picks:

Moneyline: Evil Geniuses -105 (4.2 units)

Map Spread: Evil Geniuses -1.5 maps @ +182 (1 unit)

Map Spread: Evil Geniuses -2.5 maps @ +514 (0.25 units)

Kill Total (alt): Map 1 UNDER 24.5 @ +110 (1 unit)

Kill Total (alt): Map 2 UNDER 24.5 @ +110 (1 unit)

Kill Total (alt): Map 3 UNDER 24.5 @ +110 (1 unit)

Kill Total (alt): Map 4 UNDER 24.5 @ +110 (1 unit)

Kill Total (alt): Map 5 UNDER 24.5 @ +110 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 1 OVER 12.5 towers @ +164 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 OVER 12.5 towers @ +164 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 3 OVER 12.5 towers @ +164 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 4 OVER 12.5 towers @ +164 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 5 OVER 12.5 towers @ +164 (1 unit)

 

 

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and you can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Leave a Reply