Friday, April 2nd Recap
Suning Gaming vs LNG Esports (Net: -10.405 units)
These sting. This was, by far, my biggest single series loss of the season. Suning are a team that can sometimes look like absolute geniuses with their draft ingenuity and other times they look like they’re getting a little too fancy. Today we got the geniuses. Suning won the draft ridiculously hard in the first two games that we didn’t really get a series here which is unfortunate. In game three they completely disrespected in the draft and LNG had a chance but they were simply too tilted and individually outclassed that it didn’t matter.
LNG were simply unable to put up any kind of fight after the first ten minutes in game one of this series and all of my positions banked on them at least putting up any fight in this series. That was not the case at all. That said, I’d make this wager again in a second. The number we got was completely ridiculous especially considering how this series looked two weeks ago when they played. Sometimes you get wrecked. It happens.
Fnatic vs Schalke 04 (Net: +0.41 units)
It’d be pretty easy to lob “I told you so’s” on this platform and I rarely do but people gave me a lot of flak for saying Fnatic just aren’t a good team. Schalke legitimately played G2 very close in that series, had an excellent game plan, and looked confident and focused. Fnatic haven’t look like much of anything good outside of a few highlight reel victories this season. Their individual talent is also tremendously overrated based on the results we’ve seen this season. There was a reason I stayed away from this series and was pounding the “I’m not buying this Fnatic team” drum all second half.
That said, I don’t think anybody predicted a 3-0 stomping here. A lot of people are pointing to the first two drafts and more or less echoing my thoughts about the Suning/LNG series wishing we actually got a full series out of this. I’ll agree with game one being a bit too fancy and too reliant on Olaf getting ahead. Game two I thought was totally fine and they just didn’t do anything with it. Game three was a much better look and even for both sides.
Drafting is critically important but just like in this morning’s series, I’m not sure it would have made much of a difference with how poorly Fnatic played and how well Schalke played today. Would it have made things easier for Fnatic? Sure, but these were FAR from “unwinnable,” auto-loss kinds of drafts they were just straight up outplayed badly. Fnatic miss top three for the first time since 2016. Not a good start for this iteration of this team. I’d expect at least some improvement in Summer but they really need an in-game leader that will calm them down. They play way too off-the-cuff. Gotta use the old knoggin’ fellas.
Daily Net Total: -9.995 units (-40.8% ROI) (ouch…)
Current Week (March 29th to April 4th): -8.025 units (-11.57% ROI)
LOL Pro League (China)
Spring Playoffs
Round 2 – Day 1
FunPlus Phoenix -270 (-1.5 maps @ -115, -2.5 @ +271, +1.5 @ -667)
vs
RareAtom +205 (+1.5 maps @ -110, +2.5 @ -370, -1.5 @ +422, -2.5 @ +1100)
Map ML Price: FPX -196 / RA +150
Total Maps Played: 3.5 maps (over -263 / under +200), 4.5 maps (over +190 / under -250)
Kill Total: 25.5 (over -116 / under -112)
Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -106 / +5.5 @ -122
Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 10.5
Time Total: 33:00 (over +117 / under -156)
(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)
| FunPlus | Tale of the Tape | RareAtom |
| 1817.5 | Gold Diff @ 10 min | -1205.7 |
| 934.5 | Gold Diff @ 15 min | 32.4 |
| 168.5 | Gold Diff @ 20 min | -179.1 |
| 116.8 | GPM first 20 min vs Avg | 31.6 |
| 131.2 | Gold Diff / min first 20 | 17.9 |
| 748.5 | Gold Diff / min Rest of Game | 309.7 |
| 1960.0 | Gold /min (GPM) | 1823.2 |
| 155.5 | Gold / min vs Avg | 18.7 |
| 208.8 | Gold Diff / min | 61.0 |
| 2.8 | Gold Percent Rating (GPR) | 0.9 |
| 1700.9 | Kill Agnostic GPM | 1648.0 |
| 137.3 | Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min | 57.2 |
| 2079.3 | GPM in wins | 1944.8 |
| 418.4 | Gold Diff per min in wins | 314.6 |
| 1699.6 | GPM in losses | 1652.8 |
| -248.3 | Gold Diff per min in losses | -294.1 |
| 206.9 | Adjusted Gold Diff / min | 59.0 |
| 112.2 | Win-Adjusted GPM | -22.2 |
| 86.8 | Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min | -17.0 |
| 49.7 | Dragon Control % | 48.9 |
| 60.0 | Herald Control % | 45.1 |
| 68.1 | Baron Control % | 56.6 |
| 12.0 | Quality Wins? | 7.0 |
| 50.0 | % of wins as Quality | 33.3 |
(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)
Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):
FunPlus -1.5 maps @ -115 (VERY strong)
FunPlus series moneyline @ -270 (VERY strong)
FunPlus -2.5 maps @ +271 (moderate)
FunPlus map moneyline @ -196 (moderate)
UNDER 3.5 maps @ +200 (moderate)
UNDER 4.5 maps @ -250 (light)
Quantitative Analysis:
FunPlus and TOP Esports are the top two teams in my economy/objective model which is obviously very bullish on FPX here. All of the jungle swapping hasn’t affected FPX’s bottom line:
- 1st in gold per minute
- 1st in GPM in wins
- 2nd in gold differential per minute in wins
- 2nd in gold per minute in losses
- 3rd in gold differential per minute in losses
- 1st in win-adjusted gold per minute
- 2nd in win-adjusted gold differential per minute
- 1st in kill-agnostic gold per minute
- 4th in kill-agnostic gold differential per minute
- 1st in opponent kill-agnostic gold per minute
- Fastest average game time in wins (27.08 minutes)
- 5th in overall objective control percentage
- 1st in post-20 minute gold differential per minute
- 3rd in gold percent rating
(these use a composite blend of trending and season-long performance)
Part of the reason I haven’t been buying the “softening” of FPX is because there’s absolutely no real evidence to support it other than a few game losses. The only real knock on them is that they win so quickly and decisively that they’ve got a little bit of that “Fnatic charade” to their numbers. When you dominate teams as hard as they do it’s going to pump your numbers up massively but I’ve got to say, the fact that they’re doing this through all these jungle changes is pretty indicative to me that the core is strong enough to hang with anyone.
Another critique is that they’re performing worse against better teams so let’s take a look at how they’re doing against the other playoff teams (minus LNG who were clearly a tier below the rest). Below is the results with those “bad” teams filtered out.
| FunPlus | Tale of the Tape | RareAtom |
| 1573.4 | Gold Diff @ 10 min | -1205.7 |
| 593.5 | Gold Diff @ 15 min | 32.4 |
| 50.8 | Gold Diff @ 20 min | -179.1 |
| 90.6 | GPM first 20 min vs Avg | 33.2 |
| 99.2 | Gold Diff / min first 20 | 17.9 |
| 536.0 | Gold Diff / min Rest of Game | 309.7 |
| 1901.0 | Gold /min (GPM) | 1823.2 |
| 100.1 | Gold / min vs Avg | 22.2 |
| 123.7 | Gold Diff / min | 61.0 |
| 1.6 | Gold Percent Rating (GPR) | 0.9 |
| 1674.0 | Kill Agnostic GPM | 1648.0 |
| 78.2 | Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min | 57.2 |
| 2043.0 | GPM in wins | 1944.8 |
| 359.4 | Gold Diff per min in wins | 314.6 |
| 1688.1 | GPM in losses | 1652.8 |
| -229.8 | Gold Diff per min in losses | -294.1 |
| 126.7 | Adjusted Gold Diff / min | 64.0 |
| 78.1 | Win-Adjusted GPM | -20.1 |
| 31.3 | Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min | -13.5 |
| 46.7 | Dragon Control % | 48.9 |
| 57.5 | Herald Control % | 45.1 |
| 60.0 | Baron Control % | 56.6 |
| 5.0 | Quality Wins? | 7.0 |
| 41.7 | % of wins as Quality | 33.3 |
FunPlus end up grading out as the 4th best team in the LPL even if we filter out the “bad” teams that they utterly smash. Notably they still rank #1 in gold per minute in wins, #2 in gold per minute and differential per minute in losses, #1 in win-adjusted gold per minute. So yea I don’t really get what people are talking about.
RareAtom are a resilient team as we’ve seen but I think they’re pretty badly outclassed as a team here. Individually is where they have their advantages but as we’ve seen they sometimes struggle to transition those lane advantages into wins. The most glaring weakness here is the early game disparity between these two.
| Series Outcomes | ||
| Wins | Losses | Probability |
| 3 | 1 | 28.779% |
| 3 | 0 | 27.321% |
| 3 | 2 | 20.209% |
| 2 | 3 | 10.936% |
| 1 | 3 | 8.427% |
| 0 | 3 | 4.329% |
| (Series Win): | 76.309% | |
(FunPlus filtered vs “good” teams series outcome projection)
The model STILL thinks there’s some value on FPX even if we filter to just “good” teams so this position seems like an absolute slam dunk to me.
Conclusion: Even if we filter to FPX vs the good teams there’s still an advantage on this number. This is a massive MASSIVE edge for FPX.
| Series Outcomes | ||
| Wins | Losses | Probability |
| 3 | 0 | 35.007% |
| 3 | 1 | 31.005% |
| 3 | 2 | 18.306% |
| 2 | 3 | 7.668% |
| 1 | 3 | 5.440% |
| 0 | 3 | 2.573% |
| (Series Win): | 84.319% | |
(FunPlus projected series win % via model)
Qualitative Analysis:
As I mentioned above the only real case against FPX here is Tian in his second series back rust? Or that FPX get too cute with some of Doinb’s pocket picks? Maybe RareAtom’s lane prowess actually turns into something? It’s just a really difficult story to tell honestly. RareAtom did win the first meeting between these two 2-1 in week seven in exactly that scaling fashion you’d think. FPX had a 6.4k gold lead and just botched their second baron siege.
Stylistically this is a bit of a nightmare matchup for RareAtom. FPX like to blow games open with strong, early aggression and they like to try to weather the storm and scale up. FPX utterly destroy teams that try to get away with that. They happened to drop one of those in the first series against RareAtom in game three for the loss but generally speaking I’ll take the team that gets ahead almost every time in these circumstances. You’re playing with fire playing from a deficit every game.
RareAtom have some wins against good opponents I don’t want to disrespect them here but FPX have the extra preparation time, film advantage, and frankly RA didn’t look that great against Invictus (neither looked good). I’m all over FPX here.
Conclusion: Stylistic advantage to FPX
Other Markets:
Kill Total Model Projections:
Odds-Weighted: 31.79
Time-Implied: 29.446
Underdog Win: 28.786
“Gelati” Total Projection: 29.829 kills
Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 59.29% (FPX 68.57% / RA 50%)
Volatility Rating: FPX 0.28794 / RA 0.32653 (League Avg: 0.3062)
Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):
(alt) OVER 26.5 @ +101 (strong)
(alt) OVER 24.5 @ -141 (moderate-strong)
OVER 25.5 @ -116 (moderate)
—-
Team Totals:
RareAtom team total OVER 10.5 @ -110 (strong)
FPX team total OVER 14.5 @ -127 (light)
| FunPlus | League Average | RareAtom | |
| Combined Kills / game | 29.530 | 26.19 | 26.191 |
| Combined Kills / min | 1.084 | 0.88 | 0.817 |
| Kills per win | 20.094 | 18.43 | 16.863 |
| Kills per loss | 11.923 | 8.82 | 13.510 |
| Deaths per win | 9.21 | 8.15 | 8.67 |
| Deaths per loss | 19.55 | 18.07 | 18.73 |
| Average Margin of Victory (AMOV) | 9.92 | 9.67 | 7.81 |
| Average Margin of Defeat (AMOD) | 9.64 | 9.75 | 10.40 |
RareAtom have mostly been an under team this season but this feels like a solid over position unless you think FPX completely steamroll this game. I filtered this again for “against the good teams” and the overs were still a great value proposition.
Time Total Projection:
Combined AVG Game Time: 30.976 minutes
Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 31.3 / 31.11
Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 35.04% (FPX 46.08% / RA 47.22%)
Volatility Rating: FPX 0.18738 / RA 0.16696 (League Avg: 0.16133)
Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):
UNDER 33:00 @ -156 (moderate)
| FunPlus | RareAtom | ||
| Average Game Time | 28.94 | 33.02 | |
| Avg Game Time (in wins) | 27.08 | 32.46 | |
| Avg Game Time (in losses) | 32.994 | 33.792 |
The time total was significantly different against the good teams and no longer a value. I’ll be passing.
| FunPlus (vs good teams) | RareAtom | ||
| Average Game Time | 31.32 | 33.02 | |
| Avg Game Time (in wins) | 28.83 | 32.46 | |
| Avg Game Time (in losses) | 35.050 | 33.792 |
Other Derivatives:
Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):
UNDER 12.5 towers @ -270 (strong)
FPX first tower @ -137 (moderate-strong)
OVER 1.5 barons @ +143 (light)
RA first blood @ +100 (light)
UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -101 (light)
** denotes advantage in a category that the opponent is also strong in, must be considered
This stayed similar “against good teams” with the under 12.5 towers barely moving. Only 15% of FPX games went over 12.5 towers against playoff teams. Only 16.67% of RareAtom’s total games go over this total.
My Picks:
Moneyline: FPX -278 (8.34 units)
Map Spread: FPX -1.5 maps @ -116 (2.32 units)
Map Spread: FPX -2.5 maps @ +271 (0.5 units)
Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 26.5 @ +104 (1 unit)
Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 26.5 @ +106 (1 unit)
Kill Total: Map 3 OVER 26.5 @ +105 (1 unit)
Kill Total: Map 4 OVER 26.5 @ +102 (1 unit)
Kill Total: Map 5 OVER 26.5 @ -104 (1.04 units)
Prop: Map 1 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -270 (2.7 units)
Prop: Map 2 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -286 (2.86 units)
Prop: Map 3 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -278 (2.78 units)
Prop: Map 4 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -256 (2.56 units)
Prop: Map 5 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -270 (2.7 units)
LOL Champions Korea (LCK)
Spring Playoffs
Winners’ Bracket Semifinals
DAMWON Kia Gaming -1111 (-1.5 maps @ -345, -2.5 @ +122)
vs
Hanwha Life Esports +618 (+1.5 maps @ +262, +2.5 @ -152, -1.5 @ +1532, -2.5 @ +2400)
Map ML Price: DWG -385 / HLE +271
Total Maps Played: 3.5 maps (over –
Kill Total: 23.5 (over -123 / under -105)
Kill Spread: -7.5 @ -116 / +7.5 @ -111
Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 7.5
Time Total: 32:00 (over -110 / under -118)
(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)
| DWG | Tale of the Tape | HLE |
| 907.1 | Gold Diff @ 10 min | -184.2 |
| 2144.2 | Gold Diff @ 15 min | 83.8 |
| 1856.4 | Gold Diff @ 20 min | -364.1 |
| 54.7 | GPM first 20 min vs Avg | 11.6 |
| 89.2 | Gold Diff / min first 20 | 17.3 |
| 183.1 | Gold Diff / min Rest of Game | 170.3 |
| 1890.7 | Gold /min (GPM) | 1826.4 |
| 106.3 | Gold / min vs Avg | 42.0 |
| 183.1 | Gold Diff / min | 69.6 |
| 2.5 | Gold Percent Rating (GPR) | 1.0 |
| 1682.5 | Kill Agnostic GPM | 1633.9 |
| 119.3 | Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min | 45.9 |
| 1954.5 | GPM in wins | 1959.7 |
| 305.5 | Gold Diff per min in wins | 350.7 |
| 1680.1 | GPM in losses | 1633.8 |
| -220.5 | Gold Diff per min in losses | -336.3 |
| 185.6 | Adjusted Gold Diff / min | 72.1 |
| 23.7 | Win-Adjusted GPM | 28.9 |
| 11.9 | Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min | 57.1 |
| 64.5 | Dragon Control % | 57.8 |
| 64.3 | Herald Control % | 43.0 |
| 73.3 | Baron Control % | 54.1 |
| 12.0 | Quality Wins? | 18.0 |
| 36.4 | % of wins as Quality | 69.2 |
(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)
Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):
HLE +1.5 maps @ +262 (VERY strong)
HLE +2.5 maps @ -152 (strong)
HLE series moneyline @ +618 (strong)
OVER 4.5 maps @ +340 (moderate)
HLE map moneyline @ +271 (moderate)
OVER 3.5 maps @ -156 (moderate)
HLE -1.5 maps @ +1532 (light)
Quantitative Analysis:
| Series Outcomes | ||
| Wins | Losses | Probability |
| 3 | 1 | 28.799% |
| 3 | 0 | 27.371% |
| 3 | 2 | 20.201% |
| 2 | 3 | 10.912% |
| 1 | 3 | 8.403% |
| 0 | 3 | 4.314% |
| (Series Win): | 76.371% | |
(DWG projected series win % via model)
Above is the full, “normal” look at the model’s take on this series.
Let’s filter Hanwha against just the other good teams (T1, DWG, Gen.G)
| DWG | Tale of the Tape | HLE |
| 907.1 | Gold Diff @ 10 min | -321.0 |
| 2144.2 | Gold Diff @ 15 min | -1147.4 |
| 1856.4 | Gold Diff @ 20 min | -944.6 |
| 56.1 | GPM first 20 min vs Avg | -1.1 |
| 89.2 | Gold Diff / min first 20 | -51.0 |
| 183.1 | Gold Diff / min Rest of Game | -483.5 |
| 1890.7 | Gold /min (GPM) | 1720.8 |
| 116.8 | Gold / min vs Avg | -53.0 |
| 183.1 | Gold Diff / min | -194.1 |
| 2.5 | Gold Percent Rating (GPR) | -2.7 |
| 1682.5 | Kill Agnostic GPM | 1560.7 |
| 119.3 | Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min | -131.8 |
| 1954.5 | GPM in wins | 1993.4 |
| 305.5 | Gold Diff per min in wins | 270.1 |
| 1680.1 | GPM in losses | 1621.7 |
| -220.5 | Gold Diff per min in losses | -362.9 |
| 212.0 | Adjusted Gold Diff / min | -165.2 |
| 20.3 | Win-Adjusted GPM | 59.2 |
| 19.9 | Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min | -15.4 |
| 64.5 | Dragon Control % | 46.9 |
| 64.3 | Herald Control % | 48.3 |
| 73.3 | Baron Control % | 23.8 |
| 13.0 | Quality Wins? | 2.0 |
| 39.4 | % of wins as Quality | 50.0 |
| Series Outcomes | ||
| Wins | Losses | Probability |
| 3 | 0 | 68.840% |
| 3 | 1 | 24.169% |
| 3 | 2 | 5.657% |
| 2 | 3 | 0.750% |
| 1 | 3 | 0.425% |
| 0 | 3 | 0.160% |
| (Series Win): | 98.665% | |
(DWG projected series win % via model with HLE vs “elite” teams)
Other than a weirdly high win-adjusted economy rating boosted by a couple of huge wins, HLE have statistically struggled mightily against the “good” teams. Their gold per minute in losses would be 8th, gold differential per minute in losses would be 9th, win-adjusted gold differential would be 7th, and they’d be 9th in kill-agnostic GPM, GDPM, and opponent kill-agnostic GPM. Now, admittedly, if you filtered most teams against just the elite three it’s going to look this way but the reason I’m going through this exercise so consistently for these playoff matches is that it’s critically important to try to measure how competitive Hanwha Life have been against this caliber of team and the answer is… not great. They have a 4-11 record which is actually higher than expectation given these metrics and could indicate some regression.
DAMWON aren’t getting it done in nearly as flashy as a manner as their “best season of all time” form from 2020 Summer but that’s like comparing any all-time great player to Wayne Gretzsky… it’s not fair to compare. They’re still playing ridiculously efficient League of Legends and just their objective control and kill-agnostic gold differential alone is better than a lot of the best teams in the world’s raw GD. What’s scary to me is that DAMWON are essentially playing a completely different looking way but the fundamentals are still there. They’re the best objective control team in the world which hasn’t changed either despite the new approach. I actually think they’ve got some room to grow if they ever decide to start taking a more aggressive line on things too.
Statistically it’s tough to make much of a case for Hanwha who rely way too much on kills.
Conclusion: Strong advantage DWG
Qualitative Analysis:
I mentioned in my recap of HLE’s match against Nongshim that I had major concerns over their lack of willingness to play Tristana and Seraphine (Seraphine has been a full season thing, they haven’t played it a single time) and how those two huge holes are going to leave them in the precarious position of likely never having any kind of draft leverage in this series. That hasn’t changed. DAMWON will absolutely take advantage of this.
Hanwha are going to be behind in every game before they even start in this series. They’re also severely outclassed as a team in every position except for Chovy and ShowMaker is one of the only players in the world that can actually hang with him. Chovy was able to 1v9 solo carry and we saw how tough that was against a BAD Nongshim team. I don’t like his chances against DAMWON. And that’s not to mention the extra preparation time and full five games of film DAMWON have to look at now.
To me, Hanwha are going to have to rat or just create high variance situations to win this series. They’ve taken a game off of DAMWON before and I could see that happening but even on a game-by-game basis it’s tough to see them winning that many much less 3 out of 5 here. This is one of those cases where I actually think DAMWON have a bigger advantage than even their numbers indicate and we saw that above.
Conclusion: Even bigger advantage than the quantitative edge for DAMWON
Other Markets:
Kill Total Model Projections:
Odds-Weighted: 24.457
Time-Implied: 24.984
Underdog Win: 24.559
“Gelati” Total Projection: 24.365 kills
Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 60.86% (DWG 55.81% / HLE 65.91%)
Volatility Rating: DWG 0.31266 / HLE 0.30231 (League Avg: 0.3125)
Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):
(alt) OVER 22.5 @ -149 (VERY strong)
OVER 23.5 @ -123 (moderate-strong)
(alt) OVER 24.5 @ -104 (light)
—-
Team Totals:
HLE team total OVER 7.5 @ -122 (VERY VERY strong)
| DWG | League Average | HLE | |
| Combined Kills / game | 23.725 | 23.62 | 23.554 |
| Combined Kills / min | 0.759 | 0.74 | 0.774 |
| Kills per win | 16.829 | 16.42 | 15.865 |
| Kills per loss | 8.694 | 7.81 | 7.594 |
| Deaths per win | 9.24 | 7.65 | 7.96 |
| Deaths per loss | 18.00 | 16.88 | 18.06 |
| Average Margin of Victory (AMOV) | 7.73 | 9.15 | 9.77 |
| Average Margin of Defeat (AMOD) | 9.30 | 9.14 | 9.56 |
Obviously Hanwha have been a ridiculously bloody team this season overall but when you blend in their trending performance they’re more of an average looking team. Given that I think DWG are going to control this series for the most part I think this number is likely spot on. I’d lean over but DWG are just too clean sometimes for me to reliably like this over even though the model likes it.
Time Total Projection:
Combined AVG Game Time: 32.608 minutes
Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 32.48 / 32.85
Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 51.77% (DWG 55.81% / HLE 47.73%)
Volatility Rating: DWG 0.19731 / HLE 0.11159 (League Avg: 0.15875)
Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):
none
| DWG | HLE | ||
| Average Game Time | 33.32 | 31.89 | |
| Avg Game Time (in wins) | 31.81 | 32.36 | |
| Avg Game Time (in losses) | 38.312 | 31.211 |
As always, HLE’s ridiculously consistent time total performances somehow remain as consistent as ever and make them borderline unbettable for time totals. The good thing is you can rely on their time total for kill projections. Pass.
Other Derivatives:
Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):
HLE first tower @ +143 (VERY strong)**
HLE first herald @ +134 (moderate)**
OVER 1.5 barons @ +171 (moderate)
OVER 4.5 dragons @ +120 (moderate)
HLE first dragon @ +111 (light)**
** denotes advantage in a category that the opponent is also strong in, must be considered
Don’t bet firsts against DAMWON unless the numbers are ridiculous. These aren’t good enough. Tower is nice if you think HLE have a shot in this series. About 47% of games go over 4.5 dragons in the LCK but 55.81% of DAMWON games do. Getting a plus number here is a decent look. 41.86% of DAMWON’s games and 45.45% of HLE’s games go over 1.5 barons as well compared to the league average of 33.7%. The barons is a better value here but the over dragons is more likely to hit. It’s close either way I could see either, I’ll take the dragons, I could see more turns using second baron as bait.
My Picks:
Map Spread: DAMWON -1.5 maps @ -357 (3.57 units)
Map Spread: DAMWON -2.5 maps @ +118 (0.5 units)
Prop: Map 1 OVER 4.5 dragons @ +120 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 2 OVER 4.5 dragons @ +116 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 3 OVER 4.5 dragons @ +110 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 4 OVER 4.5 dragons @ +110 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 5 OVER 4.5 dragons @ +102 (1 unit)
LOL European Championship
Spring Playoffs
Winners’ Bracket Semifinals
G2 Esports -303 (-1.5 maps @ -112, -2.5 @ +260, +1.5 @ -667, +2.5 @ -2000)
vs
MAD Lions +232 (+1.5 maps @ -120, +2.5 @ -357, -1.5 @ +429, -2.5 @ +1000)
Map ML Price: G2 -204 / MAD +156
Total Maps Played: 3.5 maps (over -250 / under +180), 4.5 maps (over +191 / under -250)
Kill Total: 27.5 (over -116 / under -111)
Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -112 / +6.5 @ -115
Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 10.5
Time Total: 34:00 (over +167 / under -222)
(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)
| G2 | Tale of the Tape | MAD |
| -54.9 | Gold Diff @ 10 min | 3.7 |
| 291.5 | Gold Diff @ 15 min | -265.7 |
| -243.5 | Gold Diff @ 20 min | -78.4 |
| 64.1 | GPM first 20 min vs Avg | 79.7 |
| 69.4 | Gold Diff / min first 20 | 48.1 |
| 165.1 | Gold Diff / min Rest of Game | 168.7 |
| 1892.0 | Gold /min (GPM) | 1852.9 |
| 106.8 | Gold / min vs Avg | 67.7 |
| 165.1 | Gold Diff / min | 90.2 |
| 2.3 | Gold Percent Rating (GPR) | 1.3 |
| 1670.2 | Kill Agnostic GPM | 1637.7 |
| 107.0 | Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min | 69.0 |
| 1979.0 | GPM in wins | 1973.5 |
| 336.6 | Gold Diff per min in wins | 359.3 |
| 1645.3 | GPM in losses | 1678.6 |
| -320.7 | Gold Diff per min in losses | -298.5 |
| 173.7 | Adjusted Gold Diff / min | 98.8 |
| 45.8 | Win-Adjusted GPM | 40.2 |
| 40.7 | Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min | 63.3 |
| 64.6 | Dragon Control % | 57.1 |
| 53.5 | Herald Control % | 73.8 |
| 62.9 | Baron Control % | 58.8 |
| 10.0 | Quality Wins? | 10.0 |
| 58.8 | % of wins as Quality | 76.9 |
(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)
Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):
MAD series moneyline @ +232 (VERY strong)
MAD -1.5 maps @ +429 (strong)
MAD +1.5 maps @ -120 (strong)
MAD +2.5 maps @ -357 (moderate)
OVER 3.5 maps @ -250 (light)
OVER 4.5 maps @ +188 (miniscule)
Quantitative Analysis:
Simply put, G2 don’t deserve to be favored by this much based on the numbers. MAD Lions actually compare similarly to them in everything besides kill-agnostic gold measures where G2 remain the kings of Europe. The two are fairly close in the win-adjusted columns and MAD have been “stronger losers” over a small sample as well. MAD have the strongest overall objective control score in the LEC as well mostly from their commanding herald control. Take from that what you will as some think herald is far less important but it allows them to balloon gold leads with great efficiency.
Individually these teams are very close as well in the full season numbers.
Conclusion: Slight advantage to G2 but far from warranting this price tag
| Series Outcomes | ||
| wins | Losses | Probability |
| 3 | 1 | 20.304% |
| 3 | 2 | 19.461% |
| 2 | 3 | 17.910% |
| 1 | 3 | 17.196% |
| 3 | 0 | 14.122% |
| 0 | 3 | 11.007% |
| (Series Win): | 53.886% | |
(G2 projected series win % via model)
Qualitative Analysis:
G2 tend to get the benefit of the doubt in a lot of cases, especially coming off of rough series. This team has a ton of experience and always seems to bounce back well so it’s tough to argue against it. That said, they didn’t look great last week against Schalke. Part of that was the extremely linear game plan they had going into the series. I’m not sure if they just had a bad week of practice or poor preparation or just straight up disrespected Schalke (don’t listen to everything you hear) but this was a very unimaginative gameplan which is out of character for Grabbz and this team. I’d expect them to have some more looks this time around.
MAD legitimately looked incredible against Rogue. Kaiser was in peak form and went absolutely ballistic in carrying MAD to a series win. To me this entire series hinges on the bottom lane. I’m still not generally a huge fan of how Kaiser and Carzzy have operated this season with their high risk, limited reward approach to the game but they legitimately played their best games of the split last week. Have they turned a corner or was that a flash in the pan? That’s ultimately the question here.
The reason I say this hinges so much on the bottom lane is because when the MAD bottom lane “flips heads” as I like to call it, they absolutely steamroll almost every game they play no matter the opponent. When they don’t it’s an absolute dumpster fire unless the opposing team feeds them back into it. Rekkles and Mikyx are just too stable for me to think this is a reliable way for MAD to win games but I’m also open to the idea that they’re just in good form right now. The top trio I actually think is fairly even based on how these players have performed this season which I never thought I’d say.
Full disclosure: At the bottom of my post from Tuesday I mentioned getting down early on MAD Lions at +364 which is where I’m at. I’ll likely be taking some profits (not all) on that but as always, for the purposes of this writeup and my public record I assume you have no prior positions.
I actually still think MAD are a value at this price. I’d expect G2 to be in better form than they were last week and maybe MAD take a slight step back but even if you bake in some regression both ways into this number there’s still a lot of value on MAD even at this reduced price. For you G2 bulls out there this price has dropped nearly 150 cents from open but ask yourself if you really want to pay this much before getting down on it.
MAD is the play here even at the current price. As I mentioned even if you bake in some regression opposite ways for each team this is still a big value and I think there’s a reasonable chance that MAD are just feelin’ it right now and take this series down. Last week wasn’t all a Schalke fluke folks, G2 didn’t look that great relative to expectations. Obviously they’re still a great team but just consider the form you’ve seen recently.
Conclusion: Value on MAD is still just too good to pass up on even at the current price which is much declined from open.
Other Markets:
Kill Total Model Projections:
Odds-Weighted: 29.402
Time-Implied: 30.197
Underdog Win: 28.471
“Gelati” Total Projection: 29.921 kills
Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 55.53% (G2 56.52% / MAD 54.545%)
Volatility Rating: G2 0.31050 / MAD 0.30607 (League Avg: 0.3133)
Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):
(alt) OVER 26.5 @ -143 (moderate-light)
OVER 27.5 @ -116 (light)
—-
Team Totals:
MAD team total OVER 10.5 @ -111 (VERY strong)
| G2 | League Average | MAD | |
| Combined Kills / game | 29.894 | 28.57 | 30.767 |
| Combined Kills / min | 0.860 | 0.86 | 0.952 |
| Kills per win | 19.119 | 17.99 | 20.284 |
| Kills per loss | 8.188 | 9.91 | 10.819 |
| Deaths per win | 11.18 | 8.80 | 9.46 |
| Deaths per loss | 17.67 | 18.64 | 21.11 |
| Average Margin of Victory (AMOV) | 9.00 | 9.41 | 10.23 |
| Average Margin of Defeat (AMOD) | 9.50 | 9.54 | 11.22 |
If I didn’t already have MAD exposure I’d take the team total over. They VERY frequently get to this even in losses as I mentioned last week.
For the full game total this is fairly high but the model still likes overs and projects overs. Even in a 31 minute game your average total between these two is going to look something like 26.66 combined kills. If you think these are going to be lopsided stomps you could look silly here but I think more than likely we’ll get overs in what’s likely to be a slugfest of a series. I’ll be passing here though, this number and price are about right.
Time Total Projection:
Combined AVG Game Time: 33.325 minutes
Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 33.48 / 33.47
Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 37.55% (G2 47.83% / MAD 27.27%)
Volatility Rating: G2 0.17140 / MAD 0.11856 (League Avg: 0.15060)
Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):
none
| G2 | MAD | ||
| Average Game Time | 34.43 | 32.22 | |
| Avg Game Time (in wins) | 34.22 | 31.80 | |
| Avg Game Time (in losses) | 35.056 | 32.815 |
Prices like this are meant to discourage action because they’re not sure how it’s going to play out. Don’t give the free money without any sort of edge. I don’t really see one given the pricing.
Other Derivatives:
Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):
MAD first herald @ -112 (VERY strong)**
MAD first tower @ +116 (VERY strong)**
UNDER 4.5 dragons @ +111 (strong)
MAD first blood @ -116 (strong)
OVER 12.5 towers @ +115 (moderate-strong)
G2 first herald @ -118 (light)**
** denotes advantage in a category that the opponent is also strong in, must be considered
Lots of opportunities here. My favorites are the over 12.5 towers and MAD first herald.
My Picks:
Map Spread: MAD +1.5 maps @ -120 (2.4 units)
Moneyline: MAD +236 (1 unit)
Map Spread: MAD -1.5 maps @ +437 (0.5 units)
Map Spread: MAD -2.5 maps @ +1000 (0.25 units)
Prop: Map 1 OVER 12.5 towers @ +112 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 2 OVER 12.5 towers @ +114 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 3 OVER 12.5 towers @ +113 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 4 OVER 12.5 towers @ +107 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 5 OVER 12.5 towers @ +105 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 1 MAD first herald @ -112 (1.12 units)
Prop: Map 2 MAD first herald @ -109 (1.09 units)
Prop: Map 3 MAD first herald @ -109 (1.09 units)
Prop: Map 4 MAD first herald @ -109 (1.09 units)
Prop: Map 5 MAD first herald @ -109 (1.09 units)
LOL Championship Series
Spring Mid-Season Showdown Playoffs
Winners’ Bracket Semifinals
Cloud 9 -112 (-1.5 maps @ +182, -2.5 @ +495, +1.5 @ -263, +2.5 @ -1000)
vs
Team Liquid -112 (+1.5 maps @ -250, +2.5 @ -833, -1.5 @ +198, -2.5 @ +555)
Map ML Price: C9 -118 / TL -108
Total Maps Played: 3.5 maps (over -333 / under +242), 4.5 maps (over +159 / under -200)
Kill Total: 24.5 (over -122 / under -105)
Kill Spread: -1.5 @ -111 / +1.5 @ -116
Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 11.5
Time Total: 35:00 (over +143 / under -189)
(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)
| C9 | Tale of the Tape | TL |
| 309.7 | Gold Diff @ 10 min | 653.2 |
| 824.2 | Gold Diff @ 15 min | 1898.7 |
| 777.5 | Gold Diff @ 20 min | 2145.1 |
| 64.1 | GPM first 20 min vs Avg | 77.0 |
| 84.8 | Gold Diff / min first 20 | 142.1 |
| 531.8 | Gold Diff / min Rest of Game | 356.1 |
| 1901.1 | Gold /min (GPM) | 1864.5 |
| 131.1 | Gold / min vs Avg | 94.5 |
| 208.7 | Gold Diff / min | 189.0 |
| 2.9 | Gold Percent Rating (GPR) | 2.7 |
| 1675.6 | Kill Agnostic GPM | 1668.5 |
| 125.0 | Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min | 120.0 |
| 1973.6 | GPM in wins | 1962.8 |
| 365.8 | Gold Diff per min in wins | 377.3 |
| 1669.1 | GPM in losses | 1654.0 |
| -293.9 | Gold Diff per min in losses | -214.7 |
| 219.6 | Adjusted Gold Diff / min | 199.8 |
| 56.3 | Win-Adjusted GPM | 45.5 |
| 77.2 | Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min | 88.8 |
| 55.9 | Dragon Control % | 62.2 |
| 60.0 | Herald Control % | 73.8 |
| 63.0 | Baron Control % | 60.0 |
| 7.0 | Quality Wins? | 11.0 |
| 43.8 | % of wins as Quality | 73.3 |
(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)
Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):
UNDER 3.5 maps @ +242 (light)
Quantitative Analysis:
These two teams are very close they just operate differently. Below are their advanced economy measures:
(C9 left / TL right)
- Gold per minute in wins: 1st / 2nd
- Gold Differential per minute in wins: 2nd / 1st
- Gold per minute in losses: 2nd / 3rd
- Gold Differential per minute in losses: 5th / 1st
- Win-adjusted gold per minute: 1st / 2nd
- Win-adjusted gold differential per minute: 2nd / 1st
- Kill-agnostic gold per minute: 1st / 2nd
- Kill-agnostic gold differential per minute: 2nd / 1st
- Opponent kill-agnostic gold per minute: 1st / 2nd
I don’t think it’s any kind of revelation to say that these are the two best teams in the LCS. The model gives a very slight edge to Liquid but not more than the market price (and vig).
Conclusion: Very slight edge to TL but not enough to warrant a position
| Series Outcomes | ||
| Wins | Losses | Probability |
| 1 | 3 | 19.469% |
| 2 | 3 | 19.096% |
| 3 | 2 | 18.377% |
| 3 | 1 | 18.031% |
| 0 | 3 | 13.233% |
| 3 | 0 | 11.794% |
| (Series Win): | 48.202% | |
(C9 projected series win % via model)
Qualitative Analysis:
This is a tale of two styles. Cloud 9 win through Perkz and Blaber taking over games. Liquid wins through whatever the best course of action is. Liquid are more versatile not in the champion pools they play but in their overall proficiency across a number of different strategies. They can play through all three lanes, they can scale well, they can play uptempo, and for the most part all of their players can play whatever the metagame asks them to with the exception of Jensen who hasn’t really had to play much else besides control mages although we know he’s capable of other things.
To me, Cloud 9 are an easier puzzle to solve. You keep Perkz and Blaber neutralized and get your outer lanes in neutral or winning matchups. Obviously it’s easier said than done to contain the dynamic duo but Cloud 9 have generally looked fairly toothless when this happens and haven’t shown a lot of big picture diversity in approach.
Liquid’s outer lanes are significantly better than Cloud 9’s and the ability to play through either one of them through a variety of picks and compositions is part of why I think Liquid are the clear best team in the LCS. They just have more outs, more versatility, are harder to prepare for, and their coaching staff have shown an ability to make adjustments by utilizing this expansive toolbox of champions and concepts.
Liquid are the better overall team by a decent margin to me. They make fewer mistakes, rely less on outplays, and enact repeatable, consistent systems of play that make their floor extremely high. I also think they’ve got better players overall. Perkz is obviously a dynamo and the combination with Blaber is how Cloud 9 win a majority of their games but Santorin and Jensen aren’t enough worse that I can say Perkz/Blaber will reliably run them over.
Better players overall, more strategies, more paths to victory, and a fairly linear opponent. I’ll be backing Team Liquid.
Note: Cloud 9 do have side selection for map one which could prove to be a noteworthy advantage.
Conclusion: Liquid advantage overall
Other Markets:
Kill Total Model Projections:
Odds-Weighted: 26.26
Time-Implied: 24.19
Underdog Win: 27.22
“Gelati” Total Projection: 25.128 kills
Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 39.61% (C9 42.86% / TL 36.36%)
Volatility Rating: C9 0.33960 / TL 0.26481 (League Avg: 0.28464)
Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):
UNDER 24.5 @ -105 (strong)
(alt) UNDER 25.5 @ -125 (moderate)
(alt) UNDER 23.5 @ +112 (moderate-light)
—-
Team Totals:
C9 team total OVER 12.5 @ -115 (strong)
TL team total OVER 11.5 @ -112 (strong)
| Cloud 9 | League Average | Liquid | |
| Combined Kills / game | 23.649 | 25.83 | 26.151 |
| Combined Kills / min | 0.732 | 0.76 | 0.776 |
| Kills per win | 16.000 | 16.98 | 17.648 |
| Kills per loss | 9.58 | 9.34 | 9.33 |
| Deaths per win | 7.06 | 8.59 | 7.13 |
| Deaths per loss | 21.00 | 17.21 | 15.00 |
| Average Margin of Victory (AMOV) | 10.50 | 8.39 | 9.60 |
| Average Margin of Defeat (AMOD) | 11.40 | 8.64 | 6.14 |
I do like the under suggestion here but overs have been absolutely killing it in the LCS playoffs so far (7-4). Cloud 9 games are a little too volatile for me to back this though. Pass, lean under.
Time Total Projection:
Combined AVG Game Time: 32.07 minutes
Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 32.68 / 32.69
Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 23.16% (C9 19.05% / TL 27.27%)
Volatility Rating: C9 0.14094 / TL 0.15241 (League Avg: 0.1745)
Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):
UNDER 35:00 (VERY strong)
| Cloud 9 | Liquid | ||
| Average Game Time | 31.43 | 32.71 | |
| Avg Game Time (in wins) | 30.68 | 32.03 | |
| Avg Game Time (in losses) | 33.86 | 34.19 |
This is another case where the book doesn’t want you to bet this with a weird number and weird pricing but 35 minutes is THE HIGHEST TOTAL I’ve seen this entire year and neither of these teams really suggest that we should have this kind of total here. This is the book simply averaging the two games these two played together (40 and 30) which is just not a sharp way to go about setting this number honestly. Slam dunk under. Games can be close and competitive and not this long. This number is ridiculous.
Other Derivatives:
Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):
UNDER 1.5 barons @ -175 (moderate)
Liquid first dragon @ -139 (moderate)
UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -130 (light)
** denotes advantage in a category that the opponent is also strong in, must be considered
There was a lot of overlap on the firsts here so I just excluded them. Liquid have utterly dominated the objective game this season but Cloud 9 are no slouches either. I’m just passing on these. The under dragons is just a worse way to play the under 35:00 so I’m passing altogether here.
My Picks:
Moneyline: Team Liquid -112 (3.36 units)
Map Spread: Liquid -1.5 maps @ +198 (1 unit)
Map Spread: Liquid -2.5 maps @ +555 (0.5 units)
Time Total: Map 1 UNDER 35:00 @ -189 (1.89 units)
Time Total: Map 2 UNDER 35:00 @ -200 (2 units)
Time Total: Map 3 UNDER 35:00 @ -200 (2 units)
Time Total: Map 4 UNDER 35:00 @ -189 (1.89 units)
Time Total: Map 5 UNDER 35:00 @ -189 (1.89 units)
I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.
Check out The Gold Card Podcast and can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL
(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)
