Thursday, April 8th Recap

 

EDward Gaming vs TOP Esports (Net: +2.08 units)

EDG played and outstanding series in this one but sometimes to get “dominant” 3-0’s like this it takes two to tango. TOP showed very poorly in this series and to me had more to do with how lopsided this was than how well EDG played.

Game one opened off fast and furious but Scout was the beneficiary of and early triple kill as the result of an errant dive by TOP in the bottom lane. This was just disrespecting Ryze level six and a teleport disadvantage. Flandre actually didn’t even need to TP but this could have been way WAY worse for TOP. Poor decision. TOP did continue punching to stay in this but with Olaf + Twisted Fate they basically had to constantly keep the action up in this and with as fed as Scout was on Ryze it was going to be really tough to win a lot of these skirmishes. Eventually EDG closed this out.

Game two felt like it was well within TOP’s ability to win but the fact that 369 opted into going full AP Gragas ended up costing them more than it benefitted them. AP Gragas isn’t as bad as people think and TOP did have other tools for engaging like Rell and Hecarim but you had two strong carries and very limited dive potential from EDG’s composition, you could have just front lined for them. Either way TOP had a lot of really bizarre calls in this game and looked very disjointed on multiple occasions.  Even retreating from fights didn’t look on the same page.

Game three should have been a win for TOP. They had an incredible scaling composition, Nocturne got very little done early, and TOP picked up two of the first four dragons. This game was all but over but all it took was JackeyLove getting picked off by the Nocturne+Hecarim Bronzodia dive and EDG picked up some momentum, won the next fight for the sixth dragon and baron.

We saw in this series why Jinx isn’t just this “free roll” scaling champion. It doesn’t matter how much DPS you can do if you can never do it because you’re either running or dead or blinded or CC’d or whatever.

Not to making excuses for them or anything but TOP were not good in this match whatsoever and it was mostly their own fault. Bad setups, bad macro decision making, poor team fighting, and the decision on the AP Gragas in game two was a little weird to me. Rough start snowballed into a series that got away from TOP quickly. I’m confident that they’ll be better in their next match. With that in mind, EDG were excellent and seemed to have all the answers for every situation. I don’t want to take anything away from how well EDG played, Scout and Meiko in particular.

 

Daily Net Total: +2.08 units

 

Current Week (April 5th-11th):  +22.8775 units (+24.77% ROI)

 

Last Week (March 29th to April 4th):  +30.69 units (+14.26% ROI)

 


LOL Champions Korea (LCK)

Spring 2021 – Grand Finals

 

 

#1 DAMWON Kia Gaming -355 (-1.5 maps @ -138, -2.5 @ +252, +1.5 @ -826)

vs

#2 Gen.G +274 (+1.5 maps @ +114, +2.5 @ -323, -1.5 @ +566, -2.5 @ +1500)

 

 

Map ML Price: DWG -217 / Gen.G +175

Total Maps Played: 3.5 maps (over -278 / under +199), 4.5 maps (over +195 / under -271)

Kill Total: 21.5 (over -116 / under -111)

Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -111 / +5.5 @ -118

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 8.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -103 / -125)

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

DWG Tale of the Tape GEG
277.0 Gold Diff @ 10 min 117.7
993.5 Gold Diff @ 15 min 282.3
1654.8 Gold Diff @ 20 min 197.5
50.9 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 27.1
81.4 Gold Diff / min first 20 52.4
189.1 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 371.0
1888.3 Gold /min (GPM) 1857.2
108.4 Gold / min vs Avg 77.3
189.1 Gold Diff / min 153.7
2.6 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 2.2
1681.2 Kill Agnostic GPM 1685.0
123.4 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 108.6
1946.2 GPM in wins 1942.7
302.9 Gold Diff per min in wins 333.2
1680.1 GPM in losses 1674.8
-220.5 Gold Diff per min in losses -229.4
194.9 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 159.4
18.9 Win-Adjusted GPM 15.4
12.1 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 42.4
64.4 Dragon Control % 55.5
62.2 Herald Control % 66.3
75.0 Baron Control % 71.9
14.0 Quality Wins? 18.0
38.9 % of wins as Quality 56.3

 

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

Gen.G series moneyline @ +274 (VERY strong)

Gen.G +1.5 maps @ +114 (VERY strong)

Gen.G -1.5 maps @ +566 (strong)

Gen.G map moneyline @ +175 (strong)

Gen.G +2.5 maps @ -323 (moderate-strong)

Gen.G -2.5 maps @ +1500 (light)

OVER 4.5 maps @ +195 (light)

OVER 3.5 maps @ -278 (miniscule)

 

Quantitative Analysis:

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
3 1 21.644%
3 2 19.963%
2 3 17.086%
1 3 15.855%
3 0 15.644%
0 3 9.808%
(Series Win): 57.251%

(DWG projected series win % via model)

 

 

 * DWG Left / GenG Right

 

  • Gold per minute in wins: 4th / 5th
  • Gold Differential per minute in wins: 5th / 3rd
  • Gold per minute in losses: 1st / 2nd
  • Gold Differential per minute in losses: 1st / 2nd
  • Win-adjusted gold per minute: 4th / 5th
  • Win-adjusted gold differential per minute: 5th / 3rd
  • Kill-agnostic gold per minute: 2nd / 1st
  • Kill-agnostic gold differential per minute: 1st / 2nd
  • Opponent kill-agnostic gold per minute: 1st / 2nd
  • Overall Objective Control: 1st / 2nd
  • Overall Team Rating: 1st / 2nd
  • Regular season series was split DWG won first 2-1, Gen.G the second 2-1 (Flawless played in the first series for Gen.G)

 

 

For all intents and purposes these teams are very evenly matched. DAMWON have the edge in overall objective control mostly because it’s been ridiculous this season but Gen.G are the only team remotely close to them. From an economy standpoint they’re very even with DAMWON owning earlier games and Gen.G having a stronger post-20 economy (this is primarily because they “turn the corner more quickly” and close faster).

 

The two are neck-and-neck in the kill-agnostic and win-adjusted measures. Gen.G are significantly more definitive winners, DAMWON are slightly “tougher” losers.

 

If we isolate both of these teams against just the top four teams (HLE, T1, Gen.G, DWG) the model makes this slightly closer then the full season projection. Gen.G actually perform better against the good teams in the league than their full season numbers.

 

DWG Tale of the Tape GEG
-859.5 Gold Diff @ 10 min 24.3
-817.7 Gold Diff @ 15 min -319.3
-1269.4 Gold Diff @ 20 min -659.6
2.1 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -18.3
-18.9 Gold Diff / min first 20 -23.1
100.9 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 176.5
1842.3 Gold /min (GPM) 1788.2
73.9 Gold / min vs Avg 19.7
100.9 Gold Diff / min 45.9
1.4 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 0.7
1654.3 Kill Agnostic GPM 1645.4
58.8 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 48.3
1925.4 GPM in wins 1878.9
257.0 Gold Diff per min in wins 272.4
1648.3 GPM in losses 1663.5
-263.3 Gold Diff per min in losses -265.5
126.3 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 71.3
6.6 Win-Adjusted GPM -40.0
-23.1 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -7.7
62.0 Dragon Control % 52.3
51.3 Herald Control % 45.7
74.1 Baron Control % 56.5
5.0 Quality Wins? 5.0
35.7 % of wins as Quality 45.5

 

(Tale of the Tape both teams filtered vs top four only)

 

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
3 1 20.365%
3 2 19.486%
2 3 17.874%
1 3 17.134%
3 0 14.189%
0 3 10.950%
(Series Win): 54.041%

 

(DWG series win % filtered to both teams vs top four)

 

The model strongly suggests backing Gen.G here because the statistical performance doesn’t justify DAMWON being this large of a favorite.

Conclusion: Very slight edge DAMWON, market price way overinflated on DWG.

 

Qualitative Analysis:

People are acting like it’s a foregone conclusion that DAMWON are winning this series and I just have no idea what other people are watching. Are DAMWON one of the best teams in the world? Yes. So are Gen.G. DAMWON should win this series make no mistake but this line is just too rich. The Gen.G “choke” narrative is the only real case against them to me.

Conclusion: DWG deserving favorites but not by this much.

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Combined AVG kills per game: 21.546

Odds-Weighted: 21.507

Time-Implied: 21.825

Underdog Win: 22.569

“Gelati” Total Projection: 21.688 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 56.01% (DWG 65.22% / GEG 46.81%)

Volatility Rating:  DWG 0.31446 / GEG 0.33335 (League Avg: 0.3139)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

(alt) OVER 22.5 @ +103 (moderate-strong)

(alt) OVER 20.5 @ -145 (moderate)

OVER 21.5 @ -116 (light)

—-

Team Totals:

Gen.G team total OVER 8.5 @ -116 (VERY strong)

DWG team total OVER 12.5 @ -125 (moderate)

 

DWG League Average GenG
Combined Kills / game 23.719 23.47 19.372
Combined Kills / min 0.749 0.72 0.581
Kills per win 15.642 16.35 13.875
Kills per loss 8.694 7.80 5.300
Deaths per win 9.08 7.68 6.59
Deaths per loss 18.00 16.72 15.40
Average Margin of Victory (AMOV) 7.64 9.05 8.91
Average Margin of Defeat (AMOD) 9.30 9.01 9.80

These two teams averaged 19.17 combined kills per game (0.574 per minute) in their six games against each other this season which is significantly below their season long and composite measures.

When you filter these two against just the good teams they score much lower (see below).

 

DWG GenG
Combined Kills / game 23.169 18.997
Combined Kills / min 0.723 0.579
Kills per win 15.478 13.375
Kills per loss 7.563 5.750
Deaths per win 8.79 6.09
Deaths per loss 16.50 17.13
Average Margin of Victory (AMOV) 7.36 7.91
Average Margin of Defeat (AMOD) 9.00 11.13

My intuition is that this should probably be an over contest but both of these teams are just so clean that it’s tough to imagine a complete bloodbath happening in any of these games. With great closing speed there’s a strong chance that we just get 3-5 very lopsided contests once the first domino falls. Pass.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 32.834 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 33.25 / 33.62

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 47.36% (DWG 52.17% / GEG 42.55%)

Volatility Rating: DWG 0.19189 / GEG 0.15091 (League Avg: 016197)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none

 

DWG GenG
Average Game Time 33.24 32.43
Avg Game Time (in wins) 31.83 32.43
Avg Game Time (in losses) 38.312 32.419

Right on market for me. Not really a lot of value post filter either (see below)

 

DWG GenG
Average Game Time 33.06 33.29
Avg Game Time (in wins) 31.28 34.42
Avg Game Time (in losses) 37.208 31.727

 

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

GEG first tower @ +113 (VERY strong)**

GEG first blood @ -112 (strong)

Gen.G first dragon @ -126 (strong)*

OVER 1.5 barons @ +155 (light)

** denotes advantage in a category that the opponent is also strong in, must be considered

 

When I apply the filter to the objectives markets Gen.G are still very strong in dragon, tower, and blood firsts but first dragon is by far the strongest. DAMWON are only a 35% first blood and 35% first dragon against the other top four teams. They’re also only 40% first tower. Gen.G’s numbers?

DWG GEG
35 63.16
40 52.63
35 73.68
50.00 52.63

Realistically all of the Gen.G firsts are good wagers here besides herald but you do need to pay a price so I’d suggest sticking to just one. In this case I like the Gen.G first blood the most. It’s volatile but DAMWON and Gen.G both actually tend to adapt to their opponents tendencies so it’s tough to get a read on which will be the proactive once regarding which objectives during this series.

 

A quick note on my futures portfolio and this game:

I have Gen.G +500 to win the split for 3 units. A hedge on this position would not be very lucrative. I’d be wagering 10.65 to win 3 to completely bail entirely from the position and leave the +4.35 unit win on a Gen.G win on the table. The full “optimal” hedge (or dutch) would be a 14.04 unit hedge to “lock” in a +0.96 unit profit.

Normally my philosophy is to take profits (just do an optimal hedge) but in this case I think DAMWON are being heavily overpriced so I’m just going to let this one ride and look for chances within the series if Gen.G go up a game or something along those lines.

I won’t be betting a side in this game pre-flop but would bet Gen.G if I had no futures positions.

 

My Picks:

 

If I had no futures exposure (will not be counted on tracking sheet):

Map Spread: Gen.G +1.5 maps @ +113 (2 units)

Moneyline: Gen.G +272 (1 unit)

Map Spread: Gen.G -1.5 maps @ +560 (0.5 units)

Map Spread: Gen.G -2.5 maps @ +1500 (0.25 units)

—-

Regardless of futures exposure (will be counted on tracking sheet):

Prop: Map 1 Gen.G first blood @ -112 (1.12 units)

Prop: Map 2 Gen.G first blood @ -110 (1.10 units)

Prop: Map 3 Gen.G first blood @ -108 (1.08 units)

Prop: Map 4 Gen.G first blood @ -110 (1.10 units)

Prop: Map 5 Gen.G first blood @ -110 (1.10 units)

 


LOL Pro League (LPL)

Spring Playoffs

Losers Bracket Finals

 

 

Royal  Never Give Up +115 (+1.5 map @ -182, +2.5 @ -625, -1.5 @ +236, -2.5 @ +715)

vs

TOP Esports -145 (-1.5 maps @ +140, -2.5 @ +406, +1.5 @ -312, +2.5 @ -1429)

 

 

Map ML Price: RNG +114 / TOP -145

Total Maps Played: 3.5 maps (over -312 / under +228), 4.5 maps (over +168 / under -217)

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -118 / under -110)

Kill Spread: +2.5 @ -115 / -2.5 @ -112

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 12.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -113 / under -117)

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

TOP Tale of the Tape Royal Never GU
2736.8 Gold Diff @ 10 min 210.1
1694.7 Gold Diff @ 15 min 1097.0
373.3 Gold Diff @ 20 min 719.0
123.6 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 6.0
193.0 Gold Diff / min first 20 71.5
496.2 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 573.3
1934.9 Gold /min (GPM) 1908.4
135.9 Gold / min vs Avg 109.3
251.2 Gold Diff / min 207.1
3.5 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 2.8
1678.3 Kill Agnostic GPM 1681.7
145.9 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 125.6
2023.1 GPM in wins 1985.4
436.0 Gold Diff per min in wins 349.2
1710.4 GPM in losses 1629.3
-219.1 Gold Diff per min in losses -308.0
257.7 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 213.6
58.2 Win-Adjusted GPM 20.4
106.3 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 19.5
56.7 Dragon Control % 59.7
64.9 Herald Control % 48.6
69.2 Baron Control % 76.4
18.0 Quality Wins? 21.0
64.3 % of wins as Quality 72.4

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none

 

Quantitative Analysis:

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
3 1 22.215%
3 2 20.143%
2 3 16.707%
3 0 16.333%
1 3 15.282%
0 3 9.319%
(Series Win): 58.691%

(TOP projected series win % via model)

 

 

 * TOP Left / RNG Right

 

  • Gold per minute in wins: 2nd / 4th
  • Gold Differential per minute in wins: 1st / 7th
  • Gold per minute in losses: 1st / 10th
  • Gold Differential per minute in losses: 1st / 8th
  • Win-adjusted gold per minute: 2nd / 4th
  • Win-adjusted gold differential per minute: 1st / 7th
  • Kill-agnostic gold per minute: 3rd / 2nd
  • Kill-agnostic gold differential per minute: 1st / 2nd
  • Opponent kill-agnostic gold per minute: 1st / 2nd
  • Overall Objective Control: 1st / 2nd
  • Overall Team Rating: 1st / 2nd
  • Regular season series went 2-0 to RNG, first game was close, second game big throw from TOP.

Similar story to the other day. TOP and FPX are statistically the best teams in the league so they’re almost always going to have the advantage when you look at things quantitatively.

Let’s take a look at how this looks using the “only vs top nine” filter we’ve been using this playoffs:

 

TOP Tale of the Tape Royal Never GU
2357.1 Gold Diff @ 10 min -512.6
1113.2 Gold Diff @ 15 min 145.7
176.3 Gold Diff @ 20 min -125.1
77.1 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -64.2
133.2 Gold Diff / min first 20 20.7
301.3 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 542.3
1866.6 Gold /min (GPM) 1871.5
73.8 Gold / min vs Avg 78.6
133.4 Gold Diff / min 144.5
1.9 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 1.9
1648.4 Kill Agnostic GPM 1650.0
87.8 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 71.6
1978.2 GPM in wins 1964.3
380.9 Gold Diff per min in wins 301.5
1705.4 GPM in losses 1611.5
-224.1 Gold Diff per min in losses -295.1
150.6 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 161.6
17.2 Win-Adjusted GPM 3.3
57.3 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -22.1
55.8 Dragon Control % 56.8
68.2 Herald Control % 47.4
63.3 Baron Control % 78.1
6.0 Quality Wins? 9.0
46.2 % of wins as Quality 64.3

 

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
3 1 22.569%
3 2 20.245%
3 0 16.774%
2 3 16.464%
1 3 14.926%
0 3 9.022%
(Series Win): 59.588%

(TOP projected series win % via model with both filtered to only “vs top nine”)

 

 

 * TOP Left / RNG Right

 

  • Gold per minute in wins: 4th / 8th
  • Gold Differential per minute in wins: 4th / 11th
  • Gold per minute in losses: 1st / 14th
  • Gold Differential per minute in losses: 1st / 7th
  • Win-adjusted gold per minute: 4th / 8th
  • Win-adjusted gold differential per minute: 4th / 11th
  • Kill-agnostic gold per minute: 5th / 3rd
  • Kill-agnostic gold differential per minute: 1st / 7th
  • Opponent kill-agnostic gold per minute: 3rd / 5th
  • Overall Objective Control: 2nd / 1st
  • Overall Team Rating: 1st / 3rd
  • Overall Record: TOP 13-12 / RNG 14-8

RNG have the better overall record but as you can see trail in a lot of the metrics still. Part of this is a stylistic consideration. RNG aren’t the dominant early game team which means their differentials are never going to really wow on paper but TOP have a clear edge in the numbers besides objective control where they’re still very close to RNG.

 

Conclusion: Edge TOP Esports, especially against top nine teams

 

Qualitative Analysis:

This handicap is very similar to RNG vs FPX and TOP vs EDG not just because of the teams involved but from a stylistic, rock-paper-scissors perspective. RNG and EDG are scaling teams by design and intent while TOP and FPX index more into early games and snowballing leads. All four of these teams are exceptional at what they do but as many of you know, I’ll almost always side with the early game team unless they have massive problems in the mid and late game. Neither FPX or TOP really do. To me, the best way to beat RNG (and EDG) is to go underneath of them.

I don’t normally put too much stock into one series but FPX really laid out a VERY strong game plan for how to attack RNG. They made the game about bottom lane. They forced the issue and isolated the top lane 1v1. As good as Xiaohu has been this season a large part of his success has been that RNG have devoted a ton of resources to him. In more isolated 1v1 situations against elite top laners (and Biubiu) he has struggled. His picks are either more bizarre, niche picks that probably struggle from a deficit by nature, or he’s heavily relied on Gnar who is easily abused in certain 1v1 matchups.

The reason I’m pointing this matchup out is that while 369 isn’t Nuguri, he’s really not that far off but more importantly than that, he’s exactly the kind of player that will completely slam dunk a counter matchup or a 1v1 situation like this. I’m not entirely sure RNG are going to be able to reinvent themselves on the fly in just a couple of days. FunPlus laid a great blueprint for other teams against RNG right now and I think that blueprint is something TOP will look to enact. It’s also not that far off from what TOP might want to do which is get JackeyLove going.

I think the numbers favor TOP, the individual players favor TOP, and stylistically I think TOP have the edge even if I think RNG are a smarter team. FPX also just showed the world how to abuse this if you’ve got the players to do so and TOP absolutely do.

That said, TOP have had some suspect decision making and have had a few wins in these playoffs that were off the back of some baron and dragon steals which is never something you want to rely on. The thing is, I actually think TOP have been performing in the bottom half of their range of outcomes and they’re still here. They were bad against EDG and bad for the first half of the series against Suning and still won one of those.

The market is just about right for this “by the numbers” but I do think TOP are the better team. I’ll mention it down near the picks that I have futures positions on RNG and EDG and I’ll explain how I’m playing this there. If I had no position I’d play TOP Esports here.

 

Conclusion: Edge TOP

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Combined AVG kills per game: 28.144

Odds-Weighted: 28.958

Time-Implied: 28.556

Underdog Win: 30.08

“Gelati” Total Projection: 28.56 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 43.92% (TOP 50% / RNG 37.84%)

Volatility Rating:  TOP 0.32294 / RNG 0.28817 (League Avg: 0.3112)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge:

(alt) UNDER 25.5 @ +109 (moderate)

UNDER 26.5 @ -110 (moderate)

(alt) UNDER 27.5 @ -133 (light)

—-

Team Totals:

RNG team total OVER 12.5 @ -114 (VERY strong)*

TOP team total OVER 14.5 @ -105 (VERY strong)*

* heavily based on frequency, don’t follow this

TOP League Average RNG
Combined Kills / game 29.289 25.88 26.998
Combined Kills / min 0.975 0.87 0.856
Kills per win 18.946 18.03 17.955
Kills per loss 12.125 8.75 9.125
Deaths per win 7.11 8.16 8.31
Deaths per loss 20.45 17.95 18.38
Average Margin of Victory (AMOV) 11.61 9.58 9.79
Average Margin of Defeat (AMOD) 8.45 9.62 9.13

If you filter this to just against the top nine teams it’s not all that different. I’d lean over but the model seems to like the under here. I’ll just be passing.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 31.198 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 30.75 / 30.75

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 35.04% (TOP 21.43% / RNG 48.65%)

Volatility Rating: TOP 0.16178 / RNG 0.16602 (League Avg: 0.16257)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

UNDER 32:00 @ -118 (VERY strong)

TOP RNG
Average Game Time 30.31 32.08
Avg Game Time (in wins) 30.09 32.32
Avg Game Time (in losses) 29.444 31.202

I like this under for a few reasons. First, I like TOP to win this and they win in dominant, quick fashion when they do (most of the time). Second, TOP lose very quickly as well regardless of the level of opponent. They throw haymakers and when they miss it often backfires. Third, RNG win rather quickly for your archetypical dragon scaling team.

Not quite as bullish as the model but this will be an under play.

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OVER 1.5 barons @ +138 (moderate)

UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -113 (light)

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -263 (light)

** denotes advantage in a category that the opponent is also strong in, must be considered

Both of these teams are exceptional in the “firsts” so I didn’t list them all as I don’t think any of them really show much value besides RNG first herald @ +129 but TOP are hitting first herald at a 61.5% rate so I’ll be passing there.

The over 1.5 barons isn’t a bad look if you think these games are going to go the distance. I do not so I’ll be passing on all of these. Under 4.5 drakes isn’t bad though.

 

A quick note on my futures exposure:

I’ve got an outright on RNG to win Spring at +3300 for 1 unit. I’ve got EDG at +2500 for 1 unit as well but more on that tomorrow.

Normally I take profits in situations like this, in other words I take the optimal hedge when provided unless I think a number is drastically wrong. Part of the reason I play futures in the first place is to give myself leverage in situations exactly like this. It allows me to exercise my edge.

The tricky part about this situation is that I think TOP and FPX are going to be your finalists so it makes some sense to take a partial position to hedge this here because there is the potential that we’re sitting pretty with a win-win situation in the finals if either one or both of RNG or EDG make it there. Let’s go through a few scenarios:

  1. “Let it all ride” – I’d make no decisions based on my futures positions and just let them play out. If RNG or EDG make the finals I’m sitting pretty with a sizeable “guaranteed” profit.
  2. Take some profits now – I could place light to moderate wagers against EDG and RNG to cover my futures exposure and then some. Something like wager to win 5 units each. However EDG still have a loss in hand so we’d really only need to take this position on RNG here. Something like TOP -145 for 7.25 units to win 5 units (-1 for my futures position). This would allow me to take a 4 unit profit on a TOP win and “take some profits” from my futures position.
  3. Cover my futures exposure only through TOP here.
  4. I could wait until next round to see how this transpires. In Scenario 2 the “worst” case scenario is RNG win and then lose in the next round in which case I’d be down 8.25 total units on the situation.

 

TOP win + FPX win = TOP vs EDG losers’ final, hedge out on EDG

TOP win + EDG win = guaranteed profit

RNG win + EDG win = guaranteed profit (best case)

RNG win + FPX win = guaranteed profit because RNG or EDG make finals

 

So the question becomes is the TOP vs EDG price going to be better or worse than this price for a hedge position. TOP were -217 to EDG yesterday. I’d imagine we get a cheaper version (maybe -160) which is worse than this but there’s a chance we don’t.

 

All told I think the best decision in terms of futures for this situation is to just wait since I’ll have an opportunity to effectively cover all of my futures exposure in the next round. Even in the “worst case” scenario which is a TOP win and FPX win I can just bet TOP against EDG next round, cover all of my pre-season outrights (and then some) and if EDG win I’m sitting pretty in finals with yet another opportunity at it.

 

 

My Picks:

 

If I had no futures exposure (will not be counted on tracking sheet):

Moneyline: TOP -145 (2.9 units)

Map Spread: TOP -1.5 maps @ +140 (1 unit)

Map Spread: TOP -2.5 maps @ +406 (0.5 units)

 

Regardless of futures exposure (will be counted on tracking sheet):

Time Total: Map 1 UNDER 32:00 @ -118 (0.59 units)

Time Total: Map 2 UNDER 32:00 @ -118 (0.59 units)

Time Total: Map 3 UNDER 32:00 @ -118 (0.59 units)

Time Total: Map 4 UNDER 32:00 @ -118 (0.59 units)

Time Total: Map 5 UNDER 32:00 @ -118 (0.59 units)

 


LOL European Championship (LEC)

Spring Playoffs

Losers’ Bracket Finals

 

 

G2 Esports -189 (-1.5 maps @ +114, -2.5 @ +348, +1.5 @ -476, +2.5 @ -2500)

vs

Rogue +152 (+1.5 maps @ -154, +2.5 maps @ -500, -1.5 @ +328, -2.5 @ +876)

 

Map ML Price: G2 -152 / ROG +118

Total Maps Played: 3.5 maps (over -303 / under +224), 4.5 maps (over +173 / under -227)

Kill Total: 27.5 (over -105 / under -122)

Kill Spread: -3.5 @ -112 / +3.5 @ -115

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 12.5

Time Total: 35:00 (over +188 / under -256)

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

G2 Tale of the Tape ROG
-263.3 Gold Diff @ 10 min 702.7
-188.9 Gold Diff @ 15 min 1457.2
-609.1 Gold Diff @ 20 min 1531.5
55.4 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 80.1
44.4 Gold Diff / min first 20 123.0
112.7 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 231.3
1865.2 Gold /min (GPM) 1858.1
84.4 Gold / min vs Avg 77.3
112.7 Gold Diff / min 146.2
1.6 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 2.1
1649.6 Kill Agnostic GPM 1655.2
73.4 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 88.7
1979.0 GPM in wins 1943.5
337.4 Gold Diff per min in wins 341.9
1637.6 GPM in losses 1665.9
-336.7 Gold Diff per min in losses -294.0
128.0 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 161.5
45.3 Win-Adjusted GPM 9.8
40.5 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 44.9
62.1 Dragon Control % 54.3
49.0 Herald Control % 45.7
54.8 Baron Control % 50.0
11.0 Quality Wins? 7.0
61.1 % of wins as Quality 87.5

 

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

Rogue across the board (VERY VERY Strong)

 

Quantitative Analysis:

Series Outcomes
wins Losses Probability
1 3 24.688%
2 3 20.663%
0 3 19.664%
3 2 14.870%
3 1 12.786%
3 0 7.329%
(Series Win): 34.985%

(G2 projected series win % via model)

 

 

 * G2 Left / Rogue Right

 

  • Gold per minute in wins: 3rd / 6th
  • Gold Differential per minute in wins: 4th / 3rd
  • Gold per minute in losses: 7th / 4th
  • Gold Differential per minute in losses: 7th / 4th
  • Win-adjusted gold per minute: 3rd / 6th
  • Win-adjusted gold differential per minute: 4th / 3rd
  • Kill-agnostic gold per minute: 2nd / 1st
  • Kill-agnostic gold differential per minute: 3rd / 2nd
  • Opponent kill-agnostic gold per minute: 3rd / 1st
  • Overall Objective Control: 2nd / 5th
  • Overall Team Rating: 3rd / 2nd
  • Regular season series went 2-0 to G2. They dominated the second game, first was a 50 minute slugfest.

The model loves Rogue even despite their weaker overall objective control compared to G2. They do pretty much everything better from a statistical perspective.

Conclusion: Huge advantage Rogue

 

Qualitative Analysis:

I’m not nearly as bearish on G2 as the model is but I do think this series is closer than people think just based on the historical results between these two.

Rogue have never beaten G2 and that’s going to be the main narrative for a lot of people coming into this series. There is something to be said for mental hurdles. Rogue play very differently against G2 for whatever reason, possibly confidence, and that shouldn’t be ignored but I also think that eventually you learn your lesson and for this team I think it’s that they can’t play afraid of this team anymore. Take the fight to them. You’ve got plenty of time to prepare for this match.

I tend to think these narratives are way WAY over exaggerated. If you are a more narrative driven evaluator then feel free to pound G2 here. Wunder has actually been grinding a ton of solo queue, “Rogue never beat G2,” etc. I’m going to be on Rogue. G2 are still a very good team but they’ve shown a lot of holes in draft this playoffs and they haven’t had the strongest of early games either. Both of these teams lost to MAD Lions but I’m not holding that against either of them.

Rogue have been more consistent, generate more organic advantages, make fewer mistakes, and perhaps most importantly, have made far fewer draft errors on this patch. They’re also a significantly better early game team and snowball their leads more cleanly overall. Rogue hold the edge in gold differential per minute raw, kill-agnostic, win-adjusted, and overall adjusted.  For all intents and purposes Rogue are a better team, they simply don’t have the name brand value and benefit of the doubt that G2 do and that’s why this price is the way it is.

To me you can’t bet G2 here unless you’re straight up narrative/gut handicapping. If you are then power to you. They simply don’t deserve to even be short favorites like this unless there’s a specific matchup you want to point to. All of the evidence points to Rogue except for the track record. If you want to pass on Rogue I can understand that but I’ll be backing them.

 

Conclusion: via narrative? Advantage G2, via film and gameplay? slight edge Rogue

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Combined AVG kills per game: 28.917

Odds-Weighted: 28.7

Time-Implied: 28.897

Underdog Win: 27.042

“Gelati” Total Projection: 28.693 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 50.78% (G2 59.26% / ROG 42.31%)

Volatility Rating:  G2 0.29586 / ROG 0.32880 (League Avg: 0.3145)

Suggested Model Plays in order of strength of edge:

none

—-

Team Totals:

Rogue team total OVER 12.5 @ -105 (strong)*

G2 team total OVER 14.5 @ -105 (moderate)*

* heavily frequency based

 

G2 League Average Rogue
Combined Kills / game 31.385 28.34 26.450
Combined Kills / min 0.917 0.86 0.781
Kills per win 19.243 18.10 16.882
Kills per loss 10.160 10.16 10.719
Deaths per win 10.89 8.84 7.61
Deaths per loss 19.56 18.70 19.38
Average Margin of Victory (AMOV) 9.22 9.50 9.78
Average Margin of Defeat (AMOD) 10.11 9.59 9.00

I won’t be making a play on the kill totals in this series as I think the market is just about right.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 34.032 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 34.51 / 34.33

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 35.9% (G2 33.33% / ROG 38.46%)

Volatility Rating: G2 0.16715 / ROG 0.17461 (League Avg: 0.15173)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OVER 35:00 @ +188 (very light)

 

G2 Rogue
Average Game Time 34.34 33.73
Avg Game Time (in wins) 34.04 32.71
Avg Game Time (in losses) 34.933 36.006

This is priced like they don’t want you to bet on it. The under is the look here but I’ll be passing.

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

ROG first dragon @ -125 (VERY VERY strong)**

ROG first tower @ -118 (VERY strong)**

ROG first blood @ -112 (moderate)

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -122 (moderate-light)

G2 first dragon @ -108 (moderate-light)**

G2 first tower @ -112 (light)*

UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -101 (light)

OVER 1.5 barons @ +142 (light)

** denotes advantage in a category that the opponent is also strong in, must be considered

Rogue first blood is intriguing as is the under 4.5 dragons as an alternative way to play the game time under if you’re into that. I’ll be taking Rogue first blood.

 

My Picks:

 

Map Spread: ROG +1.5 maps @ -154 (3.08 units)

Moneyline: ROG +152 (1 unit)

Map Spread: ROG -1.5 maps @ +328 (0.5 units)

Map Spread: ROG -2.5 maps @ +876 (0.25 units)

Prop: Map 1 ROG first blood @ -112 (1.12 units)

Prop: Map 2 ROG first blood @ -111 (1.11 units)

Prop: Map 3 ROG first blood @ -112 (1.12 units)

Prop: Map 4 ROG first blood @ -112 (1.12 units)

Prop: Map 5 ROG first blood @ -114 (1.14 units)

 


LOL Championship Series (LCS)

Spring Mid-Season Showdown Playoffs

Losers’ Bracket Finals

 

 

Team Liquid -172 (-1.5 maps @ +130, -2.5 @ +390, +1.5 @ -382, +2.5 @ -1313)

vs

Team Solo Mid +141 (+1.5 maps @ -159, +2.5 @ -530, -1.5 @ +293, -2.5 @ +822)

 

Map ML Price: TL -145 / TSM +120

Total Maps Played: 3.5 maps (over -325 / under +228), 4.5 maps (over +166 / under -227)

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -118 / under -112)

Kill Spread: -4.5 @ -113 / +4.5 @ -117

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 11.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -108 / under -122)

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

TL Tale of the Tape TSM
291.5 Gold Diff @ 10 min -607.1
872.2 Gold Diff @ 15 min -111.7
572.1 Gold Diff @ 20 min 88.0
65.9 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -4.1
119.0 Gold Diff / min first 20 -5.9
290.2 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 220.3
1840.1 Gold /min (GPM) 1816.8
74.4 Gold / min vs Avg 51.1
145.0 Gold Diff / min 78.2
2.1 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 1.1
1656.4 Kill Agnostic GPM 1640.1
93.4 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 60.9
1962.8 GPM in wins 1914.4
385.5 Gold Diff per min in wins 284.5
1643.8 GPM in losses 1648.1
-239.9 Gold Diff per min in losses -278.0
164.3 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 97.6
45.6 Win-Adjusted GPM -2.8
97.6 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -3.5
57.4 Dragon Control % 45.1
68.0 Herald Control % 59.6
55.9 Baron Control % 76.7
13.0 Quality Wins? 7.0
81.3 % of wins as Quality 36.8

 

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

Liquid -1.5 maps @ +130 (moderate)

Liquid series moneyline @ -172 (moderate)

Liquid +1.5 maps @ -382 (light)

Liquid map moneyline @ -145 (light)

UNDER 3.5 maps @ +228 (light)

 

 

NOTE:

Armao (formerly Grig) is starting for Liquid over Santorin who is unfortunately suffering from migraines. Santorin hasn’t been officially ruled out for this series but it’s looking like he won’t be playing.  I’ll discuss more on this in the qualitative section but just keep it in mind.

 

Quantitative Analysis:

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
3 1 25.134%
3 2 20.706%
3 0 20.340%
2 3 14.502%
1 3 12.330%
0 3 6.988%
(Series Win): 66.180%

 

(TL projected series win % via model)

 

 

 * TL Left / TSM Right

 

  • Gold per minute in wins: 2nd / 3rd
  • Gold Differential per minute in wins: 1st / 6th
  • Gold per minute in losses: 3rd / 2nd
  • Gold Differential per minute in losses: 1st / 4th
  • Win-adjusted gold per minute: 2nd / 3rd
  • Win-adjusted gold differential per minute: 1st / 6th
  • Kill-agnostic gold per minute: 2nd / 3rd
  • Kill-agnostic gold differential per minute: 2nd / 4th
  • Opponent kill-agnostic gold per minute: 2nd / 3rd
  • Overall Objective Control: 1st / 4th
  • Overall Team Rating: 2nd / 4th
  • Regular season series was won 2-0 by TSM. One close, one not close.

Liquid are far and away a better statistical team and it’s not particularly close when you look at the kill-agnostic, win-adjusted, and full adjusted economy metrics as well as quality wins and overall objective control. In raw metrics this is closer than it looks.

I do think Liquid are the better team here and their laners are good enough as seen by the laning portion of the individual player model that being down their jungler might not be as big a deal as it initially appears.

Regarding price, the model makes Liquid a larger favorite than the market price by a moderate margin. Value on Liquid by the numbers.

Conclusion: Advantage Liquid

 

Qualitative Analysis:

So the obvious question here is how much of an impact losing your jungler will have. As we saw with Liquid last year it didn’t always matter who was playing jungle because the lanes just dominated. I think we could see a very similar story here. That said, whether he’s completely versed in the game plan and what not in just a day or two of practice with the team is concerning. Armao is a jungler that performs well when you play around him as a carry, he’s a lot like a worse version of Meteor from BiliBili. When you put resources into him on champions like Olaf or Graves and the like he can take over a game but he’s far from well-rounded and efficient.

This is a chance at redemption for Grig who had a very rough Proving Grounds run with Liquid Academy going 0-4. He also lost his last two games in Academy. However, he’s no stranger to the LCS stage or playoffs and does have some experience playing with this Liquid roster and played some games with them at the LCS Lock-In tournament so he’s not a complete stranger.

I think people are going to severely overreact to this substitution. It’s never great to have an emergency substitution like this but he’s practice with them for at least a couple scrim blocks now and as far as subs go it could be worse. As I mentioned earlier I think Liquid have significantly stronger outer lanes and that the mid lane is roughly a wash (although Jensen has better laning numbers). If Liquid can just win 2 out of 3 lanes every game I have a hard time seeing Armao really be a huge liability in this series. If Liquid’s lanes are losing they’re not enacting their game plan to begin with.

I still like Liquid in this series and given the shift in price I’m actually going to back them in this spot. This continues to drop. Even as I’ve been writing this the number has moved as low as -156 in places. I’ll use this price but I’d buy when you see this bottom out. I made Liquid more than a -300 favorite in this series before this news and I’m only slightly shifting this downward from there. This is a massive overreaction.

Conclusion: Advantage Liquid, muted by substitution but still there

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Combined AVG kills per game: 23.766

Odds-Weighted: 25.7285

Time-Implied: 23.96

Underdog Win: 23.3184

“Gelati” Total Projection: 24.52 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 38.72% (TL 30.77% / TSM 46.67%)

Volatility Rating:  TL 0.27190 / TSM 0.23317 (League Avg: 0.28026)

Suggested Model Plays in order of strength of edge:

UNDER 25.5 @ -111 (strong)

(alt) UNDER 26.5 @ -128 (strong)

(alt) UNDER 24.5 @ +105 (moderate-strong)

—-

Team Totals:

TL League Average TSM
Combined Kills / game 22.238 25.23 25.294
Combined Kills / min 0.700 0.75 0.751
Kills per win 17.063 17.02 15.618
Kills per loss 7.70 9.12 10.52
Deaths per win 6.81 8.44 8.16
Deaths per loss 14.80 17.21 19.09
Average Margin of Victory (AMOV) 9.63 8.57 7.58
Average Margin of Defeat (AMOD) 6.90 8.84 10.18

 

Strong lanes mean lower kill games and Liquid prefer to choke people out. I love the under here. Liquid are going to make this game about laning and even if they don’t their game plan will morph into playing around lane priority and jungle tempo which also results in more skirmishes rather than full on team fights.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 33.03 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 32.52 / 32.49

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 44.23% (TL 38.46% / TSM 50%)

Volatility Rating: TL 0.15446 / TSM 0.14964 (League Avg: 0.1725)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

UNDER 33:00 @ -122 (very light)

TL TSM
Average Game Time 32.22 33.83
Avg Game Time (in wins) 31.53 33.44
Avg Game Time (in losses) 33.32 32.20

I’d lean to the under but I think this price is solid. Pass.

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

TL first herald @ -116 (VERY strong)**

TL first tower @ -163 (VERY strong)**

TSM first tower @ +122 (VERY strong)**

TL first dragon @ -130 (moderate)

TSM first herald @ -116 (light)**

TL first blood @ -125 (light)

OVER 1.5 barons @ +142 (light)

UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -103 (light)

** denotes advantage in a category that the opponent is also strong in, must be considered

With Armao in the mix I’m not entirely sure how Liquid will change their game plan. I’d imagine this becomes about lane kingdom but there’s a few different ways they can play this out. I’ll be passing here maybe some after game one after I see what they’re trying to do.

 

 

My Picks:

 

Moneyline: Liquid -172 (3.44 units)

Map Spread: Liquid -1.5 maps @ +130 (1 unit)

Map Spread: Liquid -2.5 maps @ +390 (0.25 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 UNDER 25.5 @ -111 (1.11 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 UNDER 25.5 @ -105 (1.05 units)

Kill Total: Map 3 UNDER 25.5 @ -114 (1.14 units)

Kill Total: Map 4 UNDER 25.5 @ -116 (1.16 units)

Kill Total: Map 5 UNDER 25.5 @ -116 (1.16 units)

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

 

 

 

 

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