Sunday, May 16th Recap
Cloud 9 vs Pentanet.GG (Net: +2.0 units)
Other than first blood Pentanet really had nothing going for them in this game and Cloud 9 rolled to an easy win. Good opening from the LCS team who are in dire need of every win they can possibly get at this point.
Royal Never Give Up vs PSG Talon (Net: +1.29 units)
Talon absolutely took it to RNG in this game. They contested early, picked up double scuttle crab, and won duels in both mid and bottom lane en route to a fairly clean baron. This was a very VERY clean win from Talon in their most impressive game of the tournament so far considering the competition.
DAMWON Kia Gaming vs MAD Lions (Net: +2.0 units)
Very close, tightly contested game. These are, unfortunately for MAD, the types of games DAMWON thrive in. When they can grind out small advantages and avoid big blowout plays it’s extremely tough to beat them. MAD hung tough in this one but DAMWON controlled this more or less wire-to-wire.
Royal Never Give Up vs Pentanet.GG (Net: +3.0 units)
I felt bad for Pentanet going into this one especially because RNG picked up a loss earlier in the day. This was going to be a biblical beatdown and that’s what ended up happening.
Cloud 9 vs DAMWON Kia Gaming (Net: -0.08 units)
Cloud 9 punched back a few times in about as good a spot as they were going to get in this game but as mentioned earlier, when DAMWON get a lead they’re so good at smothering you out of a game that it almost feels hopeless. Cloud 9 have played really well in this tournament, significantly better than their record which is a shame. Feeling a lot like 2019 Team Liquid at Worlds. Played great, just wasn’t good enough. They’re not dead yet but it’s going to take a pretty insane run over the next few days for them.
PSG Talon vs MAD Lions (Net: -1.02 units)
I was right on the side in this contest and we very confident in the kill total under 28.5 that I double staked it. Unfortunately it landed on 29 leaving us in the red on this contest.
Talon completely demolished this game in much the same way that they did RNG earlier albeit with a better scaling composition this time around. Excellent play all around from the PCS representatives today.
Daily Net Total: +7.19 units
Almost hit double digits but that 29 instead of 28 cost us. Still a great day.
Rumble Stage – Day Four
PSG Talon +277 vs Royal Never Give Up -385
Kill Total: 26.5 (over -119 / under -109)
Kill Spread: +8.5 @ -108 / -8.5 @ -120
Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 17.5
Time Total: 29:00 (over -118 / under -110)
I’m going back to the well on Talon again (noticing a trend?) for similar reasons to yesterday. Even after the slight adjustment I just think this number is a little too big for a best-of-one between these two. RNG are the better team but again this is just a little too disrespectful to a Talon team that are rounding into form the further into this tournament we get. Same plays as yesterday, same thought process.
Kill Spread: Talon +8.5 kills @ -108 (1.08 units)
Moneyline: Talon +277 (0.5 units)
Time Total: OVER 29:00 @ -118 (1.18 units)
MAD Lions +240 vs DAMWON Kia Gaming -303
Kill Total: 26.5 (over -116 / under -112)
Kill Spread: +6.5 @ -105 / -6.5 @ -122
Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 16.5
Time Total: 31:00 (over -105 / under -123)
Weirdly enough this is slightly cheaper than it was yesterday despite a DAMWON win. :Our under got there yesterday and I’ll be going back to the well on that again here. There’s good value on the DAMWON moneyline as I discussed in yesterday’s article (based on pre-tournament odds this would have been roughly -435 for DAMWON) but I like the under quite a bit more so that’s where I’ll be here.
Kill Total: UNDER 26.5 @ -112 (2.24 units)
Cloud 9 +266 vs Royal Never Give Up -333
Kill Total: 26.5 (over -115 / under -112)
Kill Spread: +8.5 @ -111 / -8.5 @ -116
Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 16.5
Time Total: 30:00 (over -105 / under -122)
Similar pricing to the first time out. I backed Cloud 9 in that contest as well as the time total overs and I’ll be doing the same thing here. There’s a chance that Cloud 9 are mathematically eliminated here but I don’t think that will affect their performance or preparation for this specific match. I’d expect them to turn in good efforts for the rest of the tournament. Cloud 9 have been playing really well but small mistakes have been killing them. Eliminate those and they’re just as capable as MAD or PSG when it comes to beating the big dogs. For what it’s worth, I think it’s harder to beat DAMWON than it is RNG and they’ve done that already. RNG are more prone to mistakes. I’ll take the dogs again. I’d expect this to be a tightly contested game.
Time Total: OVER 30:00 @ -105 (2.1 units)
Kill Spread: Cloud 9 +8.5 kills @ -111 (1.11 units)
Moneyline: Cloud 9 +286 (0.5 units)
Pentanet.GG +564 vs MAD Lions -1000
Kill Total: 27.5 (over -119 / under -110)
Kill Spread: +10.5 @ -112 / -10.5 @ -115
Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 20.5
Time Total: 31:00 (over +171 / under -227)
There’s always this weird dynamic when it comes down to pivotal games against “bad” teams in tournaments and best-of-ones especially. There is a TON of pressure on the favorite in these spots. There’s a chance we see that get to MAD Lions but I wouldn’t bet on it. This team has remained loose and confident even in high pressure situations before. I could see the logic in backing Pentanet here on the kill spread but I’m going in a different direction like I’ve been doing with the big favorite situations against Pentanet and just taking neutral unders.
I took the MAD team total over 18.5 kills last time but it’s up to 20.5 and I’d actually lean under over that over in this spot with the pressure on. Won’t be taking that position again in this situation.
Prop: UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -286 (2.86 units)
Time Total: UNDER 31:00 @ -227 (2.27 units)
DAMWON Kia Gaming -385 vs PSG Talon +279
Kill Total: 24.5 (over -120 / under -108)
Kill Spread: -7.5 @ -105 / +7.5 @ -122
Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 8.5
Time Total: 31:00 (over -105 / under -123)
I backed Talon against RNG but I’m not going to be backing them here. If I’m wrong about that then so be it. I won’t be on DAMWON either. The model has these markets essentially spot on across the board in this contest. I’ll be passing. If I had to take a position it’d be Talon +7.5 kills.
Pentanet.GG +452 vs Cloud 9 -714
Kill Total: 25.5 (over -119 / under -109)
Kill Spread: +10.5 @ -118 / -10.5 @ -111
Team Kill Totals: 7.5 / 17.5
Time Total: 31:00 (over +186 / under -250)
There’s potential for this to be a “meaningless” game if certain things shake out and Cloud 9 end up mathematically eliminated. It’s tough to gauge how they’ll handle that. Knowing Perkz led teams I wouldn’t put a little clowning around past them in which case I absolutely LOVE the kill total over in this contest BUT I think there’s a reasonable chance that Cloud 9 just want to put Pentanet in a body bag to make a statement for the fans at home even if they are eliminated.
I’m going to take a wait and see approach on this one. If Cloud 9 are eliminated I’ll likely be on the kill total overs. Either way I’ll be on neutral objective unders.
Prop: UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -238 (2.38 units)
(if Cloud 9 are eliminated going into this match)
Kill Total: OVER 25.5 @ -119 (2.38 units)
I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.
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(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)