Sunday, May 9th Recap
I’ll be doing a recap on these later tonight or tomorrow as I’ve got limited time to work with today.
Unicorns of Love vs Royal Never Give Up Match 3 (Net: +1.53 units)
Unicorns of Love vs Pentanet Match 3 (Net: +0.3 units)
Royal Never Give Up vs Pentanet Match 3 (Net: -1.37 units)
Royal Never Give Up vs Unicorns of Love Match 4 (Net: +1.61 units)
Pentanet vs Unicorns of Love Match 4 (Net: -0.88 units)
Pentanet vs Royal Never Give Up Match 4 (Net: no action)
Unicorns of Love vs Pentanet Tiebreaker (Net: no action)
Daily Total: +1.19 units
Happy Mother’s Day to those celebrating! Make sure to take the time to show your appreciation!
Hell of a story for Pentanet to emerge from this group after such an abysmal showing on day one of this tournament. I knew this team was better than that but even my confidence was shaken a bit after that one. A piece from my pre-tournament preview. I rarely call in “I told you so’s” but I’ll take this one.
“ The Oceanic region has delivered some talented players to us in recent years and they’ve shown arguably the best of the “small” international wild card leagues in the past three or four years with better performances than all but Turkey’s TCL and the PCS/LMS. Pentanet are linear but a very fundamentally solid team that I’m rating as the “best of the rest” in this tournament. They are exactly what we expect from a good team from one of the smaller leagues. There was no question whatsoever that they were the best team in this league and they did what good teams do and smashed the competition. Even if you think that competition isn’t quite as strong as previous years, there are a handful of the other smaller region leagues that don’t have top teams that dominated as hard as Pentanet did.”
Adjustments for Day Five
I probably didn’t respect the fiesta potential for RNG enough in these matches especially because PGG aren’t exactly going to go down without a fight. I’m not entirely sure we’ll see the same demeanor from the other groups though as they’re more contested and appear more serious. Unders still look like the play under pressure to me even though we had a few huge blow up games in Group A. That said, we do have some high kill teams in Group B so I’ll choose my battles.
It’s going to be significantly harder to “predict” which matches will and won’t matter for Group B so I’m not going to get cute and try to guess at which will be clown fiestas for things like that. I’ll be a taking a very leveled approach to this.
Group Stage – Day Five
Second day of the second round robin is Group B
MAD Lions -417 vs Istanbul Wildcats +298
Kill Total: 28.5 (over -109 / under -120)
Kill Spread: -10.5 @ -112 / +10.5 @ -116
Team Kill Totals: 18.5 / 8.5
Time Total: 31:00 (over +103 / under -133)
The Wildcats made this match interesting the last time these two faced off. I think HolyPhoenix and Farfetch are a very punishing 2v2 lane and they’re good at it. They introduce the kind of volatility to the bottom lane that could completely blow out a MAD Lions bottom lane that are also risk takers. To me, every time these teams play it’s going to hinge heavily on which bot lane wins. I think MAD Lions are the better team especially because IWC haven’t looked nearly as strong as I’d anticipated but I think this matchup is much closer to a coin flip than the odds suggest even still.
I have some pre-tournament exposure to IWC and I won’t be adding on to it despite the improved kill spread we’re getting here (10.5 vs 8.5). This is the one matchup that I don’t like unders nearly as much in but instead of hitting the game total over I’ll be taking the Wildcats team total over 8.5.
Kill Total (team): Wildcats OVER 8.5 kills @ -128 (1.28 units)
PSG Talon -312 vs paiN Gaming +228
Kill Total: 27.5 (over -120 / under -108)
Kill Spread: -9.5 @ -120 / +9.5 @ -108
Team Kill Totals: 18.5 / 8.5
Time Total: 31:00 (over +147 / under -196)
Talon look to have shaken the cobwebs off and performed as I expected them to in their second day of games. I think there’s a very strong chance that they emerge as the #1 seed or at least force a tiebreaker with MAD Lions in this group. Pain have shown a lot of resilience in their games, constantly fighting back even from large deficits. While I appreciate the ability to do that, it’s not where you want to be in most games and not a reliable way to win games of League of Legends in general. paiN have far exceeded expectations but I think they’re probably due for some regression. Without some colossal throws we wouldn’t be talking about this team as anything more than an 0-6 or 1-5 squad.
I won’t be adding to my PSG pre-tournament exposure (moneyline parlay) but I will be taking the under time total and under tower totals. I’ll be avoiding the kills on this one only because paiN tend to throw themselves at their opponents and fight A LOT when behind so I think there’s a chance we see a bit of an all out, kitchen sink sort of situation with them this time around.
Time Total: UNDER 31:00 @ -196 (1.96 units)
Prop: UNDER 12.5 towers @ -294 (2.94 units)
PSG Talon -286 vs Istanbul Wildcats +216
Kill Total: 27.5 (over -122 / under -108)
Kill Spread: -9.5 @ -108 / +9.5 @ -122
Team Kill Totals: 17.5 / 9.5
Time Total: 32:00 (over +157 / under -208)
Another match that I have pre-tournament exposure on via parlay with the first leg already won. Again, the Wildcats haven’t looked quite as good so far as I’d anticipated they would but Talon seem to be delivering. I like all three unders in this one.
Kill Total: UNDER 27.5 @ -108 (1.08 units)
Time Total: UNDER 32:00 @ -208 (2.08 units)
Prop: UNDER 12.5 towers @ -250 (2.5 units)
MAD Lions -476 vs paiN Gaming +326
Kill Total: 28.5 (over -109 / under -119)
Kill Spread: -9.5 @ -123 / +9.5 @ -105
Team Kill Totals: 18.5 / 9.5
Time Total: 31:00 (over +116 / under -152)
First leg of the pre-tournament moneyline parlay on MAD got there for us just need this one.
MAD have looked dominant but they’ve also taken a lot of unnecessary risks which has me slightly concerned but not enough to get out of this position or anything. MAD have been extremely bloody and I think I’m done tempting fate with under plays on their high totals. They have no issue whatsoever with trading lives for objectives or won overall trades. I actually like the MAD team total over here quite a bit but just by the risky nature of how MAD play I’m not as comfortable with the tower and time unders in this spot so I’ll stick to just adding the team total. I don’t normally like team total overs at such high numbers but with these wildcard teams throwing everything they have an having no shame in going down with a fight these numbers can get pretty wild and I’m a lot more in favor of it than I’d normally be domestically. paiN could also be eliminated already going into this game which is an added bonus.
Kill Total (team): MAD Lions OVER 18.5 kills @ -114 (2.28 units)
Istanbul Wildcats -111 vs paiN Gaming -115
Kill Total: 29.5 (over -108 / under -122)
Kill Spread: +0.5 @ -116 / -0.5 @ -112
Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 13.5
Time Total: 32:00 (over -116 / under -112)
I’ve got pre-tournament double stakes on each moneyline for IWC over paiN. The comeback win from paiN in the first game really stung but I still think it’s the right position. It’s tough to tell how these teams will handle this match given that they could both be eliminated. There’s a chance we get a complete clown fiesta or a very serious, elimination style matchup. Either way I like the overs on neutral objectives for this matchup.
Time Total: OVER 32:00 @ -116 (1.16 units)
Prop: OVER 12.5 towers @ +169 (0.5 units)
Prop: OVER 4.5 dragons @ +100 (1 unit)
Prop: OVER 1.5 barons @ +128 (0.5 units)
MAD Lions -164 vs PSG Talon +128
Kill Total: 27.5 (over -122 / under -105)
Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -110 / +6.5 @ -118
Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 12.5
Time Total: 32:00 (over -114 / under -115)
The interesting thing about this match is that it doesn’t particularly matter who gets out of the group in first or not so there’s a chance that both teams have clinched a berth to the next stage going into this and we see a much looser game plan. Talon don’t strike me as that sort of team but MAD Lions do. If I had to guess both teams should be taking this seriously as they’re going to see each other twice more in the next stage of the tournament IF they’re the two to get out of this group so clowning around might not be the look even if potential limit testing or experimental picks might be.
I think we’ll see a competitive matchup here. I already have a pre-tournament wager on Talon that I won’t be adding to or hedging out of but I’ll be adding overs on neutrals in what I’d expect will be a competitive game.
Time Total: OVER 32:00 @ -114 (1.14 units)
Prop: OVER 12.5 towers @ +126 (1 unit)
Prop: OVER 4.5 dragons @ +105 (1 unit)
Prop: OVER 1.5 barons @ +139 (0.5 units)
I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.
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(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)