Sunday, March 7th Recap

 

Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G (Net: +1.75 units)

Game one was very much a Hanwha style, bar fight kind of game despite the lack of total kills at the end of the day. There were a lot of early skirmishes and so many of these fights were on a knife’s edge but Gen.G won the attrition battle stacking up four drakes and consistently winning the fights in terms of gold. Once Gen.G took a hold of the game, the Reksai for Yohan kept falling off and eventually took the game.

Game two, Hanwha drafted an all physical damage composition but there was only really an Udyr on the opposing team for potential problematic tanks. Still, it allows easy itemization equity for opposing team such as Plated Steelcaps and Seeker’s Armguard gaining free value and becoming hyper efficient. Shen, Olaf, Sion, Tristana, Rell…. HLE were going to dive you and fight forward. I could actually see this working out for them strictly on easy of execution vs Syndra+Kalista. I liked this draft actually.

The actual game did not go that way… Clid recognized that getting Kalista ahead was the way to play this and knowing Tristana/Rell is a fairly easy lane to bait into a fight (they want to all in you at level 2 or 3 that’s part of their power). He just took time out of his route to show up and picked up first blood for Ruler’s Kalista. From there Gen.G just played toward top side and traded dragons for top pressure to get Camille ahead for a possible split push win condition. Gen.G contested the third drake got the drake and went 1 for 1. The next big fight was top side around the 19:30 mark in another close but extremely well played fight for Gen.G by denying any resets to Deft’s Tristana. That fight would turn the tides of the game as they flipped it directly into a 20 minute baron.

This was a very fun series to watch. It felt like a Hanwha style, bar fight type of series with a ton of high level skirmishing. I give Gen.G a ton of credit for fighting fire with fire here instead of just trying to outlast Hanwha Life. Beating them at their own game is a really good look for Hanwha. Keep in mind though, that Gen.G are no slouches in the early game, quite the contrary actually.  Great series despite the 2-0 score line.

Note: Morgan and Yohan for HLE

DRX vs Fredit Brion (Net: +0.7525 units)

I know Brion lost this series but I wanted to take some time and give credit to UmTi. This guy is so SO good and has been for most of his long career but he’s just always been on really weak teams. He’s just intelligent about the game and recognizing his outs in a game. Game one he got such a huge lead on Hecarim just from a little creativity in focusing mid lane for a change… I digress.

Brion had a head start compliments of UmTi in game one and kept the pace of this game up through the first fifteen minutes but DRX did their patented “bend but don’t break” defense and just kept it close. The fourth dragon fight in this game was cataclysmic! Super close but DRX did get out with their second dragon. DRX would force baron around 27:30, it would be stolen by Hena’s Jinx but Brion would lose the follow up team fight by getting aced. At the fifth drake, Delight tried a flash ult engage as Rell that was denied by Becca’s Alistar but Brion’s other engages forced the fight and DRX won yet another extremely close team fight. Around 34:00, Kingen had an incredible teleport flank to catch Hena and Delight and DRX would win the game.

Game two DRX showed a completely different look with Renekton + Nidalee top side against Brion drafting yet again another traditional front-to-back team fight with Sion Orianna Aphelios as a ridiculously strong scaling core. This game started off poorly for DRX as well despite the first blood going to Pyosik’s Nidalee via a gank top. They lost at the first herald fight, Yaharong scored a solo kill on Solka as the Orianna vs the Syndra matchup, and Brion had suddenly jumped out to a small gold lead again this time with two kills on the Aphelios.  DRX kept playing to their outs though and kept ganking the Sion with the Nidalee Renekton combo. A small win for DRX at the second dragon, another small win at the third dragon and all of the sudden DRX have a 2000 gold lead. Brion, maybe a little tilted, forced a baron off of the small loss at the third dragon but DRX read them like a book and forced them off of it. DRX would give up the soul dragon to get leverage on baron forcing Brion to face check it blind. Brion would try to use Sion ult, passive, and lantern to get enough vision to wedge DRX off the baron and maybe steal it with a burst combo from Orianna Aphelios + smite but Pyosik was nails and killed Sion before the lantern AND landed the smite win. DRX would eventually win off that baron push.

You know… I keep saying that this team can’t keep getting away with it but they are actually improving and their team fighting is EXCELLENT. DRX are starting to remind me a lot of the old LPL Snake Esports who were not a particularly good team but their team fighting film was the stuff of coaching legend. Moving as a unit, perfect phalanxing, great offensive line play for their carries, great focus fire… it’s honestly just beautiful to watch. They were winning some of these fights with, in my opinion, an inferior composition later in the games at relatively close to even gold or even at deficits. It’s just impressive. DRX play a dangerous game and I don’t think they’ll be able to get away with this against good teams but they deserve some credit for the brilliant team fighting they’ve displayed this season.

 

Rogue Warriors vs OMG (Net: -6.59 units)

The game script was flip-flopped from what I thought it would be in this series which is why I took a hit to the bankroll but this was just an ugly series.

Game one was slow but OMG just made fewer mistakes. First of all Ziv tried the top Nocturne lane counter against Aatrox in game two. Game two was an absolute clown fiesta after a hilarious fight at 5 minutes at the red side wolves… I don’t know why we saw so many fights there this weekend. This just turned into a bloodbath and frankly looked like a solo queue game from that point forward.

There’s really not a lot of analysis to do on this series, especially the second game. Like… I think Rogue Warriors might not care and are just going to play what they want at this point. They’re just playing extremely loose. They definitely could have won this game two but their team fighting was so awful and directionless in so many situations. Think this is the worst team in the LPL folks :-/ Ugly series, deserving of The Toilet Bowl nomination.

ThunderTalk (TT) vs BiliBili (Net: -4.04 units)

Game one was fast and furious with a lot of really aggressive plays on the junglers for each teams trying to disrupt the flow. Bilibili ended up trading up in a bunch of these situations. It wasn’t the cleanest but they were getting edges every time. BLG ended up winning a huge fight in the mid lane around 23:30 and they flipped it into a baron and snowballed the game from there.

Game two we saw yet another Nocturne mid this time from Twila. This game was the BiuBiu and Meteor show as they just repeatedly picked on Chelizi geting the Jayce really REALLY fed. TT didn’t punch back on the other side of the map other than a dragon. BiuBiu and Meteor dominated a top 3v3 and you could sort of tell how this was going to go. Again, BLG were the proactive team and TT just didn’t properly counter punch on the other side or the map or even match the plays in most situations.

This looked WAY more like 2020 BiliBili and even though we lost money on this series because it didn’t quite play out the way I thought it would, it was a breath of fresh air to see BiliBili playing the way they SHOULD have been playing this entire time; tempo tempo tempo!

TT weren’t completely rolling over and dying but you could tell they were just a little overwhelmed in this one which is odd because they’ve had such strong early games for the most part this season (although not in their two most recent series).  Still it was good to see them try something interesting with the Nocturne and there’s a lot of things they could fix fairly easily from this series.

Invictus vs TOP Esports (Net: +7.44 units)

This was a really high level series from both teams despite a few really silly situations.

Game one TOP funneled ten turret plates into JackeyLove’s Aphelios and he was up 2000+ gold on Puff’s Kalista but TheShy just completely took over every fight and every weak side skirmish that happened in this game on Renekton for the full pop off. Maybe one of the harder carries we’ve seen this year on the champion. Invictus just won the dragon fights and managed to stack four drakes to eventually get the win in this one.

Game two started fast and furious as well but both sides kept things very even other than Invictus picking up the first two drakes in exchange for Karsa funneling gold into 369’s Jayce via herald and plates. This game was actually looking like it was in Invictus’ favor before TOP aced them while preparing for the third drake, flipped that into a baron and an 8000+ gold lead minutes later.

Game three exploded at a 4v4 herald fight that TOP ended up winning 3-2 and picking up the herald. TOP flipped that into a dragon to disrupt Invictus. This game remained close for a little while but every skirmish ended up being advantage TOP. They always traded up. Mid dive around 11 minutes but Jackey got funneled bot tower solo via herald making it not worth it. TOP just got ahead on tempo rotating around the map and if you ever give this team any kind of advantage you’re done.

I think this series was a perfect illustration of why both of these teams are so good. You give them an inch, they take a mile. All three of these games felt close before somebody fumbled something and suddenly it was a complete blowout. This is what good teams do and why these two teams have such a strong quality win rate. They never let mediocre and bad teams stay in games. You just lose if you make any kind of relevant error. Fun series to watch.

 

100 Thieves vs Golden Guardians (Net: ??)

Evil Geniuses vs Dignitas (Net: ??)

Cloud 9 vs TSM (Net: ??)

CLG vs Liquid (Net: ??)

FlyQuest vs Immortals (Net: ??)

 

 

LPL Net Total: -3.19 units

LCK Net Total: +2.5025 units

LCS Net Total: (pending)

 

Daily Net Total: (pending)

 

 

Week of March 1st-7th: (pending)

 

 


LOL Pro League (China)

Week 8 – Day 1

 

 

JD Gaming -357 (-1.5 maps @ -102, +1.5 @ -1250)

vs

Victory Five +257 (+1.5 maps @ -125, -1.5 @ +638)

 

 

Map ML Price: JDG -250 / V5 +188

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +130 / under -167)

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -111 / under -118)

Kill Spread: -7.5 @ -116 / +7.5 @ -111

Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over +134 / under -175)

 

 

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

Victory Five +1.5 maps @ -125 (strong)

Victory Five series moneyline @ +257 (strong)

Victory Five map moneyline @ +188 (strong)

OVER 2.5 maps @ +130 (moderate)

 

Victory Five sit at 5-6 on the outside looking in for playoffs but it’s still conceivable that they make it. The problem is that their schedule is ridiculously difficult. With JDG and RareAtom this week followed by TOP, FunPlus, and Invictus in weeks 9 and 10. Brutal. We’ve seen this team perform well as an underdog in the past but things are not looking for our Victorious heroes. Against Suning the other day we saw a COMPLETELY different look from this squad trying to play a slower, scaling look. It’s not the first time we’ve seen them do this but it feels a bit odd to me that with their backs against the wall, they throw a curveball instead of using their tried-and-true uptempo look, you know, the one they’re good at.

JDG have been rolling and look like maybe they’re rounding into form. I’m still not entirely convinced about this team being elite. They still rely way way too much on their opponents making obvious mistakes and as we saw with TT, even during those situations, JDG aren’t exactly the cleanest when it comes to execution right now. On the plus side, the bottom lane has been much better in their past few series which has been good to see after struggling so much this season overall.

The model likes V5 in this match because JDG’s numbers have really not been that impressive and that’s including added weight on trending performance where they’ve been better. This number is simply too large. To me, the majority of the handicap for this series comes down to which V5 we see. Do we see the tried-and-true uptempo, skirmish heavy look that we’ve come to associate with this team or do we see a team that lacks confidence and is trying to do something they’re not comfortable with because they feel lost? I like to think they’ve learned their lesson from the previous series and that Victory Five will get up for this match by going back to their bread and butter.

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 25.717

Time-Implied: 26.199

Underdog Win: 25.333

“Gelati” Total Projection: 25.682 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 47.81% (JDG 47.62% / V5 48%)

Volatility Rating: JDG 0.32825 / V5 0.30006 (League Avg: 0.2986)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

V5 team total OVER 9.5 kills @ -102 (strong)

JDG team total UNDER 15.5 kills @ -103 (moderate)

 

I think this number is fairly sharp and given the question marks regarding the game script in this series with V5’s recent look, that’s even more uncertainty. Pass. Regarding the team totals, it’s influenced by the model’s projection which is close to an even matchup. IF you think JDG roll here then the V5 under is likely a decent play.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 30.369 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 30.65 / 30.07

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 35.43% (JDG 42.86% / V5 28%)

Volatility Rating: JDG 0.18306 / V5 0.13840 (League Avg: 0.15805)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none

 

Again a sharp number depending on game script. If you’re bullish on V5 like I am the under actually looks appealing in this one given how quickly the win and lose games under normal circumstances but if they’re not going to play the way they usually do then this suddenly looks terrible. Pass.

 

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

V5 first tower @ +120 (strong)

UNDER 4.5 dragons @ +100 (strong)

V5 first herald @ +105 (strong)

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -238 (light)

UNDER 1.5 barons @ -217 (light)

V5 first blood (very light)

 

The numbers don’t show it but JDG have been a herald team this season despite not securing the objective very often. They frequently sell out to take the first herald fight and if the other team takes it and they win, they usually win the game, otherwise JDG lose almost every single time. Smart teams just don’t oblige them and make JDG work for their win, dumb teams take a lopsided fight knowing this. I’d expect Victory Five to take the fight. Herald is their bread and butter over the past 12 months but they USUALLY are well-equipped to win that fight through the draft. If we see a more proto-typical V5 looking draft then the herald/tower wagers are nice here. Unfortunately you don’t usually get to see props once the game starts so you have to speculate a little here. I think we see a more normal looking V5 after they’ve been crushed trying to play slow the past two matches.

 

 

My Picks:

 

Map Spread: V5 +1.5 maps @ -125 (1.25 units)

Moneyline: V5 +257 (0.25 units)

Map Spread: V5 -1.5 maps @ +638 (0.1 units)

Prop: Map 1 V5 first herald @ +105 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 V5 first herald @ +105 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 3 V5 first herald @ +105 (1 unit)

  

 


Royal Never Give Up -2000 (-1.5 maps @ -333)

vs

eStar Pro +847 (+1.5 maps @ +244, -1.5 @ +1800)

 

 

Map ML Price: RNG -909 / EST +526

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +274 / under -385)

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -122 / under -108)

Kill Spread: -11.5 @ -104 / +11.5 @ -125

Team Kill Totals: 17.5 / 6.5

Time Total: 30:00 (over -115 / under -114)

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

eStar +1.5 maps @ +244 (strong)

eStar series moneyline @ +847 (moderate-light)

eStar map moneyline @ +526 (moderate-light)

OVER 2.5 maps @ +274 (moderate-light)

 

So this is obviously an obscene number and you’ve got to ask yourself if you’re going to play this how you’re going to do it. eStar are all but eliminated from playoffs (although not mathematically). Their Spring season is done. RNG are coming off of a dramatic win over EDG yesterday to put them on top of the table.

This is a CLASSIC let down spot.

eStar are not very good but not only have nothing to lose at this point, but they have a super high variance playstyle that can randomly snipe games even off of good teams, or at least allow them to get off to good starts which is what I’m hoping (more on that in a bit).

I wouldn’t play RNG at this number in any capacity after such a dramatic win the other day. They could be feeling themselves, could try some pick that doesn’t work, could even run subs or something like that. They still have a lot of matches left so I don’t think they’ll be coasting but to think they put a lot of preparation time into this series I think is a little optimistic.

IF you’re going to play RNG this series the way to do it would be to take the under total objectives plays. Things like under 12.5 towers, 4.5 dragons, 1.5 barons etc.

IF you’re going to play eStar you have a few options.

The model likes the outright but I don’t. This team sucks way too bad at closing games out but I do think they could jump out to a lead on RNG or really anybody with some sweet plays from ShiauC. I like playing the extremely low team total over as well as the kill spread which is a ridiculous 11.5, the largest I’ve seen this season. There’s a very strong chance RNG either play with their food here in which case you’ve got a strong chance at the over, OR they just want to get in and get out just like a heavy favorite in an NFL game. They’ll want to run vanilla strategies, not show too much, and just get out with a win no matter how they do it. The kill spread plays VERY well in these kinds of situations. That’s how I’ll be attacking this.

I also like that we’re getting Insulator in his second match, now that he’s got the nerves out from the first one maybe he’ll loosen up and we get to see some sparks fly. This kid is dynamic keep an eye out. 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 27.46

Time-Implied: 26.929

Underdog Win: 27.382

“Gelati” Total Projection: 26.978 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 61.86% (RNG 58.33% / EST 65.38%)

Volatility Rating: RNG 0.29712 / EST 0.21686 (League Avg: 0.2986)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

eStar team total OVER 6.5 kills @ -119 (VERY strong)

(alt) OVER 23.5 kills @ -143 (strong)

OVER 24.5 kills @ -122 (moderate)

RNG team total UNDER 17.5 kills @ -122 (moderate)

(alt) OVER 25.5 kills @ -102 (light)

 

6.5 is an extremely low kill total. In the four games with an underdog team total that low the dog has covered in three of them. In fact, eStar have only gone under that total six times this entire season. and four of those six landed on 6. My projections like the over, I like the team total over a lot for the dogs and the under on the favorites, this is a perfect spot for a kill spread but at such a low team total it’s tough to ignore that as the obvious play here. I’ll be playing both.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 31.549 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 31.59 / 31.49

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 52.24% (RNG 58.33% / EST 46.15%)

Volatility Rating: RNG 0.16642 / EST 0.17855 (League Avg: 0.15805)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none

 

Sharp number. RNG tend to take their time but eStar also lose very quickly. I’d lean toward the over here but don’t like it enough to bet it.

 

 

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

eStar first blood @ +140 (VERY strong)

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -312 (moderate)

eStar first dragon @ +148 (moderate)

 

With such huge numbers it’s tough not to want to take a shot on these. I’ll take the first blood.

 

 

My Picks:

 

Kill Total (team): Map 1 eStar OVER 6.5 kills @ -119 (1.19 units)

Kill Total (team): Map 2 eStar OVER 6.5 kills @ -119 (1.19 units)

Kill Total (team): Map 3 eStar OVER 7.5 kills @ -112 (1.12 units)

Kill Spread: Map 1 eStar +11.5 kills @ -125 (1.25 units)

Kill Spread: Map 2 eStar +11.5 kills @ -127 (1.27 units)

Kill Spread: Map 3 eStar +10.5 kills @ -127 (1.27 units)

Prop: Map 1 eStar first blood @ +140 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 eStar first blood @ +137 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 3 eStar first blood @ +120 (1 unit)

 

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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