Sunday, March 21st Recap

 

JD Gaming vs LGD Gaming (Net: +1.15 units)

Kanavi completely took over this first game. Not really much else to say on that one as JDG rolled. The second game, however, was a competitive contest where LGD had a 5000+ gold lead at around the 23 minute mark after their first baron power play and managed to throw it all away on just the weirdest non-reaction to the map I’ve seen in awhile. JDG hard commited to kill Garvey top side out of desperation, LGD then committed to a fight mid lane where they KNEW Zoom and Kanavi were collapsing. Kramer was shoving bottom this entire time… Either Kramer groups and you win this fight, or you rotate to Kramer and you take bot turret and possibly even inhibitor turret as a punish.  LGD lost this fight because they did neither of these things and this was just the first mishap that would set of a chain of events that would allow JDG back into what was more or less an un-loseable game for LGD.

Pretty frustrating that LGD didn’t close this one out and it single handedly kept us from the green in the LPL today. JDG got lucky in this one but did look dominant in game one. Not sure how much a single game really moves the needle especially because LGD have shown some competency in recent weeks.

LNG Esports vs Suning Gaming (Net: -1.89 units)

LNG looked like they were in a decent spot in game one but just couldn’t build enough of a lead to overcome Seraphine scaling and that’s basically all this game was.

I have absolutely no idea how LNG lost game two. Obviously Camille scaling was eventually going to be an issue in the side lane but LNG had a very VERY strong team fight composition in this game, picked up a very early baron (21ish mins), and picked up a huge influx of gold. When they were sieging bottom inhibitor tower LNG picked off ON but SN committed TF ult to get to backline and sell out for Azir. LNG had a chance to retreat from here and for whatever reason stepped back up even though one of their primary carries was down. Jinx picked up a reset and this quickly turned into an ace.

I can’t deal with how stupid some of these mid tier LPL teams are some times. They have absolutely no idea what to do with a lead, how to protect a lead, and seemingly have no concept of their opponents win conditions. They also have no clue how to stop the bleeding. It’s incredibly frustrating. That’s two games this morning that were 85%+ (95%+ in the LGD case) that didn’t go our way.

T1 vs Afreeca (Net: +0.67 units)

Afreeca throw with exceptional proficiency. I really just… it’s uncanny really. T1 got a little cute in game two of this series in an early skirmish where Fly’s Viktor picked up an early triple kill and they never really recovered despite Afreeca trying to hand it back to them. Game three was back to a rout.

Afreeca are now eliminated from playoff contention. You want to talk about a disappointing season… jeez. Just goes to show you how quickly a season can go off the rails if you never learn how to close with a lead. Teams like this are always frustrating because there are always a handful of them around the world. Most improve as the year goes on and learn how to take advantage of what they have but a select few simply never figure it out or remain snake-bitten. It’s tough to tell what Afreeca will be like in Summer but I simply can’t imagine this team is this bad again. They’re just too talented.

T1 lost themselves this game two and you could make the argument that they should have lost game one without an Afreeca throw but their scaling in game one allowed them to just wait for an Afreeca mistake. This wasn’t a particularly good looking series for the T1 veterans and was arguably this iterations worst showing but this series also didn’t mean much to them in the grand scheme of things. They can’t get a bye and are more or less just fighting for side selection in the first round at this point. Slight downgrade but they get points for showing a few different looks throughout this series.

DRX vs DAMWON (Net: -1.785 units)

I cautioned that ShowMaker might play still in this Discord. Something I’ve learned over the years in my interactions with Korean esports and that culture in general is that people are extremely cautious and there is a tendency to go to the hospital for just about anything (not a bad practice if the system is efficient). With the little information we had I don’t think it was wrong to expect him not to play but I didn’t rule it out either. It’s why it’s critical to pay attention to lineups before the games come out.

DAMWON were a value in this position if you had the fortitude to back them regardless and they managed to stall out and utilize Everfrost Zilean with Hecarim to really beat up on SOLKA’s Seraphine pick. This is something I think we’ll see more often. Game two we saw the Zilean yet again, this time against Syndra and DAMWON just completely steamrolled this one in 25 minutes constantly picking on Pyosik’s Kindred (how many teams can say that sentence?).

DAMWON are good folks… news flash I know.

Cloud 9 vs 100 Thieves (Net: +2.94 units (1.94 and +1 from live))

 

LPL Net Total: -0.74 units

LCK Net Total: -1.115 units

LCS Net Total: +2.94 units

 

Daily Net Total: +1.085 units

 

Current Week (March 15th-21st):  -16.94 units (-11.17% ROI)

 

 


LOL Pro League (China)

Week 10 – Day 1

 

Royal Never Give Up -179 (-1.5 maps @ +163, +1.5 @ -625)

vs

RareAtom +139 (+1.5 maps @ -213, -1.5 @ +408)

 

 

Map ML Price: RNG -159 / RA +124

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +104 / under -132)

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -122 / under -105)

Kill Spread: -4.5 @ -122 / +4.5 @ -106

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 11.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -119 / under -110)

 

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

Royal Never GU Tale of the Tape Vici
-300.3 Gold Diff @ 10 min -48.5
277.2 Gold Diff @ 15 min 375.6
466.5 Gold Diff @ 20 min 142.1
-9.7 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 47.7
59.9 Gold Diff / min first 20 40.7
553.2 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 357.4
1897.2 Gold /min 1853.4
92.4 Gold / min vs Avg 48.7
182.4 Gold Diff / min 123.0
2.5 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 1.7
1675.0 Kill Agnostic GPM 1666.6
108.9 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 90.6
17.7 Win-Adjusted GPM -20.3
14.9 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -9.9
57.6 Dragon Control % 51.2
47.0 Herald Control % 47.6
72.9 Baron Control % 63.8
9.0 Quality Wins? 5.0
36.0 % of wins as Quality 23.8

 

 

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none

 

From a statistical perspective these are two fairly evenly matched teams with a slight edge to RNG. However, RNG have shown time and time again that they’re one of the class of the LPL. Their only match losses this season were to JDG and BiliBili. They’ve toppled TOP, EDG, FPX, IG, WE, and Suning over the course of the season. This team is incredibly intelligent about the way they go about things and have an excellent read on the overall metagame this season. They’re the best macro team in the LPL.

That said, they’re by no means perfect. Just because they haven’t been beaten frequently doesn’t mean that they don’t have their soft underbelly. Obviously with scaling and dragon centric teams their statistics are going to be less impressive most of the time but RNG rank #6 in win-adjusted gold differential per minute, #5 in win-adjusted gold per minute, #6 in gold differential per minute in wins, #4 in kill agnostic gold differential per minute. Where RNG make their hay is overall objective control (#2) where they sit a cut above the rest of the league along with TOP. (#1).

This is a good price for this series and I make this more or less right on market but the vig on both sides makes it a -EV play either way without adjustments. RNG aren’t unbeatable but it’s really difficult to make a case against them at the moment. This is going to be a pass for me. If I absolutely had to pick a side here it’d actually be RA mostly because at some point RNG are going to turn in a mediocre performance and RA have the individual talent to just outclass all of these players in lane. Leyan is also one of the few junglers that can hold a candle to Wei’s dominance over the past 16 months.

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 27.242

Time-Implied: 26.357

Underdog Win: 25.988

“Gelati” Total Projection: 26.677 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 47.73% (RNG 45.45% / RA 50%)

Volatility Rating: RNG 0.27906 / RA 0.31879 (League Avg: 0.2999)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

UNDER 25.5 @ -105 (light)

—-

Team Totals:

RA team total OVER 11.5 @ -125 (strong)*

RNG team total OVER 14.5 @ -103 (light)*

 

Combined Kills / game 26.538 26.297
Combined Kills / min 0.837 0.771
Kills per win 17.469 16.863
Kills per loss 9.125 10.685
Deaths per win 8.24 8.67

 

 

(RNG left, RA right)

* frequency based which is why this suggestion is as heavy as it is

I’d lean toward the under for the full game total here like the model is suggesting. No plays.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 32.764 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 32.99 / 33.0

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 50.8% (RNG 48.48% / RA 53.125%)

Volatility Rating: RNG 0.16226 / RA 0.16683 (League Avg: 0.16058)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none

 

RNG RA
Average Game Time 32.10 33.43
Avg Game Time (in wins) 32.39 32.46
Avg Game Time (in losses) 31.202 35.276

 

Number is right on the money. I’d lean over if you think this is competitive at all but pass from me.

 

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OVER 1.5 barons @ +144 (strong)

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -303 (moderate-strong)

RA first blood @ +100 (moderate)*

OVER 4.5 dragons @ -147 (light)

RA first dragon @ -106 (light)

RNG first blood @ -130 (miniscule)*

 

* frequency based which is why this suggestion is as heavy as it is

I think these should be more competitive games and if we’re looking at a likely 32ish minute time total for 2 or 3 of these games then I like the over dragons and barons. In this case I’ll take the over barons.

 

My Picks:

 

Prop: Map 1 OVER 1.5 barons @ +144 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 OVER 1.5 barons @ +142 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 3 OVER 1.5 barons @ +130 (1 unit)

 

 


 

Invictus Gaming -769 (-1.5 maps @ -192)

vs

Victory Five +466 (+1.5 maps @ +150, -1.5 @ +1200)

 

 

Map ML Price: IG -370 / V5 +270

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +196 / under -263)

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -112 / under -115)

Kill Spread: -8.5 @ -115 / +8.5 @ -112

Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over +139 / under -182)

 (Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

Invictus Tale of the Tape Victory Five
951.9 Gold Diff @ 10 min -432.5
1317.5 Gold Diff @ 15 min -148.8
1071.4 Gold Diff @ 20 min -158.9
51.6 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -78.5
51.8 Gold Diff / min first 20 -3.2
53.9 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 571.3
1824.9 Gold /min 1752.9
20.1 Gold / min vs Avg -51.9
60.7 Gold Diff / min -101.0
0.9 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -1.4
1604.3 Kill Agnostic GPM 1575.4
34.0 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -65.7
20.8 Win-Adjusted GPM -13.2
60.6 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -22.0
61.7 Dragon Control % 39.0
43.5 Herald Control % 59.4
64.7 Baron Control % 44.2
12.0 Quality Wins? 9.0
70.6 % of wins as Quality 64.3

 

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

V5 +1.5 maps @ +150 (VERY strong)

V5 series moneyline @ +466 (strong)

OVER 2.5 maps @ +196 (strong)

V5 map moneyline @ +270 (strong)

 

It was nice seeing V5 back to their old ways in their last series, a huge upset of FPX. Typically I like fading teams coming off of big upsets like that but in a lot of ways that was the level of performance I expected from V5 this season, they’ve just spent the last four weeks messing around with scaling compositions and weird drafts which was very out of character for them. V5 are still on the outside looking in for playoffs but a loss here and their done.

Invictus control their own fate for playoffs. A win here and they’re more than likely in, a loss suddenly complicates things for them even with only LGD remaining on the schedule.

It’s rare that I point out scheduling advantages but Invictus have been handed a gift here. Invictus haven’t played since last monday, a 2-0 win over TT. V5 had to play Wednesday vs TOP and Saturday vs FPX and have to come back with just a single day between matches. Not that Invictus are the most cerebral team or anything but a week to prepare while watching your opponent play two matches is just such a massive advantage. You could have any number of strategies prepared.

Invictus have been a remarkably inconsistent team and I was going to take a full stake position on the underdogs here but it’s very difficult to see Invictus not being well-prepared for this match. I also think they’ve got better players at every single position  (yes, including top lane TheShy’s “traditional” individual player ranking which focuses more on laning is actually #2 only to Nuguri and not many are particularly close to those two). That said, this much value is pretty tough to ignore so I’ll be taking a small position on the side and kill spreads as well for V5.

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 31.052

Time-Implied: 28.392

Underdog Win: 25.022

“Gelati” Total Projection: 28.755 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 45.44% (IG 45.16% / V5 45.71%)

Volatility Rating:  IG 0.30792 / V5 0.31179 (League Avg: 0.2999)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

UNDER 26.5 @ -115 (miniscule)

—-

Team Totals:

V5 team total OVER 9.5 @ -108 (strong)

Invictus team total UNDER 16.5 @ -111 (moderate)

 

Combined Kills / game 26.301 29.084
Combined Kills / min 0.941 0.973
Kills per win 20.002 18.004
Kills per loss 7.018 13.121
Deaths per win 8.53 7.79

 

 

(IG left, V5 right)

These two have very high combined kills per minute so they could hit this total even in a short game. If we get a longer one it’s almost a free roll. I’d lean to the over against my model’s suggestion.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 29.659 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 29.81 / 29.69

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 29.68% (IG 19.35% / V5 40%)

Volatility Rating: IG 0.14649 / V5 0.16201 (League Avg: 0.16201)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

UNDER 31:00 @ -182 (moderate)

 

IG V5
Average Game Time 29.26 30.06
Avg Game Time (in wins) 29.17 28.63
Avg Game Time (in losses) 29.367 31.017

 

Obviously these two play fast and furious and this price is actually decent but I think there’s a reasonable chance we get one game going over given the pressure and high stakes for this match for both sides. Pass.

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

V5 first tower @ +136 (strong)

UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -159 (moderate)

IG first dragon @ -204 (moderate-light)

UNDER 1.5 barons @ -244 (moderate-light)

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -278 (moderate-light)

 

What’s bizarre to me about this price is the V5 first herald is priced significantly juicer than first tower and the two are highly correlated. We’ll attack that angle for sure. If you think Invictus roll over this match then the under 12.5 towers is a very strong play. Less than 6.5% of IG’s games have gone over that total the entire season win or lose but V5 have gone over it 40% of the time primarily due to consistently landing herald and first tower.

The under neutrals are all reasonable markets to attack if you think we get the blazing fast series that this projects to be and you’re looking for a cheaper price than paying for the time total under.

For those curious, 5.66% of games go under 4.5 dragons AND over the 31 minute mark. 7.17% go over 4.5 dragons and under the 31 minute mark. Roughly a 1.5% outlier situation vs the difference in implied odds of a little over 3% between the time total under and under dragons. Take the under dragons.

 

My Picks:

 

Map Spread: V5 +1.5 maps @ +150 (0.5 units)

Moneyline: V5 +466 (0.25 units)

Map Spread: V5 -1.5 maps @ +1200 (0.1 units)

Kill Spread: Map 1 V5 +8.5 kills @ -112 (0.56 units)

Kill Spread: Map 2 V5 +8.5 kills @ -116 (0.58 units)

Kill Spread: Map 3 V5 +8.5 kills @ -132 (0.66 units)

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -159 (1.59 units)

Time Total: Map 2 UNDER 31:00 @ -175 (1.75 units)

Time Total: Map 3 UNDER 31:00 @ -145 (1.45 units)

Prop: Map 1 V5 first tower @ +136 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 V5 first tower @ +132 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 3 V5 first tower @ +129 (1 unit)

 

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

 

 

 

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