Sunday, February 28th Recap

 

Suning vs Invictus (Net: -1.805 units)

Isn’t this the most on-brand Invictus thing ever?

The first game of this series was fast and furious with cross map plays by both teams, Suning feasting top on TheShy while Invictus feasted on bottom. It turns out, in this scenario that the fed top laner trumped the fed bottom lane and Suning absorbed the pressure a little more gracefully than Invictus did. This game didn’t end up looking like it in the box score but it legitimately could have gone either way.

Game two was the opposite with Suning focusing bottom from red side, IG focusing top from blue. TheShy got baited to teleport back around the 5:50 mark to reset the wave but SofM was right there to punish it and this game was effectively over from there. Invictus actually brought it back to even but Suning had the tempo advantage and was able to stack up three drakes in the time it took to claw back into the game.

XUN wasn’t bad in this series but he got outplayed by SofM who put on an absolute clinic with  a Worlds-esque performance. It was really good to see this kind of performance from Suning who had been struggling for a vast majority of this season. Maybe a second half surge is incoming. Invictus wasn’t even that bad in this series as much as Suning was good. There were a few questionable choices made but for the most part I thought they just got outplayed by Suning in high leverage spots.

 

RareAtom vs OMG (Net: -4.42 units)

iBoy and Hang had a few really slick outplays in this series against Eric and Cold who are one of the more underrated bottom lanes in the league.

Game one was a CLASSIC RareAtom game. They were in full control and ended up “soft” throwing at baron but eventually closed it out after extending the game for a few minutes.

Game two RA decided to play into the Galio, a pick that has had success for OMG. OMG focused top side trying to camp Cube’s Gnar but Leyan read this like a book and managed to make all of these trades even or in RareAtom’s favor. RA had a pretty big lead early in this one and yet again fumbled it with a weird engage mid by FoFo and Leyan 2v2 that went south. RareAtom sort of lost the tempo advantage here and AKi was able to pick up some more kills for New in the top side and transform his Kayn. Still, it was 1 to 1 in dragons and RareAtom had amassed a 2500 gold lead in the mid game before dominating a big fight at the third dragon to up the lead to close to 4000. I legitimately don’t know how RareAtom lose this game from this point but they tried to counter Aki making a pick in the jungle on iBoy and the Galio +Rell combo ended up wiping them and alowed OMG to pick up a baron. RA would win a fight at the fifth dragon and take baron off of it. It looked like they had regained control but they grouped up for a huge engage by Cold’s Rell, got aced, and OMG ended the game.

Game three was a rout by RareAtom.

So frustrating… Game two got away from RareAtom but this is all too common an occurance. This team is so good in certain aspects of the game but they sometimes lose sight of the big picture. They don’t make many mistakes but the ones they do seem to always lose them the game. Brutal.

Victory Five vs LNG (Net: +0.12 units)

V5 tried the Seraphine mid in game one. I think the pick is extremely powerful but it doesn’t really fit the uptempo identity of V5. Interesting to see them go with a different look though, perhaps some evolution for them?

Game one was back-and-forth early on with cross map plays but Langx got caught trying to flank at the fourth dragon fight, Mole whiffed the Seraphine ult and it ended up turning into a 3-0 and baron which would lead to an ocean soul and a closed game shortly afterward.

Icon got the Seraphine in game two also against Azir but this game became more about top-to-bottom communication. A six minute 2v2 all in that pulled Ale’s teleport because the Renekton had the shove on Volibear from an early back made Langx question whether or not to TP, he didn’t and it ended up costing them as his bottom lane got cleaned up and denied a wave+. LNG would eventually snowball this game out and win it in clinical fashion.

Game two was an absolutely perfect example of why lane priority matters in League of Legends. LNG got the shove and got better recall timers off and used wave manipulation to be able to create plays. Mole and Langx got shoved in because they took the delayed back timing, LNG used this to force a play and force a decision out of V5 on whether they’d catch the waves pushing in top and mid or match it, they didn’t match it and this blew up in their face.

This series was a little out of character from V5 in general. They were clearly trying to play a more balanced look that indexed into scaling and LNG played the more V5 “looking” compositions and took advantage of it. We knew these would be lopsided games it just went against us this time around.

Liiv Sandbox vs Nongshim RedForce (Net: -6.34 units)

I think the tilt has finally set in after so many brutal beats with this Sandbox team. And I don’t mean that for my bankroll either, I mean for the team itself. The fairly YOLO plays at the beginning of this game one sort of tipped this off right away. Game two was a little closer earlier on but Nongshim were mostly in control with a gold lead the entire time.

Bay finally pieced together two good games in a row and Nongshim 2-0’d. I wonder if there’s a correlation there. He looked solid on the Azir but this was a team-wide win across the board.

I’m not sure what to think of Sandbox moving forward. They’re obviously going to be priced as a bet-on team but if they’re as visibly frustrated as we’re seeing I’m a little more skeptical to back them than I normally would be. I’ll probably keep firing, the prices are going to be too good to pass up on at this point but losing this badly to a team as poor as Nongshim is maybe an indicator to just pack it in for the rest of the season.

Gen.G vs Afreeca Freecs (Net: +3.555 units)

Game one was a patented Afreeca early game as they jumped out to a massive lead and this time they didn’t screw it up.

Game two was a very close back-and-forth game that stayed within 1000 gold through 31 minutes before Gen.G found a pick while posturing for baron and flipped that baron into a map leverage and eventually a win. Kiin solo killed Rascal a few times as the Gnar in the Camille matchup…. yea, Kiin is good.

Afreeca jumped out to an early 7-4, 2000g lead early on in game three including 4 kills for Kiin’s Irelia which is absolutely terrifying because she already wins the Gnar matchup really hard most of the time. Around the 17-18 minute mark there was this weird game state across the map with Ruler more or less staying top and splitting a few waves and a tower while the rest of the game was sort of a circus of indecision. Ruler got a crazy boost in his gold from this risky play and it jump started his late game Aphelios. Afreeca still had the gold lead around the 21 minute mark but it was much closer now and with Azir and Aphelios on the side of Gen.G this wasn’t going to get better for Afreeca unless they could engineer some sort of split push advantage. There was a crazy close fight around the 23 minute mark that would end up swinging the game in Gen.G’s favor.

Afreeca punted yet another lead with poor macro in the mid game. They didn’t allocate their strengths appropriately but it was still a very winnable game for them even just brute forcing, Gen.G just teamfought masterfully.  I have to give mad props to Gen.G who navigated this precarious mid game with some excellent team fighting but Afreeca was never really able to set up and play to their win conditions so a little responsibility on both parties here.

 

TSM vs FlyQuest (Net: pending)

100 Thieves vs Cloud 9 (Net: pending)

Immortals vs Team Liquid (Net: pending)

Golden Guardians vs Evil Geniuses (Net: pending)

Dignitas vs CLG (Net: pending)

 

 

LPL Net Total: -6.105 units

LCK Net Total: -2.785 units

LCS Net Total: (pending)

 

Daily Net Total: ??? units

 

 


 

LOL Pro League (China)

Week 7 – Day 1

 

Trends through six weeks:

 

 

 

 

Rogue Warriors +878 (+1.5 maps @ +239, -1.5 @ +1800)

vs

EDward Gaming -1667 (-1.5 maps @ -323)

 

Map ML Price: RW +526  / EDG -909

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +266 / -370)

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -116 / under -112)

Kill Spread: +9.5 @ -112 / -9.5 @ -116

Team Kill Totals: 7.5 / 16.5

Time Total: 29:00 (over -132 / under +101)

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

EDG series moneyline @ -1667 (miniscule)

 

Well… this line is out of control but it’s also right about where my model makes this market. I mentioned it in my pilot version of the look-ahead show but situations like this call for either correlation plays if you like the favorite or telling yourself the avenue through which the underdog wins and playing to it.

EDG are coming off of their first loss of the season to Invictus Gaming and Rogue Warriors did manage to get a game off of LGD. You could argue the momentum I suppose given how ridiculous this number is but I’m just staying away from sides in this market.

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 23.595

Time-Implied: 24.824

Underdog Win: 31

“Gelati” Total Projection: 24.399 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total:  47.5% (EDG 45% / RW 50%)

Volatility Rating: EDG 0.2489 / RW 0.34392 (League Avg: 0.3042)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

EDG team total UNDER 16.5 kills @ -102 (moderate)

RW team total UNDER 7.5 kills @ -123 (moderate-light)

(alt) OVER 23.5 kills @ -143 (miniscule)

(alt) UNDER 25.5 kills @ -130 (miniscule)

 

How you handicap the kills in this series largely depends on how you think EDG treat this series. If you think we see subs or if EDG clown around. After losing to Invictus I’m not sure EDG are going to be in the mood to mess around and I’d expect a clinical smashing here. Rogue Warriors are only putting up about 5.76 kills per loss and EDG 16.5 per win. I’ll take the under 25.5. There’s a case for Rogue Warriors team total under but I’m just going to take the full game and pay up a bit.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 31.556

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted:  31.59 / 31.49

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 74.32% (EDG 85% / RW 63.64%)

Volatility Rating: EDG 0.12988 / RW 0.15003 (League Avg: 0.15458)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OVER 29:00 @ -147 (strong)

 

EDG haven’t exactly been speedrunning their opposition this season, even the bad teams. Only three of their games have gone under this total one each against BLG, V5, and LGD. The other games in those series went well over. This is probably a play on the over but I’m passing.

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OVER 4.5 dragons @ +108 (moderate)

RW first tower @ +177 (moderate-light)

EDG first tower @ -244 (moderate-light)

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -286 (moderate-light)

 

RW first tower is just a price play if you’re into that but I think this is just going to be a steamrolling. I’ll take the under 12.5 towers and that’s it for this one.

 

 

 

My Picks:

 

Kill Total (alt): Map 1 UNDER 25.5 kills @ -130 (1.3 units)

Kill Total (alt): Map 2 UNDER 25.5 kills @ -132 (1.32 units)

Kill Total (alt): Map 3 UNDER 25.5 kills @ -133 (1.33 units)

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -286 (2.86 units)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -294 (2.94 units)

Prop: Map 3 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -256 (2.56 units)

 


 

FunPlus Phoenix -115 (-1.5 maps @ +242, +1.5 @ -349)

vs

JD Gaming -108 (+1.5 maps @ -317, -1.5 @ +264)

 

Map ML Price: FPX -118 / JDG -102

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over -102 / under -130)

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -120 / under -110)

Kill Spread: -0.5 @ +101 / +0.5 @ -125

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 13.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over +120 / under -156)

(lines for this series from Pinnacle)

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

FPX series moneyline @ -115 (VERY strong)

FPX -1.5 maps @ +242 (VERY strong)

FPX map moneyline @ -118 (strong)

 

Shop around because this line is anywhere from JDG favored around the -130 range to FPX favored around a similar number depending on where you look.

Obviously the big change here is Beichuan in the jungle for FPX. I thought he looked decent even though they lost 0-2 to RNG and considering he was against one of the best junglers in the world in Wei that shouldn’t be understated. The test doesn’t get much easier here vs Kanavi.

JDG won 2-1 against TT and while I’m not going to dump on any team for dropping early games to the one thing TT does well it does somewhat speak to my overall thoughts on JDG this season.

FPX have been a significantly better team this season and boast the third highest kill agnostic gold per minute in the world only behind Gen.G and DAMWON. I’ve mentioned it before but I do think this team still has room for growth and the fact that they’ve performed this well with the jungle situation is even more impressive.

Even factoring the jungle situation AND an improved JDG I can’t make this line remotely close to even. I’ll definitely be on FPX here. Great price. I like them at anything up to -200.

 

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 28.628

Time-Implied: 28.153

Underdog Win: 29

“Gelati” Total Projection: 28.401 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total:  54.64% (FPX 61.9% / JDG 47.37%)

Volatility Rating: FPX 0.25972 / JDG 0.32895 (League Avg: 0.3042)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

FPX team total OVER 13.5 kills @ -115 (strong)*

JDG team total OVER 13.5 kills @ -1115 (strong)*

(alt) OVER 25.5 kills @ -118 (light)

(alt) UNDER 27.5 kills @ -122 (light)

 

Obviously the team totals show strong but it’s because these two teams win a lot. I could see that being a play if you like one side more than the other as you could catch it in losses more often than lose it in wins. I think this number is right on the money. I’ll pass.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 31.282 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 31.7 / 31.07

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total:  37.97% (FPX 28.57% / JDG 47.37%)

Volatility Rating: FPX 0.16676 / JDG 0.17234 (League Avg: 0.15458)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

UNDER 32:00 @ -104 (strong)

 

These two teams are both very crisp and clean at snowballing wins. There’s a bit of a myth when it comes to matches between perceived good teams and a bias toward the overs for things like series map totals and time totals but generally speaking when good teams that know how to close a game play they’re very lopsided games. I love the under here.

 

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -189 (VERY VERY strong)

FPX first blood @ -116 (moderate-strong)

FPX first tower @ -120 (moderate)

OVER 1.5 barons @ +136 (moderate)

 

The over barons is an interesting play. As more and more games require a second baron to close I’m finding that market more intriguing at plus money. I don’t think this is the series for it thought considering how well these two teams, especially FPX , tend to close out games. I’m going to have plenty of FPX exposure via the side so I’ll pass on the first props and stick to the under 12.5 towers. First tower is where I’d go though.

 

 My Picks:

 

There’s a lot of movement in this market and the lines shifted while writing this. I like FPX up to -200

Moneyline: FPX +100 (1.5 units)

Map Spread: FPX -1.5 maps @ +262 (1 unit)

Time Total: Map 1 UNDER 32:00 @ -104 (1.04 units)

Time Total: Map 2 UNDER 32:00 @ -104 (1.04 units)

Time Total: Map 3 UNDER 32:00 @ -104 (1.04 units)

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -189 (1.89 units)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -189 (1.89 units)

Prop: Map 3 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -175 (1.75 units)

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

 

 

 

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