Sunday, March 14th Recap

 

Suning vs Team WE (Net: +5.805 units)

Royal Never Give Up vs JD Gaming (Net: no action)

OMG vs LNG  (Net: -3.92 units)

DAMWON vs Nongshim (Net: +1.0 units)

Hanwha Life vs Liiv Sandbox (Net: +3.61 units)

 

 

Vitality vs Misfits  (Net: -1.49 units)

Schalke vs Excel (Net: +1.0 units)

MAD Lions vs Astralis (Net: +2.255 units)

G2 vs SK Gaming (Net: no action)

Rogue vs Fnatic (Net: no action)

 

FlyQuest vs Dignitas (Net:+0.5 units)

Golden Guardians vs TSM (Net: +1.0 units)

100 Thieves vs Team Liquid (Net: +1.54 units)

CLG vs Evil Geniuses (Net: +1.72 units)

Immortals vs Cloud 9 (Net: +0.75 units)

 

LPL Net Total: +1.885 units

LCK Net Total: +4.61 units

LEC Net Total: +1.765 units

LCS Net Total: +5.51 units

 

Daily Net Total: +13.77 units

 

Last Week (March 8th-14th): +1.305 units (+0.5% ROI)

 

 

 


LOL Pro League (China)

Week 9 – Day 1

 

LPL Power Numbers through Week 8:

 

LGD Gaming +838 (+1.5 maps @ +263, -1.5 @ +1221)

vs

RareAtom -2000 (-1.5 maps @ -370, +1.5 @ -5000)

 

 

Map ML Price: LGD +268 / RA -370

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +268 / under -370)

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -110 / under -119)

Kill Spread: +9.5 @ -105 / -9.5 @ -123

Team Kill Totals: 7.5 / 16.5

Time Total: 30:00 (over +104 / under -135)

(missing most recent match for each, will update tomorrow)

(up to date)

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

LGD +1.5 maps @ +263 (VERY strong)

OVER 2.5 maps @ +268 (strong)

LGD map moneyline @ +474 (moderate)

LGD series moneyline @ +838 (moderate)

 

RareAtom could move to 11-3 and a temporary share of 1st place with a win here and with RNG and EDG remaining on the schedule could very feasibly end up with a top two position for playoffs. There’s a few ways to look at this. You could say they’ll want this game because the next two are difficult or you could maybe say this is a let-down spot after a few match wins against very difficult opponents in FPX and IG. The way RareAtom play hasn’t really changed regardless of the opponent that they’re against. They have a VERY old school Korean way of approaching the game. Lane and grind out small advantages. They’re much more in the mold of EDG or RNG albeit much less “exciting” than those two are. The individual players on this team have been doing a TREMENDOUS job in laning so they just choke people out.

The way you beat RareAtom is to snowball an early game on them. All but one of their losses were the result of this and I don’t see LGD being the ones to snowball an early lead on them. You’ll see it with the next series as well but today is one of those days where you just hold your nose and back the dogs or just don’t bet on a side. The favorites are more or less impossible to back unless you make massive adjustments or are strictly gambling. These numbers more or less say “don’t back the favorite” on the side so just don’t.

The “value” is on LGD but I’m just going to stay away from this one.  I’ll discuss it in the next match but LGD aren’t like a few of these other bottom dwelling teams. They aren’t a candidate to “punch up.” They also don’t play the style that’s good against RareAtom like, for example, TT. Unless we see something completely different from LGD I’m just not seeing it so I’m avoiding a side and will back this through other means.

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 23.317

Time-Implied: 26.126

Underdog Win: 27.094

“Gelati” Total Projection: 25.13 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 49.59% (RA 55.17% / LGD 44%)

Volatility Rating: RA 0.33115 / LGD 0.33312 (League Avg: 0.3091)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

RareAtom team total UNDER 16.5 @ -105 (VERY strong)

LGD team total OVER 7.5 @ +100 (moderate)

 

RareAtom are averaging exactly 17 kills per win against non-top ten teams this season and have only reached the 17 kill mark in 3 of those games (9 total for the season). Other than a few spike performances against the aggressive TT, eStar, and V5, all of RareAtom’s bottom half opponents have been held to 9 or fewer kills, most of them in the 5-6 range. LGD are averaging a shade over 6 kills per loss this season with only six instances of going over this total.

LGD are not a fast paced or bloody team by any stretch and almost all of the overs in RareAtom games are the result of the opponent being a very aggressive early game team. I like the under RA team total in this contest. The most likely games in this series look like they’d be a few controlled, 14-4 type games. Alternatively you could just play the full game under but I like this price better for effectively the same thing.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 31.514 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 31 / 31.29

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 56.76% (RA 65.62% / LGD 48%)

Volatility Rating: RA 0.15523 / LGD 0.16710 (League Avg: 0.16019)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OVER 30:00 @ +104 (moderate-strong)

 

RareAtom are not a fast team with only four of their wins coming in under the 30 minute mark. It’s just not the way they play. LGD aren’t exactly a team that’s going to flip coins and play aggressive early to get the action started. These should be slow, methodical RA victories.

 

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

LGD first dragon @ +138 (VERY strong)*

OVER 1.5 barons @ +180 (strong)

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -270 (moderate-light)

OVER 4.5 dragons @ -118 (light)

 

I’m avoiding LGD first drag because of how good RA are in dragon control. I like the under 12.5 towers.

 

 

My Picks:

 

Kill Total (team): Map 1 RA UNDER 16.5 kills @ -105 (1.05 units)

Kill Total (team): Map 2 RA UNDER 17.5 kills @ -128 (1.28 units)

Kill Total (team): Map 3 RA UNDER 16.5 kills @ -109 (1.09 units)

Time Total: Map 1 OVER 30:00 @ +104 (1 unit)

Time Total: Map 2 OVER 30:00 @ +100 (1 unit)

Time Total: Map 3 OVER 31:00 @ +109 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -278 (2.78 units)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -278 (2.78 units)

Prop: Map 3 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -256 (2.56 units)

 

 


Invictus Gaming -1000 (-1.5 maps @ -222, +1.5 @ -3333)

vs

ThunderTalk (TT) Gaming +566 (+1.5 maps @ +172, -1.5 @  +1304)

 

 

Map ML Price: IG -526 / TT +354

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +196 / under -263)

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -110 / under -118)

Kill Spread: -9.5 @ -108 / +9.5 @ -122

Team Kill Totals: 17.5 / 8.5

Time Total: 30:00 (over -106 / under -122)

 

(missing most recent match for each, will update tomorrow)

(up to date)

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

TT +1.5 maps @ +172 (VERY strong)

TT series moneyline @ +566 (VERY strong)

TT map moneyline @ +354 (VERY strong)

OVER 2.5 maps @ +196 (strong)

 

Invictus are one of those teams that are a bit of an enigma. They’ve always been that way and where they are frequently measures whether they’ve been more or less volatile than usual. This is the kind of game Invictus usually lose but they’re not usually in the circumstances that they’re in right now, in danger of missing playoffs. When this happened last year they turned it on and cruised until playoffs. This season their schedule is fairly easy on the way to the end with this match, and LGD but they also have what looks like will be a showdown for the final playoff spot (potentially) with Victory Five next week.

TT aren’t technically eliminated from playoffs yet but they would need a ridiculous miracle for it to happen. That hasn’t really stopped them from “doing their thing” in recent weeks. TT are all-in on the early game and sometimes they can snowball on people, other times they don’t. We saw them take games off of good teams like JDG, FPX, and RareAtom doing exactly this.

I’m a huge fan of theirs in general and can’t honestly believe how bad this roster is performing but Invictus have been far from a good team this season. They are inconsistent enough that I could see them suffering a similar fate that JDG, FPX, and RareAtom did and dropping one of these early games or even the series. They haven’t exactly been a strong early game team this season opting instead for dragons and scaling.

Invictus Tale of the Tape Dominus
106.8 Gold Diff @ 10 min -939.6
-350.7 Gold Diff @ 15 min -1333.2
-562.8 Gold Diff @ 20 min -2255.1
43.8 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 7.0
27.0 Gold Diff / min first 20 -66.4
14.6 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 168.0
1810.9 Gold /min 1734.7
5.9 Gold / min vs Avg -70.3
37.7 Gold Diff / min -183.1
0.5 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -2.5
1600.4 Kill Agnostic GPM 1578.3
24.6 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -111.4
60.3 Dragon Control % 46.2
41.4 Herald Control % 61.4
63.6 Baron Control % 41.5
10.0 Quality Wins? 1.0
66.7 % of wins as Quality 12.5

 

In short, this number is too big so just close your nose and back the underdogs. I personally don’t see it happening, I think Invictus probably clutch this one and likely their next two series out to sneak in to playoffs but for how poor they’ve been this season I can’t justify not taking a position on the severely underpriced dogs here.

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 27.942

Time-Implied: 28.271

Underdog Win: 25.487

“Gelati” Total Projection: 27.469 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 46.55% (IG 44.83% / TT 48.28%)

Volatility Rating:  IG 0.31852 / TT 0.35313 (League Avg: 0.3091)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

Invictus team total UNDER 17.5 @ -122 (very strong)

 

The average TT game looks like a 17.5 kill to 8.5 kill loss. Their wins are significantly bloodier. IG it’s similar although they score slightly higher in wins themselves. Invictus score OVER this total in 8 out of their 15 wins this season. I’m going to take the under here for a few reasons. First, I think split pushing is one of their greatest strengths and I could see them pulling TT apart at the seams later in a game and that could be a way to attack TT in this matchup that Invictus will be trying hard in. Second, I don’t think this team will be clowning around for this matchup so they might not have the ridiculous scores they normally have. Third, If TT are to get a game there’s a VERY strong chance IG don’t get to this number. This all adds up to more than enough for me despite TT’s bloody losses. There’s also a chance IG just show up and completely run this team over.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 30.53 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 30.47 / 30.73

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 48.27% (IG 34.48% / TT 62.07%)

Volatility Rating: IG 0.14247 / TT 0.15797 (League Avg: 0.16019)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none

 

IG TT
Average Game Time 29.57 31.49
Avg Game Time (in wins) 29.76 33.92
Avg Game Time (in losses) 29.367 30.566

 

This number is right on the money for me. I’d lean under if you think IG win this convincingly but no bet for me.

 

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -345 (strong)

TT first dragon @ +129 (strong)**

TT first herald @ +108 (strong)

TT first tower @ +119 (strong)

IG first dragon @ -175 (moderate)**

 

Invictus have been one of the best dragon control teams in the league and soul stacking has been their M.O. this season. TT have been a very good early game “firsts” team as we’ve discussed a number of times over the past few weeks. Plus money on first herald looks excellent for me. If you think this is a clean IG win then the under 12.5 towers isn’t a bad play either. Less than 7% of IG’s games and 17.5% of TT’s have gone OVER 12.5 towers.

 

My Picks:

(these lines moved a bit while writing this. I liked TT at a worse number than the current so obviously this makes sense here as well)

Map Spread: TT +1.5 maps @ +177 (1 unit)

Moneyline: TT +583 (0.5 units)

Map Spread: TT -1.5 maps @ +1304 (0.25 units)

Kill Total (team): Map 1 IG UNDER 17.5 kills @ -122 (1.22 units)

Kill Total (team): Map 2 IG UNDER 17.5 kills @ -119 (1.19 units)

Kill Total (team): Map 3 IG UNDER 16.5 kills @ -105 (1.05 units)

Prop: Map 1 TT first herald @ +108 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 TT first herald @ +108 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 3 TT first herald @ +108 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -345 (3.45 units)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -323 (3.23 units)

Prop: Map 3 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -294 (2.94 units)

 


PARLAYS:

I’m going to be parlaying the tower unders in both games as they show large advantages on market price.

Every combination of each maps 1 and 2 for both series under 12.5 towers.

 

RA/LGD map 1 under + IG/TT map 1 under @ -133 (0.665 units)

RA/LGD map 1 under + IG/TT map 2 under @ -128 (0.64 units)

RA/LGD map 2 under + IG/TT map 1 under @ -133 (0.665 units)

RA/LGD map 2 under + IG/TT map 2 UNDER @ -128 (0.64 units)

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

Leave a Reply