Sunday, June 6th Recap
100 Thieves vs Dignitas (Net: +2.0 units)
FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses (Net: -3.82 units)
Team Liquid vs Cloud 9 (Net: -1.0 units)
Golden Guardians vs Team Solo Mid (Net: +1.0 units)
Counter Logic Gaming vs Immortals (no action)
Daily Net Total: -1.82 units
LPL Summer 2021
Week One – Day One
I’ll be getting back into the more detailed data driven posts over the course of the next week once I get a feel for how much of it is going to apply in cases with a lot of roster changes which includes this one.
I’m also steering clear of totals and props because I want to see how the new patch and metagame develop a bit as well as which roster changes are positive and negative.
Suning Gaming -200 (-1.5 maps @ +124, +1.5 @ -667)
Invictus Gaming +154 (+1.5 maps @ -159, -1.5 @ +422)
Map Moneyline: SN -185 / IG +143
Kill Total: 26.5 (over -114 / under -114)
Kill Spread: -7.5 @ -115 / +7.5 @ -112
Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 10.5
Time Total: 31:00 (over +122 / under -159)
Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: +122 / -156 (IG favored)
Suggested Play: Invictus (strong)
Obviously the catch here is that Invictus will be playing with a new top laner until TheShy and NoFe’s visa issues are worked out. I would have played whichever of these teams was getting plus money at these numbers and I still somewhat feel that way even with the substitution. There’s a chance Bin just completely dumpsters the new kid (“Welcome to the big leagues, rook”) which is a little scary but Invictus were, in my opinion as well as the model, a better team than Suning for most of Spring despite the finishing result. I’m going to play Invictus here.
Moneyline: Invictus +154 (1 unit)
Map Spread: Invictus -1.5 maps @ +422 (0.5 units)
FunPlus Phoenix -2331 (-1.5 maps @ -395)
Rogue Warriors +1280 (+1.5 maps @ +302, -1.5 @ +3000)
Map Moneyline: FPX -2000 / RW +841
Kill Total: 25.5 (over -111 / under -116)
Kill Spread: -12.5 @ -105 / +12.5 @ -123
Team Kill Totals: 18.5 / 6.5
Time Total: 28:00 (over +114 / under -149)
Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -1001 / +569
Suggested Play: none
This is the first -12.5 kill spread that I’ve seen in the LPL this year. In series with a 10.5 or greater kill spread the favorite has covered in 16 out of 30 games however FPX specifically have covered in just 2 out of 7 games in that situation including an 0-2 loss to Victory Five in week nine last season.
My instinct is to just hold your nose and take big kill spreads like this. It’s so easy to be sloppy and one thing goes wrong and it leads to a cover but Rogue Warriors looked absolutely terrible last season and I’m not a particularly big fan of the moves they’ve made this offseason. Admittedly they should have been better than they performed last season. Individually this team has some talented players on it like Betty and Forge but they just had no strategic game whatsoever and Ziv was such a liability on the top side of the map that they were just playing on the back foot the entire season.
With numbers this large the model is almost always just going to suggest a light play on the underdogs but by percentages this is an 88/12% matchup. I could see the day one narrative as this is the most prepared that any underdogs are going to be but I’m steering clear of this one. If I had to play it it’d be the RW +12.5 kills and hope for some rust from FPX.
I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.
Check out The Gold Card Podcast and can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL
(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)