Sunday, June 27th Recap

 

Later tonight or Monday I’ll be recapping Sunday’s matches as well as getting caught up on the back log from Saturday and Friday since I was travelling this weekend.

 

LPL Net Total: —

LCK Net Total: —

LCS Net Total: —

 

Daily Net Total: —

 


 

LPL Summer 2021

Week Four – Day One

 

 

Victory Five -127 (-1.5 maps @ +233, +1.5 @ -400)

vs

Rogue Warriors +100 (+1.5 maps @ -312, -1.5 @ +283)

 

Map Moneyline: V5 -122 / RW -104

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -122 / under -105)

Kill Spread: +0.5 @ -110 / -0.5 @ -119

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 12.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -120 / under -108)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  -122 /  -103 (map), -127 / +100 (series), +234 / -314 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: none

Starters:

V5 – Invincible, Pzx, Uniboy, Kepler, Reheal

RW – 8917, icecoKe, Forge, Betty, QiuQiu

Victory Five Tale of the Tape Rogue Warriors
-2182.1 Gold Diff @ 10 min -1050.6
-1305.9 Gold Diff @ 15 min -1853.4
-325.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min -1450.0
-120.3 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -142.1
-226.8 Gold Diff / min first 20 -204.1
-14.0 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -537.6
1581.1 Gold /min (GPM) 1577.1
-197.4 Gold / min vs Avg -201.3
-356.6 Gold Diff / min -376.2
-5.0 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -5.3
1478.6 Kill Agnostic GPM 1468.1
-190.2 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -208.4
1991.6 GPM in wins 1903.9
417.0 Gold Diff per min in wins 171.9
1540.0 GPM in losses 1544.4
-434.0 Gold Diff per min in losses -431.1
-352.8 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -372.4
52.7 Win-Adjusted GPM -35.0
100.3 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -144.8
34.8 Dragon Control % 22.7
45.5 Herald Control % 27.3
18.2 Baron Control % 16.7
1.0 Quality Wins? 0.0
100.0 % of wins as Quality 0.0

 

 (These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 27.035%
2 1 25.956%
1 2 23.964%
0 2 23.045%
(Series Win): 52.991%

This is ugly. I’m going to be staying away from this one but if I had to take a position it’d be on Victory Five. They’ve at least shown us a few competent games this season while Rogue Warriors have yet to do that. Not much to say on this one. The time total over is interesting only because the average gets pushed down severely from these two teams getting whooped all the time. IF we get a competitive series here it could easily eclipse that but I’m not touching this with a ten foot pole.

My Picks:

no wagers

 


 

OMG -278 (-1.5 maps @ +123, +1.5 @ -1000)

vs

ThunderTalk (TT) Gaming +207 (+1.5 maps @ -156, -1.5 @ +550)

 

Map Moneyline: OMG -213 / TT +163

Kill Total: 27.5 (over -116 / under -112)

Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -122 / +5.5 @ -108

Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 11.5

Time Total: 30:00 (over -125 / under -103)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  -155 / +121 (map), -182 / +140 (series), +177 / -229 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: TT series moneyline and +1.5 maps

Starters:

OMG – New, AKi, Creme, Able, COLD

TT – Langx, Xiaopeng, Ye, SamD, Pudding

League Rank OMG Tale of the Tape TT League Rank
470.8 Gold Diff @ 10 min 259.1
403.1 Gold Diff @ 15 min -71.4
337.5 Gold Diff @ 20 min 137.5
-12.0 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -44.9
-10.4 Gold Diff / min first 20 -100.4
-81.4 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 95.5
1735.9 Gold /min (GPM) 1672.3
-42.6 Gold / min vs Avg -106.1
-81.4 Gold Diff / min -232.0
-1.1 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -3.2
14.0 1543.4 Kill Agnostic GPM 1539.2 15.0
14.0 -101.0 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -130.6 16.0
16.0 1877.9 GPM in wins 1893.1 14.0
16.0 207.8 Gold Diff per min in wins 311.0 11.0
14.0 1593.9 GPM in losses 1606.1 13.0
14.0 -370.6 Gold Diff per min in losses -394.9 15.0
-77.6 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -228.2
16.0 -61.0 Win-Adjusted GPM -45.8 14.0
16.0 -108.9 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -5.6 11.0
49.0 Dragon Control % 45.2
47.8 Herald Control % 44.0
43.8 Baron Control % 40.0

 

 (These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 33.274%
2 1 28.161%
1 2 20.658%
0 2 17.906%
(Series Win): 61.435%

OMG have looked really good of late off the back of dynamo rookie mid laner Creme but a look at their performance metrics suggests that maybe this isn’t all it’s cut out to be. Realistically these two teams are relatively even in a lot of the places that matter besides the win column and with that in mind I think this number is quite a bit too far along the pro-OMG spectrum. TT isn’t that bad and OMG probably isn’t this good. It’s difficult to sustain single player carry performances over time especially when teams become hip to it unless it’s truly one of the best in the world level players and even most of those have a good supporting cast.

The OMG hype is fun and I’m happy for them but this is a little too far. Back the dogs.

My Picks:

Map Spread: TT +1.5 maps @ -156 (3.12 units)

Moneyline: TT +207 (1 unit)

Map Spread: TT -1.5 maps @ +550 (0.5 units)

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

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