Sunday, June 21st Recap

 

The LCS recap will be added later tonight but here is Sunday morning’s recap and picks for LPL tomorrow morning.

 

Suning vs Rogue Warriors (Net: -2.75 units)

Game one was looking decent for Rogue Warriors before a crazy fight the drew a bunch of teleports happened bottom that went disastrously for them due to what appeared to me to be a big miscommunication. Youdang had a few mechanical misplays in this series in big spots. Game two was a slowly built up Rogue Warriors lead until a disastrous top river fight around the 23:30 mark where they dog piled into a Galio ult swung the game heavily back in favor of Suning. Rogue Warriors had a ~7500 gold lead at 23:30 and just hard punted this game. They weren’t even particularly outscaled at the time it was just a terrible fight.

It looks to me like teams have just figured out to camp bottom against Rogue Warriors as it’s happened in most of their games this season. With ZWuji behind and the constant swapping amongst the members of the top half this team doesn’t seem to be able to get any sort of momentum. I do like that they are still looking for opportunities back into games and are willing to take a fight even if they know it isn’t likely they’ll win it. Over time that will reward them with a win here or there, it’s a good habit to have. Rogue Warriors don’t really have too many redeeming characteristics other than that at this point. They’re going to take some games from people as they’ve had leads in a few already but can’t be trusted with them as we’ve seen a few times already.

SwordArt played a good series, particularly in game one on Bard but overall Suning didn’t really win this as much as Rogue Warriors lost it. Credit to them for punishing mistakes but better team aren’t going to make them as frequently.

Invictus vs EDward (Net: +0.15 units)

Invictus are so brazen and it can bring a smile to your face or completely infuriate you. With a gold deficit and outscaled they continue playing as if they have a lead. It’s a bad habit but you gotta admire the confidence.

EDG maintained a moderate gold lead throughout this game one but Invictus sort of gave them the run around with a cheeky baron call and pulling three of the seven dragons in the game. EDG have struggled with these types of scenarios in the past but kept their cool in this one and didn’t overplay their hand. People might criticize their conservative ending to this one but I appreciate their understanding that the only way they lose this one is stepping into a gigantic Orianna+Aphelios wombo.

Game two was a lopsided Invictus stomp.

Game three was fairly competitive but mostly controlled by Invictus and they had the superior scaling composition so eventually EDG were just outscaled.

It’s only one series but this was a fairly good indicator of where these two teams are at which is… very similar to last season as boring as that is. EDG are always going to struggle to beat the elite teams but it’s pretty clear that they’re able to compete and are a cut above most of the league. Invictus are only an elite team in some of their games but currently they look to be on the stronger end of their range of outcomes (which is huge).

I’d like to see Invictus utilize some of the bottom lanes we’ve seen out of teams like DAMWON or Fnatic as a means of demanding jungle attention to let their two dominant solo laners get isolated matchups to take advantage of. I doubt they will but just a thought.

 

LPL Total: -2.6 units

 

KT Rolster vs Gen.G (Net: +0.25 units)

This was a fairly close series. Competitive by both sides. A lot of good things overall. We got to see Smeb and Kuro as the KT starters in this case. Smeb had some rust to shake off but I’m confident he’ll get back up to speed with more time.

SeolHaeOne Prince vs DAMWON (Net: +2.22 units)

DAMWON are playing like an LPL team constantly fighting their way through a game and trusting their individual capability. Sometimes they get a little ahead of themselves but this is a welcome change of pace to the LCK. I absolutely love the kill lanes bottom with the Pantheon support from Beryl. It draws so much pressure to the bottom side of the map that it allows ShowMaker and Nuguri a lot of room to work in isolated matchups where they thrive. This team is red hot but they’ve faced an easy schedule to start. I still think they’ll struggle with good teams but DAMWON look sharp.

APK are… well this team is bad. It’s not surprising and I’ve written extensively about it. I think they’re almost definitely the 10th place team this season.

 

LCK Total: +2.47 units

 

Liquid vs Evil Geniuses (Net: -1.0 units)

FlyQuest vs Dignitas (Net: -1.12 units)

Golden Guardians vs Cloud 9 (Net: -0.16 units)

100 Thieves vs Immortals (Net: +1.0units)

 Parlays: +0.478 units

LCS Total: -0.802 units

 

Daily Total Net:  -0.932 units

 

 

LPL Summer 2020

Week 4 – Day 1

 

Victory Five +107 (+1.5 maps @ -294, -1.5 maps @ +284) vs

Vici Gaming -137 (-1.5 maps @ +221)

 

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -120 / under -109)

Kill Spread: +2.5 @ -118 / -2.5 @ -111

Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 12.5

Time Total: OTB

Starting Lineups:

V5 – Biubiu, Weiwei, Mole, SamD, ppgod

VG – Cube, Leyan, Forge, iBoy, Hang

Trends:

Victory Five are 2-1 (3-0 ATS) as underdogs this season

 

Finally we get to see Leyan with Vici!

I was fairly bullish on Vici coming into the season citing the reuniting of Forge and Leyan as well as continued development for the players and coach Kkoma as reasons to expect a stronger performance than their feast-or-famine Spring.

The new and improved Victory Five have been a welcome surprise to the LPL this season. It’s just nice to have another team that isn’t a “free square” on the schedule. That said, they’re being a bit overhyped at the moment. Wins against Dominus, OMG, and BiliBili are much less impressive with some context (those teams are really bad). Two of those went to three games by the way. The LGD matchup was a more impressive showing but again I also think that team is being slightly overrated at the moment as well although I wouldn’t go as far as to call them bad.

Vici has disappointed and Victory Five have vastly exceeded expectations. To me this is a classic double-swing overrated/underrated spot. You could criticize Vici’s performance thus far but they’ve faced significantly tougher competition in RNG and WE and utterly smashed BiliBili  when they faced them.

This line opened at Vici -167 and remained there on Sunday morning. This afternoon it took on some money, probably due to the Leyan announcement, on Victory Five and it pushed this number to an even more favorable position for Vici backers like myself. As an added bonus Vici have also had almost a full week since their last match.

Victory Five are an actual LPL team which is sweet. They’re still not a good one.

 

Other Markets:

cCKPG: 21.22

Time-projected: 21.53

Implied-Odds: 19.2

Underdog Win: 26.93

“G” Projected Total: 20.65

The total for this series depends largely on who you think the winner is. If you think V5 are competitive in this spot then the over isn’t a bad look but if you favor Vici then this is an under.

Vici Gaming have also earned first blood in 5 of their first 6 games. It’s not always an indicative stat on its own but if you watch Vici’s film it’s clearly a priority for them to get the ball rolling early and they’ve exceeded at it. I’m avoiding this because IG only had around a 30% first blood rate with him in the lineup last season but it’s difficult to tell whether that was a symptom of the team or chemistry or whatnot. It’s just interesting. It’s an evenly priced market and might be worth taking a stab at if you trust the Leyan/Forge synergy like I do but I won’t be putting it here for recordkeeping.

 

My Picks:

 

Moneyline: Vici Gaming -135 (2.025 units)

Spread: Vici -1.5 maps @ +228 (1 unit)

Kill Total: Map 1 UNDER 23.5 @ -109 (1.09 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 UNDER 24.5 @ -119 (1.19 units)

 

 

eStar Gaming +179 (+1.5 maps @ -175, -1.5 @ +428) vs

Royal Never Give Up -233 (-1.5 maps @ +137)

 

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -125 / under -104)

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 10.5

Kill Spread: +5.5 @ -122 / -5.5 @ -105

Time Total: OTB

Starting Lineups:

EST – Xiaobai, Wei, Fenfen, Wink, ShiauC

RNG – New, XLB, Xiaohu, Betty, Ming

Trends:

The time total has gone under in 7 out of 9 RNG games

 

Even though JDG’s execution has still been lacking, I want to give credit where it’s due to RNG for that series. At times, RNG have looked like the best team in the LPL. At others, they’ve lost to LNG… I don’t want to call them two-faced because they’ve been mostly consistent but I’d be lying if the red flags raised in that series didn’t make me cautious. eStar haven’t been perfect but they’ve been their usual aggressive selves and have had some absolutely tremendous mechanical outplays this season.

As good as RNG have been I’m still somewhat skeptical. They aren’t jumping out to large leads on people with  just a +1692 gold differential at 20 and less than half that at the 10 and 15 minute marks. eStar don’t have great differential stats either but do have a superior gold percent rating (% of games total gold) and the difference on paper between these two isn’t a large enough delta to justify the odds being this far apart.

This one is rather simple to me. I love this eStar team as an underdog at any kind of reasonable odds as it is and we’re getting a great value on them. They play the kind of explosive League of Legends that gives them the ability to beat anybody on a given day and the chops to beat all but the very best consistently. This line feels like a tremendous value to me.

 

Other markets:

cCKPG: 23.03

Time-projected: 24.16

Implied-Odds: 23.31

Underdog Win: 22.71

“G” Projected Total: 23.5

My projections agree with the book. This total is spot on.

 

My Picks:

 

Spread: eStar +1.5 maps @ -175 (1.75 units)

Moneyline: eStar +179 (0.5 units)

Spread: eStar -1.5 maps @ +428 (0.25 units)

Leave a Reply