Sunday, June 20th Recap
LGD Gaming vs JD Gaming (Net: +2.465 units)
BiliBili Gaming vs Suning Gaming (Net: -2.71 units)
Royal Never Give Up vs LNG Esports (Net: -4.78 units)
T1 vs Liiv Sandbox (Net: +2.6645 units)
Fredit Brion vs Hanwha Life Esports (Net: +0.15 units)
CLG vs Dignitas (no action)
Team Liquid vs 100 Thieves (Net: -2.66 live)
Team Solo Mid vs Cloud 9 (no action)
Immortals vs FlyQuest (Net: +1.62 units)
Evil Geniuses vs Golden Guardians (no action)
LPL Net Total: -5.025 units
LCK Net Total: +2.8145 units
LCS Net Total: -1.04 units
Daily Net Total: -3.2505 units
LPL Summer 2021
Week Three – Day One
Just a quick note. There are no model projections for the matches on Monday as I’m a little backed up logging games. They’ll be back in action tomorrow. I’ll also be shifting the LCK and LCS away from priors and more weighted toward Summer so far to more accurately account for current form and certain teams that have made roster changes.
Rogue Warriors +394 (+1.5 maps @ +109, -1.5 @ +1100)
OMG -588 (-1.5 maps @ -139, +1.5 @ -3333)
Map Moneyline: RW +280 / OMG -400
Kill Total: 24.5 (over -122 / under -106)
Kill Spread: +7.5 @ -118 / -7.5 @ -110
Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 15.5
Time Total: 31:00 (over -112 / under -116)
Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: —
Model Suggested Play: —
RW – 8917, icecoKe, Forge, ZWuji, QiuQiu
OMG – New, AKi, Creme, Able, COLD
So here’s the deal. Quantitatively the play here is Rogue Warriors and there’s really no other way to slice it. OMG have been playing very well but from a literal performance measurement perspective there’s simply no justifying this moneyline in any universe. Qualitatively, this team just straight up beat RNG and Invictus back to back and new mid laner Creme has been absolutely popping off.
We have really only seen this OMG team against top half teams (RA, IG, RNG) and they’ve been competitive in most of their games and won half of them. Rogue Warriors on the other hand picked up a win off of UltraPrime who played directly into the solo queue clown fiesta and I’d argue beat themselves and have otherwise not had a single competitive game.
|OMG||Tale of the Tape||Rogue Warriors|
|-303.1||Gold Diff @ 10 min||-998.8|
|-925.0||Gold Diff @ 15 min||-1517.5|
|-950.0||Gold Diff @ 20 min||-1940.0|
|-30.5||GPM first 20 min vs Avg||-181.8|
|-66.3||Gold Diff / min first 20||-188.0|
|-158.9||Gold Diff / min Rest of Game||-283.3|
|1696.2||Gold /min (GPM)||1580.7|
|-99.2||Gold / min vs Avg||-214.7|
|-158.9||Gold Diff / min||-313.3|
|-2.2||Gold Percent Rating (GPR)||-4.6|
|1514.7||Kill Agnostic GPM||1490.3|
|-166.7||Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min||-187.1|
|1831.8||GPM in wins||1903.9|
|76.3||Gold Diff per min in wins||171.9|
|1560.5||GPM in losses||1499.8|
|-394.1||Gold Diff per min in losses||-434.6|
|-184.2||Adjusted Gold Diff / min||-338.6|
|42.9||Dragon Control %||25.0|
|40.0||Herald Control %||40.0|
|41.7||Baron Control %||20.0|
OMG have showed better in their losing games while Rogue Warriors are putting up worse gold per minute in loss numbers than Golden Guardians have in Spring. OMG have better overall economy and are performing significantly better than their Spring version thus far particularly in adjusted stats (not published here, missing some games).
I’m not taking a side here. Rogue Warriors are the worst team in the league and likely will finish in a tier of their own unless somebody joins them. I’d pencil them in for maybe 3-6 wins over the course of Summer and it’s anybody’s pick where those will be. That said, I can’t fault people for taking one of those shots here at this price. It’s also tough to gauge how to attack the other derivative markets here because I’m not sure if the unders are suggested just because RW have been smashed in almost every game.
Invictus Gaming -435 (-1.5 maps @ -122, +1.5 @ -2000)
Ultra Prime +310 (+1.5 maps @ -105, -1.5 @ +807)
Map Moneyline: IG -312 / UP +230
Kill Total: 25.5 (over -106 / under -122)
Kill Spread: -8.5 @ -110 / +8.5 @ -118
Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 7.5
Time Total: 30:00 (over -127 / under -103)
Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: —
Model Suggested Play: —
IG – Neny, XUN, Rookie, Puff, Baolan
UP – Zs, H4cker, Xiaocaobao, Smlz, ShiauC
Well, I’ve been criticizing the Invictus bottom lane this season and the coaching staff seems to agree. Puff and Baolan are stepping in presumably to save the day. Since Baolan has stepped down from the full time role, every single time he’s been subbed in it has turned into an extended stay on the main roster and the team has received an overall boost. The times we’ve seen him in the past two years he still performs at a very strong level thought definitely not at the elite level he was at many years ago. The power of friendship returns! In all seriousness I think this should probably help Invictus. The top half of the map has been playing very well especially rookie top laner Neny. All they need is for the bottom lane to do their job.
UltraPrime showed a very competitive series against FunPlus in their opener but have looked completely toothless since then. It’s nitpicking but I do think they look better with Xiaocaobao in the lineup than Irma but I’m still not sure what to make of this team. H4cker has been the best player on the team so far, returning somewhat to his form from two years ago but I don’t think that’s necessarily a flattering thing for the rest of this team.
Invictus show smash here even with the lineup change. I do think UltraPrime are probably better than they’ve shown in their past few but I also think Invictus will look better than they have with this shift in the bottom lane. This, of course, assumes that this bottom lane performs better which is no guarantee.
Map Spread: Invictus -1.5 maps @ -122 (2.44 units)
I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.
Check out The Gold Card Podcast and can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL
(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)