Sunday, June 13th Recap
LGD Gaming vs UltraPrime (Net: -3.02 units)
Team WE vs ThunderTalk Gaming (Net: -1.85 units)
DAMWON Kia Gaming vs KT Rolster (Net: -2.5 units)
Afreeca Freecs vs DRX (Net: +2.745 units)
Schalke 04 vs Excel (no action)
Team Vitality vs Misfits (Net: +2.7 units)
MAD Lions vs Astralis (Net: +1.0 units)
SK Gaming vs G2 Esports (Net: +0.5 units)
Rogue vs Fnatic (no action)
LPL Total: -4.87 units
LCK Total: +0.245
LEC Total: +4.2 units
LCS Total: pending
Daily Net Total: pending
LPL Summer 2021
Week Two – Day One
Invictus Gaming -714 (-1.5 maps @ -172, +1.5 @ -3333)
vs
OMG +442 (+1.5 maps @ +133, -1.5 @ +1200)
Map Moneyline: IG -400 / OMG +281
Kill Total: 25.5 (over -111 / under -116)
Kill Spread: -7.5 @ -125 / +7.5 @ -103
Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 8.5
Time Total: 30:00 (over +102 / under -132)
Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -482 / +327 (map), -1217 / +627 (series), -200 / +153 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)
Model Suggested Play: Invictus -1.5 maps (light)
Starters:
IG – Neny, XUN, Rookie, Wink, Lucas
OMG – New, AKi, Creme, Able, Cold
Invictus have had a tough first two outings against EDG (0-2 but should have won game two) and Suning (2-1 win). OMG will represent a significant downgrade in level of competition. I was hoping the new additions of Creme and Able would help this team out a bit but honestly OMG look exactly the same so far. Don’t get cute just back the favorites. Boring I know.
My Picks:
Map Spread: Invictus -1.5 maps @ -172 (3.44 units)
RareAtom +229 (+1.5 maps @ -133, -1.5 @ +623)
vs
EDward Gaming -312 (-1.5 maps @ +104, +1.5 @ -1250)
Map Moneyline: RA +211 / EDG -286
Kill Total: 24.5 (over -112 / under -116)
Kill Spread: +6.5 @ -105 / -6.5 @ -122
Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 15.5
Time Total: 32:00 (over +100 / under -130)
Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -135 / +105 (map), -148 / +115 (series), +207 / -277 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)
Model Suggested Play: RareAtom series ML, +1.5, -1.5
Starters:
RA – Cube, Leyan, FoFo, iBoy, Hang
EDG – Flandre, Jiejie, Scout, Viper, Meiko
I mentioned after their last series that RareAtom probably should have lost 0-2 to LGD but they did manage to bring it back. They also handled OMG relatively easily. This will be an obvious step up in level of competition. EDG still aren’t wowing anybody in the performance metrics but that hasn’t been the case with them all year. Still, at some point they’re going to stop getting the better of all of these late game 50/50 situations. It’s one thing to be adept in this stage of the game but another to be the benefactor of variance in as many ways as EDG have over the course of the 2021 season. Maybe it’ll never come back to bite them, maybe it will who knows.
I’m going to be playing RareAtom here. I’m not quite as bearish on EDG as the model is but in general I do agree that they are slightly over exceeding expectations in terms of wins relative to their literal performance data. I don’t think this should be quite as close to even money as the model does but I do think RareAtom are worth a play here.
My Picks:
Map Spread: RareAtom +1.5 maps @ -133 (2.66 units)
Moneyline: RareAtom +229 (0.5 units)
Map Spread: RareAtom -1.5 maps @ +623 (0.25 units)
I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.
Check out The Gold Card Podcast and can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL
(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)
