UPDATE: Both LPL Matches for July 26th have been rescheduled due to the typhoon. 

TT vs UP will be played on August 5th, RNG vs RA on July 31st.

Sunday, July 25th Recap

 

LGD Gaming vs LNG Esports (Net: +0.47 units)

Victory Five vs OMG (Net: +0.67 units)

TOP Esports vs Invictus Gaming (post poned)

 

Gen.G vs Afreeca (Net: +2.0 units)

Hanwha Life vs Fredit Brion  (Net: -1.7 units)

 

 

Team Liquid vs Golden Guardians (Net: +2.24 units)

Immortals vs 100 Thieves (Net: -1.62 units)

TSM vs Cloud 9 (Net: +0.62 units)

Evil Geniuses vs CLG (Net: +0.40 units)

 FlyQuest vs Dignitas (Net: -1.0 units)

 

 

LPL Net Total: +1.14 units

LCK Net Total: +0.3 units

LCS Net Total: +0.642 units 

 

Daily Net Total: +2.082 units

 

 


LPL Summer 2021

Week Eight – Day One

 

(lines from Pinnacle)

 

ThunderTalk (TT) Gaming +116 (+1.5 maps @ -242, -1.5 @ +320)

vs

UltraPrime -141 (-1.5 maps @ +194, +1.5 @ -421)

 

Map Moneyline: TT +113 / UP -137

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -121 / under -110)

Kill Spread: +3.5 @ -120 / -3.5 @ -110

Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 13.5

Time Total: 30:00 (over -136 / under +103)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -123 / +101 (map), -130 / +107 (series), -360 / +323 (+1.5 maps / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play:ThunderTalk series moneyline and -1.5 maps

Starters:

TT –

UP –

Trends
UP as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) TT as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 1 0 -244 Matches as Underdogs 1 10 +606
Against Map Spread 0 1 +139 Against Map Spread 3 8 +102
Against Kill Spread 2 1 5.5 Against Kill Spread 11 13 +9
Kill Totals 1 2 26.50 Kill Totals 10 14 25.68
Team Kill Totals 3 0 14.50 Team Kill Totals 11 13 8.59
Game Time Totals 2 1 31.0 Game Time Totals 12 12 29.82
Dragons over 4.5 3 0 Dragons over 4.5 11 13
Towers over 11.5 1 2 Towers over 11.5 12 12

 

League Rank UP Tale of the Tape TT League Rank
14 -506.7 Gold Diff @ 10 min -160.1 10
14 -1257.5 Gold Diff @ 15 min -542.3 11
13 -1600.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min -950.0 14
-10.4 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -71.5
12 -54.7 Gold Diff / min first 20 -119.6 15
16 -194.9 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -202.8 17
14 1716.4 Gold /min (GPM) 1656.3 16
-71.8 Gold / min vs Avg -132.0
14 -166.6 Gold Diff / min -253.3 16
14 -2.3 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -3.5 16
13 1562.7 Kill Agnostic GPM 1519.5 16
13 -88.3 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -149.6 16
11 1938.2 GPM in wins 1862.4 17
9 347.5 Gold Diff per min in wins 216.8 16
9 1635.8 GPM in losses 1594.5 14
13 -353.6 Gold Diff per min in losses -394.3 14
-159.7 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -246.4
11 -13.1 Win-Adjusted GPM -88.8 17
9 24.1 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -106.6 16
11 47.3 Dragon Control % 42.6 15
16 33.3 Herald Control % 46.0 11
15 36.6 Baron Control % 33.3 16
5.0 Quality Wins? #N/A
62.5 % of wins as Quality #N/A

 

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
0 2 27.778%
1 2 26.275%
2 1 23.578%
2 0 22.368%
(Series Win): 45.946%

 

So here’s the deal. Both of these teams are bad. Both have shown some signs of life here or there and aren’t quite Victory Five level terrible but I tend to like the underdogs in these matchups unless I can make a compelling case otherwise. I think ThunderTalk have the correct idea on how to play and better players overall but fumble execution fairly often. It’s a bit of a soft case but I do think they’re the play here.

TT first blood is also a nice look with almost double digit edge on the market price but first herald at anything better than -150ish is worth a look, it’s off the board almost everywhere I’ve looked for now though.

My Picks:

Moneyline: ThunderTalk +113 (1 unit)

Map Spread: ThunderTalk -1.5 maps @ +320 (0.25 units)

Prop: Map 1 TT first blood @ -108 (1.08 units)

Prop: Map 2 TT first blood @ -108 (1.08 units)

(pending potentially first herald we’ll see, I’ll update this)

 

 

 


 

 

(lines from Pinnacle)

RareAtom +167 (+1.5 maps @ -180, -1.5 @ +430)

vs

Royal Never Give Up -207 (-1.5 maps @ +147, +1.5 @ -593)

 

Map Moneyline: RA +139 / RNG -170

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -119 / under -112)

Kill Spread: +5.5 @ -126 / -5.5 @ -105

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 15.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -124 / under -116)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -101 / -120 (map), +103 / -125 (series), -303 / +238 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: RareAtom series moneyline, +1.5 maps, and -1.5 maps

Starters:

RA –

RNG –

Trends
RNG as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) RA as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 6 3 -1178 Matches as Underdogs 3 2 +98
Against Map Spread 5 4 -49 Against Map Spread 4 1 -251
Against Kill Spread 11 10 7.2 Against Kill Spread 6 7 +5
Kill Totals 13 8 25.83 Kill Totals 5 8 25.50
Team Kill Totals 11 10 15.72 Team Kill Totals 7 6 11.10
Game Time Totals 8 13 30.0 Game Time Totals 6 7 31.20
Dragons over 4.5 8 13 Dragons over 4.5 6 7
Towers over 11.5 11 10 Towers over 11.5 4 9

 

 

League Rank RNG Tale of the Tape RA League Rank
5 449.2 Gold Diff @ 10 min 644.0 3
3 1734.6 Gold Diff @ 15 min 604.8 5
3 2437.5 Gold Diff @ 20 min 85.6 5
60.1 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 29.5
3 64.5 Gold Diff / min first 20 80.0 6
8 361.5 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 296.0 10
3 1874.9 Gold /min (GPM) 1816.2 8
86.6 Gold / min vs Avg 27.9
4 114.6 Gold Diff / min 86.2 6
4 1.6 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 1.2 6
2 1662.4 Kill Agnostic GPM 1630.5 6
3 88.4 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 59.2 5
4 1988.3 GPM in wins 1935.2 12
4 361.3 Gold Diff per min in wins 316.9 12
2 1689.3 GPM in losses 1607.9 12
6 -289.0 Gold Diff per min in losses -317.6 9
121.5 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 93.1
4 37.1 Win-Adjusted GPM -16.0 12
4 37.8 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -6.5 12
12 47.2 Dragon Control % 56.8 4
4 60.3 Herald Control % 63.1 2
7 55.0 Baron Control % 53.7 8
11.0 Quality Wins? 12.0
61.1 % of wins as Quality 57.1

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 27.177%
2 1 26.019%
1 2 23.890%
0 2 22.913%
(Series Win): 53.196%

 

The model rates these two a lot closer than the court of public opinion does because of price memory and results. Statistically these teams are VERY similar across the board. They both excel in the same things with the only real difference being RNG’s more explosive 15-20 minute range burst and RA slightly better in overal neutral objective control.

I gotta tell you all something… I agree with the model here. RNG are rounding into form sure but that trending data is factored in and weighted in this model. RareAtom are good and frankly I think the mid/jungle duo of Leyan and FoFo has been far superior to Wei and Cryin this season and that’s going to be an edge for RareAtom in this contest. I also think both of these bottom lanes can be good with RA being more volatile and RNG being a little more narrow in terms of what champions GALA excels on.

This really should be a hard fought match. I think RNG deserve to be favorites but that this is just a bit heavy handed even if you’re giving some benefit of the doubt.

RareAtom have been better at getting the ball rolling with first tower and blood by a lot this season. Both are huge edges on market price and I like both, preferring the first tower slightly more. RareAtom first dragon is also a decent play here at even money but I’m going to be more selective and stick to RNG first tower.

My Picks:

Map Spread: RareAtom +1.5 maps @ -180 (1.8 units)

Moneyline: RareAtom +167 (0.5 units)

Map Spread: RareAtom -1.5 maps @ +430 (0.25 units)

Prop: Map 1 RNG first tower @ -147 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 RNG first tower @ -147 (1 unit)

 

  


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and you can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

 

Leave a Reply