Sunday, June 18th Recap
LNG vs OMG (Net: -0.03 units)
Suning vs JDG (no action)
Edward Gaming vs Royal Never Give Up (Net: -1.27 units)
Brion vs DRX (Net: +0.345 units)
Nongshim vs KT Rolster (Net: -5.41 units)
CLG vs Immortals (Net: +2.0 units)
Evil Geniuses vs Dignitas (Net: +1.0 units)
FlyQuest vs 100 Thieves (Net: +1.0 units)
TSM vs Liquid (Net: -1.0 units)
Golden Guardians vs Cloud 9 (Net: -0.22 units)
Parlay: +1.0 units
LPL Net Total: -1.3 units
LCK Net Total: -5.06 units
LCS Net Total: +3.781 units
Daily Net Total: -3.583 units
LPL Summer 2021
Week Seven – Day One
ThunderTalk (TT) Gaming +171 (+1.5 maps @ -192, -1.5 @ +446)
vs
Rogue Warriors -222 (-1.5 maps @ +150, +1.5 @ -714)
Map Moneyline: TT +145 / RW -185
Kill Total: 24.5 (over -125 / under -104)
Kill Spread: +3.5 @ -112 / -3.5 @ -116
Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 14.5
Time Total: 30:00 (over -141 / under +108)
Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: +100 / -126 (map), +119 / -153 (series), -268 / +201 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)
Model Suggested Play: TT series moneyline, +1.5, and -1.5 maps
Starters:
TT – Langx, Xiaopeng, Ye, SamD, Pudding
RW – Zdz, Xiaohao, Forge, Betty, QiuQiu
| Trends | |||||||||||
| RW as Favorites | Win/Over | Loss/Under | Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) | TT as Underdogs | Win/Over | Loss/Under | Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) | ||||
| Matches as Favorites | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | Matches as Underdogs | 0 | 10 | +650 | ||||
| Against Map Spread | 0 | 0 | Against Map Spread | 2 | 8 | +132 | |||||
| Against Kill Spread | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | Against Kill Spread | 9 | 13 | +9 | ||||
| Kill Totals | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | Kill Totals | 8 | 14 | 25.80 | ||||
| Team Kill Totals | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | Team Kill Totals | 9 | 13 | 8.20 | ||||
| Game Time Totals | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | Game Time Totals | 10 | 12 | 29.80 | ||||
| Dragons over 4.5 | 0 | 0 | Dragons over 4.5 | 10 | 12 | ||||||
| Towers over 11.5 | 0 | 0 | Towers over 11.5 | 12 | 10 | ||||||
| League Rank | Rogue Warriors | Tale of the Tape | TT | League Rank |
| 12 | -307.0 | Gold Diff @ 10 min | -545.7 | 15 |
| 12 | -313.2 | Gold Diff @ 15 min | -1831.3 | 17 |
| 12 | 512.5 | Gold Diff @ 20 min | -2075.0 | 16 |
| -33.6 | GPM first 20 min vs Avg | -164.4 | ||
| 11 | -110.4 | Gold Diff / min first 20 | -127.1 | 16 |
| 14 | -61.2 | Gold Diff / min Rest of Game | -251.9 | 17 |
| 15 | 1678.7 | Gold /min (GPM) | 1643.0 | 16 |
| -111.0 | Gold / min vs Avg | -146.7 | ||
| 15 | -206.2 | Gold Diff / min | -281.4 | 16 |
| 15 | -2.9 | Gold Percent Rating (GPR) | -3.9 | 16 |
| 15 | 1531.0 | Kill Agnostic GPM | 1516.5 | 16 |
| 15 | -125.0 | Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min | -163.4 | 16 |
| 15 | 1894.8 | GPM in wins | 1885.8 | 17 |
| 17 | 198.6 | Gold Diff per min in wins | 283.1 | 15 |
| 17 | 1564.3 | GPM in losses | 1594.5 | 14 |
| 17 | -420.5 | Gold Diff per min in losses | -394.3 | 14 |
| -203.1 | Adjusted Gold Diff / min | -278.4 | ||
| 15 | -55.3 | Win-Adjusted GPM | -64.3 | 17 |
| 17 | -124.1 | Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min | -39.5 | 15 |
| 16 | 33.6 | Dragon Control % | 40.0 | 15 |
| 11 | 44.2 | Herald Control % | 42.9 | 12 |
| 14 | 40.6 | Baron Control % | 30.8 | 16 |
| 4.0 | Quality Wins? | #N/A | ||
| 44.4 | % of wins as Quality | #N/A |
(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)
Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):
| Series Outcomes | ||
| Wins | Losses | Probability |
| 2 | 0 | 30.229% |
| 2 | 1 | 27.218% |
| 1 | 2 | 22.286% |
| 0 | 2 | 20.267% |
| (Series Win): | 57.447% | |
This is the first time Rogue Warriors have been favored since January 15th, week two against eStar. They’ve been favored just seven times total in 2020 and 2021 with two wins one against eStar in Summer 2020, one against arguably the worst team of all time in Spring 2020 Victory Five. Just a tidbit for you. This doesn’t really matter that much.
Rogue Warriors have picked up a few wins and built some momentum. Their confidence is at a three year high…. but this team still isn’t playing great League of Legends. I decided to filter and view just Rogue Warriors wins and see how the team would grade out in just their nine wins. Below is how the “9-0 Rogue Warriors” would rank in the LPL as well as their Tale of the Tape.
| 9-0 Rogue Warriors | ||
| Team | Power # | Rank |
| EDG | 1.750466999 | 1 |
| TOP | 0.8652571426 | 2 |
| FunPlus | 0.6276643676 | 3 |
| JDG | 0.3950216702 | 4 |
| Invictus | 0.3681806148 | 5 |
| Rogue Warriors | 0.3336101085 | 6 |
| WE | 0.2418897649 | 7 |
| Royal Never GU | 0.2286070411 | 8 |
| Vici | 0.1889877697 | 9 |
| BiliBili | 0.08321195841 | 10 |
| Suning | -0.0212996472 | 11 |
| LNG | -0.2167173983 | 12 |
| LGD | -0.3956772758 | 13 |
| eStar | -0.5746943448 | 14 |
| OMG | -0.778439537 | 15 |
| Dominus | -1.351650916 | 16 |
| Victory Five | -1.744418318 | 17 |
| League Rank | Rogue Warriors | Tale of the Tape | TT | League Rank |
| 12 | -316.2 | Gold Diff @ 10 min | -545.7 | 15 |
| 11 | -58.8 | Gold Diff @ 15 min | -1831.3 | 17 |
| 3 | -12.5 | Gold Diff @ 20 min | -2075.0 | 16 |
| 5.0 | GPM first 20 min vs Avg | -166.8 | ||
| 11 | 5.9 | Gold Diff / min first 20 | -127.1 | 16 |
| 13 | 251.1 | Gold Diff / min Rest of Game | -251.9 | 17 |
| 8 | 1813.7 | Gold /min (GPM) | 1643.0 | 16 |
| 16.0 | Gold / min vs Avg | -154.6 | ||
| 8 | 58.0 | Gold Diff / min | -281.4 | 16 |
| 8 | 0.8 | Gold Percent Rating (GPR) | -3.9 | 16 |
| 11 | 1604.6 | Kill Agnostic GPM | 1516.5 | 16 |
| 9 | 24.2 | Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min | -163.4 | 16 |
| 15 | 1894.8 | GPM in wins | 1885.8 | 17 |
| 17 | 198.6 | Gold Diff per min in wins | 283.1 | 15 |
| 17 | 1448.6 | GPM in losses | 1594.5 | 14 |
| 17 | -574.6 | Gold Diff per min in losses | -394.3 | 14 |
| 45.5 | Adjusted Gold Diff / min | -293.9 | ||
| 15 | -55.3 | Win-Adjusted GPM | -64.3 | 17 |
| 17 | -124.1 | Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min | -39.5 | 15 |
| 7 | 51.1 | Dragon Control % | 40.0 | 16 |
| 6 | 54.5 | Herald Control % | 42.9 | 12 |
| 3 | 64.3 | Baron Control % | 30.8 | 16 |
| 4.0 | Quality Wins? | #N/A | ||
| 44.4 | % of wins as Quality | #N/A |
So why am I showing you this? To illustrate that this team still isn’t playing particularly well even in wins. Improved? Yes. Good? No.
So how do we handicap this… it’s tricky because I do think this team is probably going to improve. Since switching to Xiaohao and settling in on this lineup they’ve been confidence, aggressive, and willing to at least make plays and in the current state of the game that matters more than most economic measures. It’s about landing haymakers.
Keep in mind that the model weights trending performance so even considering this revamped Rogue Warriors this is still a heavy handed number. It’s the most they’ve been favored by in a match since Doinb was on the team. I almost feel obligated to fade them at this price even though I do think they’ll probably win this match. Hold your nose and take the dogs.
My Picks:
Moneyline: TT +147 (1 unit)
Map Spread: TT -1.5 maps @ +446 (0.25 units)
Victory Five +462 (+1.5 maps @ +143, -1.5 @ +1100)
vs
Invictus Gaming -769 (-1.5 maps @ -185)
Map Moneyline: V5 +321 / IG -455
Kill Total: 25.5 (over -122 / under -108)
Kill Spread: +8.5 @ -114 / -8.5 @ -115
Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 16.5
Time Total: 30:00 (over +100 / under -130)
Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: +357 / -520 (map), +694 / -1483 (series), +167 / -219 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)
Model Suggested Play: Invictus series moneyline and -1.5 maps (light)
Starters:
V5 – Aliez, Pzx, Uniboy, Kepler, Reheal
IG – TheShy, XUN, Rookie, Wink, Lucas
| Trends | |||||||||||
| IG as Favorites | Win/Over | Loss/Under | Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) | V5 as Underdogs | Win/Over | Loss/Under | Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) | ||||
| Matches as Favorites | 1 | 2 | -686 | Matches as Underdogs | 0 | 9 | +657 | ||||
| Against Map Spread | 1 | 2 | -161 | Against Map Spread | 1 | 8 | +95 | ||||
| Against Kill Spread | 1 | 7 | 8.8 | Against Kill Spread | 7 | 12 | +9 | ||||
| Kill Totals | 5 | 3 | 25.83 | Kill Totals | 8 | 11 | 25.83 | ||||
| Team Kill Totals | 3 | 5 | 16.50 | Team Kill Totals | 7 | 12 | 8.28 | ||||
| Game Time Totals | 6 | 2 | 29.7 | Game Time Totals | 10 | 9 | 29.67 | ||||
| Dragons over 4.5 | 4 | 4 | Dragons over 4.5 | 8 | 11 | ||||||
| Towers over 11.5 | 4 | 4 | Towers over 11.5 | 8 | 11 | ||||||
| League Rank | Invictus | Tale of the Tape | Victory Five | League Rank |
| 4 | 299.7 | Gold Diff @ 10 min | -2061.3 | 17 |
| 8 | 263.5 | Gold Diff @ 15 min | -1169.7 | 14 |
| 11 | 925.0 | Gold Diff @ 20 min | -363.7 | 17 |
| -119.2 | GPM first 20 min vs Avg | -201.1 | ||
| 15 | -21.9 | Gold Diff / min first 20 | -180.5 | 17 |
| 1 | 829.8 | Gold Diff / min Rest of Game | 341.2 | 11 |
| 11 | 1790.5 | Gold /min (GPM) | 1590.6 | 17 |
| 1.7 | Gold / min vs Avg | -198.1 | ||
| 12 | -52.0 | Gold Diff / min | -361.2 | 17 |
| 12 | -0.8 | Gold Percent Rating (GPR) | -5.1 | 17 |
| 9 | 1613.3 | Kill Agnostic GPM | 1487.6 | 17 |
| 12 | -13.3 | Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min | -213.0 | 17 |
| 2 | 1999.8 | GPM in wins | 1991.6 | 4 |
| 11 | 308.4 | Gold Diff per min in wins | 417.0 | 1 |
| 6 | 1661.6 | GPM in losses | 1570.6 | 16 |
| 5 | -273.7 | Gold Diff per min in losses | -400.1 | 15 |
| -47.4 | Adjusted Gold Diff / min | -356.6 | ||
| 2 | 49.7 | Win-Adjusted GPM | 41.5 | 4 |
| 11 | -14.3 | Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min | 94.3 | 1 |
| 5 | 55.8 | Dragon Control % | 32.2 | 17 |
| 1 | 68.4 | Herald Control % | 42.1 | 13 |
| 5 | 60.0 | Baron Control % | 13.0 | 17 |
| 3.0 | Quality Wins? | 1.0 | ||
| 37.5 | % of wins as Quality | 100.0 |
(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)
Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):
| Series Outcomes | ||
| Wins | Losses | Probability |
| 2 | 0 | 65.610% |
| 2 | 1 | 24.932% |
| 1 | 2 | 5.848% |
| 0 | 2 | 3.610% |
| (Series Win): | 90.542% | |
This is exactly the kind of series Invictus lose … but you can’t in good conscience actually go based on that alone. It’s really easy to meme on this team but Victory Five are B.A.D. BAD. Weird things sometimes happen on Monday’s in the LPL which has been a silly curse for years but I have a hard time not backing Invictus here. Don’t get cute.
If you are interested in the dogs I think playing derivatives is the best way to do it. V5 first blood and first herald showed decent edges on the market price given Invictus’ strengths/weaknesses. The over 12.5 towers isn’t a bad look either given how sloppy IG have been at times this season. Over 36% of their games have dgone over that total vs implied odds of 24.27%.
My Picks:
Map Spread: Invictus -1.5 maps @ -185 (1.85 units)
I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.
Check out The Gold Card Podcast and you can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL
(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)
