Sunday, June 18th Recap

 

LNG vs OMG (Net: -0.03 units)

Suning vs JDG (no action)

Edward Gaming vs Royal Never Give Up (Net: -1.27 units)

 

Brion vs DRX (Net: +0.345 units)

Nongshim vs KT Rolster (Net: -5.41 units)

 

CLG vs Immortals (Net: +2.0 units)

Evil Geniuses vs Dignitas (Net: +1.0 units)

FlyQuest vs 100 Thieves (Net: +1.0 units)

TSM vs Liquid (Net: -1.0 units)

Golden Guardians vs Cloud 9 (Net: -0.22 units)

Parlay: +1.0 units

 

LPL Net Total: -1.3 units

LCK Net Total: -5.06 units

LCS Net Total: +3.781 units

Daily Net Total: -3.583 units

 

 

 


LPL Summer 2021

Week Seven – Day One

 

ThunderTalk (TT) Gaming  +171 (+1.5 maps @ -192, -1.5 @ +446)

vs

Rogue Warriors -222 (-1.5 maps @ +150, +1.5 @ -714)

 

Map Moneyline: TT +145 / RW -185

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -125 / under -104)

Kill Spread: +3.5 @ -112 / -3.5 @ -116

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 14.5

Time Total: 30:00 (over -141 / under +108)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: +100 / -126 (map), +119 / -153 (series), -268 / +201 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: TT series moneyline, +1.5, and -1.5 maps

Starters:

TT – Langx, Xiaopeng, Ye, SamD, Pudding

RW – Zdz, Xiaohao, Forge, Betty, QiuQiu

Trends
RW as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) TT as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 0 0 #DIV/0! Matches as Underdogs 0 10 +650
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 2 8 +132
Against Kill Spread 0 0 #DIV/0! Against Kill Spread 9 13 +9
Kill Totals 0 0 #DIV/0! Kill Totals 8 14 25.80
Team Kill Totals 0 0 #DIV/0! Team Kill Totals 9 13 8.20
Game Time Totals 0 0 #DIV/0! Game Time Totals 10 12 29.80
Dragons over 4.5 0 0 Dragons over 4.5 10 12
Towers over 11.5 0 0 Towers over 11.5 12 10

 

 

League Rank Rogue Warriors Tale of the Tape TT League Rank
12 -307.0 Gold Diff @ 10 min -545.7 15
12 -313.2 Gold Diff @ 15 min -1831.3 17
12 512.5 Gold Diff @ 20 min -2075.0 16
-33.6 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -164.4
11 -110.4 Gold Diff / min first 20 -127.1 16
14 -61.2 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -251.9 17
15 1678.7 Gold /min (GPM) 1643.0 16
-111.0 Gold / min vs Avg -146.7
15 -206.2 Gold Diff / min -281.4 16
15 -2.9 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -3.9 16
15 1531.0 Kill Agnostic GPM 1516.5 16
15 -125.0 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -163.4 16
15 1894.8 GPM in wins 1885.8 17
17 198.6 Gold Diff per min in wins 283.1 15
17 1564.3 GPM in losses 1594.5 14
17 -420.5 Gold Diff per min in losses -394.3 14
-203.1 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -278.4
15 -55.3 Win-Adjusted GPM -64.3 17
17 -124.1 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -39.5 15
16 33.6 Dragon Control % 40.0 15
11 44.2 Herald Control % 42.9 12
14 40.6 Baron Control % 30.8 16
4.0 Quality Wins? #N/A
44.4 % of wins as Quality #N/A

 

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 30.229%
2 1 27.218%
1 2 22.286%
0 2 20.267%
(Series Win): 57.447%

 

This is the first time Rogue Warriors have been favored since January 15th, week two against eStar. They’ve been favored just seven times total in 2020 and 2021 with two wins one against eStar in Summer 2020, one against arguably the worst team of all time in Spring 2020 Victory Five.  Just a tidbit for you. This doesn’t really matter that much.

Rogue Warriors have picked up a few wins and built some momentum. Their confidence is at a three year high…. but this team still isn’t playing great League of Legends. I decided to filter and view just Rogue Warriors wins and see how the team would grade out in just their nine wins. Below is how the “9-0 Rogue Warriors” would rank in the LPL as well as their Tale of the Tape.

9-0 Rogue Warriors
Team Power # Rank
EDG 1.750466999 1
TOP 0.8652571426 2
FunPlus 0.6276643676 3
JDG 0.3950216702 4
Invictus 0.3681806148 5
Rogue Warriors 0.3336101085 6
WE 0.2418897649 7
Royal Never GU 0.2286070411 8
Vici 0.1889877697 9
BiliBili 0.08321195841 10
Suning -0.0212996472 11
LNG -0.2167173983 12
LGD -0.3956772758 13
eStar -0.5746943448 14
OMG -0.778439537 15
Dominus -1.351650916 16
Victory Five -1.744418318 17

 

League Rank Rogue Warriors Tale of the Tape TT League Rank
12 -316.2 Gold Diff @ 10 min -545.7 15
11 -58.8 Gold Diff @ 15 min -1831.3 17
3 -12.5 Gold Diff @ 20 min -2075.0 16
5.0 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -166.8
11 5.9 Gold Diff / min first 20 -127.1 16
13 251.1 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -251.9 17
8 1813.7 Gold /min (GPM) 1643.0 16
16.0 Gold / min vs Avg -154.6
8 58.0 Gold Diff / min -281.4 16
8 0.8 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -3.9 16
11 1604.6 Kill Agnostic GPM 1516.5 16
9 24.2 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -163.4 16
15 1894.8 GPM in wins 1885.8 17
17 198.6 Gold Diff per min in wins 283.1 15
17 1448.6 GPM in losses 1594.5 14
17 -574.6 Gold Diff per min in losses -394.3 14
45.5 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -293.9
15 -55.3 Win-Adjusted GPM -64.3 17
17 -124.1 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -39.5 15
7 51.1 Dragon Control % 40.0 16
6 54.5 Herald Control % 42.9 12
3 64.3 Baron Control % 30.8 16
4.0 Quality Wins? #N/A
44.4 % of wins as Quality #N/A

So why am I showing you this? To illustrate that this team still isn’t playing particularly well even in wins. Improved? Yes. Good? No.

So how do we handicap this… it’s tricky because I do think this team is probably going to improve. Since switching to Xiaohao and settling in on this lineup they’ve been confidence, aggressive, and willing to at least make plays and in the current state of the game that matters more than most economic measures. It’s about landing haymakers.

Keep in mind that the model weights trending performance so even considering this revamped Rogue Warriors this is still a heavy handed number. It’s the most they’ve been favored by in a match since Doinb was on the team. I almost feel obligated to fade them at this price even though I do think they’ll probably win this match. Hold your nose and take the dogs.

 

My Picks:

Moneyline: TT +147 (1 unit)

Map Spread: TT -1.5 maps @ +446 (0.25 units)

 


 

Victory Five +462 (+1.5 maps @ +143, -1.5 @ +1100)

vs

Invictus Gaming -769 (-1.5 maps @ -185)

 

Map Moneyline: V5 +321 / IG -455

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -122 / under -108)

Kill Spread: +8.5 @ -114 / -8.5 @ -115

Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 16.5

Time Total: 30:00 (over +100 / under -130)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: +357 / -520 (map), +694 / -1483 (series), +167 / -219 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: Invictus series moneyline and -1.5 maps (light)

Starters:

V5 – Aliez, Pzx, Uniboy, Kepler, Reheal

IG – TheShy, XUN, Rookie, Wink, Lucas

Trends
IG as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) V5 as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 1 2 -686 Matches as Underdogs 0 9 +657
Against Map Spread 1 2 -161 Against Map Spread 1 8 +95
Against Kill Spread 1 7 8.8 Against Kill Spread 7 12 +9
Kill Totals 5 3 25.83 Kill Totals 8 11 25.83
Team Kill Totals 3 5 16.50 Team Kill Totals 7 12 8.28
Game Time Totals 6 2 29.7 Game Time Totals 10 9 29.67
Dragons over 4.5 4 4 Dragons over 4.5 8 11
Towers over 11.5 4 4 Towers over 11.5 8 11

 

League Rank Invictus Tale of the Tape Victory Five League Rank
4 299.7 Gold Diff @ 10 min -2061.3 17
8 263.5 Gold Diff @ 15 min -1169.7 14
11 925.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min -363.7 17
-119.2 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -201.1
15 -21.9 Gold Diff / min first 20 -180.5 17
1 829.8 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 341.2 11
11 1790.5 Gold /min (GPM) 1590.6 17
1.7 Gold / min vs Avg -198.1
12 -52.0 Gold Diff / min -361.2 17
12 -0.8 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -5.1 17
9 1613.3 Kill Agnostic GPM 1487.6 17
12 -13.3 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -213.0 17
2 1999.8 GPM in wins 1991.6 4
11 308.4 Gold Diff per min in wins 417.0 1
6 1661.6 GPM in losses 1570.6 16
5 -273.7 Gold Diff per min in losses -400.1 15
-47.4 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -356.6
2 49.7 Win-Adjusted GPM 41.5 4
11 -14.3 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 94.3 1
5 55.8 Dragon Control % 32.2 17
1 68.4 Herald Control % 42.1 13
5 60.0 Baron Control % 13.0 17
3.0 Quality Wins? 1.0
37.5 % of wins as Quality 100.0

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 65.610%
2 1 24.932%
1 2 5.848%
0 2 3.610%
(Series Win): 90.542%

 

This is exactly the kind of series Invictus lose … but you can’t in good conscience actually go based on that alone. It’s really easy to meme on this team but Victory Five are B.A.D. BAD. Weird things sometimes happen on Monday’s in the LPL which has been a silly curse for years but I have a hard time not backing Invictus here. Don’t get cute.

If you are interested in the dogs I think playing derivatives is the best way to do it. V5 first blood and first herald showed decent edges on the market price given Invictus’ strengths/weaknesses. The over 12.5 towers isn’t a bad look either given how sloppy IG have been at times this season. Over 36% of their games have dgone over that total vs implied odds of 24.27%.

 

My Picks:

Map Spread: Invictus -1.5 maps @ -185 (1.85 units)

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and you can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

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