LPL Summer 2021
Week Six – Day One
LGD Gaming +414 (+1.5 maps @ +119, -1.5 @ +1073)
vs
EDward Gaming -625 (-1.5 maps @ -152, +1.5 @ -3333)
Map Moneyline: LGD +301 / EDG -435
Kill Total: 25.5 (over -122 / under -105)
Kill Spread: +8.5 @ -122 / -8.5 @ -105
Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 16.5
Time Total: 30:00 (over -122 / under -106)
Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: +186 / -248 (map), +273 / -373 (series), -130 / +102 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)
Model Suggested Play: LGD +1.5 maps
Starters:
LGD – Fearness, Shad0w, Xiye, Kramer, Mark
EDG – Flandre, Jiejie, Scout, Viper, Meiko
| Trends | |||||||||||
| EDG as Favorites | Win/Over | Loss/Under | Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) | LGD as Underdogs | Win/Over | Loss/Under | Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) | ||||
| Matches as Favorites | 9 | 1 | -1776 | Matches as Underdogs | 2 | 5 | +234 | ||||
| Against Map Spread | 8 | 2 | -101 | Against Map Spread | 4 | 3 | -106 | ||||
| Against Kill Spread | 15 | 6 | 8.1 | Against Kill Spread | 9 | 9 | +7 | ||||
| Kill Totals | 12 | 9 | 25.20 | Kill Totals | 11 | 7 | 25.93 | ||||
| Team Kill Totals | 11 | 10 | 16.20 | Team Kill Totals | 10 | 8 | 9.79 | ||||
| Game Time Totals | 12 | 9 | 30.5 | Game Time Totals | 9 | 9 | 30.29 | ||||
| Dragons over 4.5 | 9 | 12 | Dragons over 4.5 | 10 | 8 | ||||||
| Towers over 11.5 | 7 | 14 | Towers over 11.5 | 9 | 9 | ||||||
| League Rank | EDG | Tale of the Tape | LGD | League Rank |
| 2 | 983.9 | Gold Diff @ 10 min | 397.2 | 6 |
| 1 | 1678.0 | Gold Diff @ 15 min | 1117.0 | 4 |
| 1 | 2525.0 | Gold Diff @ 20 min | 1425.0 | 13 |
| 60.3 | GPM first 20 min vs Avg | 14.2 | ||
| 2 | 160.0 | Gold Diff / min first 20 | -44.1 | 8 |
| 1 | 631.5 | Gold Diff / min Rest of Game | 360.4 | 6 |
| 2 | 1893.5 | Gold /min (GPM) | 1804.9 | 9 |
| 110.1 | Gold / min vs Avg | 21.6 | ||
| 1 | 259.2 | Gold Diff / min | 29.6 | 9 |
| 1 | 3.7 | Gold Percent Rating (GPR) | 0.4 | 9 |
| 2 | 1643.5 | Kill Agnostic GPM | 1592.5 | 11 |
| 1 | 129.2 | Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min | 12.2 | 11 |
| 11 | 1932.7 | GPM in wins | 1933.4 | 10 |
| 7 | 343.8 | Gold Diff per min in wins | 297.6 | 14 |
| 2 | 1684.3 | GPM in losses | 1650.8 | 6 |
| 1 | -192.3 | Gold Diff per min in losses | -292.0 | 8 |
| 264.2 | Adjusted Gold Diff / min | 34.6 | ||
| 11 | -12.2 | Win-Adjusted GPM | -11.5 | 10 |
| 7 | 24.2 | Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min | -22.1 | 14 |
| 1 | 68.3 | Dragon Control % | 46.9 | 11 |
| 3 | 63.2 | Herald Control % | 45.5 | 11 |
| 2 | 65.5 | Baron Control % | 55.6 | 8 |
| 10.0 | Quality Wins? | 6.0 | ||
| 62.5 | % of wins as Quality | 50.0 |
(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)
Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):
| Series Outcomes | ||
| Wins | Losses | Probability |
| 2 | 0 | 46.448% |
| 2 | 1 | 29.585% |
| 1 | 2 | 13.825% |
| 0 | 2 | 10.142% |
| (Series Win): | 76.033% | |
LGD’s match wins on the season are against Rogue Warriors, Invictus, Suning, JDG, and UltraPrime.
Their losses are to TOP, BiliBili, RNG, FPX, and RareAtom.
That’s honestly a fairly balanced spectrum and their underlying metrics suggest that they’re performing at about their average if not underachieving slightly. The thing with LGD is that they’re a very feast or famine team except they don’t ever really feast either. This is still a poorly coached team, they’re sloppy, lazy with vision setup and don’t properly close out games when they should win. They’ve lost three games while 800 or more gold ahead at 20 minutes this season and two of those were much larger gold leads. They rank 14th in gold differential per minute in wins as well. Now, certain types of teams can somewhat justify this kind of statistical performance because they indext into scaling, opt for dragons over herald snowballs, and minimize early game losses but LGD are a team that attempts to snowball the game early and yet rank 13th in the league at 1425 gold differential at 20 minutes although their 15 minute lead ranks 4th overall.
EDG eat teams like this for breakfast. EDG are the brains of the LPL. They’re playing arguably the most intelligent League of Legends on the planet right now in any region and while I take some issue with a few minor things about their play, for all intents and purposes, they’re deserving of being called the best team in the world at the moment. Even if EDG screw up this early game, and by the way, they’re the best early game rating teams in the LPL and one of the best in the world, they’re such an intelligent macro team that they could just wait for LGD to screw up.
I’m going against the model and backing the favorites here. I just don’t like the way LGD plays and I think stylistically this is an absolute nightmare for them. LGD are going to beat mid table LPL teams because they make a lot of mistakes as well but EDG simply don’t make many and will punish the sloppiness LGD bring to every game. I’ll also be taking the over here. LGD have an absurd amount of deaths in losses and seem to not know a fight they can say no to. EDG are a relatively high win team as well.
My Picks:
Map Spread: EDG -1.5 maps @ -154 (3.08 units)
Kill Total (alt): Map 2 OVER 26.5 @ -101 (1.01 units)
Kill Total (alt): Map 2 OVER 27.5 @ +114 (0.25 units)
Kill Total (alt): Map 2 OVER 28.5 @ +135 (0.25 units)
FunPlus Phoenix -119 (-1.5 maps @ +255, +1.5 @ -357)
vs
RareAtom -108 (+1.5 maps @ -345, -1.5 @ +258)
Map Moneyline: FPX -111 / RA -114
Kill Total: 26.5 (over -112 / under -116)
Kill Spread: -3.5 @ -112 / +3.5 @ -115
Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 12.5
Time Total: 31:00 (over -116 / under -112)
Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: +108 / -137 (map), -100 / -128 (series), +234 / -313 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)
Model Suggested Play: RareAtom series moneyline (miniscule)
Starters:
FPX – Nuguri, Tian, Doinb, Lwx, Shenyi
RA – Cube, Leyan, FoFo, iBoy, Hang
| Trends | |||||||||||
| FPX as Favorites | Win/Over | Loss/Under | Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) | RA as Underdogs | Win/Over | Loss/Under | Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) | ||||
| Matches as Favorites | 6 | 3 | -1249 | Matches as Underdogs | 3 | 1 | +150 | ||||
| Against Map Spread | 5 | 4 | -83 | Against Map Spread | 3 | 1 | -227 | ||||
| Against Kill Spread | 9 | 13 | 8.1 | Against Kill Spread | 5 | 5 | +5 | ||||
| Kill Totals | 14 | 8 | 26.39 | Kill Totals | 3 | 7 | 25.25 | ||||
| Team Kill Totals | 12 | 10 | 16.61 | Team Kill Totals | 6 | 4 | 10.75 | ||||
| Game Time Totals | 10 | 12 | 29.8 | Game Time Totals | 4 | 6 | 31.25 | ||||
| Dragons over 4.5 | 8 | 14 | Dragons over 4.5 | 4 | 6 | ||||||
| Towers over 11.5 | 10 | 12 | Towers over 11.5 | 2 | 8 | ||||||
| League Rank | FunPlus | Tale of the Tape | RA | League Rank |
| 14 | -679.4 | Gold Diff @ 10 min | 2205.1 | 1 |
| 7 | 453.5 | Gold Diff @ 15 min | 701.0 | 5 |
| 10 | -14.1 | Gold Diff @ 20 min | 213.9 | 2 |
| 78.8 | GPM first 20 min vs Avg | 31.5 | ||
| 1 | 69.5 | Gold Diff / min first 20 | 103.4 | 6 |
| 9 | 333.8 | Gold Diff / min Rest of Game | 268.2 | 10 |
| 1 | 1897.3 | Gold /min (GPM) | 1801.6 | 10 |
| 113.9 | Gold / min vs Avg | 18.3 | ||
| 4 | 126.0 | Gold Diff / min | 107.4 | 5 |
| 4 | 1.8 | Gold Percent Rating (GPR) | 1.5 | 5 |
| 1 | 1668.7 | Kill Agnostic GPM | 1617.2 | 6 |
| 2 | 101.0 | Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min | 79.3 | 4 |
| 1 | 2019.5 | GPM in wins | 1907.0 | 14 |
| 2 | 388.0 | Gold Diff per min in wins | 305.0 | 13 |
| 1 | 1713.9 | GPM in losses | 1575.7 | 15 |
| 6 | -267.1 | Gold Diff per min in losses | -316.0 | 12 |
| 130.9 | Adjusted Gold Diff / min | 112.4 | ||
| 1 | 74.7 | Win-Adjusted GPM | -37.8 | 14 |
| 2 | 68.4 | Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min | -14.6 | 13 |
| 2 | 64.7 | Dragon Control % | 59.6 | 5 |
| 7 | 52.5 | Herald Control % | 67.4 | 2 |
| 11 | 54.5 | Baron Control % | 59.3 | 5 |
| 7.0 | Quality Wins? | 6.0 | ||
| 58.3 | % of wins as Quality | 40.0 |
(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)
Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):
| Series Outcomes | ||
| Wins | Losses | Probability |
| 0 | 2 | 27.052% |
| 1 | 2 | 25.964% |
| 2 | 1 | 23.955% |
| 2 | 0 | 23.028% |
| (Series Win): | 46.984% | |
Nuguri is back in from his short break due to lackluster performance. I’d expect him to be right back in form, that was arguably the single worst stretch of a half dozen series of his entire career. A blip on the radar. That said, Cube is no joke to come back to so keep that in mind.
We’re also getting ShenYi subbing for Crisp as support who is dealing with some health issues. We saw Lwx support last series. ShenYi is NOT JingYi, they are two different players from the FPX developmental system.
I think FPX are just getting their players some time off here to stave off burnout amongst other things. Don’t look to far into this.
A lot of what I said earlier about LGD you could say about RareAtom as well except that they’re overall a much more intelligent macro team than LGD is and rarely throw away leads even if they don’t slam the door shut with emphatic fashion like some of the top end LPL teams.
I think this is roughly a fair price for this series, if anything I’d lean toward RareAtom with the substitutions on FPX’s side but this is close enough that I don’t really see a strong enough edge to warrant a position on a side. I do, however, like the time total under. Only 40% and 31.8% of the games for FPX and RA respectively have gone over the 31 minute total this season and strength of opponent hasn’t really impacted that either. Generally we’re seeing faster games at the moment anyway. Close to even money? Yes please. You could also look to the dragon total under as well.
| FunPlus | RA | ||
| Average Game Time | 29.99 | 30.53 | |
| Avg Game Time (in wins) | 29.59 | 31.08 | |
| Avg Game Time (in losses) | 30.575 | 29.333 | |
| Combined Avg Game Time | 30.256 | ||
| Book Odds Weighted | 30.15 | ||
| Rating Odds Weighted | 30.21 | ||
| Volatility Rating | 0.20587 | 0.18340 | 0.18386 |
First games have gone OVER the time total in 49 out of 76 matches this season accounting for MORE than half of the time totals overs for the entire LPL this season (94 out of 180). Map 2 unders are stronger but I’ll be on both here. These teams know how to snowball a lead.
My Picks:
Time Total: Map 1 UNDER 31:00 @ -112 (1.12 units)
Time Total: Map 2 UNDER 31:00 @ -112 (1.12 units)
I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.
Check out The Gold Card Podcast and you can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL
(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)
