LPL Summer 2021

Week Six – Day One

 

LGD Gaming +414 (+1.5 maps @ +119, -1.5 @ +1073)

vs

EDward Gaming -625 (-1.5 maps @ -152, +1.5 @ -3333)

 

Map Moneyline: LGD +301 / EDG -435

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -122 / under -105)

Kill Spread: +8.5 @ -122 / -8.5 @ -105

Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 16.5

Time Total: 30:00 (over -122 / under -106)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  +186 / -248 (map), +273 / -373 (series), -130 / +102 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: LGD +1.5 maps

Starters:

LGD – Fearness, Shad0w, Xiye, Kramer, Mark

EDG – Flandre, Jiejie, Scout, Viper, Meiko

Trends
EDG as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) LGD as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 9 1 -1776 Matches as Underdogs 2 5 +234
Against Map Spread 8 2 -101 Against Map Spread 4 3 -106
Against Kill Spread 15 6 8.1 Against Kill Spread 9 9 +7
Kill Totals 12 9 25.20 Kill Totals 11 7 25.93
Team Kill Totals 11 10 16.20 Team Kill Totals 10 8 9.79
Game Time Totals 12 9 30.5 Game Time Totals 9 9 30.29
Dragons over 4.5 9 12 Dragons over 4.5 10 8
Towers over 11.5 7 14 Towers over 11.5 9 9

 

 

League Rank EDG Tale of the Tape LGD League Rank
2 983.9 Gold Diff @ 10 min 397.2 6
1 1678.0 Gold Diff @ 15 min 1117.0 4
1 2525.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min 1425.0 13
60.3 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 14.2
2 160.0 Gold Diff / min first 20 -44.1 8
1 631.5 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 360.4 6
2 1893.5 Gold /min (GPM) 1804.9 9
110.1 Gold / min vs Avg 21.6
1 259.2 Gold Diff / min 29.6 9
1 3.7 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 0.4 9
2 1643.5 Kill Agnostic GPM 1592.5 11
1 129.2 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 12.2 11
11 1932.7 GPM in wins 1933.4 10
7 343.8 Gold Diff per min in wins 297.6 14
2 1684.3 GPM in losses 1650.8 6
1 -192.3 Gold Diff per min in losses -292.0 8
264.2 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 34.6
11 -12.2 Win-Adjusted GPM -11.5 10
7 24.2 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -22.1 14
1 68.3 Dragon Control % 46.9 11
3 63.2 Herald Control % 45.5 11
2 65.5 Baron Control % 55.6 8
10.0 Quality Wins? 6.0
62.5 % of wins as Quality 50.0

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 46.448%
2 1 29.585%
1 2 13.825%
0 2 10.142%
(Series Win): 76.033%

LGD’s match wins on the season are against Rogue Warriors, Invictus, Suning, JDG, and UltraPrime.

Their losses are to TOP, BiliBili, RNG, FPX, and RareAtom.

That’s honestly a fairly balanced spectrum and their underlying metrics suggest that they’re performing at about their average if not underachieving slightly. The thing with LGD is that they’re a very feast or famine team except they don’t ever really feast either. This is still a poorly coached team, they’re sloppy, lazy with vision setup and don’t properly close out games when they should win. They’ve lost three games while 800 or more gold ahead at 20 minutes this season and two of those were much larger gold leads. They rank 14th in gold differential per minute in wins as well. Now, certain types of teams can somewhat justify this kind of statistical performance because they indext into scaling, opt for dragons over herald snowballs, and minimize early game losses but LGD are a team that attempts to snowball the game early and yet rank 13th in the league at 1425 gold differential at 20 minutes although their 15 minute lead ranks 4th overall.

EDG eat teams like this for breakfast.  EDG are the brains of the LPL. They’re playing arguably the most intelligent League of Legends on the planet right now in any region and while I take some issue with a few minor things about their play, for all intents and purposes, they’re deserving of being called the best team in the world at the moment. Even if EDG screw up this early game, and by the way, they’re the best early game rating teams in the LPL and one of the best in the world, they’re such an intelligent macro team that they could just wait for LGD to screw up.

I’m going against the model and backing the favorites here. I just don’t like the way LGD plays and I think stylistically this is an absolute nightmare for them. LGD are going to beat mid table LPL teams because they make a lot of mistakes as well but EDG simply don’t make many and will punish the sloppiness LGD bring to every game. I’ll also be taking the over here. LGD have an absurd amount of deaths in losses and seem to not know a fight they can say no to. EDG are a relatively high win team as well.

My Picks:

Map Spread: EDG -1.5 maps @ -154 (3.08 units)

Kill Total (alt): Map 2 OVER 26.5 @ -101 (1.01 units)

Kill Total (alt): Map 2 OVER 27.5 @ +114 (0.25 units)

Kill Total (alt): Map 2 OVER 28.5 @ +135 (0.25 units)

 


 

FunPlus Phoenix -119 (-1.5 maps @ +255, +1.5 @ -357)

vs

RareAtom -108 (+1.5 maps @ -345, -1.5 @ +258)

 

Map Moneyline: FPX -111 / RA -114

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -112 / under -116)

Kill Spread: -3.5 @ -112 / +3.5 @ -115

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 12.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -116 / under -112)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  +108 / -137 (map), -100 / -128 (series), +234 / -313 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: RareAtom series moneyline (miniscule)

Starters:

FPX – Nuguri, Tian, Doinb, Lwx, Shenyi

RA – Cube, Leyan, FoFo, iBoy, Hang

Trends
FPX as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) RA as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 6 3 -1249 Matches as Underdogs 3 1 +150
Against Map Spread 5 4 -83 Against Map Spread 3 1 -227
Against Kill Spread 9 13 8.1 Against Kill Spread 5 5 +5
Kill Totals 14 8 26.39 Kill Totals 3 7 25.25
Team Kill Totals 12 10 16.61 Team Kill Totals 6 4 10.75
Game Time Totals 10 12 29.8 Game Time Totals 4 6 31.25
Dragons over 4.5 8 14 Dragons over 4.5 4 6
Towers over 11.5 10 12 Towers over 11.5 2 8

 

League Rank FunPlus Tale of the Tape RA League Rank
14 -679.4 Gold Diff @ 10 min 2205.1 1
7 453.5 Gold Diff @ 15 min 701.0 5
10 -14.1 Gold Diff @ 20 min 213.9 2
78.8 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 31.5
1 69.5 Gold Diff / min first 20 103.4 6
9 333.8 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 268.2 10
1 1897.3 Gold /min (GPM) 1801.6 10
113.9 Gold / min vs Avg 18.3
4 126.0 Gold Diff / min 107.4 5
4 1.8 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 1.5 5
1 1668.7 Kill Agnostic GPM 1617.2 6
2 101.0 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 79.3 4
1 2019.5 GPM in wins 1907.0 14
2 388.0 Gold Diff per min in wins 305.0 13
1 1713.9 GPM in losses 1575.7 15
6 -267.1 Gold Diff per min in losses -316.0 12
130.9 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 112.4
1 74.7 Win-Adjusted GPM -37.8 14
2 68.4 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -14.6 13
2 64.7 Dragon Control % 59.6 5
7 52.5 Herald Control % 67.4 2
11 54.5 Baron Control % 59.3 5
7.0 Quality Wins? 6.0
58.3 % of wins as Quality 40.0

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
0 2 27.052%
1 2 25.964%
2 1 23.955%
2 0 23.028%
(Series Win): 46.984%

Nuguri is back in from his short break due to lackluster performance. I’d expect him to be right back in form, that was arguably the single worst stretch of a half dozen series of his entire career. A blip on the radar. That said, Cube is no joke to come back to so keep that in mind.

We’re also getting ShenYi subbing for Crisp as support who is dealing with some health issues. We saw Lwx support last series. ShenYi is NOT JingYi, they are two different players from the FPX developmental system.

I think FPX are just getting their players some time off here to stave off burnout amongst other things. Don’t look to far into this.

A lot of what I said earlier about LGD you could say about RareAtom as well except that they’re overall a much more intelligent macro team than LGD is and rarely throw away leads even if they don’t slam the door shut with emphatic fashion like some of the top end LPL teams.

I think this is roughly a fair price for this series, if anything I’d lean toward RareAtom with the substitutions on FPX’s side but this is close enough that I don’t really see a strong enough edge to warrant a position on a side. I do, however, like the time total under. Only 40% and 31.8% of the games for FPX and RA respectively have gone over the 31 minute total this season and strength of opponent hasn’t really impacted that either. Generally we’re seeing faster games at the moment anyway. Close to even money? Yes please. You could also look to the dragon total under as well.

FunPlus RA
Average Game Time 29.99 30.53
Avg Game Time (in wins) 29.59 31.08
Avg Game Time (in losses) 30.575 29.333
Combined Avg Game Time 30.256
Book Odds Weighted 30.15
Rating Odds Weighted 30.21
Volatility Rating 0.20587 0.18340 0.18386

First games have gone OVER the time total in 49 out of 76 matches this season accounting for MORE than half of the time totals overs for the entire LPL this season (94 out of 180). Map 2 unders are stronger but I’ll be on both here. These teams know how to snowball a lead.

My Picks:

Time Total: Map 1 UNDER 31:00 @ -112 (1.12 units)

Time Total: Map 2 UNDER 31:00 @ -112 (1.12 units)

 

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and you can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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