Sunday, January 24th Recap

 

LNG Esports vs Team WE (Net: +1.62 units)

LNG got off to strong starts in both of these games but never really accrued any sort of meaningful gold leads despite the first tower and first blood in each. This looked more like the Team WE we saw last season, stable lanes, group for dragon no matter what, bully the other team out, rinse and repeat to stack dragons and call it a day. This season has been a little bit more loose with lots of skirmishing. While I criticize them for not always engineering their own advantages, against teams that don’t try to capitalize on their intentionally neutral lane drafting they’re just going to win most of the time. They make very few mistakes and just play with a solid foundation. When Team WE are playing this way and not the more wheel-and-deal style they’ve been trying more this season, they’re just not going to lose to most of the LPL that isn’t at the top of the table. You have to be more aggressive when drafting against this team and try to disrupt their flow or take advantage of their “safe” drafting. Team WE are very predictable but nobody seems to want to punish it and until they do they’re just going to be easy money against any team they’re better than. Team WE are like Diet TOP Esports.

Rogue Warriors vs Victory Five (Net: +2.58 units)

This Victory Five team is so ridiculously good at this uptempo style. I personally think it’s the superior way to play the game once you meet a certain level of quality with it. A lot of teams struggle to close out games because they’re not as practiced with it but V5’s execution is so clean and consistent and I think it’s a great way to attack the league, especially early in the season when everyone is getting situated. Aodi slotted right in, no issues.

Rogue Warriors tried to match the early game look in game one but botched a few early chances and these games were over from there. I still think this team might eventually get there but I need to see them get over the hump first. I’ll only be backing them when they’re severely underpriced.

KT Rolster vs T1 (Net: -4.24 units)

T1 had a somewhat clean win in game one. Game two looked completely fine as they had a vastly superior scaling composition and picked up an early drake. Clozer had a pretty egregious death in the mid lane in this game playing super far up for absolutely no reason with people missing on the map and no vision to either side. Either way they were keeping the gold even despite the kill advantage and huge top lane edge to Doran winning as Renekton in the Gangplank matchup (considered heavily GP favored despite win rates). While dancing mid lane, T1 sent two people to face check the fourth dragon (KT’s 2nd) and Yone turned off of the dragon, ulted two people and killed them both. This turned into a baron and then the game seemingly out of nowhere off of a dumb and honestly pointless mistake.

Game three was just a lane kingdom for KT yet again. Doran dumpstered top lane. T1’s bottom lane was pushed all the way up to tower with no minions (was reset already), no vision, and their jungler on the other side of the map. Just a stupid, lazy mistake. Shortly after this Gumayusi as Vayne got solo killed as the supports roamed. Vayne wins 1v1’s. KT picked up the first three dragons and should have been able to leverage soul point for some winning fights. They tried really hard to lose this game…

This was BY FAR T1’s worst series of the season. Messy, lazy, and honestly really entitled looking. I’m kind of glad KT smacked them in the mouth despite the gigantic hit to our bankroll on this one. This was a case of younger players maybe feeling themselves a bit too much and not playing with the same intensity and focus. T1 looked completely checked out in this series. KT look like they’re going to be a weird version of 2020 DRX. If Doran continues his top lane dominance that’s just a massive advantage that they can leverage every single game. He’s completely destroying in winning matchups and is outright winning when he’s counterpicked or in poor situations. Ever since that uncharacteristically bad first match performance he’s been utterly dominant.

I’d fully expect to see Faker and Teddy play the next match after this showing from Clozer and Gumayusi if for no other reason than the reality check. They legitimately deserve a benching for this one.

Gen.G vs Hanwha Life (Net: -3.93 units)

This game one might have been the worst I’ve ever seen from Ruler or Life in their entire careers. It just sort of got away from Gen.G and was looking completely over but they were able to claw it back and built up a gold lead despite the kill advantage for HLE. GenG snuck a baron leveraging Hanwhas desire to want cloud soul, then fought them and aced them at that match and won the game off of that.

Game two turned into a circus quickly. Ruler and Life 2v2 killed at level two and then overstayed to get ganked for the cleanup. Rascal and Clid tried a blind dive top lane with no vision on Arthur or Chovy. Chovy picked up two kills, picked up another two kills in a skirmish mid lane shortly after and he was off to the races.  Hella sloppy game from Gen.G akin to T1’s game three.

Game three was equally sloppy. Early advantage to Gen.G that they could have easily snowballed much but instead opted into a bunch of pointless fights and allow Hanwha to get back into it with… get this…. THEIR SKIRMISH COMP… LETS SKIRMISH AGAINST THE SKIRMISH COMP INSTEAD OF SITTING ON OUR LEAD AND GRINDING THIS GAME OUT…

Chovy went ballistic in this game on Akali but it was entirely Gen.G’s fault for opting into multiple situations that they absolutely did not need to.

This series was incredibly frustrating. Hell this entire morning in the LCK was incredibly frustrating not just because it added to an already abysmal start to my LCK season but because I’m absolutely positive Gen.G and T1 were the right sides even at these numbers and the players just decided to no-show today. This morning felt like the LPL and LCK switched places. The games we saw in the LCK today were way more like what your typical LPL games look like and vice versa.

 

Astralis vs Vitality (Net: +1.0 units)

Fnatic vs Schalke (Net: -1.14 units)

Excel vs G2 Esports (Net: -2.59 units)

Misfits vs MAD Lions (Net: no action)

Rogue vs SK GAming (Net: no action)

 Evil Geniuses vs Golden Guardians (Net: -1.71 units)

Team Liquid vs FlyQuest (Net: +1.0 units)

 

LPL Net Total: +4.2 units

LCK Net Total: -8.17 units

LEC Net Total: -2.73 units

LCS Lock-In Net Total: -0.71 units

 

Daily Net Total: -7.41 units

 


 

LOL Pro League (China)

Week 4 – Day 1

 

 

EDward Gaming -1667 (-1.5 maps @ -278)

vs

TT Gaming +749 (+1.5 maps @ +206, -1.5 @ +1500)

 

Total Maps Played: 2.5 (over +235 / under -323)

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -122 / under -108)

Kill Spread: -10.5 @ -110 / +10.5 @ -119

Team Kill Totals: 17.5 / 6.5

Time Total: 30:00 (over -123 / under -105)

Starting Lineups:

EDG – Flandre, Jiejie, Scout, Viper, Meiko

TT – Chelizi, Xiaopeng, Twila, SamD, Teeen

Value Analysis:

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 76.939%
2 1 18.904%
1 2 2.648%
0 2 1.509%

 

Above is the series outcomes if you assume the map price of -714 (87.7%) for EDG is accurate. That gives us a decent sized edge on the EDG -1.5 which is the only way to really play sides in this one unless you want to attack win-correlated props like first inhibitor, first baron, first to 5/10 kills etc.

 

I was optimistic about TT before the season started but they’re having a lot of the same issues that Dominus did last season. Eventually we did see Dominus figure things out to some extent and take some games but there was a reason they were the bottom dwellers of the league.

It’s a rich price to pay but unless EDG simply don’t show up, like the LCK favorites yesterday, I don’t see TT taking a game and this is actually a decent price on it if you go by the map price. Now, do I think the map price of 87.7% is warranted here? There’s a lot that can go wrong, especially early in the season and especially since EDG are somewhat flying high. This is a classic “let down” spot for EDG. There’s a chance they mail this one in or show up a little flat but I think, given the chip on their shoulder from last season and the fact that this is the best this team has looked in years, that there’s a chance they just remain dialed in a la FPX 2019. I think the latter is more likely than the former although I’m sure we’ll have chances down the line for the let down spot.

Other Markets:

Favorites have failed to cover their team total in 56% of games in the LPL with an average total of 15.84 kills. In games where favorites are -400 or greater, kill total unders have hit 67.65% with an average total of 26.76 kills. Favorites have covered their team total in just 44.12% of these contests. Underdogs have covered their team kill total in just 41.12% of these contests with an average total of 9.03 kills.

 

The total of 24.5 is an appropriate number and one that’s been adjusted downward significantly considering TT’s perfect record to the under this season.The market I like more in this one is the favorite team total under. It’s only an 8 game sample but EDG are scoring an average of 15.125 kills per win and have only gone over 16 kills on two occasions. Now, TT are allowing 17.67 kills per loss which is a lot but I anticipate EDG showing up and taking care of business as large favorites.

 

My Picks:

 

(this market moved as I was typing this, better price for our side)

Map Spread: EDG -1.5 maps @ -263 (2.63 units)

Kill Total (team): Map 1 EDG UNDER 17.5 @ -120 (0.6 units)

Kill Total (team): Map 2 EDG UNDER 17.5 @ -120 (0.6 units)

Kill Total (team): Map 3 EDG UNDER 17.5 @ -120 (0.6 units)

 


JDG -192 (-1.5 maps @ +167, +1.5 @ -556)

vs

RareAtom +149 (+1.5 maps @ -217, -1.5 @ +364)

 

Total Maps Played: 2.5 (over +104 / under -132)

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -110 / under -119)

Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -111 / +5.5 @ -118

Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 10.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over +100 / under -130)

Starting Lineups:

JDG – Zoom, Kanavi, Yagao, LokeN, LvMao

RA – Cube, Leyan, FoFo, iBoy, Hang

 

RareAtom had their first match with Leyan back in the lineup and played a close 0-2 loss to a uniquely challenging matchup in BiliBili.  As many of you know, I’m a bit of a RareAtom bull and I think once this lineup gets in the swing of things that they’ll be a very good team but there might be a little bit of a re-adjustment as they get Leyan back.

JDG are in a bit of a funk and as I mentioned, they’ve had a really tough opening schedule. There’s clearly some frustration, miscommunication, and more going on. That said, even with Kanavi having an awful last series, they still managed to almost steal a game from EDG.

RareAtom catching good teams off of rough starts and trying to get off the schneid is kind of unfortunate but I do think they’re the play here even at the reduced number. JDG are in a weird funk at the moment and there’s a chance that they’re this years’ FPX. I sure hope that isn’t the case but it’s sort of looking that way so far. Yagao and Kanavi have been overplaying A LOT this season and Leyan and FoFo are good enough to punish that. Obviously it’s January and I don’t want to be all doom and gloom for JDG but they’ve got some things to work out.

I’ll be putting a small play on the dogs here at this price. At the early price of +172 where I got them earlier in the week I liked it more but I’d still play it here if I hadn’t already played it earlier in the week. For record keeping purposes I’ll be using this current price as that’s what will be available to you all.

Other Markets:

 

I’m really tempted by this over time total at plus money but I’m just going to pass. It’s tough for me to go against the overarching trends in the LPL this season. The props for this would have been better at the old prices but as it stands they’re pretty fairly priced. Pass.

 

My Picks:

 

Map Spread: RareAtom +1.5 maps @ -217 (1.085 units)

Moneyline: RareAtom +149 (0.25 units)

Map Spread: RareAtom -1.5 maps @ +364 (0.1 units)

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

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