Sunday, January 31st Recap
Afreeca vs T1 (Net: -0.28 units)
What a weird morning in the LCK.
I pointed out yesterday how much less I like T1 as a favorite when Clozer is in the lineup and how we’d be attacking certain derivative markets with him in over Faker for a number of different reasons. To an extreme degree that came to fruition. T1 are clearly gifted and loaded with players but for whatever reason they make some questionable and greedy decisions with this iteration of the lineup.
The first game of this was at least fairly close and Afreeca just had the better scaling with Orianna and Xayah who would make things incredibly difficult for Kaisa later in the game unless they were picked off immediately. This was winnable but it wasn’t unreasonable that Afreeca won this. Afreeca played much cleaner and picked up the third dragon on after stabilizing and won.
The second game is a perfect example of the concepts I’ve been mentioning with this iteration of the lineup. It just has to be some sort of “eye on the prize” macro-centric voice in comms with Faker because they always seem to have the big picture in mind over whatever is happening right in front of them. T1 look more disjointed with this version. Canna pushed up way WAY too far in the top lane to give up first blood while Cuzz was on dragon on the other side of the map. After that hiccup, T1 actually built up a pretty massive lead with some picks from Keria and Clozer and Afreeca failing to finish off Olaf (that’s getting to be too familiar a phrase…). T1 had a nearly 3000 gold lead at 16 minutes into this game while having the first two drakes. They’d get the third and threaten baron with a 4500 gold lead. While approaching the fourth dragon, soul point for T1, Keria got picked off by Syndra and then T1 piled into the fight anyway and ended up getting 4-for-0’d. They then caught Clozer mid lane, T1 piled into the fight again and lost two more, for a 3-for-0 and a free baron. Afreeca had erased the gold lead. T1 would lose the next dragon fight and eventually that would cost them the game.
Leadership matters. Good shot calling matters. For whatever reason that’s lacking without Faker in the lineup for T1 and they’ve lost a number of games that they had no business losing because of it. Afreeca do get a lot of props for this series. It was their best series of the season and it’s starting to look like they’re rounding into that form we’re so familiar with. T1 were the worse team today. Afreeca stayed disciplined and their veteran experience showed in this one.
KT Rolster vs Nongshim (Net: -5.49 units)
Sometimes you get all kinds of value and the result just doesn’t go your way. It’s part of handicapping and it sucks when it happens. KT Rolster laid an egg, especially in game one today. They fought directly into the bottom lane without knowledge of where Olaf was and lost to an Olaf hard snowball in game one. Game two was closer but still full of some really boneheaded plays with people being caught out. Nongshim had the Xayah + Orianna combo to make things difficult for Hybrid’s Kaisa (who nearly pentakilled in this game by the way before what looked like Hybrid said “I got it” and then died on the last kill). After that near penta there was a battle over vision in KT’s jungle while preparing for the dragon, the fight became really disjointed like there were mixed calls going on, and Nonshim 3-for-2’d but had both of their carries up and ended the game on the spot.
There were a lot of these kinds of disjointed or out of sync plays by both T1 and KT today.
Nongshim looked better today which was a sight for sore eyes. I think game one was somewhat spoon-fed to them (don’t fight blind into a team with Olaf, too many bad things happen with how hard that champion snowballs) but game two was a deserved victory through stronger macro and fewer mistakes in team fights.
TOP Esports vs JD Gaming (Net: +1.695 units)
Game one started off with a 4.5 v 4 party in the bottom lane where 369’s Camille picked up first blood, Yagao walked down late but TOP managed to get out with a 1-for-0 even without Karsa present. Zoom solo killed 369 when he got back to lane because he didn’t have flash, another 4v4 happened at dragon that resulted in a 3-for-2 for TOP and this game was off to the races with a 3000+ gold lead at 15 minutes for TOP after they’d take the bottom tower after that dragon fight. JDG took their chances to fight back into this one but TOP were just too far ahead and stacked up a quick ocean soul for the GG.
Game two didn’t get nearly as chaotic as early but JackeyLove’s Samira picked up two doubles as TOP’s first four kills against the Vayne “counter pick.” Unless Jackey had one of his moments where he just overextends and punts the game, which does happen from time to time, this game was essentially over already. JDG made a few of these fights extremely close considering the deficit they were playing at but Jackey was just too far ahead.
JDG didn’t play that badly in this series as much as TOP were just exceptional.
RareAtom vs Rogue Warriors (Net: +3.0 units)
RareAtom won the 4v4 party in the bottom lane because… get this… THEY FOCUSED THE OLAF DOWN! Leyan picked up three kills and got his Chemtank at 6 minutes on Udyr. This game was over in 23 minutes. Game two was somewhat similar with RA winning the early fight bottom lane followed by Cube solo killing Ziv’s Jayce with Renekton on the top side of the map. This was essentially over as well despite a few sports where FoFo was trying to style on the Yone.
Good look for RareAtom but this was fairly predictable given the bottom lane woes for Rogue Warriors. If you can just force this big early bottom lane fight and they’re going to lose it most games. That’s a tough thing to manage. Until we see some stability in the bottom lane Rogue Warriors and Ziv step up after a rough start in his first LPL season this team is fade candidate.
LPL Net Total: +4.695 units
LCK Net Total: -5.77 units
LCS Lock-In Net Total: (pending)
Daily Net Total: (pending)
LOL Pro League (China)
Week 5 – Day 1
Suning Gaming -1111 (-1.5 maps @ -217)
LGD Gaming +583 (+1.5 maps @ +167, -1.5 @ +1100)
Total Maps Played: 2.5 (over +205 / under -270)
Kill Total: 25.5 (over -109 / under -120)
Kill Spread: -9.5 @ -118 / +9.5 @ -111
Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 7.5
Time Total: 31:00 (over +100 / under -130)
(Individual player model positional ranking in paranthesis, living number)
SN – Bin (7), SofM (6), Angel (1), Huanfeng (3), ON (16)
LGD – Cult (16), Kui (19), Uniboy (13), Kramer (18), Peace (17)
Both of these teams have been riding the struggle bus to varying degrees this season. LGD overall have shown every little promise outside of their very first match. Suning had lofty expectations from most and have been remarkably inconsistent but had a solid “get right” spot against OMG in their last match which they smashed in under 48 total minutes.
I think that’s what we’re going to see here.
Peace had a rough debut in his last outing and I’d expect him and Kramer to be better the more time they play together but it hasn’t been very long and Suning outcalss them across the board anyway. Suning are going to have to beat themselves in this match and while that’s well within the realm of possibility, that’s not something we rely on.
I typically love big kill spreads against Suning because they tend to play some ugly games but LGD legitimately look like the worst team in the league and haven’t given anyone a lot to be optimistic about.
In matches where the favorites is -400 or greater this season, kill totals have gone under 57.78% (average of 26.55) of the time and time totals have gone under 55.56% of the time. LGD have gone under in 66.67% of their games so far as well. 31:00 is a low time total but I think we’re in a great spot for all of the unders. Suning also like to split push quite a bit and I could see that as a low kill out here as well.
Map Spread: Suning -1.5 maps @ -217 (2.17 units)
Kill Total: Map 1 UNDER 25.5 kills @ -120 (0.6 units)
Kill Total: Map 2 UNDER 25.5 kills @ -112 (0.56 units)
Kill Total: Map 3 UNDER 25.5 kills @ -112 (0.56 units)
Time Total: Map 1 UNDER 31:00 @ -130 (0.65 units)
Time Total: Map 2 UNDER 31:00 @ -128 (0.64 units)
Time Total: Map 3 UNDER 31:00 @ -125 (0.625 units)
BiliBili Gaming +280 (+1.5 maps @ -128, -1.5 @ +695)
Royal Never Give Up -385 (-1.5 maps @ +100, +1.5 @ -1429)
Total Maps Played: 2.5 (over +122 / under -156)
Kill Total: 25.5 (over -122 / under -106)
Kill Spread: +6.5 @ -109 / -6.5 @ -120
Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 16.5
Time Total: 32:00 (over -105 / under -123)
(Individual player model positional ranking in paranthesis, living number)
BLG – Biubiu (5), Meteor (12), Zeka (11), Aiming (7), Jwei (debut)
RNG – Xiaohu (4), Wei (2), Cryin (6), GALA (11), Ming (9)
RNG are coming off of an absolute shellacking of Team WE that has everyone flying sky high on the team. While I feel Team WE had a particularly down series, it’s still quite impressive that RNG won so decisively in this spot. At 5-0, they sit atop the LPL tied with EDG. Boy our futures are looking pretty good at +3300 and +2500 to win Spring.
BiliBili have had some lowlight moments this season that have made them look pretty bad but I simply can’t help but think that this crew of veterans knows better than some of the mistakes they’ve made this season and will improve as the season progresses. They got off the schneid with a whooping of LGD in their last match, just what the doctor ordered.
We’re going to get a taste of the the BLG Junior squad that has been running over teams in the LDL so far this season with Jwei. The catch here is that Jwei has only played in two games for BLG Junior and both were losses. That’s the extent of his professional career at least on the LDL level. He’s a true rookie. Either they see something special in the kid or this is just a matter of Mark being sick or something. BLG Junior don’t play again until Thursday so this is a strange move.
I don’t know what to make of this whole thing because this is a spot where I saw some potential value in BiliBili. Unless Aiming has been scrimming with him or something I just don’t get it. Support is one of the hardest roles to transition to the professional game in because of the impact vision has on everything. Professional level teams punish scouting and lack of vision significantly better than lower levels and supports tend to struggle more than any other roles besides maybe jungle when they first jump on the scene (unless that jungler has insanely good laners).
Normally this would be too rich a price to pay for RNG and I’d be on BLG but with the substitution I think this is just a stay away. RNG are good but not quite as good as their record and BLG are more than likely better than what we’ve seen so far so I think there’s a chance they pull an upset here even with a sub in. I have enough questions about the support that I’m going to pass though.
I’m not sure how the new player impacts these markets either but the LPL has been going over at a higher clip recently and both of these teams are averaging 26.9 and 27.2 combined kills per game. The books have also adjusted their numbers downward to match the overarching season-long trend of unders cashing over 60% of the time. I like the over kill totals here.
Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 25.5 @ -122 (0.61 units)
Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 25.5 @ -122 (0.61 units)
Kill Total: Map 3 OVER 25.5 @ -122 (0.61 units)