Saturday, July 31st Recap

 

OMG vs LGD Gaming (Net: +2.0 units)

Team WE vs Invictus Gaming (Net: -0.22 units)

 

Hanwha Life vs Nongshim (Net: +0.13 units)

DAMWON Kia vs KT Rolster (Net: -3.25 units)

 

SK Gaming vs Rogue (Net: -1.52 units)

Vitality vs Astralis (Net: +1.0 units)

Schalke 04 vs Fnatic (pending)

Misfits vs MAD Lions (pending)

G2 Esports vs Excel Esports (pending)

 

TSM vs Dignitas (pending)

Immortals vs Golden Guardians (pending)

Team Liquid vs Cloud 9 (pending)

Evil Geniuses vs 100 Thieves (Academy) (pending)

FlyQuest vs CLG (pending)

 

 

LPL Net Total: +1.78 units

LCK Net Total: -3.12 units

LEC Net Total: pending

LCS Net Total: pending

 

Daily Net Total: (pending)

 

 


LPL Summer 2021

Week Nine – Day One

 

 

 

UltraPrime +282 (+1.5 maps @ -105, -1.5 @ +702)

vs

BiliBili Gaming -400 (-1.5 maps @ -120, +1.5 @ -1429)

 

Map Moneyline: UP +214/ BLG -286

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -111 / under -118)

Kill Spread: +7.5 @ -118 / -7.5 @ -111

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 16.5

Time Total: 30:00 (over -128 / under -101)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: +270 / -375 (map), +467 / -772 (series), +121 / -154 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play:  BiliBili series moneyline and -1.5 maps

Starters:

UP – Zs, H4cker, Xiaocaobao, Smlz, ShiauC

BLG – Biubiu, Weiwei, Zeka, Aiming, ppgod

Trends
BLG as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) EST as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 5 1 -493 Matches as Underdogs 1 10 +541
Against Map Spread 3 3 +11 Against Map Spread 3 8 +63
Against Kill Spread 7 8 6.7 Against Kill Spread 11 14 +8
Kill Totals 7 8 25.67 Kill Totals 14 11 25.95
Team Kill Totals 5 10 15.67 Team Kill Totals 14 11 8.41
Game Time Totals 6 9 30.7 Game Time Totals 12 13 29.73
Dragons over 4.5 4 11 Dragons over 4.5 10 15
Towers over 11.5 9 6 Towers over 11.5 16 9

 

 

 

League Rank BiliBili Tale of the Tape UP League Rank
11 -379.6 Gold Diff @ 10 min -727.2 15
8 78.3 Gold Diff @ 15 min -1776.0 17
8 -775.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min -2737.5 15
13.7 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -7.1
8 29.4 Gold Diff / min first 20 -69.2 11
4 419.9 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -171.3 16
6 1834.3 Gold /min (GPM) 1726.0 14
44.4 Gold / min vs Avg -64.0
7 76.6 Gold Diff / min -161.1 14
7 1.0 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -2.2 14
4 1634.9 Kill Agnostic GPM 1571.6 12
5 55.1 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -75.6 14
5 1984.3 GPM in wins 1947.4 9
5 360.9 Gold Diff per min in wins 317.0 11
11 1620.2 GPM in losses 1629.7 10
12 -329.5 Gold Diff per min in losses -368.9 13
80.9 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -156.8
5 36.2 Win-Adjusted GPM -0.6 9
5 41.6 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -2.3 11
7 53.1 Dragon Control % 47.9 12
8 51.5 Herald Control % 31.8 17
1 65.0 Baron Control % 38.6 14
14.0 Quality Wins? 5.0
70.0 % of wins as Quality 50.0

 

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 57.702%
2 1 27.741%
1 2 8.779%
0 2 5.778%
(Series Win): 85.443%

 

UltraPrime pulled off a ridiculous upset against TOP Esports that puts their playoff lives in jeopardy after getting absolutely destroyed in 20 minutes in game one. Props to them but TOP Esports bungled this one pretty badly and clearly disrespected in a number of situations after that first game. Deserved punish.

Sometimes a team gets a confidence boost when there’s nothing on the line anymore and they pull off a win like that but I’m taking BiliBili every single time here. This is another spoiler situation for UltraPrime but a win for BiliBili would just about lock playoffs for them given their game differential and head-to-heads. They’ll be full business mode here.

If you want to back the dogs, UP first dragon at +115 is an advantage play on the market price and BiliBili have only a 44.1% first dragon rate this season as they much prefer to play through herald snowballs when they get the opportunity to. Me? I’m taking the favorites to dominate here. Fade the hype. We’re getting a discount on the favorites because of the upset win over TOP.

My Picks:

Moneyline: BiliBili -400 (4 units)

Spread: BiliBili -1.5 maps @ -120 (0.6 units)

 

 


 

RareAtom +120 (+1.5 maps @ -250, -1.5 @ +305)

vs

Suning Gaming -154 (-1.5 maps @ +188, +1.5 @ -435)

 

Map Moneyline: RA +112 / SN -143

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -119 / under -109)

Kill Spread: +4.5 @ -119 / -4.5 @ -109

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 14.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over +100 / -130)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -108 / -118 (map), -106 / -120 (series), -335 / +243 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play:  RareAtom +1.5, series moneyline, and -1.5 maps

Starters:

RA – Cube, Leyan, FoFo, iBoy, Hang

SN – Bin, SofM, Angel, Huanfeng, ON

Trends
SN as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) RA as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 5 4 -600 Matches as Underdogs 3 3 +106
Against Map Spread 3 6 +26 Against Map Spread 4 2 -241
Against Kill Spread 10 14 6.8 Against Kill Spread 6 9 +5
Kill Totals 9 15 25.06 Kill Totals 7 8 25.50
Team Kill Totals 9 15 15.17 Team Kill Totals 7 8 10.83
Game Time Totals 14 10 30.3 Game Time Totals 6 9 31.17
Dragons over 4.5 11 13 Dragons over 4.5 6 9
Towers over 11.5 11 13 Towers over 11.5 5 10

 

League Rank Suning Tale of the Tape RA League Rank
6 365.6 Gold Diff @ 10 min 619.1 3
2 1561.0 Gold Diff @ 15 min 516.3 6
3 1375.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min 10.8 7
6.4 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 29.9
10 51.4 Gold Diff / min first 20 74.3 6
8 390.1 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 273.1 11
7 1821.8 Gold /min (GPM) 1805.0 10
31.9 Gold / min vs Avg 15.0
5 89.7 Gold Diff / min 61.2 8
6 1.2 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 0.9 8
5 1633.8 Kill Agnostic GPM 1624.0 7
8 47.4 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 47.7 7
10 1944.6 GPM in wins 1935.2 11
8 327.2 Gold Diff per min in wins 316.9 12
5 1660.6 GPM in losses 1609.6 12
1 -222.0 Gold Diff per min in losses -322.5 10
94.0 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 65.4
10 -3.4 Win-Adjusted GPM -12.8 11
8 7.9 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -2.3 12
8 52.9 Dragon Control % 56.2 4
9 50.7 Herald Control % 60.9 3
10 51.2 Baron Control % 51.2 11
13.0 Quality Wins? 12.0
61.9 % of wins as Quality 57.1

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 26.077%
2 1 25.521%
1 2 24.456%
0 2 23.945%
(Series Win): 51.599%

 

What’s challenging about this matchup is that both teams have locked playoffs and are just battling for seeding but they’re also VERY evenly matched across the board. From a philosophical perspective about the game I much prefer the way that RareAtom are playing the game through early gold advantages and snowballing off of herald and first tower. I personally think that is the optimal way to play the game so I’m more partial to them in this matchup and think this should be closer to even money than it is. If you prefer the scaling looks then Suning are probably your team but not at this price and this is a pass.

Keep in mind though that there’s an outside chance that one or both of these teams “no-shows” or sandbags this series since they’ve both locked playoffs. I normally don’t like betting much last week but enough of these angles are advantageous and unless these teams completely shift philosophically from what they’ve been doing it’s tough not to see it playing out a specific way.

RareAtom first herald and sides.

My Picks:

Moneyline: RareAtom +120 (1 unit)

Map Spread: RareAtom -1.5 maps @ +305 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 1 RA first herald @ -116 (1.16 units)

Prop: Map 2 RA first herald @ -116 (1.16 units)


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and you can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

 

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