Sunday, April 4th Recap

 

Team WE vs Suning (Net: +2.67 units)

Gen.G vs T1 (Net: +11.015 units)

Rogue vs Schalke (Net: +5.705 units)

TSM vs 100 Thieves (Net: +2.68 units)

 

Daily Net Total: +22.07 units

 

 

Current Week going into today (March 29th to April 4th):  (pending)

 


 

 

LOL Pro League (LPL)

Spring Playoffs

Round 2 – Day 2

 

 

#4 JD Gaming -147 (-1.5 maps @ +145,  -2.5 @ +442, +1.5 @ -370, +2.5 @ -1667)

vs

#5 FunPlus Phoenix +116 (+1.5 maps @ -185, +2.5 @ -714, -1.5 @ +286, -2.5 @ +781)

 

 

Map ML Price: JDG -137 / FPX +108

Total Maps Played: 3.5 maps (over -357 / under +257), 4.5 maps (over +158 / under -204)

Kill Total: 27.5 (over -120 / under -109)

Kill Spread: -2.5 @ -116 / +2.5 @ -112

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 11.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -139 / under -104)

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

JDG Tale of the Tape FunPlus
973.1 Gold Diff @ 10 min 1817.5
2055.6 Gold Diff @ 15 min 934.5
3068.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min 168.5
67.9 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 116.8
75.7 Gold Diff / min first 20 131.2
407.4 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 748.5
1879.0 Gold /min (GPM) 1960.0
74.5 Gold / min vs Avg 155.5
118.6 Gold Diff / min 208.8
1.6 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 2.8
1654.3 Kill Agnostic GPM 1700.9
75.0 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 137.3
1966.4 GPM in wins 2079.3
292.2 Gold Diff per min in wins 418.4
1645.7 GPM in losses 1699.6
-344.3 Gold Diff per min in losses -248.3
116.7 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 206.9
-0.6 Win-Adjusted GPM 112.2
-39.3 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 86.8
57.0 Dragon Control % 49.7
46.2 Herald Control % 60.0
51.1 Baron Control % 68.1
11.0 Quality Wins? 12.0
45.8 % of wins as Quality 50.0

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

FPX -1.5 maps @ +286 (VERY strong)

FPX series moneyline @ +116 (VERY strong)

FPX +1.5 maps @ -185 (VERY strong)

FPX map moneyline @ +108 (moderate-strong)

FPX -2.5 maps @ +781 (moderate)

FPX +2.5 maps @ -714 (moderate-light)

 

Quantitative Analysis:

 (JDG left / FPX right) 

  • Gold per minute in wins: 8th / 1st
  • Gold Differential per minute in wins: 13th / 2nd
  • Gold per minute in losses: 6th / 2nd
  • Gold Differential per minute in losses: 9th / 3rd
  • Win-adjusted gold per minute: 8th / 1st
  • Win-adjusted gold differential per minute: 13th / 2nd
  • Kill-agnostic gold per minute: 6th / 1st
  • Kill-agnostic gold differential per minute: 7th / 4th
  • Opponent kill-agnostic gold per minute: 6th / 1st
  • Overall Objective Control: 5th / 9th
  • Record vs non-LNG playoff teams (other top 9): JDG 8-8 / FPX 12-8
  • FPX won the regular season match decisively 2-0 in 23 and 25 minutes in week 7

Statistically speaking FPX have the edge as a full team in this series with a few individual positions going the way of JDG from the individual model. As a matter of fact, FPX are one of the more dominant teams in the league with only TOP Esports statisical profile within the same realm. The model considers them the second best team in the LPL and I don’t entirely disagree when you consider that they’ve put up this level of performance with three different junglers over the course of the season.

If you filter FPX and JDG to just their matches against the other non-LNG playoff teams (other top 9) FPX have performed SIGNIFICANTLY better. With those matches filtered out the model projects the following series outcome:

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
0 3 35.139%
1 3 31.028%
2 3 18.266%
3 2 7.619%
3 1 5.398%
3 0 2.550%
(Series Win): 15.567%

(JDG series outcome projection with FPX/JDG only vs non-LNG playoff teams)

JDG Tale of the Tape FunPlus
-478.2 Gold Diff @ 10 min 1573.4
-861.2 Gold Diff @ 15 min 593.5
-1215.8 Gold Diff @ 20 min 50.8
-4.6 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 95.3
-44.8 Gold Diff / min first 20 99.2
270.9 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 536.0
1768.5 Gold /min (GPM) 1901.0
-26.0 Gold / min vs Avg 106.6
-50.8 Gold Diff / min 123.7
-0.7 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 1.6
1596.3 Kill Agnostic GPM 1674.0
-16.4 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 78.2
1920.3 GPM in wins 2043.0
266.3 Gold Diff per min in wins 359.4
1616.7 GPM in losses 1688.1
-368.0 Gold Diff per min in losses -229.8
-37.8 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 136.7
-41.9 Win-Adjusted GPM 80.8
-60.3 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 32.8
45.8 Dragon Control % 46.7
38.7 Herald Control % 57.5
36.8 Baron Control % 60.0
1.0 Quality Wins? 5.0
12.5 % of wins as Quality 41.7

 

JDG only landed a single “quality” win against other top 9 teams and only a 1768 gold per minute despite having an 8-8 record. This is a pretty stark difference. In fact, FPX would STILL grade out as the #4 team in the LPL if you only looked at their matches against the other top 9 teams. JDG would rank 12th, nearly a full standard deviation below FPX and more in multiple categories.

Conclusion:

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
1 3 22.971%
2 3 20.349%
0 3 17.287%
3 2 16.180%
3 1 14.522%
3 0 8.690%
(Series Win): 39.392%

 

(regular JDG projected series win % via model)

 

Qualitative Analysis:

Both of these teams had fairly easy schedules to end the season with roughly one tough match each in their last three weeks. Part of the reason why JDG’s performance against the good teams is so poor is that they were struggling in general in the first half of the season when they played most of them. That said, I think they’re being severely overrated coming into this match because of the win streak they had at the end of the season. Obviously I don’t think JDG have a 15% chance of winning this series, that’d be ridiculous. I do think this is very close to a coin flip series. I’d maybe make this 55-45 (for FPX) and that’s at most, realistically I think this is closer to like a 52-48 just eye test. I do however think FunPlus have an edge here. These two teams are both very good and this could go either way but to me you’re getting plus money with the better team.

The two most volatile matchups in this match are Kanavi and the bottom lanes. Nuguri has been demolishing people even in the games where he’s making mistakes so I’d give him the edge over Zoom individually but let’s call that a wash. Kanavi gets the edge in the jungle overall. The bot lane is fairly evenly matched to me with Lwx being slightly more efficient but both supports being highly volatile. Just film wise I think the individual matchups lineup with the numbers for the most part.

To me FPX are a more well-rounded team and they’re much more explosive with a lead. They have significantly better performance over the course of the entire season against the top teams and that means something to me even though JDG’s poor performance is definitely influenced by their generally rough start in the first half.

Conservatively this is getting plus money on essentially a 50-50 series. If you’re like me and bullish on FPX, you’re getting plus money on a team that should probably be small favorites. JDG do have the bye and the film/preparation advantage which definitely matters here especially because FPX just played a series but to me that knocks this from a 55-45 down to 50-50. The film/preparation advantage is about the only thing I give JDG a significant enough edge in the big picture.

Conclusion: Little to no advantage. Small edge FPX generally but JDG prep advantage.

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 29.796

Time-Implied: 30.947

Underdog Win: 28.854

“Gelati” Total Projection: 29.937 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 48.355% (JDG 42.42% / FPX 54.29%)

Volatility Rating:  JDG 0.30481 / FPX 0.28794 (League Avg: 0.3062)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none

—-

Team Totals:

FPX team total OVER 11.5 @ -125 (VERY VERY strong)

JDG team total OVER 14.5 @ -122 (moderate)

JDG League Average FPX
Combined Kills / game 28.962 26.19 29.530
Combined Kills / min 0.976 0.88 1.084
Kills per win 18.656 18.43 20.094
Kills per loss 8.760 8.82 11.923
Deaths per win 10.04 8.15 9.21
Deaths per loss 19.78 18.07 19.55
Average Margin of Victory (AMOV) 8.46 9.67 9.92
Average Margin of Defeat (AMOD) 11.67 9.75 9.64

What’s interesting is the FPX actually perform better against the good teams and are more aggressive. If we filter using that top 9 filter yet again this is what we get here.

JDG FPX
Combined Kills / game 26.125 30.575
Combined Kills / min 0.898 0.985
Kills per win 17.188 19.521
Kills per loss 6.688 12.781
Deaths per win 8.63 9.67
Deaths per loss 18.63 18.25
Average Margin of Victory (AMOV) 8.63 9.25
Average Margin of Defeat (AMOD) 12.13 8.38

With the filter on the model suddenly likes the under 27.5 and under 28.5 a moderate amount. I’ll be taking those positions.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 30.034 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 30.5 / 30.07

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 38.44% (JDG 45.45% / FPX 31.43%)

Volatility Rating: JDG 0.17657 / FPX 0.18738 (League Avg: 0.16133)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

UNDER 31:00 @ -104 (strong)

 

JDG FPX
Average Game Time 31.13 28.94
Avg Game Time (in wins) 31.80 27.08
Avg Game Time (in losses) 29.363 32.994

And with the vs top 9 filter:

JDG FPX
Average Game Time 30.54 31.32
Avg Game Time (in wins) 32.05 28.83
Avg Game Time (in losses) 29.027 35.050

This is right about on market I’ll pass. I’d expect these to be really lopsided games OR long slugfests. Tough to pin down which.

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -156 (VERY VERY strong)

FPX first tower @ -139 (moderate-strong)

UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -122 (light)

** denotes advantage in a category that the opponent is also strong in, must be considered

I ran the filter again for this situation and none of the firsts showed signifcant value (slight edge to FPX first tower) however, the UNDER 12.5 towers was EVEN STRONGER. I’ll be taking that position here.

 

My Picks:

 

Map Spread: FPX +1.5 maps @ -185 (3.7 units)

Moneyline: FPX +116 (1 unit)

Map Spread: FPX -1.5 maps @ +266 (0.5 units)

Map Spread: FPX -2.5 maps @ +781 (0.25 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 UNDER 27.5 @ -109 (1.09 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 UNDER 27.5 @ -112 (1.12 units)

Kill Total: Map 3 UNDER 27.5 @ -112 (1.12 units)

Kill Total: Map 4 UNDER 27.5 @ -111 (1.11 units)

Kill Total: Map 5 UNDER 27.5 @ -111 (1.11 units)

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -156 (1.56 units)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -172 (1.72 units)

Prop: Map 3 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -167 (1.67 units)

Prop: Map 4 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -156 (1.56 units)

Prop: Map 5 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -156 (1.56 units)

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

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