Thursday, March 4th Recap

 

TOP Esports vs OMG (Net: +3.0 units)

OMG put up a bit of a fight early in game one and a few of these skirmishes, particularly the one around the first dragon could have gone in their favor and it wouldn’t have surprised me. JackeyLove had some suspect Tristana rocket jump choices however Knight got himself way ahead of the curve on Cassiopeia and once TOP took control this game was over.

Game two was a bottom lane snowball off of a won 3v3 that ended up in a 3 for 1 for TOP and a denial of a full wave. Jackey already had a huge lead with the 2-0 and a CS lead before this happened on Aphelios. This game was effectively over with the hyper carry getting ahead early. Jackey is known to throw these kinds of leads so TOP did have to see it through but they did just that en route to a dominant 20 minute victory.

Not really any surprises here. This doesn’t move the needle much for either team for me.

RNG vs LNG (Net: +0.59 units)

RNG have such a strong understanding of what is good and more importantly WHY it’s good this season. They took all three mid lane towers with the second herald buff + Tristana and Azir. With no reliable hard engage besides flash+Alistar combo and VERY limited wave clear from LNG, RNG correctly identified that against a five man siege LNG could do absolutely nothing. That was the main breaking point in this game. LNG did managed to kill RNG when they got a little overzealous going for baron after that mid siege but this was effectively over already. They had such a huge injection of gold and a severe compositional advantage. Graves + Ryze + Samira is just too many low range champions to deal with Lucian, Azir, Lillia, and Tristana. You can’t have that much low range against Azir unless it’s stuff that’s getting on him and killing him.

Game two started off a little more evenly but RNG just kept getting small advantages until a MASSIVE four man magnet storm + lilting lullaby combo just instantly deleted four people mid and this game was blown open for RNG.

RNG don’t have the ridiculously dominant stat lines but they’re so fundamentally sound and intelligent in how they approach the game that it’s tough not to have them at or within the top teams in the league right now. Clean macro wins games folks…

LNG don’t look like a bad team but they’ve been outclassed every single time against the good teams. I’d say they remind me of Afreeca but Afreeca were untouchable by any team lower than them, LNG have some company in the middle of the table that I much prefer over them. I think this team is being overrated a bit based on their start and name brand players. Good but maybe not anything more than that.

Wei continues to add to his resume. He lapped Tarzan in both games and had essentially the game ender ult combo in game two. Kid is utterly ridiculous let’s start putting some respect on his name.

 

KT Rolster vs DRX (Net: -1.635 units)

This game was fairly normal until KT committed to taking the second dragon but didn’t respect the herald top side where Kingen was able to pick up two turrets on Jayce with the herald. DRX had a sizeable 4000+ gold lead going into the fourth dragon fight and it felt like this game was effectively over already with infernal soul looming. Turns out, it was. DRX had a superior scaling composition and we all know what happens when that’s the case and they have a lead.

Game two was the opposite where KT just completely blew out this early game even after Pyosik picked up first blood on Dr. Mundo. Gideon solo’d Doran on an over stay trying to get the wave reset and then picked up another on a botched dive attempted by DRX in the bottom lane. Annnnnnd another one top and suddenly you had a fed Graves to combo with Orianna to delete squishy targets and this got out of hand. DRX did have the late game Seraphine which is EXTREMELY difficult for Jinx and Orianna to play against without their flash up in fights. Wukong+Seraphine wombo combo just deletes any backline carry so this was still winnable for DRX. They did pick up a team fight win at Baron and the fifth and sixth dragons. This was suddenly a game. While sieging the top inhibitor KT grouped up yet again and just ate the full combo and got aced. This game went from an 8000 gold lead to suddenly looking DRX favored. As broken as Seraphine is this was mostly KT’s fault for 1) not build any sort of cleanse effect and 2) grouping to let two or three of your carries get tagged by Seraphine while sieging. This went back-and-forth a bit more but ended with a cataclysmic teamfight at elder that was… just awful by both sides. Ucal whiffed Orianna ult, Bao went back in after getting out with the elder? There’s more to it… this was an ugly, terrible game.

Game three went a lot quicker in terms of pace than the previous game mostly because the advantages on the map were very lopsided. DRX hard won both outer lanes with 2v2 wins in the bottom lane and Pyosik focusing on taking Doran out of the game (a smart choice). Kennen struggles a lot more than some other champions if you focus him out because of his lack of wave clear. If he’s not able to be isolated and abusing his range advantage (just like Gnar actually) then he becomes significantly worse. KT needed their mid and bottom lanes to show up in this game or to overload that side of the map with Gideo and be forcing dragons or dives out. They didn’t. DRX’s bottom lane won outright and mid was a wash so DRX managed to build up a 2-3000 gold lead rather quickly and methodically closed this one out.

This DRX team is going to be tough to bet against until playoffs. Their schedule is soft for one but they’re actually continuing to improve and with this win more or less cemented a playoff position. This puts them into a weird situation in terms of valuation. Their extremely lucky start had them tremendously overvalued, the price never came back down, and now they’re actually building up to be worth their valuation. It’s akin to MAD Lions in Spring 2020 LEC; overrated but also continuing to improve and showing potential. That’s a wicked combo to handicap for and against. Usually you want to bet against the overvalued teams (buy low, sell high, etc) but in this case they’re showing strong enough fundamentals that unless they’re against a legitimately good team (Gen.G or DAMWON, maybe Hanwha maybe T1) then I think their slow-and-steady, methodical approach just isn’t going to be punished consistently enough in the LCK. How the market develops here is going to be interesting.

I’m just going to say it… KT are flat out stupid so often that it’s beginning to irritate me and not just because I’ve backed them a few times this season either. Use your head guys… Don’t overload for a cloud drake when herald is on the map… How about don’t group for the wombo combo? I know it’s harder than it looks when sieging and inhibitor but you can still do and you’re professional players… Man this team is frustrating. I’ve also seen enough from Ucal to call it a season for him. I don’t like to take these hard stances and advocate against players but Dove has outperformed him when he’s played and he’s straight up not playing well at all this season. This isn’t a three strikes you’re out, this is like fifteen strikes. Put Dove in.

Fredit Brion vs T1 (Net: -1.94 units)

I was no expecting to cash those under 12.5 tower wagers in this fashion that’s for sure….

Brion legitimately played a great series here and it reminded me a lot of the DAMWON series earlier this season. That’s it. It wasn’t like a particularly poor showing from T1, they had a few small errors but they were just outmaneuvered early and snowballed on. T1 looked lost once they were behind which has been a recurring theme that seemingly correlates with how young a roster they decide to start that day. I don’t know if it’s signal or noise but there seems to be something to it…  That’s two good series this season from Brion. Just two and they just so happen to have been against T1 and DAMWON. What a weird league…

I stuck to my pre-game positions in this one but I’d be lying to you if I remained confident when I saw the FULL T1 YOUNG roster announced (as in no Teddy OR Faker OR Cuzz). I’m not really surprised but I definitely should have considered just hedging out and observing. I didn’t. The “young” or T1 Junior as I call them just seem to make more questionable decisions. I have no idea if this is happenstance or due to a lack of in-game leadership but it’s become so consistent that they’ll be inconsistent that it’s a bit frustrating.

 

Parlays: 4-0 (Net: +4.26 units)

 

LPL Net Total: +3.59 units

LCK Net Total: -3.575 units

 

Daily Net Total: +4.275 units (ROI: +10.05%)

Week of March 1st-7th: +10.525 units (ROI: +10.8%)

 

 


 

LOL Pro League (China)

Week 7 – Day 5

 

eStar +796 (+1.5 maps @ +231, -1.5 @ +1400)

vs

JD Gaming -1429 (-1.5 maps @ -312)

 

Map ML Price: EST +487 / JDG -833

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +264 / under -370)

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -115 / under -114)

Kill Spread: +9.5 @ -115 / -9.5 @ -114

 Team Kill Totals: 7.5 / 16.5

Time Total: 30:00 (over -118 / under -111)

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

eStar +1.5 maps @ +231 (VERY VERY strong)

eStar series moneyline @ +796 (VERY strong)

eStar map moneyline @ +487 (VERY strong)

UNDER 2.5 maps @ +264 (VERY strong)

 

I can tell you before I even go into discussing this matchup that it’s just going to be an ugly, hold your nose play on the underdog because JDG don’t deserve to be laying this kind of money to anybody with how they’ve looked this season and that includes recent form. eStar are a pretty bad team but they’re capable of snowballing an early game advantage on someone. You’re going to see a lot of the same lines of thinking that I discussed for the JDG vs TT series a few days ago so you can refresh on that breakdown as well.

I do composite measures for all sorts of statistics as a way to give more context to rate statistics in particular which don’t always tell the full story, especially of a teams recent performance. I blend season long and trending for almost everything instead of relying solely on one or the other.

 

Do these teams really look that much different? Different to the tune of a 90-10 no-vig price on this series?

You could argue the FPX shellacking is skewing this needlessly downward for JDG. They’ve been better of late but I just wanted to illustrate to people why I’m continue to not buy this team. Most people, myself included, consider eStar one of the worst teams in the league. It’s really not all that different. JDG are rated extremely low relative to public perception in my objective/economy model as well with  below average rating and ranked at #11 in a tier with LNG, BiliBili, and TT.

Obviously handicapping is a little bit of both the art and the science. The art to this is that JDG do have a very good top pairing with Zoom and Kanavi who are still two of the best players at their positions in the league while eStar’s pairing one of the worst. JDG have also looked better of late and they’ve won series against Suning and WE (both sweeps) before falling to FPX. However, between they actually struggled against TT, a team I’d not only rate similarly to eStar but one that plays similarly as well.

JDG are not as weak as the model thinks but I do think it sheds some light on things and maybe they’re not all the name brand and reputation makes them out to be. The bottom lane has been atrocious and Yagao seems hooked on his picks even when they’re not particularly good in a given situation. They’ve been losing drafts and when teams don’t just take the fight against them at herald they look lost.

I’m going to be making a small play on the underdog here. It’s well within eStar’s range to blow out an early game on the back of ShiauC or H4cker. They don’t do it consistently but it happens enough and JDG are poor enough in the early game that I’ll always back teams against them at this number. It’s just too ridiculous.

Quick note: This is a critical series for JDG to take care of business in for the grand scheme of things when it comes to the playoff picture. I don’t see them losing this but this number is just stupid and I’m willing to take a light shot on the underdogs.

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 25.207

Time-Implied: 27.65

Underdog Win: 26.868

“Gelati” Total Projection: 26.66 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 59.52% (JDG 52.38% / EST 66.67%)

Volatility Rating: JDG 0.32825 / EST 0.2241 (League Avg: 0.3026)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

eStar team total OVER 7.5 @ +101 (VERY strong)

JDG team total UNDER 16.5 @ -106 (very strong)

(alt) Kill Total OVER 23.5 kills @ -139 (moderate)

Kill Total OVER 24.5 kills @ -115 (moderate)

(alt) Kill Total OVER 25.5 @ +104 (moderate)

 

If we look at how eStar have done against teams in the middle of the table around JDG:

vs V5: 22-4 win, 6-16 loss, 9-18 loss

vs LNG: 9-16 loss, 6-18 loss

vs BLG: 14-4 win, 6-18 loss, 11-19 loss

vs TT: 17-14 loss, 20-6 win, 12-17 loss

 

Lot of close calls here. Was hoping we’d find something actionable. eStar are averaging 8.619 kills per loss and have gone over their 7.5 team total in 75% of games regardless of winning or losing. I’m going to take the over here, especially because I think this series could get chippy with how these two play… but i like the JDG under here as well and you know what that means…

eStar kill spreads!

This is exactly the kind of spot you want to take kill spreads. JDG are 8-9 against the kill spread as favorites with an average spread of -5.1 kills. In the situations where they’ve been favored by 9.5 they’ve only covered in one out of five attempts (vs TT and RW).

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 30.788 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 31.24 / 30.87

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total:  44.64% (JDG 47.62% / EST 41.67%)

Volatility Rating: JDG 0.18306 / EST 0.18323 (League Avg: 0.15621)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

UNDER 30:00 @ -111 (light)

 

I’d actually lean toward the over here but I’m just going to pass.

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

eStar first blood @ -102 (very strong)

UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -145 (moderate)

eStar first herald @ +168 (moderate)

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -370 (light)

 

I don’t want to have too much exposure to eStar here but the first blood is a big gap (38% vs 66%) and heralds are roughly tied and you are getting a FAT +168 for the dogs. Bigger edge on first blood but it’s a more volatile prop. I’ll take herald for half stake.

 

My Picks:

 

Map Spread: eStar +1.5 maps @ +235 (1 unit)

Moneyline: eStar +796 (0.25 units)

Map Spread: eStar -1.5 maps @ +1400 (0.1 units)

Kill Spread: Map 1 eStar +9.5 kills @ -115 (1.15 units)

Kill Spread: Map 2 eStar +9.5 kills @ -115 (1.15 units)

Kill Spread: Map 3 eStar +9.5 kills @ -119 (1.19 units)

Prop: Map 1 eStar first herald @ +168 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 2 eStar first herald @ +168 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 3 eStar first herald @ +168 (0.5 units)

 


 

 

Victory Five +210 (+1.5 maps @ -154, -1.5 @ +487)

vs

Suning -263 (-1.5 maps @ +121, +1.5 @ -833)

 

Map ML Price: V5 +156 / SN -204

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +116 / under -149)

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -118 / under -111)

Kill Spread: +6.5 @ -125 / -6.5 @ -104

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 14.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -101 / under -128)

 

 

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

V5 +1.5 maps @ -154 (light)

V5 series moneyline @ +210 (light)

OVER 2.5 maps @ +116 (light)

V5 map moneyline @ +156 (miniscule)

 

This match has huge playoff implications for both teams as they’re right next to each other in the standings.

I made this my Pick of the Week on The Gold Card Podcast this week where I’ve been ICE COLD of late. Perhaps I doomed myself… definitely could have made a better selection HOWEVER…

Suning have actually owned Victory Five. They won both regular season meetings last year and took them 3-1 in the Summer quarterfinals and really these teams haven’t changed much so I think comparing priors actually makes sense in this scenario.

The overall thought process was that Suning have looked much better of late but they’re still not showing a lot of clarity of intent, even in what I’d say have been their two best series of the season. They’re just individually outplaying and sometimes they win on cross-map plays. Recently they’ve done this well, it’s been far from consistent on a game-to-game basis over the season so I’m skeptical.

If you think what we’re seeing right now is what an average Suning game looks like the rest of the season then you should back Suning moneyline here. This is relatively cheap if you want to go just based on recent performance. However, if you think they’re playing at a bit of a ceiling or toward the top of their range of outcomes, like I do, then expect some correction and back the dogs.

Victory Five have really only beaten weak teams this season which is rather damning for them but they are more than capable of beating teams that are better than they are because they’re very VERY polished at what they do. They’re still one of the best all-in tempo teams in the world. Everybody knows what’s coming and good teams still struggle with them even if that hasn’t resulted in as many wins this season.

I’m not nearly as bullish on this position as I was on the podcast I must admit but I do think Victory Five are worth a play here. With a lot of these “on the bubble” playoff teams I think we should expect the kitchen sink to be thrown at these matches. Victory Five have they hardest remaining schedule in the LPL with JDG, RareAtom, TOP, FunPlus, and Invictus remaining. This is going to be their Alamo and I think the number is just a shade too heavy handed for Suning.  I’ll be indexing mostly into the +1.5 maps. Suning likely take this down but I’m very confident Victory Five will get a map and make this a competitive series. I like the prop markets here more.

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 25.938

Time-Implied: 23.698

Underdog Win: 25.898

“Gelati” Total Projection: 24.086 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 42.67% (SN 33.33% / V5 52%)

Volatility Rating: SN 0.33796 / V5 0.30006 (League Avg: 0.3026)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

V5 OVER 9.5 kills @ -115 (strong)

(alt) Kill Total UNDER 23.5 @ +116 (moderate)

Kill Total UNDER 24.5 @ -105 (moderate)

Suning UNDER 14.5 kills @ -108 (moderate)

(alt) Kill Total: UNDER 25.5 @ -120 (moderate)

 

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 30.936 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 30.63 / 30.72

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total:  37.81% (SN 47.62% / V5 28%)

Volatility Rating: SN 0.18700 / V5 0.1384 (League Avg: 0.15621)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

UNDER 32:00 @ -128 (moderate-strong)

 

V5 win fast AND lose fast. Suning win fast and lose slow (mostly). Most signs point to this being a blazing fast series one way or the other. If you can find a less juiced under 32:00 than this I think that’s actually my favorite play in this series but read below for more prop options. I’ll still be playing it.

 

 

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

V5 first tower @ +106 (strong)

V5 first herald @ +105 (strong)

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -238 (moderate)

UNDER 1.5 barons @ -189 (moderate)

UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -106 (moderate)

 

This is why I love betting Victory Five series. Really both of these teams although it just took me longer to realize it with Suning. Both of these teams average 29.39 (Suning) and 28.58 (V5) minutes per win. V5 are averaging 29.78 in losses while Suning are much slower a shade over 36 minutes. These are going to be fast and furious one way or the other.

Really I just want all of these but I don’t want to overindex into this game script. I think the best “value” is actually the under 12.5 towers which could still happen in a longer game. It’s the biggest edge on the market price of the under options unless you can get a less juicy under 32:00 than -128. Really I think any of these are great angles of attack and you could even parlay them with other games on this slate.

 

My Picks:

 

Map Spread: V5 +1.5 maps @ -154 (1.54 units)

Moneyline: V5 +210 (0.25 units)

Map Spread: V5 -1.5 maps @ +487 (0.1 units)

Time Total: Map 1 UNDER 32:00 @ -128 (1.28 units)

Time Total: Map 2 UNDER 32:00 @ -137 (1.37 units)

Time Total: Map 3 UNDER 32:00 @ -130 (1.3 units)

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -238 (2.38 units)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -233 (2.33 units)

Prop: Map 3 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -233 (2.33 units)

 

 


LOL Champions Korea

Week 7 – Day 2

 

 

Nongshim RedForce +230 (+1.5 maps @ -143, -1.5 @ +566)

vs

Hanwha Life Esports -286 (-1.5 maps @ +112, +1.5 @ -1000)

 

Map ML Price: NS +171/ HLE -222

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +121 / under -154)

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -115 / under -114)

Kill Spread: +5.5 @ -106 / -5.5 @ -122

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 15.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -123 / under -105)

 

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

Hanwha series moneyline @ -286 (strong)

Hanwha -1.5 maps @ +112 (strong)

Hanwha map moneyline @ -222 (moderate)

UNDER 2.5 maps @ -154 (light)

 

Hanwha are unorthodox for sure but they’re getting the job done with a completely different look in the LCK and have firmly cemented themselves in that “best-of-the-rest” tier right behind Gen.G and DAMWON (whether you want to include T1 in that is up for debate…). Really this team has just been The Chovy Show. I cannot emphasize enough just how insane a season he’s having. We had a bit of a love fest for him on the podcast last night so check that out but he’s leading the league in every single differential statistic, #2 in damage per gold per minute, #2 in wards cleared per minute, #2 in vision score per minute, #1 in CS per minute and gold per minute. He’s a savage and I’ll touch on it in a bit but he gets a juicy matchup against one of the worst mid laners in the league in Bay.

Nongshim did break their losing streak with a dominant win over Sandbox although I’m not sure what to think of that at this point. Still, they played about as well as we’ve seen them play this season and it was decisive. Their only match wins this season have been against Sandbox twice, Brion, and that weird one against KT Rolster. Not exactly impressive.

This is a “must win” for Nongshim. At 4-8 with only six series left to go they’ve got a lot of ground to cover and still have DAMWON on their schedule next week. Realistically you’re going to need to get to 8 or 9 match wins depending on how dominant Gen.G and DAMWON are the rest of the way out so they have to take four or five of their final matches. You can expect them to throw the kitchen sink at this.

Hanwha could move a long way towards securing a playoff berth and better seeding with a win here. They do have Gen.G later this week so there’s a chance we have a bit of a look-ahead situation going on but since this is their first match of the week I think they’ll be prepared for this. Nongshim are a very easy team to attack (mid…). My only real concern for Hanwha here is that the outer lanes for Nongshim have been decent this season and Peanut is capable of taking over any given game in the jungle especially if we get toward a meta that’s more suited for him.

The Chovy gap is just so hard to ignore here…  I just don’t see how they overcome this and he’s playing out of his damn mind at the moment. They could blind pick Chovy and get advantageous matchups for the outer lanes. I’ll note that Nongshim actually have a decent kill agnostic economy rating (much better than Hanwha’s actually). They’re doing some things right but they just get completely blown out the second anything goes wrong in most of their games which is not indicative of a good macro team. We’ve seen stranger things happen (see this morning) but I think Hanwha are the side here regardless of the lineup. Unless Chovy doesn’t play I like them to win and sweep.

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 27.905

Time-Implied: 26.82

Underdog Win: 26.937

“Gelati” Total Projection: 27.295 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 44.76% (HLE 65.52% / NS 24%)

Volatility Rating: HLE 0.29196 / NS 0.35410 (League Avg: 0.3170)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

Nongshim team total UNDER 9.5 kills @ -114 (moderate)

(alt) Kill Total UNDER 25.5 @ -127 (light)

Kill Total UNDER 24.5 @ -114 (light)

HLE team total OVER 15.5 @ -103 (miniscule)

 

Playing team total unders in Hanwha games is just a dangerous proposition. They’ve been the bloodiest team in Korea at 29.26 combined kills per game with an 18.1 / 9.86 split KPW/DPW. Nongshim are also a 10.3 KPL (and 17.07 KPW). The game total over feels way too easy here. Hanwha have gone over the total in 13 out of 18 games as favorites with an average kill spread of 23.79 kills and have eclipsed the 24.5 total in 65.5% of their games. The real question here is whether Nongshim do their part in contributing to this which is what the model is concerned about. The first meeting between these two was the bloodiest series we’ve seen in Korea in the last two years (unless I’m remembering incorrectly). 29 was the low mark in the three game series. I’d expect to see something similar again. This is one of my favorite plays this week.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 31.944 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 32.16 / 32.49

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 50.14% (HLE 48.276% / NS 52%)

Volatility Rating: HLE 0.10023 / NS 0.16789 (League Avg: 0.15110)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none

 

Pass.

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

Nongshim first dragon @ +108 (strong)

UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -103 (moderate)

OVER 1.5 barons @ +141 (light)

 

Hanwha have the edge in every objective category and there’s not a good enough plus number on them to play Nongshim in any of these markets. I do like the under 4.5 dragons with the model.

 

 

 

My Picks:

 

Moneyline: Hanwha Life -286 (2.86 units)

Map Spread: Hanwha Life -1.5 maps @ +112 (1 unit)

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 25.5 kills @ -102 (1.02 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 25.5 kills @ -119 (1.19 units)

Kill Total: Map 3 OVER 25.5 kills @ -118 (1.18 units)

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -103 (1.03 units)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -119 (1.19 units)

Prop: Map 3 UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -119 (1.19 units)

 

 


Gen.G -1111 (-1.5 maps @ -263, +1.5 @ -3333)

vs

Liiv Sandbox +697 (+1.5 maps @ +198, -1.5 @ +1012)

 

Map ML Price: GEG -625 / LSB +400

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +237 / under -323)

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -109 / under -120)

Kill Spread: -8.5 @ -128 / +8.5 @ -101

Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 6.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -123 / under -105)

 

 

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

Sandbox +1.5 maps @ +198 (moderate-strong)

OVER 2.5 maps @ +237 (moderate)

Sandbox map moneyline @ +400 (moderate)

Sandbox series moneyline @ +697 (light)

 

Gen.G are the highest rated team in the LCK slightly ahead of DAMWON currently. Sandbox have been steadily downtrending but are still ahead of a handful of teams sitting at #6. Obviously this is a case of the numbers not telling the full story and why it’s critically important to find a balance between the two.

Sandbox were doing a lot of things well for most of the season and just didn’t have the wins to show for it because of catastrophic mid and late game errors. They’re significantly more talented than their bottom of the table peers but just can’t seem to get across the finish line. In recent matches they’ve become completely derailed and it looks like this team might have finally had enough and entered tilt mode. They’ve begun overplaying way too hard in the early game and that has cost them. They’re one of the worst underperforming rosters relative to their numbers that I’ve seen in my many years of handicapping professional LOL. They’re an outlier but at some point if a team just hasn’t improved you have to cut bait.

That said, I’m going to talk through my strategy for this one because I might be backing the dogs.

A team with nothing to lose and talented players is a terrifying thing for a lot of favorites but I think there is a VERY strong chance we see Karis and/or Flawless and/or Burdol in this series for Gen.G especially if they want to give the veterans time to prepare for Hanwha on Saturday, a much more important match for playoff seeding. If that’s the case I like Sandbox way more but the question is more about your individual risk tolerance. If you think this number doesn’t move that much and you can get a decent price on Sandbox I think you take it. If you can still get +120 or better on the +1.5 and +450 or better on the moneyline I think you just fire it if we see the subs announced during the T1 series.

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 25.273

Time-Implied: 24.112

Underdog Win: 22.941

“Gelati” Total Projection: 24.561 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total:  56.21% (Gen.G 40% / LSB 72.41%)

Volatility Rating: Gen.G 0.31399 / LSB 0.29196 (League Avg: 0.3170)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

Sandbox team total OVER 6.5 @ -119 (VERY VERY strong)

Gen.G team total UNDER 15.5 @ -105 (strong)

(alt) Kill Total OVER 22.5 @ -130 (moderate)

Kill Total OVER 23.5 @ -109 (moderate)

(alt) Kill Total OVER 24.5 @ -103 (light)

 

Gen.G average 7.57 deaths per win and Sandbox are averaging 9.55 kills per loss. I also think we get an added bonus here because of the potential for substitutions. I absolutely love this team total over for Sandbox. 6.5 is extremely low and they’re not a team devoid of talent or the ability to jump out, they’re just terrible closers. Slam dunk.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 32.616 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 32.79 / 32.64

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 57.64% (GEG 56.67% / LSB 58.62%)

Volatility Rating: GEG 0.16367 / LSB 0.10023 (League Avg: 0.15110)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OVER 31:00 @ -123 (light)

 

Depends on starters or not. I think with the starters in this is a pass. I like the over quite a bit more with the subs in for Gen.G.

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

Sandbox first herald @ +129 (VERY strong)*

Sandbox first tower @ +164 (strong)

Gen.G first blood @ -179 (strong)

OVER 1.5 barons @ +198 (moderate)

Sandbox first dragon @ +120 (moderate)

OVER 4.5 dragons @ +117 (light)

OVER 11.5 towers @ +111 (very light)

 

Gen.G are an amazing objective team with well over 50% for most of the firsts. Coincidentally, Sandbox are a very good first herald team, better than Gen.G in fact and we’re getting a juicy plus number. Gen.G are quite good so this isn’t a windmill slam but I do like that position quite a bit.

 

My Picks:

 

Map Spread: Sandbox +1.5 maps @ +198 (1 unit)

Moneyline: Sandbox +697 (0.25 units)

Map Spread: Sandbox -1.5 maps @ +1012 (0.1 units)

Kill Total (team): Map 1 Sandbox OVER 6.5 kills @ -119 (1.19 units)

Kill Total (team): Map 2 Sandbox OVER 6.5 kills @ -116 (1.16 units)

Kill Total (team): Map 3 Sandbox OVER 6.5 kills @ -116 (1.16 units)

Prop: Map 1 Sandbox first herald @ +129 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 2 Sandbox first herald @ +111 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 3 Sandbox first herald @ +112 (0.5 units)

 


 

LOL European Championship (LEC)

Week 7 – Day 1

 

 

LEC Macro Trends through six weeks (65 games):

 

Favorites are 45 – 20 straight up, 32-33 against the kill spread (avg: -6.12 kills)

Kill Totals have gone UNDER in 35 out of 65 (avg: 25.48 kills)

Time Totals have gone under in 33 out of 65 (one push, avg time: 32.32 minutes)

Favorites have covered their team total in 30 out of 65 (avg total: 15.15 kills)

Underdogs have covered their team total in 34 out of 65 (avg total: 9.84 kills)

Dragon totals (4.5 dragons) have gone under in 33 out of 65

Towers have gone over 11.5 in 42 out of 65

 


 

Team Vitality +171 vs SK Gaming -222

 

Kill Total: 22.5 (over -118 / under -111)

Kill Spread: +5.5 @ -109 / -5.5 @ -120

Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 13.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -130 / under +100)

SK Gaming have an average margin of victory of 11 kills this season. For the most part they’ve been the gatekeepers of the LEC handling the teams worse than them with the occasional punch up against the big dogs. Their five losses are to Excel, Fnatic, Rogue, G2, and Schalke but they’ve won their past five straight. Vitality are on the other side of the spectrum. They’ve lost all but two games this season and while they aren’t mathematically eliminated, they are all but done for Spring and looking forward to Summer. This can have a few different effects on teams, for most there’s actually a bump once the pressure is off. Vitality actually haven’t been performing as poorly as their record indicates. They’ve made a handful of really dumb decisions in games that were all but over to throw them and even have had a few punch up performances of their own like their win against Fnatic.

What irks me about SK Gaming is that they consistently get themselves behind in games but always seem to find the proper time to strike thanks to some MVP caliber play from Treatz this season. What concerns me is how repeatable and/or reliable that is as a strategy. The longer a season goes, the better teams get at closing out games with a lead so I don’t think you want to be playing from the back foot as often as SK do, this is just like DRX in the LCK.

SK are perfect as favorites and against the spread as favorites this season but Vitality have been a VERY feisty underdog covering the spread (avg spread +6) in 9 out of their 12 appearances as underdogs in large part because of low kill totals in their games combined with large spreads. That has been accounted for in the 5.5 number here.

I wanted to back Vitality here with SK potentially taking their foot off the gas a little but honestly SK have been the comeback team and Vitality haven’t shown the ability to close a game out with a lead yet this season so I can’t do it. The combination of nothing to lose and SK maybe coasting a bit makes me a little hesitant but I think SK kill spread is a nice play here.

My Picks:

Kill Spread: SK Gaming -5.5 kills @ -120 (1.2 units)

 


 

Schalke 04 +131 vs MAD Lions -169

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -111 / under -118)

Kill Spread: +4.5 @ -112 / -4.5 @ -116

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 13.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -116 / under -112)

After a bit of a rough patch the MAD Lions have picked up wins in four of their past five appearances albeit most of those against weaker competition while Schalke are in the midst of a catastrophic collapse after a strong start droping their past six games after a four game win streak.

You essentially have to plant your flag on this series. Do you think Schalke are galvanized with the “backs against the wall” mentality or do you think the stress and all of the off the field issues with the organization are going to finally break them? I’m not a narrative guy but it’s hard to ignore that this team performs much better when the pressure is one and that they’ve had a handful of just awful drafts during this stretch. Schalke are not a bad team they’re just playing the game on hard mode recently and that’s mounted into this ugly losing streak.

I generally don’t like MAD Lions as favorites because they’re volatile. Their bottom lane still hasn’t really improved their overall decision making, they’ve just been getting away with it in their past few matches. I’m really not a fan of how Carzzy and Kaiser have been playing in this meta which is weird because you’d think it’s perfectly suited for them. Still, this is a very talented roster that should be even better than this.

This is a bit of a “gut” handicap, one more based on qualitative looks but I like Schalke here. The numbers would end up telling you this is likely a short value on MAD Lions based on overall performance this season but again, I’m not a fan of backing volatile teams as moderate or more favorites in best-of-one leagues unless the team they’re against is fairly incompetent. With a few easy adjustments to their draft, that I have to imagine they’ve realized with enough evidence now, Schalke should be able to get back on track.

The under kill total is also appealing in this matchup but I think it’s a little too dependent on my position that Schalke win to justify a position.

My Picks:

Moneyline: Schalke +131 (0.5 units)

 


 

Misfits -217 vs Astralis +166

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -119 / under -110)

Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -114 / +5.5 @ -115

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over +100 / under -130)

 

I discussed this one quite a bit on the podcast this week but I simply don’t trust a team like Misfits as decent sized favorites like this. Astralis are not a particularly good team but neither are Misfits and Astralis have looked better of late. I know Misfits have talked a lot about this “new identity” and everything but I’m not buying it and we haven’t really seen that much evidence of a paradigm shift either. That said, I don’t think this is a good enough number to back the dogs either so I’ll be passing on this contest. Astralis are also not techincally eliminated yet. Obviously they’d more than likely need to win out (or go 4-1 and get a LOT of help) but this is arguably the most important contest in that since Misfits are one of the teams in their way. Either they’re throwing the kitchen sink at this or they’re carefree and going to have nothing to lose and I hate betting against teams in that scenario because you don’t know what to expect.

Those factors lead me to think the Kill Total OVER is where you want to be in this contest. This could get a little wild.

My Picks:

Kill Total: OVER 24.5 @ -119 (1.19 units)

 


 

Fnatic -357 vs Excel Esports +256

 

Kill Total: 28.5 (over -127 / under -103)

Kill Spread: -8.5 @ -114 / +8.5 @ -115

Team Kill Totals: 17.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over +106 / under -139)

This is a really big number and I really don’t like laying this kind of chalk with a team as volatile as Fnatic but I think there’s just enough of a talent advantage and more importantly a stylistic advantage that it’s hard not to like the favorites here. Excel have been AWFUL in the early game and Fnatic have been one of the better and more explosive early game teams not just in the LEC but the entire world. This is a matchup from hell for Excel and unless they show us they’re willing to brawl early in the draft this looks like a slam dunk under time total and under kills as well given that narrative. I know Fnatic have been just obliterating people and a crazy bloody team but Excel have beeb much more the “roll over and die” while trying to scale team and if they try that this is going to be over before Fnatic can even rack up that many kills.

My Picks:

Time Total: UNDER 32:00 @ -139 (1.39 units)

Kill Total: UNDER 28.5 @ -103 (1.03 units)

 


 

G2 Esports -156 vs Rogue +123

 

Kill Total: 28.5 (over -104 / under -125)

Kill Spread: -4.5 @ -110 / +4.5 @ -119

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 11.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -128 / under -102)

 

 

 Another one we discussed at length on the podcast this week. I think you could make the case for either side in this contest. I personally think G2 are better but not by much and I think it’s close enough to take a shot on Rogue here. G2 blew out the first contest and I think that recency bias is sticking in people’s minds a bit too too much. Rogue are legit, they have one of the best kill-agnostic economy ratings in the world (better than G2’s by a substantial margin) as well as elite level traditional economy measurements. They’ve also been a slightly better early game team than G2 overall.

As I mentioned you could make the case for either side here but set your handicap and bet the number not the team you like more. I think this should be closer to even money, maybe a -120 / +100 range so I’ll take the value on the dog a second time in this head-to-head.

My Picks: 

Moneyline: Rogue +123 (1 unit)

 


 

LOL Championship Series (LCS)

Week 5 – Day 1

 

LCS Macro Trends through six weeks (60 games):

 

Favorites are 41 – 19 straight up, 26-34 against the kill spread (avg: -6.1 kills)

Kill Totals have gone OVER in 31 out of 60 (avg: 24.05 kills)

Time Totals have gone UNDER in 33 out of 60 (avg time: 32.32 minutes)

Favorites have covered their team total in 31 out of 60 (avg total: 14.5 kills)

Underdogs have covered their team total in 33 out of 60 (avg total: 8.97 kills)

Dragon totals (4.5 dragons) have gone UNDER in 30 out of 60

Towers have gone OVER 11.5 in 33 out of 60

 


Team Solo Mid -233 vs Dignitas +177

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -109 / under -120)

Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -105 / +6.5 @ -123

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over +106 / under -139)

This LCS card is full of landmines so proceed with caution.

I’m fairly certain TSM is the side here but as you’ll see with a number of the matches this weekend, I’m not exactly confident in their ability to take care of business. Despite favorites dominating in the LCS overall, there’s been very little consitency outside of Cloud 9. TSM seem legitimately good and I think Dignitas, while obviously not as good as their record, are still a decent team with solid fundamentals. This is a classic “dog or pass” situation.

 

My Picks:

no wagers

 


100 Thieves -147 vs Evil Geniuses +115

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -122 / under -106)

Kill Spread: -2.5 @ -115 / +2.5 @ -114

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 11.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over +105 / under -137)

Ryoma is getting the start for 100 Thieves here. Does this seem like strange timing to anyone else? I rarely react much to substitutions unless they’re known, actionable quantities but we’ve seen Ryoma before and he’s been unimpressive. Maybe they just need a change of pace to break out of this funk? Maybe he had a good scrim week? Damonte sick maybe? I don’t know what’s going on but the timing is weird to me and in the middle of a bit of a slump after Ssumday just went into an interview emphasizing how important this weekend is for their mental game.

I’m not sure if I’m buying all of this and I don’t want to put too much stock into it but it is a bit of a weird vibe going on from the 100 Thieves camp.

I was going to take EG either way here. I think these are the kinds of positions we want to back them. Both of these squads have played in some absolute clown fiestas as well so I think the over kill total is in play here even at a very high 25.5 but I’m just going to stick to the EG moneyline.

My Picks:

Moneyline: Evil Geniuses +115 (1 unit)

 


 

FlyQuest +285 vs Cloud 9 -400

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -110 / under -119)

Kill Spread: +8.5 @ -109 / -8.5 @ -120

Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 16.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over +113 / under -147)

 

I said it on the podcast this week but unless it’s another good team I’m just not getting in the way of this Cloud 9 roster at the moment. Blaber manages to find a way to blow out every single early game and until teams show they can stop him I’m gonna pay the respect. FlyQuest have really underwhelmed me so far but I do think they’ll continue to improve over the course of this year. Right now though, they just don’t have it.

The kill spread here is a bit too lofty but I do like the under dragons or tower totals.

My Picks:

Prop: UNDER 11.5 towers @ -172 (1.72 units)

(parlay leg see next)

 


Golden Guardians +548 vs Team Liquid -1000

 

Kill Total: 22.5 (over -105 / under -123)

Kill Spread: +9.5 @ -114 / -9.5 @ -115

Team Kill Totals: 6.5 / 15.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over +116 / under -152)

I know Liquid haven’t been quite as dominant as everyone expected but I also think this team will round into form the more the season goes. The talent gap here is just immense and I can’t find any justification other than “Liquid beat themselves” to back GGS even at this ridiculously lofty number.

I’m going to be parlaying Liquid and C9 tower total under 12.5 @ -109 and under 11.5 @ +202

My Picks: 

Prop: UNDER 11.5 towers @ -110 (1.1 units)

Parlay (2): C9/FLY UNDER 12.5 towers + GGS/TL UNDER 12.5 towers @ -109 (1.09 units)

Parlay (2): C9/FLY UNDER 11.5 towers + GGS/TL UNDER 11.5 towers @ +202 (0.5 units)

 


 

Immortals -118 vs Counter Logic Gaming (CLG) -108

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -105 / under -123)

Kill Spread: -2.5 @ -118 / +2.5 @ -111

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 11.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -128 / under -102)

 

CLG are a team that I expect to continue improving and they got off the schneid with their first win after a string of thrown games. I’d expect them to come in with confidence and yet another week stronger with the full lineup of veterans finally assembled. I don’t think Immortals are bad to the level of say the Golden Guardians but they really haven’t been able to piece together any kind of consistent performance. This is admittedly a bit of a gut handicap but give me CLG.

My Picks:

Kill Spread (alt): CLG +0.5 kills @ +109 (1 unit)

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Leave a Reply