Thursday, March 25th Recap

 

KT Rolster vs Nongshim RedForce (Net: +1.8075 units)

While I’m not entirely sure anybody really won this series, KT pulled out the win in a way fitting for their name, a hybrid between “roller” and “coaster” (Rolster). I had a choice joke on Twitter about it if you get a chance check that out.

KT find spectacular ways to lose games and nearly did it again in game three of this series after accomplishing the apparently common feat yet again in game one but ultimately got the job done in this absolute circus of a series. This was critically important to keeping the weekend slate interesting because of Nongshim clinched playoffs with a win this morning there would have been a handful of matches that simply didn’t matter anymore between the lower seeded teams but now with the stakes high we should have some riveting action this weekend instead of meaningless contests.

I’m not going to spend time critiquing this series because neither team really played well beside KT in game two. So many mistakes, if either make playoffs they’re going to get absolutely destroyed.

Hanwha Life vs Fredit Brion (Net: -1.5 units)

Going into this series Hanwha had only scored fewer than 14 kills in three wins this season and it happened twice this series. Rough beat.

Game one wasn’t the cleanest but Hanwha had huge draft advantage so all they needed to do was keep things neutral and game two was a much more clinical dispatching of an inferior team. I still have some questions about how this team is going to fare in playoffs against the top three teams who won’t let them get away with this run-and-gun, skirmish heavy style as easily as most of the bottom half teams but Hanwha are good and most importantly they have this guy named Chovy so…

LGD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (Net: +1.625 units)

Invictus played with their food here and nearly threw the first game in this series in doing so but game two was a classic TheShy on a counterpick situation. I’m not sure if there is a player in history that punishes counter matchups like this harder than he does. Enjoy it when you get to see it.

LNG vs Rogue Warriors (Net: +6.1 units)

The big winner for the bankroll today was LNG just completely chalking it up against one of the worst professional teams I’ve ever seen in the major four leagues. This Rogue Warriors team might actually be worse than Spring 2020 Victory Five. Don’t have the time to do a deep dive on that right now but it’s certainly possible. Not much else to say. LNG punched their ticket to playoffs with BLG’s loss yesterday and admittedly they’re coming in on a bit of a nice run. They’re a tier below the rest of the playoff teams to me but who knows, maybe we see the confidence help. I don’t think this team is going to do anything but we’ve seen stranger things.

LPL Net Total: +7.725 units

LCK Net Total: +0.03075 units

 

Daily Net Total: +8.0325 units

 

Current Week (March 22nd-28th):  +3.3425 units (+3.9% ROI)

 

Last Week (March 15th-21st):  -16.94 units (-11.17% ROI)

 


LOL Pro League (China)

Week 10 – Day 5

 

 

eStar Pro +910 (+1.5 maps @ +252, -1.5 @ +2200)

vs

Suning Gaming -2500 (-1.5 maps @ -345)

 

 

Map ML Price: EST +535 / SN -909

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +284 / under -400)

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -120 / under -108)

Kill Spread: +10.5 @ -108 / -10.5 @ -120

Team Kill Totals: 7.5 / 17.5

Time Total: 30:00 (over +119 / under -154)

 (Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

Suning Tale of the Tape eStar
-13.2 Gold Diff @ 10 min -173.2
30.5 Gold Diff @ 15 min -922.4
-315.6 Gold Diff @ 20 min -1763.8
-40.0 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -36.6
35.5 Gold Diff / min first 20 -98.5
551.6 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 144.1
1830.7 Gold /min (GPM) 1693.2
26.3 Gold / min vs Avg -111.2
107.3 Gold Diff / min -230.4
1.5 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -3.1
1630.1 Kill Agnostic GPM 1539.8
40.6 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -157.2
1931.2 GPM in wins 1946.6
310.8 Gold Diff per min in wins 351.7
1671.4 GPM in losses 1627.5
-214.9 Gold Diff per min in losses -381.3
105.3 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -232.3
-33.7 Win-Adjusted GPM -18.4
-16.3 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 24.6
52.1 Dragon Control % 43.2
60.3 Herald Control % 40.3
53.7 Baron Control % 15.9
9.0 Quality Wins? 4.0
47.4 % of wins as Quality 57.1

 

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

eStar +1.5 maps @ +252 (VERY strong)

OVER 2.5 maps @ +284 (strong)

eStar map moneyline @ +535 (strong)

eStar series moneyline @ +910 (moderate)

 

Both of these teams have strange statistical profiles to some degree. Suning actually have slightly negative win-adjusted economy metrics stemming from below average per win economy. It makes some sense given the low risk approach to the game Suning have adapted this season. Suning legitimately look like a more disciplined, higher quality team than I thought they looked going into the World Championships last year. Last season Suning had a knack for getting into these weird, ridiculous games regardless of the strength of the opponent but after a rough split up until the Lunar New Year, Suning completely flipped a switch and have turned into an extremely disciplined team that I think might be a bit of a sleeper to take the LPL by surprise in playoffs.

eStar are also a bit of an oddball when you look at their metrics. In most categories they’re legitimately one of the worst teams in the league, in others they don’t look quite so bad. eStar have a positive win-adjusted gold differential per win which is honestly impressive, they do tend to stomp when they actually win which makes sense. However, what I like to call the “fundamental metrics” like kill-agnostic economy are utterly abysmal. They’re second worst only to Rogue Warriors in both kill-agnostic gold per minute and gold differential per minute, and are alone in a tier along with Rogue Warriors in opponent kill-agnostic gold per minute (or KAGPM allowed) which essentially means eStar do absolutely nothing to stop you from doing what you want to do on the map.

Suning in their current form are simply too clean to lose a series to this team unless they completely mail this series in. eStar are very VERY bad. Even if ShiauC gets the party started early they’ve mostly just flamed out within minutes of getting any kind of advantage. The only other angle in this series is if you wanted to look at this with the “meaningless game” narrative in mind. The best Suning can do for seeding would be if FPX lost 0-2 to BiliBili (next match tomorrow) and RareAtom lost to EDG later this week then they could advance to the #6 seed which would give them a bye directly to round two where they’d likely face the winner of #7 vs #10. The “more realistic” option is RareAtom lose to EDG but FPX defeat BLG and Suning end up with the 7th seed. I honestly think the 7th seed is important in this playoff because, to me at least, LNG are significantly worse than the other nine playoff teams. Whether the LPL teams view it this way isn’t a game I’m going to try to guess at but I’d think Suning want to win this match is what this boils down to so I don’t think you’ll see any sort of foot off the gas situation.

I’m going to explore other markets to try to take advantage of these numbers but a straight up side I’ll be passing as the price on Suning is prohibitively expensive.

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 24.975

Time-Implied: 24.87

Underdog Win: 28.701

“Gelati” Total Projection: 24.959 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 47.01% (SN 32.26% / EST 61.76%)

Volatility Rating:  SN 0.38203 / EST 0.24544 (League Avg: 0.3046)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

UNDER 24.5 @ -108 (very light)

—-

Team Totals:

SN team total UNDER 17.5 @ -116 (VERY strong)

eStar team total OVER 7.5 @ +102 (VERY strong)

 

Suning League Average eStar
Combined Kills / game 23.472 26.45 25.649
Combined Kills / min 0.750 0.88 0.843
Kills per win 16.253 18.24 18.107
Kills per loss 10.594 9.13 8.071
Deaths per win 6.11 8.20 5.14
Deaths per loss 16.50 18.00 17.67
Average Margin of Victory (AMOV) 10.53 9.57 13.00
Average Margin of Defeat (AMOD) 6.67 9.61 8.96

 

The perplexing part of this kill handicap is that Suning are not usually a high scoring winner but they also allow one of the lowest deaths per win numbers in the LPL at 6.11. My gut tells me to just take the double digit kill spread with eStar considering how low scoring Suning tend to be and that also covers you in case eStar are particularly chippy tomorrow and manage to make these games competitive. eStar have one of the best average margins of defeat amongst the non-playoff teams but I think Suning are just going to destroy them here and they’ve been giving up VERY few deaths when they win. This is a rare case where I’m going to say no to the double digit kill spread even though I like the game total under as well.

Suning’s deaths in their most recent wins: 3, 1, 9, 3, 24 (RW), 0, 8, 3, 0

I actually like the kill total under here more than the model does. Suning have only gone over that total in 3 of their past 14 games. and are under in 13 out of 21 games as favorites this season (avg total: 24.8 kills).

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 31.227 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 30.56 / 30.89

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 52.7% (SN 61.29% / EST 44.12%)

Volatility Rating: SN 0.17216 / EST 0.17706 (League Avg: 0.16106)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OVER 30:00 @ +118 (moderate-strong)

 

Suning eStar
Average Game Time 32.26 30.20
Avg Game Time (in wins) 30.16 30.70
Avg Game Time (in losses) 35.569 30.067

 

Suning have been in no rush to win generally this season but eStar lose at such a blistering fast pace that I wouldn’t mess with it here. Suning have also been rolling in the second half with much faster wins than their overall season average. I’d lean to the under but the price isn’t great. Pass.

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

eStar first blood @ +127 (VERY strong)**

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -385 (moderate-strong)

** denotes advantage in a category that the opponent is also strong in, must be considered

I’ve been loving eStar first blood all season. It’s basically the only thing they do well. Suning have excelled here as well but at +127 for a team that picks up first blood in over 67% of their games it’s hard to say no to that.

 

My Picks:

 

Kill Total: Map 1 UNDER 24.5 @ -108 (1.08 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 UNDER 24.5 @ -102 (1.02 units)

Kill Total: Map 3 UNDER 24.5 @ -101 (1.01 units)

Prop: Map 1 eStar first blood @ +127 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 eStar first blood @ +128 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 3 eStar first blood @ +128 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -385 (1.925 units)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -370 (1.85 units)

Prop: Map 3 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -323 (1.615 units)

 


BiliBili Gaming +285 (+1.5 maps @ -115, -1.5 @ +776)

vs

FunPlus Phoenix -400 (-1.5 maps @ -110, +1.5 @ -1667)

 

 

Map ML Price: BLG +232 / FPX -312

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +129 / under -167)

Kill Total: 27.5 (over -109 / under -119)

Kill Spread: +8.5 @ -122 / -8.5 @ -106

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 17.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over +112 / under -145)

 

 

 (Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

FunPlus Tale of the Tape BiliBili
665.0 Gold Diff @ 10 min -491.4
796.8 Gold Diff @ 15 min -1732.1
97.9 Gold Diff @ 20 min -2293.0
109.0 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -14.9
110.9 Gold Diff / min first 20 -51.0
743.1 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 340.2
1952.4 Gold /min (GPM) 1783.2
148.0 Gold / min vs Avg -21.2
188.2 Gold Diff / min -42.0
2.5 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -0.6
1699.7 Kill Agnostic GPM 1616.0
129.7 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -13.8
2078.9 GPM in wins 1967.4
406.5 Gold Diff per min in wins 332.3
1699.6 GPM in losses 1635.8
-248.3 Gold Diff per min in losses -341.4
186.2 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -44.0
113.9 Win-Adjusted GPM 2.4
79.4 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 5.2
49.3 Dragon Control % 47.6
57.6 Herald Control % 34.2
66.7 Baron Control % 49.0
12.0 Quality Wins? 6.0
54.5 % of wins as Quality 37.5

 

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

FPX series moneyline @ -400 (moderate-light)

FPX -1.5 maps @ -110 (light)

 

Tian makes his return for FPX after declaring a leave of absence earlier this season for stress-related health problems. I said it at the time and I’ll reiterate it here, I hope he’s doing well and it’s a great sign that he’s confident enough to step back in right when the pressure is heating up for FPX. Never underestimate time off being good for someone’s mojo so to speak but most importantly it’s just great to see him back. For FPX, at the very least this gives them a chance to get his feet wet again and see what options they have for playoffs if it did come down to a substitution or time share situation.

Now strictly from an X’s and O’s perspective a lot of people were dumping on Tian this season AFTER Bo and Beichuan came in and performed well in replacement but I thought before his leave Tian was actually playing a lot better than he did last year and seemed like he had finally grasped a lot of the “new school” jungle champions that were being played after a year of struggling to do so in 2020. Quite frankly I don’t think it really matters who jungles on this team as long as Doinb is in good form and he has been without question. My individual player model incorporates a lot of different factors but I have a more “traditional” player model basically measuring the differentials and carry efficiency (damage per gold per minute). He’s killing it in that model too (also #6) so this whole “Doinb is a supportive style mid laner” narrative, while true, doesn’t mean he’s not just good enough to do literally everything. The dude is a beast, one of the best players on the planet, don’t forget that…. I digress.

BiliBili are eliminated from playoff contention and went out with a whimper in what was one of the most pathetic displays of lack of fundamental understanding I’ve seen from a team with their talent level and experience. I’m not sure if all of these players just aren’t communicating or if Kim isn’t all we think he is but this team has systemic issues that are going to need fixing for Summer. Now, with that in mind, you typically see bounce back performances after embarrassing losses like that. Do I think we get that in this case? I don’t think so because this isn’t the first of a few games they’ll have to play while eliminated. It’s just this one match. This team looks done to me. It’s sad too because their metrics suggest that they’re better but their macro is just horrid and Jwei looks a little overwhelmed which is understandable for a mid-split substitution rookie that’s 17 years old.

I think FPX are going to roll here. Not only did BLG looked emotionally checked out in their last series but FPX are playing for a first round bye and with a win here they would secure that (and possibly move up to #5 potentially). I could maybe see fading them in this spot with the line of thinking that this is Tian’s first match back after an extended break and there could be some rust to shake off but I actually think FPX are coming into playoffs slightly underrated. Why aren’t they being priced like the other favorites have been this week or at least closer to that end of the spectrum? Obviously BiliBili are considered to be better than the true bottom dwelling teams and I get that but there’s a very strong chance they turn in that level of performance here. I think FPX should be at least slightly bigger favorites here and I agree with the model that we’re getting them at a bit of a discount even considering the Tian news. I’d bet on a refreshed Tian more than a rusty Tian which is an added boost for me personally.

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 27.412

Time-Implied: 29.59

Underdog Win: 31.673

“Gelati” Total Projection: 28.32 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 45.33% (FPX 54.54% / BLG 36.11%)

Volatility Rating:  FPX 0.28794 / BLG 0.29277 (League Avg: 0.3046)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

UNDER 27.5 @ -119 (miniscule)

—-

Team Totals:

BLG team total OVER 9.5 @ -122 (moderate)

FunPlus League Average BiliBili
Combined Kills / game 31.907 26.45 24.281
Combined Kills / min 1.132 0.88 0.813
Kills per win 19.429 18.24 17.813
Kills per loss 13.861 9.13 6.288
Deaths per win 9.64 8.20 8.25
Deaths per loss 19.55 18.00 18.60
Average Margin of Victory (AMOV) 9.41 9.57 9.44
Average Margin of Defeat (AMOD) 9.64 9.61 11.30

 

No play on the total here but I’d agree with the model and lean under.

In terms of kill spreads, I actually think FPX laying the 8.5 is a cheap price mostly considering that I think this series price is cheap and your average FPX win covers this total by almost two full kills more on average. FPX have covered this point spread in 12 out of their 22 wins against a variety of opponent quality. I could definitely see a “playoff prep” and a “we’re done” boost to both sides too. Feels like an FPX “remind everyone who we are” blowout to me.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 30.425 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 30.31 / 30.25

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 40.28% (FPX 33.33% / BLG 47.22%)

Volatility Rating: FPX 0.18612 / BLG 0.16696 (League Avg: 0.16106)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

UNDER 31:00 @ -145 (miniscule)

 

FPX BLG
Average Game Time 29.22 31.63
Avg Game Time (in wins) 27.34 31.48
Avg Game Time (in losses) 32.994 31.741

 

This feels like an FPX steamroll to me but I’m going to pass as I’ll be attacking that angle through different means anyway and this price isn’t great.

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OVER 1.5 barons @ +227 (moderate)

BLG first tower @ +126 (light)**

BLG first blood @ +124 (light)**

** denotes advantage in a category that the opponent is also strong in, must be considered

 

Fading the BLG firsts again for the checked out narrative which I usually don’t do but this team really does just look cooked. Over 1.5 barons I’m passing on because I’m leaning under.

 

 

My Picks:

 

Kill Spread: Map 1 FPX -8.5 kills @ -109 (1.09 units)

Kill Spread: Map 2 FPX -8.5 kills @ -111 (1.11 units)

Kill Spread: Map 3 FPX -7.5 kills @ -106 (1.06 units)

 


LOL Champions Korea (LCK)

Week 10 – Day 2

 

 

 

DRX +257 (+1.5 maps @ -123, -1.5 @ +671)

vs

Gen.G -357 (-1.5 maps @ -103, +1.5 @ -1429)

 

 

Map ML Price: DRX +207 / GEG -278

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +130 / under -167)

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -103 / under -125)

Kill Spread: +6.5 @ -111 / -6.5 @ -116

Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 14.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -108 / under -120)

 (Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

GEG Tale of the Tape DRX
461.4 Gold Diff @ 10 min -535.7
396.2 Gold Diff @ 15 min -1571.6
-381.4 Gold Diff @ 20 min -1642.3
35.3 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -63.6
55.3 Gold Diff / min first 20 -54.5
356.5 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -92.5
1860.3 Gold /min (GPM) 1762.5
76.9 Gold / min vs Avg -20.8
147.0 Gold Diff / min -36.5
2.0 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -0.5
1686.0 Kill Agnostic GPM 1619.9
108.0 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -5.7
1963.3 GPM in wins 1906.4
356.0 Gold Diff per min in wins 249.7
1674.8 GPM in losses 1631.7
-229.4 Gold Diff per min in losses -296.8
151.7 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -31.8
36.7 Win-Adjusted GPM -20.3
70.6 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -35.7
52.7 Dragon Control % 41.2
67.1 Herald Control % 31.7
72.0 Baron Control % 50.8
16.0 Quality Wins? 2.0
59.3 % of wins as Quality 10.0

 

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

Gen.G -1.5 maps @ -103 (VERY strong)

Gen.G series moneyline @ -357 (VERY strong)

Gen.G map moneyline (strong)

UNDER 2.5 maps @ -167 (moderate)

 

If Hanwha had managed to lose this morning then Gen.G would have had no incentive to show anything in this series but they now have to pick up the win to secure the #2 seed and a coveted first round bye. At a glance, DRX have had a few competitive games during five game losing streak including against T1 and DWG but those games weren’t as close as the box score suggests and in the T1 match in particular were more on the opponent botching a close than anything (the DWG was a scaling question so DWG didn’t have to smash early). I mean, don’t look now but DRX dropped a series to Nongshim two weeks ago and we know what that team looks like as well. Could it be that they’re finally regressing to what we expected during their miracle early season run? I’m not sayin’ I’m just sayin….

In all seriousness though I don’t think this is quite that dire. DRX have had playoffs clinched and have had a tough past two matches. I do think this team is actually pretty good relative to the bottom of the table but they’re not even remotely close to the top three teams, probably top four teams and at this point I’d make a case for Sandbox being a better team than they are as well. This number is only priced like this because of their record and this was a close series the previous match between these two teams but for those that don’t remember, Karis played in that series for Gen.G not Bdd and he was… not great. DRX are not even remotely close to Gen.G in quality just look at the Tale of the Tape above yourself.

I’m all over Gen.G here. They should easily be twice this number. The model makes them -1465 favorites with a 90%+ series win rate here. I’ll be taking them every which way I can in this contest.

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 65.620%
2 1 24.928%
1 2 5.845%
0 2 3.608%
(Series Win): 90.547%

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 21.913

Time-Implied: 22.703

Underdog Win: 20.938

“Gelati” Total Projection: 22.317 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 42.86% (GEG 38.1% / DRX 47.62%)

Volatility Rating:  GEG 0.30889 / DRX 0.34749 (League Avg: 0.3104)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

UNDER 23.5 @ -125 (light)

(alt) UNDER 24.5 @ -164 (very light)

—-

Team Totals:

Gen.G League Average DRX
Combined Kills / game 19.186 24.67 25.155
Combined Kills / min 0.605 0.76 0.776
Kills per win 14.587 16.86 15.638
Kills per loss 5.300 8.59 7.759
Deaths per win 6.93 7.81 7.20
Deaths per loss 15.40 17.91
Average Margin of Victory (AMOV) 9.19 9.04 7.70
Average Margin of Defeat (AMOD) 9.80 9.03 10.45

 

The kill spreads are a GREAT way to play Gen.G in this match. They’ve covered this spread in 19 out of 27 wins.

 

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time:  32.866 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 32.69 / 32.56

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 47.62% (GEG 42.86% / DRX 52.38%)

Volatility Rating: GEG 0.14815 / DRX 0.16694 (League Avg: 0.15498)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none

 

GenG DRX
Average Game Time 32.18 33.56
Avg Game Time (in wins) 32.04 34.57
Avg Game Time (in losses) 32.419 32.631

 

No plays here but I’d actually lean to the under.

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

Gen.G first blood @ -143 (strong)

OVER 12.5 towers @ +183 (moderate)

OVER 11.5 towers @ -116 (moderate-light)

Gen.G first dragon @ -161 (light)

** denotes advantage in a category that the opponent is also strong in, must be considered

 

I like both first blood and dragon for Gen.G but blood is the better value despite the volatility of the prop. I wouldn’t normally hate the over towers play in the LCK but I really do think there’s a good chance Gen.G just completely steamroll this match.

 

My Picks:

 

Moneyline: Gen.G -357 (3.57 units)

Map Spread: Gen.G -1.5 maps @ -105 (1.05 units)

Kill Spread: Map 1 Gen.G -6.5 kills @ -116 (1.16 units)

Kill Spread: Map 2 Gen.G -6.5 kills @ -119 (1.19 units)

Kill Spread: Map 3 Gen.G -6.5 kills @ -112 (1.12 units)

Prop: Map 1 Gen.G first blood @ -143 (1.43 units)

Prop: Map 2 Gen.G first blood @ -143 (1.43 units)

Prop: Map 3 Gen.G first blood @ -143 (1.43 units)

 


Afreeca Freecs +150 (+1.5 maps @ -192, -1.5 @ +391)

vs

Liiv Sandbox -192 (-1.5 maps @ +147, +1.5 @ -588)

 

 

Map ML Price: AF +125 / LSB -161

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +114 / under -145)

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -114 / under -114)

Kill Spread: +6.5 @ -122 / -6.5 @ -106

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 13.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -114 / under -114)

 

 (Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

LSB Tale of the Tape AF
353.3 Gold Diff @ 10 min -53.1
1362.1 Gold Diff @ 15 min 18.9
2317.3 Gold Diff @ 20 min -204.1
31.2 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -7.6
44.4 Gold Diff / min first 20 -7.4
-154.4 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -258.8
1772.8 Gold /min (GPM) 1728.0
-10.6 Gold / min vs Avg -55.4
-51.2 Gold Diff / min -94.1
-0.7 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -1.3
1602.5 Kill Agnostic GPM 1573.9
-44.2 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -61.8
1976.5 GPM in wins 1904.3
339.2 Gold Diff per min in wins 264.9
1652.4 GPM in losses 1633.0
-281.9 Gold Diff per min in losses -287.3
-46.5 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -89.3
49.8 Win-Adjusted GPM -22.4
53.7 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -20.5
45.6 Dragon Control % 51.0
53.0 Herald Control % 63.2
33.3 Baron Control % 39.3
12.0 Quality Wins? 6.0
50.0 % of wins as Quality 42.9

 

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OVER 2.5 maps @ +114 (very light)

 

This is simply a tale of two very similar teams in some ways but that are trending in complete opposite directions. Both of these teams are analytics darlings and criminally underrated by the market (although who’s laughing now about Afreeca I suppose…). They were both the NFL’s Chargers at different points in the season, finding miraculous ways to lose un-loseable games. However, Sandbox over the last three weeks have finally been playing to their potential and are now set up to actually make the worst-to-playoffs Cinderella run. With a win 2-0 here, Sandbox would temporarily move into #6, a 2-1 would create a tie as they head into a match against DRX on the final day of the season on Sunday. Afreeca were eliminated last week and sure as hell looked like it in their last match. This team is an absolute trainwreck that doesn’t look like they’re communicating and are perhaps the most immature group of veteran players I’ve ever seen in terms of their sense of “the big picture” in a game of League of Legends. It’s inexcusable.

TL:DR – Sandbox are feeling it and finally delivering on their potential. Afreeca are the exact opposite.

I think Sandbox build on their momentum and pick up a win here. At this point I actually think they’re the 5th best team in the LCK. Obviously I want them to make playoffs but that shouldn’t shade my handicap here. I simply think they’re just a better team at the moment.

That said, this is a volatile matchup. Both of these teams have been exceptional relative to their win totals in the early game but both have struggled in cleanly closing games out. Sandbox appear to have fixed that issue over the past few weeks, Afreeca did not, but it’s worth considering that these could be swift, decisive wins either way with these two.

This was a situation where you needed to be early to the market. They’re common but not usually this extreme in esports where the market tends to be slightly slower. This line opened Sandbox -139 which was a significantly better price. Even last night (Wednesday) when we recorded The Gold Card Podcast it was -159. I showed an edge on Sandbox at both of those but this is a -EV play on both sides at this point according to my model. According to the eye test? This is a Sandbox bet for sure.

I got this at the -139 opener (full disclosure) but I will not be using that number for my record keeping which only tracks my picks here. At this current number I’d pass on a side in this match.

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 28.366

Time-Implied: 26.942

Underdog Win: 25.353

“Gelati” Total Projection: 27.287 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 50.54% (LSB 48.57% / AF 52.5%)

Volatility Rating:  LSB 0.26865 / AF 0.29174 (League Avg: 0.3104)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none

—-

Team Totals:

Sandbox team total UNDER 13.5 @ -106 (moderate)

 

Sandbox League Average Afreeca
Combined Kills / game 26.129 24.67 26.975
Combined Kills / min 0.817 0.76 0.804
Kills per win 17.776 16.86 16.808
Kills per loss 8.545 8.59 12.760
Deaths per win 7.00 7.81 8.57
Deaths per loss 17.05 16.96
Average Margin of Victory (AMOV) 10.62 9.04 8.14
Average Margin of Defeat (AMOD) 7.95 9.03 8.19

 

Sandbox kill spreads are in play even with the moneyline price shift out of my range. Still they would have been better at that earlier price (I got -5.5 laying -111). Still, 6.5 is below one of the “key” numbers (for those familiar with American football) in the LCK of 7 which is the second highest margin of victory by frequency if you want to think of it that way. I’ll be passing just because I do think it makes a difference in this given the possibility for a lower scoring match or a comeback situation.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 33.234 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 32.83 / 32.83

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 51.61% (LSB 45.71% / AF 57.5%)

Volatility Rating: LSB 0.16190 / AF 0.14729 (League Avg: 0.15498)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none

 

Sandbox Afreeca
Average Game Time 32.71 33.76
Avg Game Time (in wins) 30.12 34.20
Avg Game Time (in losses) 34.239 33.520

 

No plays here although I’d lean to the under given how well Sandbox have been snowballing leads lately and how toothless Afreeca are without a lead.

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

LSB first herald @ +102 (strong)**

AF first herald @ -139 (strong)**

AF first blood @ -139 (strong)

OVER 4.5 dragons @ -110 (moderate)

AF first tower @ -102 (light)

OVER 1.5 barons @ +135 (light)

OVER 12.5 towers @ +172 (miniscule)

** denotes advantage in a category that the opponent is also strong in, must be considered

 

Afreeca first blood is almost always a nice wager but I do think there’s a reasonable chance we get a very lackluster, low energy performance from Afreeca here. With that in mind, I don’t hate LSB first herald for similar reasons but none of these prices are particularly enticing to me.

 

My Picks:

 

none (if you can find Sandbox moneyline at better than -180 it’s a play)

 


LOL European Championship (LEC)

Spring Playoffs – Round 1 – Day 1

 

Team Power # Rank
ROG 1.287302513 1
G2 1.118067217 2
MAD 0.8610223806 3
MSF 0.3083130834 4
FNC 0.005247913367 5
S04 -0.1662568672 6
SK -0.5635316865 7
XL -0.8121388067 8
VIT -0.8580583645 9
AST -1.130573064 10

(Post-Spring Regular Season LEC Power Ratings)

 

 

Fnatic -500 (-1.5 maps @ -208, -2.5 @ +175, +1.5 @ -1667)

vs

SK Gaming +373 (+1.5 maps @ +162, +2.5 @ -227, -1.5 @ +739)

 

 

Map ML Price: FNC -270 / SK +205

Total Maps Played: 3.5 maps (over -192 / under +150), 4.5 maps (over +255 / under -357)

Kill Total: 28.5 (over -109 / under -119)

Kill Spread: -7.5 @ -109 / +7.5 @ -119

Team Kill Totals: 17.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over +133 / under -175)

 

 (Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

FNC Tale of the Tape SK
-401.3 Gold Diff @ 10 min -511.5
120.0 Gold Diff @ 15 min -1110.4
-160.8 Gold Diff @ 20 min -1208.4
64.7 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -35.8
21.2 Gold Diff / min first 20 -59.4
-118.4 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -63.4
1818.4 Gold /min (GPM) 1767.3
40.9 Gold / min vs Avg -10.3
-10.7 Gold Diff / min -49.2
-0.1 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -0.7
1591.1 Kill Agnostic GPM 1604.5
7.5 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -43.0
2000.0 GPM in wins 1918.7
333.5 Gold Diff per min in wins 292.7
1614.2 GPM in losses 1646.2
-398.0 Gold Diff per min in losses -322.7
Adjusted Gold Diff / min
77.7 Win-Adjusted GPM -3.6
31.3 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -9.5
62.1 Dragon Control % 36.4
45.2 Herald Control % 52.9
59.1 Baron Control % 43.5
6.0 Quality Wins? 8.0
66.7 % of wins as Quality 57.1

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

SK +1.5 maps @ +162 (VERY strong)

SK series moneyline @ +373 (strong)

SK map moneyline @ +205 (moderate-strong)

SK +2.5 maps @ -227 (moderate)

OVER 4.5 maps @ -+255 (moderate)

OVER 3.5 maps @ -192 (moderate-light)

SK -1.5 maps @ +739 (light)

 

Quantitative Analysis:

These two teams look very different on film but VERY similar when you look at the numbers. They’re both terrible early game teams (6th and 9th in my model), both are below league averages in kill-agnostic economy, and roughly average in win-adjusted economy. Fnatic have a big advantage in dragon and baron control and that’s the only really significant edge besides “in wins” where Fnatic are significantly better and “in losses” where SK are significantly better.

The model absolutely doesn’t understand how Fnatic could possibly be laying this kind of number here and I happen to agree. They’re severely overpriced. I made adjustments for all sorts of factors and still couldn’t get this to a reasonable number to back Fnatic so they’re certainly not an option in the match markets. Fnatic are obviously very talented but the fact of the matter is that based on what we’ve seen so far this season which is all we can truly quantify, they’re just not as good a team as the market seems to think.

This is SK or nothing at this price. I’m showing a ~9% edge on market price via the model and make this series ~69.65% / 30.35% vs the implied (no vig) price of 80/20 or 83.3/21.14 (with vig). This should be priced something like -256 / +207. Massive value on SK. Even if you adjust Fnatic up and SK down for factors I’ll discuss below it’s tough to just create 9% out of nowhere like that. If you like Fnatic just pass otherwise back SK.

Series Outcomes
wins Losses Probability
3 1 26.439%
3 0 22.489%
3 2 20.722%
2 3 13.353%
1 3 10.979%
0 3 6.018%
(Series Win): 69.649%

(Fnatic win% outcomes)

 

Qualitative Analysis:

So the catch with the LEC playoffs, unlike the other leagues that we’ve got either already in them or starting shortly (next week), is that these teams have had a week off to game plan. While it isn’t this tremendous amount of time to fundamentally change a lot of things, it does allow enough of a period for teams to prepare very specific strategies more than they would during the regular season. Typically this favors underdogs but it all depends on the teams involved. If one of the teams is extremely linear while the other is more versatile that provides unique challenges to that linear team because over the course of a best-of-five in which the other team is preparing specifically for you it’s very easy to have your weaknesses exploited in most situations. If both teams are very limited in the amount of tools at their disposal then you can get anything.

I think SK are an extremely limited team. Kind of piggy-backing on what I mentioned in the quantitative section, SK have shown us very little proficiency in the early game this season. Not only is that the case statistically but just with any sort of eye test or cursory film review you can see that they consistently open the game with these massive deficits and that’s even with picking up first blood in half of their games. Fnatic are very much the opposite, at least that’s what they WANT to be, but is it what they have been? Fnatic’s issue is that they want to be this fast and furious brawling style team but they don’t actually accrue gold advantages early and honestly they don’t do a great job of denying resources either (below league average in differentials at 10, 15, and 20 and opponent kill-agnostic gold per minute)

Fnatic are an immensely talented team but they’re not a very good team, at least from what we’ve seen this season. If Fnatic were a boxer they’d be the one that throws big, match-ending haymakers but leave themselves open to counterattack or struggles against a more agile opponent. In other words they’re going for all the glory but they’ll very often lose to their greed and “style” (or lose to themselves) like a boxer that loses to an opponent they should beat while a more technique-focused fighter might be a significantly more reliable and consistent performer.

SK aren’t what I’d call an agile opponent per se but they are very capable of punishing mistakes. My only concern is that these games get really lopsided or Fnatic’s individual talent shows up on the day. We all know what these players are capable of.  They’re a significantly better individual team, or at least they SHOULD be with these players based on their career performance. The numbers this season would beg to differ in regards to Fnatic being a “significantly better individual team.”

Really what all of this boils down to is that I don’t think Fnatic deserve to be this big of a favorite over any playoff caliber team in the LEC. As you can see in my ratings above, Fnatic ARE essentially the league average and that number is propped up largely on baron and dragon control. As bizarre as it is to say, because these two teams LOOK very different, they’re really not.  SK are definitely fraudulent sure, they’ve had a bunch of lucky wins, but Fnatic are sort of the opposite in that they’re all sizzle and no steak (flashy wins, rest of their play lacks substance). Fnatic’s pop off games are memorable but their normal performance level has left a lot to be desired this season and teams that are like that aren’t -500 favorites period.

I even gave Fnatic a “clutch” bump, a live stage bump (since we’re back in studio *fingers crossed*), and an “experience” bump and I still couldn’t adjust them to this number. I’ll be backing SK Gaming. If you’re more bullish on Fnatic than I am then I’d encourage you to just pass on taking a side in this contest or to just take the kill spreads over the map bets which are ridiculously overpriced. Don’t bet Fnatic map spreads or maps or moneyline, stick to kill spreads of other narratives stuff like kill total over because this market is literally begging you to bet on Fnatic. Don’t give in.

 

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 28.586

Time-Implied: 28.733

Underdog Win: 33.719

“Gelati” Total Projection: 28.759 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 49.18% (FNC 70.59% / SK 27.78%)

Volatility Rating:  FNC 0.25839 / SK 0.29009 (League Avg: 0.3045)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

(alt) OVER 29.5 @ +110 (very light)

—-

Team Totals:

Fnatic team total UNDER 17.5 kills @ -104 (VERY strong)

SK team total OVER 9.5 kills @ -122 (miniscule)

 

Fnatic League Average SK Gaming
Combined Kills / game 31.324 27.73 25.375
Combined Kills / min 1.077 0.84 0.797
Kills per win 18.524 17.84 18.563
Kills per loss 15.156 9.46 7.756
Deaths per win 9.33 8.42 6.75
Deaths per loss 24.25 18.42 16.20
Average Margin of Victory (AMOV) 9.78 9.61 11.25
Average Margin of Defeat (AMOD) 13.25 9.83 9.00

If you’re more bullish on Fnatic than I am I could see taking the kill spreads per map for sure and possibly their team total over but just because it’s what we saw in the regular season doesn’t mean it’s how these games will go here in a higher pressure situation.

I’m actually going to be attacking unders in the LEC playoffs. I don’t usually like to bet narratives but I think moving back to the studio is going to tighten these teams up. Games won’t be as fast and loose with more on the line and Fnatic totals are always extremely high. I like both the game total under and the Fnatic team total under in this contest (game total I like more).

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time:  30.659 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 30.41 / 30.56

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 28.43% (FNC 23.53% / SK 33.33%)

Volatility Rating: FNC 0.11153 / SK 0.12361 (League Avg: 0.14865)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

UNDER 32:00 @ -175 (strong)

 

Fnatic SK Gaming
Average Game Time 29.48 31.84
Avg Game Time (in wins) 29.39 33.78
Avg Game Time (in losses) 29.575 30.283

 

These teams both suck in the early game but Fnatic do turn the corner quickly and win in that 20-30 range very often. I think we’ll get slower games here though and I like the over quite a bit especially playing to that studio narrative. Going against the model and taking the over for a half stake. I think this series is going to be more competitive than people think.

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):New

UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -164 (strong)

SK first herald @ +141 (moderate-strong)

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -278 (moderate)

FNC first dragon @ -200 (moderate-light)

SK first blood @ +106 (very light)

** denotes advantage in a category that the opponent is also strong in, must be considered

 

Instead of playing the over neutral props I’ll be on the time total at a better price. I do like the firsts all mentioned here based on price but I’m not entirely sure how these teams are going to attack this series and we could see something very different than we did during the season or more specific to each other so I’m less bullish on them and won’t be betting them.

 

My Picks:

 

Map Spread: SK Gaming +2.5 maps @ -227 (2.27 units)

Map Spread: SK Gaming +1.5 maps @ +162 (0.5 units)

Moneyline: SK Gaming +373 (0.25 units)

Map Spread: SK Gaming -1.5 maps @ +739 (0.1 units)

Map Spread: SK Gaming -2.5 maps @ +1700 (0.1 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 UNDER 27.5 @ +103 (1 unit)

Kill Total: Map 2 UNDER 27.5 @ +102 (1 unit)

Kill Total: Map 3 UNDER 27.5 @ +102 (1 unit)

Kill Total: Map 4 UNDER 27.5 @ +101 (1 unit)

Kill Total: Map 5 UNDER 27.5 @ +102 (1 unit)

Time Total: Map1 OVER 32:00 @ +133 (1 unit)

Time Total: Map 2 OVER 32:00 @ +129 (1 unit)

Time Total: Map 3 OVER 32:00 @ +133 (1 unit)

Time Total: Map 4 OVER 32:00 @ +132 (1 unit)

Time Total: Map 5 OVER 32:00 @ +132 (1 unit)

 

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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