Thursday, March 18th Recap

 

Rogue Warriors vs ThunderTalk (Net: no action)

I wrote quite a bit yesterday about the whole fiasco with the line movement for this series but ultimately TT smashed Rogue Warriors and there really wasn’t much to say except that this might just be the worst team we’ve seen in years besides maybe Spring 2020 Victory Five. Thankfully we only need to watch one more series of this garbage and hopefully they can get it together for Summer split.

Team WE vs BiliBili Gaming (Net: -2.02 units)

Team WE tried a 1-3-1 look in game one to counteract Biubiu’s Camille with a Fiora/Ryze combo. A third wave top dive lead to a teleport and double kill for Zeka. Despite that rough start, Team WE stayed aggressive which is critical in these types of situations but BiliBili had the answers on a few of the dive attempts and ended up stacking four dragons for an infernal soul and the win.

Games two and three were lopsided Team WE stompings.

BiliBili only got this first game because Team WE’s execution wasn’t completely on point. Team WE ran back very similar looks in games two and three and this time executed well and this wasn’t a contest. BiliBili have the unenviable task of likely needing to beat BOTH Suning and FunPlus next week to make playoffs.

Hanwha Life vs KT Rolster (Net: -2.21 units)

These games did not go at all like I’d anticipated but I think a lot of that had to do with KT really botching this first draft badly. They picked a comp that relied way WAY too much on Rakan for hard engage. They had Gragas ult and Syndra stun so it wasn’t like they didn’t have tools but when you’re fighting against Orianna, Senna and Tahm Kench as well as Nidalee you’re going to have a VERY difficult time Gragas ulting anybody relevant. All HLE had to do was sit and wait, and that they did.

Game two we got to see some good things from Gideon but the highlight, if anything, was Noah getting his first action for KT this season with their season on the line down a game. You could interpret this as tilt or desperation but I actually admire the coaching staff for making a move if for no other reason than to ignite the team. KT tried Lee Sin and Gideon had a great start to this game. This is how you have to attack this Hanwha team… but KT just couldn’t hold serve and threw the game back in the 10-20 minute mark.

KT legitimately look tilted as a team. They’ve lost 9 of their past 10 games and are now in grave danger of losing their playoff spot. The players aren’t performing poorly except maybe Ucal but they just don’t play well as a team and their identity is way too predictable and easy to deal with. When you have zero threat of early game snowballing other teams don’t need to respect that so they can just index into early or go all-in late knowing you won’t punish them. Game two’s draft was a breath of fresh air despite the loss but where has this been all season? They’re just never on the same page and even their drafts don’t enable their late game win condition as well as a team like DRX. KT have a lot of work to do and at this point I don’t think they’re going to make playoffs.

Gen.G vs DAMWON (Net: +2.4 units)

It might not have been insanely entertaining but this was a very high level series with a lot of mind games going on which makes sense given that I think we’ll likely see these two teams in the finals unless T1 or maybe Hanwha have anything to say about it. It was also a great illustration of why you CANNOT afford to give either of these teams a lead and why I think teams simply must attack them early and hope to snowball. These teams both close with a lead ridiculously well.

Game one was blown open by this early four man wombo combo coming out of first herald in a mistake by DAMWON to collapse all four down and make Bdd’s job easy hitting a four man Orianna ult. Ruler was able to build up a massive advantage in this bottom lane matchup on the Jinx and with the Udyr + Chogath frontline and Thresh to peel this game was all but over.

Game two’s catalyst was a 2v2 two-for-one benefitting Ghost’s Tristana. Tristan Rell is so ridiculously powerful in that level 2-6 range that even if you play things well it’s just overwhelming and you have to more or less play mistake free or it snowballs. I’m not sure how much Tristana we’re going to be seeing in all of the leagues moving forward on 11.5 it’s just too easy for it to get out of control and I think you might start to see a shift toward banning both it and the Kaisa. Gen.G actually punched back excellently in this game and managed to keep the gold close and pick up a kill lead and a two dragons but DAMWON held the gold lead throughout and had the superior scaling composition with their Viktor+Tristana core carries. They picked up an ace around the 26 minute mark and marched it right down into a win without even needing a baron buff.

I liked Gen.G’s comp more in game three but DAMWON’s was perfectly fine as well. Two core compositions are a bread and butter concept to me and I played different iterations of them for years with my squads. Jinx+Azir is POTENT. Two of the best late game champions in the entire game and again the Chogath+Udyr frontline for it *chef’s kiss*. Ruler was able to build up yet another massive lead in the 1v1 situation against Kaisa, a pattern I believe we’re starting to get used to across the world (along with the “new meta” of 4v4 herald). Getting the carries ahead in these kinds of two core situations is just a death sentence for the opposition and you’re forced into trying to find picks which these comps are not always built to do.

As I mentioned, you can’t make any mistakes against these teams. The team that made the first mistake in these games lost all three. Tales of Gen.G’s downfall just because they dropped a series or two were VASTLY overblown like I talked about yesterday. I think you’re looking at two of the best teams in the world here. It’s not always flashy the way they do things but they’re just so intelligent about the game and have such a strong grasp on what’s important. They’re always ahead of the curve and ridiculously consistent. Having incredible players certainly helps.

 

 

LPL Net Total: -2.02 units

LCK Net Total: +0.19 units

 

Daily Net Total: -3.06 units

 

Current Week (March 15th-21st): -8.66 units (ROI: -21.1%)

 

Rough start to the week but plenty of action this weekend.

 


LOL Pro League (China)

Week 9 – Day 4

 

EDward Gaming -2500 (-1.5 maps @ -357)

vs

eStar Prop +919 (+1.5 maps @ +262, -1.5 @ +1900)

 

 

Map ML Price: EDG -1000 / EST +553

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +290 / under -417)

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -109 / under -119)

Kill Spread: -9.5 @ -114 / +9.5 @ -114

Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 6.5

Time Total: 30:00 (over -102 / under -128)

 

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

EDG Tale of the Tape eStar
128.5 Gold Diff @ 10 min -173.9
-365.1 Gold Diff @ 15 min -854.5
-1134.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min -909.0
17.6 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -24.7
43.3 Gold Diff / min first 20 -88.1
445.6 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 163.8
1857.9 Gold /min 1707.0
52.9 Gold / min vs Avg -98.1
143.3 Gold Diff / min -215.4
2.0 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -2.9
1661.8 Kill Agnostic GPM 1546.0
82.4 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -151.7
61.0 Dragon Control % 44.4
49.2 Herald Control % 41.3
54.8 Baron Control % 16.7
7.0 Quality Wins? 4.0
31.8 % of wins as Quality 57.1

(composite blend of trending and season long)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

eStar +1.5 maps @ +262 (VERY strong)

OVER 2.5 maps @ +290 (strong)

eStar map moneyline @ +553 (strong)

eStar series moneyline @ +919 (moderate)

 

EDG and a lot of the upper seed playoff teams are incentivized to compete because the top four teams get two bye rounds for the playoffs and considering how difficult the bracket is going to be that’s definitely appealing. That’s the motivation here. EDG could move to a +16 game differential with a 2-0 here making them the #1 seed at least temporarily. eStar have nothing to play for except pride.

This is a classic hold your nose and put the ticket in or a “close your eyes special” as the SGP guys like to say. This number is simply too big and it’s too easy for a team like EDG to coast for a game here. Dragon stacking teams can get blown out by an early advantage or snowball. EDG are an excellent team and one of the favorites to win this entire split but eStar aren’t Rogue Warriors. They’re a capable, professional team with a few legitimately good players like ShiauC who can blow a game open on his own.  I’ll be taking a light position on eStar outrights and as I’ll talk about later, likely playing the kill spreads as well.

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 26.209

Time-Implied: 25.277

Underdog Win: 26.451

“Gelati” Total Projection: 25.589 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 54.48% (EDG 43.33% / EST 65.63%)

Volatility Rating: EDG 0.25729 / EST 0.2314 (League Avg: 0.3050)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

(alt) OVER 23.5 @ -123 (moderate-strong)

(alt) OVER 25.5 @ +110 (moderate-light)

OVER 24.5 @ -109 (light)

Team Totals:

eStar team total OVER 6.5 kills @ -110 (VERY VERY strong)

EDG team total under 16.5 @ -114 (moderate)

 

In games against top ten teams (excluding LNG, I don’t think they’re on the same level as the other playoff teams), eStar are averaging 8.1 kills per loss but they’ve gone under 6.5 kills in 6 out of their 14 games in this situation. Every single one of them was a loss by the way. eStar have covered the spread against top ten (non-LNG) teams in 6 out of 14 attempts and their team total in 5 out of 14 attempts. EDG have allowed 6 or fewer deaths in just 10 out of their 22 losses and have an average margin of victory of 8.23 kills. They’ve also won by 9.5 or more in just 10 of their 22 wins.

There’s a few ways to play this series. You can play eStar outright, on the kill spread, or the team total, or some blend of all of these. This is an extremely low kill total but I actually think given the way EDG tend to win games and their often lower kill scores that the kill spread is the best way to play on the lethargy angle here. EDG are going to try to win this game but they’re incentivized to get in and get out. They’re not concerned with smashing a bad team like this. I’ll be taking light positions on eStar outright and on the kill spreads per map.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 31.602 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 31.6 / 31.61

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 61.77% (EDG 76.67% / EST 46.875%)

Volatility Rating: EDG 0.13241 / EST 0.17685 (League Avg: 0.16251)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OVER 30:00 @ -102 (strong)

 

EDG eStar
Average Game Time 32.75 30.45
Avg Game Time (in wins) 32.81 30.70
Avg Game Time (in losses) 32.590 30.386

 

eStar lose quickly and EDG win slowly so this is one of those we’re spots. I’m still going to play the over here. EDG are never in any rush and have gone over this time total in almost 77% of their games this season.

 

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

eStar first blood @ +125 (VERY VERY strong)**

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -303 (moderate-light)

eStar first dragon @ +146 (light)*

OVER 4.5 dragons @ +108 (light)

OVER 1.5 barons @ +200 (light)

 

eStar first blood is where I’ll be here. EDG have been good as a first blood team as well but this is just a nice number for a team with a near 66% rate.

 

 

My Picks:

 

Map Spread: eStar +1.5 maps @ +262 (0.5 units)

Moneyline: eStar +919 (0.25 units)

Map Spread: eStar -1.5 maps @ +1900 (0.1 units)

Kill Spread: Map 1 eStar +9.5 kills @ -114 (1.14 units)

Kill Spread: Map 2 eStar +9.5 kills @ -114 (1.14 units)

Kill Spread: Map 3 eStar +9.5 kills @ -106 (1.06 units)

Time Total: Map 1 OVER 30:00 @ -102 (1.02 units)

Time Total: Map 2 OVER 30:00 @ -103 (1.03 units)

Time Total: Map 3 OVER 30:00 @ -103 (1.03 units)

Prop: Map 1 eStar first blood @ +125 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 eStar first blood @ +123 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 3 eStar first blood @ +123 (1 unit)

 


LNG Esports +606 (+1.5 maps @ +184, -1.5 @ +1100)

vs

JD Gaming -1111 (-1.5 maps @ -244)

 

 

Map ML Price: LNG +318 / JDG -455

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +227 / under -303)

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -116 / -111)

Kill Spread: +7.5 @ -109 / -7.5 @ -119

Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 15.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over +103 / under -133)

 

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

JDG Tale of the Tape LNG
87.5 Gold Diff @ 10 min -8.8
193.7 Gold Diff @ 15 min 284.1
454.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min 210.9
43.4 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 11.7
26.9 Gold Diff / min first 20 0.7
377.2 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 388.3
1847.7 Gold /min 1793.7
42.6 Gold / min vs Avg -11.3
65.5 Gold Diff / min -5.7
0.9 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 0.0
1639.5 Kill Agnostic GPM 1617.1
46.1 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -22.7
53.2 Dragon Control % 49.2
43.4 Herald Control % 43.9
48.6 Baron Control % 33.3
8.0 Quality Wins? 7.0
44.4 % of wins as Quality 50.0

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

LNG +1.5 maps @ +184 (RIDICULOUSLY strong)

LNG series moneyline @ +606 (RIDICULOUSLY strong)

LNG map moneyline @ +318 (RIDICULOUSLY strong)

OVER 2.5 maps @ +227 (VERY strong)

 

So the deal here is similar to the previous series with a few extra caveats.

LNG vs Top Ten Teams:

  • Record: 2-12
  • 4% dragon control
  • 32% herald control
  • Gold Differentials at 10 / 15 / 20 minutes: -576 / -1184/ – 2190
  • Gold Differential per minute: -294.2
  • Gold per minute: 1679
  • Kill Agnostic Gold Per minute / differential per minute: 1552 / -192
  • Kills per game / combined kills per game: 9.43 / 25.86
  • Deaths per game: 16.43
  • Average Margin of Defeat: 10 kills
  • Average Game Time: 32.51 minutes

Compare these numbers to those above. There is a stark contrast. LNG haven’t beaten a “good” team since beating Invictus (well, Invictus beating themselves in those games) in week two….

I think LNG are a tier below the rest of the playoff teams but there’s a few angles here and I’m likely going to be playing them for a few reasons.

First, JDG have locked playoffs but are two wins behind the top two, and a win behind the next four. It’s conceivable that they win out against their easy schedule of OMG and LGD which would put them at 12-4 on the season with a +15 game differential. That’s going to put them in running for a top four seed. JDG have a lot of reasons to both want to go for that but also a lot of reasons to maybe just coast or not show too many things the rest of the season against their very VERY easy schedule.

Second, LNG might not have the horses to hang with the top of the table but they are an intelligent team that’s versatile in what they do. JDG have fixed a lot of their issues but they still tend to tunnel on that first herald and with more teams adjusting to the new meta I mentioned earlier and learning how to properly play it, I could see them not taking the bait at that fight and just managing a dragon stack.

Third, M1kuya has been the better top laner and while he’s nothing particularly special I do think he’s the play here.

Fourth, LNG’s bottom lane could potentially carry this series for them.

Five, the number is just too damn big. You mean to tell me this ballooned 11% since yesterday? I’ll take the value I don’t particularly care how bad LNG have been against good teams this season and how well JDG have been playing recently.  I’m an LNG bear and have been all season long but this is a little disrespectful and I think JDG are actually more easily exposed than a lot of the top of the table teams. They still look a little sketchy if team’s just don’t give them the herald fight for free, LNG are more than willing to gracefully concede something like that.

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 26.415

Time-Implied: 27.67

Underdog Win: 25.783

“Gelati” Total Projection: 26.992 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 52.17% (JDG 62.96% / LNMG 41.38%)

Volatility Rating:  JDG 0.29723 / LNG 0.29557 (League Avg: 0.3050)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

(alt) OVER 23.5 @ -143 (light)

—-

Team Totals:

LNG team total OVER 8.5 kills @ -127 (strong)

 

Even against the good teams LNG are averaging 9.4 kills per game and have gone over this total about half the time. JDG are conceding more than 13 deaths per game on the season (11.8 composite). Instead of playing this market I’m going to be taking LNG outright but this isn’t a bad angle either.

For the full game total this looks like a slam dunk over but it’s one of those situations where one team is going to drag the other team into playing their style and it’s difficult to tell which is which here. I’d actually lean toward this being a slower paced match with the way LNG tend to play but regardless it’s not worth laying this kind of juice for. Definitely lean over but pass.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 31.347 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 31.92 / 31.1

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 37.74% (JDG 44.44% / LNG 31.03%)

Volatility Rating: JDG 0.17997 / LNG 0.14699 (League Avg: 0.16251)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

UNDER 32:00 @ -133 (moderate)

 

JDG LNG
Average Game Time 31.73 30.96
Avg Game Time (in wins) 32.91 29.42
Avg Game Time (in losses) 29.363 32.402

 

As I just mentioned, I think there’s a reasonable chance this ends up more like an LNG game than a JDG game just by the flexible, reactive nature with which LNG tends to play but frequency measures strongly suggest an under here primarily because LNG have smashed a lot of the bad teams rather quickly. That’s not the case here. I’ll just pass, lean over.

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

LNG first tower @ +135 (very strong)

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -278 (strong)

LNG first herald @ -109 (moderate)

LNG first blood @ +125 (moderate-light)

OVER 1.5 barons @ +154 (light)

 

I’d say the LNG first tower looks great here but again, it’s a much different ball game for them in the firsts and overall objective control against better teams so this edge isn’t as strong as it looks.

There’s a pretty sizeable edge on the under 12.5 towers and I think that’s actually the best way to attack this series if you think JDG just smash here but I think we’ll get a competitive effort. This prop can easily hit in competitive games as well. Admittedly my gut is speaking to me a bit here and just saying avoid this, I think this could be chippy.

 

My Picks:

 

Map Spread: LNG +1.5 maps @ +184 (1 unit)

Moneyline: LNG +606 (0.5 units)

Map Spread: LNG -1.5 maps @ +1100 (0.1 unit)

 

 


LOL Champions Korea (LCK)

Week 9 – Day 2

 

Afreeca Freecs -110 (+1.5 maps @ -334, -1.5 @ +238)

vs

Nongshim RedForce -110 (-1.5 maps @ +260, +1.5 @ -303)

 

 

Map ML Price: AF -117 / NS -104

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +103 / under -136)

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -114 / under -116)

Kill Spread: -0.5 @ -105 / +0.5 @ -126

Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 11.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -119 / under -121)

(via Pinnacle)

 

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

AF Tale of the Tape NS
-490.8 Gold Diff @ 10 min -1546.9
-80.5 Gold Diff @ 15 min -607.0
-280.9 Gold Diff @ 20 min -122.8
1697.6 GPM first 20 min 1664.1
-4.9 Gold Diff / min first 20 -78.9
-256.7 Gold Diff / min ROG -211.6
1734.1 Gold /min 1709.3
35.0 Gold / min vs Avg 35.0
-88.8 Gold Diff / min -127.3
-1.2 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -1.7
1581.8 Kill Agnostic GPM 1556.5
-59.4 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -84.6
49.4 Dragon Control % 49.4
65.2 Herald Control % 48.6
38.3 Baron Control % 39.5
6.0 Quality Wins? 1.0
46.2 % of wins as Quality 7.7

 

(composite blend of trending and season long)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

Afreeca series moneyline @ -110 (strong)

Afreeca -1.5 maps @ +238 (moderate)

Afreeca map moneyline @ -117 (moderate)

 

… this Afreeca team ends up in so many incredible betting spots and they almost never win when they’re in those spots. It’s actually infuriating however… they’re the clear side to me in this contest unless you think they’re fully tilted from this season going completely off the rails. Afreeca do so many things right in the first twenty minutes of the game and then it quite literally looks like they get bored or they just stop paying attention and it turns into solo queue. That’s something you’d expect from a bunch of rookies but this is a crew of battle-tested veterans… it’s so bizarre.

KT losing 0-2 is going to give a lot of hope to the rest of the pack battling for that sixth and final playoff spot. That includes Nongshim who have played their best league of the season in the past week or so but I just look at the talent gap and the fact that Nongshim are just so awful in the early game and it’s difficult for me to go against an Afreeca team that’s been so good in the early game this season. Obviously they frequently screw it up but I’ve always said I’d rather a team be on the front foot than the back foot 100 times out of 100.

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 28.639

Time-Implied: 26.565

Underdog Win: 29.677

“Gelati” Total Projection: 26.934 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 52.86% (AF 51.43% / NS 54.29%)

Volatility Rating: AF 0.29552 / NS 0.31859 (League Avg: 0.3083)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

(alt) OVER 24.5 kills @ +108 (light)

—-

Team Totals:

none

 

Given how the games play out for both of these teams in the game script I’m anticipating the over isn’t a bad look but I’m just going to pass. I can’t justify it beyond just a gut feeling and the numbers aren’t great anyway.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 32.745 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 33.09 / 33.26

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 44.286% (AF 54.29% / NS 34.29%)

Volatility Rating: AF 0.15489 / NS 0.15238 (League Avg: 0.15609)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

UNDER 33:00 @ -121 (miniscule)

 

AF NS
Average Game Time 33.67 31.82
Avg Game Time (in wins) 34.17 30.43
Avg Game Time (in losses) 33.380 34.239

 

Meh, lean under but pass.

 

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

AF first blood @ -152 (strong)

AF first herald @ -159 (moderate)

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -168 (moderate)

 

It’s been so weird seeing a Peanut-led team not be first blood kings. Dread has become the new Peanut and in combination with his talented side lines finds a lot of opportunities to make the action happen early and often. I do like the Afreeca first blood here. They’re one of the few teams I’ve been playing this on frequently. Herald is also a good look, less variance, slightly worse price. I’ll take first blood this time around.

The under 12.5 towers is an attractive price but I just don’t trust Afreeca to close properly… it’s so frustrating. I’m going to take that at half stake regardless because the price is right.

 

My Picks:

 

Moneyline: Afreeca -110 (1.1 units)

Map Spread: Afreeca -1.5 maps @ +238 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 1 AF first blood @ -152 (1.52 units)

Prop: Map 2 AF first blood @ -154 (1.54 units)

Prop: Map 3 AF first blood @ -154 (1.54 units)

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -172 (0.86 units)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -164 (0.82 units)

Prop: Map 3 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -167 (0.835 units)

 


T1 -231 (-1.5 maps @ +128, +1.5 @ -674)

vs

DRX +185 (+1.5 maps @ -147, -1.5 @ +478)

 

 

Map ML Price: T1 -175 / DRX +143

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +126 / under -168)

Kill Total: 22.5 (over -110 / under -120)

Kill Spread: -4.5 @ -118 / +4.5 @ -112

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -126 / under -115)

(via Pinnacle)

 

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

T1 Tale of the Tape DRX
632.6 Gold Diff @ 10 min -354.9
1508.8 Gold Diff @ 15 min -223.7
954.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min 221.5
1757.8 GPM first 20 min 1641.6
91.7 Gold Diff / min first 20 -36.6
85.1 Gold Diff / min ROG -20.6
1822.7 Gold /min 1784.1
37.0 Gold / min vs Avg 38.0
74.8 Gold Diff / min 1.6
1.0 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 0.0
1644.8 Kill Agnostic GPM 1637.0
49.8 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 16.4
53.0 Dragon Control % 42.5
52.1 Herald Control % 33.8
50.0 Baron Control % 53.7
15.0 Quality Wins? 3.0
71.4 % of wins as Quality 15.0

 

(composite blend of trending and season long)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

T1 series moneyline @ -231 (moderate)

T1 map moneyline @ -175 (moderate)

T1 -1.5 maps @ +128 (light)

 

So as with any T1 series we get to play the starting lineup game. Unfortunately for DFS’ers this is the second series of the day after lock which is a big ol vomit emoji but I think you could get some great ownership leverage there… I’ll leave that to the experts here.

These numbers are the averages for T1. They’re a significantly better team with Faker in the lineup and are the clear cut number three by a lot over Hanwha if you isolate the team just when Faker is playing.

With that in mind, if this number is showing value even with the averaged AND Clozer versions of T1, if we get the announcement that Faker is starting this suddenly becomes a windmill slam play. DRX have locked a playoff berth but are still battling to hold on to the #4 seed at the moment against T1. They likely cannot get to the #2 seed but it’s still possible.

I expect DRX to show up for this match but as you can see from the tale of the tape above, and what I’ve been saying about DRX all season, they’re quite a bit fraudulent. They’re good at what they do and given the current metagame shifting more in their favor I do think they actually get a slight bump (I factored that into the model for these plays). The way they play the game is great for this metagame but I think they won’t be getting nearly as many draft edges as they were now that most teams are playing in a similar manner. Early in the season draft was their big advantage, that’s diminished now.

T1 get a play here, if Faker starts I’ll add a little more exposure to the -1.5 maps.

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 24.668

Time-Implied: 23.972

Underdog Win: 22.794

“Gelati” Total Projection: 24.32 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 52.02% (T1 54.05% / DRX 50%)

Volatility Rating: T1 0.3109 / DRX 0.36237 (League Avg: 0.3083)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none

—-

Team Totals:

DRX OVER 8.5 kills @ -114 (strong)

T1 UNDER 16.5 kills @ -125 (strong)

 

I usually like playing kill spreads when I see under on the favorites and over on the dogs but given DRX’s record and it makes sense that this frequency based model is suggesting an over team total. I’ll be passing, the kill spread is a negligable 4.5.

If we get an announcement that Clozer starts I obviously like the over more BUT specifically against DRX I’m going to just avoid this play altogether in this series.

 

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 33.322 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 33.19 / 33.12

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 63.975% (T1 62.16% / DRX 65.79%)

Volatility Rating: T1 0.14736 / DRX 0.16262 (League Avg: 0.15609)

T1 DRX
Average Game Time 32.95 33.70
Avg Game Time (in wins) 32.86 34.57
Avg Game Time (in losses) 33.067 32.722

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OVER 32:00 @ -119 (moderate-strong)

 

Given the playstyles of these two teams and the current metagame I could definitely see this being a more grindy series. I like the over.

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

T1 first tower @ -159 (VERY strong)

OVER 11.5 towers @ -123 (moderate)

T1 first blood @ -137 (moderate)

OVER 1.5 barons @ +138 (light)

 

T1 first tower is a great alternative to the map moneylines since DRX prefer to concede and limit losses as they scale up. Tristana has a pretty big impact on first tower at the moment so I’m going to stay away from this one, especially since I’m already backing T1 but if you wanted an alternative to the map moneyline this is a great one.

T1 first blood makes more sense to me in this sepcific instance.

 

 

My Picks:

 

Moneyline: T1 -231 (2.31 units)

Map Spread: T1 -1.5 maps @ +128 (0.5 units) (up to a full unit if Faker/Teddy lineup is announced)

Time Total: Map 1 OVER 32:00 @ -119 (1.19 units)

Time Total: Map 2 OVER 32:00 @ -119 (1.19 units)

Time Total: Map 3 OVER 32:00 @ -119 (1.19 units)

Prop: Map 1 T1 first blood @ -137 (0.685 units)

Prop: Map 2 T1 first blood @ -139 (0.695 units)

Prop: Map 3 T1 first blood @ -133 (0.665 units)

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

 

 

 

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