Thursday, March 11th Recap

 

Afreeca Freecs vs Hanwha Life Esports (Net: -3.05 units)

This game one was way sloppier than the box score indicates. Afreeca went back to their old ways and hard threw this game one almost instantly after taking a massive advantage. The final box score in this match looked like a Hanwha whooping but Afreeca punished a really REALLY stupid overextension by Hanwha’s bottom lane in the first five minutes to pick up first blood for Bang with multiple summoners blown that could have been easily capitalized on by Dread with any patience. Afreeca could have effectively taken the Hanwha bottom lane out of this game entirely. They picked up the first dragon as well. And then the bottom lane started throwing this game away.

Game two was a very all-in draft that didn’t get off to enough of a good start. Afreeca actually clawed back some fights they had no business winning but Chovy was simply too big with no pressure on him whatsoever by the Sett as Viktor.

Bang and Lehends really had a rough series here and it honestly looked like Afreeca’s psyche was completely blown out by this mistake early in game one because they just started hemorrhaging all over the map.  I can’t say I’m surprised, this has been Afreeca’s problem but it was beginning to look like they had fixed a few things and cleaned up their act. That wasn’t the case here. The tilt was real…

Hanwha honestly didn’t even impress me besides Chovy and to some extent Morgan in game two. There were a lot of stupid mistakes on their part that got them into horrible situations. If Afreeca was any cleaner at all they lose this game one no question and they nearly let Afreeca back into the game in game two. They continue to be the Chovy show. He stopped a game changing teleport that could have bailed out Kiin in game two, has something like 50 cs lead in 16 minutes although Sett doesn’t really ever pressure him, and took a rough lane phase in game one into some disgusting flanks and picks in game one on the Aatrox. I literally think Hanwha would be a bottom two team without him on this lineup. Pay your respects.

DAMWON vs Brion (Net: -2.27 units)

This wasn’t the utter stomping that I thought it’d be as Brion put up a fight in game one but game two wasn’t really ever in doubt. DAMWON seem content to just grind people to a pulp like most Kkoma teams and if they don’t have to show anything else then why should they? They’re playing the long game here. At least that’s my opinion.

Props to Brion for putting a up fight in game one here it was actually competitive. This team does a great job at punching when attacked but it seems to me like you need to provoke them before that happens. Well-played for the most part I did not expect that.

 

Team WE vs OMG (Net: +1.7 units)

I’ve got to throw some respect on OMG who showed up to play in this series and had a very real chance of taking it down after a solid game one. I haven’t had the time to go over this series with a fine-toothed comb yet but this was a pretty rough showing for Team WE despite the win. Few red flags, more details in my next writeup on them.

EDward Gaming vs LNG (Net: -4.215 units)

LNG just got whooped in this series. I still think the logic was sound on my wagers but from everything I saw this wasn’t remotely close. Again, the LPL I need to go back over in a VOD review which I unfortunately won’t have time for until later or tomorrow.

 

LPL Net Total: -2.515 units

LCK Net Total: -5.32 units

 

Daily Net Total: -7.835 units

 

Current Week (March 8th-14th): -9.575 units (ROI: -11.26%)

 

Finally cooled off a bit on a frustrating day where favorites didn’t behave the way I thought they would and Afreeca probably should have secured us a map win in game one which would have put a dent in the red but hey, it happens.

 


LOL Pro League (China)

Week 8 – Day 5

 

 

eStar Pro +115 (+1.5 maps @ -270, -1.5 @ +308)

vs

LGD Gaming -147 (-1.5 maps @ +205, +1.5 @ -435)

 

 

Map ML Price: EST +103 / LGD -132

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over -103 / under -123)

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -122 / under -108)

Kill Spread: +2.5 @ -118 / -2.5 @ -111

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 13.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over +117  / under -154)

 

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

eStar series moneyline @ +115 (miniscule)

 

We talked about this one on the podcast last night and the concept of just taking the dog in spots like this but to my surprise the model actually agreed and made this roughly -129 / +101 fair price with vig added.

When you’re dealing with two very bad teams I tend to take a more qualitative approach to things. Is there an edge I see with one over the other? Does one have strictly better players? Is one better right now? The next question I ask is whether or not I even want to be involved with a side at all and if I can make a strong enough case for either. In this series I’m struggling to do that. LGD absolutely do not deserve to be laying this kind of price against anybody but I’m not sure I can make much more of a case than that in favor of eStar and the price isn’t really THAT good. If I absolutely had to pick a side here it would be eStar since I think they’ve shown better ceiling performances and have the best individual player in the series (this season) in ShiauC. I also think they tend to jump out a little better more often than LGD does. That said, it doesn’t move the needle enough for me to be excited about +115. eStar have been atrocious in so many aspects of the game that I’d rather just use capital to attack this from a different angle. I don’t think it’s wrong to just “take the value” on eStar here but I’m going elsewhere for it.

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 24.149

Time-Implied: 25.645

Underdog Win: 23.887

“Gelati” Total Projection: 24.575 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 51.23% (LGD 39.13% / EST 63.33%)

Volatility Rating: LGD 0.32789 / EST 0.22795 (League Avg: 0.3091)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

LGD team total UNDER 13.5 @ -123 (strong)*

EST team total UNDER 12.5 @ -119 (strong)*

 

My model weights frequency fairly heavily and with these two teams losing a bunch you have to take that into consideration. Even adjusting for wins there’s still a decently sized edge here but it’s anyone’s guess who is going to win this series so I’m staying away.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 29.693 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 30.38 / 30.35

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 29.71% (LGD 26.09% / EST 33.33%)

Volatility Rating: LGD 0.16292 / EST 0.17681 (League Avg: 0.16104)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

UNDER 32:00 @ -154 (strong)

 

LGD eStar
Average Game Time 29.34 30.05
Avg Game Time (in wins) 32.50 30.70
Avg Game Time (in losses) 28.225 29.847

 

Similar to the kills the model factors in frequency and with these two being steamrolled often, well, it makes some sense. However, with this one the interesting part is that both of these teams have also won in fairly reasonable times. I don’t hate the under here even with the juice. There tends to be this “bad teams play clown fiestas” cliche which is, for the most part, true but I think there’s a chance we see a few lopsided games here. Neither of these teams play particularly good defense so I could see whoever gets ahead just winning fairly simply. I’ll take the under.

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

LGD first dragon @ -135 (strong)

eStar first blood @ -108 (strong)

UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -159 (very light)

UNDER 1.5 barons @ -286 (miniscule)

 

I’m just going to follow the signs on this one and take LGD first drag and eStar first blood. The first blood prop is always a more volatile one but we’ve got a pretty sizeable delta between these two teams AND the difference is made up for in the price as well. I don’t play a lot of first blood but this is the kind of spot it’s worth doing so. It also makes sense with how ShiauC and company like to play, fast and loose. There have been a lot more cases where we’ve gone under 32 minutes and over 4.5 dragons than vice versa so I prefer to play the time total under if I’m looking at the game script with similar odds.

 

My Picks:

 

Time Total: Map 1 UNDER 32:00 @ -154 (1.54 units)

Time Total: Map 2 UNDER 32:00 @ -159 (1.59 units)

Time Total: Map 3 UNDER 32:00 @ -152 (1.52 units)

Prop: Map 1 eStar first blood @ -108 (1.08 units)

Prop: Map 2 eStar first blood @ -108 (1.08 units)

Prop: Map 3 eStar first blood @ -110 (1.1 units)

Prop: Map 1 LGD first dragon @ -135 (1.35 units)

Prop: Map 2 LGD first dragon @ -137 (1.37 units)

Prop: Map 3 LGD first dragon @ -154 (1.54 units)

 

 


FunPlus Phoenix -3333 (-1.5 maps @ -385)

vs

ThunderTalk (TT) Gaming +1012 (+1.5 maps @ +271, -1.5 @ +2000)

 

 

Map ML Price: FPX -1000 / TT +571

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +303 / under -435)

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -118 / under -111)

Kill Spread: -10.5 @ -111 / +10.5 @ -118

Team Kill Totals: 17.5 / 7.5

Time Total: 30:00 (over +123 / under -161)

 

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

TT +1.5 maps @ +271 (moderate)

OVER 2.5 maps @ +303 (moderate)

TT map monyline @ +571 (moderate-light)

 

TT have had a few good showings recently and likely could have taken a series off of JDG. They also got completely stomped by BLG and Suning. I think FPX is better than all of those teams by a reasonable margin. TT are capable of jumping out on people and actually have a solid early game from an objective-centric perspective even if their economy suffers for it. They’re very good at forcing the issue but FPX are a lot cleaner than the aforementioned teams.

This is a dog or nothing situation and with FPX still battling for playoff seeding I like this a lot less than I normally would. That said, it’s pretty tough to ignore that kind of value this late in the season so I’ll take a half stake position. The map moneyline is significantly better priced than the series moneyline here so if you like TT to win this out right just bet each map instead of what you would have placed on the moneyline. It’s a better value. I’ll be sticking to the +1.5 maps (over 2.5 is actually good in this situation as well).

 

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 26.37

Time-Implied: 28.168

Underdog Win: 28.17

“Gelati” Total Projection: 27.237 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 59.07% (FPX 64.29% / TT 53.85%)

Volatility Rating: FPX 0.29721 / TT 0.35722 (League Avg: 0.3091)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

(alt) OVER 23.5 kills @ -185 (moderate)

(alt) OVER 24.5 kills @ -147 (moderate)

OVER 25.5 kills @ -118 (moderate)

 

I like the over here. There’s a reasonable chance FPX just steamroll but we’ve seen TT jump out to an early objective lead only to throw it often adding an extra fight to each game for the favorites. It’s happened in a majority of their series this season. They’re also not a team that’s afraid to take a fight to you and don’t usually just roll over and die.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 30.822  minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 29.99 / 30.22

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 59.62% (FPX 50% / TT 69.23%)

Volatility Rating: FPX 0.19082 / TT 0.15125 (League Avg: 0.16104)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OVER 30:00 @ +123 (strong)

 

FPX have been speed running the bad as well as the good ones this season with an average game time of 27.36 minutes per win which is sort of insane. 50% of their games have gone over this total but almost all of them have been against good teams. The only bottom half teams to take them over the 30 minute mark were OMG day one game two, eStar game one in week four. LGD were both sub 22 minute wins, RW was 25 and 22… you get the idea. Pass.

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

TT first tower @ +220 (VERY strong)*

TT first dragon @ +141 (VERY strong)

UNDER 1.5 barons @ +138 (VERY strong)

TT first herald @ -102 (strong)

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -323 (moderate)

OVER 4.5 dragons @ +119 (light)

 

+220 on first tower is a hilariously big number for a team that’s been as good at it as TT has this season… but FPX are 57% as well so it’s not quite as good as it looks. FPX have been predominantly a herald snowballing team this season opting for that over dragons which they’re only securing at a 39.3% first dragon rate. I like TT first dragon quite a bit more than the herald or tower despite the odds. I’ll be on the under 12.5 towers as well.

 

My Picks:

 

Map Spread: TT +1.5 maps @ +271 (0.5 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 24.5 @ -141 (1.41 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 24.5 @ -149 (1.49 units) 

Kill Total: Map 3 OVER 24.5 @ -154 (1.54 units)

Prop: Map 1 TT first dragon @ +141 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 TT first dragon @ +141 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 3 TT first dragon @ +141 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -323 (3.23 units)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -303 (3.03 units)

Prop: Map 3 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -270 (2.7 units)

 

 


LOL Champions Korea (LCK)

Week 8 – Day 2

 

 

KT Rolster -156 (-1.5 maps @ +181, +1.5 @ -462)

vs

Liiv Sandbox +128 (+1.5 maps @ -226, -1.5 @ +346)

 

 

Map ML Price: KT -144 / LSB +118

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +105 / under -140)

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -111 / under -119)

Kill Spread: -4.5 @ -108 / +4.5 @ -122

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 10.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -105 / under -126)

(via Pinnacle)

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

Sandbox series moneyline @ +128 (moderate-strong)

Sandbox +1.5 maps @ -225 (moderate)

Sandbox map moneyline @ +118 (moderate)

OVER 2.5 maps @ +105 (light)

 

This is one of my favorite positions of the entire weekend although that title goes to one tomorrow (TOP, sneak preview get in while the gettin is good).

We talked a lot about this on the podcast but this isn’t at all an overreaction to the Sandbox upset over Gen.G. If you’ve been following along here this season you’d know that Sandbox have been a team that I’m consistently beating the drum for. The model loves them even more than I do actually making them small favorites in this contest over KT Rolster. Sandbox have been a team that’s consistently delivered in the first half of games and just made catastrophic mistakes. Individual performances and their underlying metrics stand out as a clear candidate for positive regression. Looking at their performance ratings this should be a team that’s better than league average they’ve just found ways to lose. Make no mistake, the ability and talent is there. The question becomes simply do you bet on regression to the mean or is this forever a team you’ll fail to back because they’ve burned you. I prefer to stick to the grind.

KT haven’t been any sort of model of consistency either. They’ve struggled mightily with the bottom half of the table and I think people forget about that when remembering the few and far between punch up performances. Doran has been an absolute machine this season and the rest of this lineup has left a lot to be desired. In fact, I’d argue that Doran has been the only reason they’ve won a lot of their games. Just 28.6% of KT’s wins grade as quality wins. (Sandbox 56.3%).

The motivation angle is the only real thing KT have going in my opinion. They’re currently the 6th seed for playoffs and with Afreeca losing today it makes their job a lot easier. With two more wins they’d more or less secure the spot barring some unlikely circumstances. Sandbox are already eliminated and just playing spoiler.

I like Sandbox in this spot quite a bit primarily because I think this number is just being way WAY too generous to a KT team that has been mostly unimpressive this entire season. Sandbox have at least shown good things even though they don’t have the record to show for it. I also think that they have more avenues to play through because I think the rest of the map is stronger on their side and Doran is going to have a tough time hard carrying this corpse of a KT team to the finish line against Summit who has also been ridiculous this season (they’re #1 and #2). KT just don’t deserve to be laying this number, give me the dogs.

 

 

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 26.013

Time-Implied: 24.597

Underdog Win: 23.399

“Gelati” Total Projection: 25.103 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 65.89% (KT 59.38% / LSB 72.41%)

Volatility Rating: KT 0.34175 / LSB 0.29196  (League Avg: 0.3154)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

Sandbox team total OVER 10.5 kills @ -105 (VERY strong)

OVER 23.5 kills @ -111 (strong)

(alt) OVER 22.5 kills @ -137 (strong)

(alt) OVER 24.5 kills @ +107 (strong)

 

A big part of why these two teams tend to have blood games is that they play in longer, sloppier games. KT especially have been a part of a lot of absolute slugfests this season. To me this is simply a frequency bet. With almost 66% of the combined games between these two (59 and 72%) going over the total it feels like a no brainer to me given the cheap price. I don’t see either of these teams steamrolling and if they do it’d be Sandbox. Even in that game script we have a coin flip chance of getting there. Big fan of this over.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 34.097 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 34.04 / 33.77

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 48.65% (KT 59.38% / LSB 37.93%)

Volatility Rating: KT 0.18715 / LSB 0.10023  (League Avg: 0.15464)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none

 

Seems about right to me. Pass.

 

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OVER 1.5 barons @ +137 (strong)

OVER 4.5 dragons @ -120 (light)

LSB first tower @ -103 (light)

 

In this instance, the over 1.5 barons or 4.5 dragons is a cheaper way to effectively play the same game script between these two. more than 53% of both of these teams games have gone to at least a second baron and the implied price is roughly 42.2%. It’s a more volatile prop but I think it’s a nice value here.

 

My Picks:

 

Moneyline: Liiv Sandbox +128 (1 unit)

Map Spread: Sandbox -1.5 maps @ +346 (0.25 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 23.5 kills @ -111 (1.11 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 23.5 kills @ -111 (1.11 units)

Kill Total: Map 3 OVER 23.5 kills @ +101 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 1 OVER 1.5 barons @ +137 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 OVER 1.5 barons @ +137 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 3 OVER 1.5 barons @ +137 (1 unit)

 

 


 

Nongshim RedForce +142  (+1.5 maps @ -205, -1.5 @ +371)

vs

DRX -174 (-1.5 maps @ +166, +1.5 @ -500)

 

 

Map ML Price: NS +124 / DRX -151

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +109 / under -144)

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -115 / under -115)

Kill Spread: +4.5 @ -119 / -4.5 @ -111

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 12.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -117 / under -123)

(via Pinnacle)

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OVER 2.5 maps @ +109 (miniscule)

 

The model made this market -181 / +147 tacking the vig back on (~62%/38% true).

DRX are the kind of team that beat Nongshim who make critical errors that lead to the game ending usually very quickly after they happen which contributes to their unders and shorter game times (more on that in a bit).

I think DRX is actually the side here and especially at this discounted price. This opened closer to -200 and has ticked down. I get wanting to fade this team I really do but Nongshim are terrible. I’ll attack this in other markets. If I had to pick a side it’d be DRX moneyline.

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 24.824

Time-Implied: 24.692

Underdog Win: 26.949

“Gelati” Total Projection: 25.048 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 40.39% (DRX 42.86% / NS 37.93%)

Volatility Rating: DRX 0.37008 / NS 0.33651 (League Avg: 0.3154)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

(alt) UNDER 24.5 kills @ -143 (moderate-strong)

UNDER 23.5 kills @ -115 (moderate-strong)

(alt) UNDER 22.5 @ +107 (moderate)

DRX team total UNDER 12.5 kills @ -105 (miniscule)

NS team total UNDER 10.5 kills @ -122 (miniscule)

 

The under does make a ton of sense given the way these two tend to play. For these articles I tend to keep it within one of the given total but I tested this one down further and the best value of these is actually the under 21.5 @ +133 and it still shows positive EV down to 20.5 @ +164 so a ladder might be an option here if that’s available. I’ll probably be doing it but for ease of bookkeeping here I’ll just stick to the under 24.5 which showed the best value within one.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 32.916 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 33.16 / 33.18

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 49.56% (DRX 54.29% / NS 44.83%)

Volatility Rating: DRX 0.16380 / NS 0.15627 (League Avg: 0.15464)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none

 

I’d lean over here but I was hoping to get a better price. Nongshim also tend to lose fairly quickly so while it may be a little out of character for DRX to win quickly, Nongshim lose in big chunks when they do lose which is a bit part of the reason why unders hit so frequently in their games as well.

 

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OVER 1.5 barons @ +140 (miniscule)

 

Kind of wild how little we’ve got going on here. First herald for NS is probably in play given  at anything better than +100 if you can find it.

 

 

My Picks:

 

Kill Total: Map 1 UNDER 24.5 @ -143 (1.43 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 UNDER 24.5 @ -143 (1.43 units)

Kill Total: Map 3 UNDER 24.5 @ -143 (1.43 units)

 

 


LOL European Championship (LEC)

Week 8 – Day 1

 Trends through Week 7


 (lines via Pinnacle today)

Rogue -286 vs SK Gaming +226 

 

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -111 / under -119)

Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -122 / +6.5 @ -108

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 8.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -134 / under -107)

G2 and Rogue are in a tier all their own atop the LEC. The rest of league is a pretty big cut down to me even though you’ll see teams punch up from time to time. SK are better than I expected going into the season but this team is to some extent, depending on who you ask, a little fraudulent. Letting teams get ahead of you in games is not a recipe for success. SK have only lead at the 15 minute mark in six games this season and they lost two of those meaning four of their eight wins were come from behind victories. Every year we see these teams have success early in the season as teams struggle with closing with an advantage but they never end up doing well against the elite competition.

Rogue are going to completely destroy SK Gaming. I want them every which way I can get them in this contest along with the time total under. Rogue have one of the most consistent early games not just in the LEC but the world and they close with great efficiency. As good as Treatz has been, you can’t rely on those sorts of miracle big play engages and unless they get one here I don’t see it happening. Rogue outclass them in every position by a mile.

This is a very heavy position on my part but I don’t even think these two teams are in the same galaxy and I think this is actually a tremendous value on Rogue at this price. (*insert Inverse Confidence Model joke here*)

 

My Picks:

Moneyline: Rogue -286 (2.86 units)

Kill Spread: Rogue -6.5 kills @ -122 (1.22 units)

Time Total: UNDER 33:00 @ -107 (1.605 units)

 


Astralis +144 vs Team Vitality -176

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -122 / under -108)

Kill Spread: +6.5 @ -120 / -6.5 @ -111

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 14.5

Time Total: 34:00 (over +126 / under -169)

 

Astralis are certainly better than they were in the opening weeks of the season but this is still, ultimately, a very weak team and while Vitality’s record may not be very impressive, they’ve looked significantly improved in recent weeks. Vitality are the side for me but it’s a little tough to stomach taking them at this price with some of the macro errors they’re still prone to. If you look at their numbers since Crownshot joined the team (and before actually) they’re a much better team it’s just a matter of eliminating the mistakes.

If this was any cheaper I’d probably go against my instincts and play this but I can’t justify a position at the increased price. You could have had a -150 earlier in the week.

My Picks:

no wagers

 


Fnatic -282 vs Schalke 04  +223

 

Kill Total: 27.5 (over -110 / under -121)

Kill Spread: -8.5 @ -106 / +8.5 @ -125

Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -130 / under -111)

Schalke are in full-on, backs against the wall mode right now needing every win they can get to keep their playoff hopes alive. Fnatic are a super high variance favorite with the way they play. It feels gross to take this Schalke team in their current form but I do think these prices are overcorrections at this point. I’ll take a small position on the dog and the kill spread.

If you like Fnatic in this contest I think the way to play it is the under time total given their snowbally stylings.

 

My Picks:

Kill Spread: Schalke +8.5 kills @ -125 (1.25 units)

Moneyline: Schalke +223 (0.5 units)

 


Misfits +124 vs MAD Lions -151

 

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -110 / under -120)

Kill Spread: +5.5 @ -109 / -5.5 @ -121

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 14.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -116 / under -125)

 

Both of these teams are fairly volatile to me, especially MAD Lions. I normally don’t like backing MAD as moderate to large favorites for that exact reason. This is a significantly cheaper price but with questions about the bottom lane I just can’t bring myself to fire on them here. Misfits have been playing well of late and while I think their linear approach is likely going to be easy for most teams to solve, MAD’s bottom lane seems insistent on gambling early in games and I think these teams are close enough in talent that I want nothing to do with this match. I’d lean MAD but pass.

My Picks:

no wagers

 


Excel Esports +529 vs G2 Esports -761

 

Kill Total: 27.5 (over -119 / under -111)

Kill Spread: +10.5 @ -111 / -10.5 @ -119

Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 18.5

Time Total: 30:00 (over -138 / under -105)

 

A lot of how you handicap this match has to do with the game script you anticipate. Excel have a look of existential dread and frustration as they see yet another promising, playoff-bound season slipping away from them. At least that’s how they look to me. If you think they lash out against this and bring the fight to G2 here with their backs against the wall then I think you can play the Excel kill spread. These are professionals after all. If you think this is more of a roll over and die situation I absolutely LOVE the game total under.  In fact, I think that in most of the G2 winning scenarios the under is going to be the play and that’s where I’ll be in this game. I normally like taking the big kill spread when I’m backing an under but with such a high total and such a lethargic opponent I’m not entirely sure that line of thinking holds up here. I’ll stick to just the kill total.

My Picks:

Kill Total: UNDER 27.5 @ -111 (1.11 units)

 


LOL Championship Series (LCS)

Week 6 – Day 1

 

 

Cloud 9 -667 vs Counter Logic Gaming (CLG) +428

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -122 / under -108)

Kill Spread: -10.5 @ -109 / +10.5 @ -120

Team Kill Totals: 17.5 / 6.5

Time Total: 30:00 (over -192 / under +146)

Cloud 9 are a much better team for sure but we discussed quite a bit on the podcast this week about how they’re probably not quite as good as their record this season. CLG are also going to improve with every passing week and now that the full lineup has a few weeks under them I think we’ll start to see some real progress. Do I think CLG is going to win the LCS? No, but they are a bunch of savvy veterans that are being underrated because of a rough start. I like kill spread, team total over, and the outright all here. I’ll stick to the kill spread and moneyline.

 

My Picks:

Kill Spread: CLG +10.5 kills @ -120 (1.2 units)

Moneyline: CLG +428 (0.5 units)

 


Evil Geniuses +122 vs Team Solo Mid (TSM) -156

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -119 / under -110)

Kill Spread: +3.5 @ -122 / -3.5 @ -108

Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 14.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -130 / under +100)

I was a little hesitant about this one on the podcast this week but with some more time to think about it this is a good TSM bet to me. I do think Evil Geniuses are able to punch up but they’ve been so inconsistent and TSM, surprisingly, has been the opposite. TSM are doing just about everything better than EG my only concern would be that this metagame we’re moving into on 11.4-11.5 is one that I think Jiizuke could thrive in. I could maybe see a case for Ignar making things difficult for Lost as well but the more we see him the more comfortable he looks and I’m not entirely sure that’s as much of a factor as it was a few weeks ago. I make this closer to -190 so this looks like a good value to me even though I don’t trust favorites in the LCS.

The over seems like a decent play here as well given the way EG tend to play but only if you think this ends up being a competitive match or one that goes long. I think there are enough outcomes that end up resulting in a lopsided beating one way or the other that I’m just going to stick to the side.

 

My Picks:

Moneyline: TSM -156 (1.56 units)

 


100 Thieves -233 vs Immortals +179

 

Kill Total: 21.5 (over -106 / under -122)

Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -105 / +6.5 @ -123

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 7.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -137 / under +105)

100 Thieves had their “get right” spot against Golden Guardians to stop what had been a pretty rough couple of weeks that included a mid lane substitution and a handful of losses. This is still a good team and I think it’s easy to forget that in the midst of a time period of struggle. We saw it with Schalke last week and this week, TSM earlier in the season, and many more.

That said, Immortals have been slowly and steadily improving as well. I don’t think this team is particularly good by any means but unless it’s one of the top tier LCS teams, and I don’t consider 100 Thieves one of those, then I’m just not laying this kind of chalk unless they’re facing Golden Guardians. These teams simply are not consistent enough at closing games out as cleanly as they should be with a lead.

The time total over seems too easy here. I’m a little skeptical because 100 Thieves do have a clear intention to not play the kind of games that they end up in which is part of the reason why I’m not as bullish on them as some of my colleagues overall. That said, 31:00 is a fairly low total and I think it’s worth a shot in this instance. I’m also taking Immortals team total over 7.5. This is a low team total for a line priced this way and I generally think if we do see those longer game times then this is correlated to some extent given the style that these two play with.

My Picks:

Time Total: OVER 31:00 @ -137 (1.37 units)

Kill Total (team): Immortals OVER 7.5 kills @ -118 (1.18 units)

 


Dignitas +227 vs Team Liquid -303

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -104 / under -215)

Kill Spread: +7.5 @ -118 / -7.5 @ -111

Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 14.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over +104 / under -135)

 

I’m not a “believer” in Dignitas but they are playing solid League of Legends right now and I don’t think this is any sort of “fluke.” They’ve been a little lucky sure but this isn’t a DRX situation. Dignitas are being proactive on the map, picking simple to execute compositions, and are generally playing very confidently and competently. They’re outplaying people more often than they’re getting lucky. That said, Liquid are very good so I had to think about this one for a little while.

I do think Dignitas are worth a position here. Liquid are a way better team but this number is just a little bit too rich and I think Dig are a great value play. I was hoping we’d get a +8.5 here but I like this at 7.5 plenty and that’s where I’ll be although keep in mind that part of why Liquid are so poor against the spread is that their games have been generally lower totals (21.5 to 23.5 in most instances) while this is at 24.5. Speaking of that… I like the under here as well. I’m as big a Liquid backer as anyone and think they’re the actual best team in the LCS but this number is just a little too disrespectful not to have a piece of.

 

My Picks:

Kill Total: UNDER 24.5 @ -125 (1.25 units)

Kill Spread: Dignitas +7.5 kills @ -118 (1.18 units)

Moneyline: Dignitas +227 (0.5 units)

 


Golden Guardians +169 vs FlyQuest -222

 

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -116 / under -112)

Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -116 / +5.5 @ -112

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -105 / under -123)

At some point we’re going to hit rock bottom with Golden Guardians and get to a point where they can’t be any worse. At that point it’ll probably be correct to start backing them given the prices. There’s a chance it has already happened but I don’t really think I’ve seen enough validation of an uptrend to justify that sort of mentality with this team yet. They’re starting to show some signs here and there that they’ve figured out the professional game but most of their advantages are still just other teams screwing up so I’m skeptical.

FlyQuest have done nothing for me. I’m just not impressed with this team at all and as I’ve mentioned time and time again, unless it’s against Golden Guardians I’m just not going to trust these bottom of the table teams as favorites…. unless it’s against Golden Guardians. I feel like I’m going to vomit but just hold your nose and back FlyQuest here. It might be better to take the team total over as Golden Guardians have given up less than 14 kills in just two of their losses this season. Kill spread and alt spreads aren’t a bad look either but I don’t want a lot of exposure to this match.

My Picks:

Kill Total (team): FlyQuest OVER 13.5 kills @ -119 (1.19 units)

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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