Thursday, June 24th Recap

 

Rogue Warriors vs Royal Never Give Up (Net: +1.0 units)

Suning Gaming vs EDward Gaming (Net: -4.88 units)

 

Liiv Sandbox vs Gen.G (Net: +1.541 units)

Nongshim RedForce vs T1 (Net: -3.0 units)

 

 

LPL Net Total: -3.88 units

LCK Net Total: -1.459 units

 

Daily Net Total: -5.339 units

As I mentioned I’ll be trying to get ahead of the curve this week as I’ll be out of pocket all weekend for some events and travel. Posts will be up but I’ll be updating within them as I get to it over Wednesday, Thursday, and parts of Friday afternoon.

 

—-

 

LPL Summer 2021

Week Three – Day Five

 

 

Victory Five +147 (+1.5 maps @ -204, -1.5 @ +422)

vs

ThunderTalk (TT) Gaming -192 (-1.5 maps @ +157, +1.5 @ -667)

 

Map Moneyline: V5 +145 / TT -189

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -112 / under -115)

Kill Spread: +5.5 @ -119 / -5.5 @ -110

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 14.5

Time Total: 30:00 (over -119 / under -110)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  +118 / -152 (map), +123 / -159 (series), -260 / +196 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: Victory Five +1.5 maps (very light edge)

Starters:

V5 – Invincible, Pzx, Uniboy, Kepler, ZYF

TT – Langx, Xiaopeng, Ye, SamD, Pudding

Dominus Tale of the Tape Victory Five
-4.8 Gold Diff @ 10 min -2653.1
-931.3 Gold Diff @ 15 min -1368.2
-675.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min -361.8
-47.1 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -121.2
-134.1 Gold Diff / min first 20 -258.3
10.0 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -20.9
1637.2 Gold /min (GPM) 1585.7
-138.7 Gold / min vs Avg -190.3
-329.6 Gold Diff / min -368.1
-4.6 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -5.2
1519.9 Kill Agnostic GPM 1476.7
-183.2 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -197.2
1948.4 GPM in wins 1991.6
323.2 Gold Diff per min in wins 417.0
1606.1 GPM in losses 1534.9
-394.9 Gold Diff per min in losses -466.2
-320.9 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -359.3
3.3 Win-Adjusted GPM 46.4
-5.2 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 88.6
41.5 Dragon Control % 35.1
47.6 Herald Control % 38.9
30.8 Baron Control % 22.2
Quality Wins? 1.0
% of wins as Quality 100.0

 

 (These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 32.800%
2 1 28.030%
1 2 20.913%
0 2 18.258%
(Series Win): 60.830%

Pudding is getting the start for TT which sounds… delicious? I don’t know I’m not a comedian that’s not what you came here for. He’s an LDL guy for TT Young that plays almost entirely engaing supports with his most played being Rell, Galio, and Rakan. Perhaps TT are thinking some sort of Kalista look for this match? I don’t want to overthink it. Notably he has a Cho’gath support game that was a win with Senna.

These two are 15th and 16th in my model’s power rankings for strictly Summer performance. I mentioned on the podcast this week that I was just going to back TT here because I’m really just not seeing anything positive going on with this V5 lineup while TT at least have their moments. The thing is, I don’t know if I can actually make a logical justification for this position it’s strictly on gut and the “eye check.”

I’m just passing on this one. The “correct” thing to do is probably just take the underdog and close your nose but I can’t make a case and this number really isn’t all that great.

Projection model flagged the time total under as a reasonable look but I think this is primarily because these teams have been getting completely smashed by the rest of the league so I’m not buying that either.

No plays from me on this one.

 

My Picks:

no wagers

 

 

—–

 

 

LGD Gaming +262 (+1.5 maps @ -130, -1.5 @ +663)

vs

TOP Esports -357 (-1.5 maps @ +102, +1.5 @ -1250)

 

Map Moneyline: LGD +196 / TOP -256

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -112 / under -116)

Kill Spread: +7.5 @ -118 / -7.5 @ -110

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 15.5

Time Total: 30:00 (over -102 / under -127)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  +111 / -140 (map), +124 / -157 (series), -260 / +196 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: LGD series moneyline and +1.5 maps

Starters:

LGD – Fearness, Shad0w, Xiye, Kramer, Mark

TOP – Qingtian, Karsa, Knight, JackeyLove, Zhuo

League Rank TOP Tale of the Tape LGD League Rank
42.0 Gold Diff @ 10 min -617.0
-44.6 Gold Diff @ 15 min -1012.2
103.2 Gold Diff @ 20 min -1387.5
26.8 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -5.8
10.0 Gold Diff / min first 20 -29.1
372.4 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 390.5
1796.6 Gold /min (GPM) 1806.8
20.7 Gold / min vs Avg 30.9
103.2 Gold Diff / min 10.1
1.4 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 0.2
12.0 1585.9 Kill Agnostic GPM 1590.3 10.0
2.0 71.2 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -7.5 10.0
1.0 2007.4 GPM in wins 1916.3 13.0
1.0 467.8 Gold Diff per min in wins 266.4 15.0
9.0 1638.5 GPM in losses 1675.4 5.0
1.0 -170.2 Gold Diff per min in losses -297.5 10.0
112.0 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 18.9
1.0 62.3 Win-Adjusted GPM -28.8 13.0
1.0 139.4 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -62.0 15.0
60.0 Dragon Control % 41.7
42.9 Herald Control % 54.5
55.6 Baron Control % 60.0
3.0 Quality Wins? 2.0
100.0 % of wins as Quality 33.3

 (These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 30.818%
2 1 27.419%
1 2 21.972%
0 2 19.790%
(Series Win): 58.237%

Situations with teams like LGD are one of the most dangerous for your bankroll if you aren’t approaching things logically. Why do I say that? First, this is a team that the public was VERY excited about going into this season. You’ve got the first Western player narrative, the return of the crew, what seemed to be a settling roster, plus the “it can only be better than last season” angle all working together to build a hype machine for LGD. Second, they’ve mostly delivered on expectations in terms of their results. This can lead to an amplified case of confirmation bias.

LGD have looked decent so far but just because you’re performing better than you did last season doesn’t suddenly boost you into the tier of “good” teams. Most improved? Sure. They beat JDG 2-1 after some very questionable draft decisions by JDG and played competitive but ultimately losing series against BiliBili and RareAtom. To me, the verdict is still out on LGD. I’ve seen some good and some very bad.

TOP Esports haven’t had a great start to the season with a new player in Qingtian stepping in for one of the most underrated players on any team on the planet last split in 369. They also caught JDG and RareAtom in two of their first three but did smash TT in their other match. Realistically they should have won the match against RareAtom but a VERY clever Ryze backdoor all-in with the entire team stole it from right under their noses. TOP actually lost the game with a 6000+ gold lead.

I’ve been at this a long time and over that period of time I’ve moved more into the betting and numbers side of things and away from “gut” handicapping or sticking strictly to intuition. Ideally you’d blend both but that’s a very difficult balance to strike and you find yourself more opinionated than you’d think initially. With that in mind, I’m all over TOP Esports here for a few reasons.

First, the intuition that I just mentioned. LGD just don’t strike me as a particularly sound team on film and it’s so easy to get fooled by teams that are competent beating underprepared favorites. It can make a team look better than they actually are and I’m skeptical to say the least.

Second, TOP’s underlying numbers are still dominant like they were last season. They have the second best kill agnostic gold differential per minute in the LPL and although that outlier game mentioned above contributes to it, they also have the best gold differential per minute in losses by a country mile. They’re also first in win-adjusted gold per minute and gold differential per minute. TOP are doing a lot of things correctly they just haven’t been picking up the wins and that’s with a brand new player who will only grow with more time on stage.

Third, LGD rank 14th in the league in composite early game rating a blend of gold per minute and gold differential per minute as benchmarks of 10, 15, and 20 minutes. The only teams below them are Rogue Warriors, Victory Five, and ThunderTalk. Not exactly flattering company. Their “raw” statistics like traditional gold per minute looks solid, adjusted and kill agnostic totals less so.

It’s a bit early to rely too much on this data but another way to look at this series is exactly that, to just look at it. This is dirt cheap for TOP Esports. We are rarely afforded the luxury of backing this team at this kind of number and their “non-dominant” start combined with an overrated upstart are the only reason we’re getting there. LGD don’t have an edge anywhere on the map either which doesn’t help their case.

I’m trusting my gut on this one and backing TOP to sweep. This is going to look like a stupid good value in a couple of weeks.

If you do want to back the underdogs here I actually think first herald is the best market to do so. At +139 it’s an objective that LGD have picked up first in almost 64% of their games so far while TOP are less than 43%. I’m not playing it because I think there’s a reasonable chance this is just a wire-to-wire slaughter.

 

My Picks:

Map Spread: TOP Esports -1.5 maps @ +102 (1.5 units)

 


 

LCK Summer

Week Three – Day Three

 

 

DRX +146 (+1.5 maps @ -222, -1.5 @ +397)

vs

KT Rolster -196 (-1.5 maps @ +163, +1.5 @ -667)

 

Map Moneyline: DRX +127 / KT -169

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -114 / under -119)

Kill Spread: +3.5 @ -108 / -3.5 @ -127

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 12.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -118 / under -115)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  +184 / -254 (map), +267 / -391 (series), -132 / +100 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: KT Rolster series moneyline and -1.5 maps (both strong)

KT Tale of the Tape DRX
259.0 Gold Diff @ 10 min -466.4
24.1 Gold Diff @ 15 min -269.6
2.8 Gold Diff @ 20 min -613.6
22.3 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -54.9
21.8 Gold Diff / min first 20 -69.7
-104.0 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -598.9
1765.4 Gold /min (GPM) 1645.6
6.4 Gold / min vs Avg -113.4
-7.6 Gold Diff / min -234.2
-0.1 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -3.3
1591.2 Kill Agnostic GPM 1568.6
-4.2 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -141.8
1948.3 GPM in wins 1797.3
343.4 Gold Diff per min in wins 99.4
1612.9 GPM in losses 1607.6
-300.1 Gold Diff per min in losses -317.6
-5.0 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -231.6
51.4 Win-Adjusted GPM -99.5
62.6 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -181.4
45.8 Dragon Control % 37.0
47.6 Herald Control % 20.0
50.0 Baron Control % 16.7
4.0 Quality Wins? 0.0
80.0 % of wins as Quality 0.0

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 46.626%
2 1 29.577%
1 2 13.738%
0 2 10.060%
(Series Win): 76.202%

KT Rolster legitimately look like a completely different team this season and man oh man is it refreshing. They’ve completely overhauled their identity and have become a very proactive team rather than the overcautious to a fault, clumsy, weak mental game team that we saw all Spring split. DRX on the other hand… well, DRX honestly look like the same exact team except they aren’t catching all of the lucky breaks that they were last season. It doesn’t help that the metagame has shifted away from what they were good at which was scaling and waiting for opponents to beat themselves. You simply can’t sit on your heels anymore, especially with how powerful some of the snowball champions are at the moment.

I’m straight up fading DRX at any reasonable number until they show me that they can play this version of the game because quite frankly they look like the worst team in the LCK right now. They remind me A LOT of what Brion looked like last season. They were capable of beating teams if they screwed up but that was about it. I don’t want any part of them until I see that they’ve made adjustments.

It might look a little nuts to lay this big a moneyline but based on this season performance this is actually a massive value on KT Rolster and I don’t disagree even if you bake in some regression for DRX, which is being optimistic in my opinion. I also like the time total under here. Neutral objective unders like dragons and barons isn’t a bad look either and the model shows value on the under 12.5 towers although mostly because KT haven’t gone over that total a single time yet this season.

 

My Picks:

Moneyline: KT Rolster -196 (3.92 units)

Map Spread: KT Rolster -1.5 maps @ +163 (1 unit)

Time Total: Map 1 UNDER 33:00 @ -115 (1.15 units)

Time Total: Map 2 UNDER 33:00 @ -115 (1.15 units)

 


 

 

DAMWON Kia Gaming -500 (-1.5 maps @ -125, +1.5 @ -2500)

vs

Hanwha Life Esports +318 (+1.5 maps @ -105, -1.5 @ +829)

 

Map Moneyline: DWG -357 / HLE +245

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -123 / under -110)

Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -125 / +6.5 @ -109

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 8.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -123 / under -110)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  -230 / +168 (map), -336 / +231 (series), +112 / -148 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: Hanwha +1.5 maps

DWG Tale of the Tape HLE
-615.0 Gold Diff @ 10 min -161.9
-335.8 Gold Diff @ 15 min -99.5
-918.9 Gold Diff @ 20 min -231.5
-14.7 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -26.9
-19.8 Gold Diff / min first 20 -48.9
57.3 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -421.6
1788.4 Gold /min (GPM) 1689.8
29.4 Gold / min vs Avg -69.1
57.3 Gold Diff / min -150.5
0.8 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -2.0
1619.2 Kill Agnostic GPM 1552.3
48.0 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -79.3
1894.8 GPM in wins 1873.8
250.9 Gold Diff per min in wins 327.2
1575.4 GPM in losses 1637.3
-330.0 Gold Diff per min in losses -287.0
59.9 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -147.9
-2.0 Win-Adjusted GPM -23.1
-29.9 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 46.5
59.5 Dragon Control % 30.0
37.5 Herald Control % 58.8
76.9 Baron Control % 30.0
4.0 Quality Wins? 1.0
66.7 % of wins as Quality 50.0

 (These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 43.789%
2 1 29.625%
1 2 15.144%
0 2 11.443%
(Series Win): 73.413%

I posted the numbers for this matchup but you need to be aware that now that Summer is being weighed more heavily it’s important to consider the context. Especially in the first few weeks while data points can still impact the sample by a bigger percentage than when it builds up to a certain point.

Hanwha have had a rough go of it. Not only have they had a tough schedule but their one match win was a struggle against Fredit Brion who have also greatly improved. The thing with Hanwha Life is that they straight up haven’t looked good at all. We joked a lot last season about Chovy dragging this team kicking and screaming to the finish line but it’s become even more extreme so far this season. Whether or not Hanwha settles on a lineup that works or keeps shuffling things around almost doesn’t seem to matter at this point. There are clearly issues. Their fast-and-loose playstyle is beginning to haunt them as the bad teams actually punish them more frequently now.

DAMWON aren’t without concerns themselves. I’m not exactly sure what’s going on at this point as they’ve now run this Ghost-less iteration with ShowMaker playing ADC and Canyon playing mid lane a few times now. I’m actually starting to think there might be something seriously wrong behind the scenes maybe an injury or just an attitude problem or something like that. Or maybe DAMWON really are just unwinding and playing some “for fun” games for a few matches. After all, this team has essentially had no breaks since their rookie season as they’ve been to every single international tournament since and there’s a chance burnout is setting in and they just needed to mix things up for awhile. It’s just strange because Kkoma-led teams aren’t exactly ones to screw around historically, in fact they’re notoriously “try hards” so this is a bit strange to say the least.

I know the model likes Hanwha here and at some point this team will get off the schneid with a win. Chovy can solo carry games by himself so they’re going to get some but the truth of the matter is that I think Hanwha Life are legitimately a bad team unless they can fix some things and in a hurry. Everyone else got better (besides maybe DAMWON currently and DRX), they got worse.

It makes sense to take a shot on Hanwha here especially if DAMWON are still running the weird lineup but despite losing to Brion on Wednesday morning, this DAMWON team’s players legitimately outplayed individually in offroles in both games and smoked their competition for the most part against a much better team in Afreeca before this. I’d actually lay the -1.5 maps with DAMWON before backing Hanwha in their current form. It’s almost like an inverse “hope for a sub” situation. Normally we usually bet the dog and if the favorite tries out a prospect against the “bad” team it’s an added bonus for our big dog plays but this time I kind of like laying the DAMWON -1.5 early and I’m cool if they run the lineup they’ve been running but if we get the original back together it suddenly looks way juicier.

The kill total over makes a ton of sense in this one too given how these teams tend to play especially if we get the “for fun” DAMWON roster.

 

My Picks:

Map Spread: DAMWON -1.5 maps @ -125 (1.25 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 23.5 @ -123 (1.23 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 23.5 @ -130 (1.3 units)

 


 

LEC Summer

Week Three – Day One

 

 

Betting trends through two weeks:

LEC Kill Spread Winner? Kill Total Winner? Time Total Winner? FAV Team Total UND Team Total Dragons 4.5 Winner? Towers 11.5 Winner?
Over / Fav 6 10 12 10 15 13 13
Under / Dog 19 15 13 15 10 12 12
Average 5.42 26.26 31.92 15.18 10.50
Total Games
25

 

Favorites are 17-8 outright but just 6-19 against the kill spread which is enlightening. The totals going under more often than over definitely contribute to that but spread have still be rather slow to adjust so this is a potential place to attack if you don’t think the favorites “get it together.” I personally think the LEC is just very competitive. The top three or four teams are very strong (and different) but the rest of the table is more than capable of punishing sloppy games from them.

The rankings below blend the second half of Summer with the first two weeks of this split with a 75% weighting toward the new matches. Fully overhauled teams like Vitality only draw from their five games this season. Small sample notice.

After Week 2
Team Power # Rank
ROG 1.17752085 1
MAD 1.127633998 2
MSF 0.5590595174 3
G2 0.5481639367 4
FNC 0.3911317388 5
S04 -0.05525403832 6
VIT -0.6015831648 7
XL -0.9019261276 8
SK -0.9848424268 9
AST -1.228217487 10

 

 


 

Excel Esports +166 vs Misfits Gaming -204

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -116 / under -112)

Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -118 / +5.5 @ -114

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 14.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -129 / under -112)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  +286 / -371

Model Suggested Play: Misfits moneyline

I was rather bullish on Misfits coming into this season but I’m not nearly as bullish as the economy/objective model is quite yet, especially given the volatility on this patch. Excel bounced back from an unexciting week one to show well in their past three matches so it’s not like this is going to be a complete cake walk by any means but Misfits are the better team top-to-bottom and are in better form by the eye test. Misfits can be a little volatile so you have to be willing to take that risk on but this is a cheap price for them and I’ll be laying the moneyline.

My Picks:

Moneyline: Misfits -204 (2.04 units)

 


 

MAD Lions -556 vs SK Gaming +385

 

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -108 / under -122)

Kill Spread: -8.5 @ -127 / +8.5 @ -108

Team Kill Totals: 17.5 / 8.5

Time Total: 30:00 (over -115 / under -126)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  -737 / +477

Model Suggested Play: none (very light edge on MAD moneyline)

 

I think when it’s all said and done that SK Gaming are going to end up being the worst team in the LEC this season but MAD Lions are just too capable of beating themselves to not at least consider taking a shot on the underdogs here. Dog or pass.

My Picks:

no wagers

 


 

Rogue -275 vs Schalke 04 +218

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -122 / under -106)

Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -122 / +6.5 @ -111

Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -119 / under -121)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  -265 / +211

Model Suggested Play: none

Schalke are always a tricky team to evaluate because they’re not a bad team but just how good they are seems to be a constant struggle. Rogue may not be perfect this season but most of the performance metrics that indicated their strength last season are right in line with current performance, if not prepared for some improvement on current form.

I think Rogue completely smash this but the line is fair. Pass.

For those looking to back the dogs or fade Rogue here I think derivatives like first blood are the way to go.

My Picks:

no wagers

 


 

Astralis +239 vs Fnatic -323

 

Kill Total: 28.5 (over -110 / under -118)

Kill Spread: +7.5 @ -123 / -7.5 @ -110

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 18.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -116 / under -125)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  +287 / -401

Model Suggested Play: none (very light edge on FNC moneyline)

This new look Fnatic are a much different team even if the kills are still flowing. Their early game scripts are much more organized and they’ve looked like a much cleaner team despite the kill totals remaining high. Astralis have surprised a lot of people but I think they’re fairly obvious regression candidates. Their statistical performance does not at all match their results so far and considering the way they have pulled off their wins this makes sense. They’re capable of punishing teams and are willing to be aggressive in drafts but ultimately the level is not very strong.

Pass, lean Fnatic moneyline.

 

My Wagers:

no wagers


 

G2 Esports -222 vs Team Vitality +170

 

Kill Total: 28.5 (over -116 / under -112)

Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -122 / +5.5 @ -110

Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 11.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -112 / under -129)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  -296 / +220

Model Suggested Play: G2 moneyline

 

This is an interesting test of your take on the general volatility of the game on these patches. With how they’ve played in their first few matches, Vitality are naturally going to be a feast or famine team. Whether that continues remains to be seen but I’d say it’s a safe bet especially with the history of some of these players. Their risk taking is going to make them a decent choice as underdogs against good teams but maybe not reliable favorites against weak teams. Think something like Evil Geniuses.

Now, G2 have a little bit of that themselves but in general this iteration of G2 has been much less volatile in 2021 (besides the whole overall rough season that is). G2 have looked very good to start the Summer split off but they’re still a far cry from even 2020’s performance metrics.

I actually agree with the model and think G2 are worth a play as favorites here.

My Picks:

Moneyline: G2 -222 (2.22 units)

Parlay (2): G2 ML + Misfits ML @ +110 (1 unit)

 


LCS Summer

Week Four – Day One

 

 

Betting trends through three weeks:

LCS Kill Spread Winner? Kill Total Winner? Time Total Winner? FAV Team Total UND Team Total Dragons 4.5 Winner? Towers 11.5 Winner?
Over / Fav 17 21 23 21 26 21 25
Under / Dog 28 24 22 24 19 24 20
Average 5.41 24.81 31.64 14.43 9.83
Total Games
45

 

Favorites are 25-20 outright but just 17-28 against the kill spread in Summer. This is similar to the LEC.

Below are my power ratings through three weeks:

After Week 3
Team Power # Rank
100T 1.237929768 1
C9 0.4491136301 2
IMT 0.446756606 3
TL 0.4428865443 4
TSM 0.3992060006 5
CLG 0.1761272917 6
EG 0.04246768017 7
GGS -0.6114588102 8
FLY -1.239147473 9
DIG -1.31617111 10

 

Given the dominant victory over C9 last week and the general small sample size take the margins of this with a grain of salt but we’re starting to see the power structure calcify slowly but surely. It’s going to be a weird next few weeks with all of the roster changes happening and a lot of speculation about behinds the scenes turmoil.. Major takeaways, 100 Thieves are good, TSM have gotten away with a few wins they shouldn’t have but are still good, and Immortals are legitimately better than the rest of the pack so far.


 

Team Liquid -182 vs Evil Geniuses +140

 

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -116 / under -111)

Kill Spread: -4.5 @ -111 / +4.5 @ -116

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 11.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -112 / under -116)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  -155 / +120

Model Suggested Play: Evil Geniuses (light)

 

Oof… so a lot to unpack here in the past 24 hours. Jatt has resigned from his coaching position at Team Liquid. The team released a statement that can be found on Twitter. It seemed professional but not amicable if that makes sense. Seems like there was a fundamental disagreement of some sort.

Liquid also added that they are still planning on playing Alphari upon his return from personal leave next week. Santorin is also stepping back temporarily due to health concerns (seems like carpal tunnel or tendonitis) so he’s going to see a specialist.

I’m not going to speculate because this story changes seemingly every day but instead evaluate how this affects the immediate prospects of Liquid for handicapping purposes.

I already liked Evil Geniuses a bit in this spot but the “locker room” simply cannot be in great shape after  something like this happens. Sometimes teams will rally around a situation like this like Schalke did last season in the LEC but more often than not it’s just rough sledding for a few weeks as whatever new reality sets in. Liquid have slowly been “getting it together” over their past few matches but they still look clunky and not nearly as polished as they did during the Spring split. In the immediate future and, in my opinion the long term future as well, this is going to have an impact as I don’t think they’ll be able to clean things up in a timely manner.

The thing is that Liquid are still very strong players with experienced in-game leadership from CoreJJ and Jensen even with others leaving and a constant shuffle I wouldn’t rule out decent performances from this team. We aren’t going to see a complete dumpster fire from Liquid but I think it’s well within reason to expect an overall downgrade in quality from a team that was already struggling to get back from good to great.

Just back Evil Geniuses here. I was going to back them as dogs anyway and this news dropping just makes this even more appealing.

My Picks:

Moneyline: Evil Geniuses +140 (2 units)

 


 

100 Thieves -323 vs Dignitas +236

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -111 / under -116)

Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -122 / +6.5 @ -106

Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -106 / under -122)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  -1332 / +663

Model Suggested Play: 100 Thieves moneyline (large edge)

 

It’s extremely rare for me to back a favorite this large in a best-of-one regular season game but unless Dignitas completely reinvent the wheel and rally around all the drama this team is getting toward dumpster fire alert territory. There is veteran leadership and experience here to rally the troops and I wouldn’t be all that surprised if it happened but these are two teams trending opposite directions right now and with how well Abbedagge and Clozer are playing at the moment I have a tough time seeing how Dignitas win this. There’s almost a 300 gold kill-agnostic gold differential gap between these two teams right now.

 

My Picks:

Moneyline: 100 Thieves -323 (3.23 units)

Time Total: UNDER 32:00 @ -122 (1.22 units)

 


 

Cloud 9 -667 vs Golden Guardians +394

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -109 / under -125)

Kill Spread: -8.5 @ -116 / +8.5 @ -116

Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 7.5

Time Total: 30:00 (over -125 / under -108)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  C9 -281 / GGS +199

Model Suggested Play: Golden Guardians moneyline

Zven will be returning to the lineup for Cloud 9. We talked a lot about all of these roster shuffles this week on the podcast with Locodoco, I’d encourage you to check that out.

Generally I don’t think this will miraculously fix everything by getting the boys back together. Cloud 9 have had team wide issues and I still think they’re very heavily reliant on Perkz and Blaber to get the ball rolling in games. Teams have seemed to figure that out by drafting in ways to make that more challenging.

I want to hold my nose and back the Guardians here but my only hesitation is that Cloud 9 have utterly destroyed the bad teams in the league like FlyQuest this season so I’m a little less excited about this as a live dog but it’s definitely the play with how suspect Cloud 9 have looked recently.

Hold your nose and don’t be shocked if GGS get perfect gamed.

My Picks:

Kill Spread: GGS +8.5 kills @ -116 (1.16 units)

Moneyline: GGS +394 (0.25 units)

 

 


 

Immortals -115 vs CLG -115

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -119 / under -114)

Kill Spread: -0.5 @ -112 / +0.5 @ -120

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 11.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -133 / under -101)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: IMT -142 / CLG +107

Model Suggested Play: Immortals moneyline

 

CLG went 3-0 last weekend which is the only reason this is even money. Overall, Immortals have been a much more consistent performer thus far in Summer and own the advantage in just about every adjusted performance metric. I think the major difference here is that Immortals are just fundamentally solid and have a strong grasp on the metagame and have all season. Meanwhile, CLG completely 180’d last week and are picking essentially “easiest possible thing” which a lot of people like to see but picks like Vi are not a long term solution they’re just a patch for a sinking ship.

If you think the CLG ship can make it another few weeks with patches in the hull then I can see the reasoning here but I think Immortals continue to be an underrated team by bother the market and masses in general. Even if CLG were as good as I’d anticipated them to be I think I’d favor Immortals in this spot.

 

My Picks:

Moneyline: Immortals -115 (1.15 units)

Kill Spread (alt): Immortals -2.5 kills @ +102 (0.5 units)

 


Team Solo Mid -303 vs FlyQuest +216

 

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -116 / under -116)

Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -123 / +6.5 @ -110

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 8.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -106 / under -127)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  TSM -421 / FLY +284

Model Suggested Play: TSM moneyline

 

So TSM can be a little tricky. Do I think this team has won a few games they had no business winning? Absolutely. Does that really impact their overall performance metrics? Not really. TSM are a few wins above expectation at the moment but that doesn’t necessarily mean they’re a bad team. FlyQuest ARE a bad team.

Even with the flukey wins in consideration the model still shows an edge for TSM here and while it’s a little nauseating backing a favorite this big right now I do think it’s the correct position. TSM have had a strong read on the metagame and their continuity is proving potent in a league with a lot of moving parts. They might not measure up to 100 Thieves and the like but I’d expect TSM to take care of business against the weaker teams in the league.

 

My Picks:

Moneyline: TSM -303 (3.03 units)

Kill Total (alt): UNDER 22.5 @ +105 (1 unit)

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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