Apologies for the late post tonight I had to bring my brother to the hospital today which soaked up my entire afternoon of research time. He’s ok it was just a time consuming endeavor. With limited time I had to shorten the LEC section a bit. I still give thoughts on each game for you.
Thursday June 18th Recap
Victory Five vs BiliBili Gaming (Net: -0.5 units)
Game one of this series wasn’t particularly good by either side. A lot of weird decisions and what looked like miscommunications on plays far in advance of them happening.
Game two BLG set up a nice dive on Biubiu’s Morder before six taht could have set him massively behind but then they overstayed and fed the kills right back to them. I’m not sure if pro players are still getting used to the new teleport like I am but it seems like if you’re playing every day you shouldn’t really have any excuses for being surprised by it. This has been an issue in multiple regions but I digress. V5 had a superior scaling team and just like in most of their other wins this season showed that they are incapable of closing without making a lot of mistakes along the way. If BLG didn’t put themselves so far behind in this game I’d be willing to bet V5 would have botched the close or never been in the position to do so in the first place.
Game three was a much stronger opening and V5’s first clean close of the season.
Both of these teams remain enigmas. They show flashes where they look really good but then consistently show a fundamental lack of understanding on big picture concepts and poor setup velocity on macro decision points like neutral objectives or what to do with a lead. They flounder around too much. Against good, consistent teams this will be a problem and I think both of these teams will struggle greatly but even the good LPL teams right now are struggling in the consistency department.
JDG vs RNG (Net: -1.81 units)
This series got really weird after a nearly four hour technical pause. It’s hard to take much away from this series unfortunately because long pauses really disrupt your focus and the ability to concentrate so these tend to become a bit of a crapshoot when they do happen. Each team looks really great from ahead and really powerless from behind which probably means that we can trust these teams with a lead slightly more than most.
Keeping in mind the long pause I don’t want to jump all over JDG for “slumping” or a “hangover” or even regression but we’re now three series into the season and they still appear to be shaking off some of the rust. JDG are a smart team, that was their main point of strength during the Spring split and their execution matched it. Neither has been quite as sharp in Summer. I expect them to round into form eventually but tread cautiously until we see it again.
Credit to RNG, specifically Xiaohu for putting up a great performance after that brutal loss to LNG.
LPL Total: -2.31 units
KT Rolster vs Team Dynamics (Net: 0, no action)
Team Dynamics looks REALLY good. REALLY REALLY good. They were quick to make decisions on swaps, consistent in their decision making, and individually outplayed KT Rolster. This was an impressive showing. We don’t want to react heavily to one game but put a little stock up symbol next to Team Dynamics. They’re going to be a competitive team as we predicted and probably better than the C tier we placed them in. KT Rolster looked off but we also don’t want to jump to any conclusions here either. Don’t downgrade KT Rolster because they “lost to a bad team.” We don’t know if TD are good, bad, or in-between yet. They were sluggish and got outplayed today. That’s all. It might not mean anything or it might be a sign. Just wait and see.
SeolHaeOne Prince (APK) vs Hanwha Life (Net: -2.805 units)
No exaggeration. This might have been the single worst series of professional Korean LOL I’ve watched in 7 or 8 years since way back in the OGN online qualifier days. I’m not going to go into it at risk of an aneurism but there was just so many dumb mistakes, poor mechanical plays, lack of understanding, poor macro… just everything. If I was coaching either of these teams everyone is benched for next series. That was embarrassing. It speaks to a larger concern I’ve had for the possible deterioration of professional play overall but I don’t want to jump to any wild conclusions after a single series. Just know that this wasn’t just a “a weird one” or “one that got away from these teams.” Those happen to even the best teams from time to time but this was just a full on clown fiesta and not the fun kind. I’m not entirely surprised about APK’s performance but Hanwha’s was a bit surprising. At least Viper and Lehends looked back in form as they tried to 2v8. Both of these teams are on high alert for dumpster fire status though so stay tuned.
LCK Total: -2.805 units
Daily Total Net: -5.115 units
This hits keep coming. The BLG bet was looking outstanding after game one as was the JDG one but as this season has been going, it was just a tease as both ended up losing. That’s been the Summer Special so far. Losing in the worst possible way. At least we got some relevant data points today. BLG and V5 still both look bad to me, records be damned, and Team Dynamics looked great in their debut. We also got our first example of a KT Rolster lineup possibility and a surprise CaD sighting that I don’t think anybody saw coming. I’m just going to ignore that APK/Hanwha series before I go on a Twitter tirade.
LPL Summer 2020
Week 3 – Day 5
FunPlus Phoenix -196 (-1.5 maps @ +158) vs
Team WE +153 (+1.5 maps @ -204, -1.5 @ +389)
Kill Total: 26.5 (over -109 / under -120)
Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 10.5
Kill Spread: -4.5 @ -119 / +4.5 @ -110
Time Total: OTB
FPX – Khan, Tian, Doinb, Lwx, Crisp
WE – Morgan, Beishang, Teacherma, Jiumeng, Missing
Kill totals have gone UNDER in 7 out of 9 Team WE games
Both of these teams are well below the league average in gold differential up until 20 minutes. In FPX’s case it’s because they shot themselves in the foot against LNG about four different times over the course of the early games in that series and they’ve only played five total games. On the other hand, Team WE have turned into this all-in on Jiumeng team and it’s been working for them as apparently nobody in the world knows how to punish or close a game out anymore and Jiumeng, one of the better Aphelios players in the world, has gotten him in 6 out of 10 games this season.
The LPL tends to be slow to adapt to the teams they’re facing and the world in general has been slow to adapt to Aphelios. There are ways to deal with him. Jarvan+Rumble, Nocturne, Hecarim, better scaling lanes like Lulu/Kog or Twitch for example are just a few but teams are still consistently drafting as if they can treat him like any other ADC and not the 4.5 out of 5 tool player that he is.
The reason I’m talking so much about Aphelios is that FPX are one of the more intelligent teams in terms of game planning and scouting in the LPL and I have to assume that they see this trend as clear as day and won’t let Jiumeng take it or punish him severely for doing so.
I also think Doinb is uniquely suited to combat Teacherma’s champion pool. I’ve discussed the Syndra vs Teacherma here before but Doinb only has three professional games on Syndra and just one win. I’m more thinking that he’s a better Galio and plays almost all of these pseudo global champions that aim to play outside of lane much better than Teacherma does. It poses a unique threat in the draft for Team WE that might allow FPX to simply be able to ban Aphelios if they really want to.
FPX started off rusty but looked much sharper in their last series against BLG and I’d expect a similar showing here. Team WE won’t be able to continue getting away with gold deficits every single game and winning especially without Aphelios.
Underdog Win: 32.31
“G” Projected Total: 27.04
The numbers are now weighing this season a bit more so with the obscenely high totals between these two teams they’re going to look high. Expect these numbers to come down significantly over the next few weeks. For this game inparticular I’d expect a chippy affair but that this total is about right. If anything I’d actually lean to the under.
Moneyline: FunPlus -196 (1.96 units)
Spread: FunPlus -1.5 maps @ +158 (0.5 units)
eStar Gaming -120 (-1.5 maps @ +219) vs
LNG Esports -110 (+1.5 maps @ -294, -1.5 @ +277)
Kill Total: 25.5 (over -122 / under -105)
Kill Spread: -2.5 @ -110 / +1.5 @ -110
Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 11.5
Time Total: OTB
EST – Xiaobai, Wei, Fenfen, Wink, ShiauC
LNG – Chenlun17, Xx, Maple, Light, Duan
LNG have scored first blood in 6 out of 7 games this season (Light 3x)
These two teams have been relatively competitive through the 20 minute mark on a per game average basis when compared to the league averages but both have this tendency to feel the opposite. LNG have scored first blod in 6 out of 7 games which explains their 431 gold differential at 10 (about the same amount as first blood bonus). So I dug a little deeper and re-watched some of their early game film to see if it was anything in particular that Xx was doing with his pathing and didn’t find anything other than opponents executing poorly and LNG capitalizing on the situation. FPX and RNG both spoon-fed advantages to LNG it wasn’t created on their own and prior to that LNG were timid against Suning and missed out on a handful of opportunities to take advantage of a lead in both games of that series.
eStar haven’t been very clean so far but they’ve been the ones creating opportunities for themselves through one medium or another. As the season goes along I’d expect the execution to improve and for them to remain a good team.
The difficult question in this series is that LNG’s victories have come from overzealous opponents handing them victories. It’s not like they’re been playing stellar defense or anything it’s just been purely bad execution. But eStar haven’t been super clean in their execution so you see the conflict here.
I’m going to be on eStar because, especially right now, proactive teams should have a huge leg up assuming good enough execution. We have yet to see LNG face a team that’s playing crisp mechanically and I think eStar will challenge that notion frequently. I’m also curious to see how LNG look when they aren’t spotted a first blood lead early in the game.
The other angle to this is that we’re getting line value. This line opened at eStar -244 and we can get -123 now off of some reaction to recent matches.
Underdog Win: 31.25
“G” Projected Total: 25.13
Typically, eStar are an over team but so far this season they’re 4-4 over/under the kill total. If you look strictly at KPW/KPL stats for these two teams this projects closer to a 23.6 in which case the under looks great. LNG have a history of rolling over and as we saw in their first series, when you can get a leg up on them they’re very bad and very timid when it comes to finding windows to strike. If eStar get out to a lead here I’d expect this to come in under and that’s what I’m expecting.
Kill total unders are hitting at a 56.7% rate throughout the LPL this season and the trending number even after adjustments has maintained that course.
Moneyline: eStar Gaming -120 (1.2 units)
Spread: eStar -1.5 maps @ +219 (0.5 units)
Kill Total: Map 1 UNDER 25.5 @ -108 (1.08 units)
Kill Total: Map 2 UNDER 25.5 @ -105 (1.05 units)
LCK Summer 2020
Week 1 – Day 3
Early on in the LCK it will be much more evaluation than data focused handicapping since a few of these teams have made substantial changes.
Sandbox Gaming +233 (+1.5 maps @ -137, -1.5 @ +540) vs
DAMWON Gaming -312 (-1.5 maps @ +107)
Kill Total: 21.5 (over -119 / under -110)
Kill Spread: +5.5 @ -114 / -5.5 @ -115
Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 12.5
Time Total: OTB
DAMWON looked great at the Mid-Season Cup and during playoffs relative to the rest of their Spring season. ShowMaker is also curerntly rank one AND two on the Korean solo queue ladder and prior to that leveled a fresh account to challenger only being allowed to play a single game on each champion (this is ridiculously impressive).
Sandbox looked shaky in their debut but also had a few draft errors with Joker as the on stage drafter while Yamato was still en route to Korea. I’d expect a significantly better performance than what we just saw just in general but even more so in the coming weeks.
The trick to this series is that DAMWON can be a very two-faced team and they’re just stone cold stupid sometimes. They’re very much like old Invictus Gaming, ridiculously talented but dumb as nails at times so they’ll frequently punt games. Sweating on DAMWON is always a stomach churner and isn’t for the faint of heart but I’ve got a lot of faith in them to turn around their poor Spring season. They were playing their best league of the year before the break and the immense talent advantage combined with a Sandbox that’s still acclimating to Yamato poses a nice opportunity for them to pounce, especially since they haven’t played yet and Sandbox have.
On the podcast I went with Sandbox in this spot but after seeing their first series I’m questioning how in form they’re going to be at least early in the season. This isn’t an overreaction to the whooping they took, that can happen to anyone, but I wasn’t aware that Yamato wasn’t in Korea yet and now am. The form in that series certainly didn’t help though.
I’m staying away from other markets for now until I get more data. Korea has gone under the kill total in 6 out of 10 games so far which isn’t surprising given the current metagame and the regional style as it is. If you consider the fiestas we got between Hanwha and APK today contributing two to that number alone, then it’s gone under in 6 out of 8.
That said, DAMWON aren’t afraid to mix it up and are one of the feistier LCK teams. Still, I’d lean under in this spot but will be passing for the time being.
Moneyline: DAMWON -312 (1.56 units)
Spread: DAMWON -1.5 maps @ +107 (0.5 units)
DragonX -122 (-1.5 maps @ +239) vs
Gen.G -105 (+1.5 maps @ -323, -1.5 @ +259)
Kill Total: 21.5 (over -112 / under -116)
Kill Spread: -0.5 @ -110 / +0.5 @ -119
Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 10.5
Time Total: OTB
DragonX had some absolutely brilliant play against T1 and some really boneheaded moments as well but man when they operate a complex composition like the one in game three where they were outscaled and just navigated that vehicle to near perfection it’s just a thing of beauty to watch.
While I personally like DragonX more as a team and have questions about Gen.G’s new look without Edgar, I still respect Gen.G as an elite three team in Korea. I would have taken plus odds on either side in this spot. Along with Cloud 9 and G2 these two teams were the best statistical teams in the world last season and it wouldn’t at all surprise me to see that again.
I have enough respect for Gen.G to pass on the moneyline but I do like opportunities like this to take split 2-0’s or the under 2.5 maps whichever is a more profitable endeavor at your book. In my case the under 2.5 maps is similar in payout to if Gen.G 2-0’d with the half stake on each 2-0 so I’ll be there. I’ve mentioned it many times before but just because a series looks competitive on paper doesn’t mean it will go to three games.
Again, I’ll be waiting but I’d expect this series to go under if I had to pick.
Map Total: UNDER 2.5 maps @ -128 (1.28 units)
LEC Summer 2020
Week 2 – Day 1
Again, apologies for the brevity of this section as I had an unforeseen hospital visit to help my brother out with this afternoon.
Kill totals went UNDER in 9 out of 10 games last week. Understandably the books have adjusted to more “NA and LCK” range numbers. While I think the week one jitters might be out and teams will loosen up a little this week, I still don’t think this metagame has been conducive to high kill total games unless things go awry. If you think a team is going to control a game the under is appetizing until further notice.
Team Vitality +174 vs Rogue -227
Rogue have looked incredibly sharp and while Vitality are much improved from last season and appear functional, I don’t think they’ve got enough going on to stifle Rogue.
Kill Total: UNDER 22.5 @ -120 (1.2 units)
Kill Spread: Rogue -6.5 kills @ -125 (1.25 units)
Misfits -185 vs SK Gaming +144
SK Gaming looked quite good in their first week and it’s exciting to have both of the bottom dwellers in the LEC looking better coming into Summer. I also think this number is a bit of an overreaction to the “off” week Misfits had. Before the season started this would have been -250 or -300 for Misfits. Some correction is warranted but not this much. This is more an endorsement of Misfits to look better this week than skepticism about SK although I do question how they’ll look against a more proactive team like Misfits compared to their opponents last week.
Kill Total: UNDER 22.5 @ -119 (1.19 units)
Kill Spread: Misfits -4.5 kills @ -111 (0.555 units)
Kill Spread: Misfits -5.5 kills @ +102 (0.25 units)
Kill Spread: Misfits -6.5 kills @ +138 (0.2 units)
G2 Esports -667 vs Schalke 04 +420
I honestly feel bad for Schalke here. I don’t think this team is going to be as bad as they were last week but G2 coming off of a week of poor preparation due to Perkz’s father’s passing and other factors had them looking off (but still terrifying). Stylistically this is a nightmare for Schalke who play similarly to Origen. While Origen managed to take a game off G2, over the past two years that’s been far from the case with G2 taking the vast majority of those matchups.
Unfortunately, G2 are going to lay a biblical beatdown on this team.
Kill Spread: G2 -8.5 kills @ -118 (1.18 units)
Kill Spread: G2 -9.5 kills @ +100 (0.4 units)
Kill Spread: G2 -10.5 kills @ +119 (0.3 units)
Kill Spread: G2 -11.5 kills @ +145 (0.2 units)
Kill Spread: G2 -12.5 kills @ +170 (0.1 units)
Origen -357 vs Excel +261
I don’t think either of these teams are as bad as they looked in the first week but I’ve got a hell of a lot more faith in Origen to get the job done here. Normally I’d love the under but Origen have been messing around with Ekko and some other more skirmish oriented champions. I don’t think they’ll experiment after the week they just had but I’ll stay away from the total just in case.
Kill Spread: Origen -6.5 kills @ -128 (1.28 units)
Fnatic -213 vs MAD Lions +164
The feature match for Friday between #2 and #3. We talked about this one on the podcast quite a bit but I think this is a decent bullet to fire against the top two teams. MAD Lions have shown a lot of flexibility and willingness to take risks and in a best of one format while also being a formidable team as it is, that’s an alluring underdog position.
These two teams are also quite bloody so I’ll take the over here even though it’s higher. I think we’ll see these two going all out and MAD love them a fight.
Kill Total: OVER 25.5 @ -116 (1.16 units)
Moneyline: MAD Lions +164 (1 unit)
LCS Summer 2020
Week 2 – Day 1
Golden Guardians -149 vs Counter Logic Gaming +117
Kill Total: 21.5 (over -105 / under -123)
Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 9.5
Kill Spread: -3.5 @ -116 / +3.5 @ -112
Time Total: OTB
I love this new looks Golden Guardians team built around Closer and Damonte. In a region full of identity crisis’ they know exactly who they are and are playing confidently and decisively. That alone is going to beat a lot of teams in North America as long as they can execute at a reasonable level. Counter Logic Gaming looked ok against Immortals but honestly, nobody really won that game from the perspective of “good League of Legends.” Both teams made a bunch of mistakes, showed no idea how to set up for an objective or navigate a fight, and mechanically there were so many erorrs that I immediately said “these are the two worst teams in North America” out loud in my office while watching.
While I do think there is going to be some “figuring out” of Golden Guardians style, I like a proactive team over the opposite any day of the week right now. Continue asking a potent question and you will test whether teams have the answer or not. That’s what Golden Guardians have done. I’m sure they’ll mess up from time to time and look really bad doing so but they have the right idea and they’re confident just like I am, in their ability to beat CLG tonight.
I’ll be splitting my exposure over the spread and moneyline instead of just the moneyline.
Moneyline: Golden Guardians -149 (0.3725 units)
Kill Spread: Golden Guardians -5.5 @ +113 (0.25 units)
Kill Spread: Golden Guardians -6.5 @ +138 (0.25 units)
Immortals +214 vs Team Solo Mid -286
Kill Total: 20.5 (over -116 / under -112)
Team Kill Totals: 6.5 / 13.5
Kill Spread: +7.5 @ -128 / -7.5 @ -101
Time Total: OTB
Immortals and CLG both looked so profoundly terrible last week on a foundational and individual level that I’m fading them until they prove otherwise. I think TSM are going to have their issues eventually but just on talent alone and Immortals lack of… well, anything I’m going to be on TSM here. I’m about as bearish as you can be on TSM but Immortals are already on dumpster fire alert.
I do think that, given the current metagame and NA performance overall that this is a very large kill spread especially relative to the moneyline number so I’m going to do something I rarely do and pay the premium for a lower number which is still better than the moneyline by a substantial amount.
Kill Spread: TSM -5.5 kills @ -156 (1.17 units)
You’ll notice weird staking sizes here. I’m shaving a piece off of both here to combine them into a small parlay.
Parlay: Golden Guardians ML + TSM -5.5 @ +149 (0.25 units)