Thursday, July 29th Recap

 

ThunderTalk vs RNG (Net: +0.47 units)

LNG Esports vs TOP Esports (Net: -0.29 units)

 

Afreeca vs DAMWON (Net: +1.07 units)

Hanwha Life vs DRX (Net: +2.91 units)

 

 

LPL Net Total: +0.18 units

LCK Net Total: +3.98 units

 

Daily Net Total: +4.16 units

 

 


LPL Summer 2021

Week Eight – Day Five

 

 

Victory Five +1659 (+1.5 maps @ +440, -1.5 @ +4500)

vs

EDward Gaming -3800 (-1.5 maps @ -714)

 

Map Moneyline: V5 +920 / EDG -2500

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -123 / under -105)

Kill Spread: +11.5 @ -103 / -11.5 @ -127

Team Kill Totals: 6.5 / 18.5

Time Total: 28:00 (over +113 / under -147)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: +616 / -1148 (map), +1932 / -5454 (series), +318 / -466 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play:  vomit… V5 +1.5 maps (light)

Starters:

V5 – Aliez, Pzx, Uniboy, Kepler, ZYF

EDG – Flandre, Jiejie, Scout, Viper, Meiko

Trends
EDG as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) V5 as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 10 3 -1467 Matches as Underdogs 0 12 +646
Against Map Spread 9 4 -88 Against Map Spread 3 9 +114
Against Kill Spread 17 10 8.0 Against Kill Spread 11 16 +9
Kill Totals 14 13 25.35 Kill Totals 9 18 25.58
Team Kill Totals 13 14 16.19 Team Kill Totals 9 18 8.17
Game Time Totals 15 12 30.5 Game Time Totals 12 15 29.67
Dragons over 4.5 10 17 Dragons over 4.5 10 17
Towers over 11.5 12 15 Towers over 11.5 11 16

 

 

League Rank EDG Tale of the Tape Victory Five League Rank
8 218.4 Gold Diff @ 10 min -2891.5 17
6 512.3 Gold Diff @ 15 min -1302.2 17
6 1600.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min -310.6 17
62.7 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -118.2
3 147.2 Gold Diff / min first 20 -209.1 16
2 437.9 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 55.3 13
3 1882.0 Gold /min (GPM) 1588.7 17
93.6 Gold / min vs Avg -199.7
1 211.3 Gold Diff / min -347.2 17
1 2.9 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -4.9 17
4 1634.8 Kill Agnostic GPM 1483.8 17
2 103.1 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -216.0 17
7 1969.5 GPM in wins 1898.1 14
1 383.4 Gold Diff per min in wins 291.4 14
10 1631.8 GPM in losses 1553.0 17
4 -280.7 Gold Diff per min in losses -420.9 16
215.7 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -342.8
7 23.3 Win-Adjusted GPM -48.1 14
1 63.5 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -28.5 14
2 60.4 Dragon Control % 30.1 17
2 61.1 Herald Control % 36.2 15
3 61.1 Baron Control % 17.1 17
13.0 Quality Wins? 2.0
65.0 % of wins as Quality 66.7

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 79.219%
2 1 17.420%
1 2 2.152%
0 2 1.209%
(Series Win): 96.639%

Oh boy… well I don’t think I’ve ever seen a map spread at this large a number maybe ever. I’m half tempted to take the +1.5 maps… but this V5 team is just awful.

I think your best bet in this one is to take underdog firsts like first blood at +151 (V5 have a 58.6% FB rate) or just avoid this altogether. I’ll be doing the latter.

 

My Picks:

no wagers

 


 

Rogue Warriors +295 (+1.5 maps @ +103, -1.5 @ +697)

vs

Team WE -417 (-1.5 maps @ -132)

 

Map Moneyline: RW +209 / WE -278

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -105 / under -123)

Kill Spread: +6.5 @ -104 / -6.5 @ -125

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 16.5

Time Total: 30:00 (over -119 / under -110)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: +363 / -527 (map), +725 / -1527 (series), +171 / -225 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play:  Team WE series moneyline and -1.5 maps (strong)

Starters:

RW – Zdz, Xiaohao, Forge, Betty, QiuQiu

WE – Breathe, Beishang, Shanks, Elk, Missing

 

Trends
WE as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) RW as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 5 2 -832 Matches as Underdogs 4 9 +617
Against Map Spread 3 4 -1 Against Map Spread 7 6 +102
Against Kill Spread 11 7 6.8 Against Kill Spread 17 15 +8
Kill Totals 9 9 25.64 Kill Totals 14 18 25.50
Team Kill Totals 9 9 15.50 Team Kill Totals 18 14 8.35
Game Time Totals 9 9 30.9 Game Time Totals 16 16 29.54
Dragons over 4.5 7 11 Dragons over 4.5 13 19
Towers over 11.5 8 10 Towers over 11.5 9 23

 

League Rank WE Tale of the Tape Rogue Warriors League Rank
4 515.4 Gold Diff @ 10 min -381.6 13
1 1914.2 Gold Diff @ 15 min -1083.0 13
4 2375.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min -687.5 14
36.0 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -119.3
4 66.8 Gold Diff / min first 20 -108.5 17
9 298.5 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 19.8 14
6 1832.2 Gold /min (GPM) 1674.3 15
43.8 Gold / min vs Avg -114.1
6 88.0 Gold Diff / min -207.8 15
5 1.3 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -2.9 15
9 1613.6 Kill Agnostic GPM 1531.7 15
8 44.9 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -126.8 15
8 1950.3 GPM in wins 1896.9 15
5 359.7 Gold Diff per min in wins 207.5 17
6 1655.0 GPM in losses 1576.3 16
11 -319.6 Gold Diff per min in losses -390.5 14
92.4 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -203.4
8 4.0 Win-Adjusted GPM -49.3 15
5 39.8 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -112.5 17
8 53.0 Dragon Control % 34.4 16
4 60.0 Herald Control % 45.8 13
7 54.8 Baron Control % 39.0 14
10.0 Quality Wins? 5.0
55.6 % of wins as Quality 45.5

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 66.183%
2 1 24.682%
1 2 5.657%
0 2 3.477%
(Series Win): 90.865%

Rogue Warriors have been frisky underdogs but a fairly fraudulent team while WE are underperforming their statistical expectation despite being a pretty solid team overall. Most of WE’s issues are on a game-to-game basis in regards to consistency.

I’m not buying Rogue Warriors at all. I think they’ve essentially flipped heads a whole lot in their past few weeks. It’s no disrespect to the revamped roster but this is reminding me a lot more of the Haro version of RW from previous years. Xiaohao is doing quite the impression I must say, it’s uncanny how similar the two are.

I think RW are probably live for a game but I’d be kicking myself if I didn’t take WE here. There’s actually still some value on the WE first tower despite the hefty price tag. They hold a 76.67% FT rate on the season to RW’s 33.33%.

 

My Picks:

Map Spread: WE -1.5 maps @ -132 (1.32 units)

Prop: Map 1 WE first tower @ -200 (2 units)

Prop: Map 2 WE first tower @ -196 (1.96 units)

 


LCK Summer 2021

Week Eight – Day Two

 

 

Nongshim RedForce -167 (-1.5 maps @ +157, +1.5 @ -526)

vs

Liiv Sandbox +137 (+1.5 maps @ -204, -1.5 @ +350)

 

Map Moneyline: NS -152 / LSB +119

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -109 / under -120)

Kill Spread: -4.5 @ -115 / +4.5 @ -114

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -104 / under -123)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -119 / -106 (map), -120 / +100 (series), +239 / -326 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: LSB series moneyline, +1.5 maps, and -1.5 maps

Trends
NS as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) LSB as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 6 2 -199 Matches as Underdogs 6 3 +220
Against Map Spread 2 6 +168 Against Map Spread 8 1 -131
Against Kill Spread 9 12 3.9 Against Kill Spread 15 9 +5
Kill Totals 9 12 23.25 Kill Totals 11 13 23.50
Team Kill Totals 10 11 13.00 Team Kill Totals 16 8 9.28
Game Time Totals 11 10 32.9 Game Time Totals 9 15 32.44
Dragons over 4.5 10 11 Dragons over 4.5 9 15
Towers over 11.5 5 15 Towers over 11.5 14 10

 

League Rank NS Tale of the Tape LSB League Rank
1.0 817.9 Gold Diff @ 10 min -56.9 6.0
7.0 -187.5 Gold Diff @ 15 min 384.5 2.0
2.0 109.5 Gold Diff @ 20 min 1203.5 4.0
-35.5 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 22.6
7.0 2.2 Gold Diff / min first 20 4.0 5.0
3.0 147.9 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 32.6 5.0
5.0 1787.0 Gold /min (GPM) 1787.1 4.0
17.6 Gold / min vs Avg 17.7
4.0 51.8 Gold Diff / min -0.5 5.0
4.0 0.7 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 0.0 5.0
6.0 1611.4 Kill Agnostic GPM 1629.5 4.0
4.0 15.3 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 6.6 5.0
8.0 1888.6 GPM in wins 1934.2 5.0
9.0 248.5 Gold Diff per min in wins 275.0 8.0
8.0 1600.6 GPM in losses 1600.7 7.0
4.0 -308.9 Gold Diff per min in losses -349.6 10.0
53.4 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 1.1
8.0 -29.6 Win-Adjusted GPM 16.0 5.0
9.0 -56.0 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -29.5 8.0
5.0 50.6 Dragon Control % 53.9 4.0
6.0 52.9 Herald Control % 57.8 4.0
4.0 55.8 Baron Control % 56.3 3.0
6.0 Quality Wins? 6.0
35.3 % of wins as Quality 50.0

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 26.482%
2 1 25.709%
1 2 24.249%
0 2 23.560%
(Series Win): 52.191%

 

We went into a lot of detail on the podcast about our thoughts on Nongshim. There’s clearly a pretty big rift between their statistical performance and results. While there is some degree of regression that we should expect from this, or perhaps question the sustainability of their results, it’s also worth considering that teams that play the way that they do aren’t always going to pop off the stat sheet. Even with that in mind, I think you just have to take your spots to fade them when the price is decent. I think this is a good price. Sandbox have been playing very well and this is a much more important match for them as they’re still battling against a crowded middle of the table while Nongshim sit atop the league and have essentially locked playoffs already (not mathematically…).

Motivation angle, overrated albeit good team, against a hungry, underrated underdog.

I also like Sandbox first herald as they’ve emphasized that in their play while Nongshim prefer to absorb pressure, stack dragons, and win the higher leverage situations. I’ll also be playing the map one angles I discussed extensively in Thursday’s post.

My Picks:

Map One angles

Kill Total: Map 1 UNDER 23.5 @ -120 (1.2 units)

Time Total: Map 1 OVER 33:00 @ -104 (1.04 units)

Kill Spread (alt): LSB +5.5 kills @ -132 (1.32 units)

Moneyline: Liiv Sandbox +137 (1 unit)

Map Spread: Liiv Sandbox -1.5 maps @ +350 (0.5 units)

 


 

Gen.G -250 (-1.5 maps @ +112)

vs

KT Rolster +202 (+1.5 maps @ -145, -1.5 @ +547)

 

Map Moneyline: GEG -213 / KT +164

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -116 / under -112)

Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -106 / +6.5 @ -122

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 8.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -103 / under -127)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -153 / +120 (map), -173 / +143 (series), +176 / -235 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: KT Rolster +1.5 maps, series moneyline, and -1.5 maps (moderate)

Trends
GEG as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) KT as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 9 4 -388 Matches as Underdogs 3 5 +222
Against Map Spread 3 10 -9 Against Map Spread 6 2 -163
Against Kill Spread 16 18 6.3 Against Kill Spread 9 11 +5
Kill Totals 17 17 23.12 Kill Totals 9 11 23.63
Team Kill Totals 17 17 14.19 Team Kill Totals 9 11 9.63
Game Time Totals 19 15 32.2 Game Time Totals 8 12 32.38
Dragons over 4.5 19 15 Dragons over 4.5 7 13
Towers over 11.5 16 18 Towers over 11.5 7 13

 

League Rank GEG Tale of the Tape KT League Rank
7.0 -121.1 Gold Diff @ 10 min 210.7 4.0
8.0 -498.0 Gold Diff @ 15 min 383.1 3.0
8.0 -862.1 Gold Diff @ 20 min 332.5 6.0
5.4 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 12.5
3.0 6.9 Gold Diff / min first 20 0.3 8.0
1.0 329.5 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -120.6 8.0
2.0 1815.6 Gold /min (GPM) 1769.5 6.0
46.3 Gold / min vs Avg 0.1
1.0 99.1 Gold Diff / min -14.1 7.0
1.0 1.4 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -0.2 7.0
2.0 1632.7 Kill Agnostic GPM 1598.4 8.0
3.0 54.6 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -14.6 7.0
3.0 1944.1 GPM in wins 1948.2 2.0
3.0 331.4 Gold Diff per min in wins 324.7 5.0
3.0 1632.1 GPM in losses 1601.3 6.0
2.0 -232.7 Gold Diff per min in losses -332.9 8.0
100.7 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -12.5
3.0 25.8 Win-Adjusted GPM 29.9 2.0
3.0 26.8 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 20.1 5.0
3.0 55.9 Dragon Control % 49.3 7.0
10.0 37.3 Herald Control % 46.9 7.0
2.0 60.0 Baron Control % 52.6 6.0
11.0 Quality Wins? 11.0
55.0 % of wins as Quality 68.8

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 33.030%
2 1 28.094%
1 2 20.789%
0 2 18.086%
(Series Win): 61.125%

 

Keep an eye out for roster changes in this one. Gen.G might try some different things out with the position they’re in.

This is another situational spot. Gen.G are going to want to get themselves out of this weird funk they’ve been in while KT Rolster are essentially in “must win” mode for their last handful of matches for the season. I’d expect a strong effort from both teams here.

Gen.G are a better team than what we’ve seen but I think their devotion to scaling looks is biting them in the ass more than they care to admit and other teams have figured out to just go tit for tat with them in that aspect and make every game a coin flip or to just go underneath it. We’ve seen this Gen.G team utilize up tempo strategies with this exact lineup with no problem before but they haven’t been doing it nearly as often this season.

I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see Gen.G “get right” here but KT Rolster are going to be throwing the kitchen sink at this match and as I’ve mentioned ad nauseam this week, the LCK is just competitive this season and it’s tough to justify any favorites this large against anybody that isn’t named DRX. I’ll be on the underdogs in this spot as well as the map one angles. There wasn’t anything worth backing in the derivatives for the full series, just map one.

My Picks:

Map One angles

Kill Total: Map 1 UNDER 23.5 @ -112 (1.12 units)

Time Total: Map 1 OVER 33:00 @ -103 (1.03 units)

Kill Spread: Map 1 KT +6.5 kills @ -122 (1.22 units)

Map Spread: KT Rolster +1.5 maps @ -145 (1.45 units)

Moneyline: KT Rolster +202 (0.5 units)

Map Spread: KT -1.5 maps @ +547 (0.1 units)

 


LEC Summer 2021

“Super” Week Eight – Day One

 

Below are the model’s power ratings and actual standings going into the final week of the regular season in the LEC.

LEC After Week 7
Team Power # Rank
ROG 1.321566053 1
FNC 1.051734098 2
MSF 0.6723373466 3
MAD 0.3260317722 4
G2 0.3229366639 5
XL -0.2010369721 6
VIT -0.2722916839 7
SK -0.7468312337 8
AST -1.045888325 9
S04 -1.425311949 10
LEC 2021 Summer Standings
Team Games Str
1 ⁠⁠Rogue 11 – 4 73% 1L
2 ⁠⁠Fnatic 10 – 5 67% 2L
2 ⁠⁠MAD Lions 10 – 5 67% 3W
2 ⁠⁠Misfits Gaming 10 – 5 67% 1L
5 ⁠⁠G2 Esports 9 – 6 60% 2W
6 ⁠⁠Astralis 6 – 9 40% 1W
6 ⁠⁠Excel 6 – 9 40% 2W
8 ⁠⁠SK Gaming 5 – 10 33% 1W
8 ⁠⁠Team Vitality 5 – 10 33% 4L
10 ⁠⁠Schalke 04 3 – 12 20% 7L

(standings from Leaguepedia.com)

 

In general you should familiarize yourself with the playoff scenarios or at least closely follow along with the broadcast for who is in and out. While not every team will mail it in for meaningless games (this narrative is slightly overblown), there is a little bit more of a “looseness” to play, especially if both teams in a given match are eliminated.

The key teams this week are 6th through 9th place. Schalke are already eliminated but the rest are all battling for a single playoff spot. Astralis, Excel, SK Gaming, and Vitality could be eliminated as early as Friday, or even not by fault of their own so pay attention during the games.

During the final week of the Spring regular season we had just 5 out of 15 favorites win on the final week with only four of those covering the kill spread and 9 out of 15 games went OVER the kill total. Generally speaking blanket betting overs tends to be profitable on the last week and you want to get in on it before the market moves on it after seeing Friday’s matches if you’re going to employ this strategy. I’m not going to encourage a full on blind bet across the board but you’ll notice that I’ll be on a lot of kill total overs this weekend especially on Saturday and Sunday.

Other than those angles, I’ll be very selective this weekend. Like the final week in the NFL, it can be a weird beast to “sincerely” bet the final week of the season with so many variables and motivational obstacles. As a rule of thumb, unless you have a very strong angle on something it’s generally best to avoid the final week for things like sides and derivatives unless you’ve got something specific. I’ll discuss the few specific angles I like this weekend in each match but for the most part this will be a light weekend.

 


 

Schalke 04 +156 vs Team Vitality -200

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -123 / under -105)

Kill Spread: +5.5 @ -127 / -5.5 @ -108

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 14.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over +110 / under -143)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: S04 +170 / VIT -220

Model Suggested Play: none

Trends
VIT as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) S04 as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 3 4 -246 Matches as Underdogs 2 7 +192
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 3 4 5.5 Against Kill Spread 3 6 +6
Kill Totals 2 5 25.21 Kill Totals 2 7 26.28
Team Kill Totals 1 6 14.50 Team Kill Totals 2 7 10.17
Game Time Totals 2 5 32.3 Game Time Totals 3 6 32.11
Dragons over 4.5 2 5 Dragons over 4.5 2 7
Towers over 11.5 2 5 Towers over 11.5 8 1

 

League Rank VIT Tale of the Tape S04 League Rank
8.0 -439.5 Gold Diff @ 10 min -405.0 7.0
5.0 -42.2 Gold Diff @ 15 min -2004.6 10.0
7.0 -226.5 Gold Diff @ 20 min -1768.0 10.0
3.4 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -77.2
6.0 -1.0 Gold Diff / min first 20 -113.4 9.0
8.0 -177.0 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -620.7 10.0
6.0 1764.5 Gold /min (GPM) 1656.0 10.0
-22.0 Gold / min vs Avg -130.5
7.0 -61.9 Gold Diff / min -239.9 10.0
6.0 -0.8 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -3.4 10.0
6.0 1590.5 Kill Agnostic GPM 1535.9 9.0
6.0 -22.2 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -141.9 10.0
3.0 1986.1 GPM in wins 1897.3 7.0
1.0 464.8 Gold Diff per min in wins 205.9 9.0
6.0 1653.8 GPM in losses 1595.7 9.0
7.0 -325.3 Gold Diff per min in losses -351.3 8.0
-62.0 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -239.9
3.0 57.5 Win-Adjusted GPM -31.3 7.0
1.0 174.3 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -84.6 9.0
5.0 54.1 Dragon Control % 28.1 10.0
7.0 42.9 Herald Control % 46.7 6.0
7.0 40.0 Baron Control % 27.8 10.0
4.0 Quality Wins? 1.0
80.0 % of wins as Quality 33.3

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

No edge on market but the key here is that Schalke are just playing spoiler while Vitality absolutely need this game. I’m not typically a narrative heavy handicapper as I feel you can get yourself into trouble relying on teams doing what they’re “supposed” to do but I like to think Vitality handle business here. I just don’t like backing this team as a favorite in general. They’ve been VERY shaky and there’s a chance this team is just pre-tilted going into this weekend.

I said I’d be on a lot of overs this weekend, this is a matchup I’d actually lean toward the under on. Schalke have been extremely low combined kills per minute and even though that might change with them being eliminated and having a little fun, I think Vitality will be more on the tense side of things. They’ve been extremely low kill  in wins at 12 KPW (kills per win).  One of the few unders this weekend is my only position here.

My Picks:

Kill Total (alt): UNDER 24.5 @ +113 (1 unit)

 

 


 

Astralis -116 vs SK Gaming -110 

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -122 / under -108)

Kill Spread: -1.5 @ -116 / +1.5 @ -116

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 12.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -114 / under -114)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: AST +104 / SK -133

Model Suggested Play: SK Gaming

Trends
AST as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) SK as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 1 0 -127 Matches as Underdogs 5 10 +225
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 0 1 3.5 Against Kill Spread 9 6 +7
Kill Totals 1 0 26.50 Kill Totals 6 9 26.03
Team Kill Totals 1 0 13.50 Team Kill Totals 9 6 9.57
Game Time Totals 1 0 32.0 Game Time Totals 8 7 31.20
Dragons over 4.5 1 0 Dragons over 4.5 6 9
Towers over 11.5 1 0 Towers over 11.5 8 7

 

 

League Rank AST Tale of the Tape SK League Rank
10.0 -1224.0 Gold Diff @ 10 min -548.1 9.0
9.0 -1922.7 Gold Diff @ 15 min -757.1 8.0
9.0 -1967.8 Gold Diff @ 20 min -902.9 8.0
-69.9 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -61.6
10.0 -129.2 Gold Diff / min first 20 -103.4 8.0
7.0 -116.1 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -307.3 9.0
9.0 1700.4 Gold /min (GPM) 1710.3 8.0
-86.1 Gold / min vs Avg -76.2
9.0 -151.1 Gold Diff / min -150.1 8.0
9.0 -2.1 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -2.1 8.0
10.0 1529.9 Kill Agnostic GPM 1561.4 8.0
9.0 -113.8 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -102.8 8.0
10.0 1847.1 GPM in wins 1907.7 6.0
10.0 159.0 Gold Diff per min in wins 259.6 6.0
8.0 1602.5 GPM in losses 1611.6 7.0
10.0 -357.8 Gold Diff per min in losses -355.0 9.0
-151.1 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -150.2
10.0 -81.4 Win-Adjusted GPM -20.8 6.0
10.0 -131.5 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -30.9 6.0
8.0 38.7 Dragon Control % 49.3 7.0
8.0 40.0 Herald Control % 36.7 9.0
8.0 37.5 Baron Control % 36.8 9.0
0.0 Quality Wins? 2.0
0.0 % of wins as Quality 40.0

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Astralis keep finding ways to win and while I like their very caveman-esque approach to the game by keeping things simple, I just don’t want anybody to be fooled into thinking this team is good even if they make playoffs.  They’ve been improved, they still aren’t good, in fact they’re very very bad.

I was hoping we’d get plus money on either side of this but we aren’t so I’ll just pass on a side. I do like the over 12.5 towers though. Should be a competitive game.

My Picks:

Prop: OVER 12.5 towers @ +114 (1 unit)

 


 

Rogue -556 vs Excel Esports +366

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -119 / under -110)

Kill Spread: -8.5 @ -106 / +8.5 @ -128

Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 8.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -105 / under -123)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: ROG -342 / XL +247

Model Suggested Play: Excel

Trends
ROG as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) XL as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 11 4 -290 Matches as Underdogs 6 6 +209
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 8 7 5.8 Against Kill Spread 10 2 +6
Kill Totals 7 8 26.03 Kill Totals 5 7 25.00
Team Kill Totals 8 7 15.17 Team Kill Totals 8 4 9.50
Game Time Totals 6 9 31.7 Game Time Totals 6 6 31.75
Dragons over 4.5 6 9 Dragons over 4.5 5 7
Towers over 11.5 9 6 Towers over 11.5 6 6

 

League Rank ROG Tale of the Tape XL League Rank
2.0 1100.6 Gold Diff @ 10 min -60.8 6.0
1.0 2993.8 Gold Diff @ 15 min -82.2 6.0
1.0 2432.9 Gold Diff @ 20 min 671.9 6.0
114.8 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -51.9
1.0 190.4 Gold Diff / min first 20 -48.1 7.0
1.0 372.3 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -105.4 6.0
2.0 1909.5 Gold /min (GPM) 1724.3 7.0
123.0 Gold / min vs Avg -62.2
1.0 216.5 Gold Diff / min -54.3 6.0
1.0 3.0 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -0.8 7.0
1.0 1691.2 Kill Agnostic GPM 1562.2 7.0
1.0 140.9 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -45.8 7.0
2.0 1989.5 GPM in wins 1918.2 5.0
2.0 383.1 Gold Diff per min in wins 312.0 4.0
3.0 1689.4 GPM in losses 1595.1 10.0
5.0 -241.7 Gold Diff per min in losses -298.5 6.0
216.4 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -54.4
2.0 61.0 Win-Adjusted GPM -10.3 5.0
2.0 92.6 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 21.5 4.0
6.0 50.8 Dragon Control % 32.3 9.0
1.0 70.0 Herald Control % 56.7 4.0
3.0 60.0 Baron Control % 52.6 5.0
9.0 Quality Wins? 2.0
81.8 % of wins as Quality 33.3

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Rogue have been the best team in the LEC this season yet again but this is a weird spot and a huge number. A win would all but lock up the #1 seed but this could also go a long way for Excel in a tight battle for the final spot.

Excel have been playing a lot better since moving to the new iteration of the lineup. I haven’t filtered the model to look at just the “new” Excel for these numbers but if I do then this is an even bigger edge on market price into the double digits.

Excel are with a play here. Don’t be surprised if Rogue completely smash them but this is a huge number in a bit of a strange motivation spot and Excel have been playing significantly better as icing on the cake.

My Picks:

Kill Spread: Excel +7.5 kills @ -101 (1.01 units)

Moneyline: Excel +366 (0.25 units)

Prop: OVER 12.5 towers @ +235 (1 unit)

 


 

G2 Esports -109 vs MAD Lions -118

 

Kill Total: 27.5 (over -115 / under -114)

Kill Spread: -1.5 @ -114 / +1.5 @ -118

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 12.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -110 / under -118)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: MAD -114 / G2 -113

Model Suggested Play: none

Trends
G2 as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) MAD as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 7 6 -283 Matches as Underdogs 1 2 +47
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 4 9 6.2 Against Kill Spread 1 2 +3
Kill Totals 6 7 27.58 Kill Totals 1 2 27.17
Team Kill Totals 4 9 16.27 Team Kill Totals 0 3 12.17
Game Time Totals 7 6 31.5 Game Time Totals 1 2 32.00
Dragons over 4.5 4 9 Dragons over 4.5 1 2
Towers over 11.5 7 6 Towers over 11.5 2 1

 

League Rank MAD Tale of the Tape G2 League Rank
5.0 32.0 Gold Diff @ 10 min 404.6 3.0
7.0 -406.3 Gold Diff @ 15 min 329.5 4.0
5.0 -607.1 Gold Diff @ 20 min 497.0 4.0
10.8 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 21.1
4.0 44.4 Gold Diff / min first 20 19.7 5.0
3.0 216.3 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 93.6 5.0
5.0 1819.8 Gold /min (GPM) 1847.3 3.0
33.3 Gold / min vs Avg 60.8
5.0 86.7 Gold Diff / min 93.6 4.0
5.0 1.2 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 1.2 4.0
4.0 1634.9 Kill Agnostic GPM 1640.9 3.0
3.0 74.1 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 60.0 4.0
8.0 1892.5 GPM in wins 1964.1 4.0
8.0 236.1 Gold Diff per min in wins 303.5 5.0
4.0 1674.4 GPM in losses 1672.2 5.0
3.0 -212.2 Gold Diff per min in losses -221.3 4.0
86.6 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 93.5
8.0 -36.0 Win-Adjusted GPM 35.6 4.0
8.0 -54.4 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 13.0 5.0
4.0 56.1 Dragon Control % 63.5 1.0
4.0 56.7 Herald Control % 26.9 10.0
3.0 60.0 Baron Control % 62.5 2.0
3.0 Quality Wins? 6.0
30.0 % of wins as Quality 66.7

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

For sides the model makes this dead on the price but I do think G2 have looked like the better team in recent performance.

This is a very high total if you’re looking strictly at the numbers for these two teams but this match doesn’t really mean anything besides seeding for these two and it’s always tough to determine motivations when it comes to that as some teams seem to care and others don’t. G2 historically don’t but in general I like overs between these two teams anyway and we have the added bonus of a potential “for fun” game from one or both.

My Picks:

Kill Total (alt): OVER 28.5 @ +102 (1 unit)

 


 

Fnatic -137 vs Misfits Gaming +108

 

Kill Total: 27.5 (over -122 / under -108)

Kill Spread: -4.5 @ -122 / +4.5 @ -110

Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 11.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -120 / under -108)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: FNC -139 / MSF +110

Model Suggested Play: none

Trends
FNC as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) MSF as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 7 3 -283 Matches as Underdogs 3 4 +71
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 5 5 6.5 Against Kill Spread 4 3 +4
Kill Totals 7 3 27.80 Kill Totals 4 3 26.79
Team Kill Totals 6 4 16.60 Team Kill Totals 3 4 11.93
Game Time Totals 5 5 31.5 Game Time Totals 4 3 32.14
Dragons over 4.5 7 3 Dragons over 4.5 5 2
Towers over 11.5 6 4 Towers over 11.5 4 3

 

 

League Rank FNC Tale of the Tape MSF League Rank
1.0 1113.8 Gold Diff @ 10 min 325.3 4.0
3.0 766.1 Gold Diff @ 15 min 809.3 2.0
2.0 129.3 Gold Diff @ 20 min 555.8 3.0
88.8 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 21.8
2.0 83.4 Gold Diff / min first 20 50.2 3.0
2.0 339.8 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 215.1 4.0
1.0 1912.0 Gold /min (GPM) 1820.9 4.0
125.5 Gold / min vs Avg 34.4
2.0 161.1 Gold Diff / min 99.9 3.0
2.0 2.2 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 1.5 3.0
2.0 1655.1 Kill Agnostic GPM 1622.9 5.0
2.0 107.6 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 44.5 5.0
1.0 1997.8 GPM in wins 1885.0 9.0
3.0 340.9 Gold Diff per min in wins 240.2 7.0
1.0 1740.3 GPM in losses 1692.9 2.0
2.0 -198.6 Gold Diff per min in losses -180.6 1.0
161.1 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 99.9
1.0 69.3 Win-Adjusted GPM -43.6 9.0
3.0 50.4 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -50.3 7.0
2.0 63.2 Dragon Control % 60.0 3.0
3.0 60.7 Herald Control % 63.3 2.0
1.0 73.7 Baron Control % 52.6 5.0
6.0 Quality Wins? 5.0
60.0 % of wins as Quality 50.0

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Again, another tricky one to determine motivations and this isn’t quite as “cheap” a price on Fnatic as I thought when looking at this for the first time a few days ago. I’m just going to stay away on this one. No huge edges even in the derivative markets. If I absolutely had to place a wager it’d be on Fnatic moneyline.

My Picks:

no wagers

 


LCS Summer 2021

Week Nine – Day One

 

 

 

Below are the model’s power ratings and actual standings going into the final week of the regular season in the LEC.

LCS After Week 8
Team Power # Rank
EG 1.168793099 1
100T 0.7508886572 2
C9 0.5228201166 3
TSM 0.4824044357 4
TL 0.4519600348 5
GGS -0.2939758857 6
IMT -0.3034745957 7
DIG -0.4162657581 8
CLG -1.218184695 9
FLY -1.249134559 10

 

LCS 2021 Summer Standings
Team Games Summer Str
1 ⁠⁠100 Thieves 28 – 14 67% 17 – 7 71% 1L
1 ⁠⁠TSM 28 – 14 67% 16 – 8 67% 2W
3 ⁠⁠Cloud9 26 – 16 62% 13 – 11 54% 1L
3 ⁠⁠Evil Geniuses 26 – 16 62% 16 – 8 67% 1W
5 ⁠⁠Team Liquid 25 – 17 60% 13 – 11 54% 1W
6 ⁠⁠Dignitas 21 – 21 50% 10 – 14 42% 2W
7 ⁠⁠Immortals 20 – 22 48% 13 – 11 54% 4W
8 ⁠⁠FlyQuest 13 – 29 31% 7 – 17 29% 5L
9 ⁠⁠Golden Guardians 12 – 30 29% 9 – 15 38% 4L
10 Counter Logic Gaming 11 – 31 26% 6 – 18 25% 2L

(standings from Leaguepedia.com)

Similar to my caution going into the LEC, just keep yourself aware of the playoff pictures, which matches will eliminated which teams, etc. Generally the LCS is a little less willing to “clown around” in the meaningless games but you still see a little bit of it. Kill total overs are the way to go with it especially because of the cushion that the overall low LCS totals afford you.

Remember the LCS has a different playoff format, eight teams get in and there is an upper and lower bracket. Technically nobody is eliminated yet but there are teams that are locked in.

Just like the LEC I’ll be fairly light overall on the final weekend but there are still some nice spots.

 


 

TSM +109 vs 100 Thieves -139

 

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -119 / under -110)

Kill Spread: +3.5 @ -105 / -3.5 @ -123

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 12.5

Time Total: OTB

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: TSM +105 / 100T -134

Model Suggested Play: none

Trends
100T as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) TSM as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 14 7 -306 Matches as Underdogs 4 1 +79
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 10 11 6.1 Against Kill Spread 3 2 +2
Kill Totals 9 12 24.50 Kill Totals 2 3 23.70
Team Kill Totals 8 13 14.60 Team Kill Totals 4 1 10.90
Game Time Totals 10 11 31.8 Game Time Totals 4 1 32.40
Dragons over 4.5 9 12 Dragons over 4.5 3 2
Towers over 11.5 13 8 Towers over 11.5 4 1

 

League Rank 100T Tale of the Tape TSM League Rank
5 243.6 Gold Diff @ 10 min 326.9 4
2 1328.3 Gold Diff @ 15 min 80.0 5
3 930.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min 42.3 5
34.0 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 0.7
2 104.9 Gold Diff / min first 20 27.5 5
2 229.3 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 104.3 5
3 1810.1 Gold /min (GPM) 1773.5 7
19.7 Gold / min vs Avg -17.0
3 135.3 Gold Diff / min 46.5 5
2 1.9 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 0.6 5
4 1621.0 Kill Agnostic GPM 1611.5 6
2 91.0 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 32.1 5
10 1529.9 Opp Kill Agnostic GPM 1579.4 9
8 1901.1 GPM in wins 1860.5 10
5 326.7 Gold Diff per min in wins 201.9 9
9 1589.2 GPM in losses 1618.5 6
7 -329.5 Gold Diff per min in losses -241.3 3
132.8 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 44.0
8 -40.6 Win-Adjusted GPM -81.2 10
5 27.8 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -96.9 9
3 56.9 Dragon Control % 57.5 2
4 53.5 Herald Control % 55.3 3
4 54.8 Baron Control % 67.6 1
12.0 Quality Wins? 6.0
70.6 % of wins as Quality 37.5

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Model makes this roughly on market. 100T “look” like the better team but the numbers don’t necessarily support that across the board. TSM’s strong objective control buoys otherwise underwhelming economy metrics but as we’ve learned across the globe, that’s what matters in the game right now so while I think TSM have been quite lucky overall, there’s something to their game, particularly their vision, that is flummoxing other teams in their setups.

If I had to take a side here it’d be TSM for sure but I’m going to stick to the angle I had last week regarding tower total overs in the LCS.

My Picks:

Prop: OVER 12.5 towers @ +164 (1 unit)

 


 

Evil Geniuses -116 vs Cloud 9 -110

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -116 / under -112)

Kill Spread: -0.5 @ -116 / +0.5 @ -112

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 12.5

Time Total: OTB

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: EG -164 / C9 +127

Model Suggested Play: Evil Geniuses

Trends
EG as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) C9 as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 9 5 -217 Matches as Underdogs 1 1 -1
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 7 7 5.9 Against Kill Spread 1 1 +2
Kill Totals 10 4 26.00 Kill Totals 1 1 24.50
Team Kill Totals 9 5 15.07 Team Kill Totals 1 1 11.50
Game Time Totals 7 7 31.8 Game Time Totals 2 0 32.00
Dragons over 4.5 8 6 Dragons over 4.5 2 0
Towers over 11.5 10 4 Towers over 11.5 1 1

 

League Rank EG Tale of the Tape C9 League Rank
1 1160.5 Gold Diff @ 10 min 602.9 3
1 2031.6 Gold Diff @ 15 min 397.4 4
1 2306.8 Gold Diff @ 20 min 418.1 4
55.9 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 26.1
1 107.6 Gold Diff / min first 20 54.0 3
3 156.3 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 363.0 1
1 1925.6 Gold /min (GPM) 1894.6 2
135.2 Gold / min vs Avg 104.1
1 156.3 Gold Diff / min 136.4 2
1 2.2 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 1.8 3
1 1707.2 Kill Agnostic GPM 1688.7 2
1 105.6 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 82.9 3
7 1601.6 Opp Kill Agnostic GPM 1605.8 6
2 2063.5 GPM in wins 2090.7 1
3 344.5 Gold Diff per min in wins 423.8 1
3 1649.9 GPM in losses 1662.8 2
2 -220.2 Gold Diff per min in losses -203.1 1
153.7 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 133.9
2 121.8 Win-Adjusted GPM 149.1 1
3 45.6 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 124.9 1
4 54.0 Dragon Control % 51.3 5
1 64.6 Herald Control % 47.9 7
2 58.8 Baron Control % 57.6 3
10.0 Quality Wins? 11.0
62.5 % of wins as Quality 84.6

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

I like the EG side of this quite a bit just like the model but I’m putting a little more respect on Cloud 9 who have been playing significantly better in the past couple weeks. I’m going to play the EG side of this anyway and I think they’ve been the best team in the LCS this season but I’m not quite as strong on it as the model is. EG first herald is a great play as well at the price. 70.83% first vs C9’s 33.33%.

My Picks:

Moneyline: Evil Geniuses -116 (1.16 units)

Prop: EG first herald @ -116 (1.16 units)

Prop: OVER 12.5 towers @ +164 (1 unit)

 


 

Immortals +159 vs Team Liquid -204

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -111 / under -118)

Kill Spread: +5.5 @ -120 / -5.5 @ -109

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 13.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -175 / under +134)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: IMT +161 / TL -207

Model Suggested Play: none

Trends
TL as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) IMT as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 13 5 -284 Matches as Underdogs 5 8 +174
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 11 7 6.1 Against Kill Spread 7 6 +6
Kill Totals 10 8 24.50 Kill Totals 7 6 23.88
Team Kill Totals 12 6 14.61 Team Kill Totals 8 5 9.35
Game Time Totals 12 6 31.6 Game Time Totals 9 4 31.62
Dragons over 4.5 9 9 Dragons over 4.5 8 5
Towers over 11.5 9 9 Towers over 11.5 9 4

 

League Rank TL Tale of the Tape IMT League Rank
2 768.4 Gold Diff @ 10 min -228.3 7
3 1228.3 Gold Diff @ 15 min -529.6 8
2 1416.3 Gold Diff @ 20 min -1148.9 8
16.1 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 5.3
4 44.8 Gold Diff / min first 20 -39.3 8
4 141.6 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 78.7 6
4 1807.6 Gold /min (GPM) 1780.1 6
17.1 Gold / min vs Avg -10.4
4 72.1 Gold Diff / min -4.5 6
4 1.0 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -0.1 6
3 1631.9 Kill Agnostic GPM 1599.6 7
4 46.1 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -21.0 6
8 1585.8 Opp Kill Agnostic GPM 1620.6 5
3 1942.1 GPM in wins 1911.3 7
2 363.4 Gold Diff per min in wins 255.9 8
4 1648.5 GPM in losses 1625.1 5
4 -272.1 Gold Diff per min in losses -312.2 5
69.6 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -7.0
3 0.4 Win-Adjusted GPM -30.4 7
2 64.5 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -42.9 8
6 50.9 Dragon Control % 48.7 7
6 48.9 Herald Control % 39.6 9
5 53.3 Baron Control % 50.0 6
10.0 Quality Wins? 6.0
76.9 % of wins as Quality 46.2

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Keep an eye on social media as there’s a chance we get Santorin back for Liquid in this contest. Armao played Academy for them this week.

Again the model is right on the money with this market but I’m a little more bullish toward the Immortals side of things. They looked outstanding last weekend and after a stagnant few weeks where their progression finally looked like it was tapering off, that explosion and boost of confidence was just what hte doctor ordered. Liquid on the other hand have been sort of treading water. I think they’re still a very high floor team in general but it’s tough to really tell how good this team could be. They’ve been a lot more linear than previous iterations, possibly because of the lineup switches.

I’m going to take the dogs. I think this is a big number for how Liquid have played in recent weeks while also being disrespectful to the showing Immortals had last week.

My Picks:

Moneyline: Immortals +159 (1 unit)

Prop: OVER 12.5 towers @ +133 (1 unit)

 


 

Golden Guardians -130 vs FlyQuest -101

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -114 / under -118)

Kill Spread: -0.5 @ -112 / +0.5 @ -119

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 12.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -118 / under -115)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: GGS -207 / FLY +154

Model Suggested Play: Golden Guardians

Trends
GGS as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) FLY as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 0 1 -145 Matches as Underdogs 7 14 +179
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 0 1 2.5 Against Kill Spread 9 12 +6
Kill Totals 1 0 25.50 Kill Totals 9 12 24.83
Team Kill Totals 1 0 12.50 Team Kill Totals 10 11 9.64
Game Time Totals 1 0 32.0 Game Time Totals 8 13 31.67
Dragons over 4.5 1 0 Dragons over 4.5 10 11
Towers over 11.5 1 0 Towers over 11.5 14 7

 

League Rank GGS Tale of the Tape FLY League Rank
8 -779.8 Gold Diff @ 10 min -989.8 10
7 -107.1 Gold Diff @ 15 min -2764.5 10
7 -508.5 Gold Diff @ 20 min -2428.1 10
-3.5 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -62.5
7 -24.5 Gold Diff / min first 20 -170.7 10
7 -84.1 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -274.5 9
5 1793.4 Gold /min (GPM) 1707.5 9
3.0 Gold / min vs Avg -83.0
8 -98.2 Gold Diff / min -176.1 9
8 -1.2 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -2.4 9
5 1614.6 Kill Agnostic GPM 1546.8 9
7 -49.0 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -110.1 9
1 1663.6 Opp Kill Agnostic GPM 1656.9 3
6 1913.6 GPM in wins 1890.6 9
7 273.3 Gold Diff per min in wins 184.2 10
1 1721.3 GPM in losses 1561.0 10
6 -321.2 Gold Diff per min in losses -464.2 10
-100.7 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -178.6
6 -28.1 Win-Adjusted GPM -51.1 9
7 -25.5 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -114.7 10
1 58.7 Dragon Control % 40.0 9
2 63.0 Herald Control % 44.4 8
10 34.4 Baron Control % 50.0 6
3.0 Quality Wins? 2.0
33.3 % of wins as Quality 50.0

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

(Above numbers are for “FlyQuest Academy” only and exclude all previous games with original lineup)

FlyQuest are switching it up and bringing back Palafox and Josedeodo but keeping the other three academy players for this weekend.

I actually agree with the model here. Golden Guardians, for all the memes and hilarious losses, have actually been a decent team in the Summer season and I think this is a cheap price for them. FlyQuest came out the gates when nobody had film on them but here we are just a week or so later and what a world of difference that makes. It’ll be interesting to see what this iteration of the lineup ends up looking like as Palafox and Josedeodo have been tearing up academy. This is a must win for both teams to keep their season alive so should be a great match. I lean Guardians and whichever neutral objective over or time total over you like most, I like towers over.

My Picks:

Moneyline: GGS -130 (1.3 units)

Prop: OVER 12.5 towers @ +123 (1 unit)


 

Dignitas -164 vs CLG +124

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -109 / under -123)

Kill Spread: -3.5 @ -125 / +3.5 @ -108

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 10.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -135 / under +100)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: DIG -183 / CLG +138

Model Suggested Play: none

Trends
DIG as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) CLG as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 4 2 -154 Matches as Underdogs 4 15 +169
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 4 2 2.3 Against Kill Spread 6 13 +6
Kill Totals 5 1 25.67 Kill Totals 8 11 24.66
Team Kill Totals 4 2 13.33 Team Kill Totals 6 13 9.61
Game Time Totals 4 2 31.8 Game Time Totals 11 8 31.79
Dragons over 4.5 3 3 Dragons over 4.5 12 7
Towers over 11.5 4 2 Towers over 11.5 12 7

 

League Rank DIG Tale of the Tape CLG League Rank
6 -66.7 Gold Diff @ 10 min -844.8 9
6 -86.4 Gold Diff @ 15 min -1422.2 9
6 10.6 Gold Diff @ 20 min -2131.4 9
-5.8 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -66.2
6 -23.0 Gold Diff / min first 20 -79.1 9
8 -151.4 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -385.1 10
8 1737.8 Gold /min (GPM) 1674.5 10
-52.7 Gold / min vs Avg -116.0
7 -65.6 Gold Diff / min -177.2 10
7 -0.9 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -2.5 10
8 1554.5 Kill Agnostic GPM 1546.7 10
8 -69.3 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -113.8 10
4 1623.7 Opp Kill Agnostic GPM 1660.5 2
5 1919.8 GPM in wins 1923.5 4
4 327.7 Gold Diff per min in wins 287.0 6
7 1607.8 GPM in losses 1591.5 8
9 -346.5 Gold Diff per min in losses -331.9 8
-68.1 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -179.7
5 -21.9 Win-Adjusted GPM -18.2 4
4 28.8 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -11.8 6
8 46.7 Dragon Control % 39.8 10
5 53.2 Herald Control % 31.9 10
9 37.0 Baron Control % 47.2 8
5.0 Quality Wins? 5.0
50.0 % of wins as Quality 83.3

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Again model is roughly on market for this one. I just want to give props to CLG for the gutsy performance they put in last weekend picking themselves up off the mat after one of the most embarrassing losses I’ve ever witness in the thousands of games of professional League of Legends I’ve watched. That took a lot of heart.

I’d lean Dig here but I’m just going to take the tower over and call it a day, price is just about right.

My Picks:

Prop: OVER 12.5 towers @ +162 (1 unit)


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and you can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Leave a Reply