Thursday, July 1st Recap

 

DRX vs Hanwha Life Esports (Net: -1.5 units)

I figured there was a chance this would happen and whoever showed up better on the day just smoked this matchup and it turns out that was Hanwha. Not too much else to say, Chovy popped off on Nocturne which was nice to see.

Afreeca vs Liiv Sandbox (Net: -3.95 units)

This was a hard fought, back-and-forth series that Afreeca probably should have taken 2-1 if not for a massive throw at the soul point dragon fight on an overzealous engage by Lehends who went way too deep to the point where his team couldn’t follow up. Afreeca dominated this game beginning to end and just botched the close, eventually getting outscaled by the Ezreal/Ryze combination from that thrown fight. Rough way to lose a nice advantaged position.

 

LCK Net Total: -5.45 units

 

Daily Net Total: -5.45 units

 

Hot week. Cold week. Hot week. Cold week. Get me off this rollercoaster.

 


 

LPL Summer 2021

Week Four – Day Three

 

Rogue Warriors +576 (+1.5 maps @ +157, -1.5 @ +1100)

vs

LGD Gaming -1000 (-1.5 maps @ -204)

 

Map Moneyline: RW +386 / LGD -588

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -120 / under -109)

Kill Spread: +9.5 @ -111 / -9.5 @ -116

Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 17.5

Time Total: 29:00 (over -154 / under +119)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  +239 / -326 (map), +395 / -589 (series), -133 / +104 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: Rogue Warriors +1.5 maps

Starters:

RW – 8917, icecoKe, Forge, Betty, QiuQiu

LGD – Fearness, Shad0w, Xiye, Kramer, Mark

Trends
LGD as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) RW as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 2 0 -159 Matches as Underdogs 1 5 +731
Against Map Spread 2 0 +196 Against Map Spread 2 4 +88
Against Kill Spread 4 0 2.5 Against Kill Spread 5 8 +8
Kill Totals 3 1 26.00 Kill Totals 7 6 25.17
Team Kill Totals 4 0 13.50 Team Kill Totals 7 6 8.50
Game Time Totals 2 2 30.5 Game Time Totals 6 7 29.67
Dragons over 4.5 2 2 Dragons over 4.5 5 8
Towers over 11.5 3 1 Towers over 11.5 2 11

 

League Rank LGD Tale of the Tape Rogue Warriors League Rank
9 -177.1 Gold Diff @ 10 min -409.9 15
5 224.7 Gold Diff @ 15 min -937.7 15
8 1062.5 Gold Diff @ 20 min -1012.5 16
3.1 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -93.4
9 -23.1 Gold Diff / min first 20 -140.4 16
8 356.6 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -380.5 16
9 1795.0 Gold /min (GPM) 1635.9 16
17.9 Gold / min vs Avg -141.2
7 22.5 Gold Diff / min -260.5 16
7 0.3 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -3.7 16
11 1589.6 Kill Agnostic GPM 1500.4 16
8 3.1 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -143.4 15
14 1909.0 GPM in wins 1940.6 10
16 261.4 Gold Diff per min in wins 308.2 10
4 1652.5 GPM in losses 1544.4 17
6 -276.3 Gold Diff per min in losses -431.1 17
30.4 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -252.5
14 -32.0 Win-Adjusted GPM -0.4 10
16 -57.1 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -10.4 10
11 46.3 Dragon Control % 30.8 17
11 47.2 Herald Control % 38.5 15
8 56.5 Baron Control % 28.6 15
4.0 Quality Wins? 1.0
40.0 % of wins as Quality 33.3

 (These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 54.000%
2 1 28.636%
1 2 10.333%
0 2 7.030%
(Series Win): 82.637%

I’m going to keep this one really simple. Don’t fall for the Rogue Warriors win hype this is still a fundamentally abysmal team and they happened to get one against another poor team the other day. Don’t get cute. The catch is that LGD are so sloppy with leads that I simply don’t trust them to cover a map spread here so I’m just going to pass on the sides altogether in this one. Nothing great in the derivative markets either.

My Picks:

no wagers

 


 

JD Gaming -909 (-1.5 maps @ -192)

vs

UltraPrime +529 (+1.5 maps @ +149, -1.5 @ +1400)

 

Map Moneyline: JDG -556 / UP +369

Kill Total: 27.5 (over -116 / under -112)

Kill Spread: -9.5 @ -119 / +9.5 @ -109

Team Kill Totals: 18.5 / 8.5

Time Total: 30:00 (over +100 / under -130)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  -215 / +164 (map), -301 / +223 (series), +120 / -153 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: UltraPrime +1.5 maps and series moneyline

Starters:

JDG – Zoom, Kanavi, Yagao, LokeN, LvMao

UP – Zs, H4cker, Xiaocaobao, Smlz, ShiauC

Trends
JDG as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) EST as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 2 2 -1706 Matches as Underdogs 0 4 +481
Against Map Spread 1 3 -191 Against Map Spread 1 3 -39
Against Kill Spread 3 8 9.0 Against Kill Spread 4 5 +8
Kill Totals 6 5 25.50 Kill Totals 8 1 25.25
Team Kill Totals 6 5 16.75 Team Kill Totals 7 2 8.50
Game Time Totals 6 5 29.8 Game Time Totals 5 4 29.75
Dragons over 4.5 8 3 Dragons over 4.5 4 5
Towers over 11.5 5 6 Towers over 11.5 6 3

 

League Rank JDG Tale of the Tape UP League Rank
7 -6.0 Gold Diff @ 10 min -247.8 11
7 -74.4 Gold Diff @ 15 min -808.0 13
5 -512.5 Gold Diff @ 20 min -925.0 14
52.1 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -4.4
2 32.0 Gold Diff / min first 20 -55.7 11
7 399.4 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -105.1 14
5 1806.2 Gold /min (GPM) 1712.1 14
29.1 Gold / min vs Avg -65.0
8 21.1 Gold Diff / min -185.4 14
8 0.3 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -2.6 14
12 1584.5 Kill Agnostic GPM 1549.9 14
7 3.1 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -91.6 14
4 1972.6 GPM in wins 1931.7 11
7 326.2 Gold Diff per min in wins 316.1 8
10 1615.9 GPM in losses 1652.2 5
12 -327.4 Gold Diff per min in losses -322.2 11
29.1 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -177.5
4 31.7 Win-Adjusted GPM -9.3 11
7 7.6 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -2.4 8
7 52.2 Dragon Control % 47.5 8
17 27.6 Herald Control % 39.3 14
7 57.1 Baron Control % 30.0 14
4.0 Quality Wins? 1.0
50.0 % of wins as Quality 33.3

 

 (These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 42.480%
2 1 29.586%
1 2 15.807%
0 2 12.126%
(Series Win): 72.066%

I have my concerns about JDG at the moment because similar to a lot of the big, front-to-back team fighting teams they’re trying to jam a square peg into a round hole. They’ve shown some progression and have adjusted after a weird first two weeks but something just seems “off” about this team at the moment and I can’t put a finger on it.

UltraPrime have been… well far from ultra to say the least but their performance metrics are nowhere near as poor as the rest of the bottom four teams in the LPL (RW, TT, and V5) which suggests to me that they’re probably due for at least a little regression but the question is whether or not this is the spot or not.

I’ve been getting absolutely gutted in the LPL and I’m now as far in the red as I was in the green for the entire Spring split which has been a brutal start. My biggest mistakes in this time have been continuing to back underdogs trusting that they’ll be at least remotely competitive and that once again just hasn’t been the case with the bottom of the table teams but it’s really REALLY difficult to ignore JDG’s shortcomings along with UP’s potential for regression here.

I wanted to back UP on the kill spread as JDG have been absolutely abysmal at covering as favorites despite their Average margin of victory (AMOV) being a ridiculous 11.57 (off the back of some near 20 kill victories) but I actually think the best way to attack this match is the kill total overs. combined, more than 62% of the games these two have played have gone over the 27.5 mark and almost 70% over the 26.5 mark (71.4% for both on UP). My projections also make this total a sky high 29.553. It’s a big total but I do think we’ll get there. UP tend to be very bloody and aggressive even in losses.

 

My Picks:

Kill Total (alt): Map 1 OVER 26.5 @ -143 (1 unit)

Kill Total (alt): Map 2 OVER 26.5 @ -143 (1 unit)

 

 


 

LCK Summer 2021

Week Four – Day Three

 

Nongshim RedForce +165 (+1.5 maps @ -204, -1.5 @ +432)

vs

DAMWON Kia Gaming -200 (-1.5 maps @ +150, +1.5 @ -769)

 

Map Moneyline: NS +136 / DWG -182

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -106 / under -128)

Kill Spread: +4.5 @ -116  / -4.5 @ -116

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 13.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -127 / under -106)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  +144 / -194 (map), +196 / -240 (series), -181 / +134 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: DAMWON series moneyline (light)

 

Trends
DWG as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) NS as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 4 2 -891 Matches as Underdogs 1 1 +280
Against Map Spread 2 4 -130 Against Map Spread 2 0 -126
Against Kill Spread 6 9 7.3 Against Kill Spread 3 2 +7
Kill Totals 8 7 23.17 Kill Totals 4 1 22.00
Team Kill Totals 8 7 14.67 Team Kill Totals 3 2 8.00
Game Time Totals 11 4 30.5 Game Time Totals 5 0 32.00
Dragons over 4.5 8 7 Dragons over 4.5 5 0
Towers over 11.5 8 7 Towers over 11.5 4 1

 

League Rank DWG Tale of the Tape NS League Rank
6.0 -28.0 Gold Diff @ 10 min -449.7 8.0
4.0 326.6 Gold Diff @ 15 min -650.0 9.0
6.0 568.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min -98.9 8.0
-5.3 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -22.2
6.0 -3.2 Gold Diff / min first 20 -38.8 8.0
3.0 36.5 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -0.2 8.0
4.0 1782.6 Gold /min (GPM) 1744.7 8.0
19.0 Gold / min vs Avg -18.9
4.0 36.5 Gold Diff / min -15.2 7.0
4.0 0.5 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -0.2 7.0
6.0 1609.4 Kill Agnostic GPM 1603.3 7.0
3.0 27.6 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -16.2 8.0
6.0 1920.4 GPM in wins 1853.7 9.0
7.0 306.9 Gold Diff per min in wins 210.1 9.0
9.0 1575.9 GPM in losses 1604.5 6.0
10.0 -369.1 Gold Diff per min in losses -304.8 4.0
38.9 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -12.8
6.0 14.7 Win-Adjusted GPM -52.0 9.0
7.0 16.6 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -80.2 9.0
5.0 50.7 Dragon Control % 46.8 8.0
4.0 57.1 Herald Control % 59.4 3.0
1.0 73.7 Baron Control % 50.0 6.0
5.0 Quality Wins? 5.0
55.6 % of wins as Quality 62.5

 (These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 39.115%
2 1 29.303%
1 2 17.551%
0 2 14.031%
(Series Win): 68.418%

DAMWON’s descent into madness doesn’t seem to have an end and there’s a chance we’re just looking at the new DAMWON roster the more and more this continues. The thing is, I wouldn’t put it passed Kkoma to just be resting and or punishing a player for poor performance but the question remains WHAT IS GOING ON with this team…

The thing with DAMWON is that in part due to their roster shuffling they’ve been very inconsistent on a game-to-game basis. Sometimes they look just as good as they used to and the individual prowess comes to the forefront, other times it’s just like a sloppy solo queue game. The numbers from the Tale of the Tape above weight recent performance, specifically their 8 most recent games rather heavily and just looking at that this is still a pretty decent team even with multiple players in off-roles.

Nongshim have been performing steadily well with their only losses on the season in their most recent match to Brion (0-2) and a match loss to Gen.G (1-2). Nongshim aren’t particularly great in any performance metric, in fact they’re below the league average in most. Their overall early game rating is the third worst in the league and is WELL BELOW the league average but for the most part they’re right around average across the rest of the board. It’s safe to say, Nongshim have been running at least a little well and I think they’re strong regression candidates if they don’t improve across the board. That said… they’re getting it done, in large part due to some heroic individual performances at timely moments.

I think a lot of people are going to want to back Nongshim based on what they’ve seen recently in combination with the question marks revolving around DAMWON’s lineup but Nongshim rely way too much on individual outplays and that’s not where you want to be against the raw individual talent of DAMWON and yes that includes players in their secondary roles. There isn’t a single category I measure and factor into the model that Nongshim have a true advantage in over DAMWON even adjusting for just the non-core lineup only. I think this is a cheap price on DAMWON and I’ll be backing them here more aggressively than the model suggests. There’s also a chance we see the normal lineup in which case the line might end up closer to -250 or greater upon the announcement. I like this enough even with the non-core lineup we’ve been seeing at the current number that anything else is gravy.

My Picks:

Moneyline: DAMWON -200 (4 units)

Map Spread: DAMWON -1.5 maps @ +150 (1 unit)

 


 

Fredit Brion +127 (+1.5 maps @ -256, -1.5 @ +342)

vs

KT Rolster -152 (-1.5 maps @ +193, +1.5 @ -500)

 

Map Moneyline: BRO +114 / KT -145

Kill Total: 22.5 (over -106 / under -122)

Kill Spread: +4.5 @ -111 / -4.5 @ -116

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 12.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over +102 / under -132)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  -125 / -101 (map), -128 / +107 (series), -306 / +226 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: Brion series moneyline and -1.5 maps

Trends
KT as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) BRO as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 1 2 -153 Matches as Underdogs 3 4 +311
Against Map Spread 1 2 +206 Against Map Spread 6 1 -46
Against Kill Spread 4 4 2.2 Against Kill Spread 10 8 +6
Kill Totals 6 2 23.83 Kill Totals 3 15 22.93
Team Kill Totals 4 4 12.17 Team Kill Totals 9 9 8.50
Game Time Totals 2 6 33.0 Game Time Totals 9 9 32.14
Dragons over 4.5 3 5 Dragons over 4.5 13 5
Towers over 11.5 3 5 Towers over 11.5 7 11

 

League Rank KT Tale of the Tape BRO League Rank
3.0 456.7 Gold Diff @ 10 min -154.3 7.0
7.0 -139.9 Gold Diff @ 15 min 289.3 4.0
7.0 -228.8 Gold Diff @ 20 min 574.6 6.0
9.8 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -21.5
5.0 9.3 Gold Diff / min first 20 -5.8 7.0
6.0 -57.1 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -59.6 8.0
5.0 1760.6 Gold /min (GPM) 1731.1 8.0
0.3 Gold / min vs Avg -29.3
5.0 -4.4 Gold Diff / min -16.6 7.0
5.0 -0.1 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -0.3 7.0
8.0 1584.2 Kill Agnostic GPM 1603.9 6.0
5.0 -15.2 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -17.5 8.0
1.0 1942.1 GPM in wins 1913.1 6.0
2.0 330.2 Gold Diff per min in wins 299.7 7.0
7.0 1597.3 GPM in losses 1549.0 10.0
5.0 -305.5 Gold Diff per min in losses -332.9 8.0
3.6 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -8.7
1.0 40.3 Win-Adjusted GPM 11.4 6.0
2.0 46.8 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 16.4 7.0
7.0 47.0 Dragon Control % 64.7 1.0
5.0 50.0 Herald Control % 45.7 6.0
5.0 50.0 Baron Control % 34.8 8.0
7.0 Quality Wins? 5.0
77.8 % of wins as Quality 62.5

 (These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
0 2 27.658%
1 2 26.225%
2 1 23.641%
2 0 22.476%
(Series Win): 46.117%

So this one takes a little bit of unpacking because I don’t entirely agree with the model. The eco/objective model grades on a scaling comparison to league average via zscore across two dozen categories so it can sometimes be skewed when you have extreme outliers like Brion’s dragon control for instance and boost their average higher than you’d think.

Here’s the thing, Brion are actually way WAY better than the market thinks and I think this matchup is much closer than the majority interpretation which is “slam dunk KT Rolster.” I do think KT Rolster are the side here but for specific reasons. I personally think playing through herald gold snowballing is the best way to play the game right now and KT have been very good at that this season. They frequently jump out to sizeable gold leads in the first ten minutes and are able to get them home a majority of the time when they get them (see Quality Wins above).

It’s a little weird but I actually think this is Brion or pass. These two teams are fairly evenly matched but stylistically very different and while I prefer KT’s approach to the game and their players overall, it’s not enough to warrant or justify as position on them here.

My favorite play here is actually the tower total under AND the Brion first dragon on map one specifically where it legitimately looks like a book error (flipped in game two).

 

My Picks:

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -222 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -250 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 3 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -250 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 1 Brion first dragon @ +110 (1 unit)*

 

 


 

LEC Summer 2021

Week Four – Day One

Power Ratings through three weeks

After Week 3
Team Power # Rank
MSF 1.090316372 1
FNC 1.011349277 2
ROG 0.7121329196 3
MAD 0.5189592506 4
VIT 0.4013096204 5
G2 -0.05703375869 6
AST -0.7787375417 7
SK -0.8978645419 8
XL -0.9432670096 9
S04 -1.091948442 10

 


Team Vitality -370 vs Astralis +265

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -119 / under -109)

Kill Spread: -7.5 @ -118 / +7.5 @ -115

Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -104 / under -125)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  VIT -299 / AST +221

Model Suggested Play: None (miniscule on Astralis)

League Rank VIT Tale of the Tape AST League Rank
1.0 1330.9 Gold Diff @ 10 min -840.9 9.0
5.0 489.3 Gold Diff @ 15 min -1701.1 9.0
3.0 126.2 Gold Diff @ 20 min -1752.9 9.0
26.6 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -84.8
5.0 61.1 Gold Diff / min first 20 -136.9 8.0
3.0 374.7 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -172.4 7.0
4.0 1825.7 Gold /min (GPM) 1663.5 7.0
52.0 Gold / min vs Avg -110.3
4.0 126.2 Gold Diff / min -171.3 7.0
4.0 1.9 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -2.4 7.0
4.0 1633.1 Kill Agnostic GPM 1513.2 9.0
3.0 93.6 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -132.3 8.0
2.0 1967.1 GPM in wins 1823.5 9.0
1.0 470.0 Gold Diff per min in wins 197.7 9.0
5.0 1637.3 GPM in losses 1599.5 7.0
7.0 -332.3 Gold Diff per min in losses -318.9 6.0
126.2 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -171.3
2.0 54.3 Win-Adjusted GPM -89.3 9.0
1.0 180.5 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -91.8 9.0
10.0 0.0 Dragon Control % 40.0 6.0
7.0 46.2 Herald Control % 42.9 8.0
3.0 62.5 Baron Control % 36.4 7.0
3.0 Quality Wins? 0.0
300.0 % of wins as Quality 0.0

 (These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

We talked extensively about whether or not Vitality is legitimately good or if they’re just going to be this feast or famine type of team. I wouldn’t be surprised at either but for the time being I’m staying out of the way of these guys. Astralis were due for regression and that has begun. They’re going to be a scrappy underdog at times capable of winning skirmishes and cheesing drafts with creative picks but their fundamentals are severely lacking as you can tell from the economy numbers.

My favorite play in this contest is actually the under kill total. Astralis have an average margin of defeat of just 6.8 kills this season so I’m not exactly thrilled to back Vitality or really any favorites on the kill spread unless it’s a very cheap price this season. My total model projects a 24.174 kill total in this one with a fairly low volatility rating compared to league average. Only ~43% of games have gone over the 24.5 alternate total much less the 25.5 they’ve floated for us. There’s a chance this gets wild but I think it’ll more than likely be a lopsided Vitality stomp.

My Picks:

Kill Total (alt): UNDER 24.5 @ +111 (1 unit)

Prop: UNDER 12.5 towers @ -303 (1 unit)

 

 


 

SK Gaming +388 vs Rogue -588

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -108 / under -120)

Kill Spread: +9.5 @ -128 / -9.5 @ -106

Team Kill Totals: 7.5 / 16.5

Time Total: 30:00 (over -122 / under -105)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  SK +315 / ROG -450

Model Suggested Play: None (miniscule SK)

League Rank ROG Tale of the Tape SK League Rank
4.0 974.0 Gold Diff @ 10 min -613.0 7.0
1.0 2517.4 Gold Diff @ 15 min -1262.3 7.0
1.0 2704.1 Gold Diff @ 20 min -910.9 7.0
132.4 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -43.4
1.0 187.0 Gold Diff / min first 20 -73.6 7.0
4.0 114.5 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -513.8 9.0
3.0 1889.9 Gold /min (GPM) 1663.1 8.0
116.1 Gold / min vs Avg -110.7
3.0 143.4 Gold Diff / min -209.0 9.0
3.0 2.1 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -2.9 8.0
1.0 1685.0 Kill Agnostic GPM 1527.6 8.0
6.0 100.3 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -142.3 10.0
4.0 1948.4 GPM in wins 1906.9 7.0
6.0 297.1 Gold Diff per min in wins 313.1 3.0
3.0 1743.7 GPM in losses 1622.4 6.0
4.0 -240.6 Gold Diff per min in losses -296.0 5.0
143.4 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -209.0
4.0 35.6 Win-Adjusted GPM -5.9 7.0
6.0 7.6 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 23.6 3.0
5.0 48.4 Dragon Control % 40.0 6.0
3.0 57.1 Herald Control % 35.7 9.0
6.0 44.4 Baron Control % 22.2 10.0
3.0 Quality Wins? 0.0
50.0 % of wins as Quality 0.0

 (These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Despite experimenting with new approaches and compositions quite a bit, Rogue remain remarkably fundamentally sound with one of the best kill agnostic economies not just in the LEC, but the world. They’re actually 37 gold per minute higher this season despite agnostic economies being slightly lower unanimously across the board due to the metagame. They’ve also increased their differential from 79.3 gold per minute to over 100 gold per minute. This tells us that Rogue are creating repeatable advantages from the map itself that aren’t as reliant on kill variance.

SK are quite the opposite and currently boast one of the worst kill agnostic differentials in the five major regions. I typically like underdogs but qualitatively Rogue are in a different stratosphere to this current SK Gaming team who look like they’re well on their way to a bottom two finish in the LEC.

Rogue have an average margin of victory of 7.2 kills to SK’s average margin of defeat of 6.5 kills this season making this 9.5 kill spread right on the money. There aren’t a lot of great ways to play the favorites in this one as their team total is very high. The strongest EV play that the model gave was the OVER 30:00 @ -122 but I think there’s a very real chance that Rogue just completely steamroll this game.

 

My Picks:

Prop: UNDER 12.5 towers @ -256 (1 unit)

 


 

Misfits -104 vs MAD Lions -122

 

Kill Total: 27.5 (over -123 / under -105)

Kill Spread: +1.5 @ -112 / -1.5 @ -119

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 14.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -118 / under -111)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  MSF -157 / MAD +123

Model Suggested Play: Misfits moneyline

League Rank MAD Tale of the Tape MSF League Rank
5.0 251.4 Gold Diff @ 10 min 195.4 6.0
4.0 550.9 Gold Diff @ 15 min 1581.6 2.0
5.0 752.1 Gold Diff @ 20 min 1508.0 2.0
49.5 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 51.6
4.0 73.3 Gold Diff / min first 20 101.0 3.0
5.0 124.7 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 579.4 1.0
5.0 1823.9 Gold /min (GPM) 1899.6 2.0
50.2 Gold / min vs Avg 125.8
5.0 85.2 Gold Diff / min 255.2 1.0
5.0 1.2 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 3.7 1.0
5.0 1631.7 Kill Agnostic GPM 1657.7 3.0
4.0 91.1 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 124.8 1.0
5.0 1930.6 GPM in wins 1911.6 6.0
5.0 299.0 Gold Diff per min in wins 311.6 4.0
4.0 1681.7 GPM in losses 1827.4 1.0
3.0 -200.0 Gold Diff per min in losses -83.5 1.0
85.2 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 255.2
5.0 17.8 Win-Adjusted GPM -1.2 6.0
5.0 9.5 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 22.1 4.0
3.0 55.2 Dragon Control % 73.5 1.0
1.0 71.4 Herald Control % 57.1 3.0
2.0 77.8 Baron Control % 62.5 3.0
1.0 Quality Wins? 3.0
25.0 % of wins as Quality 50.0

 (These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

I’m going to be with the model and backing Misfits here. This team is legitimately good and extremely well-suited for the current metagame. I suspect they’ll remain so in the 11.13 meta as well even if things change quite a bit. MAD Lions haven’t been quite as sharp as we’ve seen them in 2021 and they’re more than capable of turning it on at any moment but this is a streaky team and they’ve been a little cold of late which is just icing on the cake here.

The model flagged the under kill total here specifically the 26.5 at +115 as a double digit edge on the market price despite projecting a 27.911 kill game, frequencies suggest this will either go way over this total or, a majority of the time, go under.

My Picks:

Moneyline: Misfits -104 (1.04 units)

Kill Total (alt): UNDER 26.5 @ +115 (0.5 units)

Prop: UNDER 12.5 towers @ -159 (1 unit)

 


 

G2 Esports -556 vs Excel Esports +367

 

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -112 / under -116)

Kill Spread: -9.5 @ -118 / +9.5 @ -115

Team Kill Totals: 17.5 / 7.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over +112 / under -145)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  G2 -215 / XL +163

Model Suggested Play: Excel moneyline

League Rank G2 Tale of the Tape XL League Rank
3.0 1006.0 Gold Diff @ 10 min -633.7 8.0
6.0 268.8 Gold Diff @ 15 min -2203.2 10.0
6.0 352.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min -2113.3 10.0
20.2 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -129.8
6.0 -18.9 Gold Diff / min first 20 -146.0 10.0
6.0 16.5 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -600.0 10.0
6.0 1806.8 Gold /min (GPM) 1600.8 10.0
33.0 Gold / min vs Avg -173.0
6.0 16.5 Gold Diff / min -238.9 10.0
6.0 0.1 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -3.5 10.0
6.0 1596.3 Kill Agnostic GPM 1490.1 10.0
5.0 12.9 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -165.8 9.0
1.0 1975.4 GPM in wins 1808.0 10.0
7.0 290.7 Gold Diff per min in wins 179.1 10.0
8.0 1581.9 GPM in losses 1517.9 10.0
8.0 -349.1 Gold Diff per min in losses -406.1 10.0
16.5 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -238.9
1.0 62.6 Win-Adjusted GPM -104.8 10.0
7.0 1.2 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -110.4 10.0
3.0 55.2 Dragon Control % 36.7 8.0
10.0 16.7 Herald Control % 50.0 6.0
5.0 50.0 Baron Control % 33.3 8.0
2.0 Quality Wins? 0.0
50.0 % of wins as Quality 0.0

 (These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

This is another match that we discussed, primarily about G2, on the podcast this week. It’s early in the season but I think there’s cause to be legitimately concerned about G2’s trajectory relative to expectation and I think for those that have not made an adjustment to the “new reality” you probably need to start considering it. At first a lot of us, myself included, figured this would be a great metagame for this roster but that simply hasn’t been the case. This team is stuck in the past and unfortunately for them, these strategies are not only dated but their strongest asset which was leveraging transitional plays better than almost anyone, has become a weakness for them. The lanes on G2 are still doing their jobs but that dominant transition into mid game that they were known for has been absent.

I think G2 are going to be slightly better than this but I was preaching before the season started that this is likely just who they are now. I don’t think we’ll be seeing them compete for a title without some drastic improvement but that doesn’t mean that they won’t be in that top four conversation and remain a good team.

Excel have been similar to Astralis, scrappy and able to take advantage of power picks but fundamentally lacking that economic foundation. Economy matters less in the current state of things than it does in more scaling focused metagames but it still matters quite a bit and Excel are currently one of the worst in the world in this regard.

I have my questions about G2 right now and my initial instinct on this one was to hold my nose and back Excel on the kill spread but I’m going to trust the model’s suggestion of playing the favorites through the kill total under here.

My Picks:

Kill Total: UNDER 26.5 @ -116 (1.16 units)

 

 


 

FC Schalke 04 +242 vs Fnatic -333

 

Kill Total: 27.5 (over -106 / under -122)

Kill Spread: +8.5 @ -130 / -8.5 @ -104

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 16.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over +102 / under -132)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  S04 +463 / FNC -760

Model Suggested Play: Fnatic moneyline

League Rank FNC Tale of the Tape S04 League Rank
2.0 1281.3 Gold Diff @ 10 min -847.1 10.0
3.0 776.6 Gold Diff @ 15 min -1619.4 8.0
4.0 197.4 Gold Diff @ 20 min -1515.6 8.0
70.2 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -92.6
2.0 54.1 Gold Diff / min first 20 -116.3 9.0
2.0 488.4 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -407.7 8.0
1.0 1914.6 Gold /min (GPM) 1649.9 9.0
140.8 Gold / min vs Avg -123.9
2.0 197.4 Gold Diff / min -204.7 8.0
2.0 2.8 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -3.0 9.0
2.0 1660.9 Kill Agnostic GPM 1530.6 7.0
2.0 127.6 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -110.0 7.0
3.0 1951.4 GPM in wins 1904.9 8.0
2.0 327.7 Gold Diff per min in wins 209.0 8.0
2.0 1822.4 GPM in losses 1547.9 9.0
2.0 -128.2 Gold Diff per min in losses -370.2 9.0
197.4 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -204.7
3.0 38.7 Win-Adjusted GPM -7.9 8.0
2.0 38.2 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -80.5 8.0
2.0 68.8 Dragon Control % 17.9 9.0
2.0 69.2 Herald Control % 57.1 3.0
1.0 80.0 Baron Control % 33.3 8.0
3.0 Quality Wins? 1.0
60.0 % of wins as Quality 50.0

 (These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

It’s incredible how much stronger a team can look when the communication and philosophy are in alignment. Fnatic went from a seemingly random, hard spiking team to one of the most disciplined, fundamentally sound opening 15 minute squads in the world in one offseason with a new top laner and a new jungler. Bwipo has been fantastic and I’d argue the best jungler in the league through three weeks which is impressive. This team is firing on all cylinders right now and I legitimately think their rating here is accurate. Fnatic and Misfits are ahead of the pack after three weeks.

We cannot say the same for Schalke although it should be noted that their performance metrics are stronger than that of the other “bottom dwelling” teams like Excel, Astralis, and SK Gaming in some aspects, the ones that matter most to me personally. Brokenblade has continued to play well and has likely earned himself a spot next season as he deserves to be on a better squad than this. He’s been one of the strongest top laners in the LEC this season despite his team struggling around him.

I figured I’d mention that Schalke are officially selling their spot but I don’t think this really has as big an effect on motivation and such as people think.

Fnatic are going to smash this game. I’ll be taking them on the kill spread as well as the kill total under.

My Picks:

Kill Spread: Fnatic -8.5 kills @ -104 (1.04 units)

Kill Total (alt): UNDER 26.5 @ -103 (1.03 units)

 


 

LCS Summer 2021

Week Five – Day One

 

LCS Power Ratings after four weeks

After Week 4
Team Power # Rank
100T 1.340080015 1
TL 0.5153171442 2
EG 0.4919919115 3
C9 0.398043591 4
IMT 0.1915868943 5
TSM 0.1793300672 6
CLG -0.3026158126 7
GGS -0.5835307774 8
DIG -1.040798848 9
FLY -1.151138425 10

I don’t think these model power ratings are particularly surprising to anyone. The adjusted metrics tell a bit of a different story as I’ll discuss on a team-by-team basis as we get to them below.

A few betting trends:

LCS Kill Spread Winner? Kill Total Winner? Time Total Winner? FAV Team Total UND Team Total Dragons 4.5 Winner? Towers 11.5 Winner?
Over / Fav 27 29 30 29 30 29 28
Under / Dog 33 31 30 31 30 31 32
Average 5.22 24.83 31.70 14.33 9.93
Total Games
60

Favorites are 38 – 22 outright

None of these are particularly surprising. The derivative markets for the LCS have actually been dead on for the most part. Very little adjusting had to be done. That might change with 11.13 but I’m going to give it a week to find out if teams are actually embracing new looks or if this will be a slower adjustment.

 


 

Team Liquid +122 vs 100 Thieves -156

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -105 / under -123)

Kill Spread: +3.5 @ -110 / -3.5 @ -118

Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 13.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -128 / under -101)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  TL +136 / 100T -174

Model Suggested Play: none

League Rank 100T Tale of the Tape TL League Rank
1 985.4 Gold Diff @ 10 min 182.2 4
1 2147.4 Gold Diff @ 15 min -76.7 4
1 1957.3 Gold Diff @ 20 min 47.8 4
83.7 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -0.1
1 148.3 Gold Diff / min first 20 18.0 4
1 429.9 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 258.6 3
3 1831.1 Gold /min (GPM) 1818.3 4
49.7 Gold / min vs Avg 36.9
1 214.4 Gold Diff / min 109.1 2
1 3.0 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 1.6 2
6 1613.7 Kill Agnostic GPM 1620.7 4
1 123.6 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 50.9 2
10 1490.1 Opp Kill Agnostic GPM 1569.9 8
7 1890.1 GPM in wins 1924.0 4
2 343.2 Gold Diff per min in wins 337.7 4
10 1535.9 GPM in losses 1670.3 2
10 -429.3 Gold Diff per min in losses -210.9 1
226.4 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 121.1
7 -52.6 Win-Adjusted GPM -18.8 4
2 56.7 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 51.3 4
2 57.8 Dragon Control % 58.3 1
7 42.9 Herald Control % 36.4 10
3 66.7 Baron Control % 66.7 3
7.0 Quality Wins? 5.0
70.0 % of wins as Quality 71.4

 

 (These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Don’t underestimate this Liquid team’s veteran in-game leadership and quality players. They’ll likely still be a top four team even with all the shenanigans happening behind the scenes. It doesn’t appear like Alphari is returning this week as he mentioned joining Doublelift’s co-stream today.

The model thinks this is an over-priced but roughly fair evaluation of this matchup but 100 Thieves potent early game sticks out like a sore thumb in the tale of the tape above. In terms of raw economy measures these teams are fairly even but when you consider differentials and other adjustments you find that 100 Thieves are simply creating bigger margins than Liquid are in general and Liquid are also fairly adept at this. Having a great economy only matters as much as it is greater than your opponent and 100 Thieves have been choking other teams out quite effectively.

I do think that eventually 100 Thieves will cool off a bit and that Liquid’s woes might catch up to them but in this specific spot I’m going to pass. If I had to take a position it’d be 100 Thieves on the kill spread.

My Picks:

no wagers

 


FlyQuest +191 vs Evil Geniuses -250

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -122 / under -106)

Kill Spread: +7.5 @ -125 / -7.5 @ -103

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 15.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over +110 / under -143)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  FLY +304 / EG -427

Model Suggested Play: Evil Geniuses moneyline

League Rank EG Tale of the Tape FLY League Rank
3 305.3 Gold Diff @ 10 min -142.2 6
2 1238.5 Gold Diff @ 15 min -418.3 9
2 719.8 Gold Diff @ 20 min -98.4 7
21.2 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -50.1
2 81.4 Gold Diff / min first 20 -81.9 10
6 42.5 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -557.2 10
1 1918.0 Gold /min (GPM) 1628.9 10
136.6 Gold / min vs Avg -152.5
5 42.5 Gold Diff / min -222.7 10
5 0.7 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -3.2 10
1 1707.2 Kill Agnostic GPM 1504.5 10
6 20.7 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -124.7 9
2 1686.5 Opp Kill Agnostic GPM 1629.2 5
1 2204.9 GPM in wins 1808.6 10
7 299.6 Gold Diff per min in wins 153.3 10
4 1631.1 GPM in losses 1569.0 8
2 -214.7 Gold Diff per min in losses -348.0 7
54.4 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -210.8
1 262.2 Win-Adjusted GPM -134.1 10
7 13.1 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -133.2 10
6 47.5 Dragon Control % 35.6 10
1 62.5 Herald Control % 42.9 7
7 33.3 Baron Control % 31.3 8
4.0 Quality Wins? 2.0
66.7 % of wins as Quality 66.7

 

 (These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

 

I don’t particularly think it makes a difference which FlyQuest lineup we see, I’m backing EG here and in all of their matches this weekend. As frustrating as this team can be at times when they lose to themselves, the fact of the matter is that they’re playing very good League of Legends right now. They lead the league in kill agnostic gold per minute, which is honestly hilarious because typically the more volatile, kill dependent teams struggle in this but they’re absolutely killing it which means that perhaps they’re turning over a new leaf (or catching a ton of side wave gold).

Good team vs bad team and this is honestly a fairly cheap price. The kill spread is an option here as it’s within the AMOV/AMOD differential range but I’m just going to back them on the moneyline.

 

My Picks:

Moneyline: Evil Geniuses -250 (2.5 units)

 


Team Solo Mid -286 vs Dignitas +211

 

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -118 / under -110)

Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -110 / +6.5 @ -118

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 8.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over +131 / under -172)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  TSM -288 / DIG +212

Model Suggested Play: none

League Rank TSM Tale of the Tape DIG League Rank
7 -173.0 Gold Diff @ 10 min -481.8 9
5 -237.9 Gold Diff @ 15 min -352.8 8
5 55.3 Gold Diff @ 20 min -136.6 8
-25.5 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -11.6
5 -8.2 Gold Diff / min first 20 -55.3 8
5 134.4 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -410.7 9
7 1747.7 Gold /min (GPM) 1682.1 9
-33.7 Gold / min vs Avg -99.3
6 40.2 Gold Diff / min -170.1 8
6 0.6 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -2.4 8
7 1588.4 Kill Agnostic GPM 1519.2 9
5 25.1 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -125.0 10
9 1563.4 Opp Kill Agnostic GPM 1644.2 3
9 1821.0 GPM in wins 1920.0 5
9 168.8 Gold Diff per min in wins 330.0 5
9 1559.4 GPM in losses 1595.6 6
6 -305.3 Gold Diff per min in losses -352.0 8
52.2 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -158.2
9 -121.8 Win-Adjusted GPM -22.7 5
9 -117.6 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 43.6 5
5 51.8 Dragon Control % 41.5 9
2 60.9 Herald Control % 41.4 9
1 80.0 Baron Control % 25.0 10
2.0 Quality Wins? 2.0
22.2 % of wins as Quality 50.0

 

 (These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

It’s one thing to point to baron control as the highest correlation stat to winning and clearly TSM are doing something right to come up with this ridiculous control rate but it also feels like it’s potentially a bit of an anomaly so I don’t want to put too much credence on TSM’s overall obejctive rating either.

I mentioned on the podcast this week that I think TSM are almost definitely better than their performance metrics while simultaneously being due for regression because their level of performance simply doesn’t warrant this many victories. They won a few games that probably shouldn’t have based on their performance which also throws a wrench in things. That’s a very weird space to be in but it’s a good reason why it’s critical to blend art and science with this sort of thing.

With that in mind, I’m really not a fan of this Dignitas team and while the model makes this a “fair” price (essentially the same as market), I’d actually lean toward the TSM side of things. The problem is that there isn’t really a +EV angle through which to do that so I’m just going to pass on this contest. If you have a dire need to get down on this I think TSM first to 5 kills is probably your best option.

My Picks:

no wagers

 


 

Cloud 9 -217 vs Immortals +166

 

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -122 / under -105)

Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -105 / +5.5 @ -122

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over +114 / under -149)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  C9 -133 / IMT +104

Model Suggested Play: Immortals moneyline

League Rank C9 Tale of the Tape IMT League Rank
2 611.7 Gold Diff @ 10 min -385.4 8
3 704.5 Gold Diff @ 15 min -775.5 10
3 556.1 Gold Diff @ 20 min -1196.1 9
11.6 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 31.6
3 59.5 Gold Diff / min first 20 -20.1 6
4 210.4 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 358.1 2
2 1874.8 Gold /min (GPM) 1811.7 5
93.4 Gold / min vs Avg 30.4
4 67.7 Gold Diff / min 83.8 3
4 0.8 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 1.2 3
2 1688.2 Kill Agnostic GPM 1617.0 5
3 48.6 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 34.3 4
4 1639.6 Opp Kill Agnostic GPM 1582.7 7
2 2163.4 GPM in wins 1939.1 3
1 402.7 Gold Diff per min in wins 318.6 6
7 1586.1 GPM in losses 1633.4 3
4 -267.2 Gold Diff per min in losses -244.8 3
79.7 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 95.8
2 220.6 Win-Adjusted GPM -3.7 3
1 116.2 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 32.1 6
7 47.2 Dragon Control % 57.1 4
4 50.0 Herald Control % 50.0 4
6 42.9 Baron Control % 69.2 2
6.0 Quality Wins? 4.0
100.0 % of wins as Quality 57.1

 (These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Cloud 9 have had some really bizarre games this split. Just looking at their performance metrics you’d think this team has a much better record but they’ve had some weird decisions that have cost them games as well as the K1ng/Zven situation.

Immortals have been more of a traditional dragon scaling squad and have taken advantage of a region in transition in much the same way that FlyQuest did in 2020 although perhaps to a less extreme degree. Immortals have shown a willingness to bump and scrap early and will play lane dominant champions if they feel the draft sets them up that way unlike FlyQuest who literally played scaling 2.5 or 2 core comps almost every single game. Immortals are looking to stabilize and outscale in most situations and have had an adept late game with a formidable post-20 gold differential per minute of +358. Once they turn the corner they’ve been very solid, they just dig themselves a hole sometimes.

Stylistically this is another example of a fire and ice matchup. If Cloud 9 can jump out to a lead with their up tempo looks then they’ll run this over, if Immortals are able to stabilize then they have the edge based on what we’ve seen so far. I do think Cloud 9 are the better team but there are enough questions and this line is disrespectful enough that I think Immortals are worth a position here.

My Picks:

Moneyline: Immortals +166 (1 unit)

Prop: Immortals first dragon @ -109 (1.09 units)

 


 

Golden Guardians +153 vs Counter Logic Gaming -200

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -114 / under -114)

Kill Spread: +5.5 @ -119 / -5.5 @ -109

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 14.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -118 / under -110)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  GGS +108 / CLG -139

Model Suggested Play: Golden Guardians moneyline

League Rank CLG Tale of the Tape GGS League Rank
5 -86.8 Gold Diff @ 10 min -663.8 10
6 -250.4 Gold Diff @ 15 min -337.2 7
6 104.4 Gold Diff @ 20 min -793.8 10
-30.5 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -30.5
7 -29.3 Gold Diff / min first 20 -59.2 9
7 -166.5 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -181.5 8
8 1712.1 Gold /min (GPM) 1789.0 6
-69.3 Gold / min vs Avg 7.7
7 -84.9 Gold Diff / min -199.6 9
7 -1.2 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -2.5 9
8 1562.8 Kill Agnostic GPM 1639.7 3
7 -55.6 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -81.3 8
6 1618.4 Opp Kill Agnostic GPM 1721.0 1
6 1920.0 GPM in wins 1836.5 8
3 341.8 Gold Diff per min in wins 169.1 8
5 1608.2 GPM in losses 1765.3 1
5 -298.2 Gold Diff per min in losses -383.9 9
-73.0 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -187.6
6 -22.8 Win-Adjusted GPM -106.2 8
3 55.3 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -117.4 8
8 42.4 Dragon Control % 57.7 3
6 43.5 Herald Control % 56.5 3
5 52.9 Baron Control % 31.3 8
3.0 Quality Wins? 0.0
75.0 % of wins as Quality 0.0

 (These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

This is a classic close your eyes special. The fact of the matter is that Golden Guardians actually haven’t been the worst team in the LCS this split but they’re still being treated as if they are. I’m not saying this team is good by any means but they have a very strong gold per minute even in losses (best in the league despite second worst differential), and they’ve actually had very stubborn objective control for a team with such a poor win/loss record. I’m not buying CLG at all, this training wheels, “bongo comp” is really easy to beat and teams showed that last week. If that’s all CLG have then I’ve got bad news for CLG fans…

The number is just a little too arrogant to me. I know Golden Guardians aren’t good but neither are CLG and while they might be better, they’re definitely not -200 better.

I like the underdog and the totals over.

My Picks:

Moneyline: Golden Guardians +153 (1 unit)

Kill Total (alt): OVER 26.5 @ +106 (1 unit)

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and you can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

 

 

 

 

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