Thursday, July 22nd Recap

 

Royal Never Give Up vs UltraPrime (Net: +1.23 units)

BiliBili vs RareAtom (Net: -1.19 units)

 

Liiv Sandbox vs Gen.G (Net: -0.12 units)

Afreeca Freecs vs T1 (Net: -2.0 units)

 

LPL Net Total: +0.04 units

LCK Net Total: -2.12 units

 

Daily Net Total: -2.08 units

 

After my power went out yesterday we had to move The Gold Card Podcast to a Thursday night show which means I’ve got to get ahead on my article for Friday. I’ll be adding the LEC and LCS to this post sometimes Thursday afternoon or evening before the show.

Any lineup announcements will also be updated within this post. Generally with these two matchups it shouldn’t affect things to any extreme degree and if it does I’ll provide an update.

 


LPL Summer 2021

Week Seven – Day Five

 

 

Rogue Warriors +547 (+1.5 maps @ +157, -1.5 @ +1400)

vs

TOP Esports -1111 (-1.5 maps @ -213)

 

Map Moneyline: RW +370 / TOP -588

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -127 / under -108)

Kill Spread: +9.5 @ -112 / -9.5 @ -119

Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 17.5

Time Total: 29:00 (over +111 / under -152)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: +300 / -448 (map), +541 / -1090 (series), +138 / -185 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: none

Starters:

RW – (pending)

TOP – (pending)

 

Trends
TOP as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) RW as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 5 4 -1099 Matches as Underdogs 4 7 +661
Against Map Spread 4 5 +42 Against Map Spread 5 6 +120
Against Kill Spread 10 11 5.6 Against Kill Spread 14 12 +9
Kill Totals 13 8 26.39 Kill Totals 13 13 25.41
Team Kill Totals 11 10 15.39 Team Kill Totals 15 11 8.14
Game Time Totals 10 11 30.7 Game Time Totals 12 14 29.55
Dragons over 4.5 8 13 Dragons over 4.5 10 16
Towers over 11.5 12 9 Towers over 11.5 7 19

 

League Rank TOP Tale of the Tape Rogue Warriors League Rank
9 71.7 Gold Diff @ 10 min -294.6 14
8 -53.3 Gold Diff @ 15 min -684.0 14
8 91.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min 362.5 12
20.3 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -92.6
7 16.3 Gold Diff / min first 20 -120.0 16
2 460.6 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -106.6 15
4 1855.5 Gold /min (GPM) 1666.9 15
67.7 Gold / min vs Avg -120.9
3 121.8 Gold Diff / min -222.6 15
3 1.7 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -3.1 15
5 1626.8 Kill Agnostic GPM 1523.2 15
4 66.9 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -133.7 15
4 1988.6 GPM in wins 1894.8 15
6 351.2 Gold Diff per min in wins 198.6 17
7 1648.4 GPM in losses 1569.2 16
1 -235.1 Gold Diff per min in losses -403.2 16
126.6 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -217.9
4 39.3 Win-Adjusted GPM -54.5 15
6 29.5 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -123.1 17
5 55.4 Dragon Control % 32.8 16
5 56.5 Herald Control % 41.7 12
3 63.6 Baron Control % 37.1 15
12.0 Quality Wins? 4.0
85.7 % of wins as Quality 44.4

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 61.430%
2 1 26.566%
1 2 7.329%
0 2 4.676%
(Series Win): 87.995%

Rogue Warriors have picked up a few upsets but their performance metrics haven’t changed at all which suggests to me that this team just caught the good end of variance a bit during this little streak they’ve put together. In other words, I’m absolutely, without question not buying Rogue Warriors at all. Are they better with this iteration of the lineup? Absolutely but this is still a fundamentally flawed team with poor measurables even if you isolate them to just since Xiaohao joined the team.

As a matter of fact, let’s take a look at how this handicap looks if we separate even further to just since they’ve been running with this iteration of the lineup. Below is the new Tale of the Tape and series projections.

League Rank TOP Tale of the Tape Rogue Warriors League Rank
9 71.7 Gold Diff @ 10 min -212.9 12
8 -53.3 Gold Diff @ 15 min -537.3 13
8 91.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min 362.5 11
20.1 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -88.9
7 16.3 Gold Diff / min first 20 -84.7 16
2 460.6 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 108.1 13
4 1855.5 Gold /min (GPM) 1705.7 15
65.4 Gold / min vs Avg -84.3
3 121.8 Gold Diff / min -155.8 15
3 1.7 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -2.2 15
5 1626.8 Kill Agnostic GPM 1552.4 15
4 66.9 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -104.3 15
4 1988.6 GPM in wins 1871.9 16
6 351.2 Gold Diff per min in wins 143.8 17
7 1648.4 GPM in losses 1595.0 14
1 -235.1 Gold Diff per min in losses -355.5 14
122.6 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -154.9
4 40.7 Win-Adjusted GPM -76.0 16
6 32.7 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -174.7 17
5 55.4 Dragon Control % 37.9 16
5 56.5 Herald Control % 43.3 12
3 63.6 Baron Control % 47.4 13
12.0 Quality Wins? 3.0
85.7 % of wins as Quality 50.0
Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 54.523%
2 1 28.527%
1 2 10.106%
0 2 6.843%
(Series Win): 83.050%

We’re talking roughly a 5% difference. I think people tend to get excited about these upstart underdogs but when you look at the literal performance level and it not being drastically different it’s a lot less enticing to want to back the hip new underdog. Is there an edge on market price? Yes, just not enough to move the needle for me given the overall quality of the teams involved here. If I liked RW at all you know I’d be on them here but I’ll pass on the side.

There are some decent edges in the derivatives here, most notably on the over 12.5 towers but I’m just staying away from this one. TOP do some stupid things sometimes but I have a tough time imagining Rogue Warriors getting a game here with any sort of consistency.

 

My Picks:

no wagers

 


 

FunPlus Phoenix -141 (-1.5 maps @ +200, +1.5 @ -406)

vs

Suning Gaming +116 (+1.5 maps @ -250, -1.5 @ +310)

 

(lines from Pinnacle)

Map Moneyline: FPX -135 / SN +111

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -127 / under -104)

Kill Spread: -3.5 @ -110 / +3.5 @ -120

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 11.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -151 / under +113)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -179 / +135 (map), -228 / +166 (series), +147 / -199 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: FunPlus series moneyline

Starters:

FPX –

SN –

Trends
FPX as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) SN as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 8 3 -1090 Matches as Underdogs 3 1 +164
Against Map Spread 6 5 -60 Against Map Spread 3 1 -206
Against Kill Spread 13 14 7.7 Against Kill Spread 8 2 +5
Kill Totals 17 10 26.41 Kill Totals 5 5 25.50
Team Kill Totals 15 12 16.50 Team Kill Totals 8 2 11.00
Game Time Totals 12 15 29.9 Game Time Totals 6 4 31.25
Dragons over 4.5 10 17 Dragons over 4.5 5 5
Towers over 11.5 12 15 Towers over 11.5 5 5

 

 

League Rank FunPlus Tale of the Tape Suning League Rank
2 798.7 Gold Diff @ 10 min 90.5 8
5 553.4 Gold Diff @ 15 min 661.0 4
4 140.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min 687.5 5
77.1 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -2.8
2 67.6 Gold Diff / min first 20 32.3 11
8 370.1 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 392.1 5
2 1903.9 Gold /min (GPM) 1813.1 8
116.2 Gold / min vs Avg 25.3
2 141.2 Gold Diff / min 62.9 9
2 2.0 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 0.9 10
1 1673.4 Kill Agnostic GPM 1620.4 8
2 102.0 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 23.6 10
1 1995.7 GPM in wins 1918.7 13
8 348.5 Gold Diff per min in wins 280.7 14
1 1720.4 GPM in losses 1666.8 3
4 -273.4 Gold Diff per min in losses -238.7 2
146.0 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 67.6
1 46.4 Win-Adjusted GPM -30.5 13
8 26.8 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -41.1 14
1 65.8 Dragon Control % 52.7 6
7 53.7 Herald Control % 49.2 10
5 58.6 Baron Control % 51.4 10
9.0 Quality Wins? 10.0
50.0 % of wins as Quality 55.6

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 36.979%
2 1 28.984%
1 2 18.679%
0 2 15.359%
(Series Win): 65.962%

 

Both of these teams are coming into this off of only a day between matches which is interesting.

Suning typically play the good teams better than the middle and bottom of the table where they seemingly take series off from time to time. I’d expect them to be up for this game but the fact of the matter is that I think they’re outclassed at every position except maybe ADC and even that’s debatable.

The model makes FunPlus a bigger favorite than this, I make FunPlus a bigger favorite than this. Suning have been excellent as underdogs this season but just looking at overall performance, those underdog performances are the only real justification for this line being this close. I like the favorites quite a bit here as well as the FPX first tower prop.

My Picks:

Moneyline: FPX -149 (1.49 units)

Map Spread: FPX -1.5 maps @ +200 (0.25 units)

Prop: Map 1 FPX first tower @ -155 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 FPX first tower @ -152 (1 unit)

 


 

LCK Summer

Week Seven – Day Two

 

KT Rolster +120 (+1.5 maps @ -263, -1.5 @ +314)

vs

Hanwha Life Esports -145 (-1.5 maps @ +189, +1.5 @ -476)

 

Map Moneyline: KT +110 / HLE -145

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -118 / under -114)

Kill Spread: +3.5 @ -120 / -3.5 @ -111

Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 12.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over +103 / under -141)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -135 / +103 (map), -141 / +116 (series), -399 / +347 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: KT series moneyline, +1.5 maps, and -1.5 maps

Trends
HLE as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) KT as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 2 3 -194 Matches as Underdogs 2 5 +237
Against Map Spread 1 4 +177 Against Map Spread 5 2 -149
Against Kill Spread 6 6 3.5 Against Kill Spread 7 11 +5
Kill Totals 5 7 23.70 Kill Totals 8 10 23.50
Team Kill Totals 5 7 12.70 Team Kill Totals 7 11 9.36
Game Time Totals 3 9 32.8 Game Time Totals 8 10 32.29
Dragons over 4.5 5 7 Dragons over 4.5 7 11
Towers over 11.5 5 7 Towers over 11.5 5 13

 

 

League Rank HLE Tale of the Tape KT League Rank
9.0 -399.7 Gold Diff @ 10 min 37.1 5.0
10.0 -708.2 Gold Diff @ 15 min -678.1 9.0
10.0 -647.8 Gold Diff @ 20 min -1007.8 8.0
-8.6 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -5.7
8.0 -14.6 Gold Diff / min first 20 -10.6 6.0
9.0 -216.1 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -184.7 8.0
8.0 1743.8 Gold /min (GPM) 1750.9 7.0
-24.8 Gold / min vs Avg -17.7
9.0 -67.1 Gold Diff / min -41.8 8.0
9.0 -0.9 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -0.6 8.0
9.0 1583.5 Kill Agnostic GPM 1588.4 8.0
9.0 -39.3 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -27.9 8.0
2.0 1945.7 GPM in wins 1932.5 3.0
1.0 370.8 Gold Diff per min in wins 311.6 7.0
5.0 1625.0 GPM in losses 1601.3 6.0
6.0 -324.7 Gold Diff per min in losses -332.9 8.0
-67.3 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -42.0
2.0 27.5 Win-Adjusted GPM 14.3 3.0
1.0 64.1 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 4.9 7.0
9.0 42.9 Dragon Control % 46.3 8.0
4.0 54.7 Herald Control % 46.7 7.0
8.0 38.2 Baron Control % 50.0 5.0
7.0 Quality Wins? 10.0
70.0 % of wins as Quality 71.4

 

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
0 2 29.249%
1 2 26.861%
2 1 22.806%
2 0 21.085%
(Series Win): 43.891%

The last time I backed KT Rolster it was against Nongshim last week and while KT severely let me down, I would do it again in a heartbeat. The wrong team is favored here. To get this line close to accurate you’d have to completely remove the first three weeks of the season for Hanwha Life. If you do that, then this looks reasonably accurate and a pass but if you consider full season performance blended with trending, which is what all of my projections do, then this is a slam dunk KT Rolster position.

Either way this should be a competitive contest with both teams more or less in “must win” situations if they want to stay alive in the competitive pack for the final few Summer playoff spots. At 8th and 9th these two have a lot of work to do so expect them to be motivated and dialed in for this contest.

My Picks:

Moneyline: KT Rolster +120 (1 unit)

Map Spread: KT -1.5 maps @ +314 (0.25 units)

 


 

Nongshim RedForce -278 (-1.5 maps @ +109, +1.5 @ -1111)

vs

Fredit Brion +221 (+1.5 maps @ -145, -1.5 @ +552)

 

Map Moneyline: NS -244 / BRO +177

Kill Total: 22.5 (over -105 / under -128)

Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -122 / +5.5 @ -110

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 8.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -133 / under -101)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -138 / +104 (map), -144 / +119 (series), +201 / -282 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: Brion +1.5 maps, series moneyline, and -1.5 maps

 

Trends
NS as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) BRO as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 5 2 -188 Matches as Underdogs 4 6 +261
Against Map Spread 2 5 +177 Against Map Spread 8 2 -101
Against Kill Spread 9 9 3.6 Against Kill Spread 13 12 +6
Kill Totals 6 12 23.36 Kill Totals 6 19 22.70
Team Kill Totals 10 8 12.93 Team Kill Totals 13 12 8.70
Game Time Totals 9 9 33.0 Game Time Totals 12 13 32.40
Dragons over 4.5 8 10 Dragons over 4.5 16 9
Towers over 11.5 4 13 Towers over 11.5 9 16

 

 

League Rank NS Tale of the Tape BRO League Rank
2.0 559.1 Gold Diff @ 10 min 40.7 4.0
6.0 -249.9 Gold Diff @ 15 min 25.6 5.0
3.0 202.4 Gold Diff @ 20 min 445.1 4.0
3.8 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -14.6
5.0 -4.9 Gold Diff / min first 20 -1.4 4.0
3.0 138.4 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -22.1 6.0
4.0 1779.1 Gold /min (GPM) 1741.8 9.0
10.6 Gold / min vs Avg -26.7
4.0 43.5 Gold Diff / min -7.7 6.0
4.0 0.6 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -0.2 6.0
7.0 1602.1 Kill Agnostic GPM 1603.4 6.0
5.0 3.0 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -13.1 7.0
9.0 1887.7 GPM in wins 1927.3 6.0
9.0 252.6 Gold Diff per min in wins 319.3 4.0
9.0 1581.7 GPM in losses 1568.0 10.0
9.0 -336.7 Gold Diff per min in losses -314.4 4.0
43.4 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -7.9
9.0 -30.4 Win-Adjusted GPM 9.1 6.0
9.0 -54.1 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 12.6 4.0
5.0 51.0 Dragon Control % 61.8 1.0
5.0 51.6 Herald Control % 43.3 8.0
4.0 52.6 Baron Control % 36.8 9.0
6.0 Quality Wins? 9.0
40.0 % of wins as Quality 60.0

 

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 29.684%
2 1 27.023%
1 2 22.576%
0 2 20.718%
(Series Win): 56.706%

It came up yesterday in a conversation in the Discord before my power abruptly went out for a few hours throwing my day for a loop. I wanted to take some time to discuss Nongshim because they’ve been the biggest difference between performance level expectation and results in the LCK this split.

If you look at the numbers this is by no means an impressive team by any stretch. They’re above average in a few spots, below in others, kind of a classic middle of the table team but they own a 9-3 match score and a 20-11 game for a league best +9 game differential. So what is it exactly that Nongshim are doing to pick up wins that aren’t appearing on the stat sheet?

Every so often you get teams that are just better (or worse) than their performance metrics. EDG were a great example from the LPL Spring, DRX from LCK Spring but for different reasons. Traditionally “scaling” focused teams are going to have worse “looking” numbers overall compared to their snowballing counterparts. Their differentials won’t be whopping often because they’re taking a hit early for late game insurance in the draft.

While not entirely linear, Nongshim prefer to play scaling looks and have a diverse set of strategies and laners with deep champion pools that allow them to take advantage of always having the better end of things compositionally in the draft if they can stabilize. So I do think they’re a better team than their numbers BUT, not to the extent where I think they’re the best team in the LCK or even remotely close to it. In other words, Nongshim are good, they aren’t this good and I expect them to have issues as teams figure them out over time. I think they’ve been the beneficiaries of some heroic individual performances this season as well as some severe underperformances by their opponents at opportune times. This isn’t a DRX Spring “lucky” situation but Nongshim have been running just a little too hot for me to believe.

I’ll talk about it another time, perhaps on the podcast Thursday night, but generally I think people might not realize just how much parity there is in the LCK aside from DRX. IF you look at the overall economy and objective grades across the board there is a VERY small gap between the 3rd-9th ranked teams. The only two teams really differentiating themselves in terms of performance metrics are T1 and Gen.G. When you have a high parity league and one team flips heads in a bunch of coin flip matchups then suddenly they can look much better than they actually are and I think we’re getting a little bit of that effect here with Nongshim. Am I saying they’re frauds? No… well, maybe just a little bit. They’re a good team, not as good as their record.

Enter Brion. Brion are… surprisingly average despite their record but they’re a fairly linear team. Coincidentally I think they’re actually well positioned to take advantage of the game that same scaling game Nongshim prefers to play.

This feels like a classic let down spot. Nongshim are coming off of a four match undefeated streak in the past two weeks handling KT, DAMWON, T1, and Afreeca. Certainly a formidable run but with a two match lead on the pack and a hungry Brion team battling for a playoff spot this feels like a perfect cross section of overvalued favorite, contrary motivations, and perhaps even a little bit of an undervalued dog as well.

As always, first dragon in Brion games as well.

 

My Picks:

Map Spread: Brion +1.5 maps @ -145 (1.45 units)

Moneyline: Brion +221 (0.5 units)

Map Spread: Brion -1.5 maps @ +552 (0.25 units)

Prop: Map 1 Brion first dragon @ +107 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 Brion first dragon @ +107 (1 unit)

 

 


LEC Summer 2021

Week Seven – Day One

 

Below are the power ratings vs standings after six weeks in the LEC.

After Week 6
Team Power # Rank
FNC 1.381972853 1
ROG 1.065740784 2
MSF 0.648576145 3
MAD 0.3299897172 4
G2 0.2641231436 5
VIT 0.0273458628 6
XL -0.5046149491 7
SK -0.686790308 8
S04 -1.265221563 9
AST -1.270657631 10

 

LEC 2021 Summer Standings
Team Games Str
1 ⁠⁠Fnatic 10 – 3 77% 5W
1 ⁠⁠Rogue 10 – 3 77% 2W
3 ⁠⁠Misfits Gaming 9 – 4 69% 2W
4 ⁠⁠MAD Lions 8 – 5 62% 1W
5 ⁠⁠G2 Esports 7 – 6 54% 1L
6 ⁠⁠Astralis 5 – 8 38% 2L
6 ⁠⁠Team Vitality 5 – 8 38% 2L
8 ⁠⁠Excel 4 – 9 31% 4L
8 ⁠⁠SK Gaming 4 – 9 31% 2W
10 ⁠⁠Schalke 04 3 – 10 23% 5L

(standings from Leaguepedia.com)

 

 


 

FC Schalke 04  -122 vs Excel Esports -104

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -120 / under -109)

Kill Spread: -0.5 @ -116 / +0.5 @ -116

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 11.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -132 / under +102)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: S04 +135 / XL -172

Model Suggested Play: Excel moneyline

Trends
S04 as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) XL as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 1 3 -186 Matches as Underdogs 4 6 +245
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 0 4 4.5 Against Kill Spread 8 2 +7
Kill Totals 2 2 25.00 Kill Totals 4 6 25.10
Team Kill Totals 1 3 14.00 Team Kill Totals 6 4 9.20
Game Time Totals 1 3 32.5 Game Time Totals 6 4 31.70
Dragons over 4.5 1 3 Dragons over 4.5 5 5
Towers over 11.5 4 0 Towers over 11.5 6 4

 

League Rank S04 Tale of the Tape XL League Rank
9.0 -572.9 Gold Diff @ 10 min -253.7 7.0
9.0 -1989.6 Gold Diff @ 15 min -532.9 8.0
9.0 -2093.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min -222.0 7.0
-78.3 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -79.9
9.0 -105.1 Gold Diff / min first 20 -72.5 7.0
10.0 -595.0 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -306.4 8.0
10.0 1653.9 Gold /min (GPM) 1679.1 8.0
-130.5 Gold / min vs Avg -105.3
10.0 -231.6 Gold Diff / min -119.6 7.0
10.0 -3.3 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -1.7 7.0
9.0 1534.0 Kill Agnostic GPM 1535.7 8.0
9.0 -133.2 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -85.7 7.0
7.0 1897.3 GPM in wins 1868.2 9.0
9.0 205.9 Gold Diff per min in wins 282.8 6.0
10.0 1580.9 GPM in losses 1595.1 8.0
8.0 -362.8 Gold Diff per min in losses -298.5 5.0
-231.3 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -119.4
7.0 -29.6 Win-Adjusted GPM -58.7 9.0
9.0 -89.1 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -12.2 6.0
10.0 27.5 Dragon Control % 33.3 9.0
5.0 53.8 Herald Control % 50.0 6.0
10.0 31.3 Baron Control % 47.1 5.0
1.0 Quality Wins? 1.0
33.3 % of wins as Quality 25.0

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

I wouldn’t go as far as to call these the two worst teams in the LEC but they’ve certainly been struggling of late with four and five game loss streaks entering this matchup. The bottom five teams in the LEC are all within two wins of each other and battling for the sixth and final playoff spot over the last two weeks so expect them all to be full game turkey for these matchups.

I think Excel probably are the better team here primarily due to objective setups being higher quality on film but I’m not nearly as bullish as the model is so I’m just passing on sides in this one.

Both teams have solid herald control but Excel have a 61.54% first herald rate compared to Schalke’s 38.46 so I think their first herald is actually worth a play.

My Picks:

Prop: Excel first herald @ -115 (1 unit)

 


 

Team Vitality +116 vs Misfits -149

 

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -111 / under -118)

Kill Spread: +0.5 @ -115 / -0.5 @ -116

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 13.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -130 / under +100)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: MSF -182 / VIT +141

Model Suggested Play: Misfits moneyline (light)

Trends
MSF as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) VIT as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 6 1 -232 Matches as Underdogs 2 5 +152
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 5 2 5.6 Against Kill Spread 4 3 +5
Kill Totals 2 5 25.07 Kill Totals 6 1 26.93
Team Kill Totals 5 2 14.79 Team Kill Totals 6 1 10.93
Game Time Totals 4 3 32.1 Game Time Totals 4 3 32.00
Dragons over 4.5 4 3 Dragons over 4.5 3 4
Towers over 11.5 3 4 Towers over 11.5 3 4

 

 

League Rank MSF Tale of the Tape VIT League Rank
4.0 179.0 Gold Diff @ 10 min 57.2 6.0
2.0 1138.6 Gold Diff @ 15 min 127.9 5.0
3.0 1234.5 Gold Diff @ 20 min -51.8 6.0
28.6 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 11.7
3.0 60.1 Gold Diff / min first 20 6.7 6.0
3.0 232.0 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -48.8 6.0
4.0 1826.9 Gold /min (GPM) 1785.6 6.0
42.5 Gold / min vs Avg 1.2
3.0 109.8 Gold Diff / min -16.8 6.0
3.0 1.6 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -0.1 6.0
5.0 1619.1 Kill Agnostic GPM 1605.0 6.0
5.0 46.7 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 5.8 6.0
8.0 1882.4 GPM in wins 1986.1 2.0
8.0 240.4 Gold Diff per min in wins 464.8 1.0
2.0 1702.0 GPM in losses 1660.3 6.0
2.0 -184.2 Gold Diff per min in losses -317.8 6.0
110.0 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -16.6
8.0 -44.5 Win-Adjusted GPM 59.2 2.0
8.0 -54.6 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 169.8 1.0
2.0 62.9 Dragon Control % 52.7 5.0
3.0 61.5 Herald Control % 50.0 6.0
5.0 47.1 Baron Control % 47.1 5.0
3.0 Quality Wins? 4.0
33.3 % of wins as Quality 80.0

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Misfits have come back down to earth a little but Vitality have lost five of their previous six games as well so again we have two teams coming in a bit “off” into this matchup.

Both teams need this win. Misfits would essentially secure a playoff berth with their tenth win and Vitality are currently in that bottom five pack battling for the final spots in playoffs so this is getting close to must-win territory for them. Expect both teams to be up for this.

Misfits have been the better team overall and despite their recent skid have more consistently built leads for themselves as evidenced by strong early game differentials and a much stronger kill agnostic gold differential per minute. Eye test matches what I see on paper as well. Vitality are just too inconsistent. I actually like the favorites here but not enough to make a wager.

Misfits first blood and first herald are both interesting looks in the prop market. Vitality are also a strong herald team so while there’s still a market edge on that pricing I’m going to go with the first blood here.

My Picks:

Prop: Misfits first blood @ -154 (1 unit)

 


 

MAD Lions -385 vs Astralis +271

 

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -115 / under -114)

Kill Spread: -7.5 @ -123 / +7.5 @ -109

Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -175 / under +134)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: MAD -389 / AST +273

Model Suggested Play: none

Trends
MAD as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) AST as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 8 3 -341 Matches as Underdogs 4 8 +246
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 3 8 6.8 Against Kill Spread 7 5 +7
Kill Totals 6 5 26.77 Kill Totals 5 7 26.33
Team Kill Totals 3 8 16.14 Team Kill Totals 9 3 9.75
Game Time Totals 8 3 31.2 Game Time Totals 7 5 31.58
Dragons over 4.5 4 7 Dragons over 4.5 6 6
Towers over 11.5 8 3 Towers over 11.5 5 7

 

League Rank MAD Tale of the Tape AST League Rank
5.0 165.4 Gold Diff @ 10 min -1407.1 10.0
6.0 104.3 Gold Diff @ 15 min -2941.4 10.0
5.0 -158.6 Gold Diff @ 20 min -2755.8 10.0
24.7 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -84.1
4.0 58.5 Gold Diff / min first 20 -161.8 10.0
4.0 205.7 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -165.3 7.0
5.0 1823.5 Gold /min (GPM) 1677.9 9.0
39.1 Gold / min vs Avg -106.6
4.0 89.5 Gold Diff / min -190.9 9.0
4.0 1.3 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -2.7 9.0
3.0 1634.7 Kill Agnostic GPM 1513.7 10.0
3.0 73.5 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -136.6 10.0
6.0 1916.7 GPM in wins 1827.0 10.0
7.0 278.1 Gold Diff per min in wins 126.7 10.0
3.0 1674.4 GPM in losses 1584.6 9.0
3.0 -212.2 Gold Diff per min in losses -389.4 10.0
89.8 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -190.7
6.0 -10.2 Win-Adjusted GPM -99.9 10.0
7.0 -16.9 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -168.3 10.0
4.0 55.4 Dragon Control % 34.4 8.0
4.0 57.7 Herald Control % 38.5 8.0
4.0 57.1 Baron Control % 35.0 9.0
3.0 Quality Wins? 0.0
37.5 % of wins as Quality 0.0

 

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

While I like Astralis’ simple approach to the game and it speaks to the effectiveness of something like that with a weaker squad, this is still a very, VERY bad team and I cannot emphasize enough the delta between their performance level and their results. Astralis grade out as the worst team in the LEC roughly the same as Schalke. Just look at their Tale of the Tape. I expect MAD will round into form for playoffs but their bottom lane is always going to sketch me out from backing them as big favorites. They’ve been extremely sloppy in that role this season.

I’m not making any plays in this contest. MAD Lions have an average margin of victory of just 6.63 kills this season and have been terrible 3-8 against the kill spread. If I absolutely had to make a wager here it’d be the kill spread or kill total over but I’m just passing.

My Picks:

no wagers

 


 

G2 Esports -357 vs SK Gaming +261

 

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -116 / under -112)

Kill Spread: -8.5 @ -119 / +8.5 @ -112

Team Kill Totals: 17.5 / 8.5

Time Total: 30:00 (over -130 / under +100)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: G2 -242 / SK +185

Model Suggested Play: SK Gaming moneyline

Trends
G2 as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) SK as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 5 6 -289 Matches as Underdogs 4 9 +216
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 2 9 6.1 Against Kill Spread 8 5 +7
Kill Totals 5 6 27.68 Kill Totals 4 9 25.81
Team Kill Totals 3 8 16.32 Team Kill Totals 7 6 9.65
Game Time Totals 5 6 31.6 Game Time Totals 6 7 31.38
Dragons over 4.5 3 8 Dragons over 4.5 4 9
Towers over 11.5 6 5 Towers over 11.5 6 7

 

 

League Rank G2 Tale of the Tape SK League Rank
3.0 635.6 Gold Diff @ 10 min -301.9 8.0
4.0 700.7 Gold Diff @ 15 min -462.5 7.0
4.0 569.6 Gold Diff @ 20 min -585.1 8.0
25.5 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -60.7
5.0 20.7 Gold Diff / min first 20 -98.6 8.0
5.0 74.2 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -342.8 9.0
3.0 1839.7 Gold /min (GPM) 1703.4 7.0
55.3 Gold / min vs Avg -81.0
5.0 74.2 Gold Diff / min -157.0 8.0
5.0 1.0 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -2.2 8.0
4.0 1631.0 Kill Agnostic GPM 1562.6 7.0
4.0 50.4 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -106.3 8.0
3.0 1983.3 GPM in wins 1931.9 5.0
4.0 327.5 Gold Diff per min in wins 309.2 5.0
4.0 1672.2 GPM in losses 1601.9 7.0
4.0 -221.3 Gold Diff per min in losses -364.2 9.0
74.4 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -156.8
3.0 56.3 Win-Adjusted GPM 5.0 5.0
4.0 32.5 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 14.2 5.0
3.0 62.3 Dragon Control % 49.1 7.0
10.0 22.7 Herald Control % 38.5 8.0
3.0 60.0 Baron Control % 35.3 8.0
5.0 Quality Wins? 2.0
71.4 % of wins as Quality 50.0

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

I’m not entirely sure if we’re going to get some roster shuffling for SK Gaming here but generally speaking I think this is just a little too big a price to pay for G2 given the inconsistencies we’ve seen from them this season. The looks I like most in this one are SK first blood and the under kill total which is the one I will be playing.

My Picks:

Kill Total: UNDER 26.5 @ -112 (1 unit)

 


 

Fnatic +106 vs Rogue -135

 

Kill Total: 27.5 (over -110 / under -119)

Kill Spread: +2.5 @ -120 / -2.5 @ -112

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 14.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -115 / under -112)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: FNC -127 / ROG +100

Model Suggested Play: Fnatic moneyline

Trends
ROG as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) FNC as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 10 3 -311 Matches as Underdogs 3 1 +99
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 7 6 6.2 Against Kill Spread 4 0 +6
Kill Totals 6 7 25.88 Kill Totals 3 1 29.00
Team Kill Totals 7 6 15.35 Team Kill Totals 4 0 11.75
Game Time Totals 6 7 31.6 Game Time Totals 1 3 31.75
Dragons over 4.5 6 7 Dragons over 4.5 0 4
Towers over 11.5 8 5 Towers over 11.5 3 1

 

League Rank ROG Tale of the Tape FNC League Rank
2.0 845.1 Gold Diff @ 10 min 1970.4 1.0
1.0 2020.2 Gold Diff @ 15 min 1028.3 3.0
1.0 1946.5 Gold Diff @ 20 min 269.3 2.0
112.8 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 99.7
1.0 175.2 Gold Diff / min first 20 108.7 2.0
2.0 402.3 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 478.7 1.0
2.0 1907.7 Gold /min (GPM) 1946.6 1.0
123.2 Gold / min vs Avg 162.1
2.0 213.0 Gold Diff / min 227.2 1.0
2.0 3.0 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 3.1 1.0
1.0 1698.6 Kill Agnostic GPM 1673.9 2.0
1.0 147.5 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 135.7 2.0
4.0 1978.5 GPM in wins 1997.8 1.0
2.0 373.8 Gold Diff per min in wins 340.9 3.0
5.0 1671.6 GPM in losses 1775.8 1.0
7.0 -323.0 Gold Diff per min in losses -152.0 1.0
213.2 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 227.4
4.0 51.6 Win-Adjusted GPM 70.9 1.0
2.0 78.8 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 45.9 3.0
5.0 52.7 Dragon Control % 69.0 1.0
1.0 65.4 Herald Control % 62.5 2.0
2.0 61.1 Baron Control % 82.4 1.0
8.0 Quality Wins? 5.0
80.0 % of wins as Quality 50.0

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

I’m about the biggest Rogue backer there is and I’m going against my boys in this one. These two have been the best two teams in the league by a mile and I honestly think they’re very evenly matched. Both have exceptional early games, never leave any gold to waste on the map, and do an exceptional job of choking other teams out of the game once they get an advantage.

Should be a great series, potentially a finals preview.

My Picks:

Moneyline: Fnatic +106 (1 unit)

 


LCS Summer 2021

Week Eight – Day One

 

LCS Summer 2021

Week Eight – Day One

 

Below are the model’s LCS power ratings after seven weeks.

LCS After Week 7
Team Power # Rank
EG 1.189541619 1
100T 0.9564710355 2
TSM 0.6313606819 3
C9 0.4908973265 4
TL 0.3729566833 5
GGS -0.02290848839 6
IMT -0.512123289 7
DIG -0.6634222856 8
CLG -1.252776827 9
FLY -1.262033376 10

 

LCS 2021 Summer Standings
Team Games Summer Str
1 ⁠⁠100 Thieves 27 – 12 69% 16 – 5 76% 2W
2 ⁠⁠TSM 26 – 13 67% 14 – 7 67% 2W
3 ⁠⁠Cloud9 24 – 15 62% 11 – 10 52% 2W
3 ⁠⁠Evil Geniuses 24 – 15 62% 14 – 7 67% 2W
5 ⁠⁠Team Liquid 23 – 16 59% 11 – 10 52% 2L
6 ⁠⁠Dignitas 19 – 20 49% 8 – 13 38% 2L
7 ⁠⁠Immortals 17 – 22 44% 10 – 11 48% 1W
8 ⁠⁠FlyQuest 13 – 26 33% 7 – 14 33% 2L
9 ⁠⁠Golden Guardians 12 – 27 31% 9 – 12 43% 1L
10 ⁠⁠Counter Logic Gaming 10 – 29 26% 5 – 16 24% 5L

(standings from Leaguepedia.com)


 

100 Thieves -127 vs Cloud 9 +100

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -122 / under -108)

Kill Spread: -1.5 @ -110 / +1.5 @ -119

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 11.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -110 / under -118)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: 100T -150 / C9 +118

Model Suggested Play: 100T moneyline (light)

Trends
100T as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) C9 as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 13 5 -307 Matches as Underdogs 0 1 -101
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 10 8 6.1 Against Kill Spread 0 1 +3
Kill Totals 7 11 24.50 Kill Totals 0 1 24.50
Team Kill Totals 8 10 14.61 Team Kill Totals 0 1 11.50
Game Time Totals 8 10 31.8 Game Time Totals 1 0 32.00
Dragons over 4.5 7 11 Dragons over 4.5 1 0
Towers over 11.5 10 8 Towers over 11.5 0 1

 

League Rank 100T Tale of the Tape C9 League Rank
5 316.4 Gold Diff @ 10 min 653.9 3
2 1271.3 Gold Diff @ 15 min 836.6 3
2 712.8 Gold Diff @ 20 min 842.9 3
46.2 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 33.6
1 117.2 Gold Diff / min first 20 63.7 3
1 312.9 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 312.3 2
3 1825.8 Gold /min (GPM) 1892.7 2
40.8 Gold / min vs Avg 107.7
1 173.8 Gold Diff / min 118.4 3
1 2.4 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 1.6 3
3 1630.9 Kill Agnostic GPM 1690.5 2
1 112.8 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 74.8 3
10 1518.1 Opp Kill Agnostic GPM 1615.7 6
7 1910.4 GPM in wins 2114.1 1
4 342.3 Gold Diff per min in wins 432.9 1
10 1554.8 GPM in losses 1649.1 2
9 -365.5 Gold Diff per min in losses -227.4 2
177.6 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 122.2
7 -30.1 Win-Adjusted GPM 173.6 1
4 40.0 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 130.6 1
2 60.9 Dragon Control % 51.0 6
6 45.9 Herald Control % 50.0 5
2 65.4 Baron Control % 50.0 5
12.0 Quality Wins? 9.0
75.0 % of wins as Quality 81.8

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

This feels really cheap for 100 Thieves given the overall level of performance we’ve seen from Cloud 9 this Summer but maybe that’s just me.  Cloud 9 have been way too inconsistent and while I do think they’ll improve and should be playing better than they are, until they prove that I’m not buying it.

My favorite play isn’t 100 Thieves here it’s the kill total under. only 40.48% of games between these two (average 38.09 / 42.86%) are going over the 23.5 total. The projection likes a slightly higher 25.03 but this feels like it’ll be a stomp one way or the other with how these two have been this season.

My Picks:

Kill Total (alt): UNDER 23.5 kills @ +113 (1 unit)

 


 

Evil Geniuses +103 vs Team Solo Mid -132

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -111 / under -118)

Kill Spread: +1.5 @ -116 / -1.5 @ -112

Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 12.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -102 / under -127)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: EG -153 / TSM +119

Model Suggested Play: Evil Geniuses moneyline (strong)

Trends
TSM as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) EG as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 11 6 -260 Matches as Underdogs 6 3 +136
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 6 11 5.4 Against Kill Spread 7 2 +5
Kill Totals 5 12 24.15 Kill Totals 5 4 25.50
Team Kill Totals 5 12 14.15 Team Kill Totals 6 3 10.61
Game Time Totals 8 9 32.1 Game Time Totals 4 5 32.00
Dragons over 4.5 6 11 Dragons over 4.5 4 5
Towers over 11.5 10 7 Towers over 11.5 4 5

 

League Rank TSM Tale of the Tape EG League Rank
2 862.7 Gold Diff @ 10 min 1084.6 1
5 159.5 Gold Diff @ 15 min 2124.3 1
4 109.5 Gold Diff @ 20 min 1774.3 1
-2.1 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 58.6
4 29.1 Gold Diff / min first 20 112.9 2
5 108.3 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 158.5 3
6 1772.4 Gold /min (GPM) 1939.7 1
-12.6 Gold / min vs Avg 154.8
5 52.3 Gold Diff / min 158.5 2
5 0.7 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 2.2 2
6 1613.3 Kill Agnostic GPM 1711.8 1
5 37.2 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 102.4 2
9 1576.1 Opp Kill Agnostic GPM 1609.4 7
9 1860.3 GPM in wins 2086.7 2
9 215.8 Gold Diff per min in wins 347.4 3
6 1618.5 GPM in losses 1645.6 4
3 -249.3 Gold Diff per min in losses -219.2 1
56.1 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 162.3
9 -80.2 Win-Adjusted GPM 146.2 2
9 -86.6 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 45.1 3
3 56.7 Dragon Control % 55.6 4
3 58.5 Herald Control % 61.9 1
1 73.3 Baron Control % 58.1 3
6.0 Quality Wins? 10.0
42.9 % of wins as Quality 71.4

 

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

I don’t know what I’m missing here… And what’s more is that TSM have taken money since I first looked at this earlier in the week. Even from this afternoon it’s down from split -115’s. Somebody out there likes TSM in this spot. I actually like TSM more than most of my colleagues do and think that they’re currently the third best team in the LCS but that they’re a tier away from 100T and EG.

Obviously I’m on Evil Geniuses here. I discussed it on the podcast tonight but EG have been a legitimately good team not just for the LCS but when you compare their numbers against the rest of the world’s top teams you’d be surprised. They have the highest kill agnostic gold per minute on the planet and they’re the only team in the world over 1700 gpm in that metric in the five majors. I think this team is legitimately good and people haven’t quite come around to that yet.

EG roll.

 

My Picks:

Moneyline: Evil Geniuses +103 (2 units)

 


 

FlyQuest +176 vs Team Liquid -233

 

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -119 / under -110)

Kill Spread: +5.5 @ -105 / -5.5 @ -123

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 14.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -101 / under -128)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: FLY +128 / TL -166

Model Suggested Play: FlyQuest moneyline

Trends
TL as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) FLY as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 11 4 -279 Matches as Underdogs 7 12 +177
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 9 6 6.0 Against Kill Spread 9 10 +6
Kill Totals 7 8 24.43 Kill Totals 8 11 24.87
Team Kill Totals 10 5 14.50 Team Kill Totals 10 9 9.66
Game Time Totals 10 5 31.6 Game Time Totals 8 11 31.68
Dragons over 4.5 7 8 Dragons over 4.5 10 9
Towers over 11.5 6 9 Towers over 11.5 13 6

 

 

League Rank TL Tale of the Tape FLY League Rank
4 367.5 Gold Diff @ 10 min -716.9 8
4 671.2 Gold Diff @ 15 min -1792.5 9
5 778.3 Gold Diff @ 20 min -1794.0 9
2.8 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -39.2
5 26.6 Gold Diff / min first 20 -87.6 10
4 150.8 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 124.8 5
5 1801.0 Gold /min (GPM) 1793.3 6
3.4 Gold / min vs Avg -4.3
4 67.2 Gold Diff / min 2.1 6
4 1.0 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 0.0 6
4 1629.6 Kill Agnostic GPM 1592.1 8
4 41.5 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -5.7 6
8 1588.1 Opp Kill Agnostic GPM 1597.8 7
3 1941.1 GPM in wins 1890.6 8
2 370.9 Gold Diff per min in wins 184.2 10
3 1646.8 GPM in losses 1598.7 8
4 -266.9 Gold Diff per min in losses -362.2 9
51.6 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -13.5
3 -2.9 Win-Adjusted GPM -53.5 8
2 67.3 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -119.5 10
5 52.0 Dragon Control % 44.8 8
8 43.6 Herald Control % 58.3 4
5 53.8 Baron Control % 66.7 2
8.0 Quality Wins? 2.0
72.7 % of wins as Quality 50.0

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Liquid might not be the same team that they were earlier this season before all the drama but they’re still decent and most importantly they’ve handled business against the weaker teams in the league fairly easily for the most part with almost all of their losses coming to the top of the table.

The above numbers (besides the trends section) have filtered FlyQuest down to just their two weeks of games with the academy roster. With that filter in place, FlyQuest are a short value on the moneyline here. My gut tells me Liquid take care of business and we see the continued downtrend as the LCS teams start to figure this roster out, but I’m certainly not paying the premium for Liquid in this spot so I’ll just pass on a side.

FlyQuest academy have made picking up the first herald a priority in their games and while Liquid have a respectable 52.38%, I like the “better” first herald team even through a small sample size with the backup of what I’ve seen on film for FlyQuest. +119 is a nice price.

My Picks:

Prop: FlyQuest first herald @ +119 (1 unit)

 


 

CLG +113 vs Golden Guardians -145

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -109 / under -120)

Kill Spread: +2.5 @ -110 / -2.5 @ -119

Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 12.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -123 / under -105)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: CLG +188 / GGS -250

Model Suggested Play: GGS moneyline (strong)

Trends
GGS as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) CLG as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 0 0 #DIV/0! Matches as Underdogs 3 13 +158
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 0 0 #DIV/0! Against Kill Spread 4 12 +6
Kill Totals 0 0 #DIV/0! Kill Totals 7 9 24.56
Team Kill Totals 0 0 #DIV/0! Team Kill Totals 4 12 9.63
Game Time Totals 0 0 #DIV/0! Game Time Totals 9 7 31.75
Dragons over 4.5 0 0 Dragons over 4.5 10 6
Towers over 11.5 0 0 Towers over 11.5 9 7

 

League Rank GGS Tale of the Tape CLG League Rank
7 -453.1 Gold Diff @ 10 min -996.9 10
6 8.7 Gold Diff @ 15 min -2031.9 10
6 -379.3 Gold Diff @ 20 min -2057.6 10
-9.6 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -64.1
6 -31.6 Gold Diff / min first 20 -76.2 9
8 -23.8 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -366.8 10
4 1802.6 Gold /min (GPM) 1668.7 10
5.1 Gold / min vs Avg -128.8
8 -85.5 Gold Diff / min -183.3 10
8 -1.0 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -2.6 10
5 1620.1 Kill Agnostic GPM 1540.9 9
7 -40.7 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -117.0 10
1 1660.8 Opp Kill Agnostic GPM 1657.9 2
6 1913.6 GPM in wins 1921.6 4
7 273.3 Gold Diff per min in wins 319.0 5
1 1719.4 GPM in losses 1589.7 9
8 -354.7 Gold Diff per min in losses -340.2 6
-101.1 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -198.9
6 -30.4 Win-Adjusted GPM -22.4 4
7 -30.3 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 15.3 5
1 63.0 Dragon Control % 37.3 10
2 60.0 Herald Control % 36.6 10
8 40.7 Baron Control % 40.0 9
3.0 Quality Wins? 4.0
33.3 % of wins as Quality 80.0

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Another one we talked a lot about on the podcast but last week’s CLG loss to Immortals might have been the worst throw in the thousands of games of professional League of Legends I’ve watched over the past decade. For lack of more graceful terms, that’s the kind of loss that you need to send someone home with the team afterwards. It was entirely humiliating in every way shape and form and quite frankly depressing to watch. WildTurtle was literally crying on stage it was that brutal. I feel for the CLG guys, I really do.

All that’s to say, if this team is able to bounce back from that I’ll have a tremendous amount of respect for them. I’d assume this is going to be their rallying cry, their last stand for respect and that CLG will give it their all…. but man this team has been terrible. Meanwhile, Golden Guardians know exactly who they are and whether or not they’re a title contender, they’re playing confident League of Legends with a strong identity right now. GGS might actually be your 5th best team in the LCS if I had to figure that out right now.

Model shows a massive edge on this one and I agree.

My Picks:

Moneyline: GGS -145 (1.45 units)

 

I rarely play parlays but when there is a substantial edge on the market price for three wagers like this I’ll play a round robin. The EG and 100T/C9 UNDER provide double digit advantage on the market price and GGS more than 8% edge on market price.

 

Big Edge Round Robin Parlay:

Parlay (2): GGS ML + EG ML @ +243 (0.5 units)

Parlay (2): GGS ML + 100T/C9 UNDER 24.5 @ +226 (0.5 units)

Parlay (2): EG ML + 100T/C9 UNDER 24.5 @ +292 (0.5 units)

Parlay (3): GGS ML + EG ML + 100T/C9 UNDER 24.5 @ +562 (0.25 units)

 


 

Dignitas +124 vs Immortals -159

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -12 / under -116)

Kill Spread: +3.5 @ -114 / -3.5 @ -114

Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 13.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -127 / under -103)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: DIG +100 / IMT -127

Model Suggested Play: DIG moneyline (light)

Trends
IMT as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) DIG as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 7 3 -154 Matches as Underdogs 4 11 +150
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 7 3 3.2 Against Kill Spread 8 7 +6
Kill Totals 4 6 24.40 Kill Totals 6 9 25.17
Team Kill Totals 4 6 13.10 Team Kill Totals 7 8 10.03
Game Time Totals 3 7 32.0 Game Time Totals 6 9 31.80
Dragons over 4.5 6 4 Dragons over 4.5 4 11
Towers over 11.5 6 4 Towers over 11.5 5 10

 

League Rank IMT Tale of the Tape DIG League Rank
6 -445.5 Gold Diff @ 10 min -854.4 9
8 -792.5 Gold Diff @ 15 min -326.0 7
8 -351.5 Gold Diff @ 20 min -142.0 7
7.1 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -23.4
7 -41.5 Gold Diff / min first 20 -50.6 8
7 5.4 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -238.3 9
8 1765.5 Gold /min (GPM) 1714.0 9
-32.1 Gold / min vs Avg -83.5
7 -39.2 Gold Diff / min -108.4 9
7 -0.6 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -1.5 9
7 1593.7 Kill Agnostic GPM 1539.0 10
8 -41.1 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -95.7 9
3 1634.8 Opp Kill Agnostic GPM 1634.7 4
5 1919.9 GPM in wins 1881.9 9
8 261.0 Gold Diff per min in wins 289.5 6
5 1625.1 GPM in losses 1610.7 7
5 -312.2 Gold Diff per min in losses -353.4 7
-54.8 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -124.0
5 -24.2 Win-Adjusted GPM -62.1 9
8 -42.6 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -14.1 6
7 46.5 Dragon Control % 41.6 9
9 42.9 Herald Control % 53.7 5
7 43.8 Baron Control % 31.8 10
5.0 Quality Wins? 3.0
50.0 % of wins as Quality 37.5

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Quick note on this match. Immortals had a pair of positive COVID-19 tests so they’ll be playing remotely and their opponents will have the option to do the same if they wish. 

Given the current form of Immortals, which has been slightly declined from their Summer average, I’m more or less in agreement with the model here. I think they’re the better team but that this is close enough to market that it’s a Dignitas or nothing play and for me I’ll just pass.

Dignitas first blood and first herald are the premier derivative plays here. Dig’s 61.9% first herald rate is one of the best in the league while Immortals much prefer dragon stacking when they can although they haven’t been particularly good at any of the first. Immortals are a “lane you to death” type of team. They don’t sell out for neutrals.

I’ll take Dignitas first herald.

My Picks:

Prop: Dignitas first herald @ -116 (1 unit)

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and you can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

 

 

 

 

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