Thursday, June 15th Recap

 

Victory Five vs Royal Never Give Up (Net: -2.0 units)

RNG were down 0-7 kills in this game one and still pulled the win out which honestly wasn’t surprising given how close the gold was and how much of a propensity V5 have to throw in the mid game.

BiliBili vs TOP Esports (Net: -4.36 units)

This TOP Esports team is so two-faced it’s frustrating. They looked tremendous today. Not particularly surprised at the result. It sucks but would still have bet BLG at this number no question.

KT Rolster vs T1 (Net: +3.53 units)

This was a complete whooping by T1, not much else to say. KT’s drafts were very suspect in both games.

DAMWON Gaming vs Nongshim RedForce (Net: -2.94 units)

This series was a complete fiesta. Game one DAMWON wasn’t able to hold serve before the Ryze+Aphelios scaling kicked in although if they were more thorough in their setup for the third drake the huge swing in gold plus a baron wouldn’t have been a thing and perhaps they win this game. Game two DAMWON grinded out a methodical win. Game four was once again the Deokdam show as he picked up a few early kills to snowball his Ezreal ahead of the curve.

I keep saying it but Nongshim are a bit of an enigma. This team is steadily improving but they’ve also been the beneficiary of a lot of botched games by their opponents a la DRX in Spring. I don’t think it’s quite to the same extreme degree as that DRX team but they seem to always get the hero performances when it matters and they definitely play up to their competition.

That said, I don’t think this was necessarily an undeserved win or anything like that. I’m just not sure how much I’m buying in to this team being good is all. They aren’t consistently creating big or even incremental advantages at any point during the game. They’re a bottom half early game rating team, their agnostic differential and raw differentials are middle of the pack, and their objective control is exactly 5th in everything.

I’m not sure what to make of this match. It was a bit of a weird one for game one and sometimes a series will go off the rails but DAMWON still look really sloppy. Nongshim… I just don’t know like I’m still not buying it but if they’re going to keep getting these hero individual performances than they’ll keep winning.

 

Daily Net Total: -5.77 units

 

I’ve never just given up and called it quits on a league in my handicapping career but I’m strongly considering hanging it up in the LPL for the Summer but before I do that let’s take a look at exactly what’s been going so terribly.

 

By Type Win Loss Cancel Win % Wagered OVR NET ROI%
Moneyline 10 25 28.57142857 45.34 -20.9575 -46.22
Spread 14 50 21.875 75.8 -30.5175 -40.26
Time Total 3 5 0 37.5 8.86 -2.15 -24.27
Kill Total 5 17 2 22.72727273 24.76 -11.84 -47.82
Kill Spread 0 4 1 0 5.44 -4.3 -79.04
Map ML 1 7 0 12.5 4 -0.175 -4.38
Prop 13 7 0 65 17.75 4.633498023 26.10

 

This is obviously going to be red across the board but let’s take a bit of a deeper dive.

First, to be a little optimistic, props are going well so far with almost all of these being “firsts” bets with a few tower total under’s sprinkled in although that market has since sailed.

Second, how in the actual hell are spreads going this poorly? My average bet in the map spreads market is 1.184 units. On wagers greater than 2 units in this space I’ve gone 5-9. All five of the winners were favorites -1.5 maps.

Third, I’ve won just six underdog +1.5 maps wagers this entire season.  Keep in mind the overwhelming majority of those 64 map spread bets were underdog +1.5 maps. That’s where I’m bleeding.

Fourth, on series moneylines my average odds are +175.74 compared to just +42 for the entire season so keep that in mind. Lot more longer dogs. Of the 35 moneyline bets I’ve placed, only eight have been on favorites. I’ve lost on 5 out of those 8 (losses were EDG vs TOP, WE vs OMG, RNG vs LNG, FPX vs LNG, JDG vs LNG, UP vs RW). I’m -15.77 units net on those 8 favorite wagers. When I’ve picked favorites I’ve gone heavy on them with an average wager of 3.0425 units. If you bet big and miss it sucks. Rocket science.

While it’s a bit masochistic doing this sort of thing in public, and no doubt I’ll get my usual handful of critics, I am someone that is fully transparent with all of you. I’ve had a single losing season as a handicapper in my six years tracking it and I’ll be here sharing all the gory (Gori?) details not just the wins. This type of run absolutely sucks. I finished the Spring season up ~25 units in the LPL and a +2.24% ROI. Almost the entirety of my losses this Summer have been in the LPL. It’s always been my kryptonite and every year I think I’ve figured things out it finds a way to remind me that it is a cruel, cruel beast. All we can do is make adjustments and cut losses at this point.

So what are those adjustments.

First, I’m switching to flat staking not just for the LPL unless there is a ridiculous circumstance. Clearly the inverse confidence model is TOO STRONG. For real though when I go heavy this season I’m losing and that’s almost across the board. I’ve actually been ridiculously good on average besides this LPL Summer so it makes a lot more sense to just switch to this even though it’ll make record keeping a little wonkier looking. I’ll be flat one unit unless there are extreme circumstances.

Second, I’ve been tweeking the model quite a bit as I try to adjust mid season but the current metagame is not particularly good for the things it measures and even after making a number of adjustments. That said, it is still significantly out performing me on the season and I should probably be trusting the strong indicator plays if suggests more than I have been.

Third, I’m going to be more selective in the LPL and only take the bigger edges.

 


LPL Summer 2021

Week Six – Day Five

 

ThunderTalk (TT) Gaming +274 (+1.5 maps @ -118, -1.5 @ +728)

vs

LGD Gaming -385 (-1.5 maps @ -108, +1.5 @ -1667)

 

Map Moneyline: TT +220 / LGD -294

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -118 / under -110)

Kill Spread: +7.5 @ -105 / -7.5 @ -123

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 17.5

Time Total: 30:00 (over -114 / under -114)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  +124 / -164 (map), +148 / -199 (series), -223 / +162 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: TT +1.5 maps and map moneylines

Starters:

TT – Langx, Xiaopeng, Ye, SamD, Pudding

LGD – Garvey, Shad0w, Xiye, Kramer, Mark

Trends
LGD as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) TT as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 3 0 -439 Matches as Underdogs 0 9 +692
Against Map Spread 3 0 +63 Against Map Spread 2 7 +159
Against Kill Spread 6 0 4.8 Against Kill Spread 7 10 +9
Kill Totals 4 2 25.83 Kill Totals 7 10 25.72
Team Kill Totals 5 1 14.83 Team Kill Totals 7 10 8.06
Game Time Totals 2 4 30.0 Game Time Totals 8 9 29.78
Dragons over 4.5 2 4 Dragons over 4.5 8 9
Towers over 11.5 3 3 Towers over 11.5 10 7
 

 

 

League Rank LGD Tale of the Tape TT League Rank
13 -419.0 Gold Diff @ 10 min -545.7 15
16 -1348.6 Gold Diff @ 15 min -1831.3 17
15 -700.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min -2075.0 16
-7.5 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -79.4
11 -72.9 Gold Diff / min first 20 -138.6 15
11 264.2 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 96.9 13
12 1773.0 Gold /min (GPM) 1644.2 16
-14.3 Gold / min vs Avg -143.1
12 -36.1 Gold Diff / min -281.3 16
12 -0.5 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -3.9 16
12 1574.6 Kill Agnostic GPM 1510.1 16
12 -18.7 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -176.5 16
11 1933.4 GPM in wins 1885.8 17
13 297.6 Gold Diff per min in wins 283.1 15
9 1635.5 GPM in losses 1590.6 14
12 -322.2 Gold Diff per min in losses -406.8 15
-29.8 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -275.0
11 -15.0 Win-Adjusted GPM -62.6 17
13 -21.2 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -35.6 15
14 43.0 Dragon Control % 41.2 15
12 42.3 Herald Control % 42.9 11
9 51.7 Baron Control % 30.8 15
6.0 Quality Wins? #N/A
50.0 % of wins as Quality #N/A

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 34.569%
2 1 28.488%
1 2 19.965%
0 2 16.979%
(Series Win): 63.056%

For a team with as sloppy a macro game as LGD have they’ve been dominant as favorites this season and haven’t dropped a single game. TT have been the opposite only taking two maps as underdogs over the course of the Summer season.

So what is it these two teams do well? Honestly, not much. LGD are sort of middle of the pack in most performance metrics and as I mentioned earlier tend to be a little sloppy with leads. TT will often sell out for first neutrals at the expensive of their overall economy. TT have had just a single gold lead at 15 minutes in their past 8 games albeit against a challenging schedule of  Vici, EDG, and BiliBili for 7 of those 8. The lone lead was in their game two LOSS against BiliBili. The map they won they didn’t even have the gold lead at 15.

TT are spunky underdogs and they’re pretty good at creating action they just sell out way too much for it. SamD and Pudding have been involved with or picked up first blood in four of the last eight. Xiaopeng as we know is an action jungler early in the game as well. I could see LGD’s poor macro biting them here. While most good teams can absorb the weird action early from TT and just grind out a gold lead anyway through laning or playing the map better, I’m not entirely sure I trust LGD to do that. If I had to be on a side in this contest it’d be LGD since they’ve mostly taken care of business as favorites but I’m not laying this kind of number with a team that’s below average by just about every measure.

My favorite play in this contest is TT first dragon at +114. LGD have a 23% first dragon rate on the season while TT sit at 54.5%. There’s also a nice edge on first herald for TT if you prefer that route with their 54.55% vs LGD’s 46.15%.

 

My Picks:

Prop: Map 1 TT first dragon @ +114 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 TT first dragon @ +110 (1 unit)

 


 

JD Gaming -256 (-1.5 maps @ +127, +1.5 @ -909)

vs

Invictus Gaming +196 (+1.5 maps @ -164, -1.5 @ +533)

 

Map Moneyline: JDG -213 / IG +164

Kill Total: 27.5 (over -108 / under -122)

Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -119 / +5.5 @ -110

Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 10.5

Time Total: 30:00 (over -133 / under +103)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  -113 / -111 (map), -113 / -111 (series) +254 / -353 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: Invictus series moneyline (big)

Starters:

JDG – Zoom, Kanavi, Yagao, LokeN, LvMao

IG – TheShy, XUN, Rookie, Wink, Lucas

Trends
JDG as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) IG as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 4 2 -1315 Matches as Underdogs 2 4 +189
Against Map Spread 3 3 -127 Against Map Spread 2 4 -161
Against Kill Spread 7 8 7.7 Against Kill Spread 6 7 +6
Kill Totals 8 7 26.17 Kill Totals 5 8 26.00
Team Kill Totals 8 7 16.33 Team Kill Totals 6 7 10.83
Game Time Totals 7 8 30.0 Game Time Totals 6 7 30.67
Dragons over 4.5 10 5 Dragons over 4.5 3 10
Towers over 11.5 7 8 Towers over 11.5 6 7

 

 

League Rank JDG Tale of the Tape Invictus League Rank
7 189.2 Gold Diff @ 10 min 299.7 6
10 126.1 Gold Diff @ 15 min 263.5 9
9 -375.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min 925.0 11
36.0 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -9.1
5 30.2 Gold Diff / min first 20 -24.2 12
2 506.9 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 456.3 4
3 1853.5 Gold /min (GPM) 1807.2 9
66.2 Gold / min vs Avg 19.9
6 96.3 Gold Diff / min -16.6 11
6 1.3 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -0.3 11
5 1627.1 Kill Agnostic GPM 1622.1 7
6 50.0 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 5.9 11
5 1978.8 GPM in wins 1999.8 2
8 327.9 Gold Diff per min in wins 308.4 11
11 1634.3 GPM in losses 1667.1 5
10 -309.0 Gold Diff per min in losses -252.9 4
102.7 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -10.2
5 30.4 Win-Adjusted GPM 51.4 2
8 9.1 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -10.4 11
6 56.0 Dragon Control % 56.4 5
17 34.9 Herald Control % 68.4 1
4 63.3 Baron Control % 60.0 5
8.0 Quality Wins? 2.0
57.1 % of wins as Quality 25.0

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 25.183%
2 1 25.091%
1 2 24.908%
0 2 24.817%
(Series Win): 50.274%

 

All memes aside, this is exactly the kind of series that Invictus win isn’t it? This team…

In all seriousness, Invictus are kind of a difficult team to pin down. When the bottom lane isn’t feeding they look like one of the best teams in the league but that’s not exactly a reliable situation. They’re just naturally volatile because of this. It’s why you see their spike performances in both directions.

These two teams are coming in opposites. JDG have won four straight and six of their last seven with the one game loss coming to RareAtom. Invictus have lost their last four games since winning 2-0 against FPX and winning game one against Team WE.

It’s always painful betting Invictus games but it’s pretty tough to ignore a double digit edge on the side in this contest. I don’t think JDG are as good as public perception and while I’d anticipate that they eventually round into form, they’re a team with plenty of inconsistencies themselves. Invictus still have those spike performances and as we’ve seen, they play up to their level of competition. I think they could jump out to a lead off of their league best herald control rate and snowball the gold in that way.

So this leaves me with a bit of a choice. Invictus first herald and/or first tower are both double digit edges on market price but so is the side as well as the +1.5 maps. I also prefer their philosophy on the game (herald snowballing > dragon scaling right now, in my opinion). The bottom lane is the question. TheShy is always a wildcard but has gotten the better of Zoom in the majority of their matchups over the years.

Invictus first tower is the second strongest edge on market (series moneyline strongest) but that’s where I’m going on this one. JDG have an abysmal 36.36% first tower rate this season to Invictus’ 63+%

My Picks:

Prop: Map 1 Invictus first tower @ -101 (1.01 unit)

Prop: Map 2 Invictus first tower @ +100 (1 unit)

 


 

LCK Summer 2021

Week Six – Day Two

 

 

Fredit Brion +153 (+1.5 maps @ -217, -1.5 @ +416)

vs

Afreeca Freecs -185 (-1.5 maps @ +167, +1.5 @ -667)

 

Map Moneyline: BRO +135 / AF -172

Kill Total: 21.5 (over -108 / under -122)

Kill Spread: +4.5 @ -108 / -4.5 @ -122

Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 12.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -108 / under -122)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  +190 / -249 (map), +287 / -368 (series), -128 / +101 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: Afreeca series moneyline and -1.5 maps

 

Trends
AF as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) BRO as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 1 1 -173 Matches as Underdogs 3 6 +273
Against Map Spread 0 2 +181 Against Map Spread 7 2 -88
Against Kill Spread 3 3 4.5 Against Kill Spread 11 12 +6
Kill Totals 2 4 24.50 Kill Totals 5 18 22.83
Team Kill Totals 2 4 13.50 Team Kill Totals 11 12 8.72
Game Time Totals 3 3 33.0 Game Time Totals 12 11 32.33
Dragons over 4.5 5 1 Dragons over 4.5 16 7
Towers over 11.5 2 4 Towers over 11.5 9 14

 

 

League Rank AF Tale of the Tape BRO League Rank
4.0 65.3 Gold Diff @ 10 min -354.7 9.0
3.0 221.1 Gold Diff @ 15 min -497.8 9.0
3.0 -32.4 Gold Diff @ 20 min -782.6 8.0
14.5 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -18.6
2.0 40.9 Gold Diff / min first 20 -18.3 8.0
5.0 28.0 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -113.6 8.0
5.0 1770.5 Gold /min (GPM) 1711.7 9.0
6.9 Gold / min vs Avg -52.0
5.0 32.2 Gold Diff / min -52.1 9.0
4.0 0.5 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -0.8 9.0
3.0 1630.0 Kill Agnostic GPM 1591.6 9.0
4.0 29.5 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -35.9 9.0
8.0 1901.4 GPM in wins 1911.3 6.0
4.0 314.0 Gold Diff per min in wins 307.7 6.0
3.0 1628.7 GPM in losses 1565.3 9.0
3.0 -273.2 Gold Diff per min in losses -315.9 5.0
32.1 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -52.1
8.0 -10.4 Win-Adjusted GPM -0.6 6.0
4.0 9.2 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 2.8 6.0
4.0 51.6 Dragon Control % 61.0 1.0
1.0 66.0 Herald Control % 43.1 8.0
7.0 50.0 Baron Control % 28.1 9.0
7.0 Quality Wins? 6.0
53.8 % of wins as Quality 46.2

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 46.838%
2 1 29.566%
1 2 13.635%
0 2 9.962%
(Series Win): 76.403%

Brion looked like they had cleaned up their early game scripts and that they were going to become a more well-rounded team earlier in the season but they’ve since reverted back to the Spring ways of “sell out for dragons and pray.” Afreeca were a more dominant early game team this season and really all of 2021 but they’ve slowed down a bit since.

The model shows a pretty big edge on Afreeca as favorites and it doesn’t like a lot of favorites this much. The LCK has a lot of parity, with nine out of the ten teams actually posting respectable or outright good performance metrics. To me this is just a stylistic mismatch. You have the number one herald control team vs the number one dragon control team in the LCK and I don’t really think either of these teams is going to suddenly change the way they’re playing to account for the opponent, they’re going to be like two combo decks in a trading card game, two ships passing in the night. I personally prefer the herald snowball in the current metagame and in most metagames but it demands a certain level of execution. I think Afreeca meet that threshold. I actually like Afreeca more than the model in this position.

I really want to play the double narrative of Brion first dragon and AFreeca first herald but they’re each roughly 52% and 50% respectively in the counter so I’m a little squeamish. That said, even factoring opponent strength in these there is still big market edges on both. You don’t want to play all of it because you’re essentially paying vig twice as often as you want to. I’m going to opt for the Brion first dragon as it’s a larger edge on market price slightly.

My Picks:

Moneyline: Afreeca -185 (1.5 units)

Map Spread: Afreeca -1.5 maps @ +167 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 1 Brion first dragon @ +102 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 Brion first dragon @ +102 (1 unit)

 


 

DRX +234 (+1.5 maps @ -154, -1.5 @ +597)

vs

Liiv Sandbox -294 (-1.5 maps @ +121, +1.5 @ -1111)

 

Map Moneyline: DRX +178 / LSB -233

Kill Total: 22.5 (over -125 / under -104)

Kill Spread: +5.5 @ -115 / -5.5 @ -114

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 13.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -108 / under -122)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  +140 / -180 (map), +182 / -223 (series), -188 / +146 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: DRX series moneyline (light)

 

Trends
LSB as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) DRX as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 1 2 -237 Matches as Underdogs 1 8 +290
Against Map Spread 0 3 +93 Against Map Spread 4 5 -78
Against Kill Spread 2 6 3.8 Against Kill Spread 9 13 +6
Kill Totals 4 4 23.50 Kill Totals 11 11 22.94
Team Kill Totals 3 5 13.17 Team Kill Totals 9 13 8.61
Game Time Totals 4 4 33.0 Game Time Totals 9 13 32.33
Dragons over 4.5 4 4 Dragons over 4.5 7 15
Towers over 11.5 5 3 Towers over 11.5 9 12

 

 

League Rank LSB Tale of the Tape DRX League Rank
10.0 -518.7 Gold Diff @ 10 min -265.8 7.0
10.0 -522.3 Gold Diff @ 15 min -165.6 5.0
10.0 -721.9 Gold Diff @ 20 min 683.3 6.0
-3.4 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -21.8
9.0 -22.8 Gold Diff / min first 20 -55.5 10.0
6.0 -38.5 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -501.0 10.0
8.0 1757.9 Gold /min (GPM) 1671.1 10.0
-5.8 Gold / min vs Avg -92.6
8.0 -45.9 Gold Diff / min -209.1 10.0
8.0 -0.7 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -2.9 10.0
6.0 1610.1 Kill Agnostic GPM 1565.3 10.0
8.0 -19.6 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -123.4 10.0
4.0 1923.9 GPM in wins 1836.2 10.0
8.0 269.4 Gold Diff per min in wins 238.4 10.0
7.0 1591.8 GPM in losses 1627.6 4.0
9.0 -361.3 Gold Diff per min in losses -326.9 7.0
-46.0 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -209.2
4.0 12.0 Win-Adjusted GPM -75.7 10.0
8.0 -35.4 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -66.5 10.0
6.0 48.7 Dragon Control % 32.7 10.0
3.0 57.1 Herald Control % 37.0 9.0
6.0 51.4 Baron Control % 19.2 10.0
5.0 Quality Wins? 1.0
55.6 % of wins as Quality 20.0

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 37.664%
2 1 29.098%
1 2 18.316%
0 2 14.922%
(Series Win): 66.762%

 

This is a disgusting matchup to handicap. DRX got off the schneid and picked up their first win of the season in their last match. The new bottom lane looks pretty good so far but this team hasn’t exactly changed their identity, they just happened to pick up a win and unless they completely overhaul and adapt to the times, I’m not buying this team whatsoever.

The thing is Liiv Sandbox’s early games haven’t exactly been stellar and if DRX are just going to hard commit to the scaling looks that they always do then I’m a lot less optimistic about them smashing. This series went to three games in a Sandbox win two weeks ago for that exact reason. Sandbox are very clearly the better team and I think they should win this series but I don’t like this price enough on either side to bet it so I’m going to pass on a side here.

I don’t really see anything worth playing in the derivative markets on this one either. Pass all around.

 

My Picks:

no wagers

 

 


LEC Summer 2021

Week Six – Day One

 

Misfits Gaming -244 vs Excel Esports +187

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -115 / under -114)

Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -112 / +6.5 @ +119

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -108 / under -120)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  MSF -244 / XL +187

Model Suggested Play: none

Trends
MSF as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) XL as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 4 1 -231 Matches as Underdogs 4 5 +252
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 4 1 5.5 Against Kill Spread 7 2 +7
Kill Totals 1 4 25.10 Kill Totals 3 6 25.17
Team Kill Totals 4 1 14.90 Team Kill Totals 5 4 9.17
Game Time Totals 3 2 32.2 Game Time Totals 5 4 31.67
Dragons over 4.5 3 2 Dragons over 4.5 4 5
Towers over 11.5 2 3 Towers over 11.5 6 3
Favorite Underdog
League Rank MSF Tale of the Tape XL League Rank
7.0 38.1 Gold Diff @ 10 min 124.4 5.0
2.0 944.8 Gold Diff @ 15 min -375.4 7.0
5.0 1116.5 Gold Diff @ 20 min -692.3 7.0
21.0 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -81.8
4.0 38.7 Gold Diff / min first 20 -69.3 8.0
4.0 199.6 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -295.7 8.0
5.0 1820.5 Gold /min (GPM) 1679.9 8.0
40.9 Gold / min vs Avg -99.7
4.0 89.2 Gold Diff / min -106.8 7.0
4.0 1.3 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -1.6 7.0
6.0 1613.2 Kill Agnostic GPM 1535.8 9.0
5.0 33.7 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -81.8 7.0
8.0 1888.2 GPM in wins 1868.2 9.0
8.0 245.4 Gold Diff per min in wins 282.8 7.0
2.0 1702.0 GPM in losses 1572.3 10.0
2.0 -184.2 Gold Diff per min in losses -329.5 8.0
89.4 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -106.6
8.0 -36.3 Win-Adjusted GPM -56.3 9.0
8.0 -50.2 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -12.8 7.0
3.0 61.1 Dragon Control % 37.5 9.0
5.0 54.5 Herald Control % 54.5 5.0
6.0 46.7 Baron Control % 46.7 6.0
3.0 Quality Wins? 1.0
42.9 % of wins as Quality 25.0

No plays here. If you have access to first herald for Excel that’s worth a look.

My Wagers:

no wagers


 

SK Gaming +347 vs MAD Lions -500 

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -108 / under -120)

Kill Spread: +8.5 @ -108 / -8.5 @ -125

Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 17.5

Time Total: 30:00 (over -127 / under -102)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  SK +350 / MAD -506

Model Suggested Play: none

 

Trends
MAD as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) SK as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 7 2 -337 Matches as Underdogs 2 9 +215
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 3 6 6.6 Against Kill Spread 6 5 +7
Kill Totals 5 4 26.83 Kill Totals 3 8 25.86
Team Kill Totals 3 6 16.06 Team Kill Totals 5 6 9.59
Game Time Totals 6 3 31.2 Game Time Totals 4 7 31.45
Dragons over 4.5 3 6 Dragons over 4.5 3 8
Towers over 11.5 6 3 Towers over 11.5 4 7

 

 

Favorite Underdog
League Rank MAD Tale of the Tape SK League Rank
4.0 231.7 Gold Diff @ 10 min -814.4 9.0
6.0 153.8 Gold Diff @ 15 min -1410.9 9.0
3.0 -97.4 Gold Diff @ 20 min -1905.0 10.0
43.2 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -64.0
3.0 73.1 Gold Diff / min first 20 -127.9 10.0
3.0 273.3 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -516.6 10.0
3.0 1835.4 Gold /min (GPM) 1665.1 10.0
55.8 Gold / min vs Avg -114.5
3.0 118.2 Gold Diff / min -234.7 10.0
3.0 1.7 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -3.3 10.0
3.0 1634.3 Kill Agnostic GPM 1534.8 10.0
3.0 91.9 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -158.6 10.0
6.0 1925.0 GPM in wins 1949.6 4.0
6.0 307.5 Gold Diff per min in wins 347.8 2.0
3.0 1678.5 GPM in losses 1601.9 8.0
3.0 -213.1 Gold Diff per min in losses -364.2 10.0
118.4 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -234.6
6.0 0.5 Win-Adjusted GPM 25.1 4.0
6.0 11.9 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 52.2 2.0
4.0 55.3 Dragon Control % 45.7 7.0
1.0 63.6 Herald Control % 31.8 9.0
2.0 62.5 Baron Control % 21.4 10.0
3.0 Quality Wins? 1.0
42.9 % of wins as Quality 50.0

 

Similar, this is too rich a price, not much going on in derivatives either.

 

My Wagers:

none

 


 

FC Schalke 04 +277 vs Rogue -385

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -105 / under -123)

Kill Spread: +7.5 @ -115 / -7.5 @ -116

Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 16.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -127 / under -102)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  S04 +336 / ROG -495

Model Suggested Play: none

Trends
ROG as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) S04 as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 8 3 -291 Matches as Underdogs 2 5 +182
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 5 6 5.9 Against Kill Spread 3 4 +6
Kill Totals 5 6 25.95 Kill Totals 2 5 26.50
Team Kill Totals 6 5 15.14 Team Kill Totals 2 5 10.36
Game Time Totals 6 5 31.7 Game Time Totals 3 4 32.29
Dragons over 4.5 6 5 Dragons over 4.5 2 5
Towers over 11.5 7 4 Towers over 11.5 6 1

 

Favorite Underdog
League Rank ROG Tale of the Tape S04 League Rank
3.0 312.5 Gold Diff @ 10 min 22.2 8.0
1.0 1351.5 Gold Diff @ 15 min -1049.9 8.0
2.0 1199.9 Gold Diff @ 20 min -1258.4 8.0
88.2 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -68.6
1.0 134.0 Gold Diff / min first 20 -64.6 7.0
1.0 421.7 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -429.6 9.0
2.0 1866.5 Gold /min (GPM) 1670.8 9.0
86.9 Gold / min vs Avg -108.7
2.0 143.8 Gold Diff / min -179.3 9.0
2.0 2.1 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -2.6 9.0
1.0 1693.3 Kill Agnostic GPM 1542.0 7.0
1.0 134.7 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -99.0 8.0
5.0 1939.6 GPM in wins 1897.3 7.0
5.0 318.8 Gold Diff per min in wins 205.9 9.0
4.0 1671.6 GPM in losses 1585.9 9.0
6.0 -323.0 Gold Diff per min in losses -323.8 7.0
143.9 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -179.1
5.0 15.2 Win-Adjusted GPM -27.2 7.0
5.0 23.2 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -89.7 9.0
6.0 46.9 Dragon Control % 28.3 10.0
4.0 59.1 Herald Control % 63.6 1.0
4.0 56.3 Baron Control % 35.7 9.0
6.0 Quality Wins? 1.0
75.0 % of wins as Quality 33.3

 

Same as last, fair price… turns out market is pretty sharp right now. Best edge here is Rogue first tower but market is close enough, no edge.

My Wagers:

no wagers

 


 

Fnatic -323 vs Astralis +238

 

Kill Total: 28.5 (over -109 / under -120)

Kill Spread: -7.5 @ -109 / +7.5 @ -125

Team Kill Totals: 17.5 / 10.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -145 / under +111)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  FNC -860 / AST +513

Model Suggested Play: Fnatic moneyline

Trends
FNC as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) AST as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 6 2 -259 Matches as Underdogs 4 6 +239
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 4 4 6.1 Against Kill Spread 7 3 +7
Kill Totals 5 3 27.63 Kill Totals 3 7 26.20
Team Kill Totals 5 3 16.38 Team Kill Totals 8 2 9.80
Game Time Totals 4 4 31.8 Game Time Totals 7 3 31.70
Dragons over 4.5 6 2 Dragons over 4.5 6 4
Towers over 11.5 5 3 Towers over 11.5 5 5

 

 

Favorite Underdog
League Rank FNC Tale of the Tape AST League Rank
1.0 1569.0 Gold Diff @ 10 min -876.4 10.0
3.0 762.7 Gold Diff @ 15 min -1835.4 10.0
1.0 274.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min -1746.8 9.0
85.5 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -63.6
2.0 87.2 Gold Diff / min first 20 -107.5 9.0
2.0 419.9 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -17.8 7.0
1.0 1926.2 Gold /min (GPM) 1707.5 7.0
146.7 Gold / min vs Avg -72.1
1.0 197.1 Gold Diff / min -118.0 8.0
1.0 2.7 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -1.7 8.0
2.0 1671.1 Kill Agnostic GPM 1538.6 8.0
2.0 125.6 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -100.7 9.0
2.0 1982.7 GPM in wins 1827.0 10.0
4.0 328.0 Gold Diff per min in wins 126.7 10.0
1.0 1775.8 GPM in losses 1607.9 7.0
1.0 -152.0 Gold Diff per min in losses -322.0 5.0
197.3 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -117.8
2.0 58.2 Win-Adjusted GPM -97.5 10.0
4.0 32.4 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -168.9 10.0
1.0 66.0 Dragon Control % 39.3 8.0
3.0 61.9 Herald Control % 45.5 8.0
1.0 80.0 Baron Control % 38.9 8.0
4.0 Quality Wins? 0.0
50.0 % of wins as Quality 0.0

 

Fnatic should be larger favorites here. Astralis tend to be feisted underdogs but this is still a fundamentally flawed team. I’ll play Fnatic.

 

My Wagers:

Moneyline: Fnatic -323 (1 unit)

 


 

Team Vitality +152 vs G2 Esports -196

 

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -115 / under -114)

Kill Spread: +6.5 @ -110 / -6.5 @ -112

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 15.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -104 under -125)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  VIT -103 / G2 -123

Model Suggested Play: Vitality moneyline

Trends
G2 as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) VIT as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 4 5 -319 Matches as Underdogs 2 3 +150
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 1 8 6.5 Against Kill Spread 3 2 +5
Kill Totals 3 6 27.61 Kill Totals 4 1 27.10
Team Kill Totals 2 7 16.50 Team Kill Totals 4 1 11.10
Game Time Totals 4 5 31.6 Game Time Totals 2 3 32.00
Dragons over 4.5 3 6 Dragons over 4.5 3 2
Towers over 11.5 5 4 Towers over 11.5 2 3

 

 

Favorite Underdog
League Rank G2 Tale of the Tape VIT League Rank
2.0 699.9 Gold Diff @ 10 min 93.8 6.0
4.0 688.8 Gold Diff @ 15 min 192.2 5.0
4.0 525.4 Gold Diff @ 20 min 35.1 6.0
19.6 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 20.5
6.0 12.4 Gold Diff / min first 20 14.4 5.0
5.0 72.9 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 22.7 6.0
4.0 1828.2 Gold /min (GPM) 1795.7 6.0
48.6 Gold / min vs Avg 16.1
5.0 72.9 Gold Diff / min 16.1 6.0
5.0 0.9 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 0.3 6.0
4.0 1631.8 Kill Agnostic GPM 1617.4 5.0
4.0 51.8 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 32.8 6.0
3.0 1981.0 GPM in wins 1986.1 1.0
3.0 328.3 Gold Diff per min in wins 464.8 1.0
5.0 1644.9 GPM in losses 1637.1 6.0
4.0 -233.7 Gold Diff per min in losses -357.8 9.0
73.0 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 16.3
3.0 56.5 Win-Adjusted GPM 61.6 1.0
3.0 32.7 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 169.2 1.0
2.0 64.4 Dragon Control % 55.3 4.0
10.0 20.0 Herald Control % 47.6 7.0
3.0 61.5 Baron Control % 53.8 5.0
4.0 Quality Wins? 4.0
66.7 % of wins as Quality 80.0

 

Should be an even money series based on performance. Both teams have been a little feast or famine so nothing would really surprise me here though. Under was also flagged.

 

My Wagers:

Moneyline: Vitality +152 (1 unit)

Kill Total (alt): UNDER 25.5 @ +108 (0.5 units)

 


LCS Summer 2021

Week Seven – Day One

 

 

LCS Power #s After Week 6
Team Power # Rank
100T 1.23623291 1
EG 1.09187492 2
TSM 0.5445614282 3
TL 0.3075708915 4
C9 0.07458996088 5
GGS 0.006141283513 6
IMT -0.1092791596 7
DIG -0.7168877212 8
CLG -1.139080758 9
FLY -1.257783035 10

 

 

 

 

Cloud 9 -270 vs Immortals +202

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -105 / under -123)

Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -120 / +6.5 @ -109

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 8.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -132 / under +102)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  C9 -131 / IMT +102

Model Suggested Play: Immortals moneyline

Trends
C9 as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) IMT as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 9 8 -339 Matches as Underdogs 2 7 +168
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 7 10 6.0 Against Kill Spread 4 5 +5
Kill Totals 6 11 24.56 Kill Totals 4 5 23.61
Team Kill Totals 7 10 14.68 Team Kill Totals 4 5 9.39
Game Time Totals 10 7 31.1 Game Time Totals 6 3 31.67
Dragons over 4.5 10 7 Dragons over 4.5 6 3
Towers over 11.5 10 7 Towers over 11.5 5 4

 

Favorite Underdog
League Rank C9 Tale of the Tape IMT League Rank
5 -82.3 Gold Diff @ 10 min 133.4 4
6 -35.2 Gold Diff @ 15 min 442.5 4
3 339.6 Gold Diff @ 20 min -333.8 7
19.7 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 19.1
3 45.0 Gold Diff / min first 20 -24.8 7
2 229.4 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 24.7 6
2 1871.5 Gold /min (GPM) 1766.8 6
90.3 Gold / min vs Avg -14.5
3 76.2 Gold Diff / min -24.9 6
4 1.0 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -0.4 6
2 1685.1 Kill Agnostic GPM 1591.4 7
3 49.1 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -31.1 6
3 1636.0 Opp Kill Agnostic GPM 1622.5 6
1 2118.6 GPM in wins 1956.3 3
1 415.6 Gold Diff per min in wins 333.8 4
4 1624.4 GPM in losses 1615.1 5
2 -263.2 Gold Diff per min in losses -311.9 5
80.6 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -20.5
1 175.0 Win-Adjusted GPM 12.8 3
1 105.1 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 23.3 4
7 47.0 Dragon Control % 48.8 6
5 47.2 Herald Control % 44.4 7
6 44.0 Baron Control % 48.0 5
7.0 Quality Wins? 5.0
77.8 % of wins as Quality 62.5

Immortals were continuing their improving trajectory for most of the Summer season but the last week or so has been a little shaky so a lot of this handicap comes down to whether or not you think this is starting to come crashing down or it was just a speed bump. I happen to think it’s the latter so it’s pretty tough to ignore the value on Immortals here.

On the other side of this matchup, you could say similar things about Cloud 9. Their underlying metrics suggest a team that is still doing a lot of things correctly but they just can’t seem to piece it all together in some of their games. I don’t know if the roster swaps just threw things for a loop or if they’re just coasting because they don’t care about anything until playoffs which I suspect might be the case, but it’s tough to really evaluate Cloud 9 right now. They could easily stomp someone or look terrible and neither result would surprise me.

I think you just have to take the underdogs here but there are actually a number of options that were flagged by the model in this match.

Kill Total unders are intriguing if you think this is going to be more lopsided in favor of Cloud 9. Only 33% of their games have gone over the 24.5 number although my projections have this at 25.66 kills. I also like OVER 4.5 dragons at +109 quite a bit and that’s where I’m going to be going in this one. Only 51.11% of games in the LCS Summer split have gone over 4.5 dragons but these two teams go over that number 61.11% of the time each. I think this could be a competitive match so I’ll be playing Immortals and the OVER.

 

My Wagers:

Moneyline: Immortals +202 (1 unit)

Prop: OVER 4.5 dragons @ +109 (1 unit)

 


 

FlyQuest +153 vs Team Solo Mid -200

 

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -119 / under -110)

Kill Spread: +5.5 @ -105 / -5.5 @ -123

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 14.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over +100 / under -130)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  FLY +339 / TSM -486

Model Suggested Play: TSM moneyline

Trends
TSM as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) FLY as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 9 5 -275 Matches as Underdogs 6 10 +178
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 4 10 5.7 Against Kill Spread 8 8 +6
Kill Totals 4 10 24.29 Kill Totals 7 9 24.88
Team Kill Totals 4 10 14.29 Team Kill Totals 8 8 9.63
Game Time Totals 6 8 32.1 Game Time Totals 7 9 31.69
Dragons over 4.5 5 9 Dragons over 4.5 9 7
Towers over 11.5 7 7 Towers over 11.5 11 5

 

 

Favorite Underdog
League Rank TSM Tale of the Tape FLY League Rank
3 430.9 Gold Diff @ 10 min -94.6 6
5 39.4 Gold Diff @ 15 min -1097.8 9
5 -20.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min -1099.4 10
-16.4 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -50.3
4 14.9 Gold Diff / min first 20 -91.7 10
5 109.2 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -434.1 10
7 1752.0 Gold /min (GPM) 1667.1 10
-29.2 Gold / min vs Avg -114.1
5 37.4 Gold Diff / min -182.1 10
5 0.5 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -2.6 10
6 1597.3 Kill Agnostic GPM 1527.8 10
5 28.8 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -102.9 10
9 1568.5 Opp Kill Agnostic GPM 1630.7 5
10 1848.7 GPM in wins 1864.5 9
9 218.1 Gold Diff per min in wins 203.1 10
8 1577.5 GPM in losses 1568.4 9
4 -303.6 Gold Diff per min in losses -374.7 9
41.8 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -177.7
10 -94.8 Win-Adjusted GPM -79.1 9
9 -92.5 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -107.5 10
5 52.9 Dragon Control % 37.5 10
2 62.9 Herald Control % 42.4 8
1 69.2 Baron Control % 42.3 7
5.0 Quality Wins? 4.0
41.7 % of wins as Quality 66.7

The FlyQuest Academy team came up and opened their season with a 3-0 weekend which was impressive no doubt so you have to keep that in mind when looking at these numbers that this is more or less a new team.

The thing is, when you have these sort of situations nine times out of ten there’s a complete crash back to reality and it’s often right away. Teams have more time to study the film on the new people, talk to their academy teams to get the scoop, etc.

TSM are almost definitely not as good as their record but their performance metrics continue to improve week over week so they’re a bit of a conundrum. They’re a very sound fundamental team they’re just not blowing teams out of the water like EG or 100 Thieves have been doing recently. They just grind games out.

This seems like a hefty price to pay given that fact but I think the veterans are going to take care of business here and I’ll be on the TSM side.

My Wagers:

Moneyline: TSM -200 (1 unit)

 


 

100 Thieves -385 vs Dignitas +278

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -118 / under -111)

Kill Spread: -7.5 @ -109 / +7.5 @ -120

Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 8.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over +101 / under -132)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  100T -602 / DIG +398

Model Suggested Play: 100T moneyline

 

Trends
100T as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) DIG as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 11 4 -315 Matches as Underdogs 3 10 +137
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 8 7 6.2 Against Kill Spread 7 6 +5
Kill Totals 6 9 24.50 Kill Totals 5 8 25.19
Team Kill Totals 6 9 14.63 Team Kill Totals 5 8 10.19
Game Time Totals 6 9 31.9 Game Time Totals 6 7 31.77
Dragons over 4.5 6 9 Dragons over 4.5 4 9
Towers over 11.5 9 6 Towers over 11.5 5 8

 

 

League Rank 100T Tale of the Tape DIG League Rank
2 493.5 Gold Diff @ 10 min -640.8 10
1 1144.0 Gold Diff @ 15 min -196.2 7
1 1626.8 Gold Diff @ 20 min -15.9 8
55.2 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -13.9
1 124.6 Gold Diff / min first 20 -37.3 8
1 346.3 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -266.7 8
3 1829.1 Gold /min (GPM) 1711.2 8
47.9 Gold / min vs Avg -70.0
1 181.8 Gold Diff / min -98.8 8
1 2.5 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -1.4 8
3 1629.8 Kill Agnostic GPM 1538.1 9
1 114.8 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -94.4 8
10 1515.0 Opp Kill Agnostic GPM 1632.6 4
6 1906.8 GPM in wins 1893.5 8
3 345.9 Gold Diff per min in wins 294.2 7
10 1557.5 GPM in losses 1595.1 6
10 -392.6 Gold Diff per min in losses -348.9 8
186.2 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -94.4
6 -36.8 Win-Adjusted GPM -50.0 8
3 35.4 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -16.3 7
2 60.8 Dragon Control % 42.9 8
6 45.2 Herald Control % 54.3 4
2 66.7 Baron Control % 35.0 10
10.0 Quality Wins? 3.0
71.4 % of wins as Quality 42.9

I’m not letting the 1-2 weekend from 100 Thieves last week really impact my handicap on them too much especially because the Evil Geniuses loss wasn’t that crazy an upset or anything with how well they’ve been playing. I think a lot of people are going to point to that GGS loss and it’ll stick in their head but it’s one map. Don’t fret.

Dignitas don’t seem content to just roll over and probably want to play themselves back into shape, especially because they’re still in playoffs. With that said, they really haven’t performed all that well as underdogs or really at all this season outside of a few games. I also think their poor early game is going to be a problem against 100T’s blazing fast starts.

The biggest edge on a market I have in this contest is Dignitas first herald at +122. Their 61.11% first rate against 100T’s 44.44% makes that bet make a ton of sense but I have a really hard time seeing Dignitas consistently winning this one so I’m a little less bullish on that than the model is. I’ll still be playing it though.

 

My Wagers:

Prop: Dignitas first herald @ +122 (1 unit)

 


 

Counter Logic Gaming +252 vs Team Liquid -345

 

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -116 / under -112)

Kill Spread: +7.5 @ -125 / -7.5 @ -104

Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 14.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -143 / under +110)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  CLG +254 / TL -348

Model Suggested Play: none

 

Trends
TL as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) CLG as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 10 4 -275 Matches as Underdogs 3 10 +145
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 8 6 5.9 Against Kill Spread 4 9 +5
Kill Totals 6 8 24.50 Kill Totals 6 7 24.65
Team Kill Totals 9 5 14.50 Team Kill Totals 4 9 9.73
Game Time Totals 10 4 31.6 Game Time Totals 8 5 31.77
Dragons over 4.5 7 7 Dragons over 4.5 9 4
Towers over 11.5 6 8 Towers over 11.5 7 6

 

 

League Rank TL Tale of the Tape CLG League Rank
8 -360.8 Gold Diff @ 10 min -627.4 9
8 -305.9 Gold Diff @ 15 min -1179.7 10
4 -670.6 Gold Diff @ 20 min -1895.1 9
-1.1 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -52.0
5 6.6 Gold Diff / min first 20 -57.0 9
3 204.8 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -321.3 9
4 1805.1 Gold /min (GPM) 1678.7 9
23.9 Gold / min vs Avg -102.5
4 75.3 Gold Diff / min -154.9 9
3 1.1 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -2.2 9
4 1626.1 Kill Agnostic GPM 1542.7 8
4 40.1 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -99.9 9
8 1585.9 Opp Kill Agnostic GPM 1642.7 2
4 1936.0 GPM in wins 1921.6 5
2 362.0 Gold Diff per min in wins 319.0 6
2 1641.6 GPM in losses 1585.2 7
3 -283.0 Gold Diff per min in losses -337.2 6
79.7 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -150.5
4 -7.6 Win-Adjusted GPM -21.9 5
2 51.4 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 8.4 6
4 54.0 Dragon Control % 38.6 9
9 39.4 Herald Control % 37.1 10
3 56.5 Baron Control % 42.3 7
7.0 Quality Wins? 4.0
70.0 % of wins as Quality 80.0

This is an ugly one.

Liquid are still a good team even with everything going on behind the scenes because they have strong veterans and overall excellent players regardless of who is starting in a given match. They have also maintained a clear identity for themselves throughout all of this. Liquid might actually be the third best team in the league right now which is a little weird given the circumstances but don’t sleep on this team because of all the other stuff.

CLG on the other hand are a complete enigma. It seems like they pick games and just show up well before immediately turning back into a pumpkin shortly afterwards. This inconsistency has been their biggest problem.

I think stylistically this is a great matchup for Liquid. CLG haven’t been one to jump out to leads on anybody in fact it’s been quite the opposite. This is going to be a slower paced game and I’ll take Liquid in those situations every time. As you’d imagine, one of my favorite plays in this contest is the time total over even with the juice at -143 it’s still showing an edge on the market price but even better than that is the over dragons at +131 which is my preferred wager here.

 

My Wagers:

Prop: OVER 4.5 dragons @ +131 (1 unit)

 


 

Golden Guardians +197 vs Evil Geniuses -263

 

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -123 / under -105)

Kill Spread: +6.5 @ -109 / -6.5 @ -120

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 16.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -128 / under -101)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  GGS +184 / EG -244

Model Suggested Play: none

 

Trends
EG as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) GGS as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 6 3 -201 Matches as Underdogs 7 11 +252
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 4 5 5.7 Against Kill Spread 12 6 +7
Kill Totals 8 1 26.06 Kill Totals 12 6 24.72
Team Kill Totals 7 2 14.83 Team Kill Totals 13 5 8.83
Game Time Totals 5 4 31.8 Game Time Totals 9 9 31.17
Dragons over 4.5 6 3 Dragons over 4.5 7 11
Towers over 11.5 6 3 Towers over 11.5 12 6

 

League Rank EG Tale of the Tape GGS League Rank
1 545.7 Gold Diff @ 10 min -236.9 7
2 999.6 Gold Diff @ 15 min 503.3 3
2 1477.5 Gold Diff @ 20 min 1121.0 6
41.1 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -1.4
2 90.0 Gold Diff / min first 20 -18.7 6
4 144.3 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -34.3 7
1 1932.2 Gold /min (GPM) 1798.3 5
151.0 Gold / min vs Avg 17.1
2 144.3 Gold Diff / min -98.4 7
2 2.1 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -1.2 7
1 1710.8 Kill Agnostic GPM 1623.5 5
2 91.6 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -42.2 7
7 1619.3 Opp Kill Agnostic GPM 1665.8 1
2 2082.7 GPM in wins 1906.7 7
5 323.8 Gold Diff per min in wins 289.9 8
3 1631.1 GPM in losses 1729.3 1
1 -214.7 Gold Diff per min in losses -345.5 7
148.7 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -94.0
2 139.2 Win-Adjusted GPM -36.8 7
5 13.3 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -20.6 8
3 54.7 Dragon Control % 63.6 1
1 63.9 Herald Control % 58.8 3
4 55.6 Baron Control % 39.1 9
7.0 Quality Wins? 2.0
58.3 % of wins as Quality 28.6

 

I make this number roughly on market. Golden Guardians have quietly been a playoff caliber team in the LCS which is absolutely hilarious but hey, sometimes it just takes time to improve. Ablazeolive has been having an excellent Summer with a handful of hard carry games which helps.

For a team with the identity that most people prescribe to them, Evil Geniuses have one of the best kill agnostic economies not just in the LCS but the entire world which is, quite frankly, a little shocking. This team is legitimately good. (Keep in mind these numbers are a blend of season long and trending performance).

There aren’t really any plays I particularly like in this contest so I’ll be passing it. If I had to make a wager it’d be GGS first herald at +126 but EG have been picking that up at a 72.2% clip so I’ll just pass.

 

My Wagers:

no wagers

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and you can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

 

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