Thursday, January 27th Recap

 

DRX vs KT Rolster  (Net: +4.15 units)

We got to see the mid lane Nocturne in this one, a pick that pops up from time to time usually as a Twisted Fate counter. This time we saw it against Azir. It can be decent for awhile against most control mages but once they’re able to afford a luxury stopwatch or just get to Zhonya’s outright it takes away a lot of the potency. Azir can also just ult you away if you have to spellshield anything else. Either way, they needed a physical damage threat in the mid lane to go with Rumble and Lillia and with Renekton, Lucian, and Pantheon all banned (ironically by DRX), there were slim pickings remaining. Frankly this was a pretty big draft gap and KT Rolster knew it. They had no reason to take any early skirmishes, so they mostly didn’t and when they did didn’t allow DRX to get much off of it. The gold stayed within around a 2000ish window and KT were able to scale this out, picking up every single dragon to ice the game.

Game two it looked almost like KT were throwing after botching an engage at the third dragon. This put the gold lead in DRX’s favor but they threw it right back after trying to turn fourth drake  directly into baron, not killing it fast enough and allowing UCal to teleport back for the 3-0 fight. KT would get a few towers off of it and even the gold up. DRX tried to counterpunch by grouping 4 mid with SOLKA’s Orianna in the top lane. SOLKA was solo killed by UCal’s Viktor. Eventually what this came down to was that KT were at the fifth dragon first, set up vision, and set up a nambush that would eventually ace DRX and ice the game.

It wasn’t quite as clean as I’d anticipated and we got a bit of a gift in the first game with the draft mistake by DRX but we’ll take it. KT Rolster played these games intelligently. Other than that weird botched engage in game two they were in a pretty good position for most of this series even though they never really had huge gold leads. They grinded this out like veterans.

T1 vs Liiv Sandbox  (Net: -3.2 units)

T1 desperately tried to lose two completely un-loseable games in this series and it’s beginning to concern me. The pattern, so far anyway, has been that when Clozer is in the lineup, T1 are a much looser, wilder team. They play significantly more aggressive, sometimes to a fault, and Clozer specifically gets tunnelvision (so did Gumayusi in the last series). With Faker in the lineup they seem like a much more disciplined and controlled team. It remains to be seen if this is going to be how this goes long term but it’s definitely something to monitor for kill total and upset purposes with T1 moving forward. We got to see the return of Teddy and he was excellent in this series.

Sandbox… oof I feel really bad for Summit who is playing out of his mind right now. The past two series he’s tried desperately to put his team on his back but they’ve started games way too far behind through some goofy mistakes and they end up having to dig themselves out of a huge hole. They nearly did in both of these games against astronomical odds. T1 definitely tried to throw this back almost like Tom Brady in the second half last week against Green Bay.

I really do think Sandbox are going to be good they just can’t seem to catch a break right now and they need to clean up the early mistakes. As far as T1 goes, we’ll have to see if this is a continuing trend with the different lineups.

OMG vs Suning (Net: -0.85 units)

Not much to say on this one. I praised OMG for their fairly intelligent play despite being outclassed in most games and they immediately showed up with this incredibly stupid performance. Stupid is the word. So many stupid mistakes.

I don’t think I’ve ever seen an 11-0 Azir with a penta that had almost all of his teams kills or anything remotely like that in my decade of playing and watching this game. The only time you see stat lines like that are with good players playing on new accounts and demolishing newbies. Angel went berserk in this one.

BiliBili vs LGD (Net: +3.25 units)

LGD are going to have a rough season. BiliBili outclassed them across the board in this series and there’s really not much else to say. I think the “LGD are better than I thought they’d be but relative to terrible what does that mean” concept applies here.

 

LPL Net Total: +2.4 units

LCK Net Total: +4.15 units

 

Daily Net Total: +6.55 units

 


LOL Pro League (China)

Week 4 – Day 5

 

 

eStar Pro +227 (+1.5 maps @ -139, -1.5 @ +597)

vs

LNG Esports -303 (-1.5 maps @ +110, +1.5 @ -1111)

 

Total Maps Played: 2.5 (over +119 / under -152)

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -122 / under -108)

Kill Spread: +7.5 @ -124 / -7.5 @ -107

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 15.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -119 / under -110)

Starting Lineups:

(Individual player model positional ranking in paranthesis, living number)

EST – Zs (18), H4cker (11), Irma (1*), Rat (18), ShiauC (1)

LNG – M1kuya (7), Tarzan (3), Icon (10), Light (14), Iwandy (2)

*  Irma has performed solidly but part of the catch with models like this is that you need to figure out if it meets the eye test to you as well. Irma grades extremely high in kill participation, gold and XP differentials at 15 minutes, and in the top half in the vision captions but his overall economy is only slightly above average and his damage efficiency (damage per gold per minute) is below average. He’s so overwhelmingly exceptional in the lesser weighted categories that it’s boosting his stock quite a bit more than meets the eye test. He’s NOT the best mid laner in the league. This will bare out over time.

ShiauC seems to be able to almost singlehandedly beat bad teams but there’s just not enough else going on with this roster to be too optimistic about. eStar might be worth a look against the truly bad teams in the league as I do think they’re likely better than the LGD’s and TT’s of the world but other than that they aren’t definitively better than anyone. With the most wins of that bunch they’re likely to be overpriced in those situations as well. eStar are more or less going to be un-bettable for awhile.

LNG have been quite good to start the season but as I discussed on this week’s Gold Card Podcast, I’m not entirely buying them yet. They’ve had a few wins spoon fed to them through unforced errors and generally haven’t been doing that much to engineer their own advantages. I have similar criticisms for them that I did for Summer Team WE. If they’re just going to sit and wait for opponents to screw up this is the league to do it in and they’ll go pretty far doing that. That said, I do think this team has been eerily steady and that wasn’t how I anticipated this roster to operate going into the season. They were the team with the widest range of outcomes and typically those types of teams are highly volatile. LNG haven’t been…. at least not yet and that’s what concerns me.

We’re going to have spots to fade LNG in the coming weeks but this isn’t the spot to do it.

This is a stay away from me. I’m just a little bit too skeptical about LNG to back them at this price point. Had I been in earlier in the week I could justify the -273 opener but I’ve lost enough value. If I absolutely had to pick a side that’s where I’d be.

Other Markets:

 

 

The under is definitely the first place I looked here but at 24.5 it’s much more in line with where I expected it to be. eStar have been losing or winning rather quickly this year and the time total feels really obvious but LNG have also been a more “slow-and-steady” looking team preferring to let their opponents beat themselves. In situations like that I’m not a fan of time unders.

I like the LNG team kill total under 15.5. There’s a chance eStar try to force the issue and make this a bloody series like the one they played against FPX but for the most part I see this probably ending up in a 13-5 type of game.

 

My Picks:

 

Kill Total (team): Map 1 LNG UNDER 15.5 kills @ -108 (0.54 units)

Kill Total (team): Map 2 LNG UNDER 15.5 kills @ -108 (0.54 units)

Kill Total (team): Map 3 LNG UNDER 15.5 kills @ -108 (0.54 units)

 


Team WE -182 (-1.5 maps @ +192, +1.5 @ -667)

vs

Royal Never Give Up +142 (+1.5 maps @ -250, -1.5 @ +416)

 

Total Maps Played: 2.5 (over -116 / under -110)

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -110 / under -119)

Kill Spread: -4.5 @ -109 / +4.5 @ -120

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 11.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -105 / under -123)

Starting Lineups:

(Individual player model positional ranking in paranthesis, living number)

WE – Breathe (6), Beishang (12), Shanks (2), Jiumeng (8), Missing (15)

RNG – Xiaohu (12), Wei (2), Cryin (7), GALA (10), Missing (10)

Both of these teams are excellent and look like they’re a sure thing to be in the playoffs. They’re two of the “adults in the room” as I’ve been calling them meaning that they’re teams that actually play smart instead of instictually. We have more of those than usual in the LPL this year.

I have these two teams as relatively evenly matched but Team WE are much more polished at the moment. RNG might be able to just “out macro” most teams in this league when things get a little wild and crazy or if Xiaohu is on an off-meta pick but they’re going to have a harder time pulling that off against the good teams. Team WE are one of those.

Typically, with two evenly matched teams where one is getting a nice underdog price it feels easy to jump on but I’m going to be passing on a side in this one. I could see any number of things happening in this match but given the current form for both of these lineups I think this is a fair number. It’s worth mentioning that you could have had RNG at a better price yesterday in the +165 range. “Value dogs” that have lost value are just dead bets most of the time.

This should be a fun one. Getcho’ popcorn ready!

Other Markets:

 

 

Given the wide range of outcomes I could see in this series it’s tough to like many of the derivative markets either. By my numbers the best option would be the time total under 33:00 but I could see this being a real slobberknocker of a series with a lot of running around the map and improvising as RNG try to solve the puzzle on the fly.

 

My Picks:

 

No plays

 


 

LOL Champions Korea

Week 3 – Day 3

 

 

 Nongshim RedForce -182 (-1.5 maps @ +167, +1.5 @ -625)

vs

Afreeca Freecs +150 (+1.5 maps @ -217, -1.5 @ +400)

 

Total Maps Played: 2.5 (over +104 / under -132)

Kill Total: 22.5 (over -109 / under -120)

Kill Spread: -3.5 @ -123 / +3.5 @ -105

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -118 / under -111)

Nongshim are the poster children for early season overreactions. Everyone had pre-season optimism for this team and that quickly vanished but they finally look good in a series and everyone piles back on the train? Questionable… Afreeca have had their ups and downs as well this season. Like much of the middle of the table in the LCK, both of these teams have had a wide range of outcomes so far.

I think Afreeca have better players top-to-bottom and Bay still hasn’t done anything to change my mind about him being the worst player in the LCK through two weeks. They’ve been incredibly frustrating this season. Afreeca have put a bigger dent in my bankroll than anybody else this season but they’re the play here. Even if you downgrade them substantially, Nongshim haven’t done anything to prove that they deserve to be favorites this large. It’s that simple.

Other Markets:

 

 

Both of these teams still be trying to figure out their identity so it’s been rather difficult to figure out how they’re approaching things. Historically, Peanut led teams like to get things started early and snowball but that hasn’t been the case for the most part with Nongshim.

I’d lean to the unders but 22.5 is fair and I could easily see this series devolving into a bit of a bar fight. I’ll stick to just my Afreeca position.

 

My Picks:

 

Map Spread: Afreeca +1.5 maps @ -217 (2.17 units)

Moneyline: Afreeca +150 (1 units)

Map Spread: Afreeca -1.5 maps @ +400 (0.5 units)

 


DAMWON Kia Gaming -233 (-1.5 maps @ +131, +1.5 @ -1250)

vs

Hanwha Life Esports +187 (+1.5 maps @ -172, -1.5 @ +644)

 

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over -102 / under -125)

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -120 / under -109)

Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -109 / +6.5 @ -120

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -104 / under -125)

There’s always this strange phenomenon that happens when an all-time great has any sort of fall from grace or sign of mortality. DAMWON lost their first series to a sub-elite team since April in the upset against Brion. DAMWON have dropped games to T1 and Gen.G as well, and one could argue that probably should have lost the series outright to T1.

“IT’S GOT TO BE KHAN!”

“THEY NEED NUGURI, THE SYNERGY!!”

“KKOMA HAS RUINED THIS TEAM”

Some familiar cries this week. I’m here to tell everyone to STOP overreacting.

DAMWON still have the best kill-agnostic economy in the world even with four game losses in their first twelve and they’ve faced T1 and Gen.G. They lead the four majors in CS per minute as a team, #2 in gold differential per minute in the Eastern leagues, and  still have one of these best gold differentials at 15 minutes in the world and that’s with first blood only happening in one third of their games so far.

Let’s make one thing clear… DAMWON haven’t fallen from grace. They aren’t about to go on some massive down trend. They lost a few games, two of them to extremely competitive teams, and the Brion boys played out of their minds in a nearly immaculate series where DAMWON drafted themselves into a corner in both games.

That’s what it takes to beat this team. Near perfection.

Admittedly I’m still a little skeptical on Hanwha but even I am slowly coming around. I still have concerns about Vsta and the top lane and while Arthur has hit a bit of a stride here, he had some questionable decisions in his first few series. Hanwha are very good but I don’t know if I’m going to include them just because of one match win against an elite team. Let’s not forget, this is a team that struggle mightily with DRX just 12 days ago.

On the Gold Card Podcast last night we talked a lot about this series and how, my initial gut reaction was that I’d probably pass and that it looked like Hanwha or nothing but the more I’m rewatching some of this DAMWON film and looking at the underlying numbers for both of these teams, the more I’m asking myself what the hell I’m thinking about.

DAMWON are going to smash this series. This is a big brother-little brother situation. The overreaction to looking mortal is being way overblown and even though Hanwha have looked pretty good themselves I’m not putting them in a tier with the big boys just yet.

Other Markets:

 

 

Hanwha have been exceedingly bloody this season in large part due to some questionable decisions in the top, jungle, and support positions putting them in situations where they’ve got to delay what they were doing and reset or commit to the fight. They often choose to commit.

DAMWON have been the opposite. A typical Kkoma team. Focused, disciplined, and clean but not without pace to their game. DAMWON are still doing many of the things they did last season even if the kill scores don’t show it.

I like the under here. Unders hit at over a 70% clip in matches between the top four teams in the LCK over this season and last season. Historically that’s not far off from what we’ve seen over the past half decade.

 

My Picks:

 

Moneyline: DAMWON -233 (2.33 units)

Map Spread: DAMWON -1.5 maps @ +131 (0.5 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 UNDER 23.5 @ -109 (1.09 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 UNDER 23.5 @ -109 (1.09 units)

Kill Total: Map 3 UNDER 23.5 @ -109 (1.09 units)

 


League of Legends European Championship

Week 2 – Day 1

 

 

Early on I’m not going to have many positions in the LEC unless I see something I think is severely mispriced and/or as a response to overreaction in the line movement. There are still a lot of questions about these teams and I want to have a stronger grasp through film review on who they are, who they want to be, and how that matches up against others before making more definitive calls.

Excel Esports +135 vs MAD Lions -169

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -119 / under -110)

Kill Spread: +3.5 @ -105 / -3.5 @ -123

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 10.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -118 / under -111)

Excel came out with a curveball for week one. Ivern top is a pick that’s been gaining steam behind the scenes but they were the first to bust it out. Unfortunately that opened the season with the very sharp Rogue and competitive FC Schalke who they took down. On Sunday they faced G2. I was very bullish on Excel’s outlook for the season and while I didn’t expect this type of “cheese” to come out, I don’t hold it against them in any way. It’s a strong strategy, that’s very difficult to execute and if they had the confidnece to run it against the tough week one schedule I have a certain amount of respect for that.

MAD Lions looked solid despite the two losses on opening weekend. It looks like Armut and Elyoya are going to have no problem playing at this level and remained efficient and composed even in the losses.

On the podcast this week I thought that this line looked fair but with more time to look into it and think about it I like position on Excel. I think the middle of the table in the LEC is going to be extremely competitive and it’s still early enough in the season that I’m not backing any favorite that doesn’t look to be in mid-season form already. I think these two teams are more or less evenly matched, at least for now.

My Picks:

Moneyline: Excel +135 (0.5 units)

 


SK Gaming +117 vs FC Schalke 04  -149

 

Kill Total: 21.5 (over -112 / under -116)

Kill Spread: +3.5 @ -116 / -3.5 @ -112

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 11.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -128 / under -102)

SK looked a little sharper than I had anticipated in their opener but, as we’ve discussed very often heading into the season, we often see the heavy underdogs exceed expectation for a few reasons. First, this is about as evenly prepared for games as it gets. Over the course of the season the more versatile and talented teams stand the test of time while we see weaker teams struggle. Every so often you’ll have a “grower,” a team that improves steadily as the course of the season goes on but more often than not they’ll look good to start and then fall back down once the good teams figure them out. I get the feeling that that’s what will happen with SK Gaming.

You could just as easily make a similar case against Schalke but I think they’ve got significantly stronger horses in this race. They’ve also got a lot of continuity from last season. People are overreacting to a few weird games from the opening weekend and while there were plenty of things to be critical of in those games, it’s also tough to judge a team in those extreme late game scenarios. I’m giving them a pass.

Schalke are one of the few favorites I like this week but I like the kill total over even more here. 21.5 is extremely low no matter what region you’re looking at. Kill total unders hit at a 60% clip in week one but the average kill total was also 25.7 kills. I’ll be taking a position on the Schalke team total over.

My Picks:

Kill Total (team): Schalke OVER 11.5 kills @ -112 (1.12 units)

 


Astralis +647 vs G2 Esports -1250

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -114 / under -115)

Kill Spread: +10.5 @ -123 / -10.5 @ -105

Team Kill Totals: 7.5 / 17.5

Time Total: 30:00 (over -125 / under -104)

I had my concerns for whether or not G2 would hit the ground running but they looked sharp in week one. Astralis, to keep it simple, did not. I was more optimistic on this Astralis team than my peers but it wasn’t exactly an emphatic endorsement either. G2 should roll here. I’m not sure how this version of the team will operate without Perkz in terms of motivation. What I’m referencing is that G2 have a history of goofing off in these types of situations and that could mean a ridiculous 40 kill game where they get behind early with a weird bottom lane or it could mean they play a dedicated split push comp and try to play the map to victory. Sometimes these strategies look polished, other times they don’t.

If I had to make a play on this it’d be G2 team kill total under or Astralist +10.5 kills but as it stands I’m just going to pass.

My Picks:

no plays

 


Rogue -256 vs Misfits +190

Kill Total: 22.5 (over -115 / under -114)

Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -105 / +6.5 @ -123

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 8.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -118 / under -111)

I’m a bit of a Rogue bull and it’s driving me absolutely insane how many people still mischaracterize this team. Watch the games, this isn’t a “slow and steady wins the race” scaling team. They play fast. They had the best early game in the LEC by a country mile in Summer and people just kept talking about Larssen on control mages…. anyway, I digress.

Misfits looked pretty good. Vetheo had an excellent debut, albeit not quite as good as the “hype” highlight reel plays everyone is talking about. Sorry to be the wet blanket but let’s cool the jets a bit and see more.

On the podcast this week I thought this line looked a little too rich but with more thought and a rewatch of their matches last week, Rogue look exactly like they did in Summer and at Worlds while throwing in some new champions. If that’s the case then Misfits are going to be hard pressed to beat this team.

My Picks:

Moneyline: Rogue -256 (1.28 units)

 


Team Vitality +165 vs Fnatic -222

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -114 / under -115)

Kill Spread: +5.5 @ -110 / -5.5 @ -119

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 14.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -127 / under -102)

I was expecting a little more out of Vitality than we saw in their opening week but they were another one of these teams that caught a few weird games and it’s tough to judge anybody on that. They were building leads for themselves and struggled to close but then won the game where they trailed. Those that have been reading my material for awhile understand that I place a higher emphasis on strong early games. If you can consistently build leads for yourself, show strong individual lane performances, and get the pace of the game moving in your favor, that you’ll have success long term. It’s going to look bad in the cases where you jump out to a lead and struggle to close like Vitality have but I’d rather a team do that than a team rely on scaling or worse, opponent error. It’s much easier to fix closing technique than to “teach” or develop organic, early advantages.

Fnatic have historically been slow starters and it looked as if that was going to be the case yet again after two AWFUL performances in their first two games. On Sunday Fnatic redeemed themselves with a decisive win to silence some of the critics. However, I’m not buying that all their problems are solved with one win.

I’m taking a small position with Vitality here. Individually these players all delivered strong performances, they had leads in two of their losses which is more repeatable than making a comeback win, which they also did. I was also very bullish on them in my pre-season evaluation which I tend to stick to unless I have a good reason not to for the first couple of weeks.

My Picks:

Moneyline: Team Vitality +165 (0.5 units)

 


LCS Lock-In Tournament

Semifinals – Day 1

 

100 Thieves +135 (+1.5 maps @ -167, +2.5 @ -556, -1.5 @ +308, -2.5 @ +797)

vs

Cloud 9 -164 (-1.5 maps @ +128, -2.5 @ +375, +1.5 @ -435, +2.5 @ -2000)

 

Total Maps Played: 3.5 (over -303 / under +226), 4.5 (over +170 / under -222)

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -111 / under -118)

Kill Spread: +5.5 @ -132 / -5.5 @ +101

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 13.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -103 / under -127)

Each of these teams has looked to be in great form but each had a game that made you scratch your head as well.

Going into this tournament I had high hopes for 100 Thieves (more on that in a minute…) and they have exceeded those. They look incredibly polished and you can tell that the continuity of having four of the five players on a team last year is paying off early in 2021 while other teams get situated.

Cloud 9 I had more questions for. Would Perkz take this tournament seriously? How would Fudge adjust to pro play? Could Zven step up after a very rough end to the 2020 season? etc. Obviously Cloud 9 are talented but I was more skeptical than most about whether they’d come out that gates firing on all cylinders. They’ve had a few hiccups here and there, primarily Fudge who has looked a bit out of his league in all but the last couple of games. For what it’s worth I think he’ll be fine but there’s reason to be concerned for this tournament, right now.

I like 100 Thieves here and think this is a good enough number to back them if I had no other positions but I do.

In my Pre-Season Team-by-Team Outlook and Futures Portfolio I outlined my gameplan to attack this tournament through the futures market. While it didn’t go exactly the way I’d planned I’m still looking to be in good shape and this is a great opportunity and surprisingly good number to hedge if I so choose. Let’s get a refresher on my positions:

  • Team Liquid to win outright @ +220 (6 units to win 19.2)
  • 100 Thieves to win outright @ +700 (3.75 units to win 30)
  • TSM to win outright @ +500 (3 units to win 18)
  • CLG to win outright @ +2500 (1 unit to win 26)

The plan originally was essentially to fade Group B altogether, including Cloud9 who I thought had a chance to look a little shaky early on in 2021 with all the moving parts. With a total exposure of 13.75 units on outrights, I stand to net 5.45 units on a Liquid win and 16.25 units on a 100 Thieves win. With that in mind I have a few options on how to play this:

  • Hedge out of 100 Thieves now: This would entail a 6.15 unit bet on the Cloud 9 moneyline here to cover the cost of my futures play. 100T Win = potential net win on a 100 Thieves outright tournament win  drops to 10.1 units, 100T Loss = net of zero units. If 100 Thieves were to pull this one out, I could potentially hedge against either opponent in finals with 10.1 units of leverage remaining after the Cloud 9 hedge loss.
  • Partially hedge out of 100 Thieves.
  • Let it ride.

Spoiler alert for tomorrow: I think Liquid are going to beat EG but it’s by no means a sure thing.

If I were to end up with Liquid vs 100 Thieves in the finals AFTER a hedge on Cloud 9 I’d actually owe on Liquid (5.45 net on TL outright – 6.15 for C9 hedge = -0.7 units) but I’d essentially be holding a 100 Thieves +910 ticket which would allow me to lock in somewhere in the ball park of ~2.5 units guaranteed profit by taking Liquid at anything around the -200 mark which is what I’d assume they enter the series priced at.

If Evil Geniuses were to beat Liquid after a Cloud 9 hedge and we get 100 Thieves vs Evil Geniuses I’d assume 100 Thieves would be small favorites in that series and we could get an even better guaranteed hedge profit.

The worst case scenario would be a hedge on Cloud 9 AND an Evil Geniuses victory in which case we’d be playing the final straight up with no stake in the game but down my Liquid futures for a net of -6 units but we’d have the benefit of assessing that situation tomorrow AFTER knowing the result of this series (current line: EG +184 / Liquid -227).  If C9 were to win Friday and I’d played the hedge on them, I could consider a position on EG.

A lot of people don’t like the idea of hedging or taking profits on positions because they think it diminishes the value of the original wager but part of my strategy for small tournaments like this is to use the futures market as way to flex your capital and make it work for you by having a good read on the sequencing and overall result of the tournament. You can tell the story you think will happen via plays on certain teams like I did in this case by fading Group B entirely.

Anyway here’s how it breaks down:

Hedge C9 6.15 units –> if C9 win,  it covers my 100T futures for net zero leaving Liquid leverage 5.45 units.

Hedge C9 6.15 units –> if 100T win, lost 6.15 on the hedge but leaves  10.1 units 100T leverage remaining for final

If C9 were to win I can hedge against Liquid tomorrow for 1.92 units to cover my futures exposure entirely leaving us with a worst case scenario of net zero on futures and on a Liquid win I’d have 3.53 units (5.45 minus 1.92) worth of Liquid leverage in the finals regardless of opponent.

TL:DR – It make sense to take profits on my 100 Thieves position by hedging out via Cloud 9. This leaves me with the ability to get out of my futures positions entirely tomorrow if Cloud 9 manage to win for a net zero and if 100 Thieves win I can guarantee a minimum profit on the tournament of 3.53 units (+25.672% ROI) with a maximum potential profit of 10.1 units (73.45% ROI).

 

My Picks:

HEDGE: Cloud 9 moneyline -164 (6.15 units)

 

If I had no prior stake in this series I’d take a light position on the 100 Thieves moneyline, +1.5 maps, -1.5 maps, and -2.5 maps (obviously using the +1.5 to cover your other positions).

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

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